The binomial probability distribution

Many real-life experiments are analogous to tossing an unbalanced coin a number n of

times.

Example 5.8 Suppose that 80% of the jobs submitted to a data-processing center are of a
statistical nature. Then selecting a random sample of 10 submitted jobs would be
analogous to tossing an unbalanced coin 10 times, with the probability of observing a
head (drawing a statistical job) on a single trial equal to 0.80.

Example 5.9 Test for impurities commonly found in drinking water from private wells
showed that 30% of all wells in a particular country have impurity A. If 20 wells are
selected at random then it would be analogous to tossing an unbalanced coin 20 times,
with the probability of observing a head (selecting a well with impurity A) on a single
trial equal to 0.30.

Example 5.10 Public opinion or consumer preference polls that elicit one of two
responses – Yes or No, Approve or Disapprove,... are also analogous to the unbalanced
coin tossing experiment if the size N of the population is large and the size n of the
sample is relatively small.
All these experiments are particular examples of a binomial experiment known as a
Bernoulli process, after the seventeenth-century Swiss mathematician, Jacob Bernoulli.
Such experiments and the resulting binomial random variables have the following
characteristics, which form the model of a binomial random variable.
 Model (or characteristics) of a binomial random variable
1. The experiment consists of n identical trials
2. There are only 2 possible outcomes on each trial. We will denote one outcome by
S (for Success) and the other by F (for Failure).
3. The probability of S remains the same from trial to trial. This probability will be
denoted by p, and the probability of F will be denoted by q ( q = 1-p).
4. The trials are independent.
5. The binomial random variable x is the number of S’ in n trials.

The binomial probability distribution, its mean and its standard deviation are given the
following formulas:

The probability distribution, mean and variance for a binomial random

variable :
1. The probability distribution:
p(x) = Cnx p x q n− x (x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n),
where
p = probability of a success on a single trial, q=1-p
n = number of trials, x= number of successes in n trials
n!
C nx = = combination of x from n.
x!(n-x)!
2. The mean: µ = np
3. The variance: σ 2 = npq

Example 5.11 (see also Example 5.9) Test for impurities commonly found in drinking
water from private wells showed that 30% of all wells in a particular country have
impurity A. If a random sample of 5 wells is selected from the large number of wells in
the country, what is the probability that:
a) Exactly 3 will have impurity A?
b) At least 3?
c) Fewer than 3?
Solution First we confirm that this experiment possesses the characteristics of a binomial
experiment. This experiment consists of n = 5 trials, one corresponding to each random
selected well. Each trial results in an S (the well contains impurity A) or an F (the well
does not contain impurity A). Since the total number of wells in the country is large, the
probability of drawing a single well and finding that it contains impurity A is equal to
0.30 and this probability will remain the same for each of the 5 selected wells. Further,
since the sampling is random, we assume that the outcome on any one well is unaffected
by the outcome of any other and that the trials are independent. Finally, we are interested
in the number x of wells in the sample of n = 5 that contain impurity A. Therefore, the
sampling process represents a binomial experiment with n = 5 and p = 0.30.
a) The probability of drawing exactly x = 3 wells containing impurity A is

p(x) = Cnx p x q n− x with n = 5, p = 0.30 and x = 3. We have by this formula

5!
p( 3 ) = ( 0.30 )3( 1 − 0.30 )5 −3 = 0.1323 .
3!2!
b) The probability of observing at least 3 wells containing impurity A is
P(x ≥ 3) = p(3)+p(4)+p(5). We have calculated p(3) = 0.1323 and we leave to the reader
to verify that p(4) = 0.02835, p(5) = 0.00243. In result, P(3) =
0.1323+0.02835+0.00243 = 0.16380.
c) Although P(x<3) = p(0)+p(1)+p(2), we can avoid calculating 3 probabilities by using
the complementary relationship P(x<3) = 1-P(x ≥ 3) = 1-0.16380 = 0.83692.