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THE STRATEGICAL GEOMETRY OF VLADIMIR PUTIN
A geopolitical analysis
PAVEL KARPOV
Published by Arctogaia, February 2001
 
BEGINNING OF THE BIG GAME  

Spatial definitions even more often lay at the basis of the supreme political
decisions in Russia. The inexorable logic of geopolitical reality is ever more
apparent in the steps taken by the government and the President. The outlines
of the new global projects – earlier the yearning of scientists-romantics, military
strategists and courageous analysers - begin slowly but rather precisely to be
loomed and even materialise in concrete deals and decisions. After trying for a
long time to be squeezed in Procuste’s bed of extreme liberal and pro-western
trends, Russia begins to realise more and more clearly its originality and special
place on the planet, and even- I shall not be afraid of this word - its mission.  
 In this connection, two major events, from the point of view of geopolitical
strategy, bear the mark of the right direction: they were the signing in
St.Petersburg of the agreement between Russia, India and Iran about the
opening of the so-called "Southern transport paths" and of course, widely
illustrated by the press, the visit of the head of our state to India. The turn of
Russia  to the East, so much discussed both at home and abroad, practically
happened. 

 Here the most important thing, of course, are not the sweet, pathetical and
superficial references to strategic partnership. We have been always persuaded
about where all verbal refinements lead to - as a matter of fact, a mere exercise
for stretching lips and eyebrows. Let's even remember for how long our
diplomacy gave rise to the formation of partnership relations with Peking, as a
matter of fact remaining an empty play of words and imagination. And all this
bravado with loud manifests about the multipolar world and whatever
conceptual alternative to the US led “New world order” looked, in the least,
confused and lacking both method and concreteness. NATO bombs
Yugoslavia, the Russian leaders begin to reactivate a long time forgotten
patriotic lexicon. NATO ceases to bomb, patriotism instantly disappears. And so
on. Anyway the initiatives of Vladimir Putin on this plan radically differ from past
intuitive and chaotic hitches of the Russian authorities.  
 The geopolitical axes - about which already in his times Evgeny Primakov
spoke - from virtual lines, not much more than feelings, turn to the real fact.
Because the formation of a new geopolitical construction on continent does not
simply go through activating Moscow’s contacts with Teheran and Delhi, but
also intensifying the connections between two last centres. Thus, in the
southern coastal part of the Eurasian continent the contours of the future
perspective geopolitical figure appeared – a strategic trigon, at the vertices of
which stand the above mentioned capitals.  

 
 
 HISTORICAL PREDESTINATION  

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 As it is known, the choice of one’s allies is determined by the absence of

serious contradictions and the presence of common short-term and long-term
concerns defined by the geopolitical condition of this or that country. In this plan
the situation is set for the best. The civilisations of Iran and India belong to an
overland type, their traditional principles are strong. Both countries are situated
in a coastal zone of Eurasia strategically significant for Russia and have a
natural exit to the Indian Ocean. For a long time both Iran and India laid under
the colonial oppression of Great Britain. And the fact is rather remarkable, that
Great Britain strictly adhered to strategy of containment of Russia barring the
sea connections of the Indian Ocean. So, if India fully entered the composition
of the British empire, while Iran kept its formal independence, England
managed to establish its influence on the southern part of the country, near the
Persian Gulf shores. Any attempts of the Russian empire to deeply advance in
Central Asia and the Near East roused a fiery resistance from the English.
Especially zealously they preserved India. Already then realising the community
of Russian and Indian concerns, and the danger of a rapprochement of the two
countries for the British empire in region, Great Britain made everything to not
allow it. The greatest danger was the possibility of contact between Russia and
India through a common land border. By the end of the XIX century Russia was
strongly consolidated in Turkestan and had opened its way to the borders with
Afghanistan. At that time Afghanistan was the opponent of England and waged
with her constant wars. In spite of the fact that during these wars Afghanistan
lost huge territories (constituting 1/3 of modern Pakistan), Britain, taking the
north-eastern provinces, consciously did not touch a small tract of the mountain
province of Badakhshan, the so-called Vakhan corridor, leaving it to
Afghanistan. This region became a natural buffer-zone between India and
Russia. Later, when the colonial power of Britain fell and India was divided into
actual India and islamic Pakistan, the West did everything possible, in order to
even more distance independent India from its potential allies in Eurasia. As a
result of border conflict, Pakistan - supported and armed by the US and
Western countries, managed to establish its control on the northern part of the
Jammu and Kashmir state, having thus expanded the same geographical
barrier between USSR and India.  

 Iran, for a long time dependent from the US, as a result of the anti-western
islamic revolution began to play the role of autonomous centre in the Near East.
The ideological differences between Iran and USSR handicapped the political
rapprochement of the two countries. The massive geopolitical changes occurred
in the world during the last 10 years have essentially changed this situation. The
former balance of power in region was shaken. Iran found itself in an arc of
instability. Around its borders winds of war are blowing (Iraq, Kurdistan,
Karabakh, Afghanistan), Turkey and Pakistan, geopolitical rivals of Iran in the
Near East and in Southern Asia, boosted their role, groupings of American and
British troops, enemy to Iran, were deployed in the countries of the Arabian
peninsula, the status quo of the oil rich Caspian Sea appeared under threat.
Hostility of the West and instability around its borders press Iran to search for a
new strategic solutions for reinforcing its positions and ensuring its own safety.
Russia appeared that natural, geopolitically predetermined ally, the link to which
solves most of the problems.  
 
 FIRST STEPS ON THE PATH TO EURASIA  

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 A severe check has been at last delivered to the grand masters from the
Council on Foreign Relations. Russia has managed to overcome their artful
combinations, whose purpose was to “lock" Moscow into the North, having
deprived it of strategic independence and geographical room for indispensable
manoeuvres. 
 One of the major strategic lines of the West concerning Russia was the policy
of expelling it from the transport-communication sphere, depriving it of its vital
status as geographical bridge between quickly developing "Eastern dragons"
and advanced Europe. The target of the attack is the Trans-siberian as the
generative communication structure of the continent, capable of massive
development and ramification. It is more than clear, that for Russia as an
overland power, occupying the central position in Eurasia, the loss of such
natural geographically founded function as the transport link through the system
of advanced land communications across the basic spaces of the continent will
have the most negative consequences. In this connection the project was born
of a trans-asiatic main, the new “Silk Road”, which in the intentions of its
architects should pass through the countries of Asia, including former USSR
republics around Russia, and bridge Paris to Shanghai. This route should be
shorter than the Trans-siberian and faster by one week. It was in a parallel way
supposed to solve also the problem of reorientation of the basic flows of
Caspian oil and Turkmeni gas on new main pipelines around Russia. However
on the path of this invention there stood some severe problems. One of them is
islamic Iran, geopolitical opponent of the West, another is Kurdistan and its
rebel leader Ochalan, and also the general instability of the countries through
which the Asian part of the route should actually pass. The ephemerality of the
project was also caused by the huge number of transitional countries, which in
itself made carrying goods along the “New Silk Road” economically unprofitable
and physically dangerous.  

 The Russian answer to the new challenge had to be waited for some years. But
better late than never. It was obvious that it was necessary to boost the role of
the Trans-siberian, to develop a main, to link it to a perspective southern
direction. Prime minister Michael Kazyanov has signed the fatal agreement in
the Northern capital - St.Petersburg. Now we have the so-called "Southern
transport path", to which India and Iran are connected! Goods from India
heading for the European countries will now go not by the maritime way through
the Suez channel, and through overland mains: from the Bombay port by sea
up to the Iranian ports in the Persian bay, further by rail up to the Caspian sea,
by sea to Astrakhan, and from there by rail to Europe. In the opinion of those
who elaborated the route, it is much more favourable and also faster than the
former by one week at least. Besides, according to Mikhail Kazyanov, Russia
can get from transit up to 500 millions dollars yearly. And the sum can even
grow in case of increasing commodity turnover between Europe and India, and
also in case of connection to it by other countries in the region, for instance
Pakistan and Iraq. In the same connection, the Russian head of the government
expressed its intents about modernising with the assistance of the interested
parties the Trans-siberian main, increasing its capacity and also its speed
regime by 2-3 times.  
 On a strategic plan, the opening of a southern route strengthens Russian
connections with India and Iran, and also between these South-Asian countries.
The new communication alternative grants our southern partners a definite

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operational room, making them less dependent from sea communications in the
Indian Ocean, vulnerable to US and UK influence. Now Iranian and Indian fleets
have a common purpose in the Persian Gulf - safety check of cargo ships, that
will force these countries to co-ordinate their naval activity in the region, to
exchange informations and even to act in common: what in the most advanced
stage will answer to Russian geopolitical interests, and also to the concept of
building the Eurasist block.  

 On a strategic plan, this route gives Russia a chance of unconstrained access
to the waters of the Persian Gulf, which actually means the failure of the West’s
strategy aimed at the isolation of Russia from the southern coastal zones of
Eurasia. The “Anaconda Cordon” is breached. But the game goes on.  
 
 
 FROM AXIS TO TRIGON  

 The virtual axes starting in Moscow and ending in Teheran and Delhi were
charged, at last, with a material content. Nothing does consolidate room as
much as communication lines, through which, as through blood vessels, flows
of cargoes and people circulate, adding an element of organisation,
completeness to the landscape composition.  

 However in the south of Eurasia, according to the geopolitical interests of

Russia and its southern partners, it is appropriate not to speak about axes, but
about a concrete geometric figure – a strategic trigon, in which Russia, Iran and
India should enter. Since Russia’s connections with these countries separately,
outside of a general concept for the South of Eurasia, would be deprived of
logic finality and due effectiveness.  

 To the formation of a trigon there are all reasons determined not only by the
common interests of countries, but also by concurring world circumstances. We
have a unique case, when states situated in immediate proximity one another
have similar problems in the region, are confronted with common challenges,
and also have a similar position about major foreign policy issues.  

 The figure of a trigon is not incidentally chosen. It is not an empty whim of its
author, but reflects a spatial vision of the connection of the three countries in the
existing geopolitical structure in the south of continent. All three sides of this
trigon cross zones of instability inside Eurasia, from which derive threats
differing on scale and kind. All these zones can be used by Atlantism against
continental countries for destabilising their conditions, artfully arousing the
centres of military conflicts. In this connection the sides of the geopolitical trigon
coincide with the vectors of application of joint efforts from the above mentioned
countries, and under certain conditions can solve a mass of strategic issues.  
 So, for example, the Moscow-Delhi axis runs through the vast regions of Middle
and Southern Asia. There are difficult conditions in Tadjikistan, civil war in
Afghanistan, border conflict of India with Pakistan in Kashmir, religious-ethnic
extremism, separatism, flows of narcotics and weapons common to the whole
region. If present trends persist, the situation could become seriously
complicated in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kirghizia, the Sinkiang-Uigursk
autonomous region of People’s Republic of China. Here is evident the precise
line of Pakistan, and consequently also of its major partner, the US, on

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strengthening its own positions in Southern Asia at the expense of Russia, India
and Iran. For this purpose there exist all conditions, the situation in Afghanistan,
Tadjikistan and Kashmir is shaken. The attempt is undertaken, using the
religious factor, to create a constant source of chaos and instability, a centre of
geopolitical influence of the West, which will be conveniently used for exerting
control over the coastal zones of Eurasia and for hindering robust links between
Russia, India and Iran.  

 Before India stands the serious problem to get back under control the northern
part of the state of Kashmir occupied by Pakistan, to get closer to the Afghani
Badakhshan, on whose narrow line already stand Russian frontier guards -
there lies the long-awaited overland bridge to Russia, the perspective
communication link Moscow-Delhi, now already through CIS countries. Besides
India should solve the problem of the separatism and religious extremism in
many border regions with Pakistan. Here the interests of India and Russia
coincide. Besides it is also in the interest of Iran.  

 So, Pakistan and Afghanistan appear to be surrounded from the north by

forces of anti-talibani opposition and the military presence of Russia, from the
east by India and from the west by Iran. It practically means the geopolitical
isolation and paralysis of pro-western forces, preventing their active operating in
the region. A classic geopolitical combination, about which a thousand years
ago wrote the Chinese strategist Sun Bin in his tract "Sun-Tsi" - the strategic
encirclement of the rival. Besides Iran, being an authoritative islamic country,
can under certain conditions act as an intermediary in settling religious conflicts
both in Central Asia and in India, which will deprive extremism of its major
ideological basis, will stop the gamble with using religious slogans. Such move
can become the most serious breakthrough in the Eurasian geopolitics. 

 The geopolitical axis Moscow-Teheran is in itself no less relevant. It also solves

a set of problems rather similar to the ones described above. The given
imaginary line crosses the North-Caucasian region and Transcaucasia – i.e.,
coincides with the Southern strategic direction, where by virtue of its
significance the most efficient and diverse grouping of Russian troops are
deployed. In the zone of common interests stay the unauthorised
internationalisation of the Caspian Sea, the joint assimilation of its oil-fields; the
containment of Turkey’s ambitious aims, the opposition the panturkism, as an
anti-Eurasist political line; the solution of the Kurdish question along a scheme
alternative to the West. Besides, Iran is the most powerful islamic centre in the
Near East, around which under certain conditions can develop the integration of
Arab countries, for example Syria, Iraq, possibly Lebanon. Under the influence
of Iran stay some movements in Palestine, Algeria, Egypt, the Kurdish rebels,
force of anti-talibani opposition in Afghanistan. 

 Tight interaction on the Teheran-Delhi line looms perspective enough. It

undoubtedly corresponds  to the common logic of construction of the Eurasian
block, and in the best way complements the Moscow-Teheran, Moscow-Delhi
axes, forming a finished and rigorous figure. As we already said, the two
countries share many interests and problems, which could be more easily
solved by common decision. And this refers not only to pressure on Pakistan
and Talibans, though at present this is the major task.  

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 Rather relevant in the contacts between the two countries is the possibility of
co-ordinating steps aimed at expelling Anglo-American forces from the Persian
Gulf and controlling sea communications in the Indian Ocean. In the Indo-
Iranian union Iran can take care of the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea west of
India, which is included in the zone of responsibility of the Western fleet of
Indian sea forces. This will allow India to direct its basic efforts southward,
without worrying about Pakistan. The southward expansion is an indispensable
condition for turning India into a rigorous regional superpower. It is also
determined by the geostrategic situation of the country. Definite threats for India
will come not only from the western (Pakistan) and eastern directions (China),
but also from the south. Largest in the region, the naval and air-force Anglo-
American base of Diego-Garcia is a key link in the strategy of containment of
Eurasia in the Indian Ocean, and a reliable element of check upon maritime
lines from the Asian-Pacific region to Europe and Africa. In India this is well
understood and, what is most important, they are not going to accept the
situation. Among the Indian military leadership plans are already echoed about
the creation at the beginning of the XXI century of a third naval grouping within
the national sea forces – the Southern fleet, whose zone of responsibility will
include no more and no less than the Indian Ocean with all its strategically
relevant communications. The Southern fleet is expected to counter Anglo-
American forces and hinder their operating. This will put an end to the American
seigniorage in the Indian Ocean, recovering the legitimate right to its
possession. The check of the Eurasist block on the Southern seas and
communications will have the most serious geopolitical consequences for the
whole world.  

 The Indian Ocean must also become the most important long-term priority of
the Teheran-Delhi axis and of the whole strategic trigon.  
 
GEOMETRY OF THE CONTINENT  

 The geopolitical trigon Moscow-Teheran-Delhi is not the only figure of such

scale and significance. The Eurasian continent still holds in itself a lot of
different variants of spatial structures, which can be successfully built in the
general organisational scheme of the Heartland. In the light of the Kremlin’s last
initiatives and of the general evolutionary trends in the region’s situation, the
given figure simply represents the most mature and, at present, real and
significant element. 

 It is important to understand that axes, lines, trigons and different strategic
figures acquire on earth a different meaning. Eurasia is a continent of variety
and plurality of forms. The difference of landscapes complementing each other,
together constituting a unique continental harmony of spaces, a crossroad of
cultures, civilisations and super-ethnoses - all this constitutes in its totality a still
undeciphered, maybe mystical design. Russia, laying at the centre of this
design, should always be a key element and fundamental law of this original
Eurasian geometry. It is predetermined by geography. For preserving order on
the continent, we are simply obliged to subtly feel its weakest impulses, to catch
the directions of the invisible vectors of political efforts, to guess the rhythms of
ethnic splashes and passionary explosions.  

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 In this connection the government of the country and the President act in a
geopolitically correct key, generating firm hopes of awakening the truth of
Russian politics. It is yet unclear  whether Eurasism is the Kremlin’s secret
ideology, having realised there the role of Russia and its present place in the
world, its heavy organisational mission, or whether this process goes at a
subconscious level. One way or another, the spatial thinking of the Russian
establishment, its evolution on the side of the geopolitical imperatives of
eurasism cannot but arouse approval and support.  
 There remains the hope that the co-operation with India and Iran will go on just
under the above described scheme, and will not fall into oblivion, as Evgeny
Primakov’s “strategic partnership” with China and India. Moscow, sharply
activating its policies in every direction, should more widely look at Eurasia: it
still hides a lot of most interesting geopolitical combinations and perspective
figures, from which the solid foundations of the Eurasian block can be laid.     
 

 
 
The " New Silk Road Land Bridge " project
The following very interesting remarks about the “New Silk Road” project are
quoted from Robert Steuckers’s contribution to the "Synergon-Deutschland"
Colloquium, April, 24-25 1999, and to the Conference on the War in Yugoslavia
organised by "Lega Nord", Milan, May 6 1999. The full text is published by
Synergon Online.
After the burst of the Yugoslavia conflict, on March 25 1999, any kind of
european, russian, euro-russian, eurasian or german-russian geopolitics
(adjectives are no longer so important!) must:
Firtly, be an answer to Zbigniew Brzezinski’s project outlined in his book “The
Grand Chessboard”.
Secondly, reply to the practical and real strategy which stems from the
headquarters’ reading of Brzeszinski’s theses. This strategy is called "New Silk
Road Land Bridge Project” (…) 
The "New Silk Road Land Bridge" is anyway built upon very old geopolitical and
geostrategical reflections. It represents a re-actualisation of the “containment”
strategy applied during the cold war.

 It is aimed at creating a barrier of states and bases containing Russia far from
the seas and from the Indian Ocean. Such barrier starts from the west on the
Adriatic Sea (with Albania) and ends in China. Just as the Silk Road in the times
of Marco Polo, it links the two most populated sides of the eurasian continental
mass. In military terms, this barrier would be formed by an Albania reorganised
by UCK partisans, organised by American and Turkish officers, by a Macedonia
where the Slavs would have been purposely reduced to a minority to the benefit
of Albanians strengthened by Kosovo refugees, by Turkey as the pivot of the
new NATO, by Azerbaijan which has given to NATO the most important aerial
base of the former Red Army, and Uzbekistan near the Caspian Sea, having
denounced the pact which linked it to Russia (within the framework of CIS). This
Turkey-centred mechanism will soon be joined by Georgia (having de-
solidarised too from CSI accession pact), and Chechnya, which already
disrupted the Caspian pipelines road to the Russian port of Novorossisk on the
Black Sea. Northward, in the Ural region, two islamic autonomous republics of
the Russian Federation, Tatarstan and Bakhkortostan, and southward

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Ingushetsia (bordering Chechnya and equally islamic), by declarations of their
respective presidents expressed their reluctance against solidarity – voiced by
the overwhelming majority of the Russians – with the Serbs in the fight that
opposes them to NATO and UCK Albanian Kosovars manipulated by
Washington and Ankara. In this way, east of Moscow, but west of the Urals,
along the course of an important affluent of the Volga, the Kama, south of the
less ecumenical regions north of the Urals, there are regions liable to start an
open rebellion against Moscow, if the Russian power tries to dislocate the
American-Turkish barrier from the Adriatic Sea to the Chinese border.
 
Tr. from russian and french M.Conserva