Solutions to Homework 2 and 2b (Due 9/13)

… 10 pts per prbl except 2-4 which is 30 pts; for 597 students, 2-4 is 20
pts & 2-30 is 10 pts; 70 pts total for 420 / 597 students
2-4: The peak overpressure expected as a result of the explosion of a tank in a plant facility is
approximated by the equation

where P is the overpressure in psi and r is the distance from the blast in feet. The plant employs
500 people who work in an area from 10 to 500 ft. from the potential blast site. Estimate the
number of fatalities expected as a result of lung hemorrhage and the number of eardrums
ruptured as a result of this blast. Be sure to state any additional assumptions.

Need to know number of fatalities due to lung hemorrhage and the number of people with
eardrum ruptures.
The total area where employees may be:

Person per square foot:

First, we want to determine the distance away from the blast a person needs to be to not be
affected. For the probit equation, we state Y = 2 (i.e., a probability of 0) to solve for the distance.
Y = k1 +k2lnV
where V is the Po (N/m2) in the case of this problem.
Injury k1 k2
Lung hemorrhage -77.1 6.91
Eardrum rupture -15.6 1.93
For lung case:

Farthest distance:

= = 50.1 ft.

Total area of lung hemorrhage zone:

Number of people dead in zone:

Determine if you need to do shell analysis:

Average overpressure:

Chance of lung hemorrhage is 100% in this area based on table 2-4.

Results show that people should not be allowed at least 50 ft from the source, instead of 10 feet.
5 people died from lung hemorrhage
For ear case:

= = 186 ft.

Total area of ear rupture zone:

Number of people affected in zone:

Determine if you need to do shell analysis:

Average overpressure:

Because the probit provides a 0% probability based on table 2-4, a shell analysis is necessary.
Assume likelihood is 1%, with Y = 2.67
New radius of rupture zone and total area of rupture zone:

Number of people affected in zone:

Two ways to do shell analysis:
1) Fixed number of people per shell
2) Fixed number of people in shells of equal radius increments
Assume 5 shells:

The second method is the most accurate method.

In order to determine outer radiuses to determine an average radius per shell use the following
formula:

For each shell determine the over pressure by equation:

Determine Y value and probability by the following equation and table 2-4:

Determine the number of ear ruptures per shell by multiplying the probability by the total
number of people per shell (9 people).

15 people experienced ear ruptures

2-18 A group of 100 people is exposed to phosgene in two consecutive periods as follows: (a) 10
ppm for 30 min and (b) 1 ppm for 300 min. Determine the expected number of fatalities.

Given data:
No. of people exposed = 100
Exposure to Phosgene
Two continuous exposure periods: 10 ppm for 30 min followed by 1 ppm for 300 min
No. of deaths = ?

The table below (Table 2.5) will help us determine the number of deaths
The equation using parameters for Phosgene is
Solving for our case
Using the table above, around 25% of the people will be killed which is 25 people.

2-19 Determine the duration times, in minutes, in which a group of 100 people can be exposed to
1500 ppm of carbon monoxide to result in (a) 0% fatalities and (b) 50% fatalities.

Given data:
No. of people involved = 100
Exposure to: 1500 ppm Carbon Monoxide
We need to determine the time a) 0% fatalities b) 50% fatalities
The equation for carbon monoxide from Table 2.5 (see 2-18 for the table) is

For 0% fatalities Y= 2 and for 50% fatalities Y=5. (Table 2-4, see 2-18 for table)
a)
1500T=e39.98/3.7
T = 32.85 min for 0% fatalities
b)
1500T = e42.98/3.7
T = 73.92 min for 50%fatalities
2-33 Using the probit equations provided in Table 2-5:
a. Determine the explosion overpressure (in psi) where 50% fatalities due to lung hemorrhage
are expected.
b. Determine the explosion overpressure (in psi) where 50% of the structures are damaged.
c. Compare the results of parts a and b. Why is the overpressure of part b frequently used as the
minimum overpressure for fatalities?

From Table 2.4 (see 2-18 for the table), we can note that Y = 5 for 50% fatalities

Using Table 2.5 (see 2-18 for the table), we can write down the probit equations for:

a) Lung hemorrhage:

5 = -77.1 + 6.91lnP
P = e82.1/6.91
P = 144542.86 N/m2
P = 20.96 psi (1 psi = 6894.76 N/m2)

b) Damage to structure:

5 = -23.8 + 2.92lnP
P = e28.8/2.92
P = 19206.68 N/m2
P = 2.78 psi (1 psi = 6894.76 N/m2)

c) The results from part a and b tell us that fatalities due to damage to structures will occur at
much lower pressure compared to lung hemorrhage. Thus the minimum overpressure for
fatalities will be the result in part b since structural damage can lead to death of people in the
structure.

CHE 597 Only

2-30 Using the following data, determine the probit constants and the LC50:

The idea here would be to find the Probit constants. To do this we first find the Y values (From
table 2-4, you might need to do interpolation) as shown the in following table:

Dose of rotenone(mg/l) % of fatalities Y

10.2 88 6.18
7.7 85.71 6.06
5.1 52.17 5.05
 3.8 33.33 4.57
2.6 12 3.82

Now, to determine the equation parameters we can use excel (or any other software to find the
best fit line, one variable is Y and the other is ln(Dose))

The equation is
We find that the line is : y = 2.12 + 1.81x, where x is ln(dose) and y is Y.

Now, we can find the LC50

For 50% fatalities, Y =5 (see table 2.4)

Y = 2.12 + 1.81ln(dose)
5 = 2.12 + 1.81ln(dose)
(dose) = e2.88/1.81
Dose = 4.9 mg/l

Refer to Appendix G. (1) compare and comment on the TLV – TWA, STEL,C & PEL for
ammonia; do the trends make sense?, (2) for hydrogen cyanide, how can the PEL be greater
than the TLV-C; for 1 & 2 what values would you use in designing a ventilation system?

Typically the TWA is the lowest value, STEL is somewhat higher and the Ceiling is the highest.
TWA is the time weighted average exposure concentration that a worker may be subjected to
without any noticeable effects in short or long term. Ceiling is the concentration that should
never be exceeded, even for one instant. STEL is the Short Term Exposure Limit, which is a
running 15-minute average concentration. The instantaneous concentrations may exceed the
STEL value as long as they never exceed the Ceiling, and the 15-minute running average never
exceeds the STEL limit.
(1) In case of ammonia, TLV-TWA is 25 ppm, TLV-STEL is 35 ppm while TLV-C is 50 ppm.
This trend makes sense when we look at the definitions above. The OSHA 8 hr PEL is the legal
limit while the TLV values are conservative guidelines that tend to be lower than the OSHA PEL
values.

(2) For the case of hydrogen cyanide we see that the TLV-C value is lower than the OSHA 8-
hour PEL value. As mentioned earlier, this is because the TLV limits are more conservative and
tend to be lower.

It is always better to be on the safer side and design ventilation systems using the TLV-TWA
values.

Solutions to Homework 2b (Due 9/13) … 40 pts total, 10 pts per prbl

13-8 Describe why accident investigation recommendations must include recommendations to

improve the management system.

If you only developed recommendations for the specific accident, then only that type of accident
would be eliminated. Developing an improved management system, however, eliminates many
accidents, including types different from the specific accident that occurred. It also reduces the
chance of an incident at other facilities that use the same management system, which is a major
incentive for larger companies with many facility sites.

13-16 Near-miss (close-call) accident investigation reports are also important. Define near-miss
accidents. Compare your answer to CCPS’s (1992, p. 239).

A near miss is an event or hazard that does not result in injury, illness or damage, but had the
potential to do so. Near misses should be reported, regardless of how severe, in order to ensure
that the appropriate steps are taken to prevent a recurrence in which serious injury or loss may
occur.

CCPS

Process Safety Near Miss:

• Any significant release of a hazardous substance that does not meet the threshold for a "Process
Safety Incident” lagging metric, or
• A challenge to a safety system, where: Challenges to a safety system can be divided into the
following categories:
• Demands on safety systems (pressure relief devices, safety instrumented systems, mechanical
shutdown systems),
• Primary containment inspection or testing results outside acceptable limits
• Process deviation or excursion
Referring to the natural gas transmission pipeline incident analysis on page 23, (1) what are the
three leading causes of incidents over the timeframe studied, and (2) what initiatives would you
recommend to reduce these three leading causes of gas releases, fires & explosions?

The three leading causes of the incidents were:

(1) Corrosion, (2) equipment failure, and (3) material failure of pipe or weld.
.
Recommendations:
(1) Thorough review of corrosion related incidents (in terms of internal / external, type of
pipe (steel, copper, …), underground / above ground, in water).
(2) Program in place to prevent corrosion in terms of replacing older steel lines or uncoated
lines, monitoring of corrosion inside pipe, etc
(3) Analysis of the types of equipment failures, materials of construction, etc.

Your employer, Irish Refining Co., just experienced a significant fire & explosion with two
fatalities at their South Bend refinery. As SHE Mgr, (1) outline the steps and actions you would
take to conduct a thorough incident investigation. (2) who would you interview? (3) what plant
records / info would you request?

Solution:
1.
a. Report the incident to management and appropriate authorities (Internal, external
reporting). Initial assessment. Determine the degree of investigation warranted.
b. Form the team
c. Collect information
d. Develop the sequence of events
e. Identify causal factors
f. Analyze causal factors to determine root causes(s)
g. Develop recommendations/action item list
h. Assign responsibility / accountability and timeline for follow up

2. Who would you interview?

Any people involved in the incident or that may have information related to the incident.
There are direct witnesses and indirect witnesses. The following should be interviewed:

 Eye witnesses
 Victims
 On-shift and Off-shift operators
 First responders – Emergency response team members, firefighters
 Supervisors
 Maintenance staff
  Any contractors present at the moment
 Janitorial, shipping, laboratory, regular delivery personnel – although not
involved in operations, they may have valuable information

3. What plant records / info would you request?

Examples: training, maintenance, inspection and testing records, operating procedures,

log sheets, batch sheets, strip charts, PHAs, contractor records, in some cases medical
records, risk management decisions and documents, completions of actions and
recommendations.

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