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04L SupplyPropagation
04L SupplyPropagation
04L SupplyPropagation
of
IBP for Sales & Operations Planning
September, 2018
Dr. Volkmar Soehner (SAP SE), Dr. Stefan Wedner (SAP SE)
1. Introduction
IBP for Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) offers as of its first release the “S&OP
Heuristic - infinite with no shortages”, the standard heuristic of S&OP. As of release
IBP 1802 there will be a new variant of this standard heuristic which is called the
“Infinite time-series-based Supply Planning Heuristic” or shorter “(infinite) Supply
Propagation”.
The supply is insufficient if the available supply is smaller than the demand.
In contrast to the standard heuristic of S&OP, the heuristic infinite with no shortages,
the Supply Propagation Heuristic does not fulfill the entire demand in situations of
insufficient supply. In such cases, the Supply Propagation Heuristic propagates only
the available supply in downstream direction.
a) the usage of Adjusted Key Figures. So, for instance, the Production Receipts
can be fixed via key figure Adjusted Production Receipts to a certain value
which can be lower than the required supply.
b) If no source of supply is defined for a location product its Net Demand will not
be satisfied by any receipts.
c) If receipts are expected within the lead time horizon of a location or production
source of supply and no transport or production was planned by a previous
planning run for periods in the past, i.e. before the start of the current planning
horizon.
Page 1
The infinite Supply Propagation Heuristic does not consider cases in which
insufficient resource capacities are the root cause of insufficient supply as resource’s
capacities are not treated as limiting constraints. Resource capacities are considered
as infinite – as indicated in the heuristic’s name.
Therefore, “no shortages” means that (for each location product) the Supply equals
the sum of Dependent Demand in each period. Even if there is not enough stock on-
hand or Total Receipts available to cover the required Supply, the heuristic satisfies
the entire Dependent Demand which results in a negative Projected Inventory in such
cases.
This behavior is explained by the following two figures. Figure 1 depicts as a starting
point a supply plan generated by the heuristic infinite with no shortages.
Note: We assume a transportation lead between Plant and Distribution Center and
between Distribution Center and Customer of zero periods.
In Figure 1, the Consensus Demands (CD) of both periods, i.e. 10 and 12 pieces, are
propagated by the heuristic to the Distribution Center, where a Net Demand (N) of
again 10 and 12 un pieces is computed. These Net Demands are passed to the
Plant. At the Plant both quantities trigger Production Receipts of 10 and 12 pieces.
As there are no limiting constraints the heuristic computes adequate Supply
(Transport Receipts) for the Distribution Center which therefore can satisfy both
Consensus Demands. The resulting supply plan is ideal as no negative Projected
Inventory arises and all Consensus Demands are fully satisfied.
Page 2
Heuristic “Infinite / no shortages”: No Supply Constraints
Distribution
Center Plant
Customer D: 10 12 D: 10 12
DCD: 10 | 12 I: 00 00 DLD: 10 | 12 I: 00 00
CD: 10 12 N: 10 12
N: 10 12
TCR: 10 12 CR: 10 | 12 TR: 10 | 12 S: 10 12
S: 10 12
R: 10 12 R: 10 12
P: 10 12
AP:
Production
Source S1
No supply constraint:
➢ sufficient supply
➢ no shortages, no negative Projected Inventory
➢ supply = demand => no need for supply propagation
CD: Customer Demand D: Dependent Demand R: Total Receipts AP: Adjusted Production Receipts
TCR: Tot. Customer Receipts I: Projected Inventory DLD: Dep. Locat. Demand
DCD: Depend. Cust. Demand N: Net Demand TR: Transport Receipts
CR: Customer Receipts S: Supply P: Production Receipts
© 2017 SAP SE All rights reserved. 1
The situation changes in Figure 2 which shows the same example with the only
difference that now the user adjusted the Production Receipts of period 1 to zero.
(Key figure Adjusted Production Receipts (AP) is set to zero.)
Page 3
Heuristic “Infinite / no shortages” with Insufficient Supply
Distribution
Center Plant
Customer D: 10 12 D: 10 12 negative
DCD: 10 | 12 I: 00 00 DLD: 10 | 12 I: -10 00 Projected
CD: 10 12 N: 10 12 Inventory
N: 10 12
TCR: 10 12 CR: 10 | 12 TR: 10 | 12 S: 10 12
S: 10 12
R: 10 12 R: 0 12
full satisfaction of P: 0 12
customer demand constrained /
AP: 0
full transport supply limited Supply
(no shortage)
Production
Source S1
Constrained supply:
➢ insufficient supply at „bottlenecks“ only
➢ no shortages, but negative Projected Inventory
➢ full satisfaction of customer demand
CD: Customer Demand D: Dependent Demand R: Total Receipts AP: Adjusted Production Receipts
TCR: Tot. Customer Receipts I: Projected Inventory DLD: Dep. Locat. Demand
DCD: Depend. Cust. Demand N: Net Demand TR: Transport Receipts
CR: Customer Receipts S: Supply P: Production Receipts
© 2017 SAP SE All rights reserved. 2
As Adjusted Production Receipts is set to zero in period 1 the Plant does not get
enough supply to satisfy the Dependent Demand of 10 pieces. Nevertheless, the
heuristic with no shortages supplies 10 pieces to the Distribution Center. Hence, the
Projected Inventory (at the Plant) in period 1 is -10. As the Dependent Demand of the
Distribution Center is covered completely it can satisfy the Consensus Demand. The
problem of limited supply “stays” at the Plant. The planner could realize this issue by
an alert defined on the negative Projected Inventory. But, the impact of the
constrained supply is not propagated downstream to the customer.
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Supply Propagation
Distribution
Center Plant
no negative
Customer D: 10 12 D: 10 12 Projected
DCD: 10 | 12 I: 00 00 DLD: 10 | 12 I: 0 00
CD: 10 12 Inventory
N: 10 12 N: 10 12
TCR: 0 12 CR: 0 | 12 TR: 0 | 12 S: 0 12
S: 0 12
R: 0 12 constrained
R: 0 12
supply
unsatisfied P: 0 12
customer demand constrained /
AP: 0
limited supply
Production
Source S1
Constrained supply:
➢ supply deficits are propagated along the entire downstream
➢ shortages > 0 as a consequence of limited supply
➢ customer demands might be (partially) unsatisfied
➢ negative Projected Inventories are avoided – if possible (see next slide)
CD: Customer Demand D: Dependent Demand R: Total Receipts AP: Adjusted Production Receipts
TCR: Tot. Customer Receipts I: Projected Inventory DLD: Dep. Locat. Demand
DCD: Depend. Cust. Demand N: Net Demand TR: Transport Receipts
CR: Customer Receipts S: Supply P: Production Receipts
© 2017 SAP SE All rights reserved. 3
Figure 3: Supply Propagation in case of limited supply
As the Plant of Figure 3 has no Stock on-hand and no Receipts in period 1 it cannot
satisfy the Dependent Demand in that period. Hence, the Supply Propagation
Heuristic does not plan any Supply and therefore no Transport Receipts from the
Plant to the Distribution Center in period 1. As a consequence, the Total Receipts (R)
at the Distribution Center are equal to zero, so that the Distribution Center cannot
satisfy its Dependent Demand in period 1. Analogously, the Supply Propagation
Heuristic does not plan any Customer Receipts for the Customer so that the
Consensus Demand of period 1 will not be satisfied. In contrast to Figure 2, now the
impact of adjusting the production to zero is propagated downstream to the customer.
A planer now can realize the impact of such a constraint at customer level.
In addition, the Supply Propagation Heuristic does not compute negative Projected
Inventory – if negative Projected Inventories are not enforced by the user via
Adjusted and Minimum Key Figures, as illustrated by Figure 4:
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Supply Propagation: Enforced Negative Projected Inventory
Distribution
Center Plant
Customer D: 10 12 D: 04 12
DCD: 10 | 12 I: -1 00 DLD: 04 | 12 I: 00 00
CD: 10 12 N: 04 12
N: 10 12
TCR: 05 12 CR: 05 | 12 TR: 04 | 12 S: 04 12
S: 05 12
MCR: 05 R: 04 12 AT: 04 R: 04 12
P: 04 12
AP:
Production
Source S1
CD: Customer Demand D: Dependent Demand R: Total Receipts AP: Adjusted Production Receipts
TCR: Tot. Customer Receipts I: Projected Inventory DLD: Dep. Locat. Demand AT: Adjusted Transport Receipts
DCD: Depend. Cust. Demand N: Net Demand TR: Transport Receipts MCR: Minimum Customer Receipts
CR: Customer Receipts S: Supply P: Production Receipts
© 2017 SAP SE All rights reserved. 4
Figure 4: Negative Projected Inventory enforced via Adjusted Key Figures
In Figure 4, the Adjusted Transport Receipts of only 4 pieces limits the supply to the
Distribution Center. Instead of the required 10 pieces, the Distribution Center
receives only 4 pieces in period 1. The Minimum Customer Receipts of 5 pieces
enforces even the Supply Propagation Heuristic to supply 5 pieces to the customer.
As the available quantity is only 4, the Projected Inventory becomes negative (-1).
Figure 5 shows the supply plan which is generated by the Time-series-based Supply
Planning Heuristic (i.e. infinite with no shortages).
The difference between Figure 4 and 5, i.e. between the Supply Planning and the
Supply Propagation is that in Figure 5 the heuristic satisfies the entire Consensus
Demand of 10 pieces (in period 1), disregarding that the Distribution Center has only
4 pieces available. As a result, the Projected Inventory is -6 (in Figure 4 it was
-1).
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Supply Planning: Enforced Negative Projected Inventory
Distribution
Center Plant
Customer D: 10 12 D: 04 12
DCD: 10 | 12 I: -6 00 DLD: 04 | 12 I: 00 00
CD: 10 12 N: 04 12
N: 10 12
TCR: 10 12 CR: 10 | 12 TR: 04 | 12 S: 04 12
S: 10 12
MCR: 05 R: 04 12 AT: 04 R: 04 12
P: 04 12
AP:
Production
Source S1
CD: Customer Demand D: Dependent Demand R: Total Receipts AP: Adjusted Production Receipts
TCR: Tot. Customer Receipts I: Projected Inventory DLD: Dep. Locat. Demand AT: Adjusted Transport Receipts
DCD: Depend. Cust. Demand N: Net Demand TR: Transport Receipts MCR: Minimum Customer Receipts
CR: Customer Receipts S: Supply P: Production Receipts
© 2017 SAP SE All rights reserved. 5
Figure 5: Result of the Heuristic “infinite with no shortages”
Computing a supply plan for an entire supply network is quite a complex and difficult
algorithmic exercise. The complexity is based on a lot of dependencies and the fact
that a planner usually faces several, partially conflicting objectives. In general, the
best approach is to use the Time-series-based Supply Planning Optimizer which
transforms the supply planning problem into a corresponding mathematical problem
which then is solved by a Mixed-Integer-Linear-Program (MILP) solver, i.e. a
standardized method known from Operations Research. As any heuristic, also the
Time-series-based Supply Propagation Heuristic has certain limitations which are
inherent and which are explained in the sequel:
Page 7
plans with minimal costs and maximum revenues, optimal Projected Inventory or
maximum delivery of Consensus Demands.
Figure 6 shows an example in which the Supply Propagation Heuristic does not
compute an optimal solution but where the optimizer easily generates an ideal supply
plan.
Based on the quotas of 50% of each of the Customer Sources the heuristic
propagates 20 pieces of the Consensus Demand to both Distribution Centers, DC1
and DC2. As the planner has specified an Adjusted Transport Receipts equal to zero,
DC1 has no Receipts. Hence, the Supply Propagation Heuristic computes a
Customer Receipts of zero from DC1. Consequently, only DC2 delivers 20 pieces to
satisfy the Consensus Demand so that the Total Customer Receipts are only 20
pieces.
DC1 / P1
D: 20
I: 0
DLD: 0
N: 20
S: 0 TR: 0
R: 0 AT: 0
C1 / P1
CD: 40
TCR: 20
DC2 / P1
D: 20
I: 0 DLD: 20
N: 20
S: 20 TR: 20
R: 20
Assuming DC2 could get Receipts of 40 pieces the optimizer of S&OP would
disregard the quotas and would therefore compute a Customer Receipts of 40 pieces
from DC2 to satisfy the entire Consensus Demand. The essence of this example is
Page 8
that the Supply Propagation Heuristic is not able to take sourcing decisions – like the
standard heuristic of S&OP, i.e. the heuristic infinite with no shortages.
There are other or similar situations in which the Time-series based Supply
Propagation Heuristic might compute obviously sub-optimal solutions, i.e. solutions
which are not as good as the those computed by the optimizer – as the following
sections will show.
Input Data
DC1 / P1 DC2 / P1
D: D:
I: I:
DCD: 10 10 DLD: DLD:
IT: 10 00 N:
N: S:
CR: TR: TR:
S: R: AT: 05
R:
Page 9
The Supply Propagation Heuristic is performed in two steps. In step 1 the heuristic
“infinite / no shortages” is performed to create an initial supply plan – as shown by
Figure 8 (upper area). The heuristic “infinite / no shortages” computes demand and
supply key figures for all customer and location products in upstream direction. This
means, it computes first all demand and all supply key figures for location product D1
/ P1 and then for D2 / P1.
DC1 / P1 DC2 / P1
D: 10 10 D: 20 00
I: 10 00 I: -15 00
DCD: 10 10 DLD: 20 00 DLD: 05 00
IT: 10 00 N: 20 00
N: 20 00 S: 20 00
CR: 10 10 TR: 20 00 TR: 05 00
S: 10 10 R: 05 00 AT: 05
R: 20 00
DC1 / P1 DC2 / P1
D: 10 10 D: 20 00
I: 00 00 I: 00 00
DCD: 10 10 DLD: 20 00 DLD: 05 00
IT: 10 00 N: 20 00
N: 20 00 S: 05 00
CR: 05 00 TR: 05 00 TR: 05 00
S: 05 00 R: 05 00 AT: 05
R: 05 00
Out-dated
net demand
DCD: Depend. Cust. Demand D: Dependent Demand R: Total Receipts
CR: Customer Receipts I: Projected Inventory DLD: Dep. Locat. Demand
IT: Inventory Target N: Net Demand TR: Transport Receipts
S: Supply AT: Adjusted Transport
© 2017 SAP SE All rights reserved. 8
When during step 1 demand and supply is computed for DC1 / P1 the heuristic
assumes to get supply to cover the entire Net Demand, i.e. 20 pieces in period 1. At
this point, the heuristic does not look ahead (in upstream direction) and therefore it
does not realize that the Adjusted Transport Receipts will limit the supply to only 5
pieces. For that reason, it assumes Receipts of 20 pieces in period 1 to build up
inventory of 10. In period 2, as Inventory Target drops to 10 the inventory of 10
pieces can be used to satisfy the Dependent Demand without the need to get
Receipts in period 2.
Page 10
In its second step the Supply Propagation distributes the available supply in
downstream direction. As soon as the heuristic reaches the location product DC2 /
P1 it realizes the Adjusted Transport Receipts, i.e. the limited supply of DC 2 / P1 of
only 5 pieces and it continues to propagate this limited supply as Transport Receipts
to DC1 / P1. At DC1 / P1 the heuristic then adjusts the Receipts from 20 to 5 pieces
as the actual Receipts. Therefore, the intended Inventory Target of 20 pieces cannot
be built; the Projected Inventory stays at zero. The consequences are: first, the
Dependent Demand of 10 pieces in period 1 cannot be met. The Supply Propagation
Heuristic delivers only the available supply of 5 pieces to the customer. Second, in
period 2 there is not stock on-hand available to satisfy the Dependent Demand. For
that reason, the Net Demand would have to be recomputed – which is not done.
As explained around Figure 3 the Supply Propagation Heuristic does not satisfy
Customer Demands entirely if there is not enough supply available. The Customer
Demand then stays unfulfilled in such periods. The Optimizer of S&OP offers the
feature Late Delivery which enables the Optimizer to fulfill such an unsatisfied
demand in a sub-sequent period. This Late Delivery-functionality, however, is not
supported neither by the S&OP standard nor by the Supply Propagation Heuristic.
Page 11
3.6 Limitations of the Infinite times-series-based Supply Planning Heuristic
There are several features of IBP for S&OP which are available for the optimizer
only, i.e. which are not supported by the Time-series-based Supply Planning
Heuristic. Such features are:
Such optimizer-only features are also not supported by the Supply Propagation
Heuristic.
Each of these demand types has a certain priority whereas Adjusted and Minimum
Key Figures have the highest and Dependent Location and Dependent Production
Demand have the lowest priority, as indicated by the list above.
As the demand caused by Adjusted and Minimum Key Figures must be fulfilled in any
case, even in cases of insufficient supply, the Supply Propagation Heuristic will
always satisfy this demand type, even if this results in a negative Projected Inventory
– as illustrated already by Figure 4. All other demand types are satisfied in the
sequence of their priority, until no more supply is available.
Figure 9 illustrates the priority based propagation of the available supply for an
example in which location product Plant A / Product P1 must satisfy two demands of
priority 1 (Adjusted Transport Receipts) and one demand of priority 5 (Dependent
Page 12
Location Demand). We will see that first the priority-1-demand is satisfied and then
the left-over-supply is used to satisfy the priority-5-demand.
DC2 / P1 Plant A / P1
D: 30 D: 50
I: -10
DLD: 30 I: 0 DLD: 20 DLD: 30
N: 50
N: 30
TR: 20 TR: 20 S: 40 TR: 30
S: 20
AT: 20 R: 30 AT: 30
R: 20
DC3 / P1
Prio 5
D: 10
DLD: 10 I: 0
N: 10
TR: 0 S: 0
R: 0
As the Total Receipts at Plant A are 30 pieces the available supply at Plant A is 30
pieces only. The Supply Propagation Heuristic covers at first the demand priority 1
and as this demand priority must be fulfilled even in cases where the supply is short,
it covers both Adjusted Transport Receipts, i.e. in total 40 pieces. Thus, the Projected
Inventory is below zero (i.e. -10) and there is no more supply available to satisfy the
Dependent Location Demand coming from DC3. Key figure Transport Receipts
therefore is set to zero.
Figure 10 shows another example with different demand priorities. Location Product
DC2 / P1 receives demands from an Independent Demand (priority 3), a customer
Page 13
demand from customer X (as a Customer Dependent Demand) which is priority 4 and
a Dependent Location Demand (Priority 4) from DC1.
CD: 10 Prio 4
TCR: 10
Transport
Sources
CD: Customer Demand D: Dependent Demand R: Total Receipts ID: Independent Demand
TCR: Tot. Customer Receipts I: Projected Inventory DLD: Dep. Locat. Demand IDS: Indep. Demand Supply
DCD: Depend. Cust. Demand N: Net Demand TR: Transport Receipts
CR: Customer Receipts S: Supply MT: Min. Transp. Receipts
© 2017 SAP SE All rights reserved. 11
5 = 15 * (10/30)
Customer 1 / P1
CD: 20
TCR: 15 DC2 / P1
D: 30
I: 00 DLD: 15
Supply propagated due N: 30
S: 15 TR: 15
to demand (and not due AT: 15
R: 15
to quotas)
Customer 2 / P1
CD: 40 10 = 15 * (20/30)
TCR: 30
The Dependent Demand at DC2 is 30 pieces, 10 are requested from Customer 1 and
20 from Customer 2. The available supply, however, is only 15 as Total Receipts are
fixed to 15 by the Adjusted Transport Receipts. The Supply Propagation Heuristic
now propagates the available supply in relation to the Dependent Customer
Demands in downstream direction, i.e. towards the two customers. As explained by
Figure 11, Customer 1 gets 15 * (10 / 30) = 5 pieces and Customer 2 gets 15 * (20 /
30) = 10 pieces.
Page 15
Supply Propagation along Production Sources
DC1 P2
D: 10
I: 00 DLD: 08
N: 10
S: 08 TR: 08
DC1 P1 DC1 P1 S1 R: 08 AT: 08
D: 10
I: 00
N: 10 P: 08
R: 08
DC1 P3
D: 10
I: 02 DLD: 10
N: 10
S: 08 TR: 10
R: 10
Minimum Product
Component defines
Production Receipts
Figure 12 shows the location product of the output product, which is DC1 / P1, the
production source (DC1 / P1 / S1) which requires two components P2 and P3 with a
component coefficient of 1. In the example of Figure 12 we see that the Net Demand
of P1 is 10, however the heuristic can plan Production Receipts of only 8 pieces. The
root cause is that component P2 is limited by an Adjusted Transport Receipts to 8
pieces. So, even with no limit on component P3 the Supply Propagation Heuristic
must reduce the production quantity to 8 because there is not enough supply
available for components P2 to satisfy the entire Dependent Production Demand of
10 pieces.
Another interesting aspect is how the Supply Propagation Heuristic handles Adjusted
Production Receipts, which is shown by Figure 13.
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Supply Propagation and Adjusted Production
DC1 / P1
D: 50
I: 0
N: 50
S: 25
R: 25
DC3 / P1
D: 20
I: 0
N: 20
S: 10
R: 10
Product P1 is requested by three locations (DC1, DC2 and DC3) from Plant A at
which we have a Production Source S1 (Plant A / P1 / S1). The Dependent Demand
at Plant A is 100. The user has entered an Adjusted Production Receipts of only 50
which limits the supply at Plant A so that Plant A can deliver only 50% of the
requested demand. Thus, each of the three requesting DCs gets only 50% of its
requested Dependent Location Demand. The corresponding Transport Receipts are
25 for DC1 (and not the requested 50), 15 for DC2 (instead of 30) and for DC3 10
(instead of 20) pieces.
Page 17