Geostrategic importance of Indian Ocean and challenges for Pakistan maritime security

Outline
 1. Introduction

The Indian Ocean is the third-largest of the world's oceanic divisions,cover 19.8% of the water on the
Earth's surface. It is bounded by Asia to the north, Africa to the west, and Australia to the east. To the
south it is bounded by the Southern Ocean or Antarctica. “ The Indian ocean region had become the
strategic heartland of the 21st century, dislodging Europe and North East Asia which adorned this
position in the 20th century…the developments in the Indian Ocean region were contributing to the
advent of a less Western centric and a more multi-polar world.”

2. Geostrategic importance

The Indian Ocean has emerged as a critical maritime space in the Asia-Pacific littoral in view of the
transformed strategic, security and economic significance of the region. The Indo-Asia-Pacific region is
the greatest maritime-littoral space that has the largest concentration of population, resources,
developing economies, congested sea lanes, and contested territorial spaces. It is thus significant in a
geo-political, geo-economic and geo-strategic sense. The Indian Ocean is home to many choke points,
such as the Straits of Hormuz, Straits of Malacca, Lombok and the Sunda Straits. The Indian Ocean and
the states on its littoral are of significant and growing importance. The region contains 1/3 of the world’s
population, 25% of its landmass, 40% of the world’s oil and gas reserves. The region is home to most of
the world’s Muslim population as well as India, one of the world’s likely “rising powers.” The Indian
Ocean also is home to the world’s two newest nuclear weapons states, India and Pakistan, as well as
Iran, which most observers believe has a robust program to acquire nuclear weapons

I. The Oil Factor

The Indian Ocean has seen intense maritime activity for the past 600 years, primarily for trade. Persian
Gulf contains 65 per cent of the world’s proven reserves and accounts for more than half of the world’s
oil exports and almost all of Asia-Pacific’s imports. Due to growth in global economy the worldwide
demand for oil imports from the gulf is expected to grow and this fact is most critical while considering
geo strategic significance of Indian Ocean. Despite efforts by nations to diversify sources, disruption of
oil supplies is bound to impact severely on national economies leading to inflation and widespread
unemployment. The US, Europe, China, Japan, India and most of Southeast Asian nations are heavily
reliant on oil from the Gulf. In his State of the Union address in Feb 2006, President Bush said that the
nation was “addicted to oil.” U.S. gross oil imports from the Persian Gulf were 2.2 million bbl/d during
2006, accounting for 17 percent of the US total net oil imports . The importance of energy to India,
China and Japan is also extensive. At current levels of consumption, the oil import dependence of India
is expected to reach 82.2 percent by 2010 and 91.6 percent by 2020. In the case of China it will be 61
percent and 76.9 percent, while for rest of South Asia it will be 95.1 percent and 96.1 percent
respectively.

II. Sea Lines of Communications(SLOCs)

a) The economic development
The economic development of a state is closely linked to its trade and energy supply. Since most of the
trade of the Indian Ocean littorals and the South Asian states is seaborne, SLOCs form the lifeline of
these countries. According to World Bank estimates, in 1999 the world seaborne trade was pegged at
21,480 billion ton-miles; it is expected to reach 35,000 billion ton-miles in 2010, and 41,800 billion ton-
miles in 2014. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Report, “Review of
Maritime Transport 2000”, notes that world sea-based trade recorded its fourteenth consecutive annual
increase, and Asia’s share of imports and exports was 26.1% and 18.8 % respectively

b) To a military analyst

The SLOCs are related to the maritime instruments of power, and maritime geography becomes the
pivot on which forces must be deployed. To a politician, on the other hand, SLOCs signify the state of
relations with countries located along the sea route traversed, while for an economist it is just the
shortest and most economical travel distance between two destinations. Similarly, for some nations
multilateral cooperation on SLOC security may mean a perceived intrusion into aspects of sovereignty.
Thus the security of sea lanes requires comprehensive strategies encompassing differing perceptions
and national interests of concerned states

c) World’s trade

The Indian Ocean provides major sea-routes connecting the Middle East with Europe, East Asia, Africa
and US. The following routes are the most significant ones in the Indian Ocean and their closure would
result in choking the global energy supplies:-Suez Route. Suez route links Mediterranean Sea with the
Red Sea through Suez Channel. An important choke point in this route is Bab-al-Mandeb which connects
Red Sea to Arabian Sea. One-third of the world’s trade and almost all of East Asia’s oil amounting nearly
to 9.4 million barrels of oil per day pass through these straits. Exports from West Asia utilize the Strait of
Hormuz. Imports to South Asia from West Asia utilize the Strait of Hormuz. According to EIA estimates,
the Strait recorded a transit volume of 15.4 million barrels of oil per day in 1998. Closure of the Strait of
Hormuz practically cuts off Gulf supplies to the East altogether and also affects the West considerably.
Similarly, the closure of the Straits of Malacca, through which nearly 9.4 million barrels of oil per day
flow (according to the EIA), can seriously threaten the economies of Southeast Asia and the energy
intensive economies of China and Japan. Due to the geostrategic importance of Malacca Straits to
almost all the South and Southeast Asian countries, any maritime contingency in this traffic congested
region would have profound security ramifications.

III. Natural Resource Wealth

The Indian Ocean is known to contain natural resources, the significance of which has yet to be fully
determined [15] . Other than the oil in the gulf, the Indian Ocean holds 65 per cent and 31 per cent of
world’s strategic raw minerals and gas respectively. Large occurrences of hydrocarbons are being
trapped in the offshore deep bedrocks of Saudi Arabia, Iran, India, and Australia. Beach sands rich in
heavy minerals and deep sea polymetallic nodules are actively exploited by bordering countries,
particularly India, South Africa, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. The Bay of Bengal is known to hold an
immense wealth of resources in terms of fossil fuels, minerals and fish stocks. The discoveries of huge
gas reserves in the Krishna-Godavari basin has added to the known potential of the area. The A&N island
chain itself is known to bear substantial hydrocarbon reserves. It is only a matter of time that offshore
platforms, similar to those at the Bombay High, would sprout in these waters. Its fish are of great and
growing importance to the bordering countries for domestic consumption and export.

3. Strategic Importance of IO for Extra Regional Forces

I. United States of America
II. Russia

The initial deployment of Soviet Navy in the Indian Ocean was governed by need for a reciprocal
arrangement with littoral states that would assist its attempt to break through Western containment of
its long southern flank. Soviets developed their facilities in Ethiopia and South Yemen close to Bab-al-
Mandeb [12] . In 1979 the Soviets signed an agreement with Vietnam for a 25 year lease of base at Cam
Ranh Bay close to Malacca straits. Russian government continued the lease of Cam Ranh Bay primarily
for SIGINT activities in South China Sea. At the end of 25 year period, Russia decided to withdraw from
Cam Ranh Bay. Its presence in other erstwhile bases is also on the decline.

III. China:

China’s entry in the Indian Ocean region, through economic investments, political influence, and military
presence along the Maritime Silk Road is significantly altering regional dynamics. It has spurred India-
China rivalry, which overlaps with US-China competition. Japan, Australia and other regional actors are
increasingly concerned. In order to protect its economic investments along the Silk Road, we can expect
China to increase its military footprint in the Indian Ocean. The 2015 Defense White Paper establishes
China’s ambition to become a major maritime power and expands the Chinese navies’ duties from
“offshore waters defense” to “open seas protection” for the first time. This indicates that China has
interests beyond the South China Sea, particularly securing its trade routes and access to natural
resources in the Middle East and Africa, on which China it is critically dependent. China is also setting up
port projects along vital SLOCs as part of the Maritime Silk Road, a long section of which passes through
the Indian Ocean. It has ongoing projects in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, Djibouti, Kenya,
and Tanzania. The ‘dual use’ of these ports for commercial and military purposes is an emerging trend in
the Indian Ocean. For example, Colombo, Gwadar, and Djibouti have been used to refuel or station PLA
Navy (PLAN) ships.

Challenges to Pakistan’s maritime security

The challenges to Pakistan’s maritime security in the Indian Ocean during the last decade have led to
different dimensions, which are significant from both national and international perspectives. These
challenges for maritime security fall under the aegis of both traditional and non-traditional aspects

Traditional

Non-traditional