5/16/2020 Could Assad row with cousin tear down Syrian regime?

| World news | The Guardian

Could Assad row with cousin tear down Syrian regime?

Power struggle between Bashar al Assad and first cousin sparks rare family fissure and leaves public
aghast

Martin Chulov Middle East correspondent

Sat 9 May 2020 05.00 BST

A
defiant tyrant and his ruthless wife square up against the family oligarch, with the
spoils of a nation at stake. It could be standard Ramadan television fare, but not this
year. Instead, all the intrigue of Syria’s ruling family has been laid out in a spectacular
real-life drama that has gripped the country and the region.

Leading the cast is the Syrian leader, Bashar al-Assad, and Syria’s first lady, Asma al-Assad, but
star billing has so far been taken by the president’s first cousin, Rami Makhlouf, who last week
took to Facebook to do the unthinkable: air the normally inscrutable family’s dirty laundry.

Makhlouf, Syria’s most powerful tycoon and its richest man throughout Assad’s 20-year reign,
complained that his cousin was sending secret police to seize his assets and shutter his
businesses. In doing so, he laid bare a power struggle that now threatens the very existence of the
Syrian regime, sparking a fissure in the ruling Alawite sect, and leaving regular Syrians aghast.

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Without a hint of irony, Makhlouf boasted of bankrolling Syria’s infamous security forces, who
have tortured and disappeared thousands of people in nine years of war, then complained that his
employees had been treated in “an inhumane way”.

“We were all shocked at that,” said Monir Nabilsi, a lawyer from northern Syria. “Even my Alawite
friends. Though his tone was reverential to Bashar, his words had meaning. He and the Makhloufs
ran the finances of the country, while the Assads ran politics and security. That was the pact. Now
what?”

Makhlouf’s two videos were widely mocked for a tone lacking in awareness and content that
bordered on parody. But in the days since, more public statements from powerful Syrians have
cast the appearances in a different light. One, Firas Tlass, the son of a former defence minister,
appeared on the Moscow-owned TV network Russia Today to confirm that Makhlouf was directly
taking on the president’s wife and brother, Maher.

“He repeatedly tells Bashar not to let ‘others’ squander the money as they’re for the poor,” said
Tlass. “By others he meant Asma and Maher. Rami’s words managed to cause a rift within Assad
supporters. They still all support the regime but some are supporting Rami questioning why the
president is doing this to his cousin. This is unprecedented.”

Rami Makhlouf took to Facebook to air the normally inscrutable

family’s dirty laundry. Photograph: Facebook

Makhlouf’s bold statements and Tlass’s candour have led supporters and foes of the regime to
suggest that Russia, a prominent stakeholder in Syria and nominally a supporter of Assad, is
sponsoring the discord. In the weeks before Makhlouf appeared, Russian officials spoke of their
disappointment with the Syrian leader, with two former diplomats suggesting he had made few
moves towards a political solution – a prerequisite to the cash cow of reconstruction, which
Moscow has long awaited. The diplomats also lamented the performance of the Syrian army on
the battlefield, claiming Assad had largely been saved from defeat by 25 Russian jets.

On Friday, Assad supporters pushed back, questioning the effectiveness of Russian-supplied anti-
aircraft missiles that have done nothing to stop frequent Israeli attacks on Iranian targets inside
Syria. Social media posts by Assad backers complained that Vladimir Putin imposed political
solutions on Syria but sent little food aid.

“Assad has managed to create an army of Assadists,” said Tlass. “They’re not only Alawites,
they’re from every sect. It is a very scary fact.”

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Across Syria, divining truths from the extraordinary drama has become a pastime during the holy
month, in which observant Muslims fast during daylight hours and often feast at night.
Makhlouf’s whereabouts have been central to guessing games. Members of his family suggest he
is taking refuge on the coastline near his ancestral village of Bustan al-Basha. Suggestions earlier
in the week that Assad had arrested his cousin were unfounded.

“Even so, he has put his wife – a trained investment banker – up against him,” said one member of
the Alawite clan, living in exile outside Syria. “Whoever backs down now loses. It’s a big thing for
Bashar to do and an even bigger turning for Rami. Bashar wants the keys to the treasury. But he
has to take on the Makhloufs and Putin to get them.”

To many, the real-life House of Assad is proving just as remarkable as the imaginary version
speculated about in secret over decades. “There are shakedowns, mistresses, assassinations, and
palace intrigue,” said Fadi Nourallah, an industrialist from Aleppo living in southern Turkey.
“Everything we thought might be true is true, and more.”

Some, including Tlass, see the current machinations as a potential precursor for a changing of the
guard, something that Russia has remained determined to avoid through the war – particularly
since it formally joined the fray in September 2015.

“Those who say there is no alternative to Assad obviously just want him to remain in power,” said
Tlass. “Russia is the one in power here, it can create a group of five army generals to oversee an
election for a transitory government whenever it wants.”

Even so, risking yet more instability that would likely follow from a change of power is something
Russia seems unwilling to do. In the meantime, the three-way game of brinkmanship between
Assad, Makhlouf and maybe Russia is nearing new ground.

“The Assad-Makhlouf families do not care about rebuilding Syria. They want to wear everyone
out and remain in power,” said Tlass. “There is no political life in Syria; there is only command
and obey.”

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Topics
Syria
Bashar al-Assad
Middle East and North Africa
Asma al-Assad
Russia
Europe
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