Question and Answer

1. Using 3 months information, Forecast April, May, June, July, August,

September, October, November, December using the following
information .

Answer

Month Actual Forecast Forecast

Death (MA) (WMA)
1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23 19 19.33
5 18 21 21.33
6 16 20 19.83
7 20 19 17.83
8 18 18 18.33
9 22 18 18.33
10 20 20 20.33
11 15 20 20.33
12 22 19 17.83
 2. How much accurate your forecasts are (How close your forecasts are to
the actual value).

Answer

Month Actual Forecast Forecast Squared Forecast Forecast Squared

Death (MA) Error Forecast (WMA) Error Forecast
Error Error
1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23 19 4 16 19.33 3.66 13.44
5 18 21 -3 9 21.33 -3.33 11.11
6 16 20 -4 16 19.83 -3.83 14.69
7 20 19 1 1 17.83 2.16 4.69
8 18 18 0 0 18.33 -0.33 0.11
9 22 18 4 16 18.33 3.66 13.44
10 20 20 0 0 20.33 -0.33 0.11
11 15 20 -5 25 20.33 -5.33 28.44
12 22 19 3 9 17.83 4.16 17.36
Total =0 =92 =0 =103.41

MSE (MA) = 92/9 = 10.22

MSE (WMA) = 103.41/9 = 11.49

 3. Moving Average or Weighted Moving Average, which one gives better
information about your forecast accuracy?

Answer

Since Weighted Moving Average weights the most recent value the
highest, this gives the better forecast accuracy. Moving Average shows I
can forecast better.

Assignment

Solve the above questions for two months (Not for 3 months)

Month Actual Death

1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23
5 18
6 16
7 20
8 18
9 22
10 20
11 15
12 22