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Activity No, 1 Continuous Probability Distributions
Activity No, 1 Continuous Probability Distributions
Activity No, 1 Continuous Probability Distributions
II. Uniform Probability Distribution - equal interval Example 1: Suppose the flight time can be any va
𝒇(𝒙)={■8(𝟏/𝟐𝟎@𝟎)𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝟏𝟐𝟎≤𝒙≤𝟏𝟒𝟎 𝒆𝒍𝒔𝒆𝒘𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒆 Let us assume that sufficient actual flight data are
flight time within any 1-minute interval is the sam
other 1-minute interval contained in the larger in
Uniform Probability Density Function What is the probability that the flight time is betw
𝑓(𝑥)={■8(1/ 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎 ≤𝑥≤𝑏 a= 120 b=140
(𝑏−𝑎)@0) 𝑓(𝑥)={■8(1/(140−120)@)=1/20 (130−12
elsewhere
𝜎=√33.33=5.77
Normal Curve
- bell-shaped normal curve
- Normal curve has two parameters, mean and standard deviation. They determine the location and shape of normal distribu
where:
𝜇=𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛
𝜎=𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝜋=3.14159
𝑒=2.71828
IV. Standard Normal Probability Distribution - is said to have a normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviati
- use of z -table
Standard Normal Density Function
𝒇(𝒛)=𝟏/(√𝟐𝝅) 𝒆^(𝒛^𝟐/𝟐)
Example 3: How to compute the probability that z is less than or equal to 1.00 that is 𝑃(𝑧≤1.00)
Looking on the right side table for z value of 1.00 𝑃(𝑧≤1.00)=.8413
How to compute the probability that z is in the interval betweem -.50 and 1.25; that is
𝑃(−.50≤𝑧≤1.25)
𝑃(−.50≤𝑧)=.3085 𝑃(𝑧≤1.25)=.8944
𝑷(−.𝟓𝟎≤𝒛≤𝟏.𝟐𝟓)=𝑷(𝒛≤𝟏.𝟐𝟓)−𝑷(𝒛≤−.𝟓𝟎)=.𝟖𝟗𝟒𝟒−.𝟑𝟎𝟖𝟓=.𝟓𝟖𝟓𝟗
How to compute the probability that z is in the interval between two given values.
Often it is of interest to compute the probability that a normal random variable assumes a
value within a certain number of standard deviation of the mean.
𝑃(−1.00≤𝑧≤1.00)
𝑃(−1.00≤𝑧)=.1587 𝑃(𝑧≤1.00)=.8413
Note: using z-table is the same as to the instruction of : finding the area under the curve
Example 4: Compute the probability of obtaining a z value of at least 1.58, that is: 𝑃(𝑧≥1.58)
𝑃(𝑧≥1.58)=.9429 𝑃(𝑧≥1.58)= 1-.9429 = .0571
Note: z=1if x is one standard deviation above its mean, that is, 𝑥=𝜇+𝜎
We interpret z as the number of standard deviations that the normal random variable x is from its mean.
VI. EXPONENTIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION - may be used for random variables such as the time between arrivals, time
to load, distance between major defects and so on..
𝒇(𝒙)=𝟏/𝝁 𝒆^(−𝒙/𝒖)
𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒙≥𝟎
where: u = expected value or mean
e = 2.71828
𝑷(𝒙≤𝒙_𝒐 )
=𝟏−𝒆^(−𝒙_𝒐/𝝁)
Relationship between poisson and exponential distributions
Continuous exponential probability is related to discrete poission distribution.
Poission provided an appropriate description of the number of occurences per interval.
Exponential provides description of the length of interval between occurences
umes any value in an interval.
the flight time can be any value in the interval from 120 minutes to 140 minutes.
ufficient actual flight data are available to conclude that the probability of a
1-minute interval is the same as the probability of a flight time within any
val contained in the larger interval from 120 to 140 minutes.
ty that the flight time is between 120 to 130 minutes?
0−120)@)=1/20 (130−120)=.50
20 is the probability density function, also the uniform probab density function.
𝑃(𝑧≤1.00)
.𝟓𝟖𝟓𝟗
ble assumes a
𝑃(𝑧≥1.58)
,lambda(1/mean),TRUE)
1. Consider the following exponential probability density function
𝑓(𝑥)=1/8 𝑒^(−𝑥/8 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑥≥0)
a. Write the formula for P(X <=X 𝒇(𝒙)=𝟏/𝝁 𝒆^(−𝒙/𝒖) 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒙≥𝟎
b. Find P(x<=2) 0.486583
c. Find P(x>=3) 0.367879
d. Find P(x<=5) 0.811124
e. Find P(2<=x<=5) 0.324542
3. Battery life between charges for the Motorolla Droid Razr Maxx is 20 hours when the primary use is talk time.
The battery life drops to 7 hours when the phone is primarily used for Internel applications over cellular.
Assume that the battery life in both cases follows an exponential distribution.
a. Show the probability density function for battery life for the Droid Razr Maxx phone when its primary use is talk time.
b. What is the probability that the battery charge for a randomly selected Droid Razr maxx phone will last no more than 15 ho
use is talk time?
c. What is the probability that the battery charge for a randomly selected Droid Razr Maxx phone will last more than 20 hours
primary use is talk time?
d. What is the probability that the battery charge for a randomly selected Droid Razr Maxx phone will last no more than 5 hou
use is Internet Applications?
4. The time between arrivals of vehicles at a particular intersection follows an exponential probability distribution with a mea
a. Sketch this exponential probability distribution. f(x)=1/12 e^(-x/12 for x≥0)
b. What is the probability that the arrival time between vehicles is 12 seconds or less? P(X<=12) 0.632121
c. What is the probability that the arrival time between vehicles is 6 seconds or less? P(X<=6) 0.393469
d. What is the probability of 30 or more seconds between vehicle arrivals? P(X>=30) 0.082085
se is talk time.
will last no more than 5 hours when its prim P(X<=5) 0.221199