Year Quarter Black Plastic Clear Plastic

I 2,250 3,200
II 1,737 7,658
1
III 2,412 4,420
IV 7,269 2,384
I 3,514 3,654
II 2,143 8,680
2
III 3,459 5,695
IV 7,056 1,953
I 4,120 4,472
II 2,766 13,673
3
III 2,556 6,640
IV 8,253 2,737
I 5,491 3,486
II 4,382 13,186
4
III 4,315 5,448
IV 12,035 3,485
I 5,648 7,728
II 3,696 16,591
5
III 4,843 8,236
IV 13,097 3,316
 4 period Moving Average (Black Plastic)
Week Demand Level Forecast Error Absolute error Squared Error
MADt
t Dt Lt Ft Et At MSEt
1 2,250.00
2 1,737.00
3 2,412.00
4 7,269.00 3,417.00
5 3,514.00 3,733.00 3,417.00 -316.00 316.00 99,856.00 316.00
6 2,143.00 3,834.50 3,733.00 -101.50 101.50 55,079.13 208.75
7 3,459.00 4,096.25 3,834.50 -261.75 261.75 59,557.10 226.42
8 7,056.00 4,043.00 4,096.25 53.25 53.25 45,376.72 183.13
9 4,120.00 4,194.50 4,043.00 -151.50 151.50 40,891.83 176.80
10 2,766.00 4,350.25 4,194.50 -155.75 155.75 38,119.53 173.29
11 2,556.00 4,124.50 4,350.25 225.75 225.75 39,954.32 180.79
12 8,253.00 4,423.75 4,124.50 -299.25 299.25 46,153.85 195.59
13 5,491.00 4,766.50 4,423.75 -342.75 342.75 54,078.71 211.94
14 4,382.00 5,170.50 4,766.50 -404.00 404.00 64,992.44 231.15
15 4,315.00 5,610.25 5,170.50 -439.75 439.75 76,664.04 250.11
16 12,035.00 6,555.75 5,610.25 -945.50 945.50 144,772.89 308.06
17 5,648.00 6,595.00 6,555.75 -39.25 39.25 133,755.02 287.38
18 3,696.00 6,423.50 6,595.00 171.50 171.50 126,301.96 279.11
19 4,843.00 6,555.50 6,423.50 -132.00 132.00 119,043.43 269.30
20 13,097.00 6,821.00 6,555.50 -265.50 265.50 116,008.86 269.06
Average 235.43

4 period Moving Average (Black Plastic) year 7

Week Demand Level Forecast Error Absolute error Squared Error
MADt
t Dt Lt Ft Et At MSEt
1 2,250.00
2 1,737.00
3 2,412.00
4 7,269.00 3,417.00
5 3,514.00 3,733.00 3,417.00 -316.00 316.00 99,856.00 316.00
6 2,143.00 3,834.50 3,733.00 -101.50 101.50 55,079.13 208.75
7 3,459.00 4,096.25 3,834.50 -261.75 261.75 59,557.10 226.42
8 7,056.00 4,043.00 4,096.25 53.25 53.25 45,376.72 183.13
9 4,120.00 4,194.50 4,043.00 -151.50 151.50 40,891.83 176.80
10 2,766.00 4,350.25 4,194.50 -155.75 155.75 38,119.53 173.29
11 2,556.00 4,124.50 4,350.25 225.75 225.75 39,954.32 180.79
12 8,253.00 4,423.75 4,124.50 -299.25 299.25 46,153.85 195.59
13 5,491.00 4,766.50 4,423.75 -342.75 342.75 54,078.71 211.94
14 4,382.00 5,170.50 4,766.50 -404.00 404.00 64,992.44 231.15
15 4,315.00 5,610.25 5,170.50 -439.75 439.75 76,664.04 250.11
16 12,035.00 6,555.75 5,610.25 -945.50 945.50 144,772.89 308.06
17 5,648.00 6,595.00 6,555.75 -39.25 39.25 133,755.02 287.38
18 3,696.00 6,423.50 6,595.00 171.50 171.50 126,301.96 279.11
19 4,843.00 6,555.50 6,423.50 -132.00 132.00 119,043.43 269.30
20 13,097.00 6,821.00 6,555.50 -265.50 265.50 116,008.86 269.06
21 6,821.00 7,114.25 6,821.00 -293.25 293.25 114,243.37 270.49
22 6,821.00 7,895.50 7,114.25 -781.25 781.25 141,804.94 298.86
23 6,821.00 8,390.00 7,895.50 -494.50 494.50 147,211.53 309.16
24 6,821.00 6,821.00 8,390.00 1,569.00 1,569.00 262,939.01 372.15
 4 period
Week Demand Level Forecast
%Error MAPEt TSt
t Dt Lt Ft
1 3,200.00
2 7,658.00
3 4,420.00
4 2,384.00 4,415.50
8.99 8.99 -1.00 5 3,654.00 4,529.00 4,415.50
4.74 6.86 -2.00 6 8,680.00 4,784.50 4,529.00
7.57 7.10 -3.00 7 5,695.00 5,103.25 4,784.50
0.75 5.51 -3.42 8 1,953.00 4,995.50 5,103.25
3.68 5.15 -4.40 9 4,472.00 5,200.00 4,995.50
5.63 5.23 -5.39 10 13,673.00 6,448.25 5,200.00
8.83 5.74 -3.91 11 6,640.00 6,684.50 6,448.25
3.63 5.48 -5.15 12 2,737.00 6,880.50 6,684.50
6.24 5.56 -6.37 13 3,486.00 6,634.00 6,880.50
9.22 5.93 -7.59 14 13,186.00 6,512.25 6,634.00
10.19 6.32 -8.77 15 5,448.00 6,214.25 6,512.25
7.86 6.44 -10.19 16 3,485.00 6,401.25 6,214.25
0.69 6.00 -11.06 17 7,728.00 7,461.75 6,401.25
4.64 5.90 -10.77 18 16,591.00 8,313.00 7,461.75
2.73 5.69 -11.65 19 8,236.00 9,010.00 8,313.00
2.03 5.46 -12.65 20 3,316.00 8,967.75 9,010.00
6.09 Average

4 period M
7 Week Demand Level Forecast
t Dt Lt Ft
%Error MAPEt TSt
1 3,200.00
2 7,658.00
3 4,420.00
4 2,384.00 4,415.50
5 3,654.00 4,529.00 4,415.50
8.99 8.99 -1.00 6 8,680.00 4,784.50 4,529.00
4.74 6.86 -2.00 7 5,695.00 5,103.25 4,784.50
7.57 7.10 -3.00 8 1,953.00 4,995.50 5,103.25
0.75 5.51 -3.42 9 4,472.00 5,200.00 4,995.50
3.68 5.15 -4.40 10 13,673.00 6,448.25 5,200.00
5.63 5.23 -5.39 11 6,640.00 6,684.50 6,448.25
8.83 5.74 -3.91 12 2,737.00 6,880.50 6,684.50
3.63 5.48 -5.15 13 3,486.00 6,634.00 6,880.50
6.24 5.56 -6.37 14 13,186.00 6,512.25 6,634.00
9.22 5.93 -7.59 15 5,448.00 6,214.25 6,512.25
10.19 6.32 -8.77 16 3,485.00 6,401.25 6,214.25
7.86 6.44 -10.19 17 7,728.00 7,461.75 6,401.25
0.69 6.00 -11.06 18 16,591.00 8,313.00 7,461.75
4.64 5.90 -10.77 19 8,236.00 9,010.00 8,313.00
2.73 5.69 -11.65 20 3,316.00 8,967.75 9,010.00
2.03 5.46 -12.65 21 8,967.75 9,277.69 8,967.75
4.30 5.39 -13.67 22 8,967.75 7,371.88 9,277.69
11.45 5.73 -14.99 23 8,967.75 7,554.81 7,371.88
7.25 5.81 -16.09 24 8,967.75 8,967.75 7,554.81
23.00 6.67 -9.15
 4 period Moving Average (Clear Plastic)
Error Absolute error Squared Error
MADt %Error MAPEt TSt
Et At MSEt

-113.50 113.50 12,882.25 113.50 3.11 3.11 -1.00

-255.50 255.50 39,081.25 184.50 2.94 3.02 -2.00
-318.75 318.75 59,921.35 229.25 5.60 3.88 -3.00
107.75 107.75 47,843.53 198.88 5.52 4.29 -2.92
-204.50 204.50 46,638.88 200.00 4.57 4.35 -3.92
-1,248.25 1,248.25 298,553.74 374.71 9.13 5.14 -5.42
-236.25 236.25 263,876.64 354.93 3.56 4.92 -6.39
-196.00 196.00 235,694.06 335.06 7.16 5.20 -7.36
246.50 246.50 216,257.19 325.22 7.07 5.41 -6.82
121.75 121.75 196,113.78 304.88 0.92 4.96 -6.88
298.00 298.00 186,358.35 304.25 5.47 5.00 -5.91
-187.00 187.00 173,742.57 294.48 5.37 5.03 -6.74
-1,060.50 1,060.50 246,890.08 353.40 13.72 5.70 -8.62
-851.25 851.25 281,014.12 388.96 5.13 5.66 -10.02
-697.00 697.00 294,667.11 409.50 8.46 5.85 -11.22
42.25 42.25 276,361.98 386.55 1.27 5.56 -11.78
297.38 4.82

4 period Moving Average (Clear Plastic) year 7

Error Absolute error Squared Error
MADt %Error MAPEt TSt
Et At MSEt

-113.50 113.50 12,882.25 113.50 3.11 3.11 -1.00

-255.50 255.50 39,081.25 184.50 2.94 3.02 -2.00
-318.75 318.75 59,921.35 229.25 5.60 3.88 -3.00
107.75 107.75 47,843.53 198.88 5.52 4.29 -2.92
-204.50 204.50 46,638.88 200.00 4.57 4.35 -3.92
-1,248.25 1,248.25 298,553.74 374.71 9.13 5.14 -5.42
-236.25 236.25 263,876.64 354.93 3.56 4.92 -6.39
 -196.00 196.00 235,694.06 335.06 7.16 5.20 -7.36
246.50 246.50 216,257.19 325.22 7.07 5.41 -6.82
121.75 121.75 196,113.78 304.88 0.92 4.96 -6.88
298.00 298.00 186,358.35 304.25 5.47 5.00 -5.91
-187.00 187.00 173,742.57 294.48 5.37 5.03 -6.74
-1,060.50 1,060.50 246,890.08 353.40 13.72 5.70 -8.62
-851.25 851.25 281,014.12 388.96 5.13 5.66 -10.02
-697.00 697.00 294,667.11 409.50 8.46 5.85 -11.22
42.25 42.25 276,361.98 386.55 1.27 5.56 -11.78
-309.94 309.94 265,756.06 382.04 3.46 5.44 -12.73
1,905.81 1,905.81 452,776.35 466.69 21.25 6.32 -6.33
-182.94 182.94 430,707.39 451.76 2.04 6.09 -6.95
-1,412.94 1,412.94 508,991.64 499.82 15.76 6.58 -9.11
 Simple Exponential Smoothing (Black Plastic)
Week Demand Level Forecast Error Absolute error Mean Squared Error
t Dt Lt Ft Et At MSEt
0.00 5052.10
1.00 2250.00 4648.50 5052.10 2802.10 2802.10 7851764.41
2.00 1737.00 4229.14 4648.50 2911.50 2911.50 8164300.76
3.00 2412.00 3967.41 4229.14 1817.14 1817.14 6543538.15
4.00 7269.00 4442.96 3967.41 -3301.59 3301.59 7632773.36
5.00 3514.00 4309.15 4442.96 928.96 928.96 6278810.26
6.00 2143.00 3997.15 4309.15 2166.15 2166.15 6014378.79
7.00 3459.00 3919.64 3997.15 538.15 538.15 5196554.44
8.00 7056.00 4371.38 3919.64 -3136.36 3136.36 5776579.30
9.00 4120.00 4335.18 4371.38 251.38 251.38 5141758.72
10.00 2766.00 4109.16 4335.18 1569.18 1569.18 4873814.25
11.00 2556.00 3885.45 4109.16 1553.16 1553.16 4650040.96
12.00 8253.00 4514.53 3885.45 -4367.55 4367.55 5852160.58
13.00 5491.00 4655.18 4514.53 -976.47 976.47 5475340.10
14.00 4382.00 4615.83 4655.18 273.18 273.18 5089574.71
15.00 4315.00 4572.50 4615.83 300.83 300.83 4756302.92
16.00 12035.00 5647.36 4572.50 -7462.50 7462.50 7939591.77
17.00 5648.00 5647.45 5647.36 -0.64 0.64 7472556.99
18.00 3696.00 5366.37 5647.45 1951.45 1951.45 7268979.07
19.00 4843.00 5290.99 5366.37 523.37 523.37 6900818.04
20.00 13097.00 6415.32 5290.99 -7806.01 7806.01 9602467.21
Average 5052.10 4647.03 4578.87 -473.23 2231.88 6424105.24

α= 0.1440345
Plastic) Simple E
Week Demand Level Forecast
MADt %Error MAPEt TSt
t Dt Lt Ft
0.00 6332.10
2802.10 124.54 124.54 1.00 1.00 3200.00 6332.10 6332.10
2856.80 167.62 146.08 2.00 2.00 7658.00 6332.10 6332.10
2510.25 75.34 122.50 3.00 3.00 4420.00 6332.10 6332.10
2708.08 45.42 103.23 1.56 4.00 2384.00 6332.10 6332.10
2352.26 26.44 87.87 2.19 5.00 3654.00 6332.10 6332.10
2321.24 101.08 90.07 3.16 6.00 8680.00 6332.10 6332.10
2066.51 15.56 79.43 3.80 7.00 5695.00 6332.10 6332.10
2200.24 44.45 75.05 2.15 8.00 1953.00 6332.10 6332.10
1983.70 6.10 67.39 2.51 9.00 4472.00 6332.10 6332.10
1942.25 56.73 66.33 3.37 10.00 13673.00 6332.10 6332.10
1906.88 60.77 65.82 4.25 11.00 6640.00 6332.10 6332.10
2111.94 52.92 64.75 1.77 12.00 2737.00 6332.10 6332.10
2024.59 17.78 61.13 1.36 13.00 3486.00 6332.10 6332.10
1899.49 6.23 57.21 1.59 14.00 13186.00 6332.10 6332.10
1792.91 6.97 53.86 1.86 15.00 5448.00 6332.10 6332.10
2147.26 62.01 54.37 -1.92 16.00 3485.00 6332.10 6332.10
2020.99 0.01 51.17 -2.05 17.00 7728.00 6332.10 6332.10
2017.13 52.80 51.26 -1.08 18.00 16591.00 6332.10 6332.10
1938.51 10.81 49.14 -0.86 19.00 8236.00 6332.10 6332.10
2231.88 59.60 49.66 -4.24 20.00 3316.00 6332.10 6332.10
2191.75 49.66 76.04 1.27 Average 6332.10 6332.10 6332.10

α= 0
 Simple Exponential Smoothing (Clear Plastic)
Error Absolute error Mean Squared Error
MADt %Error MAPEt TSt
Et At MSEt

3132.10 3132.10 9810050.41 3132.10 97.88 97.88 1.00

-1325.90 1325.90 5784030.61 2229.00 17.31 57.60 0.81
1912.10 1912.10 5074729.21 2123.37 43.26 52.82 1.75
3948.10 3948.10 7702920.31 2579.55 165.61 81.02 2.97
2678.10 2678.10 7596780.17 2599.26 73.29 79.47 3.98
-2347.90 2347.90 7249422.54 2557.37 27.05 70.73 3.13
637.10 637.10 6271775.95 2283.04 11.19 62.23 3.78
4379.10 4379.10 7884868.56 2545.05 224.22 82.48 5.11
1860.10 1860.10 7393213.39 2468.94 41.59 77.93 6.02
-7340.90 7340.90 12042773.33 2956.14 53.69 75.51 2.55
-307.90 307.90 10956594.16 2715.39 4.64 69.07 2.66
3595.10 3595.10 11120606.64 2788.70 131.35 74.26 3.88
2846.10 2846.10 10888274.23 2793.12 81.64 74.83 4.89
-6853.90 6853.90 13465965.01 3083.17 51.98 73.19 2.21
884.10 884.10 12620342.86 2936.57 16.23 69.40 2.62
2847.10 2847.10 12338195.09 2930.98 81.70 70.16 3.60
-1395.90 1395.90 11727038.72 2840.68 18.06 67.10 3.22
-10258.90 10258.90 16922482.63 3252.80 61.83 66.81 -0.34
-1903.90 1903.90 16222606.45 3181.81 23.12 64.51 -0.95
3016.10 3016.10 15866319.09 3173.52 90.96 65.83 0.00
0.00 3173.52 10446949.47 2758.53 65.83 71.64 2.64
 Holt's Model (Black Plastic)
Week Demand Level Trend Forecast Error
t Dt Lt Tt Ft Et
0 2592.7476 226.86
1 2250.00 2820 227 2820 570
2 1737.00 3046 227 3046 1309
3 2412.00 3273 227 3273 861
4 7269.00 3500 227 3500 -3769
5 3514.00 3727 227 3727 213
6 2143.00 3954 227 3954 1811
7 3459.00 4181 227 4181 722
8 7056.00 4408 227 4408 -2648
9 4120.00 4634 227 4634 514
10 2766.00 4861 227 4861 2095
11 2556.00 5088 227 5088 2532
12 8253.00 5315 227 5315 -2938
13 5491.00 5542 227 5542 51
14 4382.00 5769 227 5769 1387
15 4315.00 5996 227 5996 1681
16 12035.00 6222 227 6222 -5813
17 5648.00 6449 227 6449 801
18 3696.00 6676 227 6676 2980
19 4843.00 6903 227 6903 2060
20 13097.00 7130 227 7130 -5967
Average 5052.10 4974.73 226.86 4974.73 -77.37

α= 0
β= 0.0397449
L= 2592.75
T= 226.86

Holt's Model (Clear Plastic)

Week Demand Level Trend Forecast Error
t Dt Lt Tt Ft Et
0 3582.5965 265.13
1 3200.00 3848 265 3848 648
2 7658.00 4113 265 4113 -3545
3 4420.00 4378 265 4378 -42
4 2384.00 4643 265 4643 2259
5 3654.00 4908 265 4908 1254
6 8680.00 5173 265 5173 -3507
 7 5695.00 5439 265 5439 -256
8 1953.00 5704 265 5704 3751
9 4472.00 5969 265 5969 1497
10 13673.00 6234 265 6234 -7439
11 6640.00 6499 265 6499 -141
12 2737.00 6764 265 6764 4027
13 3486.00 7029 265 7029 3543
14 13186.00 7294 265 7294 -5892
15 5448.00 7560 265 7560 2112
16 3485.00 7825 265 7825 4340
17 7728.00 8090 265 8090 362
18 16591.00 8355 265 8355 -8236
19 8236.00 8620 265 8620 384
20 3316.00 8885 265 8885 5569
Average 6332.10 6366.48 265.13 6366.48 34.38

α= 0
β= 0
L= 3582.60
T= 265.13
Holt's Model (Black Plastic)
Absolute error Mean Squared Error
MADt %Error MAPEt TSt
At MSEt

570 324448 570 25 25 1.00

1309 1019566 940 75 50 2.00
861 926999 913 36 45 3.00
3769 4246267 1627 52 47 -0.63
213 3406089 1344 6 39 -0.61
1811 3384957 1422 85 46 0.70
722 2975807 1322 21 43 1.30
2648 3480588 1488 38 42 -0.63
514 3123262 1380 12 39 -0.30
2095 3249967 1451 76 43 1.16
2532 3537411 1550 99 48 2.72
2938 3961938 1665 36 47 0.76
51 3657372 1541 1 43 0.86
1387 3533490 1530 32 42 1.77
1681 3486215 1540 39 42 2.85
5813 5379942 1807 48 42 -0.79
801 5101244 1748 14 41 -0.35
2980 5311248 1816 81 43 1.30
2060 5255058 1829 43 43 2.42
5967 6772640 2036 46 43 -0.76
2036.13 3606725.36 1476.02 43.14 42.72 0.89

Holt's Model (Clear Plastic)

Absolute error Mean Squared Error
MADt %Error MAPEt TSt
At MSEt

648 419551 648 20 20 1.00

3545 6493787 2096 46 33 -1.38
42 4329779 1412 1 22 -2.08
2259 4523243 1624 95 41 -0.42
1254 3933225 1550 34 39 0.37
3507 5327079 1876 40 39 -1.56
 256 4575465 1644 5 34 -1.94
3751 5761952 1908 192 54 0.29
1497 5370663 1862 33 52 1.11
7439 10367601 2420 54 52 -2.22
141 9426898 2213 2 48 -2.50
4027 9992834 2364 147 56 -0.63
3543 10189925 2455 102 59 0.83
5892 11941396 2700 45 58 -1.42
2112 11442551 2661 39 57 -0.65
4340 11904453 2766 125 61 0.94
362 11211892 2624 5 58 1.13
8236 14357472 2936 50 57 -1.79
384 13609580 2802 5 55 -1.74
5569 14479914 2940 168 60 0.23
2940.17 8482962.99 2174.95 60.36 47.91 -0.62
 SUMMARY OUTPUT
Week Demand Deseasonalized
Demand
t Dt Regression Statistics
0 Multiple R 0.9554127
1 2250.00 R Square 0.9128134
2 1737.00 Adjusted R 0.9065858
3 2412.00 3575 Standard Er345.50893
4 7269.00 3783.75 Observatio 16
5 3514.00 3965.375
6 2143.00 4069.625 ANOVA
7 3459.00 4118.75 df SS MS
8 7056.00 4272.375 Regression 1 17497621 17497621
9 4120.00 4237.375 Residual 14 1671270 119376.42
10 2766.00 4274.125 Total 15 19168891
11 2556.00 4595.125
12 8253.00 4968.5 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
13 5491.00 5390.375 Intercept 2592.7476 214.87342 12.066395
14 4382.00 6083 X Variable 1226.85588 18.737853 12.106824
15 4315.00 6575.375
16 12035.00 6509.25
17 5648.00 6489.5
18 3696.00 6688.25
19 4843.00
20 13097.00

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Week Demand Deseasonalized
Demand
t Dt Regression Statistics
0 Multiple R 0.9346019
1 3200.00 R Square 0.8734807
2 7658.00 Adjusted R 0.8644436
3 4420.00 4472.25 Standard Er497.26568
4 2384.00 4656.75 Observatio 16
5 3654.00 4943.875
6 8680.00 5049.375 ANOVA
7 5695.00 5097.75 df SS MS
8 1953.00 5824.125 Regression 1 23900190 23900190
9 4472.00 6566.375 Residual 14 3461824 247273.16
10 13673.00 6782.5 Total 15 27362014
11 6640.00 6757.25
12 2737.00 6573.125 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
13 3486.00 6363.25 Intercept 3582.5965 309.25157 11.584732
14 13186.00 6307.75 X Variable 1265.13143 26.968018 9.8313281
15 5448.00 6931.5
16 3485.00 7887.375
17 7728.00 8661.5
18 16591.00 8988.875
19 8236.00
20 3316.00
 F Significance F
146.57518 8.347E-09

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

8.714E-09 2131.89 3053.6053 2131.89 3053.6053
8.347E-09 186.66719 267.04458 186.66719 267.04458
 F Significance F
96.655012 1.153E-07

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

1.468E-08 2919.3179 4245.8751 2919.3179 4245.8751
1.153E-07 207.29079 322.97208 207.29079 322.97208
 Winter's Model (Black plastic)
Seasonal Absolute
Period Demand Level Trend Factor Forecast Error Error
0.00 2592.75 226.86
1 2250 2819.60 226.86 0.90 2535.61 285.61 285.61
2 1737 3046.46 226.86 0.60 1824.45 87.45 87.45
3 2412 3273.32 226.86 0.70 2283.37 -128.63 128.63
4 7269 3500.17 226.86 1.80 6301.32 -967.68 967.68
5 3514 3727.03 226.86 0.8992792 3351.64 -162.36 162.36
6 2143 3953.88 226.86 0.5988753 2367.88 224.88 224.88
7 3459 4180.74 226.86 0.69757 2916.36 -542.64 542.64
8 7056 4407.59 226.86 1.8002896 7934.95 878.95 878.95
9 4120 4634.45 226.86 0.8992792 4167.66 47.66 47.66
10 2766 4861.31 226.86 0.5988753 2911.32 145.32 145.32
11 2556 5088.16 226.86 0.69757 3549.35 993.35 993.35
12 8253 5315.02 226.86 1.8002896 9568.57 1315.57 1315.57
13 5491 5541.87 226.86 0.8992792 4983.69 -507.31 507.31
14 4382 5768.73 226.86 0.5988753 3454.75 -927.25 927.25
15 4315 5995.59 226.86 0.69757 4182.34 -132.66 132.66
16 12035 6222.44 226.86 1.8002896 11202.20 -832.80 832.80
17 5648 6449.30 226.86 0.8992792 5799.72 151.72 151.72
18 3696 6676.15 226.86 0.5988753 3998.18 302.18 302.18
19 4843 6903.01 226.86 0.69757 4815.33 -27.67 27.67
20 13097 7129.87 226.86 1.8002896 12835.82 -261.18 261.18
21 7356.72 226.86 0.90 6615.746
22 7583.58 226.86 0.60 4405.7587
23 7810.43 226.86 0.70 5131.828
24 8037.29 226.86 1.80 13244.228
Average 5052 4975 227 1 5049 -3 446

α= 0 S1 = 0.90
β= 0 S2 = 0.60
γ= 0 S3 = 0.70
L= 2592.75 S4 = 1.80
T= 226.86

Winter's Model (Clear Model)

Seasonal Absolute
Period Demand Level Trend Factor Forecast Error Error
 Seasonal Absolute
Period Demand Level Trend Factor Forecast Error Error
0 3582.60 265.13
1 3200 3404.91 265.13 0.98 3776.59 576.59 576.59
2 7658 3251.58 265.13 2.46 9022.84 1364.84 1364.84
3 4420 3588.19 265.13 1.22 4303.94 -116.06 116.06
4 2384 4321.14 265.13 0.53 2053.30 -330.70 330.70
5 3654 3935.41 265.13 0.9815127 4501.48 847.48 847.48
6 8680 3695.54 265.13 2.4585104 10327.08 1647.08 1647.08
7 5695 4482.79 265.13 1.2238547 4847.29 -847.71 847.71
8 1953 3931.70 265.13 0.5328639 2530.00 577.00 577.00
9 4472 4467.74 265.13 0.9815127 4119.25 -352.75 352.75
10 13673 5357.48 265.13 2.4585104 11635.82 -2037.18 2037.18
11 6640 5474.02 265.13 1.2238547 6881.26 241.26 241.26
12 2737 5284.80 265.13 0.5328639 3058.19 321.19 321.19
13 3486 4043.66 265.13 0.9815127 5447.33 1961.33 1961.33
14 13186 5103.75 265.13 2.4585104 10593.20 -2592.80 2592.80
15 5448 4677.38 265.13 1.2238547 6570.73 1122.73 1122.73
16 3485 6146.78 265.13 0.5328639 2633.68 -851.32 851.32
17 7728 7513.69 265.13 0.9815127 6293.37 -1434.63 1434.63
18 16591 7002.10 265.13 2.4585104 19124.31 2533.31 2533.31
19 8236 6861.94 265.13 1.2238547 8894.03 658.03 658.03
20 3316 6445.57 265.13 0.5328639 3797.76 481.76 481.76
21 1652.25 265.13 0.98 6586.6427
22 472.08 265.13 2.46 16498.338
23 181.51 265.13 1.22 8212.9281
24 109.97 265.13 0.53 3575.8929
Average 6332 4950 265 1 6521 188 1045

α= 0.7537895 S1 = 0.98
β= 0 S2 = 2.46
γ= 0 S3 = 1.22
L= 3582.60 S4 = 0.53
T= 265.13
ack plastic)
Period Demand
MSE MAD %error MAPE TS
1 2250
81573.45 285.61 12.69 12.69 1.00 2 1737
44610.42 186.53 5.03 8.86 2.00 3 2412
35255.80 167.23 5.33 7.69 1.46 4 7269
260542.20 367.34 13.31 9.09 -1.97 5 3514
213706.06 326.35 4.62 8.20 -2.71 6 2143
186517.11 309.44 10.49 8.58 -2.14 7 3459
201937.57 342.75 15.69 9.60 -3.51 8 7056
273263.80 409.78 12.46 9.95 -0.79 9 4120
243153.59 369.54 1.16 8.98 -0.75 10 2766
220949.92 347.12 5.25 8.60 -0.38 11 2556
290567.48 405.87 38.86 11.36 2.12 12 8253
410580.97 481.68 15.94 11.74 4.52 13 5491
398794.86 483.65 9.24 11.55 3.45 14 4382
431723.27 515.33 21.16 12.23 1.44 15 4315
404114.95 489.82 3.07 11.62 1.25 16 12035
422205.32 511.26 6.92 11.33 -0.44 17 5648
398723.75 490.11 2.69 10.82 -0.14 18 3696
381645.48 479.67 8.18 10.67 0.48 19 4843
361599.16 455.88 0.57 10.14 0.45 20 13097
346929.90 446.14 1.99 9.73 -0.13

280420 394 10 10 0

ear Model)
Period Demand
MSE MAD %error MAPE TS
 Period Demand
MSE MAD %error MAPE TS
1 3200
332460.66 576.59 18.02 18.02 1.00 2 7658
1097620.81 970.72 17.82 17.92 2.00 3 4420
736237.11 685.83 2.63 12.82 2.66 4 2384
579518.97 597.05 13.87 13.08 2.50 5 3654
607259.52 647.13 23.19 15.11 3.62 6 8680
958196.69 813.79 18.98 15.75 4.90 7 5695
923970.53 818.64 14.89 15.63 3.84 8 1953
850089.85 788.43 29.54 17.37 4.72 9 4472
769461.55 740.02 7.89 16.31 4.55 10 13673
1107523.62 869.74 14.90 16.17 1.53 11 6640
1012131.25 812.60 3.63 15.03 1.93 12 2737
936383.64 771.65 11.73 14.76 2.45 13 3486
1160262.42 863.17 56.26 17.95 4.46 14 13186
1557573.88 986.71 19.66 18.07 1.28 15 5448
1537770.77 995.78 20.61 18.24 2.39 16 3485
1486956.29 986.75 24.43 18.63 1.55 17 7728
1520556.35 1013.10 18.56 18.62 0.10 18 16591
1792616.43 1097.55 15.27 18.44 2.40 19 8236
1721057.91 1074.42 7.99 17.89 3.06 20 3316
1646609.55 1044.79 14.53 17.72 3.61

1116713 858 18 17 3
Deseasonalized SUMMARY OUTPUT
Demand
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.955412699281218
3575 R Square 0.912813425947823
3783.75 Adjusted R 0.906585813515524
3965.375 Standard Er 345.50893458874
4069.625 Observatio 16
4118.75
4272.375 ANOVA
4237.375 df SS MS F
4274.125 Regression 1 17497621.062 17497621.06176 146.57518
4595.125 Residual 14 1671269.9343 119376.4238806
4968.5 Total 15 19168891
5390.375
6083 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value
6575.375 Intercept 2592.74761029412 214.87342198 12.06639511977 8.714E-09
6509.25 X Variable 1 226.855882352941 18.73785284 12.10682378006 8.347E-09
6489.5
6688.25

Deseasonalized SUMMARY OUTPUT

Demand
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.934601868260731
4472.25 R Square 0.873480652156449
4656.75 Adjusted R 0.864443555881909
4943.875 Standard Er 497.265682589509
5049.375 Observatio 16
5097.75
5824.125 ANOVA
6566.375 df SS MS F
6782.5 Regression 1 23900190.248 23900190.24845 96.655012
6757.25 Residual 14 3461824.2271 247273.1590812
6573.125 Total 15 27362014.476
6363.25
6307.75 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value
6931.5 Intercept 3582.59650735294 309.25156531 11.58473200871 1.468E-08
7887.375 X Variable 1 265.131433823529 26.968018045 9.831328107875 1.153E-07
8661.5
8988.875
 Period

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Significance F 9
8.347E-09 10
11
12
13
Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% 14
2131.89 3053.60526533 2131.8899553 3053.6052653 15
186.66719 267.044579685 186.66718502 267.04457968 16
17
18
19
20

Period
 Period

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Significance F 9
1.153E-07 10
11
12
13
Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% 14
2919.3179 4245.87514784 2919.3178669 4245.8751478 15
207.29079 322.972079927 207.29078772 322.97207993 16
17
18
19
20
 Deseasonalized Seasonal S1 = 0.8992792
Demand
Demand Factor S2 = 0.5988753
2250 2819.60 0.80 S3 = 0.69757
1737 3046.46 0.57 S4 = 1.8002896
2412 3273.32 0.74
7269 3500.17 2.08
3514 3727.03 0.94
2143 3953.88 0.54
3459 4180.74 0.83
7056 4407.59 1.60
4120 4634.45 0.89
2766 4861.31 0.57
2556 5088.16 0.50
8253 5315.02 1.55
5491 5541.87 0.99
4382 5768.73 0.76
4315 5995.59 0.72
12035 6222.44 1.93
5648 6449.30 0.88
3696 6676.15 0.55
4843 6903.01 0.70
13097 7129.87 1.84

Deseasonalized Seasonal S1 = 0.9815127

Demand
Demand
Demand Factor S2 = 2.4585104
3200 2819.60 1.13 S3 = 1.2238547
7658 3046.46 2.51 S4 = 0.5328639
4420 3273.32 1.35
2384 3500.17 0.68
3654 3727.03 0.98
8680 3953.88 2.20
5695 4180.74 1.36
1953 4407.59 0.44
4472 4634.45 0.96
13673 4861.31 2.81
6640 5088.16 1.30
2737 5315.02 0.51
3486 5541.87 0.63
13186 5768.73 2.29
5448 5995.59 0.91
3485 6222.44 0.56
7728 6449.30 1.20
16591 6676.15 2.49
8236 6903.01 1.19
3316 7129.87 0.47
 Black Plastic Conclusion
Forecasting Method MAD MAPE TS Range
4 Period Moving Average 235.43 6.09 -12.65 to -1
Simple Exponential Smoothing 2191.75 76.04 -4.24 to 4.25
Holt's Model 1476.02 42.72 -0.79 to 3
Winter's Model 394 10 -3.51 to 4,52

Clear Plastic Conclusion

Forecasting Method MAD MAPE TS Range
4 Period Moving Average 297.38 4.82 -11.78 to -1
Simple Exponential Smoothing 2758.53 71.64 -0.95 to 6.02
Holt's Model 2174.95 47.91 -2.50 to 1.13
Winter's Model 858 17 0.10 to 4.90