Probability Theory

and its application

Failure rate
𝑅𝑅 𝑡𝑡 = 𝑒𝑒 −𝜇𝜇𝜇𝜇
• R = reliability
• µ = failure rate, constant
• t = time

𝑃𝑃 𝑡𝑡 = 1 − 𝑅𝑅 = 1 − 𝑒𝑒 −𝜇𝜇𝜇𝜇
• P = failure probability
1
MTBF =
𝜇𝜇
• MTBF = the time interval between two failures (Mean Time Between
Failures)
 Interactions between process units
• Accidents in chemical plants are usually the result of a
complicated interactions of a number of process components.
• Process components interactions
1. Process failures requires the simultaneous failure of a number of
components in parallel. Usage of AND function. Multiply failure
probabilities.
𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛

𝑃𝑃(failure probabilities) = � 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖 𝑅𝑅(total reliability) = 1 − � 1 − 𝑅𝑅𝑖𝑖

𝑖𝑖=1 𝑖𝑖=1
2. Process failures as a result of a failure of any single component
in the series of components. Usage of OR function. Multiply
reliabilities
𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛

𝑅𝑅(overall reliability) = � 𝑅𝑅𝑖𝑖 𝑃𝑃(overall failure probabilty) = 1 − � 1 − 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖

𝑖𝑖=1 𝑖𝑖=1
Failure rate data for various selected process
components
 Example 1

Flow control system. The

components of the control
system are linked in series.

The water flow to a chemical reactor cooling coils is controlled by the system
shown above. The flow is measured by a differential pressure device, the
controller decided on an appropriate control strategy and the control valve
manipulates the flow of coolant.
Determine the reliability, the unreliability, the overall failure ratefor this system
and the mean time between failures (MTBF) for this system. Assume 1-yr
period of operation.
Component Failure rate, µ Reliability Failure probability
(faults/year) −𝝁𝝁𝝁𝝁 𝑷𝑷 = 𝟏𝟏 − 𝑹𝑹
𝑹𝑹 = 𝒆𝒆
Control valve 0.60 0.55 0.45

Controller 0.29 0.75 0.25

DP cell 1.41 0.24 0.76

1. Overall reliability
𝑛𝑛

𝑅𝑅(overall reliability) = � 𝑅𝑅𝑖𝑖 = 0.55 0.75 0.25 = 𝟎𝟎. 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏

𝑖𝑖=1

2. The unreliability (failure probability)

𝑃𝑃 = 1 − 𝑅𝑅 = 1 − 0.10 = 𝟎𝟎. 𝟗𝟗𝟗𝟗/yr

3. The overall failure rate, µ

𝑅𝑅 𝑡𝑡 = 𝑒𝑒 −𝜇𝜇𝜇𝜇
0.10 = 𝑒𝑒 −(𝜇𝜇)(1) = − ln 0.10 = 𝟐𝟐. 𝟑𝟑𝟑𝟑 failures/yr
4. The MTBF
1 1
MTBF = = = 𝟎𝟎. 𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒 yr
𝜇𝜇 2.30
 Example 2
A diagram of the safety systems in a certain Pressure
chemical reactor is shown in Figure 1. This reactor Switch
contains a high-pressure alarm to alert the operator Alarm P P
at P > I
in the event of dangerous reactor pressures. It
I
A C
PA
consists of a pressure switch within the reactor
Reactor
connected to an alarm light indicator. For additional Feed
safety an automatic high-pressure reactor shutdown
system is installed. This system is activated at a Solenoid
pressure somewhat higher than the alarm system Valve

and consists of a pressure switch connected to a

solenoid valve in the reactor feed line. The
automatic system stops the flow of reactant in the
event of dangerous pressures. Compute the
following for high-pressure condition. Assume a 1-
year period of operation. Reactor

1. Overall failure rate

Figure 1
2. Failure probability

3. Reliability

4. MTBF
Hints
1. Find the R, P, µ and MTBF of the following:
a) The alarm system components work in series.
b) The shutdown system components also work in series
c) The alarm and feed shutdown systems are linked on parallel.

2. The overall failure probability is 𝑃𝑃 = 𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴 𝑃𝑃 𝑆𝑆 . A = alarm and S = shutdown

𝑛𝑛
3. Alternatively 𝑃𝑃(overall failure probabilty) = 1 − � 1 − 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖
𝑖𝑖=1

𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴 = 𝑃𝑃1 + 𝑃𝑃2 − 𝑃𝑃1 𝑃𝑃2

𝑃𝑃 𝑆𝑆 = 𝑃𝑃3 + 𝑃𝑃4 − 𝑃𝑃3 𝑃𝑃4
𝑃𝑃 = 𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴 𝑃𝑃 𝑆𝑆 = 𝑃𝑃1 + 𝑃𝑃2 − 𝑃𝑃1 𝑃𝑃2 𝑃𝑃3 + 𝑃𝑃4 − 𝑃𝑃3 𝑃𝑃4
FTA
Before the actual fault tree is drawn, below are some preliminary steps that must
be taken.
1. Define precisely the top event. Damage to reactor as a result of overpressure.
2. Define existing event. What conditions are sure to be present when the top
event occurs? High pressure process.
3. Define the unallowed events. These are the events that are unlikely or are not
under considerations at the present.
Failure of mixer, electrical failures, wiring failures, natural disaster.

4. Define the physical bounds of the process. What are the components that
need to be considered. Given in the diagram.
5. Define the equipment configurations. What valves are open or closed?
Solenoid valve.

6. Define the level of resolution. Will the analysis consider just a valve, or will it be
necessary to consider the valve components? Given in the diagram.
 FTA
Draw the fault tree for Figure 1. The top event is damage to reactor as a
result of overpressure.
Determine the overall Reactor overpressure
failure probability using the
various logic gate.

Failure of Alarm Failure of Emergency

Indicator Shutdown

Pressure
Pressure
Pressure indicator
Pressure switch 1
indicator light
switch 1 failure
light failure
failure
failure
FTA
Determine the minimal cut sets.
1. Label all the gates using letters
2. Label all the basic events using numbers.
3. Key:
– AND gates increase the number of events
– OR gates lead to more sets.
 Determine the overall failure probability
using the minimal cut sets.
Minimal Cut Sets
Reactor overpressure

Failure of Alarm Failure of Emergency

Indicator Shutdown

B C

Pressure
Pressure
Pressure indicator
Pressure switch 1
indicator light
switch 1 failure
light failure
failure
failure

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