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  • Fecha Casos Reales Pronóstico (5) Pronóstico (3) Días Desde El Caso Cero

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    redlion4444
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    The document shows data on COVID-19 cases in Peru from March 6th to April 12th. It includes the actual reported cases and predictions made using exponential, polynomial and polynomial models. The polynomial model with 5 terms had the highest R-squared value of 0.995, indicating it best fit the data. The model is expressed as a 5th order polynomial equation.

    Original Description:

    COVID-19 Simple Forecast 05.04.20 Lima

    Original Title

    COVID-19 Simple Forecast 05.04.20

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    The document shows data on COVID-19 cases in Peru from March 6th to April 12th. It includes the actual reported cases and predictions made using exponential, polynomial and polynomial models. The polynomial model with 5 terms had the highest R-squared value of 0.995, indicating it best fit the data. The model is expressed as a 5th order polynomial equation.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    7 views3 pages

    Fecha Casos Reales Pronóstico (5) Pronóstico (3) Días Desde El Caso Cero

    Uploaded by

    redlion4444
    The document shows data on COVID-19 cases in Peru from March 6th to April 12th. It includes the actual reported cases and predictions made using exponential, polynomial and polynomial models. The polynomial model with 5 terms had the highest R-squared value of 0.995, indicating it best fit the data. The model is expressed as a 5th order polynomial equation.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 3

    Días desde

    el caso Fecha Casos Reales Pronóstico (5) Pronóstico (3)


    Pron
    cero
    1 06/03/20 1
    2500
    2 07/03/20 8
    3 08/03/20 9
    f(x) = 0.0003710
    2000
    4 09/03/20 12
    R² = 0.99580320
    5 10/03/20 13
    6 11/03/20 21 1500
    7 12/03/20 29
    8 13/03/20 39 1000
    9 14/03/20 58
    10 15/03/20 87 500
    11 16/03/20 107
    12 17/03/20 136 0 1 8 9
    13 18/03/20 194 1 2 3 4
    14 19/03/20 234
    15 20/03/20 263
    16 21/03/20 318
    17 22/03/20 363
    18 23/03/20 395
    19 24/03/20 416
    20 25/03/20 480
    21 26/03/20 580
    22 27/03/20 635
    23 28/03/20 671
    24 29/03/20 852
    25 30/03/20 950
    26 31/03/20 1065 1 8 9 12 1
    27 01/04/20 1323 0 0 0 0
    /2 /2 /2 /2 /2
    28 02/04/20 1414 6
    /0
    3
    7
    /0
    3
    8
    /0
    3
    9
    /0
    3
    0
    /0
    3
    0 0 0 0 1
    29 03/04/20 1595
    30 04/04/20 1746
    31 05/04/20 2281
    32 06/04/20 3483 2331
    33 07/04/20 4068 2598
    34 08/04/20 4748 2886
    35 09/04/20 5537 3197
    36 10/04/20 6447 3530
    37 11/04/20 7494 3887
    38 12/04/20 8695 4269

    ExponencialPolinomial (3) Polinomial (5)


    1 8 9 12 1
    R2 0.9199 0.9911 0.9891
    0 0 0 0
    /2 /2 /2 /2 /
    3 3 3 3 3
    /0 /0 /0 /0 /0
    6 7 8 9 0
    0 0 0 0 1
    Pronóstico Polinomial Contagios COVID-19 - Perú
    2500

    f(x) = 0.000371042751 x⁵ − 0.020757215042 x⁴ + 0.422531411037 x³ − 2.051189594011 x² + 3.884580516688 x


    2000
    R² = 0.995803201583502

    1500

    1000 106
    950
    852
    671
    580 635
    500
    395 416 480
    318 363
    136 194 234 263
    107
    0 1 8 9 12 13 21 29 39 58 87
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 2

    Pronóstico Polinomial Contagios COVID-19 - Perú

    y = 0.0004x5 - 0.0208x4 + 0.4225x3 - 2.0512x2 + 3.8846x + 2.8873


    R² = 0.9958

    348

    2281
    1595 1746
    1323 1414
    1065
    852 950
    580 635 671
    318 363 395 416 480
    1 8 9 12 13 21 29 39 58 87 107 136 194 234 263

    0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2
    3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
    /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0
    6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
    0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

    Pronóstico Polinomial Contagios COVID-19 - Perú

    y = 0.1423x3 - 3.4537x2 + 40.489x - 90.746


    R² = 0.9911 2
    2331
    2281
    1746
    1595
    1414
    1323
    1065
    852950
    580635671
    234263318363395416480
    194
    1 8 9 12 13 21 29 39 58 87 107136
    0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2
    3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
    /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0
    6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
    0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    2281
    94011 x² + 3.884580516688 x + 2.887253643642
    1746
    1595
    1414
    1323
    1065
    950
    852
    671
    580 635
    }
    6 480

    20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

    ID-19 - Perú

    8695

    7494

    6447
    5537
    4748
    4068
    3483

    2281
    1595 1746
    1323 1414
    1065
    52 950

    0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2
    3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
    /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0
    0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
    3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1

    ID-19 - Perú
    4269
    3887
    3530
    3197
    2886
    2598
    2331
    2281
    1746
    1595
    1414
    1323
    1065
    52950

    0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2
    3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
    /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0
    0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
    3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1

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