Tourism Development Scenarios

Strategic Environmental Assessment

for the Tourism Sector,
Cambodia

October 2007
(Draft for discussion purpose only)

The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the
views and policies of the Asian Development Bank, or its Board of Governors or the
governments they represent.

The Asian Development Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this
publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use.

Use of the term “country” does not imply any judgment by the author or the Asian
Development Bank as to the legal or other status of any territorial entity.
Table of Contents

Table of Contents.............................................................................................2
Development Scenarios...................................................................................3
Scenario 1: Strict Ecotourism development focus for all attractions outside
Siem Reap ...................................................................................................3
Scenario 2: Balance of ecotourism and guided development.......................5
Scenario 3: Focus on Siem Reap / status quo for development outside ......6
Growth Scenarios ............................................................................................7
Scenario 1: Growth of +5% per year ...........................................................8
Scenario 2; growth rates at 20% annually ..................................................10
Scenario 3; growth rates at 30% annually. .................................................13
Implications of the various development and growth scenarios .....................16
Scenario 1; Strict Ecotourism development focus for all attractions outside
Siem Reap .................................................................................................16
Scenario 2: Balance of ecotourism and guided development.....................18
Scenario 3; Focus on Siem Reap / status quo for development outside ....20
Summary of scenarios ...................................................................................22
Comparison of scenarios............................................................................22

2
Development Scenarios

Scenarios are used to present the possible outcomes of policies or courses of

actions. By presenting hypothetical situations based on projections or
extrapolation from the current trends and known baseline the various
outcomes can be compared.

To compare possible outcomes for Cambodia tourism three scenarios

representing alternative development strategies and growth rates have been
considered. These scenarios range from the “do nothing” high growth
approach to a tightly controlled development strategy with limited growth.
Each of these scenarios have associated environmental and economic
impacts that need to be considered. The Government of Cambodia has
outlined a goal for high growth in tourism which will most certainly be
economically beneficial in the short term. However, how long the growth can
be sustained and the attendant impacts that may result need to be
considered.

The presentation of scenarios attempts to determine the actual outcome of

development strategies including the events and trends that are outside the
control of the government. These externalities include world economic and
tourism trends, safety and security factors as well as the vagaries of the
tourism market.

Scenario 1: Strict Ecotourism development focus for all attractions

outside Siem Reap

In this approach ecotourism is advocated as the primary focus for all core
attractions in each of the selected areas outside Siem Reap with the latter
being developed for culture and heritage. The study areas would have
development of tourism focused on very tightly controlled, low-density
facilities aimed at the “ecotourism” market. The focus for development is on
small-scale facilities catering to visitors to the nature-based attractions. These
facilities would be associated with core natural attractions and would rely on
the maintenance of the integrity of these attractions to sustain visitor
satisfaction and provide the setting for a range of activities.

The types of developments would be visitor services associated with the core
attractions including interpretation and other nature-related activities. The
accommodation would be low-density ecolodge-style appropriate to the
setting and built following strict guidelines regarding waste management and
impact on the area. The restrictions for developing facilities at the core
attractions will be stringent, with strict guidelines and will require very close
management. Product quality levels will be high.

Where appropriate and feasible, local villages would be involved in the

development with the focus on encouraging small to medium enterprises and

3
locally owned businesses. Activities associated with the core attractions are
an important component of this scenario with treks, river trips, elephant rides,
cycling, snorkeling, diving all serving as important means to lengthen visitor
stay and increase spending.

The core ecotourism assets associated with each area are promoted as
offering opportunities for ecotourism. Development of visitor facilities and
infrastructure would be focused on these main attractions. The key areas and
core assets in each area to serve as the focus for development are as follows:

North-East:
• Kratie; Dolphin Pools
• Stung Treng; Ramsar site, Phanet waterfall and Anlung Cheuteal
dolphin pools
• Ratanakiri; Yeak Loam Lake, Virachey National Park, O Sen Le
Waterfall
• Mondulkiri; Bou Sra waterfall, Sre Pok Forest,

South-West:
• Kampot; Teuk Chu Waterfall, Bokor National Park, Phnom Chnork
Cave
• Kep; Koh Tonsay island, Ang Keng beach, Oukasa forest
• Sihanoukville; Ream national park, Koh Rong, Kbal Chhay rapids
• Koh Kong; Cardamom mountains, Aural Wildlife Sanctuary, Phnom
Prah mountain

The focus for ecotourism development in this scenario is to provide access

and facilities at each of these attraction areas. In this style of development the
impacts from establishment of tourism facilities will be very much reduced with
stringent requirements and guidelines for establishing infrastructure. The
management of the impacts from each facility would be geared for each
facility to be very much self-contained in terms of dealing with waste and other
environmental impacts.

The main market targeted for this scenario is small group and individual
ecotourist interested in the nature and cultural attractions of the selected
areas. Wildlife viewing opportunities form an important part of the overall
product offering as does providing well-managed natural settings for
recreation and accommodation. The provision of high quality interpretive
services and guiding for the attractions and the activities forms an important
part of this scenario. In spite of the relatively lower numbers of visitors, with
high quality infrastructure and facilities, the visitors are encouraged to stay
longer in the destination.

In the north-east opportunities for viewing dolphins and engaging in treks and
river trips are important components for this scenario. The stability and health
of the dolphin population is an important consideration as this is one of the
core attractions for the area. Access to the national parks and a range of
settings for recreation such as treks, river trips and elephant rides is also very

4
important and this will rely on the management capacity of the responsible
authorities.

In the south-west, the overall quality of the beach, coral reefs, national parks
and islands will be a major consideration for the success of this strategy.
Continued loss of mangroves, development of beach areas and illegal logging
will seriously affect the quality of the visitor experience.

Development of the urban areas would proceed following the existing urban
plans and based on the provincial development committee recommendations.

Scenario 2: Balance of ecotourism and guided development

The second scenario is one that provides a balance of development focusing
on ecotourism development at the high priority/high potential nature attraction
areas and guided development for the other areas.

The aim of this strategy is to develop a range of attractions and settings to

cater to a wide range of interests and to provide high quality attractions for the
ecotourism market. The developments at the main attractions are to be based
on the ecotourism strategy and following the principles of ecotourism and will
be low density, high quality and appropriate to the setting. In the urban areas,
development is to follow urban plans and to adhere to guidelines that ensure
the cities provide a livable and functional setting for the inhabitants and an
attractive locale for visitors. The urban plans are to be clearly defined
documents for all agencies to follow.

At the core attractions, the development focus is on providing visitor facilities

including interpretation and information and a range of settings for recreation.
The provision of high quality activities with a nature focus will encourage
longer stays and higher spending by visitors.

The development of a range of recreational settings also extends to the

provision of public access to attractions such as beaches where facilities are
established to provide for domestic and general visitor use. Access, waste
management and provision of basic service and visitor infrastructure are
important tasks of the local councils to ensure that these areas are developed
in a holistic manner.

At the core attractions, carrying capacities are determined and visitor numbers
monitored to ensure that impacts are within acceptable limits of change. By
providing a range of settings, visitors have options to seek the setting that
suits the experience they desire. High use zones are provided with levels of
infrastructure that can cater to the numbers. Waste management at all sites is
a key concern and dealing with this involves integrated solutions among the
responsible agencies.

The focus for investment in this scenario is to encourage small enterprises at

the local level as well as medium to large investment in the urban areas.

5
Management of the core attractions is crucial to the success of this scenario
and the responsible agencies are actively involved in the development
planning as well as sharing in the benefits from increasing visitation.

The target market for this scenario is ecotourists seeking adventure and
nature experiences in northeast Cambodia. These are generally willing to stay
longer and will spend more per visit. The focal areas for ecotourism
development are the dolphin pools, national parks, and nature attractions of
the northeast and the beaches, islands and the national parks of the
southwest. The average length of stay for the international tourists is 2-4
nights in the north-east and 2-3 nights in the southwest.

The domestic market is also viewed as an important market and appropriate

facilities and access to attractions are provided to cater to their needs. The
focal areas for domestic tourism are the south-west beach areas and the
waterfalls and rapids of the north-east. The average length of stay for the
domestic market is 1-2 nights with the highest numbers occurring during
public holidays and weekends.

Scenario 3: Focus on Siem Reap / status quo for development outside

In this scenario the focus is on developing Siem Reap as a world class
tourism destination and letting the rest of the areas develop on their own
according to private sector investment.

This type of development in the study areas would be based on the guidance
provided by the local councils and would essentially be focused on the main
urban areas as well as the core attractions in each area. In the absence of
clear guidelines for planning, the developments would be loosely planned and
would follow the individual investors themes and styles.

The ownership would be local business people with some outside investment
coming in for the larger centres or the more significant core attractions.

The core attractions such as the wildlife and nature would still be very
important and developments would tend to be focused around these assets.
Promotion of the assets would be focused on appealing to a wide range of
tourists with the interest of increasing overall numbers to each area. In the
northeast, this would result in developments in the vicinity of the dolphin pools
and at the main centres serving as gateways to the natural attractions (Ban
Lung, Sen Monoram and Stung Treng). The main attractions would require
expanded vehicle handling and visitor facilities to cater to the increasing
demands.

In the southwest, the beach areas would be the main focus for development
with the areas allocated for public access reducing as development demand
increases. This would result in a concentration of publicly accessible beaches
to smaller areas that would be prone to overcrowding and result in high
impacts to the beaches. Waterfall areas, rapids and rivers would continue to

6
cater to the predominantly domestic market with development of facilities
according to the increasing demand.

In the short to medium term, the developments would appeal to the general
tourist and sight-seeing visitor as well as to the domestic visitor. A variety of
additional activities would need to be developed to cater to the demands of
the visitors at each site and these would be focused in the urban and peri-
urban areas. More entertainment outlets and recreational areas would need to
be developed.

The market for this type of development would be the general interest
(predominantly group) tourist and there would be a need to market widely to
meet the supply-side development model. Group tours and bus-based
holidays would be promoted. The average length of stay for the northeast
would likely be in the range of 2-3 nights and for the southwest, 2 nights. This
type of market would be more budget conscious and overall spending per
person would be relatively low.

Waste management will continue to be a problem at all attractions as well as

in the urban areas. Providing adequate collection services and disposal
facilities will be an on-going problem. In the absence of development controls
and planning, developments in urban areas will not be coordinated and may
detract from the overall attractiveness of the town areas. Core attraction sites
will likely be impacted to an extent that tourism will be affected in the medium
term. Lacking sufficient waste management regimes, overcrowded public
beach areas will eventually be avoided and overloaded waterfall areas will
face a similar fate.

Impacts from external (to tourism) developments on the upper Mekong river
will potentially have an impact on the core attractions such as the dolphins
and the flooded forest. Without guidelines and adequate protection for coastal
zones and forested areas, these attractions will be developed and lose their
value as tourism attractions.

Growth Scenarios
For each of the three development scenarios considered an associated
growth scenario has also been considered. The current international and
domestic tourist arrival figures used in calculating the projections were
obtained from the various provincial tourism offices. These figures are based
on arrivals at the various attractions as well as the numbers of visitors staying
in hotels. As there is no differentiation between day trip visitors and overnight
visitors these figures provide an indication of the overall projected demand.
However, because the figures are combined, caution is needed when using
these figures to interpret demand for hotel rooms at a particular destination.

7
Scenario 1: Growth of +5% per year

With the emphasis on strict ecotourism development, the annual growth for
this scenario will stay at around 5%. This is mainly due to the size of the
current ecotourism market and the scale of development for all the various
facilities. This growth rate is closer to the current world levels but is
considerably lower than the current 20% growth rate Cambodia is
experiencing. At 5% per year, the tourism growth is thus lower than what
Cambodia has experienced in the years leading up to 2006, but still consistent
with the current world levels. This is not an unrealistic growth rate as
competition from neighbouring countries could come into play or there might
not be the necessary tourism investment in the areas outside Siem Reap. The
benefit of this lower rate of growth is that it allows local councils more time to
establish needed infrastructure and visitor facilities. The projected
international visitor numbers according to the different study areas is
presented in Figure 1.

Projected internatonal visitor growth of

selected centres (5% annual)

100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000 Kratie
60,000 Stung Treng
50,000 Ratanakiri
40,000 Mondulkiri
Kampot
30,000
Sihanoukville
20,000
10,000
0
06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Figure 1 Projected International arrivals (5% growth).

Given these growth projections, waste management services as provided by

the existing urban infrastructure should be sufficient to manage the attendant
environmental impacts at each area. The additional demands placed on the
infrastructure are surmountable and should be able to be accommodated in
existing urban plans.

The levels of visitation to the core attractions are generally well within
projected carrying capacity limits. However, these numbers may not be
sufficient to ensure economic viability. For example, the Virachey National
Park requires increases in visitation by at least 50% to cover the salary of the

8
ecotourism liason officers and increases by at least 100% to provide
additional funds to cover the operational costs of park management1.

Currently, domestic tourism at all areas constitutes anywhere from 33% to

97% of all recorded arrivals. In the case of the higher percentages, many of
these records are likely due to large numbers of domestic day trip visitors.
According to the WTO definition for tourists2, technically these visitors should
not be counted in tourism figures. Nonetheless, these relatively large numbers
represent an existing demand and result in an impact that local councils must
accommodate through provision of appropriate visitor facilities.

Based on the existing MOT domestic visitor numbers, a 5% annual growth

projection has been considered Figure 2. This figure is not unrealistic and
given the baseline visitor numbers provides a steady growth that can be
accommodated.

Projected growth of domestic tourism arrivals at

selected centres (5%)
500,000
450,000
400,000
Kratie
350,000
300,000 Stung Treng
250,000 Ratanakiri
200,000 Mondulkiri
150,000 Kampot
100,000 Sihanoukville
50,000
0
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20

Figure 2 Projected domestic visitors in selected areas (5% growth).

Based on the projected overall growth the economic returns at the attractions
will likely be low unless entrance fees can be adjusted upwards for both
domestic and international visitors. Based on the existing hotel supply, there
is currently sufficient room capacity in all locations except for Kampot3 to
cover the projected growth until 2015 (Figure 3). Given the development focus
of this scenario, there will probably be a shift from existing hotel to more
ecotourism-based accommodation at the core attractions and this may result
in some existing hotels and guesthouses losing business. Predication of room

1
SNV, 2006. Report on the Northeast Cambodia Regional Workshop on Ecotourism Strategy
Development, Kratie, 2006. Netherlands Development Organisation.
2
Tourists are anyone traveling away from their normal place of residence for at least one
night.
3
The shortfall in rooms needs further investigation as these figures are likely skewed by the
large numbers of domestic day trip visitors to the area who do not require a hotel room.

9
demand is based on all arrivals (both international and domestic) and
assuming a two night stay for international and a one night stay for domestic
visitors. The assumption for room occupancy is that 70% of international
visitors are twin sharing and 90% of domestic visitors are twin sharing.

Existing hotel rooms vs projected demand (5%

growth)
3,000
2,500
2,000
Rooms

1,500
2006
1,000 2010
2015
500
0
Kr St Ra Mo Ka Sih
ati un ta nd mp an
e g Tr nak u ot ou
i lki kv
en ri ri ille
g

Figure 3 Accommodation requirements to 2015 (5% growth).

Scenario 2; growth rates at 20% annually

As Scenario 2 proposes a development of both the ecotourism sites as well

as the other attractions, a more robust growth rate of 20% is postulated. The
government goals for tourism growth are rates of 20-30% annually to 2015.
As this has been the rate of growth over the past 5 years leading up to 2006,
this would appear to be achievable. However, compared to world growth rates
and rates of growth in the region, this is still quite a high rate.

Based on the existing arrivals at the study areas, the 20% projected growth of
international arrivals to 2015 is illustrated in Figure 4. As can be seen the
main recipient of the increased numbers would be Sihanoukville in the
southwest. The other areas and especially the northeast would receive
relative increases but because of the low base arrivals, by 2015 the arrivals
would only be around 40-70,000 per year at each attraction. In Mondulkiri,
projected levels are still quite low but this would likely change with improved
access to Sen Monoram.

10
 Projected internatonal visitor growth of
selected centres (20% annual)

350,000

300,000

250,000 Kratie
Stung Treng
200,000
Ratanakiri
150,000 Mondulkiri
Kampot
100,000
Sihanoukville
50,000

0
06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
Figure 4 Projected growth of international visitors (20%).

Domestic visitors exceed international at all the study sites but as outlined
previously many of these are day trip visitors with the bulk of the visitation
occurring on weekends and public holidays. Projections of growth in domestic
tourism can thus be misleading especially if using the projected figures to
predict hotel demand. Using a scenario of 20% annual growth for domestic
visitors results in large increases at Kampot and Sihanoukville, moderate
increases at Kratie and Ratanakiri and slight increases at Stung Treng and
Mondulkiri Figure 5. With improvements in the road access to Mondulkiri, it is
conceivable that these figures would likely increase at a higher rate.

Projected growth of domestic tourism arrivals at

selected centres (20%)

1,600,000
1,400,000
Kratie
1,200,000
Stung Treng
1,000,000
Ratanakiri
800,000
Mondulkiri
600,000
Kampot
400,000
Sihanoukville
200,000
0
06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Figure 5 Project domestic tourism growth (20%).

11
While sustaining this growth rate may be somewhat optimistic, especially in
the medium to long term, it warrants consideration in terms of the potential
impacts for the attractions at each area. As the domestic visitation tends to
occur during public holidays and week-ends, the numbers of visitors are
concentrated during these periods and can result in higher impacts and
demands on visitor facilities. Conversely, the mid-week periods and non-
holiday periods do give the attractions some “recovery” and provide site
managers with the time to maintain and repair facilities.

The 20% growth projections for both international and domestic visitors are
important to consider in terms of predicting demand for hotel rooms and
planning for the infrastructure required to handled these numbers. Based on
existing demand and using the same assumptions for hotel occupancy and
length of stay4, projections for hotel demand have been calculated. The
demand for hotel rooms in 2010 and 2015 is illustrated in Figure 6.

Existing hotel rooms vs projected demand

(20% int'l, 20% domestic growth)

3,000
2,500
2,000
Rooms

1,500
2006
1,000 2010
500 2015

0
Kr St Ra Mo Ka Sih
ati un tan nd mp an
e gT ak ulki ot ou
re i ri ri kv
ng i ll e

Figure 6 Existing hotel rooms versus projected demand.

In all cases, except for Kampot5, the current number of rooms in each area is
sufficient to meet the demand based on 20% annual growth up until 2010.
However, only in Mondulkiri and Sihanoukville is the current room supply
sufficient to cater to the projected demand in 2015. Thus, in the other areas
(Kratie, Stung Treng and Ratankiri) there would have to be additional
accommodation built to meet the projected demand. The implications of these
additional rooms are increased stress on existing urban infrastructure and
services.

4
International visitors; 2 nights and 70% twin sharing, and Domestic visitors; 1 night and 90%
twin sharing.
5
As highlighted previously, the demand figures for Kampot are misleading due to the large
numbers of day trip visitors.

12
Scenario 3; growth rates at 30% annually.

Scenario 3 allows development of the tourism industry to proceed unrestricted

and essentially unguided. This growth of tourism postulated for this type of
development is 30%. Given that current world tourism growth is 4-5% per year
and the growth in the Asia-Pacific region 8% per year, a projected annual rate
of 30% is a very high rate of growth. This rate is however, the upper limit that
has been indicated by the Government of Cambodia as a target for tourism
growth over the next 10 years. Therefore, it is important to examine the
implications of this rate of growth based on the existing numbers of tourists
and the existing supply of services.

Based on the existing international visitor numbers the 30% projected growth
in arrivals to 2015 at the various study sites is illustrated in Figure 7. At this
rate of growth, Sihanoukville is poised to receive the largest relative growth
reaching close to 600,000 foreign visitors by 2015. With the exception of
Mondulkiri, the other areas show relatively moderate growth but still manage
to reach levels ranging from 100,000 to 175,000 foreign visitors by 2015. Due
to the low starting numbers in Mondulkiri, even with the projected 30% annual
growth, visitor numbers do not exceed 20,000 by 2015.

Projected internatonal visitor growth of

selected centres (30% annual)

700,000

600,000

500,000 Kratie
Stung Treng
400,000
Ratanakiri
300,000 Mondulkiri
Kampot
200,000
Sihanoukville
100,000

0
06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Figure 7 Projected growth of international arrivals (30%).

The growth of domestic tourism is also viewed as an important component of

overall tourism growth. With current domestic visitation higher than the
international arrivals further growth at the same rate will result in large
increases at all attractions. In order to maintain domestic tourism growth rates
of 30% per annum, the domestic economy would also have to be growing at a
high rate. This type of economic growth may not be feasible, thus projections
of 30% per year for domestic travel may be unrealistic. Nonetheless, for the

13
purposes of this scenario Figure 8 illustrates the domestic tourism growth at a
rate of 30% per year.

Projected growth of domestic tourism arrivals at

selected centres (30%)

3,500,000
3,000,000 Kratie
2,500,000 Stung Treng
2,000,000 Ratanakiri
1,500,000 Mondulkiri
1,000,000 Kampot
500,000 Sihanoukville

0
06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Figure 8 Domestic tourism growth projection (30%)

Based on a 30% annual rate of growth, visitation to all the study areas, with
the exception of Mondulkiri and Stung Treng, shows substantial increases.
The most significant increases in arrivals are to Kampot with just over 3
million visitors per year by 2015 and Sihanoukville with almost 2 million
visitors per year for the same period. Domestic arrivals to Kratie and
Ratankiri by 2015 exceed 500,000 visitors per year and in the case of Kratie
reach almost 700,000 visitors. The projected number of domestic visitors
Stung Treng in 2015 are just below 200,000 with Mondulkiri receiving just
over 125,000.

These types of increases will place huge demands on the existing

infrastructure and visitor services. At areas such as Kampot and
Sihanoukville, it is probable that the majority of the domestic arrivals are day
trip visitors traveling mainly on week-ends and during public holidays. This
concentration of visitors will have a large impact on the attraction and place
huge demand on any facilities put in place to handle the resulting waste.

At other areas where the main domestic attractions are waterfalls or rapids,
the impacts of these levels of visitors will likely result in severe degradation
unless proactive measures are put in place to disperse the visitor loads.

The implication of this level of tourism growth on the supply of

accommodation is quite significant. Based on a rate of 30% growth for both
international and domestic tourism there would need to be extensive
development to supply the needed rooms by 2015 (Figure 9).

14
 Existing hotel rooms vs projected demand
(30% int'l, 30% domestic growth)

6,000
5,000
4,000
Rooms

3,000
2006
2,000 2010
1,000 2015

0
Kr St Ra Mo Ka Sih
ati un ta n m an
e gT na dulk po ou
re kir iri t kv
ng i ille

Figure 9 Projected demand for hotel rooms versus existing supply.

Only in Mondulkiri does the existing (2006) supply of rooms meet the
projected 30% annual growth of tourism to 2015. In all other areas there
would need to be at least a 50% increase in the in the number of rooms to
meet the 2015 projected demand. Note, however, that the huge shortfall of
rooms for the case of Kampot is likely due to the large number of domestic
visitors recorded for this area. As the vast majority of these arrivals are on a
day trip excursion to the river or waterfall, most do not require
accommodation. Thus, these demand figures probably do not represent the
actual demand and to accurately determine domestic demand, more
information on the market characteristics is required. Similarly, the relatively
large numbers of domestic visitors to Sihanoukville will also skew the
projected hotel demand figures upwards and more detailed information for
Sihanoukville should be collected.

15
Implications of the various development and growth scenarios

Scenario 1; Strict Ecotourism development focus for all attractions outside Siem Reap
5% Growth
North-east
• The focus for tourism development is on the core attractions; Kratie dolphin pools, the Ramsar site, Yeak Loam lake, Virachey
National Park, Mondulkiri water falls with visitor centres to guide the ecotourism delivery
• Steady growth in international tourism numbers and while numbers remain relatively low, visitors are willing to spend on better
accommodation and other activities.
• Domestic demand is still seasonal (holidays and week-ends) focused mainly on the Mondulkiri waterfalls, the rapids at Kampi
and visiting Ratankiri
• Current management able to handle the increased numbers without significant impact. Limited benefits accrue to local villages
associated with the core attractions.
• External impacts to dolphin pools a serious concern for the viability of this attraction. Concerns at the other attractions include
loss of forest and encroaching farm land as tourism is unable to provide employment
• Waste management strategies can control waste at the main attraction sites.
• Waste management in urban areas continues to be an issue.
• Generally, the existing accommodation is sufficient to cater to the growth. New ecotourism lodges provide higher value
accommodation at the attractions.
• Increasing visitor numbers provide additional revenue for park management and site managers, although the numbers based
on a 5% growth rate do not cover the costs of operation. Limited additional funds going to the villages
• Improvements in access stimulate increases in arrivals, although from a relatively low base.
• Low impacts from tourism but also low economic sustainability for tourism.

16
South West
• The focus for tourism development is on the core attractions;
• Kampot; Teuk Chu Waterfall, Bokor National Park, Phnom Chnork Cave
• Koh Tonsay island, Ang Keng beach, Oukasa forest
• Ream national park, Koh Rong, Kbal Chhay rapids
• Cardamom mountains, Aural Wildlife Sanctuary, Phnom Prah mountain
• Steady growth in international tourism numbers and while numbers remain relatively low, visitors are willing to spend on better
accommodation and other activities in the Cardamom mountains and well-preserved islands.
• Domestic demand is still seasonal (holidays and week-ends) focused mainly on the Teuk Chu waterfall, Ang Keng beach and
the beaches at Sihanoukville.
• Current management able to handle the increased numbers without significant impact. Only limited benefits accrue to local
villages associated with the core attractions.
• External impacts to beaches a serious concern for the viability of these attractions. Concerns at the other attractions include
loss of forest, poaching and encroaching farm land as tourism is unable to provide employment
• Waste is a problem, but waste management strategies can control waste at the main attraction sites.
• Waste management in urban areas continues to be an issue.
• Generally, the existing accommodation is sufficient to cater to the growth. New ecotourism lodges provide higher value
accommodation at the attractions.
• Increasing visitor numbers provide additional revenue for park management and site managers, although the numbers based
on a 5% growth rate do not cover the costs of operation. Limited additional funds going to the villages
• Improvements in access stimulate increases in arrivals, although from a relatively low base.
• Low impacts from tourism but also low economic sustainability for tourism

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Scenario 2: Balance of ecotourism and guided development
20% growth
North-east
• Continued rapid growth in international arrivals with focus on ecotourism activities and accommodation at the core attractions
• Rapid growth in domestic arrivals results in increasing impacts on core attractions, mainly the rapids and waterfalls during
peak periods
• Management of visitor numbers at all site by developing different settings to disperse loads and time of visit. Numbers are
generally within carrying capacity limits for the main nature attractions but approaching upper limits
• External impacts on the core attractions a serious threat in view of robust tourism business and current investments (threats to
the dolphins and to the forest and wildlife)
• Increased employment through a number of small businesses and local lodges. Possibility of viable community-based
enterprises.
• Waste management at core attractions a key issue due to the increased arrivals. Integration of waste management with urban
treatment is required to handle waste.
• Waste management in the urban areas a big issue due to increased demands on the urban infrastructure. Upgraded facilities
and resources (human and financial) are required.
• In most cases, accommodation is sufficient for the increased arrivals. Shifts in demand at core attractions to ecolodges and
more specialized high value accommodation.
• Increasing management capacity at the protected areas and core attractions sites is a priority to handle the increased
numbers and the management demands.
• Public access to core attractions for domestic tourism is managed through improved visitor facilities to deal with the high
usage and the resulting impacts.
• Development of quality public use zones cater to both domestic and international visitors
• Protected area revenues do not cover costs of operation, but options exist for concession arrangements, longer stays and
alternative income generating strategies through activities and sale of services.
• Impacts from tourism have increased, but can be managed and the overall economic benefits have increased.
South-west
• Continued rapid growth in international arrivals with focus on ecotourism activities (forests, trekking, wildlife viewing) and

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 ecotourism accommodation (especially in the Cardamoms and Koh Kong). Also beach and coastal based tourism.
• Rapid growth in domestic arrivals results in increasing impacts on core attractions, (rivers, waterfalls and beaches) especially
during peak periods
• Visitor numbers are managed by developing a variety of settings to disperse loads. Many sites are approaching established
carrying capacity limits for the main attractions
• External impacts from coastal zone alteration and loss of forest and wildlife place a serious threat on the core attractions in
view of robust tourism business and current investments
• Many local employment opportunities available in lodges and small businesses associated with core attractions. Impacts
managed through guidelines and licensing.
• Waste management at core attractions a key issue due to the increased arrivals. Integration of waste management with urban
treatment is required to handle waste.
• Waste management in the urban areas a large issue due to increased demands on the urban infrastructure. Additional
facilities and resources (human and financial) are required.
• In most cases, accommodation is sufficient for the increased arrivals. Shifts in demand at core attractions to ecolodges and
more specialized high value accommodation (some older hotels lose business)
• Increasing management capacity at the protected areas and core attractions sites is required to handle the increased
numbers.
• Public access to core attractions (beaches and waterfalls) for domestic tourism provided through planned, improved visitor
facilities and services to deal with the high impacts.
• High quality public use zones cater to both domestic and international visitors
• Protected area revenues do not cover costs of operation, but options exist for longer stays and alternative income generating
strategies through activities and sale of services.
• Impacts from tourism have increased, but the economic benefits have also increased.

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Scenario 3; Focus on Siem Reap / status quo for development outside
30% growth
North-east
• Very high growth in international arrivals. Core attractions (especially the dolphin pools, forest resources and waterfalls) face
a situation of over-demand
• Very high growth in domestic arrivals places large stress on the core attractions (waterfalls and rapids), especially during
public holidays and week-ends
• Numbers at the core attractions exceed carrying capacities (critically during peak periods)
• External impacts on the core attractions are an important consideration given the high value of the core products to tourism.
• Waste management at the core attractions is a key issue that overwhelms site management capacity to deal with the
problem. This problem is particularly acute during public holidays and weekends.
• Urban waste management is a big issue as infrastructure is stretched to deal with the increased demands from new hotels
and facilities
• There is a shortfall in accommodation requiring new hotels and facilities to be built. Overbuilding places additional stress on
urban infrastructure and services. Town planning is placed under stress as the demands to build new accommodation
become acute.
• Public access to core attractions is limited as concessions are given to developers. This places higher stress on the areas
where public is allowed access
• Protected area and attraction site management lack the resources (human and financial) to handle the increased numbers
and the management challenges
• Impacts from tourism on the environment have increased dramatically. Some clients are beginning to avoid the core
attractions due to the crowds and the overall condition of the attraction.
• Potential decreases in numbers as visitors avoid attractions resulting in empty hotels that have been built to meet the growth
demands.
South-west
• Very high growth in international arrivals. Core attractions (especially the beaches and forests of Koh Kong; and the beaches
of Sihanoukville) experience high demand
• Very high growth in domestic arrivals places large stress on the core attractions (waterfalls and rapids of Kampot and the
beaches of Sihanoukville), especially during public holidays and week-ends

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• Numbers at the core attractions associated with rivers and waterfalls exceed carrying capacities (critically during peak
periods)
• The effect of the external impacts on the core attractions is an important consideration given the high value of the core
products
• Waste management at the core attractions is a key issue that may overwhelm site management capacity to deal with the
problem. This problem is particularly acute during public holidays and weekends.
• Urban waste management is a big issue as infrastructure is stretched to deal with the increased demands from new hotels
and facilities
• There is a shortfall in accommodation requiring new hotels and facilities to be built. Overbuilding places additional stress on
urban infrastructure and services. Town planning is placed under stress as the demands to build new accommodation
become acute.
• Public access to core attractions such as beaches is limited as concessions are given to developers. This places higher
stress on the areas where public is allowed access. Increasing occurrence of unplanned and un-serviced food and beverage
outlets result in more impact and more waste.
• Protected areas and attraction site management lack the resources (human and financial) to handle the increased numbers
and the management challenges
• Impacts from tourism on the environment have increased dramatically. Some clients are beginning to avoid the core
attractions due to the crowds and the overall condition of the attraction.
• Potential decreases in numbers as visitors avoid attractions resulting in empty hotels that have been built to meet the growth
demands.

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Summary of scenarios
Comparison of scenarios
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
5 % annual growth 20% annual growth 30% annual growth
Environmental High High Low
sustainability
Economic Low High High then decreasing
Sustainability
Benefit of Limited impact due to low growth. Focus on the core ecotourism High growth and creation of jobs
Scenario Focus on key ecotourism attractions and developing and investment opportunities
attractions, steady growth allowing ecotourism as a niche. Tourism as a major economic
adjustment to increases. Some Guided development for driver
local business opportunities. supporting attractions and
Ecotourism established as an infrastructure
important niche at core attractions. Tourism an important economic
driver
Disadvantage of Many areas remain Reliance on imported expertise Overdevelopment and potential
Scenario underdeveloped as focus is on and labour. Economic leakages oversupply of rooms.
core attractions only. Tourism not Eventual loss of business due to
a major factor in economic growth. deterioration of attraction quality

Major Waste disposal at core attractions. Increased waste at attraction sites High impact at attractions sites.
Environmental Waste disposal in urban areas and in urban areas Waste management.
issues Loss of forest and coastal areas to
development
Stress to urban setting from

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Other factors External impacts to core
attractions such as the dolphins
and the forest resources
Recommendations Focus on municipal and site waste
management strategies. Develop
capacity of local communities near
core attraction for ecotourism
External impacts on core
attractions that may affect the
viability of the attraction
Development of a range of
settings for visitors to disperse
loads
Support to improvement and
integration of waste management
services
overdevelopment.
External land use impacts on the
core attractions.
Improvement of waste
management and urban planning.
Strengthening of the capacity of
the attraction site management.
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