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MANAGEMENT ADVISORY SERVICES April 25, 2020

MAS- Quantitative Techniques & PERT CPM Instructor: DYNNITH F. SUABERON, CPA, MBM

1. The XYZ BUILDERS has just made the winning bid of Php 6 million to construct a new plant for a major
manufacturer. The manufacturer needs the plant to go into operation within a year. Therefore, the contract
includes the following provisions:

• A penalty of Php 200,000 if XYZ BUILDERS has not completed construction by the deadline 47 weeks from
now.

• To provide additional incentive for speedy construction, a bonus of Php 100,000 will be paid to XYZ
BUILDERS if the plant is completed within 40 weeks.

XYZ BUILDERS is assigning its best construction manager, Yorme Isko, to this project to help ensure that it
stays on schedule. He looks forward to the challenge of bringing the project in on schedule, and perhaps
even finishing early. However, since he is doubtful that it will be feasible to finish within 40 weeks without
incurring excessive costs, he has decided to focus his initial planning on meeting the deadline of 47 weeks.

Mr. Isko will need to arrange for a number of crews to perform the various construction activities at different
times.Table 10.1 shows his list of the various activities. The third column provides important additional
information for coordinating the scheduling of the crews.

Given all the information in Table 10.1, Mr. Isko now wants to develop answers to the following questions.

a. Draw the graphical flow of activities of the project?

b. Compute for the total time required to complete the project if no delays occur?
c. What are the critical bottleneck activities where delays should be avoided to prevent delay in the project
completion?
d. How much delay can be tolerated from other activities without delaying project completion?
e. What is the probability of completing the project by the deadline, given the uncertainties in accurately
estimated?
f. If extra money is spent to expedite the project, what is the least expensive way of attempting to meet the
target completion time (40 weeks)?

2. A fair coin is tossed. If the coin lands head, Mr. A will receive P6, and pay P4 if it lands tails. Find the Expected
Value.
3. The PSA construction operations manager has to decide whether to accept a bid or not. If the manager
accepts the bid, the construction company may gain P3.5 million if it succeeds, or lose P2.5 million if it fails.
The probability that it will succeed is 30%. Find the expected value if the company accepts the bid.
4. The manager of the company has to decide whether to prepare a bid or not. It costs P5,000 to prepare the
bid. If the bid is submitted, the probability that the contract will be awarded is 60%. If the company is
 awarded the contract, it may earn an income of P60,000 if it succeeds or pay a fine of P15,000 if it fails. The
probability of success is estimated to be 70%. Should the owner prepare the bid?
5. Five equally satisfactory brands of cars are being considered by a city government. It has announced that it
will choose one of the five random drawings. If the brands are NISSAN, DAEWO, TOYOTA, IZUZU and MAZDA
a. What is the probability that NISSAN will be chosen?
b. What is the probability of either NISSAN or TOYOTA being chosen?
6. The following are the experience data for welders in a fabrication shop.

What is the probability that a welder selected at random will have 6 or more years of experience?

7. What is the possibility of drawing either an ace or a spade from a deck of cards?
8. The City Council of Cagayan de Oro is composed of the following 5 persons.

If the members of the Council decide to elect a Chairperson by random draw (say, by drawing the names from
a lot), what is the probability that the chairperson will be either female or over 35?

9. Consider the experiment of selecting a card from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. Determine the
probability of each outcome.
a. A face card is drawn.
b. A NON face card is drawn.
c. A 7 is drawn
10. A family has three children, ages 5, 7, and 10. If we assume that the probability of giving birth to a boy is the
same as the probability of giving birth to a girl, determine the following probabilities.
a. Three girls
b. At least two boys
c. The oldest is a girl
d. Two children are of the same gender
e. There are an equal number of boys and girls

11. A basket contains 10 mangoes. In how many ways 4 mangoes from the basket can be selected?
12. A die is thrown. Find the probability of getting.
a. A ‘4’
b. an even number
c. ‘3’ or ‘5’
d. less than ‘3’

13. Two unbiased dice are thrown. Find the probability that :-
a. Both the dice show the same number
b. One die shows 6
c. First die shows 3
d. Total of the numbers on the dice is 9
e. Total of the numbers on the dice is greater than 8
f. A sum of 11
14. A bag contains 5 white balls and 8 black balls. One ball is drawn at random from the bag and is then replaced.
Again another one is drawn. Find the probability that both the balls are white.

15. The probability that ‘A’ solves a problem in Maths is 2/5 and the probability that ‘B’ solves it is 3/8. If they try
independently find the probability that :-
a. Both solve the problem.
b. at least one solve the problem.
c. none solve the problem.