JOURNAL OF SPORT & EXERCISE PSYCHOLOGY, 1995.17.

399415
O 1995 Human Kinetics Publishers, Inc.

Psychological Skills as Predictors of Performance and

Survival in Professional Baseball

Ronald E. Smith Donald S. Christensen

University o f Washington and University of Washington
Houston Astros Baseball C l u b

The role of physical and psychological skills as predictors of performance

and survival in professional baseball was studied in a sample of 104 minor
league baseball players. Psychological and physical skills were largely uncor-
related with one another and appear to be measuring separate and independent
skill domains. Preseason scores on the Athletic Coping Skills Inventory
(ACSI-28) and coaches'/managers' ratings of the same skills on an ACSI
Rating Form each accounted for as much performance variance in batting
average (approximately 20%) as did physical skills when differences in the
latter were statistically controlled, and the psychological measures accounted
for substantially more variance in pitchers' earned run averages than did the
expert ratings of physical skills. The psychological skills measures also
predicted athletes' survival in professional baseball 2 and 3 years after they
were obtained. Bayesian hit rate anlayses indicated substantially increased
survival predictability over simple base rate predictions.

Key words: athletic coping skills, performance prediction

Most theories, research, and interventions in sport psychology are based

on the assumption that psychological factors are important determinants of sport
performance. As a consequence of this assumption, considerable emphasis has been
placed on identifying relevant psychological skills and instructing coaches, athletes,
i d sport consultank in how to^ teach, learn, and apply these skills (e.g., Anshel,
1994; Nideffer, 1992; Orlick, 1990; Williams, 1993). Although empirical support
has sometimes lagged behind application, a growing research literature has provided
evidence that psychological skills such as stress management, attention control, and
mental preparation are related, at least modestly, to athletic performance (Crocker,
Alderman, & Smith, 1988; Gould, Weiss, & Weinberg, 1981; Greenspan & Feltz,
1989; Mahoney, Gabriel, & Perkins, 1987; Murphy & Jowdy, 1992).
One source of information about the role of psychological skills in athletic

Ronald E. Smith and Donald S. Christensen are with the Department of Psychology
at the University of Washington, Box 351525, Seattle, WA 98195-1525.
 400 / Smith and Christensen

performance involves the use of self-report measures of specific psychological skills

to compare athletes who differ from one another in competitive level (e.g., elite
athletes vs. nonelite groups) or in level of performance. Such studies have revealed
group differences that tend to favor the elite and better-performing athletes (e.g.,
Cox & Davis, 1989; Nideffer, 1993; Mahoney, 1989; Mahoney et al., 1987).
Although such results are encouraging, their interpretation has been clouded by
serious questions concerning the factorial validity of commonly used psychological
skills measures (e.g., Chartrand, Jowdy, & Danish, 1992; Ford & Summers, 1992).
Additionally, psychological skills studies have typically relied upon self-report
measurement in the absence of convergent psychological skills data from other
sources (such as coaches), and relatively little is known about the level of agreement
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between self-report and third-party evaluations of psychological skills. Moreover,

when relating psychological skills to performance, it is important to assess or control
for the role of physical skill differences among athletes so that the two sets of skills
are not confounded. This potential confound could be avoided by obtaining measures
of physical skills so as to control statistically for physical skills differences among
athletes, but this approach has not been utilized in previously published studies.
For these reasons, many questions concerning the role of psychological skills in
athletic performance remain unanswered.
Our study addresses several of the issues discussed above. It was carried
out among elite athletes in professional baseball, where only about 5% of all
players who sign professional contracts are successful in reaching the major
leagues. When the costs of operating a minor league player development system
are taken into account, it is estimated that professional baseball organizations
spend an average of $1.8-2.2 million in development costs for every player who
succeeds in reaching the major leagues (F.H. Nelson, Houston Astros, personal
communication, June 14, 1994; Nightingale, 1990). Evidence that psychological
skills are important predictors of performance and survival in the sport would add
impetus to an increasing trend on the part of professional baseball organizations to
establish psychological skills training programs as part of their player develop-
ment programs (Dorfman, 1990; Ravizza, 1990; Smith & Johnson, 1990). Thus,
the topic of this study has practical, as well as scientific, implications.
The goal of this study was to evaluate the relative importance of psychologi-
cal and physical skill factors in predicting performance and survival in sport. A
factorially valid self-report measure of psychological skills was used to obtain
data from players, and a parallel instrument was developed in order to obtain
psychological skills ratings from managers, coaches, and instructors who had
worked with the players the previous season. It was therefore possible to assess
relations between player self-report and staff ratings of the psychological skills.
In addition, detailed expert ratings of physical skills were available from organiza-
tional records, permitting an assessment of relations between physical and psycho-
logical skills, as well as the ability to control statistically for physical talent
differences when evaluating the predictive value of the player and staff measures
of psychological skills.

Method
Participants
Participants were 104 minor league baseball players in the Houston ~ s t r o s
organization. Only English-speaking players who could read the items on the
 Performance and Survival in Baseball / 401

psychological skills measure were included in the study. The players signed a
consent form that assured them that their responses would be used for research
purposes only and would not be seen by any member of the organization other
than the first author without their written permission. The sample consisted of
57 position players (catchers, infielders, and outfielders) and 47 pitchers, all of
whom had played in the organization the previous season (1990). During the
season in which the performance prediction data were collected, the players were
members of four teams at the minor league Class A level and one team at the
AA level. None of the athletes had played in the major leagues.

Measures
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Athlete Measure of Psychological Skills. Self-reported psychological

skills were assessed using a newly refined version of the Athletic Coping Skills
Inventory (ACSI; Smith, Smoll, & Ptacek, 1990; Smith, Ptacek, & Smoll, 1992).
The new measure used in this study is known as the ACSI-28 (Smith, Schutz,
Smoll, & Ptacek, 1995). Developed by means of exploratory factor analyses of
the original 42-item scale followed by confirmatory factor analyses, the ACSI-
28 consists of seven 4-item scales: Coping With Adversity, Coachability, Concen-
tration, Confidence and Achievement Motivation, Goal Setting and Mental Prepa-
ration, Peaking Under Pressure, and Freedom From Worry. Confirmatory factor
analyses using the LISREL 8 program (Joreskog & Sorbom, 1993) indicated a
good fit (comparative fit index [CFI] = .91; root mean square error approximation
[RMSEA] = .044) between the subscales and the underlying seven-factor model
for both male and female athletes (Smith et al., 1995). The individual items (or
the subscale scores) can be summed to yield a total Personal Coping Resources
score. In the validation sample, the ACSI-28 had a full-scale internal consistency
(Cronbach's alpha) of 3 6 , and subscale alphas ranged from .62 to .78, with a
mean alpha of .70. In the present sample, the full scale alpha was also 3 6 , but the
subscale reliabilities were generally somewhat higher than in the male validation
sample, with the exception of the Confidence and the Achievement Motivation
and Coachability subscales, which were lower (.50 and .59, respectively). The
latter reduced the mean subscale alpha to .69. Given the small number of items
per subscale, and the extent to which coefficient alpha is affected by test length,
low alphas can provide a practical underestimate of subscale item intercorrela-
tions, which are the basis for internal consistency (Nunnally & Bemstein, 1994).'
We therefore judge the subscales to be sufficiently reliable for use in exploratory
research of this type.
ACSI Rating Form. To obtain measures of the psychological skills from
coaches and managers who knew the players well, a definitional Athletic Coping
Skills Inventory (ACSI) Rating Form was developed to assess the psychological
skills constructs measured by the ACSI-28. In the definitional approach, which
has been used in other studies of the coping process (e.g., Ptacek, Smith, Espe, &
Raffety, 1994; Ptacek, Smith, & Zanas, 1992; Stone & Neale, 1984), the items
that make up the longer scale are summarized into a brief paragraph describing
the construct, and respondents provide a single rating based on the definitional
description. Previous research has demonstrated the convergent validity of defini-
tional measures of coping (Ptacek et al., 1994), and it is a useful approach to
collecting data when time constraints make it impractical for respondents to
 402 / Smith and Christensen

repeatedly complete a longer multi-item scale such as the ACSI-28. This might
occur in longitudinal studies when daily measures are being collected (e.g., Ptacek
et al., 1992; Stone & Neale, 1984) or when the same respondent is being asked
to provide data on a large number of other people, as in the present study.
The definitional items of the ACSI Rating Form are as follows:

Peaking Under Pressure: Is challenged rather than threatened by pressure

situations and performs well under pressure; a clutch performer.
Freedom From Worry: Does not put pressure on himself by worrying about
performing poorly or making mistakes; does not worry about what others
will think if he performs poorly.
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Coping With Adversity: Remains positive and enthusiastic even when things
are going badly; remains calm and controlled; can quickly bounce back
from mistakes and setbacks.
Concentration: Not easily distracted; able to focus on the task at hand in
both practice and game situations, even when adverse or unexpected situa-
tions occur.
Goal Setting and Mental Preparation: Sets and works toward specific
performance goals; plans and mentally prepares himself for games and
clearly has a "game plan" for pitching, hitting, playing hitters, base run-
ning, and so on.
Confidence and Achievement Motivation: Is confident and positively moti-
vated; consistently gives 100% during practice and games and works hard
to improve his skills.
Coachability: Open to and learns from instruction; accepts constructive
criticism without taking it personally and becoming upset.

When completing the measure, coachesJmanagers were given individual forms

containing the name of an athlete and the following written instructions:
Please rate this player on each of the following psychological attributes in
comparison with other players at his level in minor league baseball. Use
the following scale in making your ratings: 1 =far below average; 2 =
below average; 3 = average; 4 = above average; 5 =far above average.

Physical Skills. A measure of physical skills was derived from detailed

organizational ratings of each player made by managers, coaches, and roving
minor league instructors. In the Astros organization, each player is rated on a
series of 8-point ability scales on a monthly basis throughout the season. For
example, pitchers are rated on such variables as velocity, control, and movement
on their fast ball; adequacy of their breaking ball and changeup; ability to hold
runners on base; and ability to field their position. Batters are rated on such
variables as bat speed, power, ability to make contact, running speed, arm strength
and accuracy, and fielding ability. These ratings are summarized in a single
score called the Overall Average Evaluation (OAE), which is considered by the
organization to be the most useful index of current and projected physical ability
in these skill areas (D. O'Brien, Director, Houston Astros Scouting Department,
personal communication, September 10, 1993). The OAE score was therefore
adopted as our measure of overall physical ability as a pitcher or position player.
 Performance and Survival in Baseball / 403

Perj5ormance Measures. End-of-season statistical data were used to mea-

sure performance during the 1991 season. From among the available statistics,
we selected batting average (number of base hits divided by number of times at
bat) as the performance outcome measure for hitters (position players) and earned
run average (ERA, number of runs allowed per nine innings pitched) as the
performance criterion measure for pitchers.
Survival in the Sport. Because of the limited number of positions available
on team rosters and because as many as 30 new players are signed annually,
many players are released each year. Some of these players are signed by other
organizations, but most of them end their careers at that point. Survival, defined
as continued participation in professional baseball either with the Astros or with
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another organization, was assessed from data provided by the Astros 2 years
and, again, 3 years after the collection of the psychological and physical skills
measures.

Procedure
The psychological and physical skill data were obtained before and during
the 1991 season. Psychological skills data were obtained from players and from
managers/coaches during spring training. Players completed the ACSI-28 in
groups of approximately 25 after being informed about the nature of the study
and assured that the data were confidential, would be used only for research
purposes, and would not be made available to anyone else in the organization.
Names were replaced with code numbers when the data were prepared for analysis.
The ACSI Rating Forms were completed by the staff member who was
best acquainted with the player as a result of working with him the previous
season. For position players, the respondent was typically the previous manager,
whereas for pitchers, the respondent was the pitching coach who had worked
most closely with the athlete the previous season. Prior to completion of the
forms, the first author held a group training session during which each of the
psychological skills was discussed with the staff, together with examples of
behaviors that would be indicative of high or low levels of that skill.
Because physical skills were to be used as a control variable, as well as a
predictor of performance, it was desirable to have current measures of ability,
particularly in view of the possibility that participation in fall instructional league
or winter leagues could result in varying degrees of improvement over the previous
season. For this reason, OAE measures made by minor league staff members
during the first half of the 1991 season as part of the organization's ongoing
player evaluation procedure were used to derive the physical skills measure.
Multiple independent ratings were made by the current team's manager, its coach,
and either its pitching instructor (in the case of pitchers) or the organization's
roving hitting instructor. For position players, three ratings were averaged to
create a composite OAE rating that was used as the measure of physical talent;
for pitchers, two ratings (the manager's and the pitching coach's) were used. An
internal consistency analysis of the ratings for each player yielded Cronbach's
alphas of .78 for pitchers and .81 for position players.

Results
Analyses were carried out in four stages. First, the psychological skills
measures derived from the ACSI-28 and the ACSI Coach Rating Form were
 404 / Smith and Christensen

correlated with one another and with the OAE measure of physical skills. These
three predictor measures were then correlated with the performance outcome
measures. Next, hierarchical regression analyses were performed to assess the
ability of the psychological skills measures to account for performance variance
after extracting variance attributable to individual differences in physical skills.
Finally, the ability of the physical and psychological skills measures to predict
survival in professional baseball at the end of 2 and 3 years was assessed in a
series of discriminant analyses. Analyses derived from Bayesian statistics were
then carried out to assess the incremental validity of the predictor measures over
decisions derived solely from survival base rates.
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Relations Among Skill and Performance Measures

Means and standard deviations for all variables are presented in Table 1.
A correlational analysis of relations between the physical and psychological skills
measures revealed that neither the coach nor the player measures of psychological
skills were correlated highly with the OAE physical skills measure. Of the
coaches' scales, only Peaking Under Pressure ( r = .33) shared as much as 10%
common variance with the OAE measure, and the mean correlation of the coach
scales with OAE was .21. The total score on the ACSI Rating Form correlated

Table 1 Means and Standard Deviations of the Predictor

and Outcome Variables

Measure M SD

ACSI-28
Adversity
Coachability
Concentration
Confidence
Goal setting
Peaking
wony
ACSI Rating Form
Adversity
Coachability
Concentration
Confidence
Goal setting
Peaking
wow
Physical Skills/Performance
Physical skills (OAE)
Batting average
Earned run average (ERA)
 Performance and Survival in Baseball / 405

Table 2 Correlations Between ACSI-28 and ACSI Rating Form Measures

of Psychological Skills for Position Players and Pitchers

Skill variable Position players Pitchers

Adversity
Coachability
Concentration
Confidence
Goal setting
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Peaking
wow
Total

Note. Sample includes 57 position players and 47 pitchers.

*p < .05.**p < .01.

.26 with OAE, indicating less than 7% common variance. It does not appear,
therefore, that staff inferences concerning players' psychological skills are related
to evaluations of physical ability.
In the case of the ACSI-28 scales completed by the players, none correlated
significantly with physical skills, and the mean correlation for the seven scales
was -.04. The correlation of the ACSI-28 total (Personal Coping Resources)
score with OAE was -.07. Thus, the physical and psychological skills may be
considered to be relatively independent of one another.
In Table 2, the correlations between the ACSI-28 and the ACSI Rating
Form measures of psychological skills are presented. Although the correlations
were statistically significant for 5 of the 7 scales, they were quite modest in
magnitude, averaging only .25. For position players, the highest correlations were
found for Coachability (r = .52), Coping With Adversity (r = .47), and Confidence
(r = .46). The total scores on the two measures correlated .48. For pitchers, the
highest player-staff correlation was for Peaking Under Pressure (r = .44), and
the total scores correlated .31. The results therefore indicate a relatively low level
of agreement between self-report and third-party evaluations of the psychological
skills, particularly for the individual subscales. From a multitrait-multimethod
perspective (Campbell & Fiske, 1959), the measures have relatively poor conver-
gent validity. Discriminant validity was also poor, with higher coach-player
correlations being obtained on noncorresponding than on corresponding scales
for Concentration, Goal Setting and Mental Preparation, and Peaking Under
Pressure. On the remaining four scales, correspondent correlations between coach
and player measures were highest.
Table 3 shows the correlations of the player and coach psychological skills
measures with the performance measures. The ability of the OAE measure to
predict performance was substantially better for batting performance (+.47) than
for pitching (-.18). It should be noted that in the case of earned run average
(ERA), a low score represents high performance, so that negative correlations
with the skills measures would be expected.
 406 / Smith and Christensen

Table 3 Product-Moment and Partial Correlations of Psychological and Physical

Skill Measures With Batting Average and Earned Run Average

Batting average Earned run average

Skill ACSI-28 ACSI Ratings ACSI-28 ACSI Ratings

Adversity
Coachability
Concentration
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Confidence
Goal setting
Peaking
wony
Total
Physical skill (OAE)

Note. Numbers in parentheses represent the partial correlations, with the Overall Aver-
age Evaluation (OAE) partialed out. In the case of earned run average, a low score in-
dicates high performance, and a negative correlation therefore indicates a positive
relation between a skill and pitching performance. For batting average, a high score de-
notes good performance.
*p < .05. **p < .01.

The staff ratings of psychological skills were relatively good predictors of

performance over the coming season for both batting average and ERA. The
total score over all scales (corresponding to the Personal Coping Resources score
on the ACSI-28) correlated .48 with batting average and -.55 with ERA, greatly
exceeding the physical skills measure in predictive accuracy for the pitchers.
Staff ratings of the ability to peak under pressure was the best predictor of both
batting and pitching performance.
The players' scores on the ACSI-28 were less highly correlated with perfor-
mance than were the staff measures. For both batting and pitching measures, the
Confidence and Achievement Motivation scale was the strongest predictor of
performance. Peaking Under Pressure was also a modest predictor of pitching
performance but not of batting average. The ACSI-28's Personal Coping Re-
sources total score correlated similarly (and nonsignificantly)with batting average
and ERA. Thus, although the staff ahd player measures were only modestly
correlated, certain subscales on both predicted performance at a statistically
significant level. However, these analyses did not control for differences in
measures of physical ability.
Our next set of analyses assessed the amount of performance variance
accounted for by individual differences in psychological skills when differences
in physical ability were statistically controlled. First, partial correlations were
computed between the psychological skills scores and the performance measures
with OAE partialed out. As shown in Table 3, controlling for physical skill
variance in this manner did not markedly alter the relations between the psycho-
logical skill and performance measures. In the case of batting average, however,
 Performance and Survival in Baseball / 407

the partial correlations for the players' scores on Coping With Adversity and the
ACSI-28 total score increased enough to attain statistical significance. On the
other hand, the correlations between batting average and the staff ratings of
psychological skills were lowered slightly with OAE partialed out, though the
pattern of significant relations was not altered.
Analyses were then conducted to assess the general contribution of psycho-
logical skills to performance with physical skills controlled. A series of hierarchi-
cal regression analyses was carried out in which the OAE measure was entered
first to extract performance variance accounted for by physical skills, followed
on the second step by the block of seven psychological skills. Of interest was
the incremental variance accounted for by the addition of the psychological skills
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variables to the regression equation. Four regression analyses were conducted to

evaluate the role of the player and coach measures in accounting for variance in
batting average and ERA.
The results of the regression analyses are presented in Table 4. For batting
average, the OAE measure accounted for a statistically significant 21% of the
performance variance. Entry of the coach scales from the ACSI Rating Form after
controlling for performance variance attributable to physical skills differences
accounted for an additional 20% of the variance, resulting in a significant incre-
ment in performance variance accounted for to 41.3%. Despite the modest bivari-
ate correlations between the players' subscale scores and batting average, the
corresponding analysis using the ACSI-28 players' scores resulted in a linear
combination of the subscales that produced a statistically significantR2increment
of 23% over that accounted for by physical skills alone. In the case of batting
average, therefore, physical and psychological skills independently accounted
for approximately equal amounts of performance variance.
As noted earlier, the OAE measure was an unexpectedly poor predictor of

Table 4 Hierarchical Regression Analyses of Physical and Psychological Skills as

Predictors of Batting and Pitching Performance

Performance measure Variable(s) entered RZincrement P

Batting average
Step 1 OAE
Step 2 ACSI Rating Form
Batting average
Step 1 OAE
Step 2 ACSI-28
Earned run average
Step 1 OAE
Step 2 ACSI Rating Form
Earned run average
Step 1 OAE
Step 2 ACSI-28

Note. OAE = Overall Average Evaluation measure of physical skills.

 408 / Smith and Christensen

pitching performance, accounting for slightly more than 3% of the ERA variance.
Consequently, the regression analyses involving ERA revealed that individual
differences in psychological skills, whether derived from staff ratings or player
self-report, accounted for most of the attributable variance. In the hierarchical
regression analysisinvolving scores from the coaches' ACSI Rating Form, the
psychological skills accounted for an additional 38% of the ERA variance. The
corresponding analysis using the ACSI-28 subscales revealed an R2 increment
of 34%. Thus, both the coach and player measures of psychological skills ac-
counted for substantial increments in performance variance, and, using the physi-
c a l and psychological measures together, we were able to account for
approximately 40% of the variance in both batting average and ERA.
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Predicting Survival in Baseball

Next, we evaluated the ability of the skills measures to discriminate between
those athletes who were still competing in professional baseball and those whose
careers had ended after 2 and 3 years, respectively. By the end of spring training
1993, 74% of the athletes measured in 1991 remained active in professional
baseball. By the end of spring training, 1994, the percentage of survivors had
decreased to 26%. We conducted discriminant analyses to evaluate the ability
of the physical and psychological skills measures to predict survival over the
two time frames.
The OAE measure proved to be a successful discriminator over both time
periods. At the 2-year mark, use of the discriminant function based on the OAE
measure obtained in 1991 correctly identified 68% of the survivors and 89% of
the nonsurvivors, yielding an overall rate of 73% correct classifications, Wilks's
lambda = .808, p < .001. After 3 years, 59% of the survivors, and 75% of the
nonsurvivors were correctly classified, yielding an overall rate of 71% correct
classifications, Wilks's lambda = 319, p < .001. We also correlated the 1991
performance measures with survival 2 and 3 years later, using point-biserial
correlations. Batting average was significantly related to survival at both the 2-
year (r = .46, p < .01) and 3-year (r = .30, p < .05) periods. In contrast, ERA
did not significantly predict survival at either 2 years (r = -.12) or 3 years (r =
-.13). It thus appears that neither physical ability nor performance measures are
good predictors of future survival for pitchers.
The discriminant function based on the players' ACSI-28 subscale scores
was also significant at the end of 2 years, Wilks's lambda = 315, p < .01. The
function correctly identified 67% of the survivors and 68% of the nonsurvivors,
a correct overall classification rate of 67%. This overall degree of accuracy (67%)
was maintained after 3 years by a discriminant function that correctly classified
60% of the survivors and 69% of the nonsurvivors, Wilks's lambda = 345, p <
.05. However, as in the case of the performance outcomes, the individual subscales
did not relate highly to the outcome variable until they were combined into
a linear equation that maximized separation between survivor groups. Indeed,
inspection of the discriminant functions indicated only one significant subscale
difference in the two analyses: the 2-year survivors reported a lower mean score
on the Coping With Adversity subscale. None of the subscale differences achieved
significance at the 3-year comparison.
The discriminant functions derived from the staff's psychological skill
 Performance and Survival in Baseball / 409

ratings equalled the players' scores in their predictive accuracy, but the individual
subscales were more clearly and positively related to survival. After 2 years, the
discriminant function correctly identified 69% of the survivors and 64% of the
nonsurvivors for an overall accuracy rate of 68%, Wilks's lambda = 356, p <
-05. After 3 years, 68% of the survivors and 66% of the nonsurvivors were
correctly classified for an overall accuracy rate of 66%, Wilks's lambda = .828,
p < .02. Inspection of the discriminant function for the Year 2 results revealed
that the survivors had significantly higher psychological skills ratings on all
scales except Coping With Adversity 0, < .06) and Freedom From Worry @ <
SO). At the 3-year comparison, the survivors had significantly higher scores on
all subscales except Confidence and Achievement Motivation (p < .07) and
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Freedom From Worry (p < SO). Thus, the coach data provided substantially
stronger evidence of differences between survivors and nonsurvivors in specific
psychological skills than did the players' self-reports.
In a final set of discriminant analyses, we included both the physical and
psychological skills measures. When OAE was combined with the ACSI-28
subscale scores, the resulting discriminant functions were highly significant in
both the 2- and 3-year analyses, Wilks's lambdas = .646 and .717, respectively,
p < .001. After 2 years, the function that included the OAE and the players'
ACSI-28 scores correctly identified 74% of the survivors and 80% of the nonsurvi-
vors, for an overall accuracy rate of 76%. After 3 years, the combined data
yielded correct classification of 68% of the survivorsand 79% of the nonsurvivors,
an overall rate of 76%. For the coaches' data combined with the physical skills
measure, an overall classification rate of 73% was obtained after 2 years, with
72% of the survivors and 76% of the nonsurvivors being identified, Wilks's
lambda = .728, p < .001. After 3 years, an overall correct classification rate of
73% was obtained, as the function correctly classified 64% of the survivors and
77% of the nonsurvivors, Wilks's lambda = .724, p < .001.
The practical predictive implications of these findings are not altogether
evident if we consider only the correct classification rate yielded by the discrimi-
nant analyses, because the probability of survival does not remain constant over
time, and after both 2 and 3 years, it departs significantly from a 50% survival
rate. Meehl and Rosen (1955) pointed out that these antecedent probabilities, or
base rates, must be taken into account in order to evaluate the increment in
predictive accuracy that can be achieved by using a prediction measure. In the
case of our data, we know that the antecedent probability (base rate) of a randomly
selected player being a survivor is 74% after 2 years and only 26% after 3 years.
Thus, if we were to simply predict that all players would survive, we would be
correct 74% of the time after 2 years, but correct only 26% of the time after 3
years. The utility of using our physical and psychological skills variables to make
predictions rests on their incremental predictive accuracy over use of the base
rates alone. To evaluate this increment, we need to take into account the base
rates and the percentages of correct classifications and misclassifications. Using
mathematical principles derived from Bayes's theorem, Meehl and Rosen (1955,
p. 206) derived a "hit rate" statistic that indexes the likelihood that a positive
diagnostic assertion (in this case, the statement that a given player will survive
in baseball over a specified time period, given his score on the predictor variable
in question) will be true. The formula for the positive hit rate (H,) is as follows:
 410 / Smith and Christensen

where P = the base rate for survival after 2 or 3 years (i.e., .74 and .26, respec-
tively); Q = 1 - P; p, = the percentage of true positives (i.e., players who are
predicted on the basis of skill scores to be survivors who are indeed survivors);
and p2 = the percentage of false positives (i.e., incorrect predictions of survival
based on the skills scores).
To assess the incremental value of the physical and psychological skills
scores over use of the base rate alone, we calculated the hit rate for the use of
the OAE score, the ACSI-28 subscale scores, and the ACSI coach ratings. For
the 2-year predictions, where an improvement over the 74% base rate survival
score is required for incremental predictive validity, we obtained H p values of
95%, 85%, and 86% for the OAE, ACSI-28, and ACSI coach measures, respec-
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tively, based on the classification data provided by the discriminant analyses.

For the 3rd-year data, an improvement over the 26% survivor base rate figure was
needed. Calculations based on the classificationdata provided by the discriminants
yielded H p values of 45%, 40%, and 41% for OAE, the player psychological
measures, and the coach psychological measures, respectively. These results
indicate increments in correct decisions based on the psychological skills mea-
sures that exceed base rate decisions by margins ranging from 11% to 21%.

Discussion
The results of this study indicate that in this elite athletic population,
psychological skills are relatively independent of physical skills, and both are
significantly related to performance and survival in professional baseball. Al-
though previous research has suggested that psychological skills might be im-
portant predictors of athletic performance, differences in physical skills have not
previously been partialed out of the predictive process. In this study, both self-
report and staff ratings of psychological skills accounted for significant increments
in performance variance when physical skills differences were controlled for in
a hierarchical regression model. For batting performance, the psychological skills
measures accounted independently for as much variance in batting average as
did the physical skills measure of batting ability (approximately 20% each). In
the case of pitching performance, psychological factors greatly outweighed the
contribution of physical factors in predicting ERA over the coming season,
accounting for 34-38% of the variance. Given the relatively narrow range of
physical ability differences in this elite athlete population, the incremental perfor-
mance variance accounted for by psychological skills factors is noteworthy.
Indeed, the total amount of performance variance accounted for by the psychologi-
cal skills measures approximates (for batters) or exceeds (for pitchers) the amount
of academic performance variance typically accounted for by intellectual skill
measures (IQ) in studies of college students (Cattell, 1987).
Although both self-report and staff ratings of psychological skills predicted
performance and survival, the low intercorrelationsbetween the two psychological
skills measures indicate limited convergent validity and suggest that if the self-
report and staff ratings are indeed measuring the same constructs, they are based
on different indicants of the constructs. Such lack of agreement between athlete
and coach measures is not new; Hanson and Gould (1988) have reported an
even lower level of agreement between coach ratings and athlete self-reports of
 Performance and Survival in Baseball / 411

competitive anxiety. This is not totally surprising, because many of the psycholog-
ical processes involved in the skills are internal and therefore are accessible to
observers only indirectly through behavioral expressions from which inferences
can be made. Inferential bases for psychological skills ratings made by staff
members could include the quality of social interactions (which might account
for the high correlations for Coachability), verbal or nonverbal expressions, or
quality of performance. However, our results indicate that coaches are capable
of making evaluations of psychological skills that are relatively independent of
physical skills evaluations.
If quality of performance is one basis for inferring psychological skills, it
might help account for the generally higher correlations between the staff ratings
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and performance measures as compared with the players' measure. There are,
however, several reasons to doubt that inferences derived from previous perfor-
mance account totally for this result. First, we would expect performance-based
inferences to influence player self-perceptions, as well as coach ratings. That is,
players who have performed well in the past might well conclude that they
concentrate well, cope with adversity, and have high confidence, whereas the
opposite might occur for players who have performed poorly. Second, when we
autocorrelated a variety of performance measures over consecutive years in this
sample, we found that stability of performance from year to year never exceeded
+.32, and was typically in the .20s. This is not altogether surprising, particularly
at the lower levels of the minor leagues. In many instances, athletes who perform
well are advanced to a higher level of competition the next season and experience
far less success as a result. The opposite can also occur when a player who has
performed poorly during the previous season is demoted to a lower level where
he can perform well. This factor would certainly work against high correlations
between psychological skills measures that are solely influenced by past perfor-
mance and outcome measures of future performance.
It is also worth noting that the coach and player measures are based on
different modes of measurement, so that method variance may contribute to the
lower-than-expected correlations between the ACSI-28 and the ACSI Rating
Form measures of the same constructs. It would be of considerable interest to
assess relations when scores are derived from the same measure, as was the case
in the Hanson and Gould (1988) study in which coaches and athletes completed
the same state and trait anxiety measures.
Whatever the reasons for the relatively low level of correspondencebetween
self-report and coach ratings of psychological skills, the fact remains that both
sets of measures seem to be tapping processes that are related to future perfor-
mance. What those processes might be cannot be established on the basis of our
data. One obvious conclusion, however, is that the ACSI-28 subscale and total
scores do not relate as clearly to performance as do the corresponding coach
ratings; the predictive power of the ACSI-28 scores is not evident until they are
combined in a weighted linear regression model. Then they predict performance
as well as the similarly combined coach ratings do. Among the individual scales
of the ACSI-28, Confidence and Achievement Motivation was the most consistent
predictor of both batting and pitching performance. Scores on this scale may
constitute a measure of a construct resembling self-efficacy, which has been
shown in many studies to be a strong predictor of domain-specific task perfor-
mance (Bandura, 1986).
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 Performance and Survival in Baseball / 41 3

psychological skills, although more work is needed to assess its psychometric

properties, including test-retest reliability. Our data indicate acceptable interrater
reliability and promising predictive validity. The measure could potentially be
used as a self-report instrument or as a third-party rating form. Administering it
to both athletes and to others who know them well would provide a better
indication than do our results of the extent to which coaches' (or others') assess-
ments of athletes compare with their own self-assessments. The definitional items
we used could easily be adapted to other sports and to female populations by
making minor changes in the instructions and in some of the definitions, most
notably the Goal Setting and Mental Preparation item that contained specific
reference to baseball.
Downloaded by Univ of Massachusetts Lib on 09/16/16, Volume 17, Article Number 4

In conclusion, our results indicate that psychological skills account for

significant amounts of athletic performance variance and that this result occurs
even when physical skill differences are controlled. Needless to say, the 40% of
variance accounted for by the combination of physical and psychological skills
factors, although significant from both statistical and practical perspectives, leaves
a great deal of variance unaccounted for. Undoubtedly, some portion of the
unexplained variance is due to imperfections in the skill measures. Also worth
noting is the fact that in our predictive quest, we are tracking a moving target
that is changing constantly as a result of an instructional program that involves
ongoing technical and psychological skills training (see Smith & Johnson, 1990).
Even though these are elite athletes who do not differ dramatically in levels of
physical ability, it is clear that they exhibit widely varying developmental trajecto-
ries over time. This is clearly shown in the relations between 1991 performance
and survival 2 to 3 years later. Batting average significantly predicted survival
over both periods (though the correlation decreased to .30 in the third year), but
ERA did not. Few pitchers can continue to dominate with physical ability or
"stuff" alone as they move up the competitive ladder. In addition, career-
threatening injuries are far more common among pitchers than among position
players. For pitchers, the continued development of both psychological skills and
pitch command is essential. It might be argued that for pitchers and position
players alike, the most important psychological skills of all involve the ability
to take advantage of the learning opportunities provided by an instructional
program that focuses on both technical and psychological skill development.

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Note
'The alphas for the Confidence and Achievement Motivation and Coachability
subscales (.50 and .59 in this sample) are in the low end of the "adequate" SCk.70
internal consistency range. However, the same average item intercorrelations within these
4-item scales would yield alphas of .71 and .78, respectively, in 10-item scales (Nunnally &
Bemstein, 1994, p. 263). In short scales of this type, the goodness of fit between-the
subscales and the underlying model in a confirmatory factor analysis may be more indica-
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Acknowledgments
Portions of these data were presented at the meeting of the Association for the
Advancement of Applied Sport Psychology, Incline Village, NV, October, 1994. We wish
to thank the players and staff of the Houston Astros for their assistance in this research.

Manuscript submitted: November 15, 1994

Revision received: May 11, 1995