Deep-Sea Research, 1972, Vol. 19, pp. I to 19. Pergamon Press. Printed in Great Britain.

Insensitivity of subtropical mode water characteristics

to meteorological fluctuations*

BRUCE A. WARREN~

(Received 27 May 1971; accepted23 June 1971)

Abstraet--A striking feature of subtropical mode water ('18" water' in the North Atlantic) is the lack
of change in its temperature and salinity despite exposure to the atmosphere under varying winter
conditions. A local, one-dimensional model is developed for the determination of mode water
characteristics, which agrees well with observations for mean conditions, in both the North Atlantic
and the North Pacific. The model is then used to estimate effects of reasonable weather fluctuations,
and it is found that the expected temperature and salinity changes lie within their small observed
ranges of variation. Because of the great thickness of the mode water layer, and the brief time actually
available in any one winter to modify it, winters would have to be very much more severe than really
occur to make any great change in its characteristics.

1. INTRODUCTION
A PROMINENTfeature of the western subtropical North Atlantic and Pacific is a lens
of nearly homogeneous water lying above the main thermocline. Generally it lies
beneath a secondary near-surface thermocline (non-seasonal), but in late winter it
outcrops at the sea surface near the northern b o u n d ~ e s of the subtropical gyres
(Fig. 1). This layer has been called '18 ° water' in the North Atlantic (WORTHINGTON,
1959; SCHROEDER,STOMMEL,MENZBL and SUTCLIFFE, 1959), although its temperature
actually decreases eastward to less than 17-5°C in the longitudes of the Grand Banks;
and 'subtropical mode water' in the North Pacific, where its temperature is also about
18°C due south of Honshu, but is more nearly 16.5°C to the eastward, over the
greater part of its areal extent (MASUZAWA, 1969). Because o f the temperature
variation, and despite the sanction which usage has given to the overly precise term
'18 ° water', we shall use 'subtropical mode water' as a convenient general term for
both distinctive layers.
Definite estimates for the variability in time o f subtropical mode water character-
istics are not available for the North Pacific, but, for the North Atlantic, WORTHmOTON
(1959) indicates 4-0.3°C in temperature and 4-0-10~oo in salinity. It has seemed
remarkable that these characteristics should change so little despite the noticeable
variations in wintertime surface conditions. Indeed the most common interpretation
o f subtropical mode water (WORTHINGTON, 1959) has been that winter cooling effects
massive sinking of surface water, which subsequently spreads southward beneath
warmer surface water drawn northward in the sinking process. If so, then changes
in the driving conditions should impose changes in the temperature and salinity of
the water in the convection cell.
*Contribution No. 2699 from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
tWeeds Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts.
1
 2 BRUCE A. WARREN

5874 5880 5885 5889 312_ 315 :520 325

-Om

200 --~ - 2 O0

400- ~ ~ 4OO

600- - 6OO

800 • ~ 1 ~ -800

I000- ' ~ ' "' -I000

O m
i' I i I I I I I I I I I I I
v°.o
I l I I I I I I I I t I
om
200,

400"

600-

800 - -800

1000 . . . . . . . . . , , ', , , , , ~" , , 1000

40*N 35* 30" 25* 20*N

Fig. 1. Composite meridional profiles of temperature (upper, *C) and salinity (lower, %°) illustrating
late winter conditions in the upper kilometer of the western North Atlantic. Atlantis Stas. 5874--5889,
9-14 April 1960; 40"00'N, 68"30'W to 33"00'N, 68"30'W. CrawfordStas. 312-325, 11-16 February
1958; 32"15'N, 64"40'W to 19"36'N, 68"04'W.

In this paper are presented some calculations concerning the effect of meteoro-
logical anomalies on mode water characteristics. The viewpoint adopted is that
subtropical mode water represents a local response of the ocean to surface heat
fluxes and thermocline geometry, and that its occurrence away from its 'formation'
region results from the general southward motion in the upper several hundred
meters of the subtropical North Atlantic and Pacific. This interpretation contrasts
with the large-scale convection cell proposed earlier, but the latter seems unsatis-
factory in that it requires northward surface flow in the subtropics during winter,
whereas current charts and dynamic topography seem to indicate a prevailing south-
ward motion. When we consider reasonable variations in winter atmospheric con-
ditions, we shall find that they can have only a negligible effect on the mode water
characteristics: in part, because the mode water layer is simply too thick to be affected
very much by the range of conditions which actually occur; and, in part, because most
of a winter's cooling must be spent on erasing the previous seasonal thermoeline,
leaving little time for modification of the mode water. This conclusion is not entirely
unexpected, but it seems worthwhile nonetheless to try to reconcile quantitatively the
observed steadiness of mode-water characteristics and the known variability of
weather conditions•
Before one can calculate the effects of anomalies, one requires a quantitative
model for the mean situation. Since none has been given before, and since the present
interpretation of the mode water differs from some earlier ideas, most of this paper
will be devoted to developing in detail those parts of the local one-dimensional model
mentioned above which are necessary for the anomaly calculations, and to testing
the model against mean conditions for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. At
 Insensitivityof subtropical mode water characteristicsto meteorologicalfluctuations 3

the very end we shall tum to the question of 'severe' winters and their effect on the
mode water.

2. LOCAL MODEL OF SUBTROPICAL MODE WATER

Subtropical mode water is 'formed', i.e. outcrops at the sea surface in late
winter, near the northwestern edges of the subtropical gyres of the North Atlantic
and Pacific. We suppose that the geometry of the main thermocline beneath it is
determined by the mechanisms responsible for the large-scale ocean circulation,
and we envisage the homogeneous layer of subtropical mode water as a way of
fitting the given vertical temperature gradient in the thermocline on to surface
temperatures forced by the local heat balance. Specifically, as will be seen below, the
local heat balance requires a late-winter surface temperature so low that it corresponds
to a temperature found several hundred meters below the sea surface in the main
thermocline. Since the seasonal thermocline reaches only to 100-200 m below the
sea surface, the 'top' of the main thermocline must remain throughout the year at a
temperature not greater than the late-winter surface minimum. Since the vertical
temperature variation in the main thermocline layer is virtually linear over its full
thickness (8-16°C, see Fig. 1), and since we do not regard this gradient as altered in
any way by the formation of mode water, we infer the resulting temperature profile
by extrapolating the thermocline upward until it reaches the winter minimum surface
temperature. The temperature profile therefore includes a homogeneous layer, which
we identify with the subtropical mode water, lying between the main thermocline
and any seasonal thermocline.
In this picture, vertical advection and diffusion of heat are disregarded because,
as one can easily verify, they are both probably an order of magnitude smaller than
components of the heat flux across the sea surface. (See Section 5 for comment on
the parameters entering the vertical fluxes). Horizontal advection and diffusion of
heat are also omitted: in part, because as a simple matter of observation isotherms
in the upper few hundred meters are level in the formation region of mode water
(Fig. 1), and in part, because on rather general grounds one expects negligible horizon-
tal temperature gradients here. Both the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio flow so swiftly
as to transport warm surface cores into high latitudes, leading to bands of relatively
warm near-surface water along the northern boundaries of their gyres at all seasons.
These advective features insulate the water immediately beneath them from local
effects of surface heat flux. Consequently as one proceeds southward from these
strong currents the temperature in the near-surface water first decreases until one
is beyond any noticeable effect of the southward discharge from the currents, after
which the temperature increases again in response to the progressively greater heat
input in lower latitudes. We identify the formation region for mode water as the area
of minimum surface temperature, where the meridional temperature gradient is zero,
and where, if the area is sufficiently broad, both the meridional advective and diffusive
heat transports must also be zero. (The zonal scale of temperature variation is so
large that zonal gradients can be neglected at once).
The remaining heat fluxes are all surface fluxes, which are calculated from
meteorological parameters and the surface temperature. We make the over-simplifica-
tion here that the meteorological parameters are given quantities, independent of the
4 BRuc~ A. WARREN

surface temperature, whereby the surface temperature can be regarded as forced

by the atmosphere. In fact, of course, the ocean and atmosphere are mutually inter-
acting across the sea surface, but it is not clear how to handle both actions together.
As a little justification for taking the interaction to be a one-way process, we may
note (e.g. Tables 1 and 3, below) that the annual cycles in air temperature and specific
humidity in the areas of concern lead those in surface temperature by about half a
month, suggesting that the local effect of atmosphere on ocean is more pronounced
than that of ocean on atmosphere.
To calculate the water temperature, we consider the heat balance in a column
of water of unit horizontal cross-sectional area, reading, from the sea surface down
into the main thermocline, say to a depth of 500-600 m:
dU
dt -- QR-- Q ~ - Q s - QE (1)

where dU/dt is the time-rate of change of the internal energy of the column, QR
is the short-wave solar radiation absorbed across the sea surface, Q8 is the net long-
wave radiation emitted from the sea surface, and Qs and Qe are the sensible and
evaporative heat flaxes from the ocean into the atmosphere. We next give empirical
formulae for the Q's, make some simplified representations of dU/dt in terms of
surface temperature, and then do initial-value problems to obtain the annual temper-
ature cycles and winter minimum temperatures.
Following Bt~RLIAND(1960) we express QR (cal cm -2 sec -1) as
QR = Q0[1 - (a + 0.38n)n](1 - ~) (2)
where Qo is the short-wave radiation incident through a clear atmosphere on the
Earth's surface, n is the fractional cloud cover over the sky, a is a coefficient which
ranges from 0.35--0.38 for the latitudes with which we shall be concerned, and
is the albedo of the water surface, taken as 0.07 from BUDYKO'S (1956) Table 6.
Mean monthly values of Qo for five-degree intervals of latitude are tabulated by
BERLIAND (1960), and quarterly maps of fractional cloud cover are included in the
Atlas of Climatic Charts of the Ocean (McDONALD, 1939).*
For the long-wave radiation under clear skies QB', we follow BUDYKO (1956)
and use an expression derived theoretically by BERLIAND and BERLIAND (1952):
QB' = s~04(0"39 -- 0.05e~) (3)
where s is the infra-red emissivity of the sea surface, for which we use an average
0.98 of rough-sea values given by SAUND~ (1968)¢, ~ is the Boltzmann constant
(1.356 x 10 -12 cal sec -1 cm -2 deg-4), 0 is the absolute temperature (°K) of the
sea surface, and e is the vapor pressure in mb at ship's level. It is worth noting that,
although various investigations are consistent with the above form for QB', they differ
concerning the actual numbers: mean values cited by BRUNT (1944) of several empirical
determinations of the coefficients in parentheses in (3) were half again as large as
given here. On the other hand, this version is in good agreement with more recent

*Surprisingly, in view of its age, this Atlas provides much readier access to usefd mean climato-
logical data than any more modem sources with which I am familiar.
1"The figure 0.98 applies to the infra-red window 800--1200em-x. For the integrated radiation
considered here, Saunders (personal communication) recommends his calculations (1968) of 0.990-
0.996, pertaining to the infra-red region 200--4000cm -1, as more appropriate. Since the difference
is slight, the present results have not been corrected for the discrepancy.
 Insensitivityof subtropical mode water characteristics to meteorologicalfluctuations 5

measurements by BOLZ and FALCKENBURG(1949), while BERLIAND and BFV,LL~'~D

(1952) believe that the earlier measurements suffered from bad instrumental calibra-
tion. To obtain the back radiation appropriate to cloudy skies, we adopt Budyko's
correction factor:
QB = QB'(1 - cn a)
where c ranges from 0-59 to 0.68 for the latitudes of concern (BuDYKO, 1956, Table 8).
Since the percentage change in 0 is small in the ocean it is convenient to linearize
04 about 22°C = 295°K. We define T = 0 -- 295, expand (T + 295) 4, and drop all
terms of order higher than first in T/295; the error is less than 1% for all temperatures
in the range 12-32°C. Thus:
QB -- 10.06 × 10-a(1 + 0"0136T)(0"39 -- 0.05eJ)(1 -- cn 2) (4)
where the units are cal cm-2 see-1.
For the sensible heat flux Qs, we employ a formula used by RIEHL, YEH, MALKOS
and LASEuR, (1951) and explained further by MALKUS(1962):
Qs = 4-16 x l O - ~ ( r - Ta)ua (5)
where T~ is the air temperature at ship's level (as with the water temperature, the
increment over 22°C), u~ is the wind speed (cm/sec) at ship's level, and the units of
Qs are cal cm- 2 sec- 1. Quarterly maps of average wind speed are given by McDoNALD
(1938), as well as maps showing the average monthly air temperature over each
five-degree square in the North Atlantic and Pacific.
The evaporative heat flux is usually expressed in a similar form:

QE = KL[q,(T) -- q~lu~ (6)

where qs(T) is the saturation specific humidity at sea surface temperature T (g/kg),
q~ is the specific humidity of the air at ship's level, L is the latent heat of condensation
of water vapor (here taken as 585 cal/g, for a temperature of 20°C), and K is a pro-
portionality constant. As a value of K, we adopt an empirical determination by
SVm~DRUP (1951), K = 1.60 × 10 -6 g/cm a, appropriate for Lats. 10-25°N (data
were not available for higher northern latitudes); the calculation was based on direct
evaporation estimates made by Wi~ST (1936), in comparison with very accurate
meteorological observations taken during the Meteor Expedition. The determination
can be criticized on several counts, but it seems to be the best founded, wholly
empirical one available; it also agrees to better than 10% with a semi-theoretical
estimate made on entirely different grounds by RIEm~, YF.H, MALKUS and LASmJR
(1951) and MALKUS(1962). On the other hand, this value for K is only about two-
thirds as large as those obtained by JA¢OBS (1942) and BUDYKO(1956) with different
methods and from different data.
For convenience we linearize q~(T) from tabulated values of saturation vapor
pressure over pure water in the Smithsonian Meteorological Tables (LIST, 1951),
and ignore the slight reduction of qs(T) by sea salt (<:2%). A least-squares fit to
values at 18, 20, 22, 24, and 26°C for a sea-surface pressure of 1020 rob, gives
q,(T) = 16.32 + 0.989T, with maximum error over the range considered of 1.6%.
Thus our final formula for Qe, in cal cm- ~ sec-1, is:
Qe = 0.936 × 10-tu~(0.989T + 16.32 -- 10aq~). (7)
6 BJtucE A. WAmaE~

Values of qa are less accessible than the other atmospheric parameters introduced,
but McDONALD 0938) includes quarterly-mean maps of wet-bulb depression.
These show only small seasonal variation, and can be combined with the monthly-
averaged air temperatures to yield monthly values of specific humidity.
With Q0, Ta, qa, ua, n regarded as given quantities, dU/dt in (1) is specified as a
function of time and surface temperature after substitution of formulas (2), (4), (5)
and (7), and (1) reduces to a form of Newtonian cooling:
dU
-- F(t) -- G(t)r. (8)
dt
It works out, with the climatological data to be considered below, that the time
dependence can be approximated closely by trigonometric functions:
dU
-- A -- B cos (tot + ~b) -- [C + D cos (tot + 0Q]T (9)
dt
where to = 1.99 x 10 -7 see- 1 is the angular frequency of the Earth's motion about
the sun, and 4, ~ are phases to be estimated from the data. The determination of
surface temperature by radiation and atmospheric conditions is now explicit.
We next require a representation of dU[dt in terms of T. Since the surface
temperature does not respond instantaneously to changes in atmospheric conditions,
the formation and destruction of the seasonal thermoeline cannot be neglected in
determining the late-winter minimum temperature. It is not necessary for present
purposes to model the seasonal thermocline in exact detail; all that is needed is some
sort of seasonal heat storage of about the right magnitude, specified by the right
surface temperature. Accordingly, we represent it during the heating period as a
layer having linear temperature decrease with depth, of thickness y ( T - Tw), where
Tw is the temperature of the isothermal layer at the end of the previous winter, and
y is the reciprocal of the average seasonal thermocline temperature gradient, as taken
from observations. Then during summer heating, until T reaches a maximum,
dU dT
dt -- pc~y(T -- Tw) d-'~ (10a)

where p is a mean water density and c~ a mean specific heat at constant pressure.
We model the destruction of the seasonal thermocline by the development of a
progressively thicker and cooler isothermal layer lying above the water with the
constant vertical temperature gradient, 1/y. (We ignore effects of salinity on hydro-
static stability). Therefore during the time when dT/dt < 0, until T falls below Tw,
dU dT
dt -- pc~y(Ts -- T) d-'7 (10b)

where Ts is the previous summer maximum temperature.

The surface temperature oscillates about some annual mean temperature, but
we do not know this value a priori; it and the annual range of temperature must be
obtained as a limit-cycle solution to an initial-value problem, starting from some
specified initial state. We take this state arbitrarily to be a linear extrapolation of the
actual main thermocline up to the surface, i.e., we let the temperature decrease from
the surface at a rate lift, where 1/fl is the vertical temperature gradient in the main
 Insensitivity of subtropical mode water characteristics to meteorological fluctuations 7

thermocline, and we choose the surface temperature TO so that the deeper values
match actual thermoeline temperatures. As implied earlier, values of To work out
to be much too high to be compatible with the annual heat balance; consequently, as
time progresses, the extrapolated main thermoeline gradually erodes away, with the
periodic appearance and disappearance of a seasonal thcrmocline (whose amplitude
increases with time), until the surface temperature cycle has fallen to a level where the
annual heat balance can be maintained without further secular change. We model
the erosion of the extrapolated main thermocline in the same way as the destruction
of the seasonal thermocline, and represent dU[dt during continued cooling after the
disappearance of a seasonal thermocline (i.e. when dT[dt < 0, but T is less than the
previous winter minimum temperature) as:
dU dT
d"-i = Pc~fl(To -- I") d"t " (10c)

The several representations of dU/dt introduce some complication, but the

essential simplicity of the system is readily apparent in an approximate version of (9).
Values of D work out to be much smaller than C (see below), and hence can be
disregarded without gross error. If we also linearize dU/dt by introducing appropriate
mean values o f ( r -- Tw), (Ts -- T),and (TO -- T) in (10a, b, c), then Tbecomes just a
sinusoidally driven, damped harmonic oscillator of zero mass. Specifically, if we
disregard the transient (the erosion of the extrapolated main thermocline) and look
only at the limit cycle, the amplitude of the annual temperature variation T* is the
appropriate average of both (T -- Tw) and (Ts -- T) in (10a, b). The solution of this
approximate form for (9) is then a sinusoidal function of time, which has an annual
mean value A/C, and lags the forcing function by a time oJ-1 tan-l(pc~yT*o~/C).
The amplitude T* is not known beforehand, of course, but can be found by setting
the amplitude of the solution (which itself contains T* as a determining parameter)
equal to T*. Thus
T* - ~ 4B'o~'p'c~y' ) ' _
2'ospc,, [ ( 1 + C' 1]'. (11)

Accurate solutions to (9) require numerical integration, of course; the linearized,

constant coefficient approximation is introduced at this point only to make physically
clear what is happening in the model.
The procedure outlined for handling (9) implicitly treats the water column as
remaining at a fixed geographic position. We do not mean to suggest that the mode
water is really motionless, since it does circulate in the subtropical gyres, or that its
temperature is really brought about in the particular sequence outlined. Rather, we
use this procedure to get some idea of the response time of the system, and to find
the annual temperature cycle for the formation region for mode water, which we
believe is determined by the heat balance (1).

3. NORTH A T L A N T I C

The formation region in the North Atlantic covers an extensive area, but appears
to center around 35°N, 60°W. Monthly values of the atmospheric and radiation
parameters, obtained from the sources already cited, are listed for this position in
8 BRUCE A. WARREN

Table 1. Mean monthly climatological data for the position 35°N, 60°W.
Qo (cal cm -~ see-1) n u,(kn) Ta('C) qa(g/kg) T,,('C)
J 4"07 X 10-3 0.65 19 16-4 9'6 19.1
F 5-32 X 10-3 0"65 19 15'7 9.1 18"3
M 6"71 X 10-3 0-60 16 16.1 9.4 18.1
A 7"97 X 10-a 0"60 16 17.4 10.3 18-7
M 8.84 X 10-3 0-60 16 20.1 12"3 20.4
J 9'12 X 10-a 0"50 12 23.0 14.7 22.9
J 8.97 X 10-3 0"50 12 25"4 17.1 25.2
A 8.17 X 10-3 0.50 12 26.2 18.0 26.2
S 6.90 x 10-3 0-55 14 25-2 16.8 25.7
O 5"59 x 10-3 0-55 14 22"8 14"4 24.1
N 4"34 x 10-3 0.55 14 20"1 12"1 22"1
D 3"70 X 10-3 0.65 19 17.7 10-5 20-3

Table 1. A l s o included are observed m o n t h l y - m e a n values o f sea-surface t e m p e r a t u r e

Tss, which are given b y MCDONALD (1938) with the air temperatures.
Cloudiness, w i n d speed, a n d wet-bulb depression were r e a d off c o n t o u r e d m a p s o f
q u a r t e r l y means at 35°N, 60°W. The t e m p e r a t u r e s listed are averages o f the m o n t h l y
means for the four five-degree squares s u r r o u n d i n g 35°N, 60°W; thus these numbers,
as well as the specific h u m i d i t y figures (because o f the w a y they were obtained),
actually represent the square 30--40°N, 55-65°W.
Expressions o f the f o r m (8) were calculated for each m o n t h ' s data. The values
o f F(t) so o b t a i n e d showed very nearly sinusoidal variation, with the m i n i m u m at the
end o f J a n u a r y ; a cosine curve was fitted to the m o n t h l y values b y a least-squares
calculation o f amplitude. The function G(t) was less clearly defined in t h a t it varies
a l m o s t exclusively with wind speed, for which only q u a r t e r l y m e a n values were
available; the c o m p u t e d values were consistent with a m a x i m u m at the end o f J a n u a r y ,
however, a n d on that basis a cosine curve was fitted to the J a n u a r y , April, July a n d
O c t o b e r values by a n o t h e r least-squares calculation o f amplitude. The resulting
numerical expression o f (9) is:

dU
-- 0.66 x 10 -3 - - 7.15 x 10 -3 cos tot - - (1.071 + 0.271 cos tat) x 10-aT, (12)
dt
where it is u n d e r s t o o d that tot -----0 or an integral multiple o f 27r a t the end o f January.
As the initial state we a d o p t a thermocline with 15°C at a d e p t h o f 600 m, a n d
fl = 50 m / d e g (see Fig. 1); the initial surface t e m p e r a t u r e is then 27°C, o r T O = 5 °.
W e t a k e ~ = 15 m / d e g to represent the seasonal thermocline, as i n d i c a t e d by
SCI-IROED•R, STOMMEL, MENZEL a n d SUTCLIFFE (1959, Fig. 1); a n d c~ = 0"93 cal
g - 1 deg-1, p = 1-026 g/cm 8.
Starting at t = 0 (mid-winter), (12) was i n t e g r a t e d numerically until subsequent
winter m i n i m u m t e m p e r a t u r e s differed b y <0"01°C. * Fifteen years were required to
achieve this equilibrium state, suggesting a very sluggish response o f the system to
changes. I n the final limit cycle, the a n n u a l m e a n t e m p e r a t u r e was 21-8°C, the s u m m e r
m a x i m u m 25.9°C, a n d the winter m i n i m u m 18.1°C. As m a y be seen in Table 1,

*For computational stability, the integration was actually carried out for U = U(t); values of
T ~ T(U) were then calculated at each time-step.
 Insensitivity of subtropical mode water characteristics to meteorological fluctuations 9

these figures compare very favorably with the observed annual mean of 21-8°C, summer
maximum of 26.2°C, and winter minimum of 18-1°C. The final depth of the isothermal
layer at the end of winter was 445 m, which also compares well with observation
(Fig. 1), but this follows automatically from getting the minimum temperature fight,
with the given initial temperature distribution.
Figure 2 is included to illustrate the slow development of the isothermal layer.
Even after more than seven years the minimum temperature is 0.2°C above its asympto-
tic value. One reason, of course, is that during most of the year the 'main thermocline'
water is shielded from the surface heat flux by the seasonal thermoclin¢. In the
eighth winter the main thermocline is exposed to atmospheric cooling for about one
month, but this has little effect because of the great thickness of the isothermal layer
above, which must also be cooled. The suggestion, obviously, is that short-term
meteorological fluctuations will not have much effect on the mode water, but we
reserve detailed calculations until Section 7.
In Fig. 3 the asymptotic annual surface temperature cycle is compared with the
observed temperature variation in the vicinity of 35°N, 60°W (plotted from the values
in Table 1). The amplitude agreement is good, as noted above, and the phase is also

0 4:0 8.0 12.0 x I0 7 $eC

2S'C I 1 J .L l L I ~ L .L 1
°

24
22
20
~e - I | >2s | >2e
OM

_
I00

-- 2 0 0

-- 300
20'
-- 400
18 18
-- 500

26"(

24

22

20

t8 l - 26 ! !
--OM

100

-- 200

f 300
4O0
18 t8
[ 1 T [ T T r 1 T I- T - - 500
12.0 16.0 20.0 ;)4,0 x t 0 7 $e¢

Fig. 2. Plots of surface temperature (upper, "C) and temperature of the upper 500 m against time
(sec), calculated from climatological data for 35"N, 60"W, illustrating the gradual development of a
homogeneous layer from an initial linear distribution of temperature in the vertical. Arrows indicate
time at which seasonal thormocline vanishes.
10 BRUCE A. WARREN

30°C -
. . ."*'"""""..
28-

26-
f.... I///I "~.

."."g/ ~
24-

22-
\
20-

18

16

t4

I, 1 i i i i

Fig. 3. Calculated asymptotic annual surface temperature cycle at 35"N, 60*W (solid line); observed
surface temperature variation at 35"N, 60"W (dashed line); surface temperature variation imposed
by meteorological forcing at 35"N, 60*W if the ocean had zero heat capacity (dotted line).

fairly good at the end of winter; at the end of summer, however, the observed cycle
leads the calculated variation by about one month. Probably this is due to the very
simplified model of the seasonal thermocline: in nature, the seasonal thermocline
continues to deepen after the surface temperature has begun to fall (ScnROEDER,
STOMMEL, MENZELand SUTCLIFFE, 1959), whereas its depth has been held constant
here. Thus the internal energy in the water column (which the theoretical temperature
calculations reflect directly) actually continues to increase for a time in the ocean
after the surface temperature passes its maximum.
Also included in Fig. 3 is a plot of the surface temperature which would obtain
if the ocean had zero heat capacity and responded instantaneously to meteorological
variations; it is the solution to (9) with dU/dt =-- O. The amplitude is nearly twice
that of the other curves, indicating again how the formation and destruction of a
seasonal thermocline damp the annual temperature variation imposed on the ocean.
The mean annual temperature here is about 0.4°C higher than the values cited pre-
viously, resulting from the correlation between T and G(t) in (8).
Because of the evident role of seasonal heat storage in determining the temperature
of the mode water in the model, it is well to verify that error in our representation of
the seasonal thermocline would not invalidate the results. The numerical integration
described above was therefore re-run for y = 20 m/deg (deeper thermoeline) and
~, = 10 m/deg (shallower thermocline). For y = 20 m/deg the asymptotic winter
 Insensitivityof subtropical mode water characteristicsto meteorologicalfluctuations 11

minimum temperature was 18.4°C and the summer maximum was 25.4°C. For
), = 10 m/deg, the corresponding values were 17"7°C and 26.6°C. Thus misrepre-
sentation of the seasonal thermocline in the model would probably not affect the
calculation of the mode water temperature by more than a few tenths of a degree.
It is only in a narrow band of latitudes that a deep isothermal layer of water
extends from the sea surface to the main thermocline in late winter (Fig. 1). Therefore
it is also well to verify that the model does not permit such a layer elsewhere too.
We can do so by estimating winter minimum temperatures, from which the depth
of the isothermal layer can be inferred directly, at other latitudes along Long. 60°W.
Since great accuracy is not required here, we can dispense with the detailed numerical
integration, and use the asymptotic winter minimum temperatures Twz given by
the linearized, constant-coefficient approximation to (9). It follows from (11) that
TWL is given as:

Twt. = 22.0 + A C 1+ 1 (13)

C 2JtOpCp7 C~ ]

Similarly, we need not trouble to calculate F(t) and G(t) in (8) for every month of
the year to obtain values for A, B, and C in (9). Instead we calculate expressions of
the form (8) for the extreme months of the year, February and August, from the data
sources previously cited, and estimate A as the average of the two F values, B as
half the difference between the F values, and C as the average of the two G values.
(D, of course, is neglected in this approximation). The February and August climato-
logical data for Long. 60°W, Lats. 20, 25, 30, 35, and 40°N are listed in Table 2
(sources as above), together with the calculated values of A, B, C, T*, and TWL.
Also included is the parameter a which appears in formula (2), as listed by B~RLIAND
(1960), and the parameter c of formula (4) (BuoYKO, 1956, Table 8).
At Lat. 35°N the approximate value Twn is lower than the exact winter minimum
previously calculated, but only by 0.9°C. About half of this difference comes from
neglecting D in the expression for G(t) [actually T and G(t) are highly correlated],
the rest from the linearization. It appears that at 20°N and 25°N the winter minima
are too high to allow any isothermal layer at all, if referred to the extrapolated thermo-
cline which was used as the initial state for the numerical integrations, while at
30°N, the minimum temperature would require a layer only about 200 m thick. At
40°N the winter minimum is low enough to demand a very deep isothermal layer if
referred to the initial state above, but 40°N is north of the Gulf Stream, where the
main thermocline is some 600 m shallower than in the Sargasso Sea, and the previous
initial state is therefore irrelevant here. (The value of TwL at 40°N is actually in fair
agreement with observed winter surface temperatures in the slope water). Thus it is
only between 30°N, say, and the Gulf Stream that one should expect to find the deep
homogeneous layer in late winter. (As will be discussed in Section 6, a heat balance of
the form of (1) is probably not so applicable south of 30°N as at 35°N, but this broad
conclusion should remain valid).
Use of (13) also provides a convenient way of estimating the uncertainty in the
minimum-temperature calculation which is associated with uncertainty in the heat
flux formulas. The major ambiguities, as noted in Section 2, concern the coefficient K
in (6), for which BUDYKO (1956) cites a value 2"4 X 10-6 g/cma (50 ~o bigger than
Table 2. Mean February and August climatological data for Lats. 20--40°N along Long. 6 0 ° W , including derived quantities
pertaining to sea-surface temperature (see text). Units of.4 and B are cal c m - 2 s e c - 1, and of C, cal c m - 2 s e c - 1 d e g - 1.

Qo n u, Ta q,~ a c A B C T* TWL
(cal c m -2 see-1) (kt) (*C) (g/kg) ( × 10a) ( x 10a) ( × 10a) ('C) ('C)

20°N F 6.83 X 10 -a 0.45 12 24.5 15.8 ~v

A 8.28 x 10 -a 0"45 13 27.9 19.4 0.37 0"59 ÷ 7.07 2.51 0-877 2.3 27.8
>
25°N F 6"39 X 10 -a 0-50 I1 22.4 13.9
A 8-32 X 10 -a 0.40 9 27.8 19.1 0.35 0.61 ~ 5"54 3'58 0.706 3.1 26-7
~o
300N F 5"89 x 10 -a 0"55 14 19.6 11"7
A 8.28 X 10 -a 0"45 8 27.4 18"9 0"36 0"63 -i 3"26 5.16 0"776 3'9 22.3

35"N F 5"32 X 10 -~ 0"65 19 15.7 9.1

A 8"17 x 10 -a 0"50 12 26.2 18.0 0"38 0"65 -- 0"58 7.10 1.088 4'3 17-2

40°N F 4-65 X 10 -3 0.70 22 9-3 6"1

A 7.95 x 10 -a 0"50 12 22"9 15.0 0"38 0.68 -- 6"08 9"85 1.190 5.2 ll.7
 Insensitivity o f subtropical m o d e water characteristics to meteorological fluctuations 13

that used here), and the numerical terms in (3), which BRUNT(1944) gives alternatively
as;
Q ' B = stT04(0 " 5 6 - - 0 " 0 S e t ) •

We have therefore recalculated the February and August values of F(t) and G(t)
at 35°N, 60°W for these different expressions for Qs and Qs. The constants A, B,
C were then A = --2.17 x I0 -a, B = 9.18 x 10-a, and C = 1.460 x 10-a; from
(13), the temperature amplitude comes out to be 4.6°C, and the winter minimum
temperature, 15.9°C, or 1.3°C lower than calculated previously (Table 2). About
0.2°C derives from change in the formula for QB, the remaining 1.1 ° from change in
Qs. Thus uncertainty in representation of the surface heat flux probably makes the
detailed calculation of 18-I°C for the winter minimum temperature questionable to
within 1°, although the good agreement with observation obtained from (12), not
only for the mean temperature but also for the annual range of temperature, suggests
both that the model is valid to first order and that the heat fluxes were fairly well
represented.
4. NORTH PACIFIC
We next apply the model to the temperature of subtropical mode water in the
North Pacific. The formation region has been less clearly identified here than in the
North Atlantic but from maps prepared by MASUZAWA0969, Fig. 6) and REID
(1969), it appears to lie between Longs. 140°E and 160°E, and between Lats. 30°N
and 35°N. Monthly climatological data for 32.5°N, 150°E are listed in Table 3.
They were obtained from the same sources, and in the same way, as those for the
North Atlantic, except that the air and sea-surface temperatures are averages of the
monthly means for the two five-degree squares enclosing this point (i.e. they are
average values for the rectangle 30-35°N, 145-155°E), and the Q0's are averages of
values at Lats. 30°N and 35°N.
The calculated monthly values of F(t) and G(t) in (8) showed the same phase
as those for the North Atlantic, and the least-squares fit for amplitudes gave the
following numerical expression for (9):
dU
-- --1.38 x l0 -a -- 7.06 x 10-a cos cot - (0.968 + 0.272cos o~t) x 10-aT, 04)
dt
where, again, ~ot = 0 or an integral multiple of 2~ at the end of January.

Table 3. Mean monthly climatological data for the position 32.5°N, 150°E.
Oo (cal c m - 2 s e c -1) n u.(kt) T~('C) q~(g/kg) T,o('C)

J 4"41 × 10 - a 0"65 17 15.1 8"7 17"4

F 5.60 X 10 - a 0"65 17 13"8 7.9 16"5
M 6.90 × 10 - a 0.65 14 14-4 8"6 16"2
A 8"05 X 10 - a 0-65 14 16"1 9.7 17.2
M 8"84 × 10 - a 0.65 14 17"7 10.8 18"4
J 9"07 × 10 - a 0.60 10 20"1 12"6 21'0
J 8.94 × 10 - a 0.60 10 23"6 15.8 24.2
A 8"23 × 10- a 0-60 10 25.1 17"4 26.0
S 7"08 × 10 - a 0.60 14 24.7 16"4 25"8
O 5"85 × 10- a 0.60 14 22-8 14.5 24.1
N 4"65 × 10 "-a 0-60 14 20-2 12.2 21"9
D 4.04 × 10 - a 0.65 17 17"3 10"1 19"3
14 BaucE A. WARREN

The main thermocline is sharper and shallower in the subtropical North Pacific
than in the North Atlantic• The reciprocal of the thermocline temperature gradient
/~ is about 40 m/deg just south of the Kuroshio, and the 15° isotherm is at about
400 m depth (MASUZAWA, 1969, Fig. 1); To accordingly was taken to be 3 ° (25°C).
With ~, = 15 m/deg again, successive winter minimum temperatures in the numerical
integration of (14) differed by < 0.01°C after ten years. At this point the winter
minimum was 17.3°C, the summer maximum 25.1°C, and the annual average tempera-
ture 21.0°C. The average agrees well with the observed value of 20.7°C (Table 3),
but the amplitude of the annual variation is 1o less than observed (Table 3). Part of
the discrepancy seems due to error in the seasonal thermocline: MASUZAWA'S(1969)
Fig. 1 suggests ~ = 10 m/deg rather than 15 m/deg. It is quite unclear why the
seasonal thermocline should have a different character in the North Pacific from that
in the North Atlantic, but the numerical integration was re-run anyway for the smaller
value of 7. Convergence was achieved after fifteen years, with a winter minimum
temperature of 16.8°C, summer maximum of 25.9°C, and annual average again of
21.0°C. The amplitude agreement is much better, though not quite so good as in the
North Atlantic calculations.
Curves like those in Fig. 3 are plotted for the North Pacific in Fig. 4. The
calculated temperature is based on 7 = 10 m/deg. Although the agreement is not
so good in either amplitude or phase as for the North Atlantic, probably it is still
good enough to take the local model seriously here too. With regard to the model,

30oc - ''',.

20-

26=

24 i

22 =

20-
.

i6 =

~4

3" F M A M ,,1" J" S N D 3

Fig. 4. Calculated asymptotic annual surface temperature cycle at 32.5"N, 150"E (solid line);
observed surface temperature variation at 32.5"N, I50"E (dashed line); surface temperature variation
imposed by meteorological forcing at 32.5"N, 150"E if the ocean had zero heat capacity (dotted line).
 Insensitivity of subtropical mode water characteristics to meteorological fluctuations 15

several circumstances combine to produce lower temperatures in the Pacific than in

the Atlantic. Differences in the mean temperature are mainly determined by differences
in the constant A in (9), which is given by annual-mean values. Although the clear-
sky short-wave radiation over the Pacific site is greater than that over the Atlantic,
because of the lower latitude, the cloudiness is sufficiently greater actually to reduce
the annual-average short-wave radiation absorbed there by 0.17 x 10-3 cal cm -2
sec- 1; but this implies a temperature drop of only about 0.2°C. More important is the
fact that the air over the formation region in the Pacific is both drier and cooler than
in the Atlantic (Tables 1 and 3). By itself, the specific humidity difference would
reduce the surface temperature by about 0.6°C, and the air temperature difference
would reduce it by 0.4°C. The average wind speed is also less for the Pacific than for
the Atlantic, however: this reduces the evaporative and sensible heat fluxes, and
hence reduces the effects of lower q, and T, on sea surface temperature. The net
long-wave radiation also depends on cloudiness and humidity, but here the effects
almost exactly cancel each other.

5. MODE WATER SALINITY

We are unable to undertake so detailed a discussion of the salinity of subtropical

mode water. The salt budget must be radically different from the heat budget, how-
ever, and is therefore worth some brief comment. Differences between the rates of
evaporation (E) and precipitation (P) are equivalent to a downward salt flux across
the sea surface, So(E -- P), where So is the surface salinity. Although E -- P > 0
in the formation regions for mode water, this is the only salt flux at the sea surface,
and a balance must be sought elsewhere in the water column extending into the main
thermocline for its salinity to remain constant in time (on annual average). We
continue to claim that horizontal gradients are too small for horizontal fluxes to be
of any consequence. Furthermore, within the main thermocline itself here, we suppose
that the essential salt balance is between vertical advection and diffusion; if so,
then in the bulk of the thermocline, where salinity varies linearly with depth (i.e.
02S/Oz 2 -- 0), there can be no vertical advection across the bottom of the column,
and the sea-surface salt flux must be balanced (essentially) by the downward diffusive
flux pKOS/Oz in the thermocline, where K is a vertical eddy diffusivity for salt.
Since eddy diffusivities are poorly defined, and mid-ocean precipitation data
are not readily available on a seasonal basis, it would be pointless to attempt calcula-
tions of time-variations in salinity. We can at least consider annual-mean conditions,
however, and verify that the value of ~crequired in the above balance is a likely one.
For a mean surface temperature of 21.8°C at Lat. 35°N, Long. 60°W, q, ---- 16.1 g/kg;
from the data in Table 1, mean values ofqa and u, are 12.9 g/kg and 15¼ kt, and E
may be calculated from (6) as E ~ Qg/L = 4.02 x 10-° gcm -2 sec -1. For a value
of P, we refer to the map of mean annual precipitation in the Soviet Marine Atlas
(ISAKOV, SHULEIglN and DEM~, 1953): 1000mm/yr, equivalent to 3.17 X 10-e
g c m -2 sec -1. For So we take the observed salinity of the homogeneous water,
36"5~oo,while the vertical salinity gradient in the main thermocline is about 3 x 10-5~oo/
cm (Fig. 1). The required value e l k is then 1.0 cm~/sec, which seems entirely plausible
in comparison with other estimates of vertical diffusivities.
The parameters for the formation region in the North Pacific are similar to those
16 BRUCE A. WARREN

for the North Atlantic, and yield a similar result. With so much question about
precipitation and diffusivity values, there is little basis at this time for speculating as
to why mode water there has a lower salinity than mode water in the North Atlantic.

6. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF M O D E W A T E R

The areal distribution of subtropical mode water is not properly our subject
here, since we are mainly concerned with variability in its temperature and salinity.
Nevertheless, some comment seems warranted because the extension of mode water
southward from its formation region between the main thermocline and the secondary
near-surface thermocline (Fig. 1 ; MASUZAWA,1969, Fig. 1) has been taken to indicate
a very different process for forming mode water from the model advanced here.
It has been suggested (see Section 1) that this long tongue represents the lower limb
of a large-scale convection cell operating in late winter, in which intense cooling just
south of the Gulf Stream draws warm surface water northward from low latitudes,
to sink, and then spread southward between the main thermocline and the surface
water. This does not seem a necessary interpretation of Fig. l, and, in fact, inde-
pendent evidence for the large-scale northward surface flow in the Sargasso Sea does
not exist. Indeed, current charts and dynamic topographies suggest a prevailing
southward component of motion in the upper kilometer (say) of the Sargasso Sea,
presumably deriving from the Gulf Stream to the north.
It appears quite possible to interpret the temperature profile (Fig. 1) in terms of a
balance between vertical diffusion and general southward advection (with zonal
components) in the upper few hundred meters, with the upper boundary condition
given as the surface heat flux prescribed as the right-hand side of(8). The mean annual
surface heat input increases progressively to the south (Table 2) and as an initially
isothermal column of water standing above the main thermocline moves southward,
its surface temperature will rise and heat will be diffused downward, leading to
development of a secondary thermocline. In such a scheme, the depth of an isotherm
z would be given very roughly by (Ky/v)J, where K is the vertical diffusion coefficient, v
the southward velocity component, and y the distance south of the latitude where the
isotherm intersects the sea surface. For K = 1 cm2/sec and v = 1 cm/sec, say, and
y = 1000 km, then z = 100 m, which is approximately the depth of the secondary
thermocline illustrated in Fig. 1. We cannot pursue this interpretation any further:
it is mentioned here only to show that the southward-extending tongue of subtropical
mode water does not necessarily argue against the one-dimensional model for mode
water formation.

7. METEOROLOGICAL FLUCTUATIONS

We have described a simple scheme for the existence of subtropical mode water,
which appears to be roughly consistent with the general distribution of properties and
currents in the subtropical gyres of the North Atlantic and Pacific. We have also
developed numerical formulae which permit calculations of the characteristics of
mode water. The results for monthly-mean conditions in both oceans agree well
enough with observation to encourage the belief that these formulae will also give
realistic estimates for the effects of fluctuations in weather on the water-mass charac-
 Insensitivityof subtropical mode water characteristicsto meteorologicalfluctuations 17

teristics. Speeitically, how much would a severe winter change the temperature and
salinity ?
The first problem here, of course, is to specify just what a 'severe' winter is.
If one considers the December-February average air temperatures at the ground for
all years on record in southeastern New England, orders them by average temperature,
and cuts the sequence into three groups each containing the same number of years,
one finds that the division between the 'cold' third and the median third lies at a
temperature which is only about 0.5°C lower than the average air temperature for
the period for all years (J. Chase, personal communication). Perhaps, then, one
might consider as 'severe' a winter at 35°N, 60°W where the average air temperature
for the six-month period November-April was 1.0°C below normal. Very little in-
formation is readily available concerning humidity variations, but for these rough
purposes probably one can regard the relative humidity as unchanging from year to
year, and estimate variations in specific humidityfrom the variations in air temperature
(i.e. with the anomaly AT,---- --1 ° we associate an anomaly Aq, of --0"5 g/kg).
For the wind speed, we shall arbitrarily consider an increase of 5 kt in the averages
as 'severe.' We may then use (9) to calculate the effects of these anomalies, persisting
for six months, November-April, on the winter surface temperature minimum.
We consider first, and in conjunction, the anomalies in air temperature and specific
humidity. These, being uniform in time, affect mainly the constant A in (9), which
reflects annual averages; they affect B very little, and C and D not at all. For our
purposes it will be sufficient only to estimate 'corrections' to A in (12). The annual
average wind speed ~,----15¼ kt----785 cm/sec at 35°N, 60°W (Table 1). Then
from (5), an anomaly AT, leads to a contribution to A of 4.16 × 10-Tfi,AT, =
--0.33 × 10 -3 calcm 2 secX; and from (6), an anomaly Aq, gives a contribution
KLa, Aq, = --0-37 × 10-8 cal cm -2 sec-L
Thus we replace A = --0.66 x 10-3 in (12) by A ---- --1.36 × 10-3, andre-run
the numerical integration, starting at the beginning of November in the asymptotic
temperature cycle (Fig. 3), and continuing until the temperature reaches its new
winter minimum. With the more intense cooling the seasonal thermocline is erased
3.8 months after starting (late February); the subtropical mode water is then exposed
to the atmosphere for 1.4 months (into early April), after which seasonal warming
sets in. The cooling of the mode water lowers its temperature by only 0"1°C.
For a 'mild' winter, the integration was run again with temperature and humidity
anomalies of opposite sign (but same magnitude). In this case, of course, the seasonal
thermocline was never entirely erased, and the mode water was never exposed to the
atmosphere. The surface temperature fell to 18.4°C after 4.8 months (late March),
after which it began rising.
It is less easy to tinker with (12) to 'correct' it for increases in u,, because both
Qs and Q~ vary directly with u,, and hence A, B, C, D, in (9) all depend on u,. Since,
to good accuracy, C and D vary directly with u,, and since Au,[ft, ~ 0.3, we adjust
C and D by increasing their values 30 % in (12). To adjust A and B we need to extract
the mean values and amplitudes of the T-independent parts of Qs and Qs. These
assume their maximum and minimum values in February and August, from which
values means and amplitudes may be approximated as: for Q~, mean of 2.80 × 10-3,
amplitude of 3"78 × 10-8 cal cm-2 sec-x; for Qs, mean of 0.74 × 10 -3, amplitude
of 1.82 × 10-3 cal era-2 see -x. To modify A and B for the 30y. increase in wind
 1~ BRUCEA. WARREN

speed, we subtract 30 ~ of these means and amplitudes from the values given for
A and B in (12). The adjusted version of (12) is then:
dU
-- 1.72 x 10-3 -- 8.83 x 10-a cos cot -- (1.392 -I- 0-352 cos oJt) x 10-aT. (15)
dt
This expression was integrated numerically under the same conditions as the
integration for the anomalies in air temperature and specific humidity. The seasonal
thermocline was erased after 3.4 months (mid-February); during the next 1.7 months
(to early April), the temperature of the mode water decreased to 17.9°C, after which
seasonal warming began.
For a 30 ~o decrease in wind speed (a 'mild' winter), the seasonal thermocline
was again not entirely removed: the surface temperature decreased to 19.0°C after
5"0 months, and then rose again. The temperature of the mode water was unaffected
of course.
Thus the combined effect of the severe-winter anomalies is to reduce the mode-
water temperature by only 0.3°C, which lies within the observed variation cited by
WORTHINGTON (1959) of 4-0"3°C. In mild winters we expect no change in mode-
water temperature, except as resulting from vertical diffusion and advection, which
we have neglected in this model.
Increased wind speed and reduced specific humidity mean an enhanced evapora-
tion rate, which raises the salinity of the mode water. We make an overestimate of
the salinity change by considering only the effects of wind speed and humidity
anomalies on evaporation rate, and ignore the decrease in saturation specific humidity
at the sea surface, brought about by the decline in surface temperature. The annual-
mean difference qs(T) -- q,~ is about 3.2 g/kg. Decreasing q~ by 0.5 g/kg raises this
difference, and thereby the annual-mean evaporation rate, by 16~. The wind speed
anomaly introduces another increase to E, of 30 ~o, for a total increase in evaporation
rate of 51 ~o. Since in Section 5 we calculated the mean annual value of E to be
4.02x 10-rgcm-2sec -1, the increase A E = 2 . 0 5 X 10-rgcm-2sec -1. If the
precipitation rate stays constant, the increased salt flux down from the sea surface
is SoAE. At this rate, the additional mass of salt accumulated in the water column
during the six-month severe winter is 1-18 g/cm2; and if this amount of salt is mixed
uniformly through the upper 450 m while the mode water is exposed to the atmosphere
and is turning over under the enhanced cooling, then the salinity of the mode water
increases by < 0"03~oo,an increment which is well within the observed salinity varia-
ion of -I-0.10%o (WoRTrnNGTON, 1959).
During mild winters the sea-surface salt flux will be reduced, but only water
within the seasonal thermocline will be affected, since the convective overturn cannot
penetrate to the homogeneous layer.
Meteorological variability over the western North Pacific is probably comparable
to that over the North Atlantic, leading to similar effects on mode-water character-
istics there.
Thus we come finally to the conclusion that, within the terms of our model,
real fluctuations in weather are just not big enough to produce very noticeable varia-
tions in mode-water characteristics; and indeed, that the variations which we might
reasonably expect are actually within the small ranges observed. As we have seen,
even with prolonged intervals of increased cooling, most of this time must be consumed
 Insensitivity of subtropical mode water characteristics to meteorologicalfluctuations 19

in removing the seasonal thermodine. The homogeneous layer is subjected to the

greater cooling for only one-two months, and the layer itself is so thick, with such
great total heat capacity, that 'severe' winters are not severe enough to modify its
temperature in the short time available, no matter how unpleasant the weather may
feel on occasion to the sea-going oceanographer. Although the uniformity of mode
water characteristics over many years does seem striking in the context of near-
surface variability in hydrographic station data, it does not turn out to be so very re-
markable when one considers quantitatively how these characteristics are determined.
Acknowledgements--I am very grateful to R. THOMPSONfor performing the numerical integrations
discussed here, and to P. SAtn~ERSfor discovering a serious misunderstanding of some data used
in an earlier set of calculations. This work was supported by the U.S. Officeof Naval Research under
Contract CO241.
REFERENCES

BERLIAND M. E. and T. G. BERLIAND(1952) Opredelenie effectivnogo izluchenia zemli s

uchetom vliania oblachnosti. Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR, Ser. Geofiz., 1, 64-78.
BERLL~,ND T. G. (1960) Metodika klimatologicheskikh raschetov radiatsii. Met. Gidrol.,
6, 9-16.
BoLz H. M. and G. FALCKENnERG(1949) Neubestimmung der Konstanten der Angstr6mschen
Strahlungsformel. Z. Met., 3, 4, 97-100.
BRUNT D. (1944) Physical and Dynamical Meteorology, 2nd Ed., Cambridge Univ. Press,
422 pp.
BUDYKO M. I. (1956) Teplovoi Balans Zemnoi Poverkhnosti. Gidrometeorologicheskoe
Izdatel'stvo, 255 pp. (The Heat Balance of the Earth's Surface, translated by Nina A.
Stepanova, distributed by U.S. Weather Bureau, 1958).
ISAKOV I. S., V. V. SHULEIKINand L. A. DEMr~ (1953) Morskoi Atlas, Tom II: Fiziko-
Geograficheskii. Ministerstvo Oboroni S.S.S.R., Izdanie Glavnogo Shtaba Voenno-
Morskikh Sil.
JACGBS W. C. (1942) On the energy exchange between sea and atmosphere. J. mar. Res.,
5, 1, 37-66.
LIST R. J. (1951) Smithsonian Meteorological Tables, 6th Ed. Smithsonian misc. Collns,
114 (Publ. 4014), 527 pp.
MALKUSJOA~,ZBS. (1962) Large-scale interactions. In: The Sea, M. N. HILL,editor, 1, Chap. 4,
88-294. Interscience.
MASUZAWAJ. (1969) Subtropical Mode Water. Deep-Sea Res., 16, 5, 463-472.
MCDONALD W. F. (1938) Atlas of Climatic Charts of the Ocean. Weather Bureau No. 1247,
Govt. Printing Office, 71 pp.
RvzD J. L. (1969) Sea-surface temperature, salinity and density of the Pacific Ocean in
summer and winter. Deep-Sea Res. SuppL 16, 215-224.
RmnL H., T. C. YEH, J. S. MALKUSand N. E. LASEUR(1951) The north-east trade of the
Pacific Ocean. Q. Jl. R. met. Soc., 77, 598-626.
SAtmI)ESS P. M. (1968) Radiance of sea and sky in the infra-red window 800-1200 cm - t
J. opt. Soc. Am., 58, 5, 645-652.
SCI-mOEDER ELLZAnE~-I,H. STO~mL, D. MENZEL and W. SUTCLn~FE,Jr. (1959) Climatic
stability of eighteen degree water at Bermuda. J. geophys. Res., 64, 3, 363-366.
SVERDRUP H. U. (1951) Evaporation from the oceans. In: Compendium of Meteorology,
T. F. MALONe,editor, pp. 1071-1081. American Meteorological Society.
WOmam~OTON L. V. (1959) The 18° water in the Sargasso Sea. Deep-Sea Res., 5, 4, 297-305.
WUST G. (1936) Oberfliichensalzgehalt, Verdtmstung und Niederschlag auf dem Weltmeere.
Liinderkundliche Forschung, Festschrift Norbert Krebs, 347-359.