TECHNICAL APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY

The main objectives of the Consultancy Services is to establish the existing and future (over
the entire concession period) traffic estimates along with tollable traffic for the project corridor
i.e Munabao – Tanot Section which would be helpful in estimating the total toll revenue or
annual potential collection of the client/concessionaire for the given concession period
considering various traffic forecast scenarios for the project road, which would be helpful in
taking a decision regarding acquisition of the project road section.
Scope of Services
Traffic survey for ascertaining Annual Potential Collection (APC)
The detailed methodology for carrying out the services is given below:
Study Methodology
To complete the above mentioned tasks comprehensively the Consultants propose following
study methodology.
A. Planning of Traffic Surveys
Within the framework of the study, the following types of traffic surveys will be carried out to
obtain all of the data necessary for satisfactory and reliable estimate of traffic for the horizon
years, to be used in the reliable economic/financial analysis:
 7 days (24hours) Volume Count- On Project Road
 O-D Survey 1 day (24 hours)- On Project Road
 Number Plate Survey (24 hours)- On Project Road
The tentative number of survey locations for each type of survey to be conducted for the study,
are summarized in Table 1. The key map of the project corridor is shown in Figure 1
Table 1: Tentative Number of Traffic Surveys
S. No. Type of Survey Numbers
1 Traffic Volume Count for 7 days (ATCC 3
2 OD Surveys for 24 hours 3
3 Number Plate Survey 3

The procedure for carrying out the surveys and traffic estimation is given below:
Traffic Survey
(i) Automatic Traffic Classified Count (ATCC)
ATCC shall be conducted at the following toll location.
S. No. ATCC Location (Toll Plaza Location) Village Name
1 Km. 41+850 Sundra
2 Km. 114+730 Gunjangrah
3 Km. 201+670 Khuiyala

The survey would be conducted for a period of seven consecutive days covering 24 hours in
each day. Counts will be avoided at periods when travel activity is abnormal due to public
holidays, special social festivals, major accidents, etc. From these surveys, the Annual
Average Daily Traffic (AADT) shall be worked out by applying seasonal variation/correction
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factors. The seasonal factor shall be obtained from past traffic data, if available, or from the
secondary data of fuel sales in the project influence area. The traffic volume surveys will be
conducted based on IRC codes supplemented by various accepted international practices for
7 day, 24 hour volumes classified and recorded for every consecutive 15 minutes interval. The
objective of the surveys will be to determine the base year classified traffic flows on the
surrounding network, which can be used for forecasting the future travel demand for proposed
toll location.
The ATCC survey separately count the defense vehicle as its major traffic in this area and
exempted from the toll. The survey format is given in Annexure 1 and Annexure 1A
(ii) Origin – Destination Survey
This survey will be conducted to determine the existing travel pattern of the road users of the
corridor and surrounding road network. Road side interview method will be adopted to gather
data on the trip purpose, trip length, socio-economic background of passengers, commodity
type value for commercial vehicles, loading pattern of goods vehicles and preference of route
based on toll on various competing roads. The O-D survey shall also include questions on
frequency of travel, which is foremost important in our project.
The O-D survey would be carried out for 24 hours (1 day) on any weekday along with the
classified traffic volume counts (i.e. parallel to the 7-Day counts) at the each toll plaza. The
survey will be conducted using a random sampling method covering reasonably adequate
sample size for satisfactory expansion of the travel pattern to the population. The trip length
of local traffic in proposed corridor will also be determined from the roadside interview survey.
(iii) Number Plate Survey
The number plate survey shall be conducted continuously for 24 hours for tollable commercial
vehicles. This shall be done to find the share of commercial vehicles having vehicle registration
within the same district in which the toll plaza is located. The data collected will be used to
estimate the proportion of commercial traffic plying on the project corridor, which will be eligible
for local concession, for the purpose of toll revenue/APC estimation.

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B. Secondary Data
All the secondary data required for estimation of growth rates for the traffic on the project road
will be collected from different sources, especially from Government publications. This data
will also help in estimating the generated and induced traffic due to the development of the
road. These include following data
 Demographic profile/characteristics of study area
 Socio-economic profile (employment and economic parameters)
 Vehicle registration data
 Past traffic census data (as it will be available)
 Land use development plan of the project influence area
 Profile of industrial development viz. industrial development along project
corridor, industrial parks etc.
 Road improvement proposals within project influence area (NHs and state roads)
 Fuel consumption data along the project road corridor (from fuel stations)

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C. Data Analysis
Traffic Characteristic
Classified traffic volume count data shall be analyzed to assess average daily traffic (ADT),
composition, peak hour volume, daily and hourly variation of traffic etc. and passenger car
units adopting IRC guidelines. The Annual Average Daily (AADT) Traffic shall also be
assessed using ADT by applying seasonal variation factor obtained from fuel sale data along
the project corridor. Tollable traffic shall also be estimated considering the different categories
of the traffic streams paying normal and concessional toll rates.
Also the number plate survey shall determine the volume of commercial traffic eligible for
concessions on account being registered in the same district in which the proposed toll plaza
is located.
Travel Characteristics
A traffic zone system will be developed for coding and analyzing the O-D data. The zones will
be defined in such a way that the traffic on each linear and spatial segment of the project
highway can be estimated from the assignment. The data collected will be coded and
processed to eliminate all illogical data and entry errors. The survey data shall first be used to
generate location specific O-D matrices, and thereafter the combined matrix (global matrix for
the region) shall be generated for the internal and external zones adopted for the project
influence area.
Desire line diagrams will be prepared to give an understanding of the travel pattern in the
region and along the corridor. Apart from development of O-D matrices, O-D data shall be
analyzed to assess the share of local and through traffic, commodity share, average trip
length, trip length distribution, distribution of tollable vehicle categories, and proportion of
vehicles likely to use the improved facility as user of single entry, multiple entry and monthly
pass holder.
Origin-Destination Surveys for passenger and goods vehicles are also intended to determine
the pattern of traffic flows by purpose and commodity, with their origins and destinations, so
that estimates of the changes in traffic volume with the passage of time and development in
the PIA may be made on a more rational basis. The sample O-D survey information will be
expanded using appropriate expansion factors for each vehicle type based on the 24-hour
volume counts for the day of O-D survey.
The traffic volume counts and the OD data collected will be used to estimate the traffic volume
on the proposed toll location.
Traffic Forecast
Based on the detailed review of the socio-economic parameters, a set of traffic zone-wise
economic indices shall be generated. Based on the trend of the economic growth for each
traffic zone, these indicators will be used for estimating the transport demand elasticities,
which in turn shall be used to estimate the rates of growths realized so far in the influence
area. Prospect of the economy in the region characterized by the economic, industrial and
infrastructure development plans in future would be used to estimate the growth rates of each
traffic zones so as to project the future traffic patterns.
Potential future traffic on the road for the concession period will be estimated on the basis of
socio-economic conditions of the project area and the region.
Alternate traffic forecasting techniques like trend analysis and econometric modeling shall be
evaluated and best method shall be used with valid reasons for its use.
Estimation of Developmental, Diverted and Induced Traffic

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Using the estimated growth rates, the current tollable and non tollable traffic moving on the
project road, will be forecasted for the concession period and beyond. In addition to this normal
traffic growth, various other components of traffic will also be added which may arise due to
improvement of the project road and hence better accessibility of the surrounding area. These
components are development traffic, diverted (both positive and negative) traffic and induced
traffic. Thus diversion of traffic to / from upgraded new highway facility, induction of traffic due
to change in travel behaviour of road users caused by new facility, generation of traffic due to
infrastructure development caused by upgraded accessibility and diverted traffic to or from the
project road to the surrounding network in project influence area, would also be taken care of
for estimation of toll able traffic for different modes

Development Traffic
This represents the increase in traffic, if any, that may arise from improvements and
development of adjacent land uses due to added accessibility and mobility and associated
new policy and decisions to locate development activities within the influence area of the
project road. This is generally considered to be over and above the development, which would
have taken place otherwise, had the new or improved highway not been constructed. Based
on the data collected on existing and proposed industrial development in the project influence
area, the traffic likely to be generated due to these developments will be estimated.
Diverted Traffic
This represents the traffic attracted to the project highway due to better level of service
provided, by way of loss to alternative routes. The surrounding road network will be studied in
detail. Based on the traffic and travel pattern observed and the speed-delay surveys
conducted on the entire road network in the project influence area, the traffic likely to be
diverted to/from the project road will be estimated. Any diversion of traffic from or to the project
road due to introduction of toll would also be assessed.
Induced Traffic
This represents the increase in traffic as a result of the increased demand for transport, if any,
induced by the improvement of the highway. In other words, this is the release of suppressed
or latent demand. The traffic likely to be induced on the project road will be estimated based
on the understanding of travel pattern, existing road condition, and the potential for existing
land uses to release extra demand which might have been suppressed prior to the road
improvement.
Estimation of Future Traffic
Based on the potential growth represented in the growth rates separately for each mode of
traffic and the potential diverted traffic, induced and developmental traffic, the future traffic
shall be estimated for various sections of the proposed road.

The traffic demand estimates will be completed for the selected scenario from these:
 Optimistic (High) Traffic Growth Rates (Optimistic case)
 Pessimistic (Low) Traffic Growth Rates (Low case)
 Most Likely Traffic Growth Rates (Base case)
Forecast of Tollable Traffic
Tollable traffic shall be projected for the entire concession period. The projected tollable traffic
will be estimated for various streams stipulated in the tolling schedule of the project. This will
also take into account the frequency of travel permitted within a given category and the various
concessions allowed to the traffic. Tolling strategy based on various tolling systems like
manual toll collection, ETC etc. will be assessed to enable monitoring and control of revenue.
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Revenue Estimation/Annual Potential Collection (APC)
Toll revenue shall be estimated based on toll rates specified in the tolling schedule of the
project, modified by subsequent notifications of the Government in this regard. The base rate
shall be duly escalated using trend in the WPI, and the formula provided in the Notification.
While the closed system of tolling is not possible (or not envisaged in India) any possibility of
leakage of traffic and various applicable concessions will be considered for estimation of the
toll revenue. Estimation of toll revenue would be done broadly into following category and with
breakup of daily tollable traffic into the following categories (categories to be based on tolling
schedule):
(a) Through traffic
(b) Daily Discount Ticket/Monthly Discount Ticket
(c) Local traffic, monthly fee payment (with concession)
(d) Exempted vehicles
(e) The toll revenue will be estimated for all the three scenarios of the traffic forecast i.e base
case, low case and optimistic case.
D. Time Frame
The Consultant propose following time frame for the assignment
 Completion of Traffic Surveys – 20th day from date of commencement
 Submission of Draft Report – 30th day from date of commencement
 Submission of Final Report – 3 days after receiving comments on Draft
Report


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 Annexure – 1
National Highways Authority of India
Construction / upgrdation to 2 lane with paved shoulder of NH-70 from Munabao (NH-25E)-Sundra-Myajlar-Dhanana-Asutar-Ghotaru-Tanot (Design Chainage km.0+000 to
Km. 46+000 & Km. 82+600 to Km. 310+467) under phase-1 of Bharatmala Pariyojna (Total Length 273.867 km) on Hybrid Annuity Mode (HAM) in the state of Rajasthan

VIDEO COUNT SURVEY

(As per IRC:9-1972, with Minor Modifications)
Direction of Traffic : UP/DN From .……….……...……To…...………..……… District:…….………..………. Place:……..……………..

Road Name: NH……….. KM/Chainage:.……….…...…………………………... Date…………………………..Day………………………..

Motorised Traffic Non-Motorised Traffic

Passenger Vehicles Passenger Vehicles Goods Vehicles
Time Cars /Jeep/Van/Utility Vehicle Taxi 3 Wheeler/Tempo Two wheeler Mini Bus Standard Bus Cycle Cycle Hand Cart Animal Drawn Others
(15 Min. Rickshaw Cart (Please
Interval) Specify)

From …

To ……

Non-Tollable
Except
Defence
Passenger
Vehicle

Non-Tollable
Defence
Passenger
Vehicle

From …

To ……

Non-Tollable
Except
Defence
Passenger
Vehicle

Non-Tollable
Defence
Passenger
Vehicle

Hourly Total

Name and Signature of Enumerator with date: …………………………………………. Name and Signature of Supervisor with date: ………………………………
* Non Tollable Vehicles :
(i) Minister's Convoy, (ii) Defence Vehicle (Army, Navy, Airforce) (iii) Police Vehicle (iv) Fire Fighting Vehicle (v) Furenal Van Intercontinental Consultants and Technocrats Pvt. Ltd.
(vi) Ambulance and (vii) Govt. Vehicles A-8 Green Park , New Delhi
 Annexure – 1A
National Highways Authority of India
Construction / upgrdation to 2 lane with paved shoulder of NH-70 from Munabao (NH-25E)-Sundra-Myajlar-Dhanana-Asutar-Ghotaru-Tanot (Design Chainage
km.0+000 to Km. 46+000 & Km. 82+600 to Km. 310+467) under phase-1 of Bharatmala Pariyojna (Total Length 273.867 km) on Hybrid Annuity Mode (HAM) in the
state of Rajasthan
VIDEO COUNT SURVEY
(As per IRC:9-1972, with Minor Modifications)
Direction Direction of Traffic : UP/DN From .……….……...…To…...………..……… District:…….………..………. Place:……..……………..

Road Name: NH…………... KM/Chainage:.……….…...…………………………………… Date…………………………..Day………………………..

Motorised Traffic
Goods Vehicles Agricultural Vehicles
Time L.G.V. Ordinary Trucks MAV Tractor Tractor with Trailor
(15 Min. 3-Wheeler 4-Wheeler 2-Axle 3-Axle 4-6 Axle More Then 6 Axle
Interval)

From …

To ……
Non-
Tollable
Except
DefenceGo
od Vehicle

Non
Tollable
DefenceG
ood
Vehicle

From …

To ……

Non-
Tollable
Except
DefenceGo
od Vehicle

Non
Tollable
DefenceG
ood
Vehicle
Hourly
Total
Name and Signature of Enumerator with date: ………………………………………….

* Non Tollable Vehicles : Name and Signature of Supervisor with date: ………………………………………….

(i) Minister's Convoy, (ii) Defence Vehicle (Army, Navy, Airforce) (iii) Police Vehicle (iv) Fire Fighting Vehicle (v) Furenal Van Intercontinental Consultants and Technocrats Pv
(vi) Ambulance and (vii) Govt. Vehicles A-8 Green Park , New Delhi