IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, VOL. 27, NO.
4, OCTOBER 2012
Calculation of a Health Index for Oil-Immersed
Transformers Rated Under 69 kV Using Fuzzy Logic
Ahmed E. B. Abu-Elanien, Member, IEEE, M. M. A. Salama, Fellow, IEEE, and M. Ibrahim
Abstract—This paper presents a new method for calculating a
health index for transformers (for operating voltage 69 kV or less)
based on diagnostic tests. The method relies on the use of furan
analysis, dissolved gas analysis, and other oil analysis results as a
means of calculating the health index using fuzzy set theory. Real
field data for 90 working transformers were used to test the pro-
posed method. The results were compared with the results calcu-
lated for the same set of transformers by an experienced asset man-
agement and health assessment consulting company. The compar-
ison shows that the results are highly reliable.
Index Terms—Asset management, condition monitoring, fuzzy
logic, health index, transformer end of life, transformer health.
I. INTRODUCTION
I N TODAY’S competitive market, a major goal of a power
utility is the reliable operation of all assets at a minimum
cost over their life span. Major assets that represent a significant
investment in any power delivery system are the transformers.
Failure of these assets can often be disasterous and result in di-
rect and indirect costs for the industrial, commercial, and resi-
dential sectors [1], [2], as well as having a negative effect on the
social life of electricity users. Careful management of this type
of asset is therefore critical.
An important factor that allows power utilities to enhance
the performance of their transformers is knowledge about the
health condition of a transformer, which is important for im-
proving reliability and assisting in the determination of appro-
priate asset-management decisions, such as the identification of
transformers that could benefit from life extension measures and
those that need immediate replacement [3].
A health index is a useful tool for combining all of the cur-
rent information about a transformer in order to provide a single
quantitative index that represents its overall health. While the
resulting health index does not reflect the status of any partic-
ular part of a transformer with respect to repair, it does represent
the level of long-term degradation, a condition not easily deter-
mined by routine inspection [4], [5]. Monitoring a transformer
Manuscript received October 03, 2011; revised January 20, 2012, February
16, 2012, April 19, 2012, and June 11, 2012; accepted June 12, 2012. Date of
publication July 31, 2012; date of current version September 19, 2012. Paper
no. TPWRD-00846-2011.
A. E. B. Abu-Elanien and M. Ibrahim are with the Electrical and Computer
Engineering Department, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1
Canada (e-mail: abayoumy@uwaterloo.ca).
M. M. A. Salama is with the Electrical and Computer Engineering Depart-
ment, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1 Canada. He is also with
King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia (e-mail: ksu.edu.sa).
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TPWRD.2012.2205165
0885-8977/$31.00 © 2012 IEEE
2029
health and giving the transformer an index that represents its
overall health is different from the classical condition moni-
toring. The interaction between the attributes is not considered
in the classical condition monitoring techniques. The overall
health of the transformer is presented by the health index by con-
sidering the interaction between different condition monitoring
tests. More details about transformer condition monitoring can
be found in [6].
The health index can thus provide an indication of a trans-
former’s proximity to end of life, which includes identifying
both assets that have reached their end of life and assets that
are at high risk of generalized failure [4], [5], [7], [8]. With
this information, utilities and industry can determine which
transformers need immediate major capital expenditures, such
as refurbishment or replacement, which will need refurbish-
ment or replacement in the near future but not immediately,
and which are in good condition and do not need any action.
The health index can also be useful for planning routine main-
tenance strategies for transformers showing signs of rapid
deterioration that do not correspond to the rate of the natural
aging process. Scaling the health index from zero for a brand
new transformer to unity for a transformer at the end of its life
enables the transformer operator to obtain a clear idea of how
close a transformer is to the end of life.
Research in the field of transformer health indexing is fairly
new, and few related papers have been published. More research
is therefore needed so that the industry can experience the full
benefits of this type of index. An attempt is made in [9] to diag-
nose faults inside a transformers using different condition mon-
itoring tests. However, in this paper, the authors did not pro-
vide a single health index that represents the overall health of
a transformer. In [4] and [5], a variety of measures of trans-
former aging, such as furans content and winding resistance,
was used to calculate a quantitative health index. A linear rela-
tionship was assumed between the transformer health index and
the measurements used. Each element of this linear relationship
was given a weight according to its importance in the evaluation
of transformer health. However, for the calculation of the health
index, the methods presented in [4] and [5] give less weight to
the measurements based on furans than to other less important
factors, such as the winding resistance and dissipation factor.
The amount of furans is an important indication of the degree of
polymerization (DP) of the solid insulation in a transformer [1],
[10]–[12]. DP is one of the main indicators of the health of the
solid insulation, which, in turn, is the primary reason for a trans-
former to reach the end of its life [13]–[16]. The work reported
in [17] includes most of the parameters affecting the health of
a transformer; however, this paper does not reveal the method
2030
used in the calculation of the health index. The furan content in
the transformer oil is ignored in the methods presented in [18]
and [19], and no other tests are used to indicate the condition
of the solid insulation for the purposes of calculating the health
index.
The main procedures used in all of the research related to
finding a transformer health index have been based on scoring
the available transformer tests in grade ranges from one to four
or five grades, according to their condition and allocating a
weight to each test according to its importance. All weighted
tests have then been used to calculate the health index based
on their interconnected linear relationships. However, this tech-
nique gives rise to two disadvantages. The first is that the al-
location of weights to the tests is based on the experience of
transformer experts, which differs from one expert to another.
The deviation of these weights from accurate values causes the
calculated health index also to deviate from an accurate value.
The second disadvantage is that the numerical thresholds be-
tween the different scores (grades) for many of the diagnostic
tests cannot be found precisely: an overlap, or fuzzy region,
still exists. A solution for both of these problems is to use a
fuzzy-logic technique. The fuzzy-logic output is based on ex-
pert rules based on non-numeric (linguistic) expressions for all
input values. In this case, the exact weight for each diagnostic
test is not needed because all that is needed in order to design
the rules is knowledge of the importance of each test relative
to the others. Fuzzy logic is also based on fuzzification of the
input, which uses linguistic membership functions to convert
the crisp values of all of the tests into linguistic expressions
for each test. Any membership function of any test may inter-
sect with neighboring membership functions, which means that
no sharp thresholds are needed between grades. This feature of
fuzzy logic overcomes the problem of finding crisp thresholds
between the different scores (grades) for each test. Detailed in-
formation about fuzzy-logic systems can be found in [20] and
[21].
The main aim of the research presented in this paper was to
use fuzzy logic to evaluate the health index of a transformer
using real measurements. The health index was determined
based on data from actual field diagnostic tests. The data were
taken from the distribution systems of industrial facilities,
which had commissioned a specialized asset-management and
health assessment consulting company to derive and populate a
health index for each of the distribution transformers located at
one of the company’s operating sites. In the remainder of this
paper, the asset-management and health assessment consulting
company is called AMHA. To facilitate the process of deriving
and populating a health index for each transformer, AMHA
undertook oil sampling and a test program for 90 oil-filled
transformers. The test data provided were the water content,
acidity, oil breakdown voltage (BDV), hydrogen content (H ),
methane content (CH ), ethylene content (C H ), acetylene
content (C H ), ethane (C H ), furans content, dissipation
factor (DF), and total solids for each transformer: a total of 990
tests for 11 data categories. The health indices for all of the
transformers, as calculated by AMHA, were also provided.
Measuring the moisture content, acidity, and breakdown
strength of the transformer oil provides a good indication of
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, VOL. 27, NO. 4, OCTOBER 2012
the overall condition of the oil and the internal components.
The quality of the oil is a useful indicator of the health of a
transformer because it is critical in preventing the premature
aging of the transformer and in extending its service life. 2-Fur-
furaldehyde analysis provides a highly accurate measurement
of the condition of the paper insulation because the furans con-
tent is correlated to the degree of polymerization of the paper.
2-Furfuraldehyde levels reaching specified values mean that the
insulation has effectively broken down, and the probability of
failure is therefore very high. Analyzing the levels of a variety
of dissolved combustible gases (DCG) in the oil also identifies
electrical discharges, arcing, and thermal activity within the
transformer, which are other strong indicators of aging.
The method used by AMHA to calculate the heath indices
was not revealed in their final report. The values of the AMHA
health indices ranged between zero and unity. A health index of
zero represented a brand new transformer, and a health index of
unity indicated that the transformer should be replaced immedi-
ately. According to AMHA, values between zero and unity cor-
relate to good, moderate, or bad levels of transformer health:
zero to 0.4 is good, 0.4 to 0.7 is moderate, and 0.7 to unity is
bad. AMHA based their selection of these thresholds on a large
number of transformers tests. The health indices calculated by
AMHA were compared with the results presented in this paper.
The remainder of this paper consists of five sections:
Section II explains the details of the proposed replacement
method, Section III includes the results obtained using the pro-
posed approach, Section IV discusses these results, Section V
presents a comparison of the health indices calculated using the
proposed method and those provided by AMHA, and Section VI
contains the conclusions resulting from this research.
II. PROPOSED METHOD OF CALCULATING A
TRANSFORMER HEALTH INDEX
The test data available were divided into six sets: water con-
tent, acidity, BDV, DF, DCG, and 2-Furfuraldehyde. DCG rep-
resents the summation of the levels of H , CH , C H , C H ,
and C H . Individual gases are perfectly suited for diagnosing
the type of fault inside a transformer for the purposes of deter-
mining specific repairs, but because the health index represents
instead the overall health of the transformer, the levels of the
key gases in the dissolved gas analysis (DGA) can be totaled
into one value.
Six membership functions were used for the fuzzification
process for all data sets. The output from the fuzzification
process is therefore six linguistic variables for all data sets.
Thirty-three expert rules were used to map the six linguistic
input values to one linguistic output that represents the health
index. Specifically designed membership functions were used
to represent the transformer health index (output). These mem-
bership functions perform the defuzzification process in order
to determine a crisp value for the transformer health index.
A. Design of the Membership Functions
The design of the membership functions was based mainly
on IEEE standards, the literature, and the experience of trans-
former field operators. The operating voltages for all test trans-
formers are 69 kV or less; the membership functions generated
ABU-ELANIEN et al.: CALCULATION OF A HEALTH INDEX FOR OIL-IMMERSED TRANSFORMERS 2031

Fig. 1. Membership functions for water content. Fig. 2. Membership functions for acidity content.

in this paper are designed for these voltage levels. More details
about creation of fuzzy membership functions can be found in
[20]–[22].
1) Membership Functions for Water Content: A large portion
of the population of aging transformers is contaminated with
water to some degree. The water content in transformer oil has
well-known effects on the health of a transformer, such as accel-
eration of the rate of aging [16], [23]; reduction in the dielectric
strength at high percentages of saturation in the oil [24], [25];
and problems caused by bubbling at high temperatures [26]. The
water content in transformer oil is a good indicator of the con- Fig. 3. Membership functions for oil BDV.
dition of the oil, and because the aging of the paper insulation
contributes to some of the water content, water content also re-
flects to some extent the condition of the paper insulation.
The membership functions of water content in transformer
oil were based on dividing the level of the water content into
three linguistic terms: good, moderate, and bad. Three member-
ship functions were therefore used to model the levels of water
content, as shown in Fig. 1. The limits of the three water con-
tent conditions were taken mainly from IEEE Standard C57.106
2006 [24] for 69 kV and below. For higher voltages, the allowed
water content level for continued use of insulating oil is lower
than the levels shown in Fig. 1.
2) Membership Functions for Acidity: The total acidity of Fig. 4. Membership functions for the dissipation factor.
the transformer oil, measured in mgKOH/g, is another indica-
tion of the deterioration of the transformer’s overall insulation
system. The total acidity increases continuously with extended The membership functions for these three conditions are shown
service periods of the transformer oil and can therefore be used in Fig. 3 [24].
to indicate the health of the oil [27]. The deterioration of the 4) Membership Functions for the Dissipation Factor: The
paper insulation also increases the acidity of the transformer oil dissipation factor is a measure of the power lost in the trans-
[23]. former oil during the operation of the transformer and is used
As with the water content, three membership functions were to evaluate the electric properties and contamination of the
used to model the level of acidity (good, moderate, and bad), as insulating oil. The dissipation factor increases with deterio-
shown in Fig. 2. The limits of the three conditions were taken ration of the oil. The dissipated power is transferred to the
mainly from [5] and [24]. transformer oil in the form of heat energy, which increases the
3) Membership Functions for Oil BDV: The BDV of the overall temperature of the transformer and accelerates its aging
insulating oil is a measure of its ability to withstand voltage process. The membership functions describing the condition
stresses [24]. The BDV tests for the data under study were con- (good, moderate, or bad) of the transformer according to the
ducted according to the ASTM D18l6, 1-mm gap test proce- dissipation factor are shown in Fig. 4. The membership func-
dures [24]. The BDV test is one of the most reliable measures tions were designed according to [4] and [24].
of oil quality. Low-strength oil may cause increased partial dis- 5) Membership Functions for DCG: At normal operating
charges and partial sparks that accelerate the aging of trans- temperatures, all transformers generate a variety of gases,
formers. The condition of the transformer oil with respect to known as dissolved combustible gases (DCG). However, the
BDV was divided into three types: good, moderate, and bad. concentration of these gases increases in two cases: 1) the
2032
Fig. 5. Membership functions for dissolved combustible gases.
presence of an abnormality (fault) inside the transformer, and
2) the aging of the transformer [2], [28]. Predefined critical
levels of key gases or one of the ratio methodologies, such
as the Rogers or Dornenberg ratios [28], [29], can be used
to identify the fault inside the transformer. However, in this
research, the purpose of using DGA is to assess the overall
health of the transformer, not to determine the types of faults
inside the transformer. The overall condition of the transformer
is therefore monitored using the summation of the total DCG
levels available: H , CH , C H , C H , and C H . The mem-
bership functions showing the condition (good, moderate, or
bad) of the transformer with respect to the levels of combustible
gases available are shown in Fig. 5 [29].
6) Membership Functions for 2-Furfuraldehyde Content:
The 2-Furfuraldehyde content is considered the most impor-
tant factor in assessing transformer health because it directly
assesses the health of the solid insulation, a decline in which is
the main reason for the end of life of a transformer [13]–[16].
Moisture content in solid insulation and internal winding tem-
perature are the main reasons for growth of 2-Furfuraldehyde
content in transformer oil. Because of the importance of this
measurement, the health condition of the transformer with
respect to 2-Furfuraldehyde content was evaluated according
to five conditions (good, low moderate, high moderate, bad,
or very bad). The membership functions for 2-Furfuraldehyde
for nonthermally upgraded paper are shown in Fig. 6. The
solid insulation of the transformer is considered to be in good
condition if the DP is greater than 700 units (corresponding
to a 2-Furfuraldehyde level of about 0.13 ppm [2]). The solid
insulation of the transformer is considered to be in a very bad
condition if the DP is below 200 units (corresponding to a
2-Furfuraldehyde level of about 7.3 ppm [2]). Three conditions
are assumed between very bad and good: low moderate (0.13
ppm to 1.2 ppm which corresponds to DP of 700 ppm to 425
ppm [2]), high moderate (0.8 ppm to 3.55 ppm which corre-
sponds to DP of 560 ppm to 290 ppm [2]), and bad (2.8 ppm to
7.3 ppm which corresponds to DP of 320 ppm to 200 ppm).
7) Membership Functions for the Output Health Index:
The transformer health index was divided into five conditions:
very good, good, moderate, bad, and very bad. The very good
condition membership function covers health indices from zero
to 0.25, good covers health indices from 0.2 to 0.4, moderate
covers health indices from 0.35 to 0.7, bad covers health indices
from 0.65 to 0.9, and very bad covers health indices from 0.85
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, VOL. 27, NO. 4, OCTOBER 2012
Fig. 6. Membership functions for the 2-Furfuraldehyde content.
Fig. 7. Membership functions for the health index.
to 1. The membership functions for the health index are shown
in Fig. 7.
B. Expert Rules
Thirty-three expert rules are used in the fuzzy-logic model
for the calculation of the transformer health index. The 2-Fur-
furaldehyde content is given the highest priority due to its reli-
able results for assessing the health of the solid insulation. The
DCG results are given second priority, while loss factor, acidity,
water content, and breakdown voltage are allocated lower pri-
ority. The expert rules are listed in Table I.
III. RESULTS
Fuzzy inference is the process of formulating the mapping
from the six inputs values to the health index value using fuzzy
logic. For the purposes of this research, the Mamdani max-
imum-minimum fuzzy interfacing method was used [30]. The
first step in the Mamdani maximum-minimum method is to con-
vert the numerical values for water content, acidity, BDV, DCG,
2-Furfuraldehyde content, and DF into linguistic expressions
using the corresponding sets of membership functions. By sub-
stituting these linguistic expressions in the expert fuzzy rules,
a subset of rules is fired. The Mamdani maximum-minimum
method involves truncating the resulting membership function
of the output (health index) for each rule fired at the minimum
membership value of all the antecedents. A final aggregated
membership function is achieved by taking the union of all trun-
cated output membership functions of the fired rules. Defuzzi-
fication using the centroid method is performed on this aggre-
gated membership function in order to find a crisp value for the
output (health index).
ABU-ELANIEN et al.: CALCULATION OF A HEALTH INDEX FOR OIL-IMMERSED TRANSFORMERS 2033

TABLE I
FUZZY-LOGIC RULES

Table II shows the input data, the health indices given by
AMHA, and the health indices calculated for a sample of 30
transformers from the 90 working transformers. Transformer
25 is an example that illustrates the method of calculating the
health index using the given membership functions and expert
rules. The truth values (degrees of membership) for water con-
tent, acidity, BDV, DF, DCG, and 2-Furfuraldehyde content for
transformer 25 are 18.4, 0.152, 37.2, 0.299, 81, and 1.14, re-
spectively. Based on Figs. 1 to 6, the corresponding conditions
for the six input values are good with a degree of membership
2034
TABLE II
HEALTH INDICES CALCULATED AND THE HEALTH INDICES PROVIDED BY AMHA FOR TRANSFORMERS 1 TO 50
Fig. 8. Output membership function for the health index of transformer number 25 according to rule 7.
of 1, moderate with a degree of membership of 1, good with a
degree of membership of 1, moderate with a degree of member-
ship of 1, good with a degree of membership of 1, low moderate
with a degree of membership of 0.15, or high moderate with a
degree of membership of 0.85, respectively. These conditions
fire rules 7–12, 25, and 27.
Rules 7–12 state that the health index is moderate; whereas
rules 25 and 27 state that the health index is good. The Mam-
dani maximum-minimum fuzzy interfacing method is used to
find the area under the moderate membership function of the
health index according to rule 7 (truncated membership func-
tion), as shown in Fig. 8. Rules 8–12 give the same shape as
rule 7. The same approach is used to find the area under the good
membership function of the health index according to rule 25,
as shown in Fig. 9. The area under the good membership func-
tion of the health index according to rule 25 is the same as that
for rule 27. The two shapes are aggregated to provide the final
membership function for the health index of transformer 25, as
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, VOL. 27, NO. 4, OCTOBER 2012
shown in Fig. 10. The health index of transformer 25 is calcu-
lated by defuzzifying the final aggregated membership function
using the centroid method. The health index of transformer 25
is thus found to be 0.51.
IV. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
A total of 81 of the 90 transformers were installed between
1980 and 1981. The samples were taken in 2006, which means
that the ages of the majority of the transformers range between
25 and 26 years; eight are in bad or very bad condition, and
the remainder are in acceptable condition. The differences in
the health condition of the transformers installed between 1980
and 1981 may be the result of the loading pattern, the harmonic
content of the load, differences in maintenance plans, a varying
number of through faults, partial-discharge activities, or prob-
lems in the forced cooling system. Six transformers were in-
stalled between 1986 and 2000, which means that the oldest
among them was 20 years old at the time of the test. The health
ABU-ELANIEN et al.: CALCULATION OF A HEALTH INDEX FOR OIL-IMMERSED TRANSFORMERS
Fig. 9. Output membership function for the health index of transformer number 25 according to rule 25.
Fig. 10. Final membership function for the health index of transformer no. 25.
condition of all of them ranges from very good to good, which
was to be expected because these transformers are fairly new.
The health condition of one transformer that was installed in
1970 is very bad because it is fairly old. The installation dates
of the remaining two transformers are unknown.
Transformers that are in very bad condition are likely to fail
before very long because the DP is below 200 units. These
transformers should be replaced immediately. Transformers
in bad condition have a high probability of failure but not as
soon as those in very bad condition. The replacement of these
transformers should be planned in the near future. Transformers
in moderate condition do not need to be replaced in the short
term; however, their condition does not allow them to be left
without any treatment. Testing of these transformers should
be repeated within the next few years. New transformers in
moderate condition should be investigated in order to discover
any unusual internal faults that could accelerate the aging.
Since the probability of failure is very low, transformers in very
good or good condition do not require any special care beyond
regular maintenance.
V. COMPARISON WITH THE AMHA RESULTS
The results were compared with those provided by AMHA;
however, the comparison had to be conducted carefully in order
to take into consideration the fact that the AMHA index was
based on a crisp number whereas the health index calculated in
this research was based on a fuzzy-logic technique (linguistic
manipulation). This discrepancy is apparent in Table II, which
shows that the crisp numbers of health indices (AMHA and the
one based on fuzzy logic) are not perfectly matched. Nonethe-
less, the interpreted linguistic expressions of both indices are
very similar. It is important to note here that the implementa-
tion of the fuzzy-logic technique for the calculation of the health
index required the creation of a different number of health con-
dition categories: very good, good moderate, bad, and very bad.
In the AMHA method, the health index categories are good,
moderate, and bad.
2035
TABLE III
COMPARISON OF THE HEALTH CONDITIONS PRODUCED BY THE METHOD
PRESENTED AND THE HEALTH CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY AMHA
To facilitate the comparison, the very good and good health
index conditions produced by the fuzzy-logic decisions were
compared with the good category from AMHA. The bad and
very bad conditions produced by the fuzzy-logic decisions were
compared with the bad category from AMHA. The rationale for
matching the very good and good categories from the fuzzy-
logic-based health index with the good category in the AMHA
health index is based on the fact that the follow-up decisions
for handling a transformer whose health index falls into those
categories are the same, and the same reasoning applies to very
bad and bad. Table III summarizes this comparison. According
to Table III, only three cases from the results of the fuzzy-logic
method are not identical to those provided by AMHA, which
means that the results of the method presented and the results
provided by the expert consulting company are a 96.7% match.
VI. CONCLUSION
A procedure for calculating a health index for oil-immersed
transformers using fuzzy set theory is introduced in this paper.
Acidity, water content, the dissipation factor, and the BDV of the
transformer oil, in addition to furan analysis and DGA were used
as inputs for a fuzzy-logic model for calculating a transformer
health index. Six-membership functions and 33 expert rules are
used to map the six input values into output decisions for pro-
ducing the transformer health index. The method presented was
tested using field data for 90 working transformers. The results
were then compared with the results obtained by a specialized
AMHA. The comparison shows that 96.7% of the results are
similar.
The AMHA method was based on thresholds while the
method presented is based on memberships and is therefore
more general, and the rules used in the calculation are trans-
parent to the user. Unlike the AMHA method, the presented
method can be used directly by utilities and industries in order
to determine the health indices of their fleets of transformers,
which is a significant advantage.
2036
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Ahmed E. B. Abu-Elanien (S’07–M’11) was born
in Alexandria, Egypt, in 1979. He received the
B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees in electrical engineering
from Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt, in
2001 and 2006, respectively, and the Ph.D. degree
in electrical engineering from the University of
Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada, in 2011.
Currently, he is a Postdoctoral Fellow in the De-
partment of Electrical and Computer Engineering,
University of Waterloo. His research interests are
asset management, condition monitoring, and appli-
cation of digital signal processing techniques in power systems.
M. M. A. Salama (F’02), photograph and biography not available at the time
of publication.
M. Ibrahim, photograph and biography not available at the time of publication.