The COVID – 19 V/S Labour Day Trade-off

Several rating agencies and multilateral institutions have revised their forecasts for global
growth and countries to factor in the economic fallout of COVID-19 the once-in-a-century
pandemic. In the case of India, the most pessimistic projection pegs the growth in the current
year to about 2%, while the optimists maintain it will top 4%.

Labour Day began in the city of Chicago as a protest campaign to support the eight-hour
workday over 15 hours per day of work. On May 1, 1886, workers united in the streets of the
United States to protest for the eight-hour work shift. In India, however, Labour Day or May
Day was first celebrated in 1923. The Labour Kisan Party had organised the May Day
celebrations in Chennai (then Madras). Party leader Singaravelu Chettiar made arrangements
to celebrate May Day in two places in 1923. One meeting was held at the beach opposite to
the Madras High Court, and the other one was held at the Triplicane beach.

Yet, it was the unintended but inevitable consequences that have caught everyone off guard.
The hardships endured by the nearly 360 million self-employed (who are primarily in the
informal sector) and casual workers, and their families in India are already becoming
unbearable. The finance minister has announced relief measures of over $20 billion. Timely
and comprehensive disbursement of these benefits may provide temporary relief.

The real plight, however, is that of around 140 million migrant workers, of whom over 50
million travelled to urban centres in search of economic opportunities. Together with their
families, migrants account for over 450 million people, according to a 2017 report of the
Working Group on Migration. This flight is being reversed now, as many get evicted from
homes with no notice and have to walk miles on foot with family in tow, to reach back home.
Anecdotes from those migrating back suggest that the current shock will create lasting
reluctance on people to come back to cities. The toll on livelihoods is going to be massive,
giving rise to an equally virulent and painful crisis.

About 61% of the global workforce, which is equivalent to more than 2 billion people,
doesn't have any social protection or safety net. Among the workers, about 1.25 billion
(37.5%) are the ones who work in the sectors such as food & accommodations, retail &
wholesale, business services, construction, and manufacturing. These sectors are expected to
take the hit of this economic crisis, which is considered the world's worst since the Great
Depression of the 1930s, thereby putting the concerned workers at very high job-related risk.

There are about 950 centrally sponsored schemes targeting the needy in specific areas. There
is no reliable, updated income data to identify the bottom 20 per cent in the income graph. On
the other hand, the government too is not far behind in competitive populism. It wants to give
some kind of package or support stimulus. All these have nothing to do with job creation; at
best, these can be some sort of consumption drivers.

In the first week of April, the rate was recorded at 7.9 per cent, in the second week at 8.1 per
cent and the third at 8.4 per cent, the economy watchdog said citing the findings of its
household survey. In February this year, a Business Standard report had said that the National
Sample Survey Office (NSSO) which conducts household surveys on employment situation
wasn't permitted to release job data that showed the country's unemployment rate at a 45-
year-high of 6.1 per cent in 2017-18.

Thus, the 1st May next month will not be a regular labour day and would be riddled with lots
of questions on the internet . The pandemic has made us question even the baseline essential
of life as food, shelter and social comfort. The situation can be tackled by only taking swift
measures but at the same time not discarding or leaving out any section of the society. May
this labour day bring some relief for the sections that are most affected by the COVID-19
pandemic.