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Fibonacci Primer

MODULE 1: THE SEQUENCE

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Modules

Elliott Wave Ultimate Course: Section III

Module 1: The Sequence


Fibonacci Primer
Module 2: Expansion and Contraction

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Market Cycle

Fibonacci Expansion and Contraction in Markets

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Intro to Mathematical Applications

Fibonacci Sequence of Numbers


Leonardo Fibonacci was an Italian mathematician born in the 12th century.

He is known to have discovered the Fibonacci sequence of numbers.

A sequence of numbers after zero and one, where each successive number
is the sum of the two previous numbers.

0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144…


1 + 1= 2 2+3=5 5 + 8 = 13 13 + 21 = 34 34 + 55 = 89
1 + 2= 3 3+5=8 8 + 13 = 21 21 + 34 = 55

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The Golden Section

Fibonacci Ratios
The Golden Section is obtained by finding the ratio between successive values in the
Fibonacci series of numbers.

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377…

= ~ 0.618
 Denoted by the Greek Letter phi
 Inverse or reciprocal of phi = Phi:

1/.618 = ~ 1.618
+ Also calculated by taking the ratio of any Fibonacci number to its next
lower number
+ Called The Golden Ratio or Phi = Φ

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The Golden Section

Fibonacci Ratios
The Golden Section is obtained by finding the ratio between successive values in the
Fibonacci series of numbers.

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377…

Number Divided By Ratio


8 13 0.615
13 21 0.619
21 34 0.618
34 55 0.618
55 89 0.618
89 144 0.618

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The Golden Section

Fibonacci Ratios
The Golden Ratio is obtained by finding the ratio of any Fibonacci number to its next lower
number.

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377…

Number Divided By Ratio


13 8 1.625
21 13 1.615
34 21 1.619
55 34 1.618
89 55 1.618
144 89 1.618

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The Golden Section

Fibonacci Ratios
Or by finding the ratio between every second value in the Fibonacci series of
numbers.

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377…

Number Divided By Ratio


34 89 0.382
89 233 0.382
55 144 0.382
34 13 2.615
89 34 2.618
144 55 2.618

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The Golden Section

Fibonacci Ratios
Or by finding the ratio between every third value in the Fibonacci series of numbers.
1 2 3
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377…
3 2 1

Number Divided By Ratio


34 144 0.236
55 233 0.236
89 377 0.236
89 21 4.238
144 34 4.235
233 55 4.236

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Fibonacci with Elliott Wave Theory

Elliott and the Fibonacci Sequence


 The Wave Principle (1938)
+ Also known as the Elliott Wave Principle
+ Tied collective human behavior patterns to the
Fibonacci sequence or golden ratio

Ralph Nelson Elliott


1871 – 1948

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Fibonacci with Elliott Wave Theory

Elliott and the Fibonacci Sequence

The three important aspects of wave theory are:

 Wave Form Elliott observed in his work that patterns in the


market are repetitive in form, but not necessarily in
 Ratio time or amplitude.
 Time Pattern refers to this wave sequence completing a
5
cycle in any time frame and is considered the most
B important element of the three in wave analysis.
3
A However, we will look very closely at ratio analysis,
1 C and introduce time analysis as well.
4

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Fibonacci and Wave Form

Fibonacci Numbers in Elliott’s Wave Form

Wave form

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, A, B, C = 8 waves 144
13 55
1 1 5 8
i ii iii iv v a b c etc.21
3 34
= 34 waves
89 + 55 = 144 waves 89
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Fibonacci and Wave Form

Elliott and the Fibonacci Sequence

Frost, A.J. and Robert Prechter. Elliott Wave Principle (West Sussex, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 1999).

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Fibonacci and Wave Form

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Nomenclature - According to Elliott

Elliott and the Fibonacci Sequence


Look at a shorter time frame and suddenly 2 waves turns into 8 waves. On a smaller time
frame, 8 waves breaks down into 34 waves.

Weekly

Daily
(1) and (2) = 2 waves
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, A, B, C = 8 waves
i ii iii iv v a b c = 34 waves
Hourly
21 waves 13 waves

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Nomenclature - According to Elliott

Elliott and the Fibonacci Sequence


Naming conventions:

 Primary wave degrees on monthly charts


1 2 3 4 5 A B C
 Intermediate wave degrees on weekly charts
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (A) (B) (C)
 Minor wave degrees on daily charts
1 2 3 4 5 A B C
 Minute wave degrees on hourly charts
i ii iii iv v a b c

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Nomenclature - According to Elliott

Elliott and the Fibonacci Sequence

Wave Degree 5-wave Impulsive 3-wave Corrective Time Frame


Grand Super Cycle I II III IV V a b c

Super Cycle (I) (II) (III) (IV) (V) (a) (b) (c) Annual
Cycle I II III IV V a b c Quarterly
Primary 1 2 3 4 5 A B C Monthly
Intermediate (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (A) (B) (C) Weekly
Minor 1 2 3 4 5 A B C Daily
Minute i ii iii iv v a b c Hourly
Minuette (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (a) (b) (c) 15-minute
Subminuette i ii iii iv v a b c 5-minute
Frost, A.J. and Robert Prechter. Elliott Wave Principle (West Sussex, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 1999).

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Nomenclature - ROYGBIV

Motive wave Correction


Wave Degree 5-wave Trend 3-wave color / font Timeframe

Cycle 12345 abc black 22 Quarterly


Primary 12345 ABC red 20 Monthly
Intermediate 12345 ABC yellow/orange 20 Weekly
Minor 12345 ABC green 20 Daily
Minute 1 2 3 4 5 abc blue 18 4 Hour

Minuette 1 2 3 4 5 abc purple 18 and

Subminuette 1 2 3 4 5 abc white 18 1 Hour


Micro 12345 ABC red 16 15 Minute

Submicro 12345 ABC yellow 16 and

Miniscule 12345 ABC green 16 5 Minute

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Nomenclature - ROYGBIV

Standardized Motive waves:


sequence of UC Roman numerals
Corrections:
labels Lower case letters
involving:
Motive waves:
Arabic numerals
Numbers and Corrections:
Letters Upper case letters

Motive waves:
Arabic and LC Roman numerals
Roman Corrections:
numerals Lower case letters

Easily Motive waves:


Arabic numerals
memorized Corrections:
repetition Upper case letters

Frost, A.J. and Robert Prechter. Elliott Wave Principle (Georgia, New Classics Library, 2005).
Scheme to differentiate the degrees of waves in the wave progression UC = UPPER CASE LC = lower case

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Wave Label Exercise - ROYGBIV

Top Down Approach

MONTHLY – PRIMARY
– red 20 pt 1

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Wave Label Exercise - ROYGBIV

Weekly

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Wave Label Exercise - ROYGBIV

Top Down Approach


1
WEEKLY – INTERMEDIATE
– orange 20 pt

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Wave Label Exercise - ROYGBIV

Top Down Approach


1
5
WEEKLY – INTERMEDIATE B
– orange 20 pt
3 A

C
4 2

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Wave Label Exercise - ROYGBIV

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Wave Label Exercise - ROYGBIV

Top Down Approach

DAILY– MINOR
1
- green 20 pt 5 B

A
3
C
4 2

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Wave Label Exercise - ROYGBIV

Top Down Approach

DAILY – MINOR 1
5 B
- green 20 pt 52
C2
3 1 4 A
3 B 1
4 5 4
3 A
5 1 3
B
3 5
A C 2 C
2
4 4
1
5 1
3 B
1 A 2
4 C
2
2
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Wave Label Exercise - ROYGBIV

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Ratio Analysis

Fibonacci Numbers in Ratio Analysis

Wave form  The interrelationship of the numbers in the


Fibonacci sequence produce three important ratios:
Ratio analysis
 0.618

 0.382

 0.500 (halfway between 0.618 and 0.382)

 Markets react to these Fibonacci levels time and


time again which is why they cannot be ignored

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Ratio Analysis

Fibonacci Numbers in Ratio Analysis

Wave form
A B
Ratio analysis

A/B = .382/.618
.382 .618

B/C = .618/1.00
1.00
= .618
C

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Ratio Analysis

Fibonacci Numbers in Ratio Analysis


5

Wave form
3

0.382
Ratio analysis

4
1

0.618
2

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Ratio Analysis

Fibonacci Numbers in Ratio Analysis

0.618
0.382
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Ratio Analysis

0.382
0.618
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Market Contraction

Fibonacci Numbers in Ratio Analysis - Corrections

Wave form 1
5

Ratio analysis
3 B

0.618
A
4
1
C
2

0.382
2

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Market Contraction

Fibonacci Numbers in Ratio Analysis - Corrections

Wave form 3
5

Ratio analysis
B

0.382
3

4 C
1 4

0.618
2

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Market Contraction

Fibonacci Retracements

Wave form Use the three Fibonacci ratios to


predict the end of a retracement
1
Ratio analysis

38.2%

2
100%

 e.g. Wave 2 retracing wave 1


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Market Contraction

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Market Contraction

Fibonacci Retracements

Wave form Use the three Fibonacci ratios to


predict the end of a retracement
1
Ratio analysis

50%

100% 2

 e.g. Wave 2 retracing wave 1

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Market Contraction

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Market Contraction

Fibonacci Retracements

Wave form Use the three Fibonacci ratios to


predict the end of a retracement
1
Ratio analysis

61.8%

100%
2

 e.g. Wave 2 retracing wave 1

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Market Contraction

3rd profit target


2nd profit target

1st profit target

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Market Contraction

Fibonacci Retracements

Wave form

Ratio analysis Common Ratios for Retracements


 0.236 To the left we have the most common
Fibonacci retracements but what about the
 0.382 square root of .618?
 0.5
With this retracement, the Elliott Wave
 0.618 structure offers an additional target.

0.786= √0.618
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Elliott Retracement Waves

Fibonacci Retracements – Wave 2

Wave form Wave 4 can also be a


5 triangle or a complex
Ratio analysis combo
B
3 Guideline of Alternation
applies to this example

1 A
C Wave 2 targets:
4
B  0.50 times wave 1
Irregular flat
(sideways)  0.618 times wave 1
A
C  1 times wave 1
2
 Does not exceed 1
Zigzag times wave 1
(sharp, simple)

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Elliott Retracement Waves

Wave 4
retraces
<38.2% of
Wave 3

Wave 2 retraces
61.8% of Wave 1

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Elliott Retracement Waves

Fibonacci Retracements – Wave 4

Wave form Guideline of Alternation


5
dictates that wave 4 is a
Ratio analysis B sideways correction of
3 wave 3 because wave 2 is a
zigzag correction.

1 A
C Wave 4 targets:
B 4
 0.236 times wave 3
Irregular flat
(sideways)  0.382 times wave 3
A
C  0.50 times wave 3
2
Zigzag
(sharp, simple)
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Elliott Retracement Waves

Wave 2 retraces
>78.6% of Wave 1
with a zig zag

Wave 4 retraces
<23.6% of Wave 3
with an irregular flat

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Elliott Retracement Waves

Fibonacci Retracements
In zigzag wave 2, wave B retracement
Wave form depends on pattern of wave B:
5

Ratio analysis  Zigzag B


B (50 – 79% of A)
3
 Running triangle B
(10 – 40% of A)
1 A
C  Triangle B
4 (38.2 – 50% of A)
B

A Wave C targets:
C  0.618 times wave A
2
 1 times wave A
Zigzag
(sharp, simple)  1.618 times wave A

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Elliott Retracement Waves

Wave 2 retraces 78.6% of Wave 1 with a zig zag:


Wave B is 61.8% times Wave A
Wave C is 2.0 times Wave A

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Elliott Retracement Waves

Fibonacci Retracements

Wave form If wave 4 is a regular flat,


5 usually waves A, B and C are
Ratio analysis equal.
B
3 If wave 4 is an irregular or
expanded flat, then:
 Wave B is 1.236 times
1 A wave A or 1.382 times
C
4 wave A
B
 Wave C is 1.618 times
A Irregular flat wave A or 2.618 times
C (sideways) wave A
2

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Elliott Retracement Waves

Wave 4 is an
irregular flat

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Elliott Retracement Waves

Wave 4 is an
irregular flat

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Elliott Retracement Waves

Fibonacci Retracements

Wave form 5

B If wave 4 is a running flat,


Ratio analysis 3 then:
 Wave B is usually
A more than 1 times
1
C wave A
B
4
B  Wave C does not
extend beyond the
A end of Wave A
C
2
C
A
Running flat
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Elliott Retracement Waves

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Elliott Retracement Waves

Fibonacci Retracements

Wave form If wave 4 is a symmetrical,


5 ascending or descending
Ratio analysis triangle, most commonly,
each sub-wave is 0.618 times
3 the length of the previous
B alternate sub-wave:
D
 Wave E is 0.618 times
1 wave C and 0.382 times
E
C 4
wave A
B
A
 Wave C is 0.618 times
A Triangle wave A
C (symmetrical)  Wave D is 0.618 times
2
wave B

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Elliott Retracement Waves

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Elliott Retracement Waves

Fibonacci Retracements

Wave form 5 Next most common


relationship is each sub-wave
Ratio analysis
3 is 0.618 times the previous
B
adjacent sub-wave.
D For example, wave E is:
1
 0.618 times wave D
E
C 4
B  0.382 times wave C
A
Triangle  0.236 times wave B
A
C (symmetrical)  0.146 times wave A
2

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Elliott Retracement Waves

Fibonacci Retracements

Wave form 5 If wave 4 is a reverse


symmetrical (expanding)
Ratio analysis D triangle, then:
B
3  Wave E is 1.618 times
wave C
1 A  Wave D is 1.618 times
C
B wave B
E
4  Wave C is 1.618 times
A Triangle wave A
C (reverse
2
symmetrical)

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Elliott Retracement Waves

Fibonacci Retracements

Wave form 5

The next most common


Ratio analysis D relationship is 1.618 times the
B
3 previous adjacent sub-wave.
For example, wave E is:
1 A
C  1.618 times wave D
B
E  2.618 times wave C
4
A  4.236 times wave B
Triangle
C
(reverse  6.854 times wave A
2
symmetrical)

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Market Expansion

Fibonacci Projections

Wave form
Use the inverse of the Fibonacci
Ratio analysis ratios to predict the end of extensions

100%
1

100% 4

2
 e.g. Wave 3 extension

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Market Expansion

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Market Expansion

Fibonacci Projections

Wave form
Use the inverse of the Fibonacci
Ratio analysis ratios to predict the end of extensions

5
3

161.8%
4
1

100%
2
 e.g. Wave 3 extension

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Market Expansion

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Market Expansion

Fibonacci Projections

Wave form
Use the inverse of the Fibonacci
Ratio analysis ratios to predict the end of extensions
5
3

261.8%
3
100% 1

 e.g. Wave 3 extension


2

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Market Expansion

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Market Expansion

Fibonacci Projections
Use the inverse of the Fibonacci
Wave form
ratios to predict the end of extensions
5
Ratio analysis 3

423.6%
3

1
100%

2  e.g. Wave 3 extension

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Market Expansion

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Market Expansion

Fibonacci Projections

Wave form Common Ratios for Wave Extensions


 1.618 = 1 / 0.618 To the left we have the most
Ratio analysis common Fibonacci projections
 2.618 = 1 / 0.382 but what about the square
root of 1.618?
 4.236 = 1 / 0.236
With this projection, the Elliott
Wave structure offers an
additional target.
1.272= √1.618

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Elliott Trend Waves

Fibonacci Projections

Wave form 5
Wave 3 is a multiple of wave 1.
Ratio analysis B Wave 3 targets are either:
3
 1 times wave 1

A  1.618 times wave 1


1
C  2.618 times wave 1
B 4
 4.236 times wave 1
A
C extensions
2

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Elliott Trend Waves

Fibonacci Projections

Wave form 5 Wave 5 is a multiple of


wave 1 or the difference
Ratio analysis B between start of wave 1
3
and end of wave 3.
Wave 5 targets when wave
1 A 3 is extended:
C
4
 1 times wave 1
B (equality)

A  0.618 times wave 1


C  1.618 times wave 1
2
 0.618 times wave 1 to
wave 3

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Elliott Trend Waves

Fibonacci Projections

Wave form
Wave 5 is a multiple of
Ratio analysis 5 wave 1 or the difference
between start of wave 1
B and end of wave 3.
3
Wave 5 targets when wave
5 is extended:
A
1  1 times wave 1 to
C
4 wave 3
B
 1.618 times wave 1 to
A wave 3
C
2

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Elliott Trend Waves

Fibonacci Projections

Wave form

Ratio analysis 5 Wave 1 is a multiple of the


difference between tops of
B wave 3 and 5.
3
Wave 1 targets when wave
1 is extended:
1 A  1.618 times wave 3 to
C wave 5
B 4

A
C
2

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Summary of Retracements and Projections

Fibonacci Ratios

Wave form  The rule of divine proportion suggests that the market
reacts in accordance to the ratios calculated from the
numbers in the Fibonacci sequence.
Ratio analysis
Retracements Projections
(waves 2 and 4) (waves 1, 3, and 5)

38.2% 161.8%

50.0% 261.8%

61.8% 423.6%

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Fibonacci Convergence

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Fibonacci Convergence

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Fibonacci Convergence

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Fibonacci Convergence
1. Horizontal Lines Capturing Key Elliott Wave Cycle Highs and Lows

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Fibonacci Convergence
2. FIBO Retracement Tool on 2-3 Prior Swings

By measuring the FIB retracement of 3 different Elliott Wave


sequences, we are able to find confluence or convergence
zones to the right for subsequent price action
Waves (A)(B)(C)

Waves 1-5 of (C)

Wave 3

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Fibonacci Convergence
Both Combined for Convergence

By measuring the FIB retracement of 3 different Elliott Wave


sequences, we are able to find confluence or convergence
zones to the right for subsequent price action
Waves (A)(B)(C)

Waves 1-5 of (C)

Wave 3

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