UPL Company Update - 030520 - Emkay PDF

India Equity Research | Agri Input & Chemicals
May 3, 2020
Company Update
UPL
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Debt reduction on track
CMP: Rs 420 TP: Rs 500 (■) Rating: BUY (■) Upside: 19.0 %
as of (May 3, 2020) 12 months
 UPL reduced net debt by ~USD900mn in Q4FY20. This implies a ~USD500m reduction in Change in Estimates
net debt in FY20, given a rise in debt by ~USD400mn in 9MFY20. UPL refinanced EPS Chg FY20E/FY21E (%) -/-
USD400mn as perpetual debt in Feb’20, which is now excluded from net debt calculations Target Price change (%) NA
and hence, UPL reported USD1.3bn reduction in net debt vs. USD900mn in our model. Target Period (Months) 12
Previous Reco BUY
 Our back of the envelope calculation suggests that UPL’s working capital stood at 108days
as of March’20, above our estimate of 120days. Given liquidity challenges that could Emkay vs Consensus
emerge due to Covid-19, we maintain our conservative WC assumption of 120days for EPS Estimates
FY21/22. FY20E FY21E
Emkay 32.9 34.0
 We believe that with global agri acreages up 2-4% across geographies, demand for agri-
Consensus 40.5 48.7
inputs should remain resilient. This is corroborated by strong revenue performance of
Mean Consensus TP (12M) Rs 582
global peers in Q1CY20 (Bayer AG: +6.1% yoy, BASF SE: +6.4% yoy).
Stock Details
 Merger synergies are on track. Our EBITDA margin estimates of 22.1%/22.5% for FY21/22
Bloomberg Code UPLL IN
are conservative, considering 466bps improvement in Q3FY20 EBITDA at 23.7%. We
Face Value (Rs) 2
maintain Buy, with a TP of Rs500 (based on 7x FY22E EV/EBITDA) and OW in our EAP.
Shares outstanding (mn) 764
52 Week H/L 709 / 240
Commentary from global peers points to resilient demand M Cap (Rs bn/USD bn) 321 / 4.27
UPL’s global peers (Bayer AG, BASF AG and ADAMA) have indicated that demand for agro Daily Avg Volume (nos.) 4,957,072
chemicals is intact despite Covid-19-related challenges. Q1CY20 results for Bayer (+6.1% Daily Avg Turnover (US$ mn) 28.1
yoy) and BASF (+6.4% yoy) point to a resilient demand environment.
Shareholding Pattern Dec '19
Gross debt flat yoy, net debt declines Promoters 27.9%
UPL’s gross debt was flat at ~USD4.2bn in FY20 but net debt declined by ~USD500mn to FIIs 43.5%
USD3.3bn. UPL has USD875m in cash. We believe that with a possible threat to liquidity due DIIs 11.1%
to Covid-19-related disruptions, UPL will not prepay its gross debt. Hence, we increase our Public and Others 17.5%
gross debt assumption for FY21 but our net debt assumption remains unchanged. We Price Performance
marginally decrease our FY20/21/22E EPS by 4%/2%/2%, primarily due to a rise in interest
(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M
cost, offset partially by higher other income on the higher cash balance. UPL has USD500mn
Absolute 29 (20) (30) (35)
bonds due for repayment in Oct’21 and hence, UPL will not prepay gross debt in FY21.
Rel. to Nifty 12 (3) (15) (23)
Possible rating upgrade in FY22?
Relative price chart
As per Moody’s rating rationale, it could upgrade UPL’s credit rating if leverage below 2.5x
700 Rs % 10
net debt/EBITDA on a sustained basis. Our estimate of adj. net debt/EBITDA of 2x for FY22
610 0
could possibly trigger a rating upgrade in FY22. (Refer to exhibit 11 & 12 on page 6)
520 -10
Key risks are: Adverse weather, regulatory risk, supply-chain disruptions and forex.
430 -20
Please see our sector model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): Agri Input & Chemicals (Page 12)
340 -30
250 -40
Financial Snapshot (Consolidated) May-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19Feb-20 Apr-20
UPL (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS)
(Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Source: Bloomberg
Net Sales 173,780 218,370 337,134 356,883 382,745
This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The
EBITDA 35,050 42,550 69,051 78,788 85,998 following person(s) are responsible for the
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.2 19.5 20.5 22.1 22.5 production of the recommendation:
APAT 20,850 26,050 25,142 26,000 31,331 Varshit Shah

EPS (Rs) 27.3 34.1 32.9 34.0 41.0 varshit.shah@emkayglobal.com
EPS (% chg) 14.2 24.9 (3.5) 3.4 20.5 +91 22 6612 1358
ROE (%) 25.2 21.9 16.6 15.6 16.6
P/E (x) 15.4 12.3 12.8 12.4 10.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.2 13.7 8.0 6.8 5.9
P/BV (x) 3.5 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.6
Source: Company, Emkay Research
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited
Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.
UPL (UPLL IN) India Equity Research | Company Update
Story in Charts
Exhibit 1: Increase in gross debt (Rs bn) assumption….. Exhibit 2: …..but net debt (Rs bn) estimate remains same
299 299
269 242 231
260 218 218
239
209 189 190
FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E
Gross Debt (Old estimate) Gross Debt (New estimate) Net Debt (Old estimate) Net Debt (New estimate)
Source: Company, Emkay Research Source: Company, Emkay Research
Exhibit 3: Release of FY20E OCF in Q4
316
309
299
297
292
292
289
270
263
231
84
84
74
71
64
47
4QFY20E
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
Gross Debt (Rsb) Net Debt (Rsb)
Exhibit 4: Net debt/EBITDA below 2.5x could trigger rating upgrade in 2021
3.3 3.1
2.8 2.6
2.2 2.0
FY20E FY21E FY22E
Net Debt/EBITDA (x) Adj. Net Debt/EBITDA (x)
Source: Emkay Research Estimates, *Adj. Net debt includes 50% of perpetual bonds as Debt
Exhibit 5: Moody’s rating upgrade/downgrade triggers

Triggers for Upgrade Triggers for Downgrade
Net debt/EBITDA below 2.5x Net debt/EBITDA above 3.5x
EBITDA margins at higher end of 22-25% EBITDA margins fall below 18% on a sustainable basis
Consistent FCF generation Any large debt funded acquisitions
Source: Moody's Investors Service, Emkay Research
May 3, 2020 | 2
Global planting data points towards resilient agri demand

Global planting estimates by the USDA point to robust agricultural activity. The USDA’s latest
April estimates indicate that, with the exception of Wheat and soybean in USA, all geographies
have reported an increase in acreages in major crops of the region.
Exhibit 6: Robust planting driving agri-inputs

(Mn 2020 estimates Growth
Hectares) Crop 2018 2019
March April yoy %
Comments
Wheat 15.2 16.0 15.0 15.0 -6% Sowing start

Rice 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 -15% Not significant
USA Soybean 36.2 35.5 30.4 30.4 -14% Sowing start
Corn 33.5 32.9 33.0 33.0 0% Sowing start
Cotton 4.5 4.1 4.8 4.8 16% Sowing start
Wheat 26.2 25.6 26.1 26.1 2% Already sowed, harvesting to start in June
Rice 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2% Not significant
EU Soybean 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -2% Not significant
Corn 8.3 8.3 8.7 8.9 7% Sowing done in March, harvesting to start in September
Cottonseed 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 13% Not significant
Wheat 24.5 24.3 23.7 23.7 -2% Sowing start
Rice 30.8 30.2 29.7 29.7 -2% Sowing start
China Soybean 8.3 8.4 9.3 9.3 11% Sowing start
Corn 42.4 43.1 41.3 41.3 -4% Sowing start
Cotton 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 -1% crop already harvested in Feb
Wheat 30.8 29.7 29.3 29.3 -1% Sowing to start in June
Rice 43.8 43.8 44.0 44.0 0% Sowing to start in end of May and June
India
Corn 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.3 0% Sowing to start in June
Cotton 12.6 12.6 13.0 13.0 3% Sowing to start in April
Wheat 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 0% Not significant
Rice 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 -1% Not significant
Brazil Soybean 35.2 35.9 36.9 36.9 3% sowing to begin in September
Corn 16.6 17.5 18.1 18.1 3% 1st crop harvested in Jan/Feb, 2nd crop sown in Feb, to be harvested in June/July
Cotton 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.7 4% sown in March-April, Harvesting in September
Wheat 27.4 26.3 27.3 27.3 4% Already sowed, harvesting to start in May
Russia Soybean 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 1% Not significant
Source: IPAD /FAS/U SDA

Corn 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.5 5% Not significant
May 3, 2020 | 3
Commentary from Global peers

Key takeaways from global peer results for Q1CY20 (Bayer, BASF and ADAMA):
 Global agricultural planting is intact and hence, demand for Agri inputs remains resilient.
 Robust demand in US, EU, LatAm, China, India and Australia.
 Pricing in LatAm is largely in USD and local currency prices are adjusted for movement in
currencies.
 Channel inventory in Brazil is lower yoy due to strong season and this sets the stage for
H2CY20 season.
 EBITDA margins have improved yoy due to reduction in opex.
 Receivables cycle is normal across US, EU and LatAm; no expectation of increase in
working capital days.
 Increase in the sale of herbicides in EU due to restriction on labor movement.
Excerpts from Q1CY20 earnings call of Bayer (Germany) (Not covered)

Commentary on sharp depreciation of currencies:
“In essence, what we try and do is link pricing as far as possible to the US dollar, classical
example here is particularly Crop Protection, we have to price inter RAI an invoice RAI, but we
basically constantly update the pricing lists whenever there is a significant move in the currency
markets. So this is one key method for us to try and mitigate risk and in Argentina our functional
currency is actually US dollar. So there we kind of how to have a natural hedge built in, we've
built up a substantial portion of our business to tie it to barter and so that we have another
additional hedge in here.” - Liam Condon, President Crop Science Division
Commentary on inventory levels in Brazil and receivables:

“So from everything that we can see as of up until today, channel inventories from our side look
quite positive in Brazil, we're not flagging any issues, so we don't have any big overhangs from
the last season, and we'll be going into cell and then in the middle of the year for starting taking
more orders and preparing for the new season later on in the year. But right now, we're not
seeing any, let's say, reasons for concern and at the end of the day, with the strong dollar for
those export-oriented farmers, they can still actually make good money in Brazil, so also our
accounts receivable are pretty healthy right now, everything we can see so far. So I think we've
got enough mitigation measures in place and are tracking this extremely closely as the overall
situation develops.” - Liam Condon, President Crop Science Division
Excerpts from Q1CY20 earnings call of BASF (Germany) (Not covered)

Commentary on supply chain:
“Are we facing, yes, any type of supply chain issues that have an impact on the business? No,
we don't. We are watching the situation there very closely. There's here and there a little bit of
firefighting that needs to happen, yes, but that's true for the other businesses too, so actually no
major concerns there at this point in time.” - Hans-Ulrich Engel, Chief Financial Officer
Commentary on channel inventory levels:

“Yes, sales channels, channel inventories actually, yes, I'll start with South America, because
that's end of the season there, and based on everything that we can see, the ending inventories
there in the channels at a comparatively low level, which would be a good basis for solid business
than in the second half of the year.
Yes, in the season in South America, sales or distribution channels in North America, you may
recall that as we said last year around this time that we are getting basically a double whammy,
because two things were happening: one awful dreadful weather conditions, which had a
significant impact on our business as also on the businesses of our competitors. But then also
something that we saw was that distributors were cleaning up their inventory significantly, which
led to an overall good situation now in Q1. And it doesn't look to us like channels are being filled.
And the inventory situation in Europe based on what the guys in Ag solutions told me yesterday.
It looks relatively normal, but we're in the midst of the season here. There's always the concern
about drought, today it's raining in Ludwigshafen, not only in Ludwigshafen. So let's see how all
of that develops.” - Hans-Ulrich Engel, Chief Financial Officer
May 3, 2020 | 4
Priority to preserve liquidity to limit gross debt pre-

payment in FY21
UPL gross debt remained flat for FY20 at ~USD4.2bn. However, net debt declined by
~USD500mn to USD3.3bn in FY20. UPL has cash of USD875mn. We believe that with the threat
to liquidity due to Covid-19-related disruptions, UPL will not prepay its gross debt. Hence, we
increase our gross debt assumption for FY21 but our net debt assumptions remain same.
We marginally decrease our FY20/21/22E EPS by 4%/2%/2% primarily due to a rise in interest
cost, offset partially by higher other income on higher cash balance.
Exhibit 7: Gross debt (Rs bn) to remain flat in FY21E Exhibit 8: Net debt (Rs bn) to improve over FY21-22E
299 299
269 242 231
260 218 218
239
209 189 190
FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E
Gross Debt (Old estimate) Gross Debt (New estimate) Net Debt (Old estimate) Net Debt (New estimate)
Source: Company, Emkay Research Source: Company, Emkay Research
Exhibit 9: Net debt to decline gradually
299
299
289
260
260
231
218
190
65
61
48
36
36
32
29
28
18
18
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Net debt should increase in 9MFY21 due to seasonality in business and decline in Q4
Due to seasonality in the business, working capital increases in the first nine months and the
same is released in Q4 along with operating cash flow. Hence, net debt should rise qoq in
9MFY21 and decline in Q4FY21. Hence, we have maintained our gross debt assumptions as
UPL would use cash balance (USD875mn) to cater to increase in working capital on account of
seasonality and growth.
Exhibit 10: Release of OCF in Q4

316
309
299
297
292
292
289
270
263
231
84
84
74
71
64
47
4QFY20E
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
May 3, 2020 | 5
Possible rating upgrade in FY22?

In Feb’20, UPL issued USD400mn perpetual bonds at a 5.25% interest rate to refinance existing
debt. Rating agency Moody’s has assigned Baa3 rating to UPL, with stable outlook. As per
Moody's Hybrid Equity Credit methodology, perpetual bonds are considered under debt to the
extent of 50% for calculation of leverage.
As per Moody’s rating rationale, it could upgrade UPL’s credit rating under following situations:
1) leverage below 2.5x net debt/EBITDA on a sustained basis, 2) EBITDA margins at the higher
end of 22-25%, and 3) consistent FCF generation – all on a sustained basis. Our conservative
revenue, EBITDA margin and working capital assumptions indicate that UPL’s net debt/EBITDA
should decline to 2.2x by Mar-22.
However, if we incorporate the benefit of perpetual bonds in our calculations, UPL’s net
debt/EBITDA could fall to 2.6x/2.0x for FY21/22E vs. 2.8/2.2x. This could trigger a rating
upgrade. Also, our EBITDA margin assumptions at 22.1%/22.5% for FY21/22E are conservative
given that UPL has already delivered 23.7% margin on Q3FY20 on the back of merger synergies
(mainly reduction in employee costs). Our working capital assumption of 120days for FY21/22 is
also conservative, considering 108days in FY20E despite Covid-19-related disruptions.
Therefore, we believe that there is a possibility of rating upgrade for UPL in FY22.
Exhibit 11: Net debt/EBITDA below 2.5x can trigger rating upgrade
3.3 3.1
2.8 2.6
2.2 2.0
FY20E FY21E FY22E
Net Debt/EBITDA (x) Adj. Net Debt/EBITDA (x)
Source: Emkay Research Estimates, *Adj. Net debt includes 50% of perpetual bonds as Debt
Exhibit 12: Moody’s rating upgrade/downgrade triggers

Triggers for Upgrade Triggers for Downgrade
Net Debt/EBITDA below 2.5x Net Debt/EBITDA above 3.5x
EBITDA margins at higher end of 22-25% EBITDA margins falls below 18% on a sustainable basis
Consistent FCF generation Any large debt funded acquisitions
Source: Moody's Investors Service, Emkay Research
May 3, 2020 | 6
Exhibit 13: Changes in estimates

FY20E FY21E FY22E
All fig in Rs mn (except % and EPS)
Old New % change Old New % change Old New % change
Revenues 337,134 337,134 0% 356,883 356,883 0% 382,745 382,745 0%
EBITDA 69,051 69,051 0% 78,788 78,788 0% 85,998 85,998 0%
EBITDA margins, % 20.5% 20.5% 0 bps 22.1% 22.1% 0 bps 22.5% 22.5% 0 bps
Net profits 14,678 14,072 -4% 26,536 26,000 -2% 31,848 31,331 -2%
EPS 19.2 18.4 -4% 34.7 34.0 -2% 41.6 41.0 -2%
Exhibit 14: Key assumptions

Revenue growth % FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E* FY21E FY22E
North America 15.6 10.6 6.8 12.8 42.0 4.0 6.0
Latin America 25.4 26.3 5.5 24.9 90.0 8.0 8.0
Europe -5.3 11.6 7.3 16.5 80.0 1.0 6.0
India 2.8 9.9 7.6 3.5 16.5 10.0 8.0
ROW 43.6 14.8 6.6 5.9 100.0 4.0 7.0
Total revenue growth 16.2 16.1 6.5 14.3 69.7 5.9 7.2
Source: Company, Emkay Research,*consolidation of Arysta acquisition from feb-19
Exhibit 15: Rolling 1-yr fwd EV/EBITDA chart Exhibit 16: Exhibit 54: Rolling 1-yr fwd P/E chart
18
22
14 19
16
10
13
6 10
7
2
4
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-13
Apr-12
Oct-12
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-15
Apr-14
Oct-14
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
1 yr fwd EV/EBITDA Mean
1 yr fwd P/E Mean
Mean - Std Dev Mean + Std Dev
Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev
Source: Company, Emkay Research, Bloomberg

Source: Company, Emkay Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 17: Target price calculation

Particulars
5-yr Avg. EV/EBITDA multiple (x) 10.4
Target EV/EBITDA multiple (x) 7.0
Target EV (Rs mn) 600,265
Less: FY21E Net Debt (Rs mn) 218,035
Target Mcap (Rs mn) 382,230
No. of Shares (nos) 765
TP (Rs) 500
May 3, 2020 | 7
Exhibit 18: Peer comparison table

Mcap P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%)
Company
(USD mn) FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E
Corteva Inc 19,099 20.6 19.4 16.1 10.4 7.9 7.1 3.5 4.0 4.8
Bayer AG 64,910 9.4 8.6 7.6 8.2 7.3 6.5 13.1 10.4 11.4
BASF SE 47,317 12.2 16.5 12.5 7.4 7.7 6.8 11.2 4.8 7.5
FMC Corp 11,639 15.3 14.2 12.3 12.0 11.5 10.4 27.3 29.8 33.9
Nufarm Ltd/Australia 1,261 24.2 NM 22.9 8.8 7.7 6.5 5.0 0.4 3.6
Global Avg. 16.3 14.7 14.3 9.3 8.4 7.5 12.0 9.9 12.2
PI Industries Ltd* 2,894 44.6 32.6 26.2 30.5 21.7 17.3 19.6 22.4 22.5
Bayer CropScience Ltd/India 2,547 38.5 32.7 27.7 29.8 24.7 20.9 21.8 22.1 21.8
Sharda Cropchem Ltd 174 11.2 8.1 6.6 3.9 2.9 8.6 11.3 11.9
Rallis India Ltd* 548 21.6 20.6 17.7 14.4 13.7 11.5 14.7 14.4 14.9
Dhanuka Agritech Ltd* 280 16.6 15.5 13.9 11.7 10.6 8.9 19.1 19.2 18.6
Sumitomo Chemical India Ltd 1,600 57.9 45.9 36.0 NA NA NA 18.0 20.4 22.2
Domestic Avg. 31.7 25.9 21.3 18.0 14.7 14.7 17.0 18.3 18.6
UPL* 4,230 12.8 12.4 10.3 8.0 6.8 5.9 16.6 15.6 16.6
Source: Bloomberg Estimates, *Emkay Research Estimates
May 3, 2020 | 8
Key Financials (Consolidated)

Income Statement
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Net Sales 173,780 218,370 337,134 356,883 382,745
Expenditure 138,730 175,820 268,083 278,095 296,747
EBITDA 35,050 42,550 69,051 78,788 85,998
Depreciation 6,750 8,670 17,516 23,083 24,270
EBIT 28,300 33,880 51,534 55,705 61,728
Other Income 4,140 2,400 1,100 2,046 2,857
Interest expenses 7,830 9,630 18,237 18,835 17,646
PBT 24,610 26,650 34,398 38,916 46,939
Tax 2,750 20 6,536 7,783 9,388
Extraordinary Items 630 11,580 11,070 0 0
Minority Int./Income from Assoc. 80 720 2,870 5,303 6,390
Reported Net Income 20,220 14,470 14,072 26,000 31,331
Adjusted PAT 20,850 26,050 25,142 26,000 31,331
Balance Sheet
Equity share capital 1,020 1,020 1,530 1,530 1,530
Reserves & surplus 90,670 145,430 154,402 175,047 200,258
Net worth 91,690 146,450 155,932 176,577 201,788
Minority Interest 190 33,580 36,450 41,753 48,143
Loan Funds 65,070 288,610 298,610 298,610 259,610
Net deferred tax liability (6,050) 19,940 17,492 17,221 16,867
Total Liabilities 150,900 488,580 508,484 534,161 526,408
Net block 44,570 319,270 320,754 317,171 312,401
Investment 10,340 7,080 7,080 7,080 7,080
Current Assets 154,830 270,860 296,750 333,855 341,147
Cash & bank balance 28,940 28,510 67,644 80,575 69,515
Other Current Assets 16,960 29,420 35,099 37,155 39,847
Current liabilities & Provision 72,030 126,460 133,930 141,775 152,049
Net current assets 82,800 144,400 162,820 192,080 189,097
Misc. exp 0 0 0 0 0
Total Assets 150,900 488,580 508,484 534,161 526,408
Cash Flow
PBT (Ex-Other income) (NI+Dep) 20,470 24,250 33,298 36,870 44,082
Other Non-Cash items 0 0 0 0 0
Chg in working cap (6,790) (36,040) 18,265 (16,599) (8,432)
Operating Cashflow 28,390 23,560 75,610 54,406 68,178
Capital expenditure (17,020) (341,700) (19,000) (19,500) (19,500)
Free Cash Flow 11,370 (318,140) 56,610 34,906 48,678
Investments (6,560) 3,260 0 0 0
Other Investing Cash Flow (1,499) 16,360 (5,750) 170 170
Investing Cashflow (20,939) (319,680) (23,650) (17,284) (16,473)
Equity Capital Raised 10 0 510 0 0
Loans Taken / (Repaid) 4,490 223,540 10,000 0 (39,000)
Dividend paid (incl tax) (2,120) (3,575) (4,070) (4,590) (5,355)
Other Financing Cash Flow (2,211) 74,986 (1,030) (765) (765)
Financing Cashflow (7,661) 285,321 (12,827) (24,190) (62,766)
Net chg in cash (210) (10,800) 39,134 12,932 (11,061)
Opening cash position 28,800 39,060 28,010 67,144 80,075
Closing cash position 28,940 28,510 67,644 80,575 69,515
May 3, 2020 | 9
Key Ratios
Profitability (%) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
EBITDA Margin 20.2 19.5 20.5 22.1 22.5
EBIT Margin 16.3 15.5 15.3 15.6 16.1
Effective Tax Rate 11.2 0.1 19.0 20.0 20.0
Net Margin 12.6 12.2 8.3 8.7 9.8
ROCE 23.2 11.3 10.6 11.1 12.2
ROE 25.2 21.9 16.6 15.6 16.6
RoIC 30.4 12.7 12.1 13.2 14.3
Per Share Data (Rs) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

EPS 27.3 34.1 32.9 34.0 41.0
CEPS 36.1 45.4 55.8 64.2 72.7
BVPS 119.9 191.4 203.8 230.8 263.8
DPS 2.8 4.7 5.3 6.0 7.0
Valuations (x) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

PER 15.4 12.3 12.8 12.4 10.3
P/CEPS 10.1 8.0 6.5 5.7 5.0
P/BV 3.5 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.6
EV / Sales 2.1 2.7 1.6 1.5 1.3
EV / EBITDA 10.2 13.7 8.0 6.8 5.9
Dividend Yield (%) 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7
Gearing Ratio (x) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Net Debt/ Equity 0.4 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9
Net Debt/EBIDTA 1.0 6.1 3.3 2.8 2.2
Working Cap Cycle (days) 113.1 193.7 103.0 114.0 114.0
Growth (%) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Revenue 6.5 25.7 54.4 5.9 7.2
EBITDA 17.4 21.4 62.3 14.1 9.2
EBIT 22.4 19.7 52.1 8.1 10.8
PAT 17.1 (28.4) (2.7) 84.8 20.5
Quarterly (Rs mn) Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20

Revenue 49,210 85,250 79,060 78,170 88,920
EBITDA 9,380 17,330 16,520 14,490 21,090
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.1 20.3 20.9 18.5 23.7
PAT 4,610 2,060 1,780 890 7,010
EPS (Rs) 6.0 2.7 2.3 1.2 9.2
Shareholding Pattern (%) Mar-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Dec-19

Promoters 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9
FIIs 42.8 42.9 43.1 43.8 43.5
DIIs 9.1 9.6 9.6 10.6 11.1
Public and Others 20.3 19.6 19.5 17.7 17.5
Source: Capitaline
May 3, 2020| 10
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE RECOMMENDATION HISTORY CHART

Closing Period
Date TP Rating Analyst BUY Hold Sell
Price (months) Accumulate Reduce Price
Target Price
20-Apr-20 355 500 12m Buy Amar Mourya 750
20-May-19 679 742 12m Buy Amar Mourya
650
04-Feb-19 514 600 12m Buy Amar Mourya
550
11-Jan-19 522 483 12m Buy Amar Mourya
450
26-Oct-18 415 483 12m Buy Amar Mourya
31-Jul-18 429 493 12m Buy Pratik Tholiya 350
23-Jul-18 421 493 12m Buy Pratik Tholiya 250
29-Apr-19
25-Apr-20
02-Nov-17
05-May-17
02-May-18
30-Oct-18
27-Oct-19
30-Apr-18 487 615 12m Buy Pratik Tholiya
29-Jan-18 526 665 12m Buy Pratik Tholiya
30-Oct-17 550 603 12m Accumulate Sumant Kumar Source: Bloomberg, Company, Emkay Research
31-Jul-17 585 629 12m Accumulate Sumant Kumar
May 3, 2020| 11
Emkay Alpha Portfolio – Agri Input & Chemicals

EAP sector portfolio
BSE200 EAP OW/UW OW/UW EAP Weight
Company Name
Weight Weight (%) (bps) (Normalised)
Agri Input & Chemicals 0.84 0.84 0% 0 100.00
Bayer CropScience* 0.12 0.12 0% 0 14.39
Chambal Fertilisers* 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00
Coromandel International 0.13 0.10 -19% -2 12.22
DCM Shriram* 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00
Deepak Fertilisers* 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00
Dhanuka Agritech 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00
GSFC* 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00
Insecticides India* 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00
PI Industries 0.20 0.20 0% 0 23.88
Rallis India 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00
Sharda Cropchem* 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00
Sterling Tools 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00
Analyst: Varshit Shah UPL* 0.39 0.41 6% 2 49.51
Contact Details Cash 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00
varshit.shah@emkayglobal.com Source: Emkay Research
+91 22 6612 1358 * Not under coverage: Equal Weight

Sector
 High Conviction/Strong Over Weight  High Conviction/Strong Under Weight
Agro-Chemicals and Fertilizers
Analyst bio Sector portfolio NAV
Varshit Shah is a Chartered Accountant Base Latest
and a commerce graduate from Narsee 1-Apr-19 30-Jul-19 1-Nov-19 30-Jan-20 31-Mar-20 30-Apr-20
Monjee College of Commerce and EAP - Agri Input & Chemicals 100.0 91.1 97.9 100.2 70.1 88.9
Economics, Mumbai. He comes with total BSE200 Neutral Weighted Portfolio (ETF) 100.0 89.9 97.1 98.5 68.3 86.4
eight years of experience across sectors *Performance measurement base date 1st April 2019
such as Chemicals, Education, Telecom, Source: Emkay Research
IT and Midcaps. His team currently
NAV chart
covers 12 stocks in Agro Chemicals,
Fertilizers and Midcaps. NAV
110
99
88
77
66
55
Apr-19 May-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 Apr-20
EAP - Agri Input & Chemicals BSE200 Neutral Weighted Portfolio (ETF)
Source: Emkay Research
Please see our model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): SMID
Please see our model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): Nifty
“Emkay Alpha Portfolio – SMID and Nifty are a supporting document to the Emkay Alpha
Portfolios Report and is updated on regular intervals”
May 3, 2020| 12
Emkay Rating Distribution

Ratings Expected Return within the next 12-18 months.
BUY Over 15%
HOLD Between -5% to 15%
SELL Below -5%
Completed Date: 04 May 2020 00:19:48 (SGT)

Dissemination Date: 04 May 2020 00:20:48 (SGT)
Sources for all charts and tables are Emkay Research unless otherwise specified.
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India Equity Research | Agri Input & Chemicals

Debt reduction on track

APAT 20,850 26,050 25,142 26,000 31,331 Varshit Shah

FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E

Source: Company, Emkay Research Source: Company, Emkay Research

Exhibit 3: Release of FY20E OCF in Q4

Source: Company, Emkay Research

FY20E FY21E FY22E

Net Debt/EBITDA (x) Adj. Net Debt/EBITDA (x)

Exhibit 5: Moody’s rating upgrade/downgrade triggers

Global planting data points towards resilient agri demand

Exhibit 6: Robust planting driving agri-inputs

Wheat 15.2 16.0 15.0 15.0 -6% Sowing start

Source: IPAD /FAS/U SDA

Commentary from Global peers

Excerpts from Q1CY20 earnings call of Bayer (Germany) (Not covered)

Commentary on inventory levels in Brazil and receivables:

Excerpts from Q1CY20 earnings call of BASF (Germany) (Not covered)

Commentary on channel inventory levels:

Priority to preserve liquidity to limit gross debt pre-

FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E

Source: Company, Emkay Research Source: Company, Emkay Research

Exhibit 9: Net debt to decline gradually

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Gross Debt (Rsb) Net Debt (Rsb)

Source: Company, Emkay Research

Exhibit 10: Release of OCF in Q4

Gross Debt (Rsb) Net Debt (Rsb)

Source: Company, Emkay Research

Possible rating upgrade in FY22?

FY20E FY21E FY22E

Net Debt/EBITDA (x) Adj. Net Debt/EBITDA (x)

Exhibit 12: Moody’s rating upgrade/downgrade triggers

Exhibit 13: Changes in estimates

Exhibit 14: Key assumptions

Source: Company, Emkay Research, Bloomberg

Exhibit 17: Target price calculation

Exhibit 18: Peer comparison table

Key Financials (Consolidated)

Per Share Data (Rs) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Valuations (x) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Gearing Ratio (x) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Growth (%) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Quarterly (Rs mn) Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20

Shareholding Pattern (%) Mar-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Dec-19

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE RECOMMENDATION HISTORY CHART

23-Jul-18 421 493 12m Buy Pratik Tholiya 250

Emkay Alpha Portfolio – Agri Input & Chemicals

+91 22 6612 1358 * Not under coverage: Equal Weight

Please see our model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): SMID

Please see our model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): Nifty

Emkay Rating Distribution

Completed Date: 04 May 2020 00:19:48 (SGT)

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER BY EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED (EGFSL):

ANALYST CERTIFICATION BY EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED (EGFSL)

COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES BY EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED (EGFSL):

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

Digitally signed by SUNIL TIRUMALAI SUDERSHAN