NABARD Rural Pulse Issue - XV, May - June 2016

Drought and Agriculture in India

Gopa Kumaran Nair G* & Greville N Kharlukhi**

Weather variations continue to play a crucial role in the success of an agricultural season in India since close to
55% of arable area is under rainfed conditions. The season 2014-15 witnessed a deficit in rainfall to the tune of
12% as compared to long period average (LPA) and the season 2015-16 recorded a deficit of 14%. Though the
area coverage of crops was not affected substantially, and the production prospects are almost comparable to
that of last year’s, what actually seems to have affected the rural sector is the unusual dry condition, affecting the
lives of all segments of the rural masses. This brief write up provides a snapshot of the deficient rainfall situation
in the country, issues and consequences and a few suggestions for mitigating the issues.

What is drought?
Box 1: Change in Nomenclature “drought”
Drought is understood as a normal, recurrent feature of climate
The IMD has officially expunged the word “drought” from its
occuring in all climatic regimes and usually characterized in terms
of its spatial extension, intensity and duration. Conditions of drought vocabulary in describing such a situation. From 2016 season,
appear when the rainfall is deficient in relation to the statistical multi- if India’s monsoon rainfall is below 10% of the normal, and spans
year average for a region, over an extended period of a season or between 20-40% of the country’s area, it would be called a
year or even more1. Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) defines “deficient” year and a more severe instance which used to be an
drought (see Box 1) in any area when the rainfall deficiency in that “All India Severe Drought Year,” will now be a “Large Deficient Year”.
area is higher than 26% of its long term normal. It is further classified Change in Nomenclature of deficit rainfall
into moderate and severe drought depending upon whether the Departure of realized rainfall from LPA Nomenclature
deficiency is between 26% to 50% and more than 50%, respectively. Old New
The country is considered affected by drought when the rainfall
Within + 10% of LPA Normal Normal
deficiency exceeds 10 % and area under drought exceeds 20% of
< 10% below LPA Below Normal Below Normal
the total area. Drought is broadly classified as (a) Meteorological
> 10% above of LPA Above Normal Above Normal
drought (b) Hydrological drought (c) Agricultural drought 2.
< 10% below LPA and span over 20 – All India Drought Deficient Year
Distribution of Precipitation and Probability of 40% of area of the country Year
Drought in India Deficiency is > 10% and spatial All India Severe Large Deficient
The country enjoys one of the highest average annual rainfalls of coverage is > 40% Drought Year Year

around 1,150 mm in the world; but, there is considerable annual The onus of declaring drought continues to be with state
variations. However, there exist considerable spatial and temporal governments and various indicators are provided in the Manual
variations in the distribution of rainfall and thereby, in availability for Drought Management prepared by the Ministry of Agriculture
of water in time and space across the country, as well. The (2009) to facilitate declaration of drought by the government.
regions with rainfall less than 400 mm occupy 12% of the total Source: IMD
geographical area, and the area below 750mm rainfall about 35%.
Out of the gross cultivated area (GCA) of the country, about 29% El Niño and La Niña phenomena. Variation of actual rainfall as
is subject to inadequate and highly variable rainfall. Drought-prone compared to LPA in the country since 1900 is shown in Chart 2.
districts account for 42% of the country’s cultivable lands. Rain-fed
agriculture, particularly in these areas, have an important place in Chart 1 : Probability of occurrence of drought in different
India’s economy3. meteorological sub division (Frequency of deficient rainfall
Based on the analysis of long time rainfall data for the period 75% of normal or less)
from 1875 – 2004, probability of occurrence of drought in different Once in Once in 4 Once in 3 Once in 2.5
meteorological subdivisions in the country is given in Chart 1. Once in 5 years
15 years years years yrs

Meteorological Droughts in India WB, MP, West MH, South Interior East Rajastan, West
Assam,
Konkan, Kerala, Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat, East Rajastan
Droughts in India are mainly due to various kinds of failures of rains NER
JHD, Odisha,AP, HP,Vidarbha UP, J&K. TN Telengana
from southwest monsoon and the much debated association with

*Deputy General Manager ** Manager, Department of Economic Analysis and Research, NABARD, Mumbai
1
Government of India. 2009, Manual for Drought Management, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture, New Delhi.
2
Occur when (a) deficiency of precipitation from expected or normal levels over an extended period of time, (b) deficiencies in surface and subsurface water supplies
leading to a lack of water for normal and specific needs and (c) triggered by meteorological and hydrological droughts, occurs when soil moisture and rainfall are
inadequate during the crop growing season causing extreme crop stress, respectively.
3
Accessed from http://www.downtoearth.org.in/themes/DTE/

Department of Economic Analysis and Research 1

NABARD Rural Pulse
The frequency of drought has varied over the decades. From 1900 to
1920, there were 7 drought years. The incidence of drought came down
between 1921 and 1965 when the country witnessed just 3 drought
years. Again, during 1965–87, there were 10 drought years and the
increased frequency was attributed to the El Niño Southern Oscillation
(ENSO). Among the drought years, the 1987 drought was one of the
worst droughts of the century, with an overall rainfall deficiency of 19%
and affecting 60% of the crop area and 285 million population.
In 2002 too, the overall rainfall deficiency for the country as a
whole was 19%. Over 300 million people spread over 18 States
were affected by drought in varying degrees. Around 150 million
cattle were affected due to lack of fodder and water. Food grains
production registered the steepest fall of 29 million tonnes. No other
drought in the past had caused reduction in food grain production
to this extent4. Though the rainfall deficit was substantial (almost
- 23%) during 2009, it did not have much impact on the economy,
partially attributed to the quick and effective response mechanism
that the country had adopted during the period.
Effect of El Niño on drought
El Niño phenomena is considered to be influencing weather
in different parts of the world. However, there is no concrete
evidence to establish strong relation between El Niño and drought
in Indian condition. During the period from 1900 to 2002 there
were 27 drought years (considering area affected criteria > 20%),
of which 15 were in El Niño years. However, there were 16 El
Niño years without having any drought effects. Similarly, during
the period, there were 20 years with deficit rainfall (> 10%) of
which, 13 were in El Niño years and the remaining were non El
Niño years. Hence the effect of El Niño on drought occurrences
in the country is considered marginal5. However, agriculture
4
GoI, Drought Manual, 2009
5
Shewale MP, Shravan Kumar, 2005, Climatological features of drought incidences in India, Climatology No. 21/2005, IMD, Pune.
6
GoI , Economic Survey 2015-16
Department of Economic Analysis and Research 2
Issue - XV, May - June 2016
production showed substantial variation during El Niño years.
The average agricultural growth in El Niño years between 1981-82
and 2015-16 has been (-)2.1% compared with a period average of
3% and 8.4% during La Niña years6.
Impact of Drought
Drought affects almost all facets of the rural economy. The economic
impact of drought can be traced in production losses in agriculture
and related sectors, especially forestry and fisheries, loss of
income, loss to industries dependent upon the primary sector for
their raw materials, reduction in employment, flow of credit and tax
collections, etc. Drought affect the environment through lowering
water levels and damage to aquifers, non-availability of feed and
drinking water(affecting marine and wildlife habitat), loss of forest
cover and wildlife, increased stress among endangered species,
changes in the levels of salinity, increased groundwater depletion,
increased soil erosion, loss of biological productivity and so on.
Drought also causes impact on social aspects such as out migration
of the population from the drought-affected areas, withdrawal of
children from schools, sale of assets such as land or cattle, loss of
social status and dignity etc. Other issues range from inadequate
food intake leading to malnutrition, starvation; and at times generate
situations of conflict, which could be socially very disruptive. The
largest impact of a drought is seen on the weaker sections such
as landless laborers, small and marginal farmers, artisans, weavers
etc.. The limited savings/assets they have, gets quickly exhausted
and they are compelled to go in for distress sale or mortgage their
land and belongings.
Perhaps the most devastating effect of crop loss in drought
affected areas will be the suicide of farmers. In the Indian context,
farmer suicides are considered as a manifestation of extreme self-
NABARD Rural Pulse Issue - XV, May - June 2016

perceived misery. For the farmers who are under various pressures
such as increased cost of cultivation, high-cost loan from money
lenders, price fluctuation, policy volatility, ineffective risk coverage,
higher indebtedness etc., any shock affecting income/livelihood will
lead them to resort to extreme steps.
In the case of male farmers’ suicides, the impact of adverse
aggregate economic shocks7 and increased number of hot days with
deficient rainfall during the agricultural growing season8, were found
to have significant role. Studies also observed effect of economic
shocks on female suicides9, female infants’ survival10 (which was
found more sensitive to rainfall shocks than that of males) increased
dowry murders (in years of farm stress)11, etc.
The dry climate affected most of the districts in 11 states viz.,
Maharashtra (21 district out of 36), Odisha(16/30) Telangana (8/10),
Rajasthan (19/33), Madhya Pradesh(46/51), Jharkhand (22/24),
Uttar Pradesh(50/75), Karnataka (27/30), Andhra Pradesh (7/13 )
Chhattisgarh (all) and Gujarat(6/33). The severity of the issue was
further strengthened when the Supreme Court (May 2016) directed
the Central Govt. to consider drought as a disaster and constitute
a national response force along with a consolidated fund within six
months to deal with drought situations.

The Dry Season 2015

Cumulative effect of two consecutive deficit in monsoon seasons,
their adverse spatial temporal spread have caused drought like
situation across various states in the country. In 2014, for the
country as a whole, the rainfall for the season (June-September)
was deficient (88% of LPA). Out of 615 districts in the country, the
season rainfall was excess in 56 (9.1%) districts, normal in 279
(45.4%) districts, deficient in 223(36.3) districts, scanty in 56 (9.1%)
districts and no rainfall in 1 (0.1%) district. During last 10 years, Agriculture and Drought
after 2009, the highest number of districts (46%) to receive deficient/
The fluctuations in availability of rainfall and its spread have a strong
scanty/no season rainfall was in 2014.
bearing on the agriculture economy and thereby a larger share of
the households who depend on it for their livelihood. The impact is
Rainfall during 2015, was 86% of its long period average. Thus, the
visible in the trend in the variation of rainfall and movement of GDP
years 2014 & 2015 were the fourth case of two consecutive all India
from agriculture sector (Chart 3).
deficient monsoon years during the last 115 years. Out of the total
36 meteorological subdivisions, 18 subdivisions constituting 55% of
Table 1 : Agriculture production (Million tonnes)
the total area of the country received normal season rainfall and 17 No Item 2003-04 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16* 2015-16 Estimated
subdivisions (39% of the total area of the country) received deficient Trend ** Shortfall
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
season rainfall and one subdivision received excess rainfall12. 1 Rice 88.5 105 107 105 103 109.8 -6.4(5.8)
2 Wheat 72.2 93.5 95.9 86.5 94.0 101.9 -7.9(7.7)
Cumulative effect of the deficiency in rainfall resulted in shortage 3 Coarse 37.6 40.0 43.3 42.9 37.8 44.1 -6.3(14.3)
in water availability in several states. The total water available in Cereals
4 Pulses 14.9 18.3 19.3 17.2 17.1 19.6 -2.5(12.9)
live storage of 91 reservoirs in the country monitored by Central
A Total 213 257 265 252 252 275.3 -23.3(8.5)
Water Commission was 30.71 BCM13, as on 05 May 2016. This was foodgrains
19% of the total live storage capacity of these reservoirs and 77% 5 Oilseeds 25.2 30.9 32.7 27.5 25.9 33.3 -7.4(22.3)
6 Cotton# 13.7 34.2 35.9 34.8 30.5 41.6 -11.1(26.7)
of average availability during last 10 years hinting at the intensity of 7 Sugarcane 234 341 352 362 347 385.7 -38.7(10.0)
the issue. Government of India, in Lok Sabha, stated that drought In million bales of 170Kgs, *3rd adv. Esti.
** Estimated using the Linear trend (using 2003-04 to 2013-14 actual production data)
has affected nearly a quarter of the country’s population and has left Figures in parenthesis refer to % shortfall as compared col. 7
an impact on over 1.5 lakh villages14 in 313 districts in the country. Source : Director of Economics and Statistics MoACFW, GoI

7
Sarah Hebous and Stefan Klonner, 2013, Economic Distress and Farmer Suicides in India: An Econometric Investigation, Discussion Paper Series No. 565,
Department of Economics, University of Heidelberg.
8
Burgess, R., Desches, O., Donaldson, D. and Greenstone, M. (2011), Weather and Death in India. Working Paper, London School of Economics and Political
Science.
9
Sarah Hebous and Stefan Klonner, 2013, Economic Distress and Farmer Suicides in India: An Econometric Investigation , Discussion Paper Series No. 565,
Department of Economics, University of Heidelberg
10
Rose, E. (1999), Consumption Smoothing and Excess Female Mortality in Rural India, The Review of Economics and Statistics 81(1), 41 - 49.
11
Sekhri, S. and Storeygard, A. (2013), Dowry Deaths: Consumption Smoothing in Response to Climate Variability in India, Virginia Economics Online Papers 407,
University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
12
India Meteorological Department, GoI.
13
Billion Cubic Metres and 1 BCM = 10000 crore litres)
14
PTI, May 11, 2016.

Department of Economic Analysis and Research 3

NABARD Rural Pulse
A study by RBI15 also concluded that Indian agriculture has not
become completely insulated from large fluctuations in rainfall; but,
as the 2009 -10 experience shows, the impact of adverse monsoon
shocks can be ameliorated by proactive policy measures.
Impact of dry season 2015 on agriculture sector is not very clear,
but the 3rd Advance Estimates (MoA, GoI) indicate that the drought
has affected the production front and there will be a stagnation
in the total foodgrain and other commercial crops in India (Table
1). Though the 3rd Advance Estimates indicate stagnancy in the
situation 2015-16 as compared to previous year, there is a sharp
shortfall in the production achievements as compared to the last 11
years’ trend. Using the actual data for the period from 2003-04 to
2013-14, the trend value for the year 2015-16 has been estimated
(col 8 in Table 1; Chart 4 and 5).
There is a sharp decline in the production in case of cotton (26.7%),
Oilseeds (3.3%) Coarse cereals (14.3%) and pulses (12.9%) in
the anticipated (3rd Advance Estimate) as compared to the trend
values. The impact of drought (2014-15 and 2015-16) is relatively
less in case of production of rice, wheat and total foodgrains the gap
being relatively narrow.
15
Monsoon and Indian Agriculture – Conjoined or Decoupled?, RBI Bulletin May 2015
16
http://www.unwater.org/downloads/Water_facts_and_trends.pdf
Publisher :- Shri M. V. Ashok, CGM, Department of Economic Analysis and Research (DEAR), NABARD, Head Office: Plot No. C-24, ‘G’ Block, Bandra-Kurla
Complex, Bandra (E), Mumbai- 400051
Disclaimer: “Rural Pulse” is the publication of the Bank. The opinions expressed in the publication, are that of the Research Team and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank or its
subsidiaries. The contents can be reproduced with proper acknowledgement. The write-up is based on information & data procured from various sources and no responsibility is accepted
for the accuracy of facts and figures. The Bank or the Research Team assumes no liability, if any, person or entity relies on views, opinions or facts & figures finding place in the document.
email ID : dear@nabard.org
Department of Economic Analysis and Research 4
Issue - XV, May - June 2016
The analysis point that a larger production crunch is emerging in
the macro agriculture scene. Agriculture growth was projected at
4% in the 12th Five-Year Plan. The average growth registered in the
sector during the first 4 year of the FYP is close to 1.7% on account
of disturbances created by successive drought years. A negative
growth or a stagnancy in food production scenario evolving for this
year, could further aggravate the situation threatening our food
security situation, as well.
Way forward
The world is not running out of water, but it is not always available
when and where people need and it is increasingly becoming a
more valuable commodity due to variations in availability, droughts
and overuse. Climate, normal seasonal variations, droughts and
floods can all contribute to local extreme conditions16. Addressing
drought is a gradual process as compared to other natural calamities
affecting farming community. Considering the spread and impact of
the problem, drought mitigation requires careful attention at policy
level and effective action on ground. What is most important is the
long term sustainable solution to avoid such occurrence, in future.
Some suggestions are:
• Promotion of investments in irrigation structures, drip irrigation,
micro irrigation, rainwater harvesting, ground water recharging
and crops (including genetically modified ones) better able to
withstand droughts or grow in brackish water.
• Decentralized/ homestead level collection and preservation of
rain water to reduce the risk of drought with suitable legislation,
incentive mechanism. Rejuvenation of common water bodies,
with community participation and its preservation.
• Since allied activities are less sensitive to variations in the
monsoon, ongoing efforts towards diversification of agriculture
in favour of allied activities are capable to generate greater
resilience.
• Crop insurance seems to be the missing link causing distress
among the affected farmers. Probably, an effective insurance
scheme can be a better route to purvey subsidy to the real farmer
compared to the present system.
• Wage employment programme provides a cushion to bridge the
income gap on account of drought. Ample wage employment
opportunities need to be provided in the drought affected areas
through channels like MGNREGA.
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