PROBABILITY THEORY

Random Experiment

A random experiment is an experiment in which

(i) All outcomes of the experiment are known in advance

(ii) Any performance of the experiment results in an outcome, which is not known in advance
(iii)The experiment can be repeated any no. Of times

A particular performance of the experiment is called a trial and the possible outcomes are called
events or cases.

For example,

1) Suppose a coin is tossed. There are two sides for the coin namely head and tail. The two
possible outcomes are H and T. We cannot predict the outcome in a trial and the experiment
can be repeated any no. of times
2) Suppose a die is rolled. The possible outcomes are the numbers 1, 2,3,4,5 and 6. We cannot
predict the outcome in a single trial and the experiment can be repeated any no. of times.
3) A standard pack consists of 52 play cards. There are 13 each spades, clubs, hearts and
diamonds. Suppose a card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of cards. We do not know the
outcome of a particular trial. The experiment can be repeated any no. of times.

Equally Likely Cases

The cases of an experiment are said to be equally likely when we have no reason to expect one
outcome in preference to another.

For example,

1) Suppose a fair coin is tossed. Both the sides H and T are equally likely.
2) As a counter example, consider a box containing 7 white balls and 4 black balls. Suppose a
ball is drawn from the box. The drawn ball may be either white or black. But the outcomes
are not equally likely.

Mutually Exclusive Cases

The cases of an experiment are mutually exclusive if the occurrence of any one of them
prevents the occurrence of all others.

For example,

1) In throwing a single die, occurrence of an even no. prevents occurrence of an odd no. in the
same trial.
2) As a counter example, consider the events of drawing a spade card and an ace card from a
pack of 52 cards. The two events are not mutually exclusive because drawing a spade card
does not prevent drawing an ace (because we have ace of spade).

Exhaustive Cases

The total no. of cases in an experiment are called exhaustive cases.

Eg: When 3 coins are tossed together, the exhaustive cases are HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT,
TTH and TTT.

Favourable Cases

The no. of cases favourable to the happening of an event are called favourable no. of cases.
Eg: In the problem of rolling a die, the cases favourable to the event ‘getting an even number’ are the
numbers 2, 4 and 6.

Sample Space ( Universal Set)

Let S be the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment. Then S is called a sample space.
Each element of S is called a sample point or elementary event.

Eg: Suppose a coin is tossed continuously till a head appears. Then the sample space is S = {H, TH,
TTH, TTTH ...}

A statistical event is a subset of the sample space S. In fact, all subsets are not events. The set Φ is an
impossible event and S is a sure event.

Complement of An Event

The complement of an event A is the set of elements of the sample space which are not elements of A.
This is usually denoted by Ac or A’.

Eg: In rolling a die, suppose A is the event of all even numbers. Then A c = {1,3,5}.

Union of Two Events

Let A and B be any two events. Then the event of all elements belonging to either A or B is called
union of And B and is denoted by AUB.

Eg: Let A = {1,2,3,4,5,6} and B ={2,4,8,10} then AUB = {1,2,3,4,5,6, 8,10}

Intersection of Two Events

The intersection of two events A and B is the event of all the points which are common in both A and
B.

Eg: Let A = {1,2,3,4,5,6} and B ={2,4,8,10} then A Ŋ B = {2,4}

Suppose A and B are any two events defined on the same sample space.

1) AUB stands for at least one of the events. i.e, either A or B or both.
2) AŊB stands for occurrence of both A and B.
3) Ac stands for non-occurrence of A.
4) Ac ŊBc stands for non-occurrence of both A and B.
5) A ŊBc stands for occurrence of A and non-occurrence of B.
6) AŊB=Φ means that A and B are mutually exclusive.
7) AUB=S means that A and B are exhaustive.