Use mechanical method

-120000

0.5 Try electronic method

Awarded contract
2 -50000
250000 90000

Prepare proposal
Try magnetic method
-50000 20000
-80000

1 0.5
20000 Not awarded contract

0 -50000

Do not prepare proposal

0 0
se mechanical method
80000
80000

0.5
Electronic success
150000
y electronic method 0 150000

90000 0.5
Electronic failure
30000
-120000 30000

0.7
Magnetic success
120000
y magnetic method 0 120000

84000 0.3
Magnetic failure
0
-120000 0

-50000

0
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS
0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D 2
1 0 0 E 2
2 0 0 T 0
3 1 D 3
4 1 T 0
5 0 3 T 0
6 0 3 E 2
7 0 3 E 2
8 6 T 0
9 6 T 0
10 7 T 0
11 7 T 0
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col
1 2 0 0 0 25 1
3 4 0 0 0 18 5
0 0 0 0 0 32 5
5 6 7 0 0 10 9
0 0 0 0 0 27 9
0 0 0 0 0 2 13
8 9 0 0 0 9 13
10 11 0 0 0 19 13
0 0 0 0 0 7 17
0 0 0 0 0 12 17
0 0 0 0 0 17 17
0 0 0 0 0 22 17
Mark
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
 Use mechanical method

-$120,000

0.5 Try electronic method

Awarded contract
2 -$50,000
$250,000 $90,000

Prepare proposal
Try magnetic method
-$50,000 $20,000
-$80,000

1 0.5
$20,000 Not awarded contract

$0 -$50,000

Do not prepare proposal

$0 $0
e mechanical method
$80,000
$80,000

0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
electronic method $0 $150,000

$90,000 0.5
Electronic failure
$30,000
-$120,000 $30,000

0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
magnetic method $0 $120,000

$84,000 0.3
Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0

-$50,000

$0
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS
0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D 2
1 0 0 E 2
2 0 0 T 0
3 1 D 3
4 1 T 0
5 0 3 T 0
6 0 3 E 2
7 0 3 E 2
8 6 T 0
9 6 T 0
10 7 T 0
11 7 T 0
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col
1 2 0 0 0 25 1
3 4 0 0 0 18 5
0 0 0 0 0 32 5
5 6 7 0 0 10 9
0 0 0 0 0 27 9
0 0 0 0 0 2 13
8 9 0 0 0 9 13
10 11 0 0 0 19 13
0 0 0 0 0 7 17
0 0 0 0 0 12 17
0 0 0 0 0 17 17
0 0 0 0 0 22 17
Mark
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
 Use mechanical method

-$120,000

0.5 Try electronic method

Awarded contract
2 -$50,000
$250,000

Prepare proposal
Try magnetic method
-$50,000
-$80,000

1 0.5
Not awarded contract

$0

Do not prepare proposal

$0
se mechanical method
$80,000

0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
y electronic method $0

0.5
Electronic failure Use mechanical method
1 $30,000
$0 -$120,000

0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
y magnetic method $0

0.3
Magnetic failure Use mechanical method
1 $0
$0 -$120,000

-$50,000

$0
ID Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2
0 0 0 D 2 1 2
0 0 E 2 3 4
0 0 T 0 0 0
1 D 3 5 6
1 T 0 0 0
0 3 T 0 0 0
0 3 E 2 8 9
0 3 E 2 10 11
6 T 0 0 0
6 D 1 12 0
7 T 0 0 0
7 D 1 13 0
0 9 T 0 0 0
0 11 T 0 0 0
S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
0 0 0 25 1 1
0 0 0 18 5 1
0 0 0 32 5 1
7 0 0 10 9 1
0 0 0 27 9 1
0 0 0 2 13 1
0 0 0 9 13 1
0 0 0 19 13 1
0 0 0 7 17 1
0 0 0 12 17 1
0 0 0 17 17 1
0 0 0 22 17 1
0 0 0 12 21 1
0 0 0 22 21 1
 Use mechanical method

-$120,000

0.5 Try electronic method

Awarded contract
1 -$50,000
$250,000 $80,000
0.41335

Prepare proposal
Try magnetic method
-$50,000 $1,337
0.00887 -$80,000

1 0.5
$1,337 Not awarded contract
0.00887
$0 -$50,000
-0.39561

Do not prepare proposal

$0 $0
0.00000
 Label in cell on left is the
se mechanical method defined name of cell on right.
$80,000
$80,000 RT
0.41335
0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
y electronic method $0 $150,000
0.63212
$78,307 0.5
0.40669 Electronic failure
$30,000
-$120,000 $30,000
0.18127
0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
y magnetic method $0 $120,000
0.55067
$73,035 0.3
0.38547 Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0
0.00000

-$50,000

$0
abel in cell on left is the
efined name of cell on right.

$150,000
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS
0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D 2
1 0 0 E 2
2 0 0 T 0
3 1 D 3
4 1 T 0
5 0 3 T 0
6 0 3 E 2
7 0 3 E 2
8 6 T 0
9 6 T 0
10 7 T 0
11 7 T 0
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col
1 2 0 0 0 25 1
3 4 0 0 0 18 5
0 0 0 0 0 32 5
5 6 7 0 0 10 9
0 0 0 0 0 27 9
0 0 0 0 0 2 13
8 9 0 0 0 9 13
10 11 0 0 0 19 13
0 0 0 0 0 7 17
0 0 0 0 0 12 17
0 0 0 0 0 17 17
0 0 0 0 0 22 17
Mark
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
 Use mechanical method

-$120,000

0.5 Try electronic method

Awarded contract
1 -$50,000
$250,000 $80,000
0.78714

Prepare proposal
Try magnetic method
-$50,000 $1,337
0.39357 -$80,000

1 0.5
$1,337 Not awarded contract
0.39357
$0 -$50,000
0.00000

Do not prepare proposal

$0 $0
0.38494
 Label in cell on left is the
se mechanical method defined name of cell on right.
$80,000
$80,000 RT
0.78714
0.5 Low
Electronic success High
$150,000
y electronic method $0 $150,000 A
1.00000 B
$78,307 0.5
0.78066 Electronic failure
$30,000
-$120,000 $30,000
0.56131
0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
y magnetic method $0 $120,000
0.92075
$73,035 0.3
0.76000 Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0
0.38494

-$50,000

$0
abel in cell on left is the Value Risk Utility
efined name of cell on right. -$50,000 0.00000

Utility or Expected Utility, U(x)

-$45,000 0.04452
$150,000 -$40,000 0.08758
-$35,000 0.12923
-$50,000 U(Low) = 0.0 -$30,000 0.16951 1.0
$150,000 U(High) = 1.0 -$25,000 0.20847
-$20,000 0.24616 0.9
1.35795235 -$15,000 0.28260
0.97301538 -$10,000 0.31786 0.8
-$5,000 0.35196
$0 0.38494
0.7
$5,000 0.41684
$10,000 0.44769
$15,000 0.47753 0.6
$20,000 0.50640
$25,000 0.53431 0.5
$30,000 0.56131
$35,000 0.58743 0.4
$40,000 0.61269
$45,000 0.63712
0.3
$50,000 0.66076
$55,000 0.68361
$60,000 0.70572 0.2
$65,000 0.72710
$70,000 0.74779 0.1
$75,000 0.76779
$80,000 0.78714 0.0
$85,000 0.80585 -$50,000
$90,000 0.82395
$95,000 0.84146
$100,000 0.85839
$105,000 0.87477
$110,000 0.89061
$115,000 0.90593
$120,000 0.92075
$125,000 0.93508
$130,000 0.94894
$135,000 0.96235
$140,000 0.97532
$145,000 0.98787
$150,000 1.00000
Utility or Expected Utility, U(x)

DriveTek Risk Utility Function

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0
-$50,000 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000
Value or Certain Equivalent, x
$150,000
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS
0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D 2
1 0 0 E 2
2 0 0 T 0
3 1 D 3
4 1 T 0
5 0 3 T 0
6 0 3 E 2
7 0 3 E 2
8 6 T 0
9 6 T 0
10 7 T 0
11 7 T 0
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col
1 2 0 0 0 25 1
3 4 0 0 0 18 5
0 0 0 0 0 32 5
5 6 7 0 0 10 9
0 0 0 0 0 27 9
0 0 0 0 0 2 13
8 9 0 0 0 9 13
10 11 0 0 0 19 13
0 0 0 0 0 7 17
0 0 0 0 0 12 17
0 0 0 0 0 17 17
0 0 0 0 0 22 17
Mark
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1