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Worldwide cement
industry trends
Macroeconomic drivers of cement consumption to 2018
ICR Research
CemTech Asia, Manila, June 2016

2 Overview

´Methodology and projections

´Global consumption trends in brief
´Underlying macroeconomic factors
´Focus on Southeast Asia

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3 Methodology

Three factors:
• Urbanisation rate
• Gross fixed capital formation
• Commodity prices

4 Methodology
Three factors:
• Urbanisation rate
• Gross fixed capital formation
• Commodity prices
140 80%

120 78%
Consumption (Mt)

Urbanisation rate

100 76%

80 74%

60 72%

40 70%

20 68%

0 66%
1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Consumption (Mt) Urbanisation rate

South America:
Urbanisation versus consumption

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5 Methodology
Three factors:
• Urbanisation rate
• Gross fixed capital formation
• Commodity prices
60 30%

50 25%
Consumption (Mt)

GFCF (% GDP)
40 20%

30 15%

20 10%

10 5%

0 0%
1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Consumption (Mt) GFCF as proportion of GDP

West Africa:
GFCF versus consumption

6 Methodology
Three factors:
• Urbanisation rate
• Gross fixed capital formation
• Commodity prices
140 0.60 160 9.0

140 8.0
120 0.50
Consumption (Mt)

Consumption (Mt)

7.0
Gold price index

120
Oil price index

100
0.40 6.0
100
80 5.0
0.30 80
60 4.0
60
0.20 3.0
40
40
2.0
20 0.10
20 1.0

0 0.00 0 0.0
1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Consumption Oil price Consumption Gold price

North Africa: North America:

Oil prices versus consumption Gold prices versus consumption

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7 Performance of the model

Evaluation against three

representative markets:
• United States
• China
• Kenya

8 Performance of the model

Evaluation against three representative markets:
• United States
• China
• Kenya
140

120

100
Consumption (Mt)

80

60

40

20

0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

US consumption US forecast

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9 Performance of the model

Evaluation against three representative markets:
• United States
• China
• Kenya
3000

2500
Consumption (Mt)

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018
China consumption China forecast

10 Performance of the model

Evaluation against three representative markets:
• United States
• China
• Kenya
7.0

6.0
Consumption (Mt)

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Kenya consumption Kenya forecast

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11 The world in perspective

Worldwide cement consumption growth, CAGR 2015-18

12 Consumption growth, 2009-18

20%

15%

10%

5%
CAGR

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

2009-12 2012-15 2015-18

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13 Growth projections: High and low

Consumption CAGR 2015-18

High and low forecasts

14 Gross fixed capital formation

33% 3%

31%
2%
Average GFCF as proportion of GDP

29%

27% 1%
Change in GFCF

25%
0%
23%

21% -1%

19%
-2%
17%

15% -3%

2009-12 2012-15 2015-18 Change, 2012-15 to 2015-18

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15 GDP growth
25%

20%

15%
CAGR, 2015-18

10%

5%
N/A
0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

2009-12 2012-15 2015-18

GDP growth, 2009-18
CAGR in current US dollars

16 Urbanisation
90% 2.0%
Urban population as proportion of total

80% 1.8%

70% 1.6%
Change in urbanistation

1.4%
60%
1.2%
50%
1.0%
40%
0.8%
30%
0.6%
20% 0.4%
10% 0.2%

0% 0.0%

2009-12 2012-15 2015-18 Change, 2012-15 to 2015-18

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17 ASEAN ten
2015

Consumption 227Mt

Production 241Mt

Capacity 304Mta

Utilisation 79%

Population 632 million

CCpC 358kg

18 ASEAN ten

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19 Consumption per capita

1200

Singapore, 1065
1000
Consumption per capita, kg, 2015

Brunei, 873
Vietnam, 727
800

Malaysia, 721

600 Laos,
479
Thailand, 447

400
Cambodia,
244
Indonesia,
200
233
Philippines, 242
Myanmar, 155
0
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
GDP per Capita, US$, 2015

20 The Philippines

2015

Consumption 24.4Mt

Production 24.0Mt

Capacity 28.1Mta

Utilisation rate 85%

Population 101 million

CCpC 242kg

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21 The Philippines

22 Indonesia
2015

Consumption 61.0Mt

Production 62.0Mt

Capacity 81.8Mta

Utilisation 75%

Population 258 million

CCpC 233kg

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23 Indonesia

24 Concluding remarks

´Overall expectations
´Demand in Southeast Asia
´Risk factors
´Beyond 2018

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Questions

Contact
David Bowers
d.bowers@cemnet.com
Tel: +44 (0) 1306 740383

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