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May 3, 2020
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JAMES CARBONE

Robert Moses State Park on Saturday.

LIers Flock
to Parks,
Beaches
\ Officials: Most
practice social
distancing
\ Some parks reach
capacity, close
A5

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KNOW!
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FANFARE
Experts: Businesses
face hardships until vaccine;
NEWSDAY / STEVE PFOST
rebound in consumer confidence is key
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HOW LIers ARE SPENDING THEIR STIMULUS CHECKS LI BUSINESS

COPYRIGHT 2020, NEWSDAY LLC, LONG ISLAND, VOL. 80, NO. 243
 A4
TRACKING THE CORONAVIRUS

LI BOUNCEBACK HANGS ON
Otherwise, fear
slows economic
recovery: experts
BY MAURA MCDERMOTT
AND JAMES T. MADORE
maura.mcdermott@newsday.com
james.madore@newsday.com

Long Island’s economy will

not make a full recovery until a
vaccine or effective treatment
for the new coronavirus is found,
and the longer that takes, the
worse the toll will be, a spectrum
of economists, academics and
business people said.
With consumer spending
driving 70% of American eco-
nomic activity, Long Island’s
small businesses — from shops
and eateries to hotels and con-
struction companies — are suf-
fering from the shutdown of
non-essential businesses to
slow the spread of the deadly
virus, economists said.

JEFFREY BASINGER
Many are making dramatic
changes to adjust to the new way
of living, such as restaurants of-
fering deliveries instead of table
service, real estate brokers giv- The parking lots of the Roosevelt Field mall in Garden City were empty on April 1 after closures were ordered due to the coronavirus.
ing online home tours and of-

fices allowing employees to
work remotely. But while those
practices help lower the rate of
new infections, they do not nec-
essarily mean the Island’s small
businesses will survive the pan-
demic.
Even once more businesses
are eventually permitted to re-
open, consumers could be too
frightened for their safety — or
too strapped for cash — to
make the major purchases that
keep the economy moving.
Small businesses, which make
newsday.com
SPECIAL REPORT
since the Great Depression,”
though he said this downturn
will not last as long.
The best-case scenario is a V-
shaped recession, with a sharp
decline followed by a strong re-
covery, he said. But that depends
on the development of a vaccine
or treatment by this fall, which
would allow the economy to re-
cover within about a year,
❛
forms of support “to really limit
the depth of the recession.” Consumer sentiment isn’t going to
Already, consumers are
spooked.
bounce back quickly. It’s going to
New York’s consumer confi- come back in spurts, the same way the
dence has fallen to the lowest
level in nearly a decade due to stock market recovers in stages. It’s
the outbreak and big drops in the
stock markets, with pessimistic
going to take more than one year. The
consumers outnumbering opti- key is going to be a vaccine. . . . When
mists, said Doug Lonnstrom,
who oversees the Siena College we find a vaccine for the coronavirus, I
Research Institute’s quarterly
Index of Consumer Sentiment
think you will see people just light up.”
for New York State. — Doug Lonnstrom, who oversees the Siena College Research Institute’s

up more than 90% of local en-
terprises, lack the resources to
sustain themselves for long
without renewed consumer
spending or more government
NEWSDAY, SUNDAY, MAY 3, 2020
Berliner said. “That’s opti-
mistic,” he said. “I think it’s possi-
ble. But it’s a stretch.”
‘There is no cushion’
Consumer confidence “is a
self-fulfilling prophecy,” said
Lonnstrom, a professor of statis-
tics and finance at Siena, north
of Albany. “If consumers ex-
quarterly Index of Consumer Sentiment for New York State
tween consumers who are hope- who was born in 1937 and re-
ful about their immediate finan- called the hospitalization of a
cial future and those who see high school friend who was

support, and many could end
up collapsing, economists said.
“It’s the mom and pop shops,
the small businesses, that are re-
ally the fabric of our economy,
that have come to a total halt
and they don’t have that safety
net,” said Herman Berliner,
provost and professor of eco-
nomics at Hofstra University.
Berliner said he is anticipat-
ing “the deepest recession
If it takes a year or two to
bring the outbreak under con-
trol, the economic damage could
last three to four years, Berliner
predicted. And the downturn is
having the most severe impact
on lower-income workers, who
are “living paycheck to paycheck
. . . there is no cushion.”
If the outbreak lingers, he said,
the government will need to pro-
vide more stimulus and other
pect things to get good, they in-
crease their spending and the
economy is good. If consumers
expect things to get bad, they
cut back on spending and the
economy is bad.”
The index for the metro area,
including Long Island, was 64.8
points in the January-March pe-
riodthe lowest point since No-
vember 2011. An index of 75 in-
dicates an equal balance be-
bad times ahead.
Lonnstrom said the eco-
nomic downturn is more akin
to the polio pandemic in the
1940s and 1950s than the
2007-09 financial crisis and
Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
The life-threatening polio virus
is highly contagious and leaves
some victims paralyzed.
“Polio is the closest thing we
have to this,” said Lonnstrom,
placed in an iron lung to treat the
disease.
“I can remember my mother
saying to me in the summer,
‘You can’t go out and play.
There’s a polio virus out
there.’” Such fears, he said,
“overshadowed everything.”
The 1955 rollout of Jonas Salk’s
polio vaccine calmed those fears.
Similarly, a coronavirus vaccine
will eventually boost consumer

VACCINE, CURE
Chairs hang stacked on empty tables at a closed restaurant in New York City.
confidence, he said.
“Consumer sentiment isn’t
going to bounce back quickly.
It’s going to come back in
spurts, the same way the stock
market recovers in stages,”
Lonnstrom said. “It’s going to
take more than one year. The
key is going to be a vaccine.
. . . When we find a vaccine
for the coronavirus, I think you
will see people just light up.”
It’s not just New Yorkers
who feel skittish. Across the
country, consumers swung
from heady optimism to pes-
simism after the pandemic hit.
The Manhattan-based Confer-
ence Board’s monthly Con-
sumer Confidence Index hit a
35-year high of 130 points in Janu-
ary 2020. It slipped to just under
119 in March. By April, the na-
tionwide index was less than 87.
A reading of 100 indicates an
equal balance between opti-
mists and pessimists.
The decline in consumer
confidence in April was even
more pronounced in New York
State, said Lynn Franco, the
board’s senior director of eco-
nomic indicators.
Even so, consumers’ expecta-
tions about the economy and
labor market rebounded a bit
more recently, offering “a glim-
mer of hope because there is
this anticipation that the re-
strictions [on nonessential] ac-
tivities will be lifted, and the
economy will gradually re-
open,” Franco said.
Still, consumers are leery of
TRACKING THE
making big-ticket purchases
for cars, appliances and
houses. People “want to see
how the economy turns
around, how their own finan-
cial situation turns around,”
Franco said.
“We do expect a gradual im-
provement by year-end in
terms of economic growth,”
she said. “But until there is a
treatment, there are certain ac-
tivities that are unlikely to
come back to where they were:
travel, hotels, entertainment,
restaurants, personal care ser-
vices, nursing homes.”
If there is a second outbreak,
she said, “that could have a
tremendous impact on confi-
dence as well.”
Fallout from 1918 flu
The 1918 Spanish flu pan-
demic prompted some of the
same restrictions being im-
posed now, such as closures of
businesses and schools and
prohibitions on large gather-
ings, which left some eco-
nomic sectors “in a weakened
state,” said Nancy Tomes, a pro-
fessor of history at Stony
Brook University.
Even after such an epidemic
passes, “you have the leftover
fear,” she said. “People are slow
to come back into normal life,
and I think that, again, is a paral-
lel we’re seeing today.” Once the
economy re-opens, she said,
“we can be told it’s safe to go
out, but we’re still cautious be-
cause we’ve just been through
CORONAVIRUS
AP / YUKI IWAMURA
this traumatic experience.”
The randomness of the new
coronavirus — which is hitting
hardest among senior citizens
and those with compromised im-
mune systems, but also strikes
young and formerly healthy peo-
ple — has “a chilling effect,” said
David L. Calone, a venture capi-
talist who lives in Setauket and
is advising Suffolk County offi-
cials on support programs for
small businesses.
For any businesses whose
employees can work from
home, he said, “I think they’re
going to continue to do so for
the foreseeable future. You
know, there’s no prize for
being the first company back
in the office.”
The problem, he said, is that
stores and restaurants not only
are suffering from the current
lack of consumer activity, but
will also need to cope with new
restrictions on crowds once the
economy re-opens. Without
crowds, some restaurants and
other businesses “may lose
money even staying open.”
Suffolk County officials are
speaking with local communi-
ties about allowing restaurants
to operate sidewalk tables that
would permit more social dis-
tancing, he said. “Right now,
many businesses are on life
support,” he said. Some, he
said, “have the ability to go
maybe a month or so without
revenue, but to go much be-
yond that, most people don’t
have that kind of reserves.”
WARMTH, SUN DRAW CROWDS
TO ISLAND’S BEACHES, PARKS
BY JOHN ASBURY
AND JOAN GRALLA
john.asbury@newsday.com
joan.gralla@newsday.com
Sun-filled Long Island state
parks and beaches beckoned
to the quarantined crowds on
Saturday, prompting several to
stop accepting visitors by mid-
morning.
But government officials
and authorities said most Long
Islanders were practicing so-
cial distancing on the warm
spring weekend.
Nassau County Executive
Laura Curran said the county’s
parks and beaches were busy
Saturday, but most crowds ob-
served social distancing. All
Nassau County-operated
beaches and parks remained
open.
Jones Beach and other state
parks closed because they’d
reached capacity by Saturday
morning.
As of 10 a.m., the state Parks,
Recreation and Historic Preser-
vation website said these sites
were at capacity: Shadmoor
State Park, Amsterdam Beach
State Park and Camp Hero in
Montauk; Caleb Smith State
Park Preserve in Smithtown;
Connetquot River State Park
Preserve in Oakdale; Planting
Fields Arboretum in Oyster
Bay; and Bayard Cutting Arbore-
tum in Great River.
By noon, Field 6 at Jones
Beach State Park, Field 5 at
Robert Moses State Park and
Caumsett State Historic Park
Preserve in Huntington also
had closed, the state said.
Montauk Point, Belmont
Lake State Park in West Baby-
lon, Sunken Meadow State
Park in Kings Park, Captree
State Park in Bay Shore and
Heckscher State Park in East
Islip also closed Saturday after-
noon, according to the state
Field 4 at Robert Moses on Saturday. \ Video: newsday.com/li
A5
parks website.
A parks official said Friday
that extra park police have
been assigned and are coordi-
nating with State Police to pro-
vide additional law enforce-
ment coverage at Montauk-
area state parks.
Although state park grounds
are open during the coron-
avirus pandemic, New Yorkers
are encouraged to stay home,
according to a post on the
state parks website. Anyone
who does visit a state park is
advised to “visit parks close to
home, avoid crowded areas,
and wear face coverings where
you cannot maintain safe so-
cial distance.”
In Long Beach, meanwhile,
city officials said the beach
was busy, with small groups of
families gathering and practic-
ing social distancing.
The city’s 2.2-mile board-
walk has been closed since
March, but the city opened
two ramps on the end of the
boardwalk at Neptune Boule-
vard and New York Avenue to
ease crowding at entrance
points. The beach also is acces-
sible on the city’s West End,
but lifeguards are not on duty.
The Town of Brookhaven re-
opened three waterfront areas,
not the beaches, for residents
to walk, hike and jog, officials
announced Friday.
“As far as we know, every-
thing is going well,” town
spokesman Jack Krieger said
Saturday afternoon. “We
haven’t had any reports of prob-
lems.”
The Town of Hempstead
closed Lido Beach last month
due to overcrowding by
surfers, but its other beaches
remained open with new signs
at Point Lookout and life-
guards on duty to tell beachgo-
ers to spread out.
With Dandan Zou
newsday.com
NEWSDAY, SUNDAY, MAY 3, 2020
JAMES CARBONE