3/7/2018 Brexit and the Decline of British Foreign Policy - Carnegie Europe - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Judy Dempsey’s Strategic

Europe
Brexit and the Decline of British
Foreign Policy
Denis MacShane

When Britain leaves the European Union, the country will suffer its biggest loss of
foreign policy influence in centuries.

July 28, 2017 Print Page Comments (7)

One of the underdiscussed aspects of Brexit is the immense damage it will do to Britain’s standing as a
global foreign policy player. Many commentators concentrate on the UK’s future relationship with the EU
single market and customs union, the status of EU citizens in Britain or of Brits in Europe, or what role the
European Court of Justice will have in the UK. But the biggest change when Britain leaves the EU will be
London voluntarily giving up its seat in the forum that decides on the future of Europe.

For centuries, Britain expended blood and treasure to ensure that Europe was open for British commerce;
that no dominant continental power, ideology, or faith took over; and that the values of liberalism, democracy,
and the rule of law spread across the continent.

In recent decades, Britain has had a seat, a vote, and a voice in all the big-ticket decisions on Europe’s
direction of travel. British diplomats, officials, and stellar leaders like Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair
magnified their influence by cajoling, persuading, and nudging the rest of Europe in a desired direction for
Britain. This meant building alliances and accepting some pushback, but Britain has had more power and
influence in Europe in recent decades than at any previous time in history. In every world capital, at the WTO,
and in other international bodies, British diplomats would meet with fellow EU colleagues and try to push an
agenda close to desired British interests.

All this comes to a shuddering stop with Brexit—irrespective of whether Britain’s exit from the EU will be hard
or soft or follow the Norwegian or Swiss model. Overnight, Britain will become an international policy player
that has to cool its heels in the waiting rooms of EU deciders, from the European Council to the European
Commission to the European External Action Service. There will be no point in anyone in Washington,

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Beijing, New Delhi, Lagos, or Brasília asking the British ambassador what Europe is going to do or say on
key global issues, because the answer can only be “Search me!”

Yes, this enfeebled post-EU Britain will retain its seat as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
London can still join the line of visitors from Berlin, Paris, and Warsaw in seeking an audience with the U.S.
president. The Commonwealth will be always there. Britain will remain in NATO, the Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe, and the Council of Europe. These are all worthwhile organizations, but none has
anything like the importance of the nations of Europe that work in concert on a permanent institutionalized
basis as members of the European Union.

So the UK will revert to bilateral diplomacy. Fantasists hope this will mean a return to glory for the Foreign
and Commonwealth Office (FCO), but the money is not and will not be there. On the playing field on which
Britain has sought to be present, exercise influence, shape the rules, and defend its core interests, the UK
will henceforth be on the touchline. The FCO is proposing to hold a Western Balkans conference in 2018. It is
a good initiative, but who outside the EU will care what Britain thinks or proposes for this still troubled and
turbulent region?

From Islamist terrorism to environmental policies to the protection of Europe’s borders, Britain will be
disconnected from all the main EU players. Of course, there will be polite welcomes for the British prime
minister and foreign secretary, but the UK’s third-country status will mean London’s envoys have the same
rank as those from Mexico, Turkey, or South Korea.

London will cease to be the foreign policy discussion center of the world outside Washington. Established
London-based foreign policy think tanks like Chatham House, the International Institute for Security Studies,
and the Royal United Services Institute or newcomers like the Centre for European Reform and the European
Council on Foreign Relations have high reputations. They will become less relevant and attract less global
funding as the UK amputates itself from EU foreign policy decisions because its foreign ministers and officials
are no longer locked into core European policymaking.

As university departments that teach and research European foreign policy lose EU funding, and policy
NGOs that receive EU money and bring together European researchers also reduce their activities, the buzz
of London as Europe’s no. 1 international policy forum will dwindle.

As an FCO minister, I met regularly with EU opposite numbers and was able to report to Blair on the politics
of what was happening in the rest of Europe. Outside the EU, Britain will be looking in as EU member states
get on with deciding on everything from European policing and justice policies to deployments of EU armed
interventions to troubled regions of Africa or Arab countries.

Brexit is the biggest influence-reducing move ever seen in Britain’s history of international relations. It is
astonishing that the UK foreign policy establishment has not expressed concern. The overwhelming focus in
the Brexit debate on trade and immigration has sidelined the coming loss of British influence, which is without
precedent in British history.

Former UK foreign secretary William Hague and former NATO secretary general George Robertson have
called for the UK to have observer status at EU foreign policy meetings. But then why not Turkey or, indeed,
the United States? This is precisely the cherry-picking approach that the other 27 EU members reject. When
Britain leaves the EU, it will have no say and little influence over the future geopolitical direction of travel of its
region of the world.

Denis MacShane was a parliamentary private secretary and minister at the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office om 1997
to 2005 and UK delegate to the Council of Europe and NATO Parliamentary Assemblies om 2005 to 2010.

More on:
WESTERN EUROPE EU AND THE WORLD SECURITY

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