J. Cent. South Univ.

(2019) 26: 665−672

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11771-019-4037-3

Reliability analysis of a composite laminate using estimation theory

Esmail SADEGHIAN, Sina TOOSI

Department of Marine Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

© Central South University Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Abstract: Composite laminates are made up of composite single-plies sequence. The plies generally have the same
fiber and resin and their difference in fiber orientation results in a difference in various laminates' strength. Tsai-Hill
failure criterion as a limiting state function to analyze structural reliability of a composite laminate and estimation
theory in order to estimate statistical parameters of effective stress were utilized to construct probability box. Finally,
we used the Monte Carlo simulation and FERUM software to calculate the upper and lower bounds of probability of
failure.

Key words: composite laminate; structural reliability; probability box; estimation theory; stress analysis

Cite this article as: Esmail SADEGHIAN, Sina TOOSI. Reliability analysis of a composite laminate using estimation
theory [J]. Journal of Central South University, 2019, 26(3): 665–672. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11771-019-4037-3.

ply level failure criterion considering loading as

1 Introduction
Composite laminate is widely used in
structural elements in construction of the vessel and
other mechanical systems. Composite vessels are
usually exposed to various loadings in different
environment. Therefore, in order to prevent from
unknown failures, it is necessary to investigate and
analyze the reliability of structures before their
implementation.
In recent decades, many studies have been
conducted on investigating the probable failure
methods and its reliability in composite structures.
First, YANG et al [1, 2] used this method to
estimate the strength of composite laminate. They
utilized Tsai-Hann failure criterion as well as
random variables, including loading and strength of
composite, to study ply level. Due to the
complexity of failure concept, they used step by
step estimating procedure of uniaxial stress
reliability. Shortly after that, CEDERBAUM et al
[3] employed B-method developed by HASOFER
et al [4] to laminate plates. They investigated Hasin
Received date: 2017-05-27; Accepted date: 2018-11-10
Corresponding author: Sina TOOSI; Tel: +98-9120175930; E-mail: Sinatoosi@aut.ac.ir; ORCID: 0000-0002-3544-1450
random variable. By development of studies on
composites, WETHERHOLD et al [5] comprised
different methods of reliability calculation for a
specific case using Tsai-Han and Tsai-Wu failure
criteria while considering loading and strength as
random variables. SOARES [6] established a
general framework for calculating reliability of
laminate surface. He provided an overall viewpoint
about methods used for laminate using failure
criteria of Tsai-Han and Tsai-Wu while taking into
account loading and strength as random variables,
as well as applying reliability equations system in
limit state. The validity of Soares’s study results
were also confirmed by DI SCIUVA et al [7]. In
their study, a laminate was evaluated under
distributed pressure in the middle section. The
failure criterion of the study was buckling failure
and loading; strength, rigidity and geometry were
used as random variables. Their results had an
acceptable level of accuracy.
The reliability based optimal design of
geometrically non-linear composite structures using
hierarchical genetic algorithms proposed by
666
ANTONIO [8]. NGAH et al [9] provided an
application of different methods of reliability
estimation in a composite panel exposed to random
loading and finally extracted covariance and
probability density function. CARBILLET et al
[10] chose second-moment-FORM (first-order
reliability method) method to determine safety
factors in the design of composite laminate with
strongly non-linear behavior. NOH [11] utilized
stochastic finite element method to analyze the
laminated composite plate. He assumed five
parameters of material that are random and used
means of correlation functions to model the
correlations these random parameters. WANG et al
[12] carried out a series of compression and shear
tests on a laminated composite and then
investigated the reliability by Monte Carlo and
improved first-order second-moment methods.
LOPEZ et al [13] employed a full characterization
method to assess the reliability of laminated
composite plates and showed that this method has
some advantages in comparison with the First-order
reliability method (FORM), which has been widely
use. PATEL et al [14] analyzed a composite plate
under low-velocity impact and Gaussian response
surface method used as a probability of failure
function. Uncertainty parameters are properties of
composite material, loading condition, and
assessment of critical stress. Using sensitivity
analysis, they concluded that shear strength and
elastic modulus exert the most influence on the
composite plate reliability. HAERI et al [15]
applied an advanced Kriging model to approximate
the mechanical model of the structure. They
employed Tsai-Wu criterion as a limit state function
in reliability analysis.
Several methods to calculate reliability in
composite structures have been provided according
to previous conducted studies; however,
nonexistence of certain framework for utilization of
these methods, their failure criteria, statistical
analysis of mechanical parameters, and even their
results is obvious. Hence, reliability analysis on
composite requires further investigations due to the
inherent variability in the behavior of materials.
In the present study, we analyzed first ply
failure probability of composite laminate by
utilizing the estimation theory to describe imprecise
J. Cent. South Univ. (2019) 26: 665–672
probability function of effective stress. Moreover,
Monte Carlo simulation and FERUM software were
applied to calculate the reliability index.
2 Reliability of composite structures
A need for applying uncertainty-based
approaches in engineering topics has been known
for a long time. Applying random parameters is
very important in the structural design issues,
especially in composite structures. In formulation of
the structural reliability approach of composite
laminates, strength parameters are modeled
corresponding to each of the plies and at lower
levels of mechanical properties of fibers, resins,
orientation of fibers, and geometry of each ply as
random variables with a degree of dependence.
From strength perspective, the failure of a
composite laminate is divided into two categories
[16]. One is last ply failure resulted by crack in the
resin field, and the other one is the first ply failure
resulted by separation of the layers, crack in the
resin and fiber failure.
In the present study, the first ply failure
approach has been used to analyze structural
reliability of a composite laminate.
3 Limit state function and random
variables
The final strength of a composite laminate
depends on the strength of each of the single layers
and their arrangement. Over the last 30 years,
several failure criteria have been introduced and
developed to describe the failure mechanism of
composite laminates. Tsai-Hill failure criterion for
composite elements under stress in the main
direction is as follows [17].
2 2 2
  1    1 2    2  12 
   2      1
   (1)
 X 1   X 2   Y   S 
In Eq. (1), each of variables, X1, X2 and Y is
determined based on first ply failure stress tensor:
  u 2T if  2  0
Y  (2)
u
 2C if  2  0
  u if  2  0
X1   1T (3)
u
 1C if  2  0
J. Cent. South Univ. (2019) 26: 665–672 667

  u if  2  0
X 2   1T (4)
u
 1C if  2  0

Therefore, the limit state function is

formulated based on the introduced failure criterion.
2 2 2
           
G ( X 1 ,  2 , )  1   1    1 22    2    12 
 X 1   X 2   Y   S 
(5)
Finally, the failure occurrence condition is
defined as G ( X1 ,  2 , )  0 regarding the concept
of limit state function. The failure condition is
unsafe regions for occurrence, which have been
Figure 2 Flowchart of stress analysis in composite
defined based on the general distinction between laminate
resistance and strength of structure. The geometric
explanation of limit state function has been A four-UD-ply with configuration of [0/90]s
provided in Figure 1. under tensile loading is considered. The laminate
failure has been analyzed with the assumption of
plane stresses. By considering this assumption, the
stiffness matrix alters from six-in-six form to
orthotropic plane matrix which is three-in-three
matrix.
Table 1 shows the geometric and mechanical
properties of composite laminate under study.

Table 1 Properties of composite sheet and imposed loads

Characteristic Value
Material type Graphite/epoxy
Thickness of each ply/mm 1
Layer sequence [0/90]s
EL/GPa 139.4
Figure 1 Separation of safe and unsafe (failure) regions
by limit state function [18] ET/GPa 7.65
VLT 0.29
4 Stress analysis of a composite laminate GLT/GPa 4.35

A simple example of composite laminate under
axial tensile loading has been analyzed in order to
investigate the structural reliability of composite
elements. The strength statistical characteristics of
failed ply failure have been determined based on
selecting the first ply failure as the failure criterion
to reliability analysis and Tsai-Hill limit state
function using effective stress method. Before
determining effective stress statistical
characteristics, progressive failure analysis of
composite laminate is needed in order to determine
the first failed ply. Its procedure has been shown in
the following flowchart.
The composite plate with above properties was
modeled in MARC finite element software (see
Figure 3). Failure analysis results on the main
direction are shown in Figure 4.
As it can be seen from above diagram and
according to Tsai-Hill failure theory, the ply with
90-degree fiber orientation would fail sooner than
the other plies.
5 Effective stress and modifying limit
state function
After analyzing failure stress of considered
668
Figure 3 Finite element model of laminate under tensile
load
Figure 4 Failure index in two composite layers with
fiber orientation of 90° and 0°
laminate and determining failure stress tensor of
90° ply, it was observed that the component of
2
 
shear stress is equal to zero, so the term of  12 
 S 
in the limit sate function can be eliminated. Another
assumption of the present study was utilizing
effective stress criterion in order to reduce the
number of random variables. To determine the
equivalent stress at the first failed ply, the potential
function theory J 2A is used [19].
2 categories of point and distance. The point
 3N     N1212  R12 2 
1 2
J 2A  ij ij  Rij
i 1
1
 N11 11  R11  N 22 22  R22  
3
where Nij is the non-dimensional parameter used in
the laminate; Rij is the mean residual stress of
material used in the sample resin. The
micro-mechanical relations were used to calculate
these parameters. The symbol σij represents arrays
of plane stress tensors that have been created due to
the external loads in the sample. Therefore,
according to this theory, the effective stress J 2A is
defined as follows.
J. Cent. South Univ. (2019) 26: 665–672
 e  3 J 2A (7)
σ1 and σ2 stresses in the Tsai-Hill limit state
function are replaced by calculated effective stress.
However, it should be noted that the definition of
random behavior for the variables is needed to
analyze the probability of failure in considered ply.
This is because the component effective stress is
uncertain due to the existence of various
uncertainties inherent in the problem and, therefore,
statistical parameters such as mean and standard
deviation should be used to show it. For this
purpose, a method named Stochastic FEM has been
used in recent decades, which was ignored in the
present studies due to its complexities. In this work,
we used estimation theory to determine the bound
of mean and standard deviation of effective stress.
Adjusting proper probability distribution function
for effective stress of 90° ply, the overall form of
the limit state function was modified as follows:
2 2 2
       
G ( X 1 , X 2 , )  1   e    e    e  (8)
 X1   X 2   Y 
6 Estimation theory
Since stochastic finite element method
(SFEM) was not conducted in the present study, the
estimation theory was used to assign a proper
probability distribution function to the effective
stress random variable. The aim of estimation
theory is to estimate the parameters of statistical
population by having a limited number of samples.
The estimation is carried out using components
named estimator. Estimators are divided into two
estimator has a large number of errors which
depends on the volume of the sample. Generally, if
(6) sample size of random sample is less than 30 and
the distribution of the population is normal and the
population variance is considered equal to the
sample variance, then confidence level of
(1–α)100%, the population mean would be in below
range:
S S
X Z  X Z  (9)
n 1
2
n 1
2
According to Eq. (9), if α=5%, then μ can be
considered the population of effective stresses of
J. Cent. South Univ. (2019) 26: 665–672 669
90° ply with confidence level of 95% at below statistical population, the effective stresses which
range: lead to failure are defined at confidence level of
S S 95% and based on Tsai -Hill criterion as follows:
X Z 0.975    X  Z 0.975 (10)
n n 9.32 MPa<σ<28.69 MPa
In a same way, the estimation of σ variance of 2 22.97 MPa<μ<49.31 MPa
a population with confidence level of (1–α)100% Determined bound based on classic estimate
for σ2 from a normal population, when a random theory shows variation of statistical parameters;
sample would be selected with the size of n<30, is therefore, imprecise probability distribution
as follows. function for effective stress occurrence in this
(n  1) S 2 (n  1) S 2 bound can be defined based on Figure 5 which is
2  (11)
2   2 p-box.
1
2 2

2
where S is the variance of selected sample;  2
2

and  2  are chi-squared distribution with v=n–1

1
2

degree of freedom. In this section, statistical

population sample is required to estimate the
confidence level of mean and standard deviation.
For this purpose, the force-based diagram of
coefficient changes of Tsai-Hill failure was used. In
this way, the corresponding stress tensor of each
force and consequently the considered effective
stress tensor were calculated. Data gathering was
Figure 5 Effective stress p-box
continued to reach effective stress of the failure
which has been estimated based on Tsai-Hill. In
According to the occurred stress tensor in 90°
Table 2, the gathered samples based on diagram of
ply and Eqs. (2), (3) and (4), the values of statistical
Figure 4 have been represented.
parameters of each one of the random variables
have been provided in Table 3.
Table 2 Statistical sample of effective stresses imposed
to 90° ply based on Tsai-Hill criterion
Table 3 Values of statistical parameters and distribution
Number of Force/ Stress tensor of Equivalent
samples (MNꞏm–1) 90° ply effective stress type of them
1 0.207 {17.80 –3.45 0} 16.9 Standard
Random quantity Mean Distribution
deviation
2 0.255 {22.02 –4.25 0} 20.92 Effective (22.97, (9.32,
Normal
3 0.313 {27.03 –5.27 0} 25.09 stress, σe 49.31) 28.69)
Final longitudinal
4 0.382 {32.92 –6.31 0} 31.36 1060 2.1 Normal
strength, X1/MPa
5 0.465 {40.16 –7.76 0} 38.17 Final longitudinal
610 5.7 Normal
strength, X2/MPa
6 0.564 {48.14 –9.41 0} 46.3 Final transverse
120 6.3 Normal
7 0.645 {55.71 –10.77 0} 52.95 strength, Y/MPa

8 0.7 {60.48 –11.69 0} 57.47

Selected sample mean
Selected sample standard deviation
According to the sample size (n=8) and
provided definitions about the concept of distance
estimation, mean and standard deviation of the
So far, the range of changes in mean and
36.14
standard deviation of failure effective stress of
14.1
glass/epoxy composite plate with [0/90]s layering
under uniaxial loading, as well as the values of
other random variables of Tsai-Hill limit sate
function, has been calculated. Therefore, the effect
of selecting mean and standard deviation of
670 J. Cent. South Univ. (2019) 26: 665–672
effective stress on failure probability in glass/epoxy In order to investigate the accuracy of
composite laminate has been investigated using calculations, Monte Carlo simulation has been
FERUM software code. Results were compared to derived to calculate the failure probability of
that of Monte Carlo simulation. composite laminate under axial loading. For this
purpose, first, values of stochastic variables based
7 Results and discussion on assigned distribution type are generated; second,
values of limit state function are calculated.
Since stochastic finite element method Figure 7 represents the upper and lower bounds of
(SFEM) was not conducted in analyzing the limit state CDF.
effective stress of first failure ply and, consequently,
random field of effective stress was not available to
approximate its statistical parameters, it tried to
investigate the differences of failure probability
values and confidence coefficient through selecting
estimated mean values and standard deviation in the
distance with confidence level of 95%. The
parameters Pf and β have been calculated using
FERUM software code and its failure probability
analysis methods such as subset simulation and
FORM. Results are represented in Table 4.

Table 4 Failure probability and reliability index based

on changes in mean and standard deviation of effective Figure 7 Upper and lower bound of limit state CDF
stress
Statistical Failure probability of As shown, lower bound of Tsai-Hill limit state
Reliability
parameter of glass/epoxy laminate with function using one million iteration doesn't reach to
index
effective stress [0/90]s configuration
failure condition (G ()  0) . It means that failure
(22.97, 28.69) 5.7×10–4 3.25
probability is very low. For upper bound failure of
(36.13, 28.69) 1.8×10–3 2.90
Monte Carlo simulation, failure probability and
(49.3, 28.69) 7.5×10–3 2.40 reliability index are 7.14×10–3 and 2.45, respectively,
which are in good agreement with the results in
The results can also be represented as Figure 6. Table 4. In order to demonstrate the generated
According to Figure 6 and as it was expected, values of state function for upper and lower bound
the failure probability is increased with effective according to upper and lower of effective stress
stress’s mean values increasing in constant standard occurrence, Figure 8 is presented.
deviation and as a result, the reliability index has a Figure 8 shows that some of limit state
downward trend. function values for upper bound are less than zero.
In this situation failure occurs according to Tsai-Hill
failure criterion.
There is notable gap between limit state
function values for lower bound and failure
condition, meaning that failure probability is very
low, shown in Figure 9.

8 Conclusions

Estimation theory is one of the useful and

appropriate means in determining bounds of
Figure 6 Changes in reliability index based on changes statistical parameters variation of a random variable.
of mean effective stress In this paper, inherent uncertainties in determining
J. Cent. South Univ. (2019) 26: 665–672 671

Figure 8 Variation of limit state function values in proportion to effective stress of upper bound

Figure 9 Variation of limit state function values in proportion to effective stress of lower bound

exact values of mean and standard deviation of
effective stress are simulated using estimation
theory and calculation of the minimum number of
data as a sample. Simulation is carried out using
Monte Carlo and FERUM software, resulting in
determination of variation bound of failure
probability and reliability index. One of the notable
conclusions of this paper is achieving reasonable
results with the minimum number of data from a
random variable, requiring the least time and cost.
It should be noted that in the case of existence of
several numbers as random variables with
imprecise probability distribution function, full
interval analysis is required, an expensive and
672
time-consuming activity concerning estimated
widespread bound from estimation theory.
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中文导读
基于估计理论的复合材料层合板可靠性分析
摘要：复合层压板由复合单层序列组成。同一层通常具有相同的纤维和树脂，其纤维取向上的差异将
直接导致各种层合物强度的不同。本文利用 Tsai-Hill 失效准则作为分析复合材料层合结构可靠性的极
限状态函数和估算理论来估计有效应力的统计参数，构建概率盒。最后，使用蒙特卡罗模拟和 FERUM
软件来计算失效概率的上限和下限。
关键词：复合层压板；结构可靠性；概率框；估算理论；压力分析
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