BOOKS ET AL.

ECONOMICS decades of such movements, more than 50

percent of China’s population remains rural.
To Close the Gap The number in India is even higher, around 70
percent, and Spence suggests that India will
likely experience massive urbanization in the
Charles I. Jones next two decades. Echoing a point that Paul
Romer has explored creatively in recent years,

I
f the time since modern humans first either facilitate or hinder growth in coming urban infrastructure appears to be a crucial
appeared, some 200 thousand years ago, decades: globalization, financial investment, ingredient to sustained growth (4).
were magically compressed into a sin- the Washington consensus, climate change, In concluding, Spence acknowledges the
gle day, the era of sustained growth in liv- urbanization, politics, exchange rates vola- uphill battle that economic progress faces.
ing standards would occupy only the most tility, information technology, and the finan- “Getting there from where we are now will
recent minute and a half. Prior to this emer- cial crisis. (The only notable absence is a dis- be difficult. Political, business, and academic
gence (around 1800), living standards were cussion of problems related to government elites have lost credibility with the populace
low and did not vary enormously throughout debt, on display in Europe today and associ- in many countries. We have been wrong about
the world—perhaps by a factor of 2 accord- ated with rising entitlement spending in the important characteristics of the economy that
ing to numbers compiled by the late econo- United States in the future.) Economics does affect people’s lives, and relatively insensitive
mist Angus Maddison (1). The emergence not always offer precise, unequivocal pre- to distributional issues.” But engaging, intel-
of modern economic growth in some parts scriptions regarding each of these topics, but lectual treatments like this one will surely
of the world but not others has caused living having Spence as a brilliant guide, intimate make progress easier.
standards to diverge dramatically. By the end with both the research and policy frontiers, is
References
of the 20th century, the ratio a perfect way to get up to speed. 1. A. Maddison, “Statistics on world population, GDP, and
of per capita gross domestic The Next Convergence It is impossible to summarize per capita GDP, 1–2008 AD” (March 2010); available at
product (GDP) in the rich- The Future of Economic such a wide-ranging book in a brief www.ggdc.net/MADDISON/oriindex.htm.
2. www.growthcommission.org.
est countries exceeded that Growth in a Multispeed review. Instead, let me discuss a 3. W. A. Lewis, The Theory of Economic Growth (Allen and
in the poorest by more than World few of the highlights. First, Spence Unwin, London, 1955).
a factor of 50. emphasizes that economic growth 4. P. Romer, “For richer, for poorer.” Prospect (Lon-
Michael Spence takes by Michael Spence is tied fundamentally to innova- don), 167 (January 2010); www.prospectmagazine.
Farrar, Straus and Giroux, co.uk/2010/01/for-richer-for-poorer/.
this history as his point tion and knowledge. Openness to
New York, 2011. 312 pp.
of departure in The Next international trade and globaliza- 10.1126/science.1214409
$27, £17.99.
Convergence: The Future ISBN 9780374159757.
tion is one of the strongest corre-
of Economic Growth in a lates of economic growth in the ENGINEERING
Multispeed World. Looking data because it facilitates access to
toward the future, he foresees a convergence knowledge. Imagine the standard of living in
between the economies of the world’s rich any single country if it had never encountered
Low Costs and
and poor countries. That is, he believes that ideas invented elsewhere in the world. Considerable Gains
the current dynamics of economic growth, Second, Spence provides a careful,
accompanied by the right policies and institu- nuanced discussion of the role of government Esther M. Sternberg
tions, can lead to a new period of substantial in economic growth. Quoting the famous

F
catch-up by the poor countries. development economist Arthur Lewis, “gov- ormerly subsistence economies are
Spence, a highly regarded economist ernments may fail either because they do developing rapidly while highly devel-
at New York University’s business school, too little, or because they do too much” (3). oped nations are experiencing wide-
shared the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics Some kind of economic freedom is central to spread unemployment and poverty. Design
for work involving the microeconomics of growth. Spence notes that Chinese economic with the Other 90%: Cities provides hope
imperfect information—how markets func- growth was spurred when Deng Xiaoping and that both extremes can come together to
tion when some participants know more than other reformers allowed the market mecha- help lift the underprivileged out of poverty
others. There is a certain distance between the nism to work in agriculture, permitting farm- through creative design. Organized by the
author’s prize-winning research in microthe- ers to sell the excess of their production over Smithsonian Institution’s Cooper-Hewitt
ory and the applied macroeconomic topics of their planned quotas on open markets. How- National Design Museum under the direc-
concern in the book. That distance is closed ever, democracy is evidently not a neces- tion of Cynthia Smith (the museum’s curator
by a combination of Spence’s economic train- sary ingredient for economic success, as the of socially responsible design), the exhibi-
ing, his decade as the dean of Stanford Uni- example of China also indicates. Instead, what tion is at the United Nations headquarters—
versity’s business school, and his most recent appears to be essential is a government that a most appropriate venue for spotlighting
service as the chair of the independent Com- creates an environment in which investment design solutions that have been instituted by
mission on Growth and Development (2). by the private sector is profitable. more than 60 projects in 23 countries around
The book provides a fascinating tour Lastly, Spence highlights a well-known the globe. As one of the designers notes,
of the global economic issues that may association between urbanization and eco- humans need food, water, and shelter to live.
nomic growth. He describes China as need- The show points the way to cost-effective
ing to build a new Los Angeles every year to
The reviewer is at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford
University, 655 Knight Way, Stanford, CA 94305–4800, accommodate its annual flow of 15 million The reviewer is the author of Healing Spaces: The Science of
USA. E-mail: chad.jones@stanford.edu people from the countryside. Yet despite three Place and Well-Being. Web site: www.esthersternberg.com

906 18 NOVEMBER 2011 VOL 334 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org

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