Early-Life, Long-Term, and Seasonal
Variations in Skid Resistance in
Flexible and Rigid Pavements
M. Alauddin Ahammed and Susan L. Tighe
Skidding contributes to up to 35% of wet weather accidents. Increased
temperature and surface wear and polishing may affect the available
friction and further increase skid-related accidents. Several studies have
attempted to examine and quantify these variations mostly with inade-
quate or inappropriate conclusions. The surface friction of both port-
land cement concrete (PCC) and asphalt concrete (AC) pavements was
measured monthly to determine the influencing factors and quantify the
seasonal fluctuation. Skid number (SN) and pertinent data of the Long-
Term Pavement Performance program were obtained for both PCC and
AC pavements, incorporating all geographic and climatic regions of the
United States and Canada, to determine the contributing factors and
quantify the long-term and early-life variations of surface friction. Sur-
face friction was shown to fluctuate as a result of ambient or pavement
temperature fluctuation at 0.35 British pendulum number per 1C change
in temperature. The effect of prior weather was shown to be insignifi-
cant. Following the construction, AC and PCC surface friction was
shown to increase by 5 SN in about 18 months and 4 SN in about
21⁄2 years. Skid resistance was shown to decrease thereafter at 0.27 SN
for AC and at 0.24 SN for PCC pavements per million vehicle passes.
Cumulative traffic passes, pavement age, speed, and temperature during
the testing and PCC pavement surface texture types were found to be sta-
tistically significant for the prediction of long-term surface friction. AC
pavement long-term surface friction was shown to be more sensitive, as
compared with PCC, to predominant climatic condition.
In the year 2000, 42,643 fatalities and about 2.9 million injuries
were reported from about 6.3 million traffic crashes on the U.S.
road network with an estimated $230.6 billion loss (1). In 2003,
2,766 people died, and another 222,455 were injured on Canadian
roads from a total of 156,904 police reported crashes, with an esti-
mated $25 billion loss (2). Skidding contributes to 15% to 35% of all
accidents and to 13.5% of fatal accidents during wet weather (3, 4).
Several past studies have indicated that skid-related accidents can
be reduced by an improvement in pavement surface friction (5). For
example, the wet-to-dry pavement accident ratio was shown to
increase sharply from 0.23 to about 0.7 as the skid number (SN),
measured at 64 km/h (SN64), drops below 41 (critical SN) (6). The
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200
University Avenue West, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1, Canada. Corresponding
Author: M. A. Ahammed, alauddinalam@hotmail.com.
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board,
No. 2094, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington,
D.C., 2009, pp. 112–120.
DOI: 10.3141/2094-12
112
wet-weather accidents were shown to decrease by 35% with a net
return of 540% after laying anti-skid surfacing at more than 2,000
sites in London (7). An improvement of average friction by 0.1 could
reduce wet accidents by 13% (7, 8).
The available surface friction may be affected significantly by
increased temperature. SN was shown to decrease by about 1.2 points
for an increase in temperature of 10°C (9). The average difference
of SN measured in winter and summer was shown to be 6 points (10).
Pavement surface friction also changes over time as a result of envi-
ronmental and traffic-related wear. Variation of surface friction with
time is therefore regarded as an important measure of pavement
deterioration (11). For safety and economy, the pavement should
exhibit sufficient friction over the service life, withstanding the
seasonal fluctuation and long-term wear and polishing. A small
number of research studies were devoted to this area but ended
with inadequate or inappropriate results, conclusions, and models.
This study is aimed at quantifying the seasonal and long-term vari-
ation of asphalt concrete (AC) and portland cement concrete (PCC)
pavements’ surface friction, including the early-life increase, and
to determine the influencing factors to aid highway engineers in
selecting the appropriate pavement surface.
RELEVANT RESEARCH
In a Pennsylvania study, SN64 was shown to decrease by 1.7 points
for a 7-day period without rain (dry spell). Models were developed
for short-term changes in surface friction, correlating the dry spell
factor (DSF) and pavement temperature or a function of rain (9).
However, the developed models show an increase in surface friction
in Pennsylvania but a decrease in North Carolina and Tennessee for
the same DSF and temperature. Skid resistance was shown to be the
lowest in summer and the highest in spring regardless of asphalt mix
types (12). A significant short-term variation in SN was found, with
low SN after a dry period that rejuvenated after rainfall. Models
were developed for predicting the low SN during fall from friction
measurement at any time during the year, with the hypothesis that
seasonal variations are caused by polishing of microtexture and wear
of macrotexture (13). Others, however, have found that seasonal and
short-term variations in SN occur as a result of temperature, rainfall,
and DSF.
Models were developed for long-term skid resistance variation
using 3-year data from two highways in Ontario, Canada. The model
for Highway 401 (Equation 1) indicated that a mix with higher
stability will exhibit higher skid resistance because of the mix’s
greater capability in resisting the coarse aggregate immersion in
Ahammed and Tighe 113

the matrix (14). In contrast, the positive sign associated with flow I1 through I5 = indicator variables for differences in mean SN
indicates that skid resistance will increase with increased flow. from one test pavement to another.

SN100 = 0.714 ( MS) + 0.356 ( flow ) + 1.048 ( voids )

A yearly decrease of 0.22 SN for rural roads and 0.26 SN for urban
roads was observed in a Maryland study. Surface friction was shown
40.904 to decrease by 1 SN for 0.56°C (1°F) increase in temperature (16).
+ − 17.323 (1)
[ EQT ( F )] 0.081 With this trend, the SN will drop from 50 to 0 (no friction) for an
increase in temperature from 5°C to 33°C (28°C change), which
seems to be unreasonable. A relationship between the surface fric-
where
tion [British pendulum number (BPN)] and temperature on an inter-
SN100 = SN at 100 km/h, mediately polished surface was developed as given by Equation 4
MS = Marshall stability, (17 ). The developed correlation indicates that skid resistance will
flow = Marshall flow (0.25 mm), decrease by 0.232 BPN for 1°K increase in temperature. However,
voids = voids in mix, and no correlation was found when combining all the unpolished with
EQT (F) = equivalent traffic (F = commercial vehicle equivalence completely laboratory-polished asphalt pavement surfaces, leaving
factor). the data and model in question.

The state of Wisconsin uses Equation 2 for the prediction of trans- BPN T = 125.2508 − 0.232 T (4)
versely tined PCC surface friction deterioration (15). The positive
sign-associated HV indicates that friction will increase with an
where T is temperature (°K) and BPNT equals BPN at temperature T.
increase in the percentages of heavy vehicles on the design lane.
A few other related studies are available in the published liter-
This may not be justified, because heavy vehicles with more and
ature but with similar deficiencies. Lack of logical interpretation
larger tires than those of passenger cars will cause greater surface
might have resulted in such deficient or conflicting findings and
wear and thereby further reduce the available surface friction.
models (18).
ln ( FN ) = 3.99 − 0.0419 ln ( LAVP ) − 0.00129 DOL
+ 0.004774 HV (2) OBJECTIVE AND SCOPE

where
FN = friction number at 60 km/h,
LAVP = summation of all vehicles expected to pass over during
the design life of the pavements (millions),
DOL = limestone, dolomite, or ankerite content of coarse
aggregate materials (percentage by weight), and
HV = percentage of heavy vehicles in design lane (% lane
per average daily traffic).
A model (Equation 3) was developed for the prediction of SN
with normalization of seasonal effects (10). The justification of the
variable
⎡ ⎛ 2π ⎞ ⎤
⎢sin ⎝⎜ 365 ⎠⎟ ⎥
⎣ ⎦
It has been seen that research on seasonal, early-life, and long-term
variations of pavement surface friction are scarce and mostly defi-
cient, with inadequate or inappropriate results, conclusions, or mod-
els. This research has attempted to closely evaluate these three aspects
to aid highway engineers in selecting the pavement surface with
appropriate skid resistance. More specifically, the objectives of this
paper are (a) to examine and quantify the effect of environmental fac-
tors, such as ambient and pavement temperatures, rainfall and DSF,
pavement type and mix properties, on wet pavement skid resistance
fluctuation month to month; (b) to quantity the early-life increase of
skid resistance; (c) to examine and quantify the effect of surface age,
traffic passes, asphalt and concrete mix properties, annual average
temperature, wet days, vehicle speed, climatic regions, and so forth,
on long-term performance; and (d) to develop performance models
for seasonal and long-term surface friction variations.

is not clear. Furthermore, it is completely illogical that the SN of a

particular pavement will vary with the SN of other pavements (vari-
DATA COLLECTION
ables I1 through I5).
The seasonal variation of pavement surface friction was measured
⎛ 2π ⎞
SN 64 = 32.28 − 0.14 ( temp5 ) + 0.031( RF5 ) − 0.66 sin ⎜ from February to October 2007 for six PCC and five AC pavement
⎝ 365 ⎟⎠
JD
surfaces. The PCC surfaces include smooth surface, burlap, broom,
and Astroturf dragged surfaces and exposed aggregate texture,
+ 13.53 I1 − 3.12 I 2 − 2.78 I 3 − 9.52 I 4 + 7.43 I 5 (3)
and longitudinal tined surfaces. Each surface texture configuration
consists of three specimens; measurements were taken on a total
where
of 18 concrete specimens. All specimens were prepared in the Cen-
SN64 = SN at 64 km/h, tre for Pavement and Transportation Technology (CPATT) labora-
temp5 = average of daily temperatures for the 5 days before tory at the University of Waterloo, Ontario, from standard 30 MPa
friction measurement, ready mix concrete used for PCC pavements. Fifteen AC surface
RF5 = cumulative rainfall over the 5-day period preceding course specimens were obtained from five sections, which con-
the measurement, tained aggregates from the same source and were constructed by
JD = Julian calendar day corresponding to the day of a single contractor in one season (same-age pavements). They
measurement, and included HL3 (two sections), Superpave®, stone mastic asphalt,
114
and polymer modified asphalt on the CPATT test track at the
Waterloo landfill site.
All specimens were exposed to the outside natural environ-
ment, and surface friction was measured monthly from February
to October 2007 using the British pendulum with the equipment
at roadside. For a few months, BPN was measured directly on the
AC road surfaces at midlane. The road is located at landfill and
was mostly closed for traffic during the testing period. The surface
texture was measured (with the sand patch method) time to time to
determine possible changes in the surface macro-texture level.
Daily low and high temperatures and rainfall data were obtained
from the University of Waterloo weather station, in addition to pave-
ment and ambient temperatures during the testing. This enabled
determination of the true effect of the environment and develop-
ment of a model for seasonal variation that correlated the statistically
significant variables.
For long-term friction performance, field data of the Long-Term
Pavement Performance (LTPP) Release 21 were obtained for both
PCC and AC pavements, incorporating all geographic and climatic
regions of Canada and the United States. The PCC pavements data
included all sections under Global Positioning System (GPS)-3,
GPS-4, GPS-5, and GPS-9, consisting of 1,692 SN measurements,
while AC pavements data included all sections under GPS-1, GPS-2,
GPS-6, and GPS-7, consisting of 2,742 measurements. For each
section the information and data obtained included friction (skid)
number, traffic use, age, annual wet days, annual average temper-
ature, climatic region, speed and temperature during the testing,
asphalt mix gradation, air void (AV), voids in mineral aggregates
(VMA), stability, and PCC surface texture type and compressive
strength.
DATA PROCESSING
The monthly skid data were routinely checked during the actual test-
ing for accuracy and consistency relative to that of preceding months.
Measurements were repeated if any doubtful situation occurred. Sur-
face friction measurements were taken on a wet surface after thor-
ough cleaning to remove any dust or other debris, so as to determine
the true effect of rainfall, temperature, and DSF.
The surface friction data in the LTPP database consist of mea-
surements taken by several types of friction tester. Therefore, mea-
surements taken by a single equipment type with the maximum
number of measurement points were selected for consistency in
the analysis and findings. The selected equipment is the ASTM
locked-wheel skid trailer (ASTM E 274). Among the locked-
wheel friction tests, a smooth tire was used for a couple of sections.
These sections were also filtered out, for consistency with the method
of skid measurement and equipment used. Only the locked-wheel
skid test data obtained with the ribbed tire were used in the analy-
sis of PCC surface friction variation. For AC pavements, friction
data were further sorted, and measurements were taken with the
ASTM locked-wheel skid trailer (ASTM E 274) from a single
manufacturer, to further reduce the data volume and to be more
consistent. The friction data of all sections were then individually
checked for accuracy, practicality, and consistency, such as for
unusual increases or decreases. All the doubtful data were filtered
out to obtain meaningful and useful results and models. As the main
objective was to examine the skid resistance performance over the
long term, sections with at least two friction data in time succes-
Transportation Research Record 2094
sion were used in the analysis, except that PCC surfaces were
ranked by SN exhibited by each texture configuration. Finally, data
from 238 PCC pavement sections in 38 states and provinces of the
United States and Canada were used in the analysis. For AC pave-
ments, data from 256 sections in 33 states and provinces were used
in the analysis.
Average SN of multiple measurements on each section was calcu-
lated and used as the available surface friction of each section at each
age level. The time (age) between successive friction measurements
and cumulative age for each section was calculated. The temperature
during the testing, vehicle speed, and all other data were converted
to metric units. Mean annual average daily traffic (AADT) and per-
centage of trucks on LTPP lanes were calculated from traffic data dur-
ing the years of friction measurements. Cumulative traffic on LTPP
lanes was then calculated. Mean annual wet days (percentage of num-
ber of days in each year) and annual average mean temperatures were
calculated from weather data of 1986 through 2005 (20 years). For
PCC surfaces, average 28-day compressive strength was calculated
for each section, with appropriate correction for test at different ages.
For AC surfaces, mean Marshall stability, flow, voids, and VMA were
calculated. The coarse aggregate percentage and maximum aggre-
gate size in the mix were also obtained for each surface layer.
Table 1 shows the summary statistics of the data that were used in the
analysis. The data cover four climatic regions: dry freeze, wet freeze,
dry no freeze, and wet no freeze.
ANALYSIS AND RESULT
Seasonal Variation of Pavement Surface Friction
The PCC and AC wet pavements’ uncorrected surface friction was
shown to vary by up to 10 BPN and 13 BPN, respectively, depend-
ing on pavement or ambient temperatures during the testing and
other factors that need to be established. Figure 1 shows the month-
to-month fluctuation of corrected (normalized to 20°C) wet surface
friction for both AC and PCC pavements, which is likely to be related
to seasonal variation of pavement surface characteristics. As shown
in the figure, the variation of skid resistance for both AC and PCC
surfaces is almost identical (slight deviations are probably related to
test repeatability). The difference between the lowest and highest wet
surface friction was shown to be 8 BPN for both AC and PCC sur-
faces. This variation agrees well with that indicated by Jayawickrama
and Thomas (10) for the seasonal variation of 6 SN between winter
and summer, taking the SN value as 77% of the BPN (19). Statisti-
cal tests between AC and PCC surfaces and among various AC sur-
faces have shown that neither pavement types nor pavement-mix
types are statistically significant at 5% significance level for monthly
variations in wet surface friction.
Figure 2 shows the effect of pavement surface and ambient tem-
peratures on surface friction variation. As shown in the figure,
trends for the air and surface temperatures are identical and over-
lap. This indicates that the seasonal variation of surface friction
can be estimated from either of these, although ambient tempera-
ture has shown a slightly better correlation, with a correlation
coefficient (r) of 0.88. The developed correlation between surface
friction and temperature is given by Equation 5. The model is sta-
tistically significant at 5% level of significance. The developed
correlation shows that for 1°C increase in temperature, the wet sur-
face friction will decrease by 0.35 BPN. Taking the SN64 as 77%
Ahammed and Tighe 115

TABLE 1 Descriptive Statistics of the LTPP Data

Statistics Count Min Max Mean SD

Rigid Pavements
SN 743 22.0 65.5 46.6 6.86
Age, years 743 0 15.95 2.85 3.22
AADT 277 462 13,637 4,757 3,153
Cumulative traffic, millions 277 0 42.02 5.85 7.82
Truck, % 277 2.9 68.5 18.1 12.6
Speed, mph 743 41.8 88.5 65.3 4.64
Air temperature, °C 655 0 41.7 22.3 8.25
Compressive strength, MPa 677 20.64 56.67 37.2 7.60
Annual avg. temperature, °C 743 2.8 22.9 13.4 4.25
Annual avg. wet days, % 743 9.2 51.8 34.6 8.16
Flexible Pavements
SN 1,229 23.0 68.5 44.8 8.01
Age, years 1,229 0 12.05 2.12 2.26
AADT 474 407 16,700 3,723 3,387
Cumulative traffic, millions 474 0 37.3 3.6 4.98
Truck, % 474 3.8 44.9 15.5 9.85
Speed, mph 1,229 57.9 88.5 67.5 7.86
Air temperature, °C 1,164 0 42.8 22.5 8.22
Marshall stability, N 218 3,526 19,907 8,336 2,927
Annual avg. temperature, °C 1,079 2.7 25.1 12.7 4.23
Annual avg. wet days, % 1,079 6.5 56.6 35.0 9.59
Max. aggregate size, mm 484 9.5 38 16.9 4.1
Coarse aggregate, % 515 2 69 39.4 11.33
VMA, % 266 11.8 29.2 17.5 3.11
Voids, % 432 1.7 17 5.8 2.57

of the BPN value, as found by Ahammed and Tighe (19), a BPN
of 0.35 would mean a SN64 of 0.27, that is, for each 1°C increase in
temperature, the SN will decrease by 0.27 SN64. This estimate agrees
closely with the finding by Hill and Henry (9) for temperature effect,
as follows:
BPN T = 75.181 − 0.35  T
where T is temperature at °C.
Attempts had been made to correlate seasonal surface friction
variation with the mean texture depth, mean 1-day, 3-day, 5-day,
and 7-day low as well as high temperatures and total rainfalls, and
number of dry days preceding the testing day. None of these vari-
ables were statistically significant at 5% significance level. All
these observations indicate that the seasonal variation of surface
friction cannot be predicted in advance, unless the temperature of
(5)
that particular time and date is known. The prior environmental
conditions are also insignificant. Short-term variation resulting
from oil spillage, debris and dust on the surface, and the washing

75
73

72

PCC AC
71

70
69
68

68
BPN

67
66

66

65

65
66

69

66

64

65

65

65

64

71

70

60
ne

r
ly
ry

st

er
be
-9

ril

ay
3

Ju

gu
-2
ua

Ju
Ap

ob
ch

em
ch

Au
br

ct
ar

pt
ar
Fe

O
M

Se
M

Months

FIGURE 1 Month-to-month variation of pavement surface friction.

116 Transportation Research Record 2094

80
Surf_Temp Amb_Temp Amb_Temp Surf_Temp

75
Amb_Temp, r = 0.89
Surf_Temp, r = 0.84

BPN
70

65

60
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Temperature, °C

FIGURE 2 Effect of pavement surface and ambient temperatures on monthly friction

variation.

out of contaminants can be significant depending on the extent of
contamination.
Early-Life Increase of Pavement Surface Friction
pavements. The trends in the figure show that PCC surface friction
increases by about 4 points (SN64) on average from the initial SN,
whereas the increase is about 5 points (SN64) for AC pavements.
Pavement surface friction was shown to start decreasing after these
initial periods of increase.

Pavement surface friction usually increases at an early age until the

construction debris and loose materials on the surface are cleaned Effect of Rigid Pavement Texturization Methods
up by traffic movement and environmental actions such as rain. The on Surface Friction Variation
full benefit of aggregate microtexture is available once the bitumen
or cement coating from the surface aggregate is completely removed. For determining the contribution of different texturization methods
on skid resistance, the SN at a single speed of 64 km/h (40 mph)—
The surface friction then starts to decrease and continues to decrease
SN64—was chosen. The variation of average SN64 and the ranks of dif-
until pavement surface distresses (e.g., raveling and cracks) cause
ferent surface texture configurations are shown in Figure 4. Rank 1
the friction to increase, if any friction increase actually occurs. A
represents the surface with the highest skid resistance, with a descend-
data set comprising two opposite trends likely to compensate for
ing SN value as the rank decreases. Among the PCC surfaces, cross-
each other in all analysis and in the model is aimed at determining
textured surface with transverse groove after burlap drag was shown
the effect of contributing factors to surface friction variation. There-
to exhibit the highest skid resistance (average SN64 = 50), while
fore, the processed LTPP data were divided into two groups: the first
the Astroturf dragged surface was shown to exhibit the lowest skid
group consisting of increases in surface friction during the early age
resistance (average SN64 = 41).
and the second group consisting of decreases in surface friction after
the early-age increase. This allowed for quantifying both early-age
and long-term skid resistance variations and for developing models. Skid Resistance Changes with Surface Age
The trends for AC and PCC pavements’ early-age surface friction
are shown in Figure 3. Full surface friction was attained in about The trends for change in pavement surface friction after an initial
30 months, on average, for PCC pavements and in 18 months for AC (early-life) increase are shown in Figure 5. The trends in the figure

65

55
AC
PCC
SN64

45
PCC
AC
35

25
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Surface age, year

FIGURE 3 Early-life skid resistance changes for AC and PCC pavement surfaces.
Ahammed and Tighe 117

60

49 50
50 46 46
45

SN64
43 44
41
40

30

)
)

)
3)
)

(3

(2
(7

(4

(1
(6

(5

t(
ne

ne
rf

ve
p

oa
on
rla
tu

oo

o
Ti

Ti
Fl
tro

ro
m
Bu

Br

&
ia

G
ed
As

rf
D

s.
ov
Tu

an
ro

Tr
G

&
p
rla
Bu
Texture type

FIGURE 4 Average SN and ranks for different texturization methods of PCC.

show a consistent decrease in skid resistance with the age of the
pavement surfaces after the early-life increase. Figure 5 also sug-
gests that AC pavements’ surface friction decreases at a higher rate,
than that of the PCC pavement surfaces, and the loss mainly occurs
for about 8 years after the early-life friction increase.
LONG-TERM FRICTION PERFORMANCE MODELS
Multiple regression analysis in statistical analysis software Statisti-
cal Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) 15.0 was used for devel-
oping the long-term friction performance models. The available
variables were entered in the model, and statistically significant
variables were selected through proper examination of the models.
The predictor variables that were statistically significant at a 5%
significance level make practical sense and improve the prediction
power of the models and therefore were selected for building the
final models. The dependent variable for these models is the aver-
age SN. The predictor variables that were included for both PCC
and AC pavements are surface age, cumulative vehicle passes, per-
centage of trucks, vehicle speed, ambient temperature during the
testing, annual average temperature, annual average wet days, and
codes for climatic regions (dry versus wet and freeze versus no
freeze). For AC pavements, additional predictor variables were
maximum aggregate size, coarse aggregate percentage, AV (%),
VMA (%), Marshall stability, and flow. For PCC pavements, addi-
tional variables included concrete compressive strength and a code
that accounts for the difference in surface texture type.
The best correlation of each independent variable (IV) with the
DV was selected by means of the curve estimation module in SPSS.
The attempted trends include linear, quadratic, inverse, logarithm,
exponential, and power. The trend that showed greater correlation
coefficient (r) and made logical sense was selected for transforma-
tion of each IV, if not for the linear trend. In all modeling attempts,
the normality was checked on the basis of the distribution of stan-
dardized residual. Observation points with standardized residual
absolute values exceeding 2.0 were filtered out as outliers on the
basis of guidance in statistical analysis text (20). The filtering
process was repeated until the normality condition was met. The
multicollinearity was checked on the basis of the variance infla-
tion factor (VIF), where a VIF value of less than 4 to 5 indicates no
multicollinearity problem (20).

70
PCC AC PCC AC
60

50
SN64

40

30

20
0 5 10 15 20
Surface age after initial period of friction increase, year

FIGURE 5 Changes in skid resistance with age after initial increase.

118 Transportation Research Record 2094

Models for Rigid Pavements’ Long-Term Friction
The outputs of the modeling attempts for long-term surface friction
had shown that annual average temperature, annual average wet days,
and different climatic regions that distinguish between dry (dry–freeze
and dry–no-freeze) and wet (wet–freeze and wet–no-freeze) weathers,
as well as between freeze (dry–freeze and wet–freeze) and no–freeze
(dry–no-freeze and wet–no-freeze) are statistically insignificant or
meaningless. This indicates that the PCC pavement long-term surface
friction is less sensitive to environmental condition. The percentage
of trucks was also shown to be statistically insignificant at 5% signif-
icance level, but the number of cumulative traffic passes was shown
to be significant. Concrete compressive strength was also shown to
be statistically insignificant. Pavement age and cumulative traffic
passes were shown to be statistically significant in separate models.
Two sets of the model were, therefore, developed. The summary of
these two models is presented in Table 2 and given by Equation 6
(Model A) and Equation 7 (Model B).
SN S = 21.767 − 0.717 Y + 40.345 R − 0.198 S
SN S = 35.840 − 0.240 V + 35.486 R − 0.308 S − 0.131 T
where
SNS = SN at speed S,
S = vehicle speed in km/h,
Y = pavement age in years after an early-age increase in surface
friction (age since construction minus 21⁄2 years),
V = cumulative traffic passes in million after an early-age
increase in surface friction (total traffic since construction
minus traffic passes in 21⁄2 years),
T = temperature during the testing in °C, and
R = rank for different texture configurations in available skid
resistance, relative to the average friction number exhibited
by all surface textures.
The surface texture that had exhibited above-average skid resis-
tance based on the network ranked above 1.0 and vice versa. The
ranks for various surface textures are: Astroturf drag = 0.87, burlap
drag = 0.92, broom drag = 0.93, diamond ground = 0.96, Astroturf
drag and tining = 0.98, grooved float = 0.99, tining = 1.04, and
burlap drag and transverse groove = 1.08.
As shown in Table 2, all the predictor variables are statistically
significant at 5% significance level ( p-values are less than 0.05) for
both models. The coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.59 for Model
A and 0.70 for Model B. The low R2 values do not indicate any prob-
(6)
lem, if each regression coefficient is statistically significant at a
preselected significance level and makes logical sense and if the
(7)
regression diagnostic does not show any problem. The regression
coefficients associated with age and traffic indicate that PCC sur-
face friction reduces at 0.7 SN per year or 0.24 SN per million vehi-
cle movements. Surface friction increases with improved texture
rank and decreases with increase in speed and with increase in

TABLE 2 Summaries of Long-Term Friction Performance Models

Parameter N Coefficient t-Value p-Value VIF R2

Rigid Pavement Long-Term Skid Resistance: Model A (Equation 6)

Intercept 153 21.767 3.69 0.000 0.592
Age, year 153 −0.717 −10.80 0.000 1.07
Relative rank 153 40.345 7.02 0.000 1.04
Speed, km/h 153 −0.198 −6.28 0.000 1.08
Rigid Pavement Long-Term Skid Resistance: Model B (Equation 7)
Intercept 127 35.840 6.70 0.000 0.701
Cum. traffic, millions 127 −0.240 −9.61 0.000 1.02
Relative rank 127 35.486 6.84 0.000 1.03
Speed, km/h 127 −0.308 −11.30 0.000 1.03
Test temperature, °C 127 −0.131 −4.89 0.000 1.01
Flexible Pavement Long-Term Skid Resistance: Model C (Equation 8)
Intercept 468 63.079 29.394 0.000 0.484
Age, year 468 −1.208 −10.00 0.000 1.03
Dry–wet code (DW) 468 5.321 10.17 0.000 1.04
Freeze code (FNF) 468 2.697 5.34 0.000 1.13
Speed, km/h 468 −0.179 −5.72 0.000 1.14
Test temperature, °C 468 −0.242 −8.74 0.000 1.08
Flexible Pavement Long-Term Skid Resistance: Model D (Equation 9)
Intercept 467 59.644 26.20 0.000 0.412
Cum. traffic, millions 467 −0.265 −3.57 0.000 1.04
Dry–wet code (DW) 467 5.901 10.78 0.000 1.03
Freeze code (FNF) 467 3.691 6.96 0.000 1.12
Speed, km/h 467 −0.133 −4.03 0.000 1.16
Test temperature, °C 467 −0.293 −10.16 0.00 1.09

NOTE: N = number of observation points.

Ahammed and Tighe
temperature during the testing (driving). All these variations make
practical sense.
The regression diagnostic has shown that VIFs are 1.01 to 1.08,
lower than the acceptable maximum value of 4 to 5 that leaves no
doubt about the model. The errors were shown to be normally dis-
tributed about the mean, and the scatter plot of errors has shown
no particular pattern, further proving the adequacy of the devel-
oped models. The models, therefore, may be used to predict the
PCC pavements’ surface friction after about 21⁄2 years of construc-
tion. For example, if surface friction after 10 years is to be pre-
dicted, the Y variable in Equation 6 would be 71⁄2 years. For
pavement management, it is recommended to apply both models
and use the lowest friction value obtained from these two models
for preventive action.
Models for Flexible Pavements’ Long-Term Friction
In AC pavement long-term surface friction models, the annual aver-
age temperature and annual average wet days were shown to be sta-
tistically insignificant, as with the PCC pavements. However, the
codes defining different climatic regions were shown to be statisti-
cally significant. The correlations of surface friction with asphalt
mix properties such as voids and VMA were shown to be impracti-
cal, with a very high correlation coefficient, making all other IVs
insignificant. A close study by the authors also showed that neither
AV nor VMA has statistically significant or meaningful correlation
with the SN. This is probably because both AV and VMA are inter-
nal properties of the mix, while the skid resistance is an external
property of the pavement surface. The coarse aggregate percentage
and maximum aggregate size were also shown to be statistically
insignificant for long-term surface friction variation. Pavement age
and cumulative traffic passes were shown to be statistically signif-
icant in separate models resembling the PCC pavement surfaces,
and therefore, two models were developed. The summaries of these
two models are also presented in Table 2 and given by Equation 8
(Model C) and Equation 9 (Model D).
SN S = 63.079 − 1.208 Y + 5.321 DW
+ 2.697 FNF − 0.179 S − 0.242 T (8)
SN S = 59.644 − 0.265 V + 5.901 DW
+ 3.691 FNF − 0.133 S − 0.293 T (9)
where DW is dry versus wet weather code (dry weather = 1, and
wet weather = 0), and FNF is freeze versus no freeze weather code
(no-freeze = 1, and freeze = 0).
The R2 values for Models C and D (Equation 8 and 9) are 0.48 and
0.41, respectively. However, as shown in Table 2, all the predictor
variables for both models are statistically significant at 5% signifi-
cance level. Equation 8 and Equation 9 also show that the coeffi-
cients associated with the IVs are logical. Regression diagnostic has
also shown that errors are normally distributed, whereas the scatter
plot of errors has shown that errors are randomly distributed about
a line with mean equal to zero with no particular trend. The VIFs
are from 1.03 to 1.16, indicating no multicollinearity problem. The
significance of DW and FNF indicates that the performance of the
AC pavements is more affected by the environmental condition as
compared with the performance of the PCC surfaces. The greater
119
susceptibility of the asphaltic concrete to environmental changes
probably justifies such variation.
The developed models show that AC pavements’ surface fric-
tion reduces at 1.2 SN per year or 0.27 SN per million vehicle
passes, which is relatively higher than that of the PCC pavements’
surfaces. AC pavements will exhibit 5 to 6 greater SN if the weather
is predominantly dry (dry–no-freeze and dry freeze) as compared
with wet (wet-freeze and wet–no-freeze). If the weather is pre-
dominantly freezing (dry–freeze and wet–freeze), the AC pave-
ments will exhibit 3 to 4 lower as compared with no freeze weather
(dry–no-freeze and wet no freeze).
CONCLUSIONS
This study has examined the seasonal, early-life, and long-term vari-
ations of both AC and PCC pavements’ surface friction on the basis
of the field data. The seasonal variation of both AC and PCC pave-
ment wet surface friction was shown to be similar. The wet surface
friction was shown to vary mainly as a result of ambient or surface
temperature variation, which is probably associated with changes
in tire hardness. The surface friction variation was shown to be
0.35 BPN for 1°C variation in temperature. Prior weather, such as
dry-spell, rainfall, or temperature conditions, was not shown to be
statistically significant for seasonal skid resistance variation. The
seasonal variation examined in this study, however, did not account
for the short-term variation resulting from surface contamination
such as dust, debris, oil, or rubber deposit.
The LTPP data have shown that full surface friction is attained
in about 11⁄2 (AC) to 21⁄2 (PCC) years, on average, following the
construction. The early-life surface friction increase was shown
to be about 4 SN for PCC and 5 SN for AC pavements. The sur-
face friction was shown to decrease thereafter with age, mainly
because of traffic-related wear and polishing. PCC and AC sur-
face friction was shown to decrease at 0.24 SN and 0.27 SN,
respectively, per million vehicle passes, or 0.7 SN and 1.2 SN,
respectively, per year. AC pavement surface friction was shown
to be affected more by predominant weather conditions as com-
pared with that of PCC pavement surfaces. Four alternative mod-
els were successfully developed for the prediction of long-term
surface friction. In practice, both models should be utilized, and
lower friction value should be used for pavement management or
investigation purposes.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors thank the Natural Science and Engineering Research
Council and Cement Association of Canada for funding the complete
research on pavement surface characteristics.
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The Surface Properties–Vehicle Interaction Committee sponsored the publication
of this paper.