US protests and riots

1 Jun 2020 - Country Risk | Strategic Report

Over the weekend of 29–31 May, protests were held in over 140 cities across the United States, with several
leading to violence including arson and vandalism against retail outlets, religious buildings, and government
assets, and police use of force. National Guard units have been deployed in at least 24 states.

Much of the criminal activity occurred in the

hours after the initiation of peaceful protests,
which were triggered by the 25 May killing of an
unarmed African American by a police officer in
Minneapolis, Minnesota. Most of the looting and
vandalism has been directed at retail outlets and
office buildings near to where the peaceful protests
have been organised, which have been held primarily
in minority neighbourhoods and downtown locations.
Additionally, there are numerous reports of protesters
throwing projectiles, such as rocks and bottles, at the
police and then security forces responding with tear
gas and rubber bullets. Over 4,100 people have
reportedly been arrested nationwide in relation to the A f u e l t r u c k s p e e d s t h r o u g h t h o u s a n d s o f p r o t e s t e r s o n
demonstrations, and over 26 governors have called tMhaeyI -23052W0 . b r i d g e i n M i n n e a p o l i s , M i n n e s o t a , o n 3 1
out their National Guard units to enforce curfews, the Tim Evans/NurPhoto via Getty Images
most deployed since the 1968 unrest following the
assassination of Martin Luther King. One man was
reportedly shot and killed in Kentucky on 1 June by either the police or the National Guard who had
reportedly come under fire. The circumstances of the incident were unconfirmed at the time of writing.
Although the reasons for the peaceful protests are focused on police power abuse, the
instigation of looting and rioting appears multifaceted. The trajectory of protests is likely to be
exacerbated by the historic animosity between minorities and the police in some US cities,
unemployment likely reaching levels not seen since the 1930s’ Great Depression, and potentially the
provocation of outside groups to participate in the rioting. There have been unconfirmed reports that
white supremacist organisations have encouraged their supporters to instigate violence to discredit
peaceful protests and to aggravate racial divides. Other groups appear to be attempting to exploit the
unrest through social media and through their involvement in protests in order to promote wider anti-
institutionalist and anti-state agendas. Accordingly, risks of race-related criminality and terrorism will
rise during the coming week and likely throughout the coming months, specifically via the arson and/or
vandalism of black churches or vehicle attacks against protesters by far-right-aligned individuals.
The duration and scope of protests are likely to be affected by the context of coronavirus
disease 2019 (COVID-19)-virus-related restrictive measures, job losses, and other social
issues. Large-scale peaceful protests are very likely to continue throughout June, with episodes of
rioting and looting likely to continue until Sunday 7 June, if not longer. During the smaller police-abuse-
related riots of 2014–16, looting and arson episodes usually died down following the weekend after the
peaceful protests began. Individuals needed to return to work and state National Guards were quickly
brought in to patrol affected neighbourhoods. However, in this case, because of the higher number of
unemployed individuals with no work to return to, as well as schools remaining closed, protests are
likely to last longer and become more violent throughout the summer following trigger events such as
allegations of police violence against protesters or the killing of an unarmed African American. Cities in
which the police have historically had poor relations with minority populations, such as Minneapolis and
Los Angeles, will be more likely to experience looting and arson episodes.
US cities, already struggling to cope with the COVID-19-virus outbreak, will face additional
fiscal and bureaucratic difficulties conducting normal operations. Cities and states have been
significantly affected following the virus outbreak, with declining tax revenues and additional healthcare-
related costs, along with personnel working remotely and in under personal strain. The ongoing
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 protests will only exacerbate these difficulties, with city services paying now for police overtime and the
reinitiating of normal economic activities following the pandemic now delayed. This means that
businesses needing licences or to acquire other city services will now face additional delays, and a
higher prospect of contract cancellation and/or modification.

Indicators of changing risk environment

Increasing risk

Reports of an excessive police response directed at protesters are likely to only inflame participants,
thus leading to additional bouts of looting and arson.
A vehicle terrorist attack, leading to the death of multiple protesters, will lead to additional nationwide
protests, many of which will turn violent.
Public support increases for African-American causes through social media and/or appearances at
demonstrations by non-African American (manly Caucasian) anti-institution activists, including
advocates for stronger gun ownership rights.

Decreasing risk

Strong statements by African Community leaders calling for the cancellation of peaceful protests to limit
violence are likely to result in smaller attendance of protests and a reduction in violence.
Statements by Republican party leaders advocating the passage of a new fiscal COVID-19-virus-
related stabilisation package to support distressed cities, states, and counties would raise the risk of
quick adoption and lower the risk of operational difficulties for companies dealing with US local
governments.

Analyst Contact Details: John Raines

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