Name ___Rose Minani__________________________________________ Math 1010, Date _5/01/2020__________

The worldwide pandemic has had effect on all our lives. For your project this semester we will be analyzing the real data
of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Utah. We will be using data from https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/ from
February 28, 2020, to April 7, 2020. We will also be referencing the video from https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=Kas0tIxDvrg&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2oU2aKYKB5N3cZhyfoovGiUwXGDRkLhfvDdjgN3xyCTBznKaqg3-EvFYM
which summarizes and analyzes the confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, outside China, up to Mar 6. We will be
referencing this video throughout the project as hints and directing you to more explanations.

1. The first confirmed COVID-19 case in Utah occurred on February 28. Each day the number of confirmed cases
was reported. Below you will find the total confirmed COVID-19 cases from February 28, 2020, to April 7, 2020.

Date vs. 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚𝑒𝑑 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠

2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
24-Feb 29-Feb 5-Mar 10-Mar 15-Mar 20-Mar 25-Mar 30-Mar 4-Apr 9-Apr 14-Apr

a. What kind of growth is this? (Hint: refer to 0:04 in video)

Exponential growth

b. Why would this be classified as this type of growth? (Hint: refer to 0:43 and 3:50 in the video)

Exponential growth means “as you go from one day to the next it involves multiplying by some constant”, and in this
case in our data the number of cases in each day tends to be a multiple of the number of cases from the previous day.

c. With this type of growth model we multiply each data value by a constant to get the next data value. What
is the constant that we are multiplying each data value by with our Utah Confirmed COVID-19 cases data?
First we will do an example for demonstration:
Find the growth rate from March 31 to April 1.

Days since the first infection, Feb 28 Date Total Number of confirmed cases
30 March 29 861
31 March 30 980

Total Cases on single day

growthrate=
total cases on previous day
 Total cases on Mar 30 980
¿ = ≈ 1.14
Total cases on Mar 29 869

Find the growth rate from March 31 to April 1:

Days since the first infection, Feb 28 Date Total Number of confirmed cases
32 March 31 1072
33 April 1 1171

1171/1072=1.1

Growth rate from March

31 to April 1 :( 1.1)

d. Is it ok that this constant that we multiply by in the example above I did for you and the one you did are
different? Does it still qualify as exponential growth model? (Hint: refer to 0:43)

No because it’s not multiply by some constant (growth rate stays the same)

e. Why do you think that the growth rate indicated in the video (referenced at 0:43) is different than our
calculated growth model rates? ? (Hint: refer to 7:50 in the video)

Because the amount of exposure goes down when people stop gather and traveling, and the infection rate goes down
when people start washing their hands.

2. Often researchers transform the y -axis to a logarithmic scale when we have an exponential growth model. They
do this because it makes an exponential curve look linear. This is desirable because we are very good at
analyzing linear functions. We can use similar theoretical approaches to understand the exponential model.
Examining the y -axis in problem 1 you see the range is 0 to about 1800. Examining the y -axis below the y -axis
has a range of 0 to 3.5. But both graphs are the same data, the graph below is just on a logarithmic scale.
Further explanation at 1:50 in the video.
 Date vs. log⁡(𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚𝑒𝑑 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠)
3.5 To transform our data from
problem 1 to a logarithmic scale
3 you want to find the number
2.5 that 10 is raised to to form the
total confirmed cases. In other
2 words, we want to find y∗¿,
where y∗¿ is the y -value on
1.5
the y -axis on the graph in
1 problem 2 by solving

0.5
10 y∗¿=TotalConfirmed Cases .¿
0
24-Feb 29-Feb 5-Mar 10-Mar 15-Mar 20-Mar 25-Mar 30-Mar 4-Apr 9-Apr 14-Apr

I will demonstrate how we find the logarithmic data point for Mar 20, 2020. On the graph in problem 1 the data
value is (Mar 20, 162 Confirmed Cases), see below for a demonstration of the transformation of the y -value to
the logarithmic scale.

We want to solve for y∗¿ in the equation below:

10 y∗¿=TotalConfirmed Cases ¿
We plug in the number of confirmed cases (162 confirmed cases) on Mar 20 for the Total Confirmed Cases:
10 y∗¿=162¿
We need to solve for y∗¿ which is in the exponent. To do this we need to transform the equation into a
logarithm by using the definition of a logarithm.
y∗¿ log ⁡(162)
y∗≈ 2.2
So the data point on the graph in problem 2 (with the logarithmic scale) should be (Mar 20, 2.2).

a. Is (Mar 20, 2.2) a point on the graph in Problem 2? If yes, circle or highlight the corresponding point on the
graph in Problem 2. If no, then what is the point approximately?

b. Find the point on the logarithmic scale that refers to the point (Mar 25, 451) on the graph in problem 1. Be
sure to show all the work. If the indicated point corresponds to the point on the graph in problem 2, circle or
highlight the point.

3. Now that we have a line that is approximately linear we can draw a linear line that is the “best fit” through the
data points. We could choose two points and find the equation like we did in class using y− y1 =m ( x−x 1 ) but
everyone would have a different equation if they chose different points. There is a mathematical way to find the
best fit using all the points. This technique is called the Least Squares Regression line. (More explanation in video
at 2:18). Below you can see the Least Squares Regression line through the data values.

Date vs. log⁡(𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚𝑒𝑑 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠)

3.5

2.5

1.5

0.5

0
24-Feb 29-Feb 5-Mar 10-Mar 15-Mar 20-Mar 25-Mar 30-Mar 4-Apr 9-Apr 14-Apr

The equation of the Least Squares Regression line is y=0.0932 x +0.0527. On the line you can see it basically
goes through (Mar 20, 2) and (Mar 30, 3). But remember, the y -values are the log ⁡(Total Confirmed Cases)
not the Total Confirmed Cases , which is what we are interested in. Instead of the y -values 2 and 3, we really
are looking at 102 and 103, or 100 and 1000 confirmed cases. Therefore, rate of change is indicated by this
sentence: it took about 10 days for the number of cases to multiply by 10 from 100 to 1000 confirmed cases, on
average.

a. What is the slope of the Least Squares Regression line?

0.5

b. What is the interpretation of the slope? Fill in the blank. (Hint: refer to 2:20 in video).
The number of confirmed cases tends to multiply by 10 every ____16_____ days, on average.

With the Least Squares Regression line we can measure how close our model actually is to an exponential
model. This is reported as R2 . Our model has an R2=0.987, which means it is really freaking close. (Quoted
from 2:35 in the video).

c. This data is modeled well with an exponential equation. You can see how well it predicts the total number of
confirmed cases against the actual data we have. Let’s examine the data for March 29 (which was 30 days
since the first confirmed equation).

Days since the first infection Date Total Confirmed Cases log ⁡(Total Confirmed Cases)
30 March 29 861 2.9

We use our Least Squares Regression line: y=0.093 x +0.0527 , where x is the number of days since the
first infection and y is the predicted number of log ⁡(Total Confirmed Cases). We do not want the
log ⁡(Total Confirmed Cases)we want Total Confirmed Cases and below is demonstrated how to calculate
this value.

First you need to plug in x=30 into our Least Square Regression equation
y=0.0932 x +0.0527
 y=0.093(30)+ 0.0527
y ≈ 2.8487
We see this value is close to the log ⁡(Total Confirmed Cases) in the table, but remember we do not want
log ⁡(Total Confirmed Cases) we want Total Confirmed Cases. To find Total Confirmed Cases we have to
transform it from a logarithm into an exponential using the definition of a logarithm.
y=log ⁡(Total Confirmed Cases)
10 y =Total Confirmed Cases

So therefore, we plug in y ≈ 2.8487

102.8487 =Total Confirmed Cases
Total Confirmed Cases ≈ 706

This is not exactly the same as the actual data of Total Confirmed Cases , but remember this is just a model
and it is close to the actual number of Total Confirmed Cases.

Using this model predict the number of Total Confirmed Cases for April 30, which is 62 days since the first
confirmed case. And remember, I want to Total Confirmed Cases not the log ⁡(Total Confirmed Cases) so
be sure to calculate that!

Days since the first infection Date

62 April 30

Y=0.093(62) +0.0527=5.8187

Y=5.8187

10^5.8187=658719 total confirmed cases

4. In our prediction we assumed the growth rate is unchanged. This is unreasonable (explanation of why from 3:40
to 4:50) since eventually the population would be saturated with people who have already become infected and
cannot be infected again. Therefore, it would be necessary to account for this with the proportion of people
who can be infected over the whole population (explained at 4:30).
a. For this reason, exponential models are never actually seen in the world, they are always actually
__logistic___________ curves. Fill in the blank. (Hint: refer to 4:50 in video)

b. The logistic curve is essentially indistinguishable from an exponential graph at the beginning. However,
the growth rate starts to slow down eventually leveling out at the carrying capacity for the population.
The point that the curve goes from curving upward to downward is called the inflection point. (Explained
at 5:10 in video).

To determine if a growth model has hit the inflection point and started to curve downward, we examine
the growth factor. The growth factor is the number new cases of the current day divided by the number
new cases the day previously.
 New cases on the current day
growth factor=
New cases the previous day
Before the inflection point the growth factor is greater than 1. After the inflection point the growth
factor is less than 1. At the inflection point it equals 1. Analyzing the growth factor is a method to
determine if the infection rate is slowing down. Together let’s analyze the growth factor between March
29 to March 30. Your assignment will be to determine the growth factor between March 31 and April 1.

Date Number of New Cases that Day

March 29 83
March 30 119

New cases on the current day

growth factor=
New cases the previous day
New cases on March 30
¿
New cases on March 29
119
¿ ≈ 1.4
83
Determine the growth factor between Marc 31 and April 1.

Date Number of New Cases that Day

March 30 92
April 1 99

99/92=1.1 growth factor

c. What do these growth factors indicate about our location on the logistic curve growth model?
That on march 30th to April 1 the growth factor was 1.1

5. We encourage you to watch the video again without interruption. Reflect and write one page about what you
learned. You may want to reflect on the application of mathematical concepts we’ve learned in class to this real
world experience, did it surprise you? What are your thoughts on applying mathematical concepts to
applications in general? Did they change? Based on these mathematical computations you may want to
comment on the government policies to control the infection rate. In your reflection you may also want to
address whether the predicted number of confirmed cases from 3c above was correct, and mathematically or by
referencing policy, explain why you think this is the case. When you have completed the project with your
reflection post it on your e-portfolio.
Reflection:

This type of math is very relevant and important in real world situations. I want to learn how to apply

math concepts to real life situations. Sometimes I ask myself why math matters and why do I have to

be tested on this if we have technology. I then came to an understanding that we can’t always depend

on technology. We may one day be stranded an on island without internet or electronics and these

mathematical concepts might come in handy. Now this project was a bit tough for me to understand. I

was doing well at the beginning everything made sense until I got to the last page of this project. Now

I know that I didn’t calculate the total right also because I couldn’t make sense of it. I do, however,

hope that you’ll put the answer key up so that I can go over it and see how they calculate the total. I

want to be able to understand so that one day if anything happens I can be able to make my own

calculations but I don’t want to do that if I’m doing it incorrectly. This assignment was a really cool

assignment to do. Until this video I didn’t even know what exponential growth meant. I learned how to

tell or find out what exponential growth really is? Where it come from? What does it imply? Also how

to know when it comes to an end. The video made it simple to understand how the virus increases.

He talks about how the people that are already infected are the ones that are spreading the virus. I

learned that exponential growth “means as you go from one day to the next, it involves multiplying by

some constant. Exponential growth should look like a straight line on a scale. I use Y=mx+b to find

the slope and in class we always use that equation when solving for the slope. Doing this assignment

was actually a great way of learning how to use different equations to understand a real life

experience. It also helped me understand how the growth rate can change when people start washing

their hands and social distancing. I got confused with finding slope with the graph. I came to an

understanding that the dotted line was what I needed to use in order to find the slope. That reminded

me of the graphing homework that we do in class when we’re trying to find a certain point. My

thoughts on applying mathematical concepts to applications is that it can lead to exceptional

achievements. This project helped me understand the virus 10 times better. In general mathematics
makes our life orderly and prevents chaos. Certain qualities that are nurtured by mathematics are

power of reasoning, creativity, abstract or spatial thinking, critical thinking, problem-solving ability and

even effective communication skills. The predicted number of confirmed cases from 3c above was

wrong because I feel like if it’s just for Utah that’s too high and if it’s worldwide then that’s too low.