Compliance Engineering Journal ISSN NO: 0898-3577

A Statistical Study on the Production of Crops Before and After

Gaja Cyclone in the Delta Region around Thanjavur District
Dr. R.Arumugam1, B. Sri Ranjani2, M.Rajathi3
Assistant Professor1,3, M.Phil scholar2
1,2
Department of Mathematics, Periyar Maniammai Institute of Science & Technology,
Thanjavur-613 403, Tamilnadu, India
3
Department of Education, Periyar Maniammai Institute of Science & Technology,
Thanjavur-613 403, Tamilnadu, India
Email : arumugamr2@gmail.com, ranjanibaskar97@gmail.com,
rajathiarumugam@pmu.edu

Abstract
In this paper we are highlighting about the cultivation and production of some major crops in
Thanjavur district before and after Gaja cyclone and finding the growth rate of crops in the Thanjavur
district after the Gaja cyclone and the participation of women and men in cultivation and production area.
Likewise, we locate the average production of crops after and before gaja cyclone in the year 2017-2019.
To find the number of men and women worked in a particular crop in the affected area and find which
crop gains a maximum irrigated area. This is helps to take a remedy action on lower growth rate crop in
particular area in the district. For this study we are using chi square test, auto correlation, partial auto
correlation, and descriptive statistics are applied through SPSS software.
Keywords: Irrigated, Mortality, Growth rate, Impact

1. INTRODUCTION
In metrology, a cyclone is a huge scale air mass that rotates around a strong center of low
atmospheric pressure. The most extreme cyclone can attain wind speeds of more than 300 mph (480
km/h) and stay a ground for dozens of miles (perhaps more than 100km). Cyclones are mostly formed
over the South Pacific and Indian Ocean due to pressure variations. Punithavathi [6], J.Tamilenthi, S.
furthermore, Baskaran, R expresses that An investigation of thane typhoon and its effect in Tamil Nadu in
2012. Exceptionally extreme cyclonic tempest Gaja was the 6th named twister of the 2018 north Indian
sea violent wind season [7]. Gaja wreks ruin in T.N the Hindu unique reporter in 2018. Gaja Formed on
November 10, 2018 and Gaja disseminated on November 16, 2018.
The violent wind with high speed twists blasting up to 120km an hour sheared trees, cabins, tiled
houses and each other structure in its way. Nearly the whole delta spread over Nagapattinam, Tiruvarur
and Thanjavur locale thought about the storehouse of the express, the neighboring Pudukottai and even
inside Tiruchirappalli and Dindigul areas lurched under its effect as the violent wind advanced toward the
Arabian ocean in Kerala. After 2010, numerous tornado influenced the Tamil Nadu coast for instance,
thane (2011), nilam (2012), madi (2013), roanu (2016), nothing (2016), vardah (2016), ockhi (2017), and
GAJA violent wind (2018). Through the tropical violent winds happen in numerous pieces of the east
shore of India, the focal Tamil Nadu coast is one of the perfect tropical zones, P.V.S. Raju [1].,
Jayaraman potty, U.C. Mohanty, states that "Expectation of extreme tropical twisters over the cove of
Bengal in 1997.

The violent wind cleared in wind and water, decimating lakhs of trees, including banana, cashew,
mango, sugarcane, coconut on a large number of hectares. The paddy harvest of the samba/thaladi seasons
was additionally harmed in certain spots and fundamentally in Thanjavur. The factual investigation was
completed to discover the generation of harvests in Gaja violent wind influenced zone in Thanjavur.

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Figure: 1 Ocean waves Figure: 2 Formation- Gaja cyclones

The NGO group had a dialog with District Collector Mr.Annadurai, IAS, Thanjavur and Mr.Raja Gopal
Sunkura IAS, Additional Project Director, Gaja Cyclone Reconstruction Rehabilitation and Rejuvenation
venture – Thanjavur and Pudukottai. Punithavathi [6], J. Tamilenthi, S and Baskaran, R expresses that An
investigation of thane violent wind and its effects in Tamil Nadu in 2012.The District Collector
mentioned the group to visit the Gaja tornado influenced fields and collaborate with ranchers to
comprehend their needs and possibility to advance the business bundle created by the Department of
Agriculture, Government of Tamil Nadu. Furthermore, the Project Director N.VISWANATHAN talked
about the need to concentrate on the recovery system for little holders and agrarian workers with unique
consideration regarding ladies headed families. As needs be, the group visited the Pattukottai thaluk
towns and talked about with the ranchers. A logical group from ICAR-CPCRI led a quick appraisal on the
harm effect of violent wind Gaja on coconut palms specifically. Punithavathi [6], J. Tamilenthi, S and
Baskaran, R expresses that an investigation of thane twister and its effects in Tamil Nadu in 2012.

Figure 3: Damaged sugarcane Figure 4: After Gaja cyclone

In a few influenced towns over 75% of the palms were harmed and evacuated prompting total
loss of palms in the area and seriously influencing the occupation of coconut ranchers, Punithavathi [6].,
J. Tamilenthi, S. what's more, Baskaran, R. states that An investigation of thane typhoon and its effects in
Tamil Nadu in 2012.

As on November 22, 63 individuals were executed by the strom, Tamil Nadu Government looks
for Rs 15,000 crore from focus to reconstruct after violent wind Gaja. Around 1 lakh electric shafts, 1000
transformers, 201 power substations and 5000 vessels were crushed by the tornado. A large number of
dairy cattle, winged animals kicked the bucket because of the violent wind 63 individuals passed on for
the most part in the locale of Thiruvarur, Thanjavur, and Pudukottai. Around 18000 hectares of coconut
trees were harmed and generally evacuated absolutely 56000 hectares of yields and trees were crushed
because of the violent wind. Through this proof, Tamil Nadu coast represents one of the cyclonic
defenseless zones of north Indian sea [4]. During the gaja twister 78% obliteration of horticultural
harvests were happened around there. The significant yields influenced were Pulses, Rice, Ground nuts,

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Banana, coconut and Casuarina plants, Cumbu, Ragi, Gingelly. The financial misfortunes endured by the
cultivators were wretched. Of these, beats (half), Paddy (60-75%), Vegetables (30-half), Banana (100%),
Casuarina (50-70%), and Coconut (95%) were demolished during the Gaja typhoon. It was seen that
following one month 45% of creation was reestablished in the violent wind influenced region.
Annihilation of Gaja was exceptionally most exceedingly awful among the ranchers of this town and their
re-home work was all the while slacking. Watson [15], R.T., Zinyowera, M.C., Moss,R.H.(Eds) states
that The local effects of environmental change san appraisal of powerlessness in 1998. R.Arumugam et.,
al [16] examined about the statistical approach on applications of inventory management in the
Departmental store. M.Rajathi and R.Arumugam [17] concentrated on the Applications of Mobile
Learning in the Higher Educational Institutions through Statistical Approach.

2. STUDY AREA

The information was gathered through horticultural entry site, Agronomy books, magazines and it
was created by some accomplished individuals from the typhoon influenced zone in the year 2017-18 and
2018-19. This information will be considered as an auxiliary information, since its gathered through the
sites and other interpersonal organization. Basic insights and graphic methodology for the examination
has done. The accompanying territories are canvassed in this examination. Peraorani, Pattukottai, and
Orathanadu thaluk are shrouded in this examination zone. These thaluk are secured under Thanjavur
locale. Tamil Nadu, with a zone of 1,30,058 sq.km is arranged in the south east piece of the Indian
promontory between scopes 11.1271 and longitudes 78,6569. It is limited in the east by the Bay of
Bengal, in the south by Indian Ocean, in the west by the kerala state and Arabian ocean while in the north
by Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. The atmosphere of the state is tropical rainstorm type. We conveyed
and gathered specific information in Thanjavur locale.

Figure: 5 Damaged crops Figure: 6 Destruction of trees

Thanjavur region lies in the Kaveri delta, the most fruitful area in the state. The region is the primary rice
delivering locale in the state and henceforth known as the rice bowl of Tamil Nadu. Kaveri stream and
tributes inundate the region. Aside from paddy, ranchers here develop coconut and sugarcane and it is the
biggest system of coconut in Tamil Nadu. The examination region is encountering two rainstorm
atmospheres. These are southwest storm atmosphere - (June, July, August and September) and upper east
rainstorm atmosphere - (October, November, December). "Gaja" violent wind was framed by upper east
storm time of the November 11 in the time of 2018, Blanc [12], Elode and Eric Stobl states that
"Surveying the effect of Typhoons on rice generation in the Philippines, "Diary of applied metrology and
climatology in 2016.

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3. ANALYSIS
Table 1: Test Statistics for Average production and number of men’s covered in 2017-18

AVERAGE NO.OF MENS

PRODUCTION IN COVERED/ACRE
2017-18
Chi-Square .000a 6.000c
Df 23 10
Asymp. Sig. 1.000 .815
Monte Sig. 1.000b .889b
Carlo Sig.
99% Lower Bound 1.000 .881
Confidence Upper Bound 1.000 .897
Interval

Table 2: Test Statistics for Average production and number of men’s covered in 2018-19

NO.OF MENS GROSS AREA AVERAGE PRODUCTION IN

COVERED/ACRE IRRIGATED 2018-19

Chi-Square 6.267a .867b .000c

df 10 13 14
Asymp. Sig. .792 1.000 1.000

Table 3: Test Statistics for Gross area irrigated

GROSS AREA
IRRIGATED
Chi-Square .875d
Df 14
Asymp. Sig. 1.000
Monte Carlo Sig. Sig. 1.000b
99% Confidence Interval Lower Bound 1.000
Upper Bound 1.000

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Table 4: Average Production in 2017-18 (Autocorrelations)

Box-Ljung Statistic
Lag Autocorrelation Std. Errora Value Df Sig.b
1 -.242 .196 1.525 1 .217
2 .112 .191 1.866 2 .393
3 -.550 .187 10.555 3 .014
4 .070 .182 10.705 4 .030
5 -.094 .177 10.986 5 .052
6 .416 .172 16.836 6 .010
7 .068 .167 17.003 7 .017
8 -.046 .162 17.085 8 .029
9 -.150 .156 18.008 9 .035
10 -.105 .150 18.493 10 .047
11 .031 .144 18.539 11 .070
12 .076 .138 18.840 12 .092
13 .044 .132 18.953 13 .125
14 -.043 .125 19.070 14 .162
15 .032 .118 19.146 15 .207
16 -.108 .110 20.113 16 .215

Figure 7: Average Production in 2017-18

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Table 5: Partial Autocorrelations Figure 8: Average Production in 2018-19

Series: AVERAGE PRODUCTION (Partial ACF)
IN 2018-19
Partial Std.
Lag Autocorrelation Error
1 -.242 .209
2 .057 .209
3 -.544 .209
4 -.245 .209
5 -.177 .209
6 .085 .209
7 .201 .209
8 -.052 .209
9 .163 .209
10 .110 .209
11 .034 .209
12 .020 .209
13 -.154 .209
14 -.111 .209
15 .021 .209
16 -.174 .209

Table 6: Number of Women’s Covered/Acre (Autocorrelations)

Series: NO.OF WOMENS COVERED/ACRE

Box-Ljung Statistic
Lag Autocorrelation Std. Errora
Value Df Sig.b
1 .027 .252 .011 1 .915
2 -.117 .218 .299 2 .861
3 -.450 .218 4.559 3 .207
4 .041 .126 4.663 4 .324
5 .179 .126 6.683 5 .245

Figure 9: Number of Womens covered / Acre

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Table 7: Partial Autocorrelations Figure 10: Number of Women’s Covered/ Acre

Series: NO.OF WOMENS
COVERED/ACRE
Partial
Lag Autocorrelation Std. Error
1 .027 .378
2 -.118 .378
3 -.450 .378
4 .000 .378
5 .000 .378

Table 8: Number of Men’s Covered/Acre Figure 11: Number of Men’s covered

Autocorrelations
Series: NO.OF MENS COVERED/ACRE
Auto Std. Box-Ljung Statistic
Lag correlation Errora Value Df Sig.b
1 -.638 .252 6.418 1 .011
2 .393 .218 9.663 2 .008
3 -.065 .218 9.752 3 .021
4 .006 .126 9.754 4 .045
5 .043 .126 9.869 5 .079

Figure 12: Number of Men’s covered

Table 9: Partial Autocorrelations

Series: NO.OF MENS COVERED/ACRE

Std. Error
Partial
Lag Autocorrelation
1 -.638 .378

2 -.024 .378
3 .298 .378
4 .000 .378

5 .000 .378

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Table 10: Gross Areas Irrigated

Figure 13: Gross Area Irrigated
Autocorrelations
Series: GROSS AREA IRRIGATED
Lag Autocorre Std. Box-Ljung
lation Errora Statistic
Value Df Sig.
b

1 -.020 .252 .006 1 .938

2 -.011 .218 .009 2 .996
3 -.109 .218 .256 3 .968
4 -.023 .126 .290 4 .990
5 -.180 .126 2.32 5 .803

Table 11: Descriptive Statistics (Skewness)

Mean Std. Deviation Variance Skewness

Std. Error Statistic Statistic Statistic Std. Error
AVERAGE PRODUCTION IN
951.202 4659.918 21714834.145 1.879 .472
2017-18
NO.OF WOMENS
3.156 12.624 159.363 -.160 .564
COVERED/ACRE
NO.OF MENS
4.587 18.349 336.696 .641 .564
COVERED/ACRE
GROSS AREA IRRIGATED 32426094897
142359.788 569439.153 2.508 .564
2.362
Valid N (listwise)

Table 12: Descriptive Statistics (Kurtosis)

Kurtosis
Statistic Std. Error
AVERAGE PRODUCTION IN 2017-18 3.277 .918
NO.OF WOMENS COVERED/ACRE -.539 1.091
NO.OF MENS COVERED/ACRE -.999 1.091
GROSS AREA IRRIGATED 4.897 1.091
Valid N (listwise)

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4. CHI-SQUARE TEST

H0: There is no association between numbers of men’s worked and production of crops.
H1: There is association between numbers of men’s worked and production of crops.
Interpretation
The probability value is less than the significance level at 0.99%. Therefore the null hypothesis
(H0) is accepted. Hence we conclude that there is no association between numbers of men’s worked and
the production of crops.

5. DISCUSSION OF THE STUDY

Table1 gives that the average production in 2017-18 and number of men’s covered in acres and
its significant lower and upper bound is 1.0 and significant value of number of men’s covered in acres are
0.881 and 0.897. Second table represents the average production in 2018-19 and men’s covered in acres
and its significant at 5% level. Therefore the null hypothesis is not accepted. The third table expressed
that the level of Gross area irrigated using chi-square (0.875) at 5% level of significance. The fourth table
and figure 7 depicts that the average production in 2017-18 based on the auto correlation in some stage
we have positive as well as negative from -0.544 to 0.201. A negative value indicates a negative linear
relationship between variables. A positive correlation coefficient indicates that there is a positive linear
relationship between the variables: as one variable increases in value, so does the other. Fifth table and
figure 8 clearly says that the relationship between the lag and the partial auto correlation in 2017 - 2018
and 2018-2019. Table 6 and figure 9 expressed that the number of women covered/ acre in the auto
correlation with (min= -0.450, max= 0.179). This will help to compare the relationship between the
variables.
Tenth figure and seventh table represents the partial auto correlation for number of women
covered, similarly table 8 and figure 11 expressed the same kind of relationship from the partial auto
correlation of men’s covered with minimum range is -0.638 and the maximum range is 0.393. Variability
can be assessed by examining the values in the standard deviation column from the table 9 and figure 12.
The more that individual data points differ from the mean, the larger the standard deviation will be.
Conversely, if there is a great deal of similarity between data points, the standard deviation will be quite
small. Gross Areas Irrigates is tested from the table 10 and figure 13 and it is significant at 5% level.
Table 11 gives the exact result of mean, standard deviation, variance and skewness of average production
2017-18 i.e., the lack of symmetry in the production. Last table represents the kurtosis and error of the
average production.

6. CONCLUSION

The present study has been carried out in order to identify the effect of the “Gaja” cyclone
especially agriculture damages and production of crops before and after gaja cyclone in the area of
pattukottai thaluk, thanjavur district. After 2 months 55% of productions restored in the cyclone affected
area. But 85% of coconut productions were destroyed in the cyclone. Coconut was one the main source
from agricultural production in Pattukottai Thaluk, Thanjavur district. Among the losses 75% of coconuts
were affected by Gaja cyclone. The economic loses suffered by the farmers were pathetic and they were
not in a condition to payback the agricultural loans. Preventive measures will be properly explained by
government sectors. After the destruction of gaja, the groundnut crop productions were stopped for 1.5
month. The farmers of the village were well knowledge about the schemes, Government plans and funds
providing for their agriculture. But the people were not getting any proper compensation or money for
their losses. Many NGO’s and private organization were give hands to the most affected area people.

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