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Thayer Vietnam's Next Defence Minister
Thayer Vietnam's Next Defence Minister
It is my assessment that General Phung Quang Thanh will remain on the Politburo of
the Vietnam Communist Party and continue as Minister of National Defence.
This is a two step process. First, General Phung must be elected to the party Central
Committee at the eleventh party congress to be held next week. I see no problems
here.
Secondly, General Phung will have to become a successful candidate in the May
2011 elections for the National Assembly. There is no doubt he will be re‐elected. He
would then have to be re‐nominated by the prime minister to the defence portfolio.
This nomination will have to be approved by the new party Central Committee
before being formally put to the National Assembly deputies for confirmation. I see
no problems for General Thanh here either.
There has been speculation in the media and on blog sites that LT GEN Nguyen Chi
Vinh, presently one of the deputy ministers of national defence, will replace General
Thanh and gain a seat on the Politburo. Some reports have insinuated that I am the
source for such speculation. This is not the case. Here is my assessment which has
been constant for over the past year:
The next minister of national defence after General Phung will be a person who has a
career in the combat arms, who has commanded a military region and served in a
higher position such as chief of the general staff or as deputy minister. Lt Gen Vinh
lacks these credentials.
Lt Gen Vinh has been outstanding in his role as deputy minister in promoting
Vietnam’s international defence cooperation. He was the person who took
responsibility for the thirty or more ASEAN‐defence related meetings hosted by
Vietnam as ASEAN chair in 2010. His major accomplishment was to host successfully
the inaugural meeting of the ASEAN Defence Ministers Plus Eight meeting as well as
the ancillary ASEAN Defence Senior Officials Meeting and ASEAN Senior Officials
Meeting Plus Eight.
The military in Vietnam holds one position on the Politburo and that is held by the
current Minister of National Defence. There are no indications I am aware of that
this number will be increased.
2
In order for LT GEN Vinh to gain a seat on the Politburo he must first be elected to
the Central Committee. It is reported that he is an army delegate to the national
party congress. The military is customarily awarded about ten percent of seats on
the Central Committee. I would expect LT GEN Vinh to be elected to the Central
Committee. But his career in military intelligence – rather than combat arms ‐ would
seem to rule him out of the post of minister of national defence.
LT GEN Vinh could very well carry on as deputy defence minister with added
responsibility for international defence cooperation. He might possibly be a
candidate to head the General Political Department if and when a vacancy occurs.