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Valuation PPT Upenn PDF
Valuation PPT Upenn PDF
Valuation PPT Upenn PDF
760, 2008
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SAIS 380.760, 2008
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SAIS 380.760, 2008
Project Forecasts
Project’s forecasts of expected unlevered FCFs
Year 0 1 2 3
Incremental Earnings ($MM)
1) Sales 110 110 110
2) COGS (60) (60) (60)
3) Gross Profit 50 50 50
4) Operating Expenses (4.3) (10) (10) (10)
5) Depreciation (20) (20) (20)
6) EBIT (4.3) 20 20 20
7) Income Tax (30%) 1.3 (6) (6) (6)
8) Unlevered Net Income (3) 14 14 14
Free Cash Flow
9) Plus depreciation 20 20 20
10) Less Chg NWC (5) 0 0 5
11) Less Capital Expend (60) 0
12) FCF (68) 34 34 39
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SAIS 380.760, 2008
WACC
The WACC method for valuation uses the (after-tax)
cost of capital, rWACC to discount the unlevered FCF
z Bodnar Co’s after-tax weighted average cost of capital
f incorporating the tax shield into average cost of capital gives us
rWACC = [E/(D+E)] rE + [D/(D+E)] rD (1 – τC)
rWACC = [240/400] 12% + [160/400] 7% (1 – 30%) = 9.16%
we can use existing firm’s data because of earlier assumptions
z note this is less than the true weighted average cost of
equity and debt
WACCNOTAX = [E/(D+E)] rE + [D/(D+E)]·rD = rU = rA
WACCNOTAX = rU = rA = [240/400]·12% + [160/400]·7% = 10%
f in fact we can see the rWACC reduces the asset’s true cost of
capital, rU, by exactly the impact of the tax shield term
rWACC = rU - [D/(D+E)] · rD · τC
rWACC = 10% - [160/400]·(7%)·(30%) = 9.16% SAIS 380.760 Lecture 9 Slide # 7
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SAIS 380.760, 2008
Maintaining D/E
Taking the project, $89.7M in assets is added to B/S
MV of (non cash ) assets rise from $400 to $489.7
f to maintain D/V ratio of 0.40, firm must add $89.7 x 0.40 = $35.9
in debt to its B/S today Assets Liabilities
borrow an additional $35.9M Surplus cash 40 Debt 200
» D rises from 200 to 235.9 Other Assets 400 New Debt 35.9
f E rises by initial equity of Heart Watch 89.7 Equity 293.8
Total Assets 529.7 Total D+E 529.7
$32.1 ($68 – $35.9) plus $21.7
in NPV so ΔE = $53.8, => E rises from $240 to $293.8
z or firm could use $35.9M of its $40M surplus cash to fund
project to maintain desired leverage
using surplus cash to buy assets is same as increasing debt
f again the firm would need to contribute $32.1 in new equity
the MV of equity thus Assets Liabilities
rises by 32.1 + the NPV Surplus cash 4.1 Debt 200
of the project, 21.1 Other Assets 400
Heart Watch 89.7 Equity 293.8
f ΔE = 32.1 + 21.7 = $53.8 Total Assets 493.8 Total D+E 493.8
so E => $293.8M SAIS 380.760 Lecture 9 Slide # 9
Debt Capacity
The use of WACC method requires that the firm
maintain constant leverage, D/V
z this implies that the project has a given debt capacity
an amount of debt that it allows the firm to take each period
f debt capacity, Dt = d x VtL
where d = firm’s desired D/V ratio
VtL = expected value at time t = PV of FCF in periods t+1 onward
FCF t +1 + VtL+1
note VtL = where Vt+1L = value of FCF in years
(1 + rWACC )
t+2 onward
f for this project the debt capacity each period (with d = 40%) is
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SAIS 380.760, 2008
Determining PV(ITS)
To determine PV(ITS), we need to specify the
interest tax shield the firm get each year
z this will be a function of the interest rate, the tax rate and
the debt outstanding at the end of the previous year
interest tax shield in year t = Dt-1 x rD x τC
f the debt levels are determined from the debt capacity calculation
Interest Tax Shields 0 1 2 3
Debt capacity, Dt 35.9 25.6 14.3 -
Interest paid, at rD = 7% 2.51 1.79 1.00
Interest tax shield @ τc= 30% 0.75 0.54 0.30
when the firm maintains a target leverage ratio (D/V) , its future
interest tax shields are as risky as its asset value, so the ITS should
be discounted at the assets’ cost of capital, rU
PV(ITS) = 0.75/1.10 + 0.54/1.102 + 0.30/1.103 = $1.4M
f APV valuation:
VL = VU + PV(ITS) = $88.3 + 1.4 = $89.7M
» same as the WACC method estimate SAIS 380.760 Lecture 9 Slide # 12
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SAIS 380.760, 2008
Valuation of Equity
We discount the FCFE at rE
z for this project, we can use the parent firm rE as the
asset risk and leverage of project are same as parent
f Bodnar Co.’s rE = 12%
z value of equity in project with $35.9M in debt financing
with rD at 7% and tax rate τC = 30%
E = E0(FCFE1)/(1+rE) + E0(FCFE2)/(1+rE)2 + E0(FCFE3)/(1+rE)3
= 21.9/(1.12) + 21.5/(1.12)2 + 24/(1.12)3 = $53.8M
same as the equity value of the project from the other methods
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SAIS 380.760, 2008
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SAIS 380.760, 2008
Project’s rU and rE
With an βU = 0.96, the project will have an rU of
rU = rf + βU x (E[rM] – rf) = 6% + 0.96 x 5% = 10.8%
f this is marginally lower than approach using historic RE because
either rf or (E[rM] - rf) is slightly lower now than historically
generally determining rU from betas is safer than from average
historic returns
Project’s rE
z having estimated the project’s rU, we can determine the
rE with an estimates of the firm’s post-project D/V and rD
f if the firm will have a post project D/V = 0.35 (D/E = 0.54) and
this is expected to entail a rD = 6.6% (βD = .12) , then
rE = rU + D/E (rU - rD)
rE = 10.8% + (0.54)(10.8 - 6.6) = 13.1%
f or βE = βU + (D/E)(βU - βD) = 0.96 + (0.54(0.96 – 0.12) = 1.41
rE = rf + βE x (E[RM] – rf) = 6% + 1.41 x 5% = 13.1%
SAIS 380.760 Lecture 9 Slide # 19
Project WACC
Once we have a project’s rE, we can calculate its
WACC
z we just use the project’s rE, and the firm’s post project
rD and D/V and the firm’s tax rate τC
post project rD = 6.6% D/V = 0.35 and τC = 30%
rWACC = [E/V] rE + [D/V] rD (1 – τC)
rWACC = 0.65 x 13.1% + 0.35 x 6.6% x (1 - .30) = 10.1%
z alternatively
rWACC = rU – d x τC x rD
where d is the post project target debt-to-value (D/V) ratio = 0.35
f plugging in
rWACC = 10.8% – 0.35 x 0.30 x 6.6% = 10.1%
z keep in mind that when redoing WACC for a new D/V,
both the rE and rD will change with the new D/V
f rWACC will fall with increasing D, but keep in mind that distress
costs and agency costs will be rising SAIS 380.760 Lecture 9 Slide # 20
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Summary
3 basic advanced DCF valuation methods
z WACC
f uses unlevered FCF and discounts at rWACC < rU to determine VL
z APV
f calculates VU and then separately estimates PV(ITS) to
determine VL
discount rate for ITS depends on leverage assumption
z Flows to Equity
f uses FCFE and discounts at rE to estimate MV of equity
VL = E + D
z other influences
f be aware that finance is very good at determine tax shield
benefit and issuance costs of D or E but has no formulas for
E(CFD) or agency costs
Be sure to read Chpt 19, a great example of these
methods in a realistic situation
SAIS 380.760 Lecture 9 Slide # 30
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