ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 1

Current Reco : BUY 1QFY20 RESULT REVIEW

Previous Reco
CMP
: BUY
: INR416
ICICI Bank
Target Price : INR525 Impressive core performance; maintain top pick
Potential Return : 26% ICICIBC's performance was strong across most parameters (NIMs, retail loan
growth, core PPoP and asset quality). Fees was modest at 10% YoY and
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers higher than expected provisions on account of ageing of NPLs (PCR at 84%
Asiamoney Brokers’ Poll 2019
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers is probably highest in the sector) kept earnings subdued. Slippages are
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers
P Vote for ANTIQUE
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers trending lower and BB & below rated pool shrunk to 2.6% of loan.
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers
Voting closes on 16th August Management did not categorically mention about emerging stress names
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers
(DHFL, ADAG & others), but indicated their internal rating of the book is
dynamic and would capture exposures where there is any default risk.
Hence, it seems that the bank is likely to be largely unaffected. Hence, we
Sohail Halai
+91 22 4031 3425
are comfortable on credit cost estimates and recoveries from large exposure
sohail.halai@antiquelimited.com would aid P&L. Structurally, retail lending machinery has started speaking
across products and liability profile remains strong, this could keep surprising
positively on core profitability. Maintain ICICIBC as top pick.
Market data Core profitability trending higher: in reaching distance of its peak
Sensex : 37,883
Core PPP to average assets for the quarter stood at 2.4%, compared to peer stress period
Sector : BANKS
(highs) of 2.6-2.7%. This is on account of strong and stable NIM performance (3.4% core
Market Cap (INRbn) : 2,682.8
global NIMs and 3.7-3.8% core domestic NIMs) even as fee income contribution was slow
Market Cap (USDbn) : 38.858
O/S Shares (m) : 6,453.0
(+10% YoY, as income from distribution continued to decline, in FY19 income from distribution
52-wk HI/LO (INR) : 444/273
had declined 37% YoY). Cost growth was high at 18% YoY, led by 29% YoY in employee
Avg Daily Vol ('000) : 16,393
expense as bank invested in people for growth.
Bloomberg : ICICIBC IN Retail products engine restarted
Source: Bloomberg
Overall loan growth was 15% YoY, with domestic loan growth of 18% YoY. Within domestic
Valuation loans retail loans across products showed good traction on a lower base, unlike in the past
FY19 FY20e FY21e where mortgages were the key driver. Housing loans was up 19% YoY, CVs (+31% YoY), two-
EPS (INR) 5.2 20.6 26.9 wheelers (5.7x), personal loans (+54% YoY), credit cards (+33% YoY) and business loans
PE (x) 64.1 15.6 11.4 (+46% YoY). Retail loans now form 61% of overall loans with better yielding loans at ~12%
AP/ABV (x)* 2.3 2.0 1.7 of loans. Management mentioned that retail delinquencies are contained and growth is an
NIM (%) 3.4 3.6 3.7 outcome of cross-sell to internal customers where they are comfortable.
Adj. BVPS (INR) 145.8 163.9 181.3 Asset Quality performance was strong
Source: Company *adjusted for investment in subsidiaries
Slippages for the quarter were INR27.7bn (annualized slippage ratio of 2.2%). Of this
Returns (%) INR12.7bn was from corporate (most of which pertained to identified BB & below rated pool)
1m 3m 6m 12m and INR15.1bn from retail (of which INR4.5bn was from kissan credit cards). GNPL was
Absolute (5) 2 16 46 stable QoQ and increase in provision coverage ratio to 74% (84%, +400bps QoQ) on
Relative (1) 5 11 42 account of ageing of NPLs brought NNPLs lower (1.8% of loans). BB & below rated loans
Source: Bloomberg, Antique
declined 13% QoQ to 2.6% of loans (of which 25% is from non-fund based on which bank
Shareholding pattern carries provisions of 35%+).

Promoters : -- Quarterly snapshot (INR mn)

Public : 100% 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 1QFY20 Est. Var. (%)
Others : - NII 61,019 64,176 68,753 76,201 77,374 74,807 3.4
% Change (YoY) 9.2 12.4 20.5 26.5 26.8 22.6
Source: Bloomberg
NIMs (%) 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.5 8
Price performance vs Nifty Other Income 38,518 31,565 38,829 36,210 34,254 38,246 -10.4
Operating Exp. 41,453 43,244 46,117 50,077 48,744 48,082 1.4
160
140 Operating Profit 58,084 52,497 61,464 62,334 62,885 64,971 -3.2
120 % Change (YoY) 12.1 -24.9 21.5 -17.0 8.3 11.9
100 Other Provisions 59,713 39,943 42,442 54,514 34,957 28,000 24.8
80 PAT -1,196 9,089 16,049 9,691 19,080 26,989 -29.3
Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19 % Change (YoY) -105.8 -55.8 -2.7 -5.0 N.A. N.A.
ICICI Bank NIFTY NNPL (%) 4.2 3.7 2.6 2.1 1.8 2.0 -18
Source: Bloomberg, Indexed to 100 Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 2

Reduce FY20 earnings but maintain FY21 estimates

INR bn Old Est. Revised Est. Chg (%)
FY20 FY21 FY20 FY21 FY20 FY21
Net Interest Income 311.4 363.7 324.3 375.9 4.1 3.4
Other Income 167.4 199.1 154.0 182.5 -8.0 -8.3
Total Income 478.9 562.8 478.2 558.4 -0.1 -0.8
Operating Expenses 208.0 239.2 206.7 236.4 -0.6 -1.2
Operating Profits 270.9 323.5 271.6 322.0 0.3 -0.5
Provisions 68.0 71.7 79.1 70.4 16.2 -1.9
PBT 202.8 251.8 192.5 251.6 -5.1 -0.1
Tax 56.8 75.5 59.7 78.0 5.1 3.3
PAT 146.0 176.3 132.8 173.6 -9.0 -1.5
Source: Company, Antique

SOTP Based Target Price

Total Value Value Per % of
Stake (%) Rs bn Share Rs Total Value Rationale
ICICI Bank 2,704 419 81.6 Based on residual income model
ICICI Pru Life Insurance 53 322 50 9.7 2.3x Mar-20 EV
ICICI Home Finance 100 19 3 0.6 1x March 21 BV
ICICI Pru AMC 51 118 18 3.6 5% of average AUM of FY21
ICICI Securities 100 67 10 2.0 15x FY21E PAT
ICICI Lombard Gen. Ins 56 290 45 8.7 Based on current MCAP
Others 6
Total Value of Ventures 816 132 25.8
Less: 20% holding Discount 163 26 5
Value of Key Ventures 653 106 20.6
Target Price Post 20% Holding Co. Disc. 3,357 525 102
Source: Company, Antique

Return ratios to improve - core PPoP near its historic peak (% of average assets)
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Net Interest Income 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.2
Core Fee Income 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4
Core Income 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.6
Operating Expenses 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0
Cost to Core Income 45.0 43.4 42.5 42.1 42.2 47.3 47.1 46.4 45.1 44.2
Core operating Profits 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6
Trading and others 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.2
Operating Profits 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.7 2.8
Provisions 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.1 0.8 0.6
NPA 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.0 1.7 1.8 0.7 0.6
PBT 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.6 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.4 1.9 2.2
Tax 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.7
Tax Rate 26.6 26.9 29.8 29.4 20.2 13.1 8.8 10.9 31.0 31.0
RoA 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.4 1.3 1.5
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 3

Loan growth has picked up

18

14

10

1QFY17

1QFY17

1QFY17

1QFY17

1QFY17

1QFY17

1QFY17

1QFY17

1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20
Domestic Loans Gr. (%) Overall Loan Gr. YoY (%)

Source: Company, Antique

Loan book has seen a churn; 97% of net change in loans driven by retail loans
Incremental
QoQ YoY share over
(INR bn) 1QFY20 Chg. (%) Chg (%) % of loans FY15-1QFY20
Retail 3,636 3 22 61.4 97.2
Mortgage 1,839 3 19 31.0 46.3
Auto 315 0 6 5.3 6.2
CV 233 2 31 3.9 6.1
Two wheeler 18 35 471 0.3 0.9
Personal loans 344 11 54 5.8 13.4
Credit Cards 137 11 33 2.3 4.8
Business Banking 193 3 46 3.3 4.9
Others 561 -1 14 9.5 15.0
SME 295 -4 23 5.0 6.1
International 596 -5 -7 10.1 -16.9
Domestic Corporate 1,397 0 7 23.6 13.5
Overall Loans 5,924 1 15
Source: Company, Antique

98% of incremental loans to better rated borrowers

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 1QFY20 Incremental
over FY15-
1QFY20
AA - and above 28.2 30.4 30.6 37.2 42.4 45.1 44.7 71.7
A+ A and A- 22.7 20.3 21.3 19.0 20.1 22.0 22.4 26.4
A- and above 50.9 50.7 51.9 56.2 62.5 67.1 67.1 98.0
BBB+ BBB, BBB- 35.3 27.7 27.8 28.7 27.5 28.2 29.2 32.1
BB and below 12.2 18.6 19.6 14.6 9.4 4.5 3.5 -25.0
Unrated 1.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 -0.6
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 4

Slippages have been trended lower and near normalized levels

(INR mn) 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20
Slippages 49,760 46,740 43,800 157,370 40,360 31,170 20,910 35,470 27,790
Slippage Ratio (%) 4.4 4.1 3.8 13.6 3.5 2.6 1.7 2.8 2.2
Retail 8,790 6,600 7,930 7,050 11,200 7,600 10,710 8,230 15,110
Retail Slippage Ratio (%) 1.7 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.1 2.0
Corporate and SME 40,970 40,140 35,870 150,320 29,160 23,570 10,200 27,240 12,680
Corp. and SME Slippage Ratio (%) 6.8 6.8 6.2 26.9 5.4 4.2 1.8 4.9 2.3
Of this
From stressed/identified pool 21,410 19,190 29,790 136,350 18,230 23,180 9,510 18,770 11,630
% of corporate and SME slippages 52.3 47.8 83.0 90.7 62.5 98.3 93.2 68.9 91.7
Source: Company, Antique

GNPL and NNPL trending lower; high PCR Weaker loan portfolio has come-down
10.0 95.0 600 14.0
9.0
85.0 500 12.0
8.0
7.0 75.0 10.0
400
6.0
8.0
5.0 65.0 300
4.0 6.0
3.0 55.0 200
4.0
2.0 45.0
1.0 100 2.0
0.0 35.0
0 0.0
1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

1QFY19*
1QFY17

2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17

1QFY18
2QFY18

3QFY18
4QFY18

2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19

1QFY20
GNPL (%) NNPL (%) PCR (%) PCR (incl. w /off) Watch-list (INR bn) % of loans

Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique; *expanded watch-list to BB& below rated loans in 1QFY19

Since inception 20% of the BB & below portfolio slipped

but there has been reduction/upgrades from this pool as well Coverage on stress pool now very comfortable
300 70
250 60
51

200 50
90

150 40
246

49

100
30
154

50
20
0
10
Ugrades/Reduction
Opening

Closing
Slippages

Downgrades

0
1QFY19*
1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

Coverage (%) Coverage (incl. w /off)

Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 5

NPL bucketing (consolidated)

GNPL (INR mn) % of Total NNPL (INR mn) % of Total PCR (%)
4QFY19 1QFY20 4QFY19 1QFY20 4QFY19 1QFY20 4QFY19 1QFY20 4QFY19 1QFY20
Sub-standard 64,228 60,792 13.2 12.7 43,984 39,413 31.0 31.6 31.5 35.2
D1 53,265 55,476 11.0 11.5 16,389 18,579 11.5 14.9 69.2 66.5
D2 272,387 227,083 56.1 47.3 80,524 65,416 56.7 52.5 70.4 71.2
D3 69,205 107,853 14.2 22.5 1,149 1,185 0.8 1.0 98.3 98.9
Loss 26,605 29,196 5.5 6.1 0 0 100.0 100.0
GNPL 485,689 480,400 142,046 124,593 70.8 74.1
Source: Company, Antique

Higher credit cost also due to shift in NPL bucketing (%)

7

0
1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20
Credit Cost (%)
Source: Company, Antique

Strong NIM performance (%) Cost of fund remains contained (%)

4.2 1.8 4.1 10.0
4.0 1.6 9.0
4.0 3.9
1.4
1.2 8.0
3.8 3.7 3.73.7
3.7
3.6 3.6 1.0
3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 7.0
3.6 3.5 0.8
3.5 3.4
3.4 0.6 6.0
3.4 3.3
3.3 3.3 3.2 0.4
3.2 5.0
3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 0.2
3.2
0.0 4.0
1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20
3.0 -0.2
1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

Yield on funds Yield on loans

NIMs (%) Domestic NIM (%) Overseas NIM (%) (RSH) Cost of funds Cost of Deposits

Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 6

Fees moderates because of retail fees Cost growth driven by employee expense
18 1.4 25 2.1
16 1.35
14 20
1.3 1.9
12
1.25 15
10
1.2 1.7
8 10
1.15
6
4 1.1 1.5
5
2 1.05
0 1 0 1.3

1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20
1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20
Fee inc ome to avg. assets (%) (RHS) Fee inc ome Gr YoY (%) Cost to avg. assets (%) (RHS) Cost Gr. YoY (%)

Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique

Core PPP trending higher

2.5 30
25
2.4
20
2.3 15
10
2.2
5
2.1 0
-5
2
-10
1.9 -15
1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20
Core PPP to avg. assets (%) (RHS) Core PPP Gr. (%)

Source: Company, Antique

Liability profile remains strong Domestic LD ratio is comfortable

85.9
50 5.9 87
85.1

84.8

86
45 5.7
85
83.5

83.4
82.9

82.9
5.5 84
40
82.2

81.8

5.3 83

81.4
80.9
35 82
80.6
80.5

5.1 81
30
4.9 80
25 79
4.7
78
20 4.5 77
1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

Average daily CASA ratio (%) SA Market sh. (%) (RHS) Domestic LD ratio (%)
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 7

Quarterly Performance
Variation (%)
INR mn 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 QoQ YoY
Profit and Loss
Net Interest Income 55,898 57,091 57,053 60,217 61,019 64,176 68,753 76,201 77,374 2 27
Other Income 33,879 51,862 31,669 56,786 38,518 31,565 38,829 36,210 34,254 -5 -11
Trading profits 8,580 21,930 660 26,850 7,668 -350 4,790 1,560 1,790 15 -77
Fee Income 23,770 25,700 26,390 27,550 27,540 29,950 30,620 31,780 30,390 -4 10
Miscellaneous Income 1,529 4,232 4,619 2,386 3,310 1,965 3,419 2,870 2,074 -28 -37
Total Income 89,778 108,953 88,721 117,003 99,537 95,741 107,581 112,411 111,629 -1 12
Operating Expenses 37,944 39,088 38,144 41,863 41,453 43,244 46,117 50,077 48,744 -3 18
Employee 15,112 15,141 13,626 15,262 15,139 16,614 17,340 18,990 19,533 3 29
Others 22,833 23,948 24,518 26,601 26,315 26,630 28,777 31,087 29,211 -6 11
Operating Profits 51,833 69,865 50,578 75,140 58,084 52,497 61,464 62,334 62,885 1 8
Provisions 26,087 45,029 35,696 66,258 59,713 39,943 42,442 54,514 34,957 -36 -41
PBT 25,746 24,836 14,882 8,882 -1,629 12,554 19,023 7,820 27,927 257 N.A.
Taxes 5,256 4,254 -1,621 -1,318 -434 3,465 2,974 -1,871 8,847 -573 N.A.
PAT 20,490 20,582 16,502 10,200 -1,196 9,089 16,049 9,691 19,080 97 N.A.
Asset Quality
GNPA 431,480 444,885 460,390 540,625 534,650 544,890 515,915 462,916 457,631 -1 -14
NNPA 253,060 241,298 238,100 278,863 241,700 220,860 162,524 135,770 118,570 -13 -51
GNPA (%) 8.0 7.9 7.8 8.8 8.8 8.5 7.8 6.7 6.5 -21 -232
NNPA (%) 4.9 4.4 4.2 4.8 4.2 3.7 2.6 2.1 1.8 -29 -242
PCR (Calculated, %) 41 46 48 48 55 59 68 71 74 342 1,930
GNPA - Retail 41,400 43,510 46,860 47,120 53,440 54,630 59,010 60,220 69,730 16 30
NNPA - Retail 15,660 16,600 18,480 18,850 22,570 23,000 25,280 25,330 29,610 17 31
Prov. for NPA in qtr 26,087 45,029 35,696 66,258 59,713 39,943 42,442 54,514 34,957 -36 -41
Credit Cost 2.2 3.8 2.9 5.2 4.6 3.0 3.1 3.8 2.4 -142 -227
Ratios (%)
Fees to Total Income 26.5 23.6 29.7 23.5 27.7 31.3 28.5 28.3 27.2
Cost to Core Income 46.7 44.9 43.3 46.4 45.1 45.0 44.9 45.2 44.4
Tax Rate 20.4 17.1 -10.9 -14.8 26.6 27.6 15.6 -23.9 31.7
CASA 49.0 49.5 50.4 51.7 50.5 50.8 49.3 49.6 45.2
Dom. Loan/Deposit (Rep) 81.8 83.5 84.8 80.6 83.4 85.9 82.9 80.9 81.4
Loan / Deposit 95.4 96.8 97.7 91.3 94.4 97.5 93.0 89.8 89.7
Margins - Reported (%)
Yield on funds 7.9 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.5 8.4 -5 71
Yield on loans 8.7 8.7 8.5 8.7 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.4 7 65
Cost of funds 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 3 24
Cost of deposits 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 8 27
Quarterly NIMs 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.6 -11 42
Domestic quarterly NIM 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.7 4.1 3.9 -19 39
Overseas quarterly NIM 0.73 0.95 0.29 0.04 0.30 0.05 0.77 0.03 0.33 30 3
Franchise
ATM 13,780 13,792 14,262 14,367 14,394 14,417 14,944 14,987 15,101
Branches 4,852 4,856 4,860 4,867 4,867 4,867 4,867 4,874 4,882
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 8

Quarterly performance continued

INR bn 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 QoQ (%) YoY (%)
Balance Sheet
Loans 4,641 4,828 5,054 5,124 5,163 5,445 5,643 5,866 5,924 1 15
Investments 1,992 2,055 2,032 2,541 2,186 2,120 2,298 2,502 2,498 0 14
Customer Assets 5,207 5,447 5,669 5,846 5,768 6,051 6,299 6,591 6,699 2 16
Deposits 4,863 4,986 5,174 5,610 5,469 5,587 6,068 6,529 6,607 1 21
Borrowings 1,411 1,504 1,582 1,825 1,616 1,743 1,639 1,650 1,567 -5 -3
Total Assets 7,609 7,878 8,139 8,792 8,451 8,743 9,124 9,641 9,638 0 14
Deposits Break Up
CASA Deposits 2,380 2,469 2,606 2,899 2,763 2,835 2,994 3,239 2,989 -8 8
% of total Deposits 49 50 50 52 51 51 49 50 45
Savings 1,700 1,785 1,859 2,010 1,996 2,075 2,108 2,277 2,185 -4 9
% of total Deposits 35 36 36 36 36 37 35 35 33
Current 681 684 748 890 767 761 886 963 804 -16 5
% of total Deposits 14 14 14 16 14 14 15 15 12
Term Deposits 2,482 2,518 2,568 2,711 2,706 2,751 3,074 3,290 3,619 10 34
% of total Deposits 51 50 50 48 49 49 51 50 55
Loan Break Up
SME Loans 204 210 248 254 239 253 278 306 295 -4 23
Corporate Loans 1,242 1,312 1,359 1,323 1,309 1,383 1,361 1,402 1,397 0 7
Retail Loans 2,475 2,588 2,740 2,899 2,970 3,118 3,332 3,528 3,636 3 22
of which
Housing 1,327 1,384 1,449 1,501 1,545 1,608 1,711 1,782 1,839 3 19
Personal Loans 151 166 186 209 223 251 278 310 344 11 54
Credit Cards 81 83 90 94 103 105 114 123 137 11 33
Others 916 955 1,014 1,096 1,099 1,154 1,229 1,313 1,315 0 20
International Loans 715 718 708 646 644 691 672 630 596 -5 -7
Loan Mix
SME Loans 4.4 4.4 4.9 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.0
Corporate Loans 26.8 27.2 26.9 25.8 25.4 25.4 24.1 23.9 23.6
Retails 53.3 53.6 54.2 56.6 57.5 57.3 59.0 60.1 61.4
International Loans 15.5 14.9 14.0 12.6 12.5 12.7 11.9 10.7 10.1
Subsidiaries PAT (INR m)
I Sec 1,150 1,310 1,530 1,590 1,340 1,340 1,010 1,220 1,140 -7 -15
I Sec PD 660 520 -310 240 -360 -430 1,230 240 690 188 N.A.
I Venture 0 0 0 0 30 -40 2 690 220 -68 633
Pru AMC 1,410 1,560 1,610 1,670 800 1,960 1,960 2,170 2,190 1 174
ICICI Home Finance 190 140 300 200 140 110 -3 440 -60 N.A. N.A.
ICIC Life Insurance 4,060 4,210 4,520 3,410 2,820 3,010 2,970 2,610 2,850 9 1
ICICI General Insurance 2,150 2,040 2,320 2,120 2,890 2,930 2,390 2,280 3,100 36 7
Subsidiaries PAT 4,510 128 2,438 1,220 1,246 2,961 2,691 2,009 6,060 202 387
ICICI Bank 20,490 20,582 16,502 10,200 -1,196 9,089 16,049 9,691 19,080 97 -1,696
Consol Profit 25,000 20,710 18,940 11,420 50 12,050 18,740 11,700 25,140 115 N.A.
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 9

Financials
Profit and loss account (INRm) Asset Quality
Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e
Interest Income 5,41,563 5,49,659 6,34,012 7,49,834 8,66,116 Gross NPA (INRm) 4,21,594 5,32,402 4,56,760 3,98,410 3,61,235
Interest Expense 3,24,190 3,19,400 3,63,864 4,25,568 4,90,207 Gross NPA (%) 8.76 9.90 7.38 5.67 4.40
Net Interest Income 2,17,373 2,30,258 2,70,148 3,24,266 3,75,910 Net NPA (INRm) 2,52,168 2,78,236 1,34,497 1,00,587 97,847
% NII Growth 2.4 5.9 17.3 20.0 15.9 Net NPA (%) 5.43 5.43 2.29 1.50 1.23
Fee Income 94,520 1,03,410 1,19,890 1,34,277 1,58,447 % coverage of NPA 40.2 47.7 70.6 74.8 72.9
Non-interest income 1,95,045 1,74,196 1,45,122 1,53,981 1,82,496 Delinquencies (%) 7.7 6.2 2.1 1.8 2.0
Net Revenue 4,12,418 4,04,455 4,15,270 4,78,247 5,58,406
Employees Expenses 57,337 59,140 68,082 80,337 92,388 Capital Adequacy Ratio
Other Op. Expenses 90,214 97,900 1,12,808 1,26,345 1,44,034 Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e
Operating Profit 2,64,867 2,47,415 2,34,379 2,71,564 3,21,985 RWA (INRm) 62,48,020 63,49,080 68,73,750 77,07,000 89,10,311

% OP Growth 11.0 -6.6 -5.3 15.9 18.6 Tier I (%) 14.4 15.9 15.1 14.6 13.9

Tax 14,775 6,571 4,135 59,673 78,004 Tier II (%) 3.0 2.5 1.8 1.9 1.8

Total Provisions 1,52,081 1,73,070 1,96,611 79,072 70,358 Total CAR (%) 17.4 18.4 16.9 16.4 15.7

Net Profit 98,011 67,774 33,633 1,32,820 1,73,622

Business Ratios
Balance sheet (INRm) Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e
Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e Credit / Deposit(%) 94.7 91.3 89.8 88.4 87.3
Capital 15,151 16,358 12,895 12,895 12,895 Investment / Deposit (%) 33.0 36.2 31.8 31.1 30.1
Reserves and Surplus 9,87,860 10,38,731 10,70,786 11,56,787 12,69,207 CASA (%) 50.4 51.7 49.6 50.2 50.3
Deposits 49,00,391 56,09,752 65,29,197 76,09,795 91,12,099 RoaA (%) 1.3 0.8 0.4 1.3 1.5
Borrowings 14,72,062 18,25,086 16,53,200 15,88,492 16,49,566 Core RoE (%) 12.3 7.7 3.6 13.3 15.6
Other Liabilities & Provisions 3,42,452 3,01,964 3,78,515 4,45,759 4,58,333 Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.9
Total liabilities 77,17,914 87,91,892 96,44,591 1,08,13,728 1,25,02,101
Key assumptions
Cash & Balances with RBI 3,17,024 3,31,024 3,78,580 3,68,052 5,10,182
Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e
Deposit
Bal. with banks/ call money 4,40,107 5,10,670 4,24,383 3,67,932 2,15,233
Deposit growth (%) 16.3 14.5 16.4 16.6 19.7
Investment 16,15,065 20,29,942 20,77,327 23,68,153 27,47,057
Cost of deposits (%) 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.7
Loans and advances 46,42,321 51,23,953 58,66,466 67,26,904 79,53,903
Advances
Fixed Assets 78,052 79,035 79,314 82,314 85,314
Advances growth (%) 6.7 10.4 14.5 14.7 18.2
Other Assets 6,25,346 7,17,268 8,18,522 9,00,374 9,90,411
Yield on advances (%) 8.8 8.4 8.7 9.2 9.1
Total assets 77,17,914 87,91,892 96,44,591 1,08,13,728 1,25,02,101
Investments
Per share data (INR) Investments growth (%) 0.7 25.7 2.3 14.0 16.0
Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e Yield on investments (%) 7.1 6.3 6.2 6.7 6.6
Book value per share (INR) 163.5 156.3 161.0 174.4 191.8
ABV (for Subsidaries) (INR) 145.8 141.0 145.8 163.9 181.3
Earnings Ratios
AP/ABV (x)* 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.7
Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e
Interest Inc. / Avg.assets (%) 7.3 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.4
EPS(INR) 16.8 10.5 5.2 20.6 26.9
Interest Exp./ Avg. assets (%) 4.3 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.2
AP/EPS Ratio 21.0 32.1 64.1 15.6 11.4
NIM (%) 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7
DPS 2.3 1.4 1.5 6.2 8.1
Int. exp/ Int earned (%) 59.9 58.1 57.4 56.8 56.6
Source: Company, Antique *adjusted for investment in subsidiaries
Oth. Inc./ Tot. Inc. (%) 47.3 43.1 34.9 32.2 32.7
Staff exp/Total opt. exp (%) 38.9 37.7 37.6 38.9 39.1
Cost/ Income Ratio (%) 35.8 38.8 43.6 43.2 42.3
Total Prov./ Operating Profit (%) 57.4 70.0 83.9 29.1 21.9
Loan loss prov./Avg. loans (bps) 3.3 2.9 3.1 1.2 0.9
Source: Company Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 10

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