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Aquatic Procedia 4 (2015) 892 – 899

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON WATER RESOURCES, COASTAL AND OCEAN

ENGINEERING (ICWRCOE 2015)

Probable maximum precipitation estimation for catchments in

Mahanadi river basin
Sagar Rohidas Chavana*, V. V. Srinivasa
a
Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science,Bangalore-560 012, India

Abstract

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is a theoretical concept that is widely used by hydrologists to arrive at estimates for
probable maximum flood (PMF) that find use in planning, design and risk assessment of high-hazard hydrological structures such
as flood control dams upstream of populated areas. The PMP represents the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration
that is meteorologically possible for a watershed or an area at a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term
climatic trends. Various methods are in use for estimation of PMP over a target location corresponding to different durations.
Moisture maximization method and Hershfield method are two widely used methods. The former method maximizes the
observed storms assuming that the atmospheric moisture would rise up to a very high value estimated based on the maximum
daily dew point temperature. On the other hand, the latter method is a statistical method based on a general frequency equation
given by Chow. The present study provides one-day PMP estimates and PMP maps for Mahanadi river basin based on the
aforementioned methods. There is a need for such estimates and maps, as the river basin is prone to frequent floods. Utility of the
constructed PMP maps in computing PMP for various catchments in the river basin is demonstrated. The PMP estimates can
eventually be used to arrive at PMF estimates for those catchments.
© 2015
© 2015TheTheAuthors.
Authors.Published
Publishedbyby Elsevier
Elsevier B.V.B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
Peer-review under responsibility of organizing committee of ICWRCOE 2015.
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of organizing committee of ICWRCOE 2015
Keywords:Hershfield method; Moisture maximization method; PMF;PMP

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +91 80 2293 2641; fax: +91 80 2360 0404.
E-mail address:chavansr@civil.iisc.ernet.in

2214-241X © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of organizing committee of ICWRCOE 2015
doi:10.1016/j.aqpro.2015.02.112
 Sagar Rohidas Chavan and V.V. Srinivas / Aquatic Procedia 4 (2015) 892 – 899 893

1. Introduction

In hydrometeorology, reliable estimate of design storm is necessary for catchments contributing flow to large
scale hydrological structures such as flood control dams that are located upstream of thickly populated areas.
General practice is to determine design storm/precipitation event using probabilistic approach which involves fitting

Nomenclature

PMP Probable Maximum Precipitation

WMO World Meteorological Organization
PMF Probable Maximum Flood
AMP Annual Maximum Precipitation
CFSR Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction
SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission
DEM Digital Elevation Model
GEV Generalized Extreme Value
a frequency distribution to the observed extreme precipitation data pertaining to the target catchment and then
calculating the quantiles corresponding to various return period (non-exceedance probability) values. The
probabilistic approach assumes that the estimate has a possibility of getting exceeded at least once in a time span
(generally in years) equal to the return period. Thus, any amount of precipitation is expected to have a particular
return period or probability of exceedance. Contrarily, probable maximum precipitation (PMP) concept assumes that
the estimate of PMP is so large that the possibility of occurrence of a storm event contributing precipitation greater
than or equal to PMP is infinitesimally small. In other words, the PMP estimates are virtually free from any risk
associated with their exceedance.Hence, the PMP concept is widely used by hydrologists to arrive at estimates for
probable maximum flood (PMF) The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) defines PMP as the greatest depth
of precipitation for a given duration that is meteorologically possible for a watershed or an area at a particular time
of year, with no allowance made for long-term climatic trends.
Various approaches are in use for estimation of PMP over a target location corresponding to different durations.
The approachescan be broadly classified as (1) statistical approach that involves statistical analysis of station
observations on extreme precipitation. (2) approach involving maximization and transposition of actual storms, and
(3) storm model approach that involves maximization of physical processes controlling the convective precipitation
at a location. Details on these approaches can be found in Hershfield (1961, 1965), Foufoula-Georgiou (1989),
Rakhecha et al. (1992), Koutsoyiannis (1999), Douglas and Barros (2003), Rezacova et al. (2005), Papalexiou and
Koutsoyiannis (2006), and Cacas et al. (2011). In this study, two methods of PMP estimation namely storm model
approach (moisture maximization method) and Hershfield method (statistical approach) are considered to arrive at
one-day PMP estimatesand PMP maps for Mahanadi river basin, as the basin is prone to frequent floods. Data
available for the river basin were deemed adequate for application of those methods. The former method maximizes
the observed storms assuming that the atmospheric moisture would rise up to a very high value estimated based on
the maximum daily dew point temperature. On the other hand, the latter method is a statistical method based on a
general frequency equation given by Chow et al. (1988). Both methods can provide reliable PMP estimates for a
target gauge location or grid point (Rezacovaet al., 2005). The PMP estimates obtained based on this study were
used to construct PMP maps for Mahanadi river basin and their utility in computing PMP for various catchments in
the basin is demonstrated. The PMP estimates can eventually be used to arrive at PMF estimates for those
catchments.
The remaining part of this paper is organized as follows. Background on PMP estimation approaches, which are
considered in this study, is provided in the following section. Subsequently, description of the study area and results
obtained from application of the approaches to the study area are presented and discussed. Finally concluding
remarks are provided.
894 Sagar Rohidas Chavan and V.V. Srinivas / Aquatic Procedia 4 (2015) 892 – 899

2. Background on PMP estimation approaches

Amongst the available approaches to PMP estimation, two most widely used approaches include the storm model
approach and the Hershfield approach. The formerapproachemphasizes on maximization of the meteorological
conditions at the target (grid) location that effect occurrence of extreme storm events, while the latter approach
depends entirely on the statistical analysis of past observations on storm events at the target location. In the present
study, both approaches are used to determine one-day PMP estimates corresponding to various grid locations in the
basin. Details regarding both the approaches are presented in the subsequent sub-sections.

2.1. Storm model approach (moisture maximization method)

The storm model approach involves maximizing the meteorological conditions (e.g., moisture content or
precipitable water) that control the occurrence of convective precipitation. In this study, precipitable water in the air
column above the target site (grid location) is maximized. Estimate of PMP is based on the following formulation.

Wm
PMP P (1)
W

Where PMP is in mm, P represents observed precipitation depth in mm, W represents precipitable water in the air
column above the target site during the day of storm, Wm represents the maximized precipitable water in the air
column. The estimate of W can be based on following equation (Smith, 1966).

ln W  0.1133  ln  O  1  0.0393Td (2)

Where the term O represents exponent value in power law relationship between moisture profile and height of the
atmospheric column. The value of O depends on latitude of target site and season of the year when the storm has
occurred (London, 1957). Td is surface dew point temperature (in Fahrenheit) corresponding to maximum surface
temperature recorded on the day of the storm, which can be estimated using the following equation when Td records
are not readily available.

§ 17.27T ·
237.3ln  Rh   237.3 ¨ ¸
Td © 237.3  T ¹ (3)
§ 17.27T ·
17.27  ln  Rh   ¨ ¸
© 237.3  T ¹

Where Rh is the relative humidity, and T represents the maximum surface temperature (in degrees Celsius)
corresponding to the day of the storm. The estimate of Wm can be based on following equation.

ln Wm  0.1133  ln  O  1  0.0393Tdmax (4)

When the historical record of Td values is at least 50 years long, Tdmax is considered to be the maximum of
historical Td values corresponding to the month in which the storm has occurred. Otherwise Tdmax is considered to
be quantile estimate of Td corresponding to 100-year return period determined from the historical monthly
maximum values of Td corresponding to the month in which the storm has occurred (WMO, 1986).
 Sagar Rohidas Chavan and V.V. Srinivas / Aquatic Procedia 4 (2015) 892 – 899 895

2.2. Hershfield approach (statistical approach)

Statistical approaches are useful for estimation of PMP when adequate precipitation data are available for the
target location(gauge/grid). Hershfield (1961, 1965) proposed a strategy to estimate PMP values based on frequency
analysis of the series of n annual maximum precipitation values observed at the target location. The approach is
based on the following general frequency equation adapted based on formulation given by Chow et al. (1988).

X M   X n 1
i i ½
km 
i
i 1,!, N °
V ni1 °
°
km
max  i 
Max ª¬ km º¼ ¾ (5)
i 1,!, N °
°
PMP  i  X n   km
max 
i
V ni  i 1,!, N °
¿

i  i  i 
Where X n , X M , and V n denote respectively the mean, the highest value and the standard deviation of the
 i 
series of n Annual Maximum Precipitation (AMP) values; X n 1 ,and V n 1 represent respectively the mean and the
i

i  i 
standard deviation of the AMP series resulting from exclusion of X M ; k m represents the frequency factor
 max 
corresponding to site i , and km is the highest of frequency factors of all gauges/grids in the study area.

3. Description of study area and data

This study considers various locations in Mahanadi river basin for PMP estimation. The basin is bounded in the
North by hills in Central India, in the South and East by the Eastern Ghats and in the West by Maikala hill range.
Total catchment area of the basin is about 1,45,818 km2 spreading over five States viz. Chhattisgarh, Orissa,
Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Maharashtra, of which more than 99% is in Chhattisgarh and Orissa. The basin
frequently experiences flooding during the Indian summer monsoon period (June to September).TheMahanadi river
basin and the locations of 18 stream gauges in the basin considered for the study are shown in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1.Location of Mahanadi river basin and stream gauges considered for the study. + sign indicates the CFSR grid centers over the basin.
896 Sagar Rohidas Chavan and V.V. Srinivas / Aquatic Procedia 4 (2015) 892 – 899

Gridded data on weather variables (precipitation, maximum temperature and relative humidity) were available for
Mahanadi river basin over the period 1979-2010 at a resolution of 38 km from the web site:
http://globalweather.tamu.edu/. The data were based on Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and they were
prepared from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data. The CFSR was designed and executed
as a global, high resolution, coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice system to provide the best estimates.
The locations of CFSR grids falling over the study area are shown in Fig. 1.In addition, Shuttle Radar Topography
Mission (SRTM)Digital Elevation Model (DEM) 90m resolution data corresponding to the study area were
downloaded from the web site: http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/. Catchments corresponding to the stream-gaugeswere
delineated by processing the DEM data using ArcHYDRO tools in ArcGIS framework.

4. Result and discussion

Storm Model approach and Hershfield approach were applied to the CFSR gridded precipitation data in
Mahanadi river basin in order to determine one-day PMP estimates corresponding to the grid locations in the basin.
Results obtained from the analysis were used to construct one-day PMP maps for Mahanadi basin. Details regarding
the application of both the approaches are discussed in the sections 4.1 and 4.2. Subsequently, the PMP estimates
computed based on both the approaches are compared with each other in section 4.3. Finally, utility of the
constructed PMP maps in computing PMP estimates for eighteen catchments in the river basin is demonstrated in
section 4.4.

4.1. Application of Storm model approach

Thirty-two Annual daily Maximum Precipitation (AMP) events were identified from CFSR daily precipitation
data available over the 32 year period (1979 to 2010). Historical daily observations on relative humidity Rh were
available, while those on Td were unavailable over the entire period. Hence, Rh values were utilized to compute
Td values by Eq. (3). The computed Td values were then utilized in Eq. (2) to estimate precipitable water W
corresponding to each of the AMP events.
To arrive at estimate for maximized precipitable water Wm corresponding to each of the 32 events by Eq. (4),
Tdmax was considered to be 100-year quantile estimated based on historical monthly maximum values of Td
corresponding to the month in which the event has occurred, as sample size of the available records was less than 50
years. For this purpose, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was fitted to monthly maximum values of
Td , as the distribution was found suitable based on Kolmogorov Smirnov (KS) test at 95% confidence level. The
value for the power law exponent O was considered to be 3.12,following London (1957).
For each of the CFSR grid points, (i) estimate for P uWm W (shown on right hand side of Eq. (1)) was obtained
corresponding to each of the 32 daily events based on the respective Wm ,W and P values, and (ii) maximum of the
32 estimates was declared as PMP for the grid point. Subsequently, PMP estimates corresponding to all the grid
points were used to prepare PMP maps for the study area, as shown in Fig. 2. It can be noted from the figure that
there exist a considerable spatial variation in the PMP estimates across the basin. The minimum and maximum
values of PMP estimates for entire Mahanadi basin were found to be 23.41cm and 86.63 cm respectively.

4.2. Application of Hershfield approach

The Hershfield approach was applied considering the observations on daily precipitation available for Mahanadi

basin over the period 1979 to 2010. For each grid point i, the mean X n  , and the highest value X M , and the
i i

i 
standard deviation V n of daily precipitation were determined based on the observed data. In addition, the mean
 Sagar Rohidas Chavan and V.V. Srinivas / Aquatic Procedia 4 (2015) 892 – 899 897

X n 1 and the standard deviation V ni1 of the data were computed after excluding X Mi  Then, estimate of PMP
i

corresponding to each of the grid points was determined based on Eq. (5).
 max 
The highest value for km was found to be 8.18. Subsequently, one-day PMP estimates for all grid points were
used to prepare PMP maps for the study area as shown in Fig. 2. The PMP estimates showed a significant spatial
heterogeneity over entire Mahanadi basin. The PMP estimates range from 28.82 cm to 80.31 cm.

Fig. 2. PMP maps for Mahanadi river basin.

4.3. Comparison between one-day PMP estimates based on storm model approach and Hershfield approach

From Fig. (2), it can be noted that there is considerable mismatch in PMP estimates resulting from storm model
and Hershfield approaches. In general, PMP estimates resulting from the use of storm model approach are lower in
the “northern and central parts”, and higher in “eastern part” of Mahanadi basin when compared to the estimates
resulting from the use of Hershfieldapproach .

4.4. Utility of the constructed one-day PMP maps in computing PMP for individual catchments in the basin

Catchment boundary corresponding to each of the 18 stream-gaugesshown in Fig. (1) wasdelineated by

processing the DEM data using ArcHYDRO tools in ArcGIS framework. The catchment boundaries and one-day
PMP map for the Mahanadi basin determined based on each of the approaches were then utilized to extract one-day
PMP maps for individual catchments in the basin, as shown in Fig. (3) for a gauge at Patherdih. Subsequently, one-
day weighted PMP estimate for each of the catchments was computed based on the area covered by the individual
grids in that catchment. The estimates of one-day weighted PMP corresponding to all catchments in Mahanadi basin
898 Sagar Rohidas Chavan and V.V. Srinivas / Aquatic Procedia 4 (2015) 892 – 899

are presented in Table 1. It can be noted that PMP estimates for catchments obtained using Hershfield approach are
consistently higher than the estimates resulting from Storm model approach, except for the catchment corresponding
to gauge at Baronda.

Table 1.One-day PMP estimates for catchments in Mahanadi river basin obtained using Storm model and
Hershfieldapproaches.
S.No. Catchment of Storm Model Hershfiled S.No. Catchment of Storm Model Hershfiled
gauge gauge
(cm) (cm) (cm) (cm)
1 Andhiyarkore 41.77 45.90 10 Kurbhata 32.68 41.43
2 Bamnidhi 33.79 43.89 11 Manendragarh 28.35 36.89
3 Baronda 41.92 39.92 12 Patherdih 34.81 39.22
4 Basantpur 38.08 42.94 13 Rajim 39.33 40.89
5 Ghatora 41.32 48.54 14 Rampur 38.70 41.33
6 Jondhra 39.12 42.91 15 Salebhata 34.99 37.93
7 Kantamal 42.77 45.73 16 Seorinarayana 39.01 42.67
8 Kesinga 44.98 47.19 17 Sundergarh 35.03 41.10
9 Kotni 40.35 44.68 18 Tikarapara 38.88 42.92

Fig. 3.Demonstration of the procedure for extracting one-day PMP map for the catchment corresponding to a gauge at Patherdih.
 Sagar Rohidas Chavan and V.V. Srinivas / Aquatic Procedia 4 (2015) 892 – 899 899

5. Conclusions

Storm Model approach and Hershfield approach were applied to arrive at one-day PMP maps for Mahanadi basin
based on CFSR gridded precipitation data. The PMP maps were utilized to estimate one-day PMP for catchments
corresponding to 18 stream gauges in the river basin. Results indicated that the Hershfield approach tends to give
higher estimates for PMP when compared to the Storm model approach. Extended research is underway to use the
one-day PMP estimates in conjunction with a rainfall-runoff model to arrive at probable maximum flood (PMF)
estimates for the 18 catchments.

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