ROTIC 2019 CONFERENCE OCT-15-17 DUBAI

Reliability is a Measure of Perfection; The Road to

Perfect Machines Theory and Case Histories
Abdulrahman Alkhowaiter: Machinery Consultant at Saudi Aramco 20/10/2019
 Introduction: Who Needs Machinery Reliability?

Machinery Reliability Is still not fully understood. The first formula giving insight into reliability was the
Product law of Series Reliability of Components: R-Total = R1 x R2 x R3 x R4 x…….Rn Discovered in 1942.
We have much to learn…...There are still unknown reliability formulas and concepts to uncover.
The Eurocopter EC-225 Twin Engine 24 Seater Helicopters had eight failures of the main drive gearbox since
2009 with at least three fatal until the manufacturer performed a correct failure analysis. The MGB gear shaft
failures were caused by fatigue cracks of the weld joining the bevel gear with the lower vertical shaft driving
the gearbox oil pumps. It is noteworthy that other manufacturers also suffer from MGB gearbox failures.
The hollow shaft life was reduced by the thin 4.5 mm wall, residual weld stress, stress concentration in the
weld area, and by corrosion pits. With the high shaft rotation speed of 2405 RPM, the shafts fatigued and
sheared. Major reliability improvement was by a new design with higher wall thickness and integral gear-shaft.
 Introduction: The Interaction of Reliability with Failure Mechanisms Is an
Important Study Area to Achieve Extreme Reliability

Further Insight into General Machinery Reliability:

1. The machine components R1, R2, R3…..Rn any of which can lead to reduction of the Total Reliability have dropped
below 1.0 because a failure mechanism or mechanisms have reduced its specific component lifetime.
2. All machines carry mechanical failure modes and mechanisms inherent to machinery; they can be active or can be
inactivated by superior design, manufacturing, installation, maintenance. This will be elaborated further.
3. If the Failure mechanisms are permanently inactivated, then Failures = Zero and Reliability is Infinite; The Perfect
Machine is achieved. Permanent inactivation requires a detailed analysis of what prevents failure.
4. Reliability is our Friend; and Failure is not our friend but is the Teacher of How Things Fail.
5. The Failure of components by a single failure mechanism is not one-dimensional; Failure mechanisms interact
with each other multiplying the effect and increasing the failure rate. Primary mechanisms create secondary ones.
Reliability is a Measure of Perfection; The Road to Perfect Machines and The
Five Root Causes of Failure

Machines Fail Exclusively From the Following Five Root Cause Categories:

1. Manufacturing Design Errors: The below Turbogenerator rated 600 MW suffered catastrophic damage from fatigue
fracture of a single LP blade which then sheared fifteen more at 3000 RPM causing extreme unbalance.
2. Manufacturing Defects: Machining, Casting, Forging, Welding, Assembly.
3. User Specification Errors and Installation Errors.
4. User Maintenance Deficiencies including PM: Notice the weeds growing in the second picture.
5. User Operational Defects or Abuse.

There are no other possibilities. The above are applicable to the smallest machines in the home and to the largest 1000
MW Turbogenerator trains in Power Plants. These Root Causes are all controlled by human positive action or error.
 Machines Fail Due to Failure Mechanisms Inherent in The Machine:
These Mechanisms are the Mice Causing all Failures

The Ten Universal Mechanical Failure Modes Lead to Discrete Failure Mechanisms:

1. Lubrication Breakdown: Main components affected are bearings, seals, and sliding
contact. Examples include degraded or contaminated lubricant, loss of lubricant…..
2. Excessive Vibration: Covers all vibration induced failures of machine components.
3. Corrosion-Adhesion: Machinery failures resulting from surface molecular action.
4. Erosion-Wear: Includes abrasive wear, fretting, scuffing, and galling.
5. Foreign Object Damage: Failures from ingesting an internal-external object either solid or
liquid.
6. Sealing Failure Static And Dynamic: Includes all failures resulting from loss of sealing
ability.
7. Excessive Thermal Growth-Degradation: Failures due to temperatures exceeding design
limits.
8. Locking-Holding Mechanism Failure: Failures in assembled components, joint loosening.
9. Improper Internal Geometry: Failures from loss of design geometric component
alignment.
10. Material Overstress: Refers to breakdown attributed to material structural failure.

The author discovered in 2007 that the failure mechanisms are much like mice living
inside a machine. The secret to attaining extremely high machinery reliability is in finding
the visible and invisible mice and developing Design, Manufacturing, Installation, and
Maintenance improvements to remove them. Each of the above failure modes have a
number of discrete failure mechanisms.
 Additional Explanations For Why Machines Fail
Perfect Machines are Free of All Mice

The Perfect Machine has no Inherent failure mechanisms strong enough to cause parts and component Failures. It
will run forever. The Big Mouse Theory of Machinery Unreliability:

 If there are ten mice in a machine and we catch nine of them, it should operate much more reliably and plenty of
cheese available. That is in Theory….
 But if the tenth mouse is a big mouse then the solution will fail. No more cheese. Size matters…..
 Another problem: The mice are many kinds, some visible and others invisible.
 These Four x 200 KW Diesel Generators in Marine Service failed with MTBO of 3.0 Months.…
 How did the mice get inside the machine…..Must be a detective to find out, they are not sitting on a shelf……
 A very high reliability machine still has some mice but they are extremely small.
Failure Mechanisms are Internal and Must be Removed From the Machine by
Improved Design-Manufacturing-Maintenance

Root Cause Analysis Relies Upon Correct Failure Analysis of the Damaged Machine:

1. Cylinder Head: This six cylinder engine uses a low camshaft with Valve Lifters, Rods, and Rocker Arms. These
were failing by fatigue catastrophically and the engineers had to go backward to find what is the true cause.
Complicating the matter: The OEM had changed the design of the spare part Lifters and Rockers.
2. Lubrication Mouse: The lube oil was a 15W-40 Multi Viscosity Oil: We theorized that Fuel-Lube oil and additives
polymerized with heat into a very gummy substance which then caused mechanical overload on valve rocker
assemblies causing cracking from fatigue. In those days also had high Sulfur content Fuel.
3. The engines used to operate with 12,000 Hrs MTBO and now only 2200 Hrs. The mouse was removed by changing
lubrication oil from CF-4 Multi Viscosity to straight SAE-40 oil which has no polymer additive. Result: Reached
10,000 Hrs. average MTBO for the four engines.
4. In this case we examined both possibilities of inferior new spare parts and oil lubricant, but concentrated on the
more obvious oil defect since this mouse was far easier to deal with. The user was satisfied.
 Total Reliability Analysis Resolves Feed Gas 32000 HP Turbine
25 Years High Shaft-Bearing Vibration Failures

Must Find & Eliminate Design, Manufacturing, Maintenance, Installation Defects:

1. Four x 32000 HP and 6000 RPM API-612 mechanical drive turbines installed 1982. They are all historically
bad actor machinery but worst is KT-221. Machines suffer from frequent high vibration above 3.5 mills,
frequent radial and thrust bearing vibration failures-overheating, and steam packing gland leakage. KT-
221 MTBF is only 4 Months. MTBO is 3.0 Years.
2. In 2012-2013 the four turbines unreliable shaft driven Mechanical-Hydraulic governors were replaced by
Electronic Governors with Electric Actuators. Major control reliability improvement occurred.
3. Make it Perfect: The author took the challenge in 2018 as a reliability exercise. Requires a complete
breakdown history analysis, detailed failure analysis of the turbine when disassembled, and knowledge of
how vibration is generated in machinery. A perfectionist attitude is absolutely necessary.
Feed Gas 32000 HP Turbine Failures: The Mice Are Uncovered and Removed

In-house Design-Manufacturing-Installation Improvements achieved 1.50 mills max vibration [Alarm 3.0 Mills]:
1. Turbine vertical stiffness increased: Modifying the casing flex plates from original 0.38 inch to 0.50 inch thick
steel plates. The turbine support stiffness is increased by 75% giving higher resistance to rotor excitation.
2. Inboard bearing damping improved by reduction of diametral clearance from OEM 0.014 to 0.010 inches. Inboard
bearing oil film damping increase of + 200%. The original design clearance was far from optimum.
3. Outboard Bearing housing misaligned. The casing to bearing connection bolts are 2.0 inch diameter, heavily
corroded including bushings. New Bolts & Nitronic-50 SS Tighter Bushings.
4. Internal Misalignment: Inboard bearing found 0.017 inch low which caused major rotordynamic defects. Casing
found offset by 0.007 inch on top-bottom casing dowels. These caused Labyrinth seal rubs; another mouse.
Corrected by welding and line bore machining to 0.002 inch concentricity tolerance.
5. Bearing housings: Loose clearance fit with both bearings by horizontal 0.0037 inch. Machined to zero horizontal
and 0.003 inch cold crush vertical. Damping Improved additional + 200%.
6. Performed field machining of the skid footing to eliminate all soft footing. Resolved inboard bearing housing 4.0
inch oil drain flange severe pipe strain. This had twisted the bearing housing.
7. Coupling Alignment: New innovative alignment method with reverse dial indicator and Laser moves corrected
long term OEM figures off by 0.050 inch actual. The DBSE is 21.0 Inches.
8. The turbine inlet and exhaust piping were given a 0.25 inch flange gap cold to compensate for thermal growth.
9. Result is almost perfect: Smooth operation; Inboard 1.0 Mills & Outboard 1.50 mills. From Feb-2019 to Oct-2019
no changes in vibration, major reduction in steam leakage. No bearing overheating.
10. To Make more perfect: For the three sister machines 2020 repairs: Will add reduction of outboard bearing
clearances by 0.004 inch to obtain higher damping and reduce vibration. What is perfect for a 32000 HP Turbine?
Steady 1.0 mills shaft vibration for 10 years. Note: The Lubricant was already optimum ISO-VG-46 viscosity oil.
 Reliability Analysis Resolves Feed Gas 32000 HP Turbine
Finding Out Where Did The Mice Come From!

Reliability Analysis of the KT-221 Failure Mechanisms and attributing them to actual Root Causes of Failures:

1. Manufacturing Design Errors: Incorrect vertical stiffness Flex Plates, Incorrect tilting pad radial bearing design
clearances, wrong coupling alignment figures. We added unusual bearing crush to compensate housing thermal
growth. Note: OEM had stiff integral rotor which is good but other Design-Man defects damaged rotor stability.
2. Manufacturing Defects: Major manufacturing errors of heavily misaligned inboard and outboard bearing housing
plus casing dowels, all bearings loose in housings, uneven skid plates height under turbine feet. Bearing failures
not lube oil related in most cases. These defects also caused high steam leakage which contaminates lube oil.
3. Specification and Installation Errors: None.
4. Maintenance Deficiencies: Bearing housing oil drain piping flange strain.
5. Operational Defects: Incorrect turbine warm up procedures on a few occasions. No other issues.
 Reciprocating Gas Compressors Reliability Improved by
Implementing Design Changes That Eliminate Most Failure Modes
Reciprocating Gas Compressors Are Unreliable: Typically 0.50 to 1.0 Years Best MTBF

1. Must Think Outside the Box; Not the convention of attacking failure symptoms. No true mechanical
design reliability studies made by Petroleum-Petrochemical users.
2. Detailed study of reciprocating compressor historical failures at Saudi Aramco and Worldwide in 2000 to
2004. Implemented new 2003 & 2009 standards requiring design and manufacturing improvements that
excluded most failure mechanisms found…or mice.
3. STD Changes: High reliability valve design-materials, piston rod locking and wear coatings, reduced
discharge temp limit, superior oil cooler materials, vibration protection, valve temperature monitoring,
piston rod materials. API-618 introduced some reliability improvements.
 Refinery Compressors Reliability Improved After 2005
Implementing Design Changes That Eliminate Most Failure Modes

Reliability Improved by Implementing Design Changes That Eliminate the Failure Modes: Mice Prevention

1. Derating Principle: Allowable discharge temperature reduced to 275 DegF for Non-Lubricated & Hydrogen
Services, 310 DegF for Lubricated. This extends life of piston rings, wear rings, valve metal and polymer parts.
2. Fatigue & Looseness Failures: Piston rod threaded connections looseness eliminated by Hydraulic Tensioned or
Flanged rod connection to Crosshead, and Hydraulic fits to piston. From 2.25 inch OD rods and above.
3. Resisting Wear Failure: Piston Rods required to be Tungsten Carbide Coated to Rockwell-C 55 hardness.
4. Cylinder Valve Failure: Enforced Concentric Ring Design valves with thermoplastic rings as these were proven
600% higher MTBF during testing on 1990’s compressors. Later required Hardened Stainless Steel valve seats.
5. Lubrication Failure: Cylinder lubrication oil reservoir 72 Hrs capacity versus API-618 of 24 Hrs.
6. Monitoring: Permanent Vibration and Valve Temperature Monitoring required for 500 HP rating and above.
 Removing Failure Mechanisms Eliminates Failure Modes:
New Reliability of 6.5 Years MTBF is 650% Improvement

Reciprocating Gas Compressors After 2005 Highly Improved: Achieved 5.0 to 8.0 Years MTBF Depending on Vendor
1. Yanbu Refinery V-11-K106 A,B NEA 650 KW 2-Stage H2 Make-Up units installed 2006. They are Non-Lubricated
Cylinder type and MTBF is 6.5 years on A machine & 10.0 on B machine. The A had packing gland failure in 2014
and coupling failure in 2015. No valve failures.
2. The B had lower operating hours and finally overhauled in 2016 due to loss of performance. Found worn cylinder
liner and damaged plastic piston-rider rings. No PM parts replacement from 2006 to 2016 except Lubrication.
3. Direct driven by Low speed Motor. We can attribute 75% of the reliability improvement to new standard and OEM
design-manufacturing. Remaining 25% reliability increase attributed to non-design factors: High quality
Installation, Maintenance PM Lubrication, no foreign object damage liquid-solid from piping.
 Three x 2000 HP Centrifugal Freon Refrigeration Compressors
New Reliability 5.0 Years Expected MTBF is 2000% Improvement
Centrifugal Refrigeration Compressors at 7500 RPM: Typical 0.25 Year MTBF and 1.0 MTBO Since 1983
1. Machines had multiple failure mechanisms: Some are visible at disassembly and others are invisible mice
requiring deep study. High shaft vibration, Bearing severe rub failure, Shaft rub failure, internal parts
fatigue failures…… M-Seal 0.25 MTBF. Numerous mice of varying sizes.
2. No failure mechanisms attributed to wrong operation, wrong maintenance or installation.
3. Detailed study of compressor design and failure mechanisms, then development of innovative design
changes and re-manufacturing solutions to overcome failure.
4. Results: First machine upgrade in 2000 gave 2.5 year MTBF and 5.0 years MTBO. In 2018 more experience
and study led to final design below; ten upgrades. Vibration 1.50 mills since Jan-2019. Alarm 3.0 mills.
 New Water Injection Centrifugal Pump 20,000 HP at 3000 PSIG
Installed 2012: Manufacturer Achieves 8.0 Years MTBF
Reliability out of the box. This Japanese pump manufacturer attempted and succeeded to build an extremely
reliable multistage 20,000 HP centrifugal injection pump as the primary design principle in 2008 to 2011.
1. Must Think Outside the Box: Manufacturer decided to outperform competitors by achieving extremely
high reliability in design, manufacturing, and installation. Made detailed analysis of reliability factors.
2. Detailed study of injection pumps historical failure modes at various worldwide locations and vendors;
made a list of mice to eliminate: Improved Rotordynamic design, High Fluid dynamic efficiency plus high
strength and corrosion resisting impeller materials. Applied integral design principle to some parts.
3. Installed at Saudi Aramco Oil Company: From Jan-2012 to October-2019: Extremely efficient, No high
vibration, No Bearing issues, No M-Seal failures, No impeller issues, No rubs, Noise, or significant
internal wear. Why no failures and where are the mice?
 Conclusion: Near Perfection of Machinery and Extreme Reliability
Is Possible by Improved Design-Manufacturing-Installation

Real World Examples show that machines are failing far below our technical capabilities:

1. Extreme Reliability of machinery is possible….almost perfect can be acheived.

2. New ideas in reliability analysis and failure analysis are needed to go forward.
3. Conventional reliability improvement methods are haphazard with slow improvement in industries.
4. It is valuable for the user to perform an in-house comprehensive reliability analysis with improvements.
5. Motivated and skillful manufacturers have design and manufacturing abilities to produce extremely
reliable machinery. High reliability requires creativity and a perfectionist attitude.
6. It is true that mice are the source of machinery failure...! Remove them and machines cannot fail…..