Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture

The Effect of Climate Change on Ethiopian Agriculture

Nahom Benyam

San Jose State University

GLST 164

The social issue that will be discussed in this paper is climate change and specifically, its

negative effect on the Ethiopian agricultural industry. The issue itself is that climate change is
 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
2
significantly affecting and hurting an industry that researchers agree is the backbone of the

Ethiopian economy. According to Gezie, the Ethiopian economy is unique in that it relies heavily

on climate sensitive economic sectors such as crop cultivation and livestock production (Gezie,

2019). So variability in climate patterns caused by climate change has the ability to negatively

impact Ethiopia’s environmental and water resources, crops and livestock, human health, and

other farming livelihoods (Gezie, 2019). Research by Simane et al. found that the mean annual

temperature in Ethiopia is expected to increase by between 0.9 and 1.1 degrees Celsius by 2030

and by approximately 2.2 degrees celsius by 2050 (Simane et al., 2016). Mean annual rainfall in

Ethiopia is also predicted to increase by approximately 1.1 degree celsius by the year 2050

(Simane et al., 2016). This data illustrates the issue perfectly in that substantial increases in mean

annual temperature and rainfall will result in increased frequency and intensity of droughts as

well as floods which will significantly damage crops throughout Ethiopia.

Now that we have briefly discussed the issue, we must discuss the effect that agricultural

damage will have on the Ethiopian society in order to gauge how the social issue affects people

at an individual level. Agriculture is the main sector of the Ethiopian economy and is extremely

popular, especially for those who live in rural areas, because it doesn’t require specialized

education in a country that struggled to provide adequate educational opportunities. Gezie found

that agriculture comprises approximately 52% of Ethiopia’s GDP, 85% of foreign exchange

earnings, and provides employment for 85% of the population (Gezie, 2019). Many people in

Ethiopia, especially those of a lower socioeconomic status, depend on the agricultural industry as

their only form of employment and way to collect income so harm to the industry would affect

not only the government and the economy but also the Ethiopian people. Negative impacts to
 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
3
Ethiopia’s agricultural industry also have the potential to exacerbate food security for a nation

that already significantly struggled with poverty and food insecurity.

Now that some background has been provided on the social issue, let's examine the issue

more comprehensively. Alterations in climate change patterns, due to climate change, such as

higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, and increased rainfall variability affect Ethiopia’s

agricultural industry by significantly reducing crop yields and reducing food security for the

poor. A study conducted by Zerihun Kelbore, an economist at the World Bank Group, illustrated

the specific negative effects of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture by showing how climate

patterns impact crop yields (Kelbore, 2012).

The study tracked crop yields for the three most utilized and important crops within the

Ethiopian agriculture industry which are teff (an Ethiopian grain used in Ethiopian cuisine),

wheat, and maize or corn. Kelbore’s research found that the percent change for Ethiopian crop

yields of teff, wheat and maize in 2010 were 28.42, 28.3, and 57.44, respectively (Kelbore,

2012). In 2050, Kelbore predicted that the percent change for Ethiopian crop yields of teff, wheat

and maize would decrease to -2.43, -6.21 and 10.84, respectively (Kelbore, 2012). Through this

data, we now gain specific examples of how climate change can wreak havoc upon Ethiopia’s

agricultural industry.

In addition to significantly reducing crop yields for some of the most used crops within

Ethiopia’s agricultural industry, climate change also causes a number of additional issues that

threaten the well being of Ethiopian agriculture. These negative effects include changes in soil

moisture, land and water condition, change in frequency of fire and pest infect, and the

distribution of diseases (Gezie, 2019). Analyzing the effect that climate change has on

pathogens, increases in temperature and variations in rainfall patterns will increase the
 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
4
population and ranges of certain agricultural pests and water-borne pathogens. Looking at

climate change’s impact on soil, climate change affects the physical properties and carbon pool

of the soil making it more susceptible to erosion. It also affects the quality of the soil which

could have even more disastrous effects than soil erosion because it would limit the ability of

crops to grow and agricultural productivity in general (Gezie, 2019).

Regarding historical context, the continued population growth at a national level (for

Ethiopia) and globally that has occured for centuries is a significant factor in why climate change

has affected Ethiopia’s agricultural industry as bad as it has. Ethiopia and the global community

as a whole are in a situation where their populations are rising at an exponential rate. According

to the Central Intelligence Agency’s world factbook, Ethiopia’s total fertility rate is at 4.91

children born per woman which is a notable increase from the global average of 2.5 children

born per woman (Central Intelligence Agency, 2019). Looking at the global community, the

global population is expected to grow from 7.7 billion in 2019 to 9.7 billion in 2050.

The large population growth that’s been occurring has put the global community in a

unique position where the agricultural industries of the world need to come up with new and

innovative changes to food production in order to account for the growth in population.

Connecting this specifically to what’s going on in Ethiopia, farmers within Ethiopia’s

agricultural industry are having to utilize production processes that harm the environment in

order to keep up with rapidly increasing population growth. While older and primitive techniques

and processes used by Ethiopian farmers have contributed to the issue, the introduction of newer

and more harmful processes such as the use of GMO crops have only exacerbated the problem.

Rapid population growth has put the Ethiopian agricultural industry in a tricky situation where
 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
5
they must decide whether it is worth it to keep up with population growth at the expense of

making climate change even worse and thus harming their own citizens’ quality of life.

The primary key topic of my social issue would be how climate change and the

alterations to climate patterns that result from climate change harm the agricultural industry by

significantly decreasing crop yields. The data from Kelbore’s research illustrates this topic and

how climate change altered traditionally positive crop yields into mostly negative crop yields

that threaten the future of Ethiopia’s agricultural industry. Going back to how dependant the

Ethiopian people and Ethiopian economy is on the agricultural industry, the harm caused by

climate change could negatively affect the approximately 85% of Ethiopians that rely on the

industry for work and the Ethiopians that rely on the industry for food security. And considering

Ethiopia and its people already struggle mightily with food insecurity issues, climate change has

the potential to not only affect the agricultural industry but also most if not all of the Ethiopian

population.

The next key topic regarding this social issue is that climate change in Ethiopia threatens

the employment and financial well being of Ethiopian citizens which will have disastrous effects

on the Ethiopian economy. The biggest problem with climate change and the alterations in

climate patterns that are a result of it, is that it makes it nearly impossible to predict weather

patterns related to seasons such as winter. This is detrimental to the agricultural industry because

farmers rely on climate pattern predictions in order to know when to properly protect their crops

against the upcoming season.

Farmers not being able to know when seasonal and weather changes will occur means

that crops are significantly more susceptible to damage from any upcoming seasons. This means

that large amounts of crops could be destroyed by seasonal weather which will result in
 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
6
enormous financial losses for farmers that can barely afford to survive as it is. Large scale losses

in the agricultural industry not only affect the farmers but also the Ethiopian economy as a whole

due to the countries unusual reliance on its agricultural industry. According to research done by

Gezie, approximately 42% of Ethiopia’s output comes from agriculture and agriculture

contributes to 90% of Ethiopia’s national exports (Gezie, 2019). This topic illustrates how the

social issues is not only an issue at an individual level but also a governmental level as it could

seriously damage what is already a fragile economy.

The last key topic that is pertinent to this social issue is the social effects related to

climate change and its effect on Ethiopia’s agricultural industry. Approximately 84% of

Ethiopian people live in rural areas where educational and occupational opportunities are

extremely hard to come by if not possible (Gezie, 2019). Because of this issue, many of those

Ethiopians rely on the agricultural industry for not only employment but also a way to earn an

income and survive. Considering the country struggles mightily with poverty, forcing any part of

the 85% of people employed through agriculture to find employment in other industries could

have disastrous effects on poverty and the social climate of the nation.

There are two main viewpoints in this social issue that hold differing opinions of whether

population growth and development or climate change and preventing its effects are more

important. One viewpoint within this social issue is that the effects of climate change on

Ethiopian agriculture are not entirely negative but rather necessary in order to develop and keep

up with the global community’s rapidly expanding population. This viewpoint functions as

essentially a climate denier view where people downplay if not outright ignore the negative

effects of climate change on agriculture. The main concept of this viewpoint is that the negative

effects of climate change are a necessary byproduct of developing as a nation as well as keeping
 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
7
up with the rapidly expanding national population and that we must learn to adapt with issues

like climate change if Ethiopia hopes to develop into a developed nation.

The problem is, with all of the developed countries and the rest of the global community

showing little if any willingness to reduce climate change in their region, people who are of this

viewpoint are having their beliefs backed up at a global level. Oftentimes developed and first

world nations such as the United States downplay their role as a role model for developing and

third world countries such as Ethiopia but their lack of action (due to corporate influence) is what

fuels viewpoints such as this one. The problem with this viewpoint is that, while Ethiopia may

need to momentarily harm their agricultural industry in order to keep up with their nations fastly

growing population, damage to the agricultural industry as harmful as its projected to be (based

on research from Kelbore) is unnecessary. While decreases in crop yields are acceptable as

agricultural processes need to grow and be increased in order to keep up with population growth,

decreasing crop yields to the point where a majority of them are negative will do more harm than

good.

Another interesting element to this viewpoint and the other viewpoint on this matter is the

human rights element of the issue. Looking at this viewpoint, one could argue that rapid growth

of Ethiopia’s agricultural industry and acceptance of climate change effects are necessary in

order to not infringe upon Article 25 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Article 25

states that everyone is entitled to an adequate standard of living through adequate providal of

necessities such as food, water and clothing (United Nations, 1948). By limiting agricultural

growth and stopping the industry from accounting for population growth, the argument can be

made that it would be impossible for the Ethiopian government to guarantee the standard of

living mandated by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
8
The other viewpoint within this social issue is that the effects of climate change on

Ethiopia’s agricultural industry are not a normal byproduct of development and that the issue

needs to be corrected immediately. The main argument for this viewpoint is that the societal and

economic damage that climate change and damage to the agricultural industry has the ability to

inflict upon Ethiopians will do more harm than good. This viewpoint maintains that, while

Ethiopia must take steps to grow their agricultural processes in order to adjust to population

growth, the damage that is projected to occur because of current processes is not worth it for

Ethiopia.

While small scale damage to the industry is necessary to adjust to population growth, the

large scale damage projected by Kelbore is not normal and should not be accepted no matter how

large the population is expected to increase. Analysing the human rights perspective of this

viewpoint, this viewpoint also argues that the current agricultural system is a violation of Article

25 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The argument would be that the current

agricultural system infringes upon Article 25 because it exacerbates food insecurity and poverty

issues within Ethiopian society that limit the ability of Ethiopia’s population to obtain an

adequate standard of living.

There are a multitude of different resolutions for this social issue that could significantly

improve the situation surrounding the issue. The first resolution would be to utilize crop

diversification which would help farmers avoid total crop failure and lower expenses while

making agricultural processes more adaptable to change (Gezie, 2019). Tree planting is another

effective way to resolve the social issue as it would significantly reduce climate change

throughout Ethiopia. Trees can absorb carbon dioxide from an environment before it goes into

the atmosphere so that carbon dioxide can’t then trap heat within the atmosphere and increase the
 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
9
temperature and climate pattern variability within the Earth’s climate system. Tree plantings is

also an extremely effective resolution to the social issue because the roots of trees protect the soil

from erosion, lessen damage from floods and droughts, and decrease temperature. Another

interesting resolution to the social issue is the relocation of crops such as coffee further uphill in

order to slightly mitigate the effects of climate change on the crops (Moat et al., 2017).

In terms of actions and resolutions that have been and should be used at a governmental

and processes level, an extremely effective resolution would be to utilize government subsidies

to mitigate agricultural losses and breathe life back into the industry. Using government

subsidies to alleviate the financial losses that farmers will endure would eliminate the

exacerbation of issues such as food insecurity and poverty that have arisen due to the effect that

climate change has had on the agricultural industry. This is because farmers would no longer

have to worry about how many crops they should plant, due to climate variability, which will

allow the food production of the agricultural industry to not falter which would mean the food

insecurity and poverty issues of Ethiopia would not be worse than they already are.

A significant reason why climate change effects can hurt Ethiopia’s agricultural industry

so bad is because the processes used by the industry are extremely traditional and lack

modernness which makes the processes extremely ineffective (Gezie, 2019). With this in mind,

effective solutions towards this social issue would almost certainly have to improve agricultural

processes by making them more modern. One resolution to this specific issue of agricultural

processes would be to utilize irrigation more which would help protect crops from various

seasons as well as droughts. According to Gezie, only 1% of cultivated land within Ethiopia is

irrigated which is incredibly alarming as irrigation is one of the most used techniques by more

modern agricultural processes in other nations (Gezie, 2019). Irrigating more of Ethiopia’s land
 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
10
would would alleviate the main problem that farmers are facing due to climate change which is

climate variability because it would allow the farmers to better protect against certain seasons

and weather patterns.

The last resolution that would be effective in lessening the impact of the social issue

would be for farmers to utilize soil and water conservation more. A key effect of climate change

on Ethiopia’s agricultural industry is soil erosion and soil degradation so utilizing more soil and

water conservation techniques would rehabilitate and protect agricultural fields. This resolution

would go a long way toward ensuring that not only crops have a better chance of surviving

climate variability but also the agricultural fields themselves have a good chance at staying

healthy and surviving.

While there hasn’t been any social action or movements for climate change in africa

specifically, there has been a more broad climate change movement throughout the global

community that has the ability to significantly affect the social issue in Africa. The climate

movement is a movement that began primarily in the 21st century but its roots can be traced back

to the 1990s. The movement first began in the 1990s when environmental organizations joined

global discussion of climate change through the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change. In the early 2000s the movement started to gain attention and more

organizations and people joined the fight against climate change but the movement didn’t receive

national attention until 2009. During the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in

Copenhagen, the movement organized a march in Copenhagen that mobilized approximately

70,000 people and called for global action against climate change. In 2014, the movement

mobilized approximately 400,000 in New York through the Peoples Climate March which urged
 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
11
leaders participating in the 2014 UN Climate Summit to take action against climate change

(Alter, 2014).

In recent times, the movement gained a huge boost when environmental activist Greta

Thunberg received global attention for spending her school days striking outside of Swedish

Parliament. Her actions managed to inspire children and students in more than 270 towns and

cities across the global community to participate in school strikes against climate change. In

2019, the movement managed to make its biggest statement yet by organizing the Global

Climate Strike, a strike that mobilized more than 7.6 million people across 185 countries to

protest in the streets and call for action against climate change (About, n.d.).

The main tactics used by the climate movement are protests, group mobilization, and

school strikes. These tactics have resulted in more than 5,400 rallies and demonstrations

throughout the global community and the mobilization of more than 8 million people worldwide

(Greene, 2016). One of the most significant outcomes of the movement to this day is that leaders

of the movement, such as Bill McKibben, were able to get the Democratic Party to adopt

language in their national platform that called for “WWII-scale climate mobilization” (Greene,

2016). In terms of the different actors involved, climate change activists such as Bill McKibben

and Greta Thunberg and protests are one group of actors that have continually fought for action

that reduces climate change and creates a more sustainable planet. Another group of actors

would be the individuals who want climate change to continue, which in this case would be

corporations and politicians because they both can achieve financial gains from the presence of

climate change. Corporations gain from climate change by being allowed to use destructive

processes that maximize profit margins and politicians gain from climate change through

corporate lobbying which some within the political community have described as legal bribery.
 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
12
Tactics used by the climate movement are a great example of the local action that we can

take against climate change and the effect that its had on Ethiopian agriculture. Organizing

protests is a great way to take local action against this social issue because it has the ability to

bring national attention to the issue and also influence public opinion concerning the issue.

Through protests done by the climate movement, the movement was able to go from a small

debate that did not involve the global population to one of the biggest discussions in the global

community at the moment.

The problem with climate change related issues, such as the effect that its having on

Ethiopian agriculture, is that they often times don’t receive enough attention and people are

unaware of how impactful and damaging the problem can be. So, through protests that highlight

how climate change exacerbates food insecurity and poverty issues in Ethiopia, more people

throughout the global community will have a better idea of the true magnitude of the problem.

The thing is, once people have an understanding of just how serious climate change can be,

they’re significantly more likely to join the fight against climate change. Connecting this to the

issue that’s occurring in Ethiopian agriculture, once people understand just how serious the

situation is in Ethiopia people will become more likely to take local action against the issue.

With what's going on in Ethiopia specifically, more people throughout the global community

will be inspired to take action against the issue because of the human rights and livelihood

problems that the issue presents for the people of Ethiopia.

The second way in which we can take local action against the effect that climate change

is having on Ethiopian agriculture is by making a multitude of more sustainable choices and

making our choices more eco friendly. The first specific way in which we can make our local

lifestyles more eco friendly, which would improve the climate situation in Ethiopia, would be to
 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
13
forego the usage of fossil fuels (Biello, 2007). The burning of fossil fuels, such as oil, is by far

the biggest reason why climate change has been able to effect Ethiopian agriculture so much

because it releases toxic greenhouse gases into the atmosphere that causes climate issues such as

climate variability. Eliminating the use of fossil fuels is extremely difficult because many

methods end up being counterproductive in that they increase a person's carbon footprint in some

way. A great way to limit or eliminate the use of fossil fuels would be to use plant-derived

plastics, biodiesel and wind power when possible (Biello, 2007).

Another local action that we can take to improve the issue of climate change and its effect

on Ethiopian agriculture would be to limit or eliminate our usage of transportation sources such

as cars and planes (Biello, 2007). The usage of those transportation methods release a substantial

amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere which contribute significantly to the increases

in temperature and rainfall variability that have wreaked havoc upon Ethiopia’s agricultural

industry. This location action specifically would entail switching from harmful transportation

methods such as cars and planes to more eco friendly methods such as cycling, walking, mass

transit, telecommuting, and the usage of trains for longer distance traveling. These local actions,

if implemented by the global community, would substantially improve the climate change effects

that are harming the Ethiopian agricultural industry.

Another local action that can be taken to improve the situation in Ethiopia would be to eat

smarter by having a better diet such as a vegetarian diet. Switching diets to a vegetarian diet is a

great way to reduce the effects of climate change because meats such as chicken, beef, or pork

require pounds of feed and a production process in general that releases harmful greenhouse

gases into the atmosphere. Taking corn out of your diet is another way to take local dietary

action against the issue as barrels of oil are needed for the fertilizer needed to grow corn and for
 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
14
the diesel fuel that harvests and transports the corn (Biello, 2007). According to Biello,

University of Chicago researchers concluded that each meat eating American produces 1.5 tons

of greenhouse gases through their choices of food (Biello, 2007).

In terms of local action that the people of Ethiopia can take to limit the effect of climate

change on their agricultural industry, the primary action would be to only have one child per

family. As we’ve talked about previously, the rapid population growth has put Ethiopia in a bad

position where they must damage their own agricultural industry through non eco friendly

agricultural processes in order to keep up with the population growth. By keeping their families

to only one child, Ethiopian citizens could have a profound local effect on the issue because the

agricultural industry would, after a while, no longer have to account for rapid population growth.

This would mean that the agricultural industry in Ethiopia could shift their focus from sustaining

a growing population to improving agricultural processes in order to make the industry more

efficient and cost effective. Implementation of this local action would go a long way towards

allowing the Ethiopian agricultural industry to have the opportunity to develop and modernize

their traditional agricultural processes which would have numerous positive effects on the effect

that climate change has had on agriculture.

Throughout this paper we’ve explored how climate change has had numerous negative

effects on Ethiopia’s agricultural industry. These negative effects include substantial decreases in

crop yields, significant economic losses, and the potential to reduce and eliminate employment

and income of a significant portion of Ethiopian society. Through the research conducted by

Gezie, the prediction was able to be made that climate change could turn traditionally positive

crop yields into negative crop yields. Climate variability could cause significant economic losses
 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
15
as it will cause enormous crop losses and agricultural damage has the potential to substantially

reduce income for those who depend on the agricultural industry as their primary occupation.

The viewpoints concerning the social issue are based around the argument of whether

account for rapid population growth or reducing climate change effects are more important for

the Ethiopian people and the Ethiopian economy. The different resolutions that have and will

continue to positively affect the issue include crop relocation, crop diversification, tree planting,

government subsidies, an increase in usage of irrigation, and soil and water conservation. The

climate movement is a popular social movement that will directly improve the social issue in

Ethiopia by reducing global climate change which will lessen its impact on Ethiopian agriculture.

The most effective local action that we can take to positively affect the social issue that’s

occurring in Ethiopia would be to hold protests and attempt to influence public opinion as well as

make more sustainable and eco friendly choices in order to limit the effect of climate change.

These choices include foregoing the use of fossil fuels and eliminating the usage of harmful

transportation methods such as cars and planes. The suggested location action for the people of

Ethiopia would be to self impose a one child policy in order to decrease population growth so

that the Ethiopian agriculture industry can focus on developing more eco friendly and sustainable

processes. The effect that climate change is having on Ethiopian agriculture presents a serious

social issue that could worsen food insecurity and poverty issues if both local and international

communities don’t collaborate and take action against climate change.

 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
16

References

About. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://globalclimatestrike.net/about/.

Alter, C. (2014). NYC: People's Climate March Demands U.N. Action on Global

Emissions. Retrieved from

https://time.com/3415162/peoples-climate-march-new-york-manhattan-demonstration/.

Biello, D. (2007). 10 Solutions for Climate Change. Retrieved from

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/10-solutions-for-climate-change/.

Central Intelligence Agency. (2019). Ethiopia. The World Factbook. Retrieved from

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/et.html

Gezie, M. (2019). Farmer’s response to climate change and variability in Ethiopia: A review.

Cogent Food & Agriculture, 5(1), 1613770.

Greene, R. (2016). Beyond Paris: Finding the Courage to Face the Climate Emergency.

Retrieved

from

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/07/19/beyond-paris-finding-courage-face-cl

Imate-emergency.

Kelbore, Z. G. (2012). An analysis of the impacts of climate change on crop yield and yield

variability in Ethiopia.

Moat, J., Williams, J., Baena, S., Wilkinson, T., Gole, T. W., Challa, Z. K., ... & Davis, A. P.

(2017). Resilience potential of the Ethiopian coffee sector under climate change. Nature

plants, 3(7), 17081.

Simane, B., Beyene, H., Deressa, W., Kumie, A., Berhane, K., & Samet, J. (2016). Review of
 Running head: Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture
17
climate change and health in Ethiopia: status and gap analysis. Ethiopian Journal of

Health Development, 30(1), 28-41.

United Nations. (1948). Universal declaration of human rights. UN General Assembly, 302(2).