1

INTRODUCTION

One morning a professor sat alone in a bar at a conference. When his colleagues joined him
at the lunch break they asked why he had not attended the lecture sessions. He replied by
saying, ‘If I attend one session I miss nine others; and if I stay in the bar I miss all ten ses-
sions. The probability is that there will be no statistically significant difference in the benefit
that I obtain!’ Possibly a trite example, but statistics are relevant in most areas of life.
The word ‘statistics’ means different things to different people. According to Mark Twain,
Benjamin Disraeli was the originator of the statement ‘There are lies, damned lies and statis-
tics!’ from which one is supposed to conclude that the objective of much statistical work is
to put a positive ‘spin’ onto ‘bad news’. Whilst there may be some political truth in the state-
ment, it is generally not true in science provided that correct statistical procedures are used.
Herein lies the rub! To many people, the term ‘statistics’ implies the manipulation of data to
draw conclusions that may not be immediately obvious. To others, especially many biologists,
the need to use statistics implies a need to apply numeric concepts that they hoped they had
left behind at school. But to a few, use of statistics offers a real opportunity to extend their
understanding of bioscience data in order to increase the information available.
Microbiological testing is used in industrial process verification and sometimes to provide
an index of quality for ‘payment by quality’ schemes. Examination of food, water, process
plant swabs, etc. for microorganisms is used frequently in the retrospective verification of
the microbiological ‘safety’ of foods and food process operations. Such examinations include
assessments for levels and types of microorganisms, including tests for the presence of specific
bacteria of public health significance, including pathogens, index and indicator organisms.
During recent years, increased attention has focused, both nationally and internation-
ally, on the establishment of numerical microbiological criteria for foods. All too often such
criteria have been devised on the misguided belief that testing of foods for compliance with
numerical, or other, microbiological criteria will enhance consumer protection by improv-
ing food quality and safety. I say ‘misguided’ because no amount of testing of finished prod-
ucts will improve the quality or safety of a product once it has been manufactured. There
are various forms of microbiological criteria that are set for different purposes; it is not the

Statistical Aspects of the Microbiological Examination of Foods

Copyright © 2008 by Academic Press. All rights of reproduction in any form reserved. 1

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 2 STATISTICAL ASPECTS OF THE MICROBIOLOGICAL EXAMINATION OF FOODS

purpose of this book to review the advantages and disadvantages of microbiological criteria –
although statistical matters relevant to criteria will be discussed (Chapter 14).
Rather, the objective is to provide an introduction to statistical matters that are important
in assessing and understanding the quality of microbiological data generated in practical situ-
ations. Examples, chosen from appropriate areas of food microbiology, are used to illustrate
factors that affect the overall variability of microbiological data and to offer guidance on the
selection of statistical procedures for specific purposes. In the area of microbiological meth-
odology it is essential to recognize the diverse factors that affect the results obtained by both
traditional methods and modern developments in rapid and automated methods.
The book considers: the distribution of microbes in foods and other matrices; statistical
aspects of sampling; factors that affect results obtained by both quantitative (e.g. colony
count and most probable number (MPN) methods) and quantal methods; the meaning of,
and ways to estimate, microbiological uncertainty; the validation of microbiological meth-
ods; and the implications of statistical variation in relation to microbiological criteria for
foods. Consideration is given also to quality monitoring of microbiological practices and
the use of Statistical Process Control for trend analysis of data both in the laboratory and
in manufacturing industry.
The book is intended as an aid for practising food microbiologists. It assumes a minimal
knowledge of statistics and references to standard works on statistics are cited whenever
appropriate.

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