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Partea Întâi: - : Este Produse Au
Partea Întâi: - : Este Produse Au
- ù,'(352'8& ,($
62&,(7 ,,&20(5&,$/(352026,06$ù,'(&,=,$
úL%FXXUP WRDUHOHFDUDFWHULVWLFL
¡ 9ROXPXO YkQ] ULORU YDULD] vQWkPSO WRU GH OD R OXQ OD DOWD FX WRDWH F DF este produse au
FkúWLJDWSR]L LLLPSRUWDQWHSHSLD
¡ 3UHJ WLUHD SURGXF LHL SHQWUX FHOH GRX SURGXVH $ úL % vQ OXQLOH XUP WRDUH
RFWRPEULH QRLHPEULH GHFHPEULH QHFHVLW FXQRDúWHUHD vQ DYDQV GH F WUH 6& 352026,0
¡ 3URGXVXO $ HVWH vQ FRQFXUHQ FX DOWH WUHL SURGXVH VLPLODUH & & &
vQ IXQF LH GH FRQMXQFWXUD HFRQRPLF UDWD LQIOD LHL FUHúWHUHD SUH XULORU XQRU SURGXVH GH
consum curent, etc. Pentru acest produs, S.C. PROMOSIM.S.A. are contracte ferme numai în
OXQLOHQRLHPEULHFXIúLGHFHPEULHFXI
XQLWDUH GH SURGXF LH UDQGDPHQWXO XWLODMXOXL SURGXFWLYLWDWHD PXQFLL VXSUDID D GH GHSR]LWDUH
3).
¡ Costurile unitare de stocare a produselor realizate într-R OXQ SHQWUX D IL YkQGXWH vQ OXQLOH
XUP WRDUH GHSLQG GH GREkQGD FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH IRQGXOXL E QHVF LPRELOL]DW vQ SURGXVHOH
VWRFDWH ÌQ SHULRDGD FRQVLGHUDW FRVWXULOH XQLWDUH GH VWRFDUH UHSUH]LQW GLQ FRVWX l unitar
GHSURGXF LH
(YROX LDSHSLD DXQRUSURGXVHFRQFXUHQ iale. M1
MANAGER1/ Cotemark, Cotedim; 'HWHUPLQDUHDSURJUDPXOXLGHIDEULFD LHFDUHSHUPLWH
PLQLPL]DUHDFKHOWXLHOLORUGHSURGXFWLHúLVWRFDUH
QM/Markov Analysis; WINQSB/ Mkp
TEHNOLOG DetermiQDUHDSHUIRUPDQ HLXQXLQRXXWLODM0 QM/Linear Programming; Goal Programming; WINQSB/ Lp-ilp, Gp-ilp
3URJUDPDUHDDFWLYLW LORUXQXLSURLHFWSHQWUXLQWURGXFHUHD
vQIDEULFD LHDSURGXVXOXL'
HFRQRPLFHúLGH
• Cazul duratelor probabiliste M7
SURGXF LH
QM/CPM/PERT/ CPM with Crashing;
• Norme '(&,=,$0$1$*(5,$/
• Costuri
WINQSB/PERT-CPM/ Probabilistic PERT;
• Categorii WINQSB/PERT-CPM/ Deterministic CPM
de
încadrare Calculul profitului maxim probabil în cazul în care se M8
• &DSDFLW L
YDODQVDSHSLD SURGXVXO D2004
de
SURGXF LH
QM/ DECISION THEORY/ Decision tree;
• &DSDFLW L WINQSB/Da/ Decision tree
de stocare
• Produse
Figura 1
Tabelul 1
Tabelul 2
Tabelul 3
FRQFXUHQ LDOH
¡(VWLPDUHDYkQ] ULLSURGXVHORU
¡ $QDOL]D SRVLELOLW LL FUHúWHULL YkQ] ULORU SULQ LQWHQVLILFDUHD FDPSDQLHL GH SXEOLFLWDWH úL OXDUHD vQ
FRQVLGHUDUHDXUP WRDUHORURELHFWLYH
- UHDOL]DUHDXQXLDQXPLWSURILWOLPLWDLQIHULRDU
- minimizarea timpuluLVXSOLPHQWDUGHPXQF
¡ 3URJUDPDUHD DFWLYLW LORU XQXL SURLHFW SHQWUX LQWURGXFHUHD vQ IDEULFD LH D SURGXVXOXL ' DWkW vQ
FD]XOGXUDWHORUSUREDELOLVWHFkWúLvQFD]XOGXUDWHORUGHWHUPLQLVWHúLDQDOL]DFRVWGXUDW
SLD SURGXVXO'
¡ $OHJHUHDYDULDQWHLGHFL]LRQDOHvQFRQGL LLGHULVFúLLQFHUWLWXGLQH
¡&DOFXOXOQHFHVDUXOXLGHUHVXUVHPDWHULDOHúLXPDQHSHED]DQRUPHORUGLQILúHOHWHKQRORJLFH
defecte;
¡ ([DPLQDUHD FDSDFLW LORU GH GHSR]LWDUH DOH ILUPHL SHQWUX PDWHULLOH SULPH úL PDWHULDOHOH QHFHVDUH
SURFHVXOXLGHIDEULFD LH
3. 'HFL]LDPDQDJHULDO DVLVWDW GHFDOFXODWRU
La începutul lunii septembrie a.c., S.C. PROMOSIM S.$ D RUJDQL]DW R DQFKHW DVXSUD XQXL
HúDQWLRQ UHSUH]HQWDWLY GH F FRQVXPDWRUL FX VFRSXO GH D GHWHUPLQD QXP UXO XWLOL]DWRULORU
5% s-DXRULHQWDWF WUHSURGXVXO&
5% s-DXRULHQWDWF WUHSURGXVXO&
QXPDLGHDOHJHUHDGLQOXQDFXUHQW
luni;
¡ )LHFDUH FRQVXPDWRU FXPS U XQ VLQJXU WLS GH SURGXV LDU FDQWLW LOH FXPS UDWH U PkQ
neVFKLPEDWHvQXUP WRDUHOHOXQL
Modelul economico-matematic
4
∑αit = 100, pentru ∀ t;
i =1
P= PDWULFHD UHRULHQW ULORU PDWULFHD SUREDELOLW LORU GH WUDQ]L LH FX HO ementele pij, i=1,...,4,
j=1,...,4.
pij = probabilitatea de reorientare a unui consumator de la produsul i = A2001, C2031, C2032 sau
C2033 în luna t ∈ {septembrie, octombrie sau noiembrie} a.c., la produsul j = A2001, C2031,
C2032 sau C2033 în luna t+1 ∈ {octombrie, noiembrie sau decembrie} a.c., 0 ≤ pij ≤ 1,
4
i=1,...,4, j=1,...,4, ∑ pij =1
i =1
3HED]DGDWHORUIXUQL]DWHGHDQFKHWHOHHIHFWXDWHUH]XOW
Rezolvare
(YROX LD SH SLD D FHORU SURGXVH FRQFXUHQ LDOH VH SRDW e determina cu ajutorul produselor
informatice:
WINQSB/Mkp,[23], pag 23 – 24;
QM/ Markov Analysis, [23], pag 29 – 30;
MANAGER1/ Cotemark, [18], pag. 72 – 74, [23], pag 22 –23.
$QDOL]DHFRQRPLF DUH]XOWDWHORU
5DSRUWXO PDQDJHULDO vQ FDUH DQDOL]D L UH]XOWDWHOH RE LQXWH SHQWUX GDWHOH LQGLYLGXDOL]DWH FX
1. 5HSUH]HQWDUHD JUDILF úL DQDOL]D HYROX LHL SRQGHULORU SH SLD D FHORU SURGXVH
FRQFXUHQ LDOH 3UHFL]DUHD úL FRPHQWDUHD VWDGLXOXL SH FXUED YLH LL vQ FDUH VH DIO ILHFDUH
SURGXVODPRPHQWXOLQL LDO
3. 3RQGHUHD OLPLW SH SLD OD FDUH SRDWH DMXQJH SURGXVXO $ GDF PDWULFHD GH WUDQ]L LH
5. 9ROXPXO YkQ] ULORU SURGXVXOXL $ vQ OXQLOH RFWRPEULH QRLHPEULH GHFHPEULH SHQWUX
OXQ
6. (YROX LDSURILWXOXLDVRFLDWSURGXVXOXL$
7. 3ROLWLFDPDQDJHULDO SULYLQGSURGXVXO$
reprezHQWDUHJUDILF VXQWUHGDWHvQ)LJXUD
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
oct nov dec ian feb mar apr mai iun iul aug sep
Figura 2
PHGLHúLDQXPHPRGHOXO%URZQGHQLYHODUHH[SRQHQ LDO
Modelul economico-matematic
= constanta de nivelare, 0 ≤ ≤ 1.
3HQWUX HVWLPDUHD LQL LDO 50 D YkQ] ULORU FRQGXFHUHD 6& 352026,0 6$ SURSXQH
YROXPXO YkQ] ULORU GLQ OXQD RFWRPEULH DQXO SUHFHGHQW LDU SHQWUX FRQVWDQWD GH QLYHODUH SURSXQH
valorile:
I. = 0.2
II. = 0.9
III. RSWLPvQUDSRUWFXHURDUHDPHGLHS WUDWLF
Rezolvare
(VWLPDUHDYROXPXOXLYkQ] ULORUSURGXVXOXL%SHQWUXOXQDRFWRPEULHDQXOFXUHQWVHRE LQH
cu produsele informatice:
WINQSB/Fc / SES, [18], pag. 87 – 91, [23], pag. 37–39;
MSS/ Forecasting Models/ Exponential Smoothing, [23], pag. 36–37.
$QDOL]DHFRQRPLF DUH]XOWDWHORU
1. ReprezeQWDUHD JUDILF D GDWHORU UHDOH D PHGLHL YkQ] ULORU úL D HVWLPD LLORU YkQ] ULORU
pentru constantele de nivelare: = 0,2, úL UHVSHFWLY optim în raport cu eroarea
PHGLHS WUDWLF
RFWRPEULHDQXOFXUHQW-XVWLILFDUHDUHFRPDQG ULL
4. 5HFRPDQG ULJHQHUDOHSHQWUXDOHJHUHDFRQVWDQWHLGHQLYHODUH .
S.C. PROMOSIM S.A. a înlocuit utilajul pentru realizarea produsului A2001 cu un utilaj nou.
Din punct de vedere tehnic, noul utilaj are caracteristici similare cu utilajul vechi, dar managerul de
SURGXF LH GRUHúWH V XWLOL]H]H VLPXODUHD SHQWUX RE LQHUHD XQRU GDWH LPSRUWDQWH UHIHULWRDUH OD
8QD GLQWUH FDUDFWHULVWLFLOH GH SHUIRUPDQ DOH XWLODMXOXL VH UHIHU OD FDQWLWDWHD GH SURGXVH
$ UHDOL]DWH SH RU 5H]XOWDWHOH vQUHJLVWUDWH vQ RUH GH IXQF LRQDUH D XWLODMXOXL DX IRVW
SUHOXFUDWHVWDWLVWLFúLJUXSDWHDVWIHO
____________________________________________________
Cantitatea de produse A2001 )UHFYHQ D
(xiXIRU (ni)
____________________________________________________
6 15
8 25
10 30
12 15
14 10
16 5
____________________________________________________
Total: 100
produs A2001.
'HWHUPLQDUHDGXUDWHLPHGLLFXREXQ SUHFL]LHQHFHVLW XQQXP UPDUH de experimente
FDUHVXQWFRQVXPDWRDUHGHWLPSPDWHULDOHHQHUJLHUHVXUVHXPDQHúLEDQL'HDFHHDVH
YD XWLOL]D PHWRGD 0RQWH &DUOR FDUH SRDWH JHQHUD REVHUYD LL VLPXODWH FX DMXWRUXO
Modelul de simulare
6HFDOFXOHD]
k
SUREDELOLWDWHDFXPXODW 3k = ∑ pi , k=1,...,6.
i =0
FRQVWUXLHúWH FkWH R EDU YHUWLFDO FDUH DUH vQ O LPHD HJDO FX SUREDELOLWDWHD FXPXODW
6H JHQHUHD] XQ úLU GH 1 QXPHUH DOHDWRDUH XQLIRUP UHSDUWL]DWH vQ LQWHUYDOXO >@ XWLOL]kQG XQ
generator de numere aleatoare (de exemplu, unul din programele GENER1, GENER2,
GENER3, GENER4, GE1(5FDUHSRWILDSHODWHSULQ0$1$*(5úLVHvQUHJLVWUHD] vQWU-
un tabel.
6H UHSUH]LQW SULQWU XQ SXQFW SH D[D YHUWLFDO ILHFDUH QXP U JHQHUDW VH GXFH GLQ DFHO SXQFW R
-
SDUDOHO ODD[DRUL]RQWDO SkQ FkQGvQWkOQHúWHSULPDEDU YHUWLFDO úLVHFLWHúWH cantitatea de la
ED]D DFHOHL EDUH 6H VFULH FDQWLWDWHD RE LQXW vQ WDEHO vQ GUHSWXO QXP UXOXL DOHDWRU XWLOL]DW
5H]XOW DVWIHOXQúLUGH1GXUDWHVLPXODWH
6H FDOFXOHD] PHGLD RUDU D FDQWLW LL GH SURGXVH $ P Σixi1 SURGXVH RU DEDWHUHD
N
∑ ( x i − m) 2
standard s = i =1 úL LQWHUYDOXO GH vQFUHGHUH P ± tα/2,glib s/ N ), unde statistica
N −1
tα/2,glib VHRE LQHGLQWU-un tabel2DOGLVWULEX LHLWSHQWUXQLYHOXOGHVHPQLILFD LHα úLJOLE
Rezolvare
5H]ROYDUHDVHYDIDFHvQGRX PRGXUL
2
Vezi ANEXA 2
,&XDMXWRUXOSURFHGXULLGHVFULVHSULQSDúLL – 6, [18], pag 190 –193, [23], pag. 14 – 17;
II. Cu ajutorul produsului informatic QM/Simulation/Monte Carlo Simulation
$QDOL]DHFRQRPLF DUH]XOWDWHORU
DGHH[SHULPHQWHGHVLPXODUHUHDOL]DWHFXDMXWRUXOUHSUH]HQW ULLJUDILFH
3. Intervalul de încredere pentru media mediilor duratei de realizare a unei XQLW L IL]LFH GH
$ FDOFXODW SH ED]D UHSHW ULL GH RUL D XQXL VHW GH H[SHULPHQWH GH VLPXODUH
de produs A2001.
3.4. 'HWHUPLQDUHD SURJUDPXOXL GH IDEULFD LH FDUH SHUPLWH PLQLPL]DUHD FKHOWXLHOLORU GH
SURGXF LHúLVWRFDUH
3H ED]D GDWHORU RE LQXWH SULYLQG HVWLPDUHD FHUHULL SURGXVXOXL $ D HVWLP ULL YkQ] ULL
OXQLOHRFWRPEULHQRLHPEULHúLGHFHPEULHDFHVWHXUP WRDUHD
Tabelul 4
Produsul Cererea în luna Cererea în luna Cererea în luna
octombrie (u.f.) noiembrie (u.f.) decembrie (u.f.)
A2001 Cota de participare pe Cota de participare pe Cota de participare pe
SLD
SLD
SLD
Tabelul 5
Produsul Cererea în luna Cererea în luna Cererea în luna
octombrie (u.f.) noiembrie (u.f.) decembrie (u.f.)
A2001 2799 3013 3127
B2002 1246,03 1000 3200
6HREVHUY F FHUHUHDSHQWUXSURGXVXO%HVWHIOXFWXDQW LDUGLQGDWHOH7DEHOXOXLUH]XOW
F úLWLPSXOGHOXFUXGLVSRQLELO DO XWLODMXOXL YDULD] GHODR OXQ OD DOWDvQDFHDVW SHULRDG GLQ FDX]D
PROMOSIM va lucra cu stocuri. ConduFHUHD VRFLHW LL GRUHúWH V GHWHUPLQH SURJUDPXO OXQDU GH
SURGXF LH FDUH PLQLPL]HD] FKHOWXLHOLOH WRWDOH GH SURGXF LH úL VWRFDUH FRQVLGHUkQG F FKHOWXLHOLOH
XQLWDUHVXQWLQGHSHQGHQWHGHFDQWLW LOHUHDOL]DWHúLVWRFDWHGLQILHFDUHSURGXV
GHWHUPLQDFXXQPRGHOGHSURJUDPDUHOLQLDU
Variabilele modelului
x1 = FDQWLWDWHDGLQSURGXVXO$UHDOL]DW vQOXQDRFWR mbrie a.c.;
x2 = FDQWLWDWHDGLQSURGXVXO$VWRFDW vQOXQDRFWRPEULHDF
x3 = FDQWLWDWHDGLQSURGXVXO$UHDOL]DW vQOXQDQRLHPEULHDF
x4 = FDQWLWDWHDGLQSURGXVXO$VWRFDW vQOXQDQRLHPEULHDF
x6 = FDQWLWDWHDGLQSURGXVXO%UHDOL]DW vQOXQDRFWRPEULHDF
x7 = FDQWLWDWHDGLQSURGXVXO%VWRFDW vQOXQDRFWRPEULHDF
x8 = FDQWLWDWHDGLQSURGXVXO%UHDOL]DW vQOXQDQRLHPEULHDF
(min) f(x) = (20 + c)x1 + 0,015(20 + c)x2 + (20 + c)x3 + 0,015(20 + c)x4 + (20 + c)x5 + (10 +
c)x6 + 0,015(10 + c)x7 + (10 + c)x8 + 0,015(10 + c)x9 + (10 + c)x10
5HVWULF LLOHSUREOHPHL
RHVWULF LLOHGHQHQHJDWLYLWDWH
xi ≥ 0, i=1,...,10.
Rezolvare
3UREOHPDSRDWHILUH]ROYDW FXSURGXVHOHLQIRUPDWLFH
$QDOL]DHFRQRPLF DUH]XOWDWHORU
2. 3UREOHPDGXDO úLLQWHUSUHWDUHDYDORULORUYDULDELOHORUGXDOH
GRPHQLXOXLGHDGPLVLELOLWDWHSHQWUXYDULD LDGLVSRQLELOXOXLGHUHVXUVH
vQ FHOH OXQL" ,Q FD] QHJDWLY FRQVWUXL L XQ PRGHO SHQWUX GHWHUPLQDUHD SURJUDPXOXL GH
SURGXF LH FDUH V SHUPLW PLQLPL]DUHD FKHOWXLHOLORU GH SURGXF LH VWRFDUH úL vQF UFDUHD
-
XQLIRUP DXWLODMXOXLúLUHVXUVHLXPDQH
3URJUDPXO GH SURGXF LH VWRFDUH RIHULW GH PRGHOXO OLQLDU GLQ SDUDJUDIXO QX DVLJXU R
-
vQF UFDUH FRPSOHW úL XQLIRUP D FDSDFLW LL GH SURGXF LH vQ FHOH OXQL ÌQ DFHVW VFRS FRQGXF erea
6&352026,0 6$ GRUHúWHV DQDOL]H]H SRVLELOLWDWHDFUHúWHULLYkQ] ULORUODFHOH GRX SURGXVHDOH
YkQ] ULORU SURGXVXOXL $ úL F XP SHQWUX SURGXVXO % 6RFLHWDWHD vúL IL[HD]
XUP WRDUHOHRELHFWLYH
• 8WLOL]DUHD LQWHJUDO D FDSDFLW LL XWLODMXOXL LQkQG FRQW GH FRVWXULOH HVWLPDWH SHQWUX R RU GH
IXQF LRQDUH VXSOLPHQWDU D XWLODMXOXL XPRU úL SLHUGHUHD FDX]DW GH QHIRORVLUHD X tilajului (7
XPRU Prioritate 1);
• 3URILWXO QHW RE LQXW GXS DFRSHULUHD FRVWXULORU GH VWRFDUH úL D FRVWXULORU GH SXEOLFLWDWH V ILH PDL
PLQLPL]DUHD FRVWXULORU WRWDOH DVRFLDWH DEDWHULORU ID GH QLYHOXULOH GH DVSLUD LH SURSXVH vQ RUGLQHD
SULRULW LO or specificate.
3HQWUXUH]ROYDUHDSUREOHPHLVHSRDWHXWLOL]D0RGHOXO3URJUDP ULL6FRSVDX*RDO
Programming".
Modelul economico-matematic
RELHFWLY vQ ÄUHVWULF LL VFRS´ úL DG XJDUHD ORU OD FHOH UHVWULF LL UHIHULWRDUH OD VDWLVIDFHUHD FHUHULL
FRQWUDFWDWH úL FHOH UHVWULF LL SULYLQG VXSUDID D GH VWRFDUH DOH PRGHOXOXL OLQLDU SHQWUX SUREOHPD GH
SURGXF LHúLVWRFDUH
¡ 7HUPHQXO OLEHU DO ILHF UHL UHVWULF LL VFRS UHSUH]LQW QLYHOXO GH DVSLUD LH VSHFLILFDW GH
GHFLGHQWSHQWUXILHFDUHIXQF LHRELHFWLY
¡ Noul model va minimiza costurile totale ale abaterilor ID GH QLYHOXULOH GH DVSLUD LH
Variabilele modelului
x1 = FDQWLWDWHDGLQSURGXVXO$UHDOL]DW vQOXQDRFWRPEULHDF
x2 = FDQWLWDWHDGLQSURGXVXO$VWRFDW vQOXQDRFWRPEULHDF
x3 = FDQWLWDWHDGLQSURGXVXO$UHDOL]DW vQOXQDQRLHPEULHDF
x5 = FDQWLWDWHDGLQSURGXVXO$UHDOL]DW vQOXQDGHFHPEULHDF
x6 = FDQWLWDWHDGLQSURGXVXO%UHDOL]DW vQOXQDRFWRPEULHDF
x7 = FDQWLWDWHDGLQSURGXVXO%VWRFDW vQOXQDRFWRPEULHDF
x8 = caQWLWDWHDGLQSURGXVXO%UHDOL]DW vQOXQDQRLHPEULHDF
x9 = FDQWLWDWHDGLQSURGXVXO%VWRFDW vQOXQDQRLHPEULHDF
x11= FDQWLWDWHD GLQ SURGXVXO $ UHDOL]DW vQ OXQD RFWR mbrie a.c. pentru acoperirea cererii
suplimentare;
x12= FDQWLWDWHD GLQ SURGXVXO $ UHDOL]DW vQ OXQD QRLHPEULH DF SHQWUX DFRSHULUHD FHUHULL
suplimentare;
x13= FDQWLWDWHD GLQ SURGXVXO $ UHDOL]DW vQ OXQD GHFHPEULH DF SHQWUX DFRSHULUHD FHUHULL
suplimentare;
x14= FDQWLWDWHD GLQ SURGXVXO % UHDOL]DW vQ OXQD RFWRPEULH DF SHQWUX DFRSHULUHD FHUHULL
suplimentare;
x15= FDQWLWDWHD GLQ SURGXVXO % UHDOL]DW vQ OXQD QRLHPEULH DF SHQWUX DFRSHULUHD FHUHULL
suplimentare;
x16= cantitatea din produsul % UHDOL]DW vQ OXQD GHFHPEULH DF SHQWUX DFRSHULUHD FHUHULL
suplimentare;
◊0LQLPL]DUHDDEDWHULLvQPLQXVID GHQLYHOXOVSHFLILFDWDOSURILWXOXL
5HVWULF LLOHSUREOHPHL
¡ pentru satisfacerea cererii produsului A2001 în luna octombrie a.c.:
C1: x1 - x2 -[ FRWDGHSDUWLFLSDUHSHSLD
5HVWULF LLOHVFRS
modelului 3.4.1.)
5HVWULF LLOHGHQHQHJDWLYLWDWH
xi ≥ 0, i=1,...,16, supuoct ≥ 0, nefuoct≥ 0, supunov ≥0, nefunov ≥0, supudec ≥0, nefudec ≥0,
supmoct ≥0, nefmoct ≥0, supmnov ≥0, nefmnov ≥0, supmdec ≥0, nefmdec ≥0, suprofit ≥0, neprofit
≥0.
Rezolvare:
Modelul prezentat poate fi rezolvat cu produsele informatice:
WINQSB/ Gp – igp, [23], pag. 98 – 101; QM/ Goal Programming, [23], pag. 61 – 98.
2EVHUYD LH 1XPDL VLVWHPXO WINQSB peUPLWH XWLOL]DWRUXOXL V PRGLILFH GHQXPLUHD
$QDOL]DHFRQRPLF DUH]XOWDWHORU
valoarea c ≠ 0 va include:
1. 3URJUDPXO OXQDU GH SURGXF LH - stocare, modul de utilizare a resurselor disponibile (utilaj,
UHVXUV XPDQ FRVWXO GH SURGXF LH FRVWXO GH VWRFDUH FRVWXO WRWDO SURILWXO WRWDO úL FKHOWXLHOLOH GH
publicitate ;
$QDOL]DDEDWHULORUID GHQLYHOXULOHGHDVSLUD LHVSHFLILFDWH
XWLOL]DUH D XWLODMXOXL úL D UHVXUVHL XPDQH FRPHQWDUHD IDSWXOXL GDF VXUSOXVXO GH SURILW MXVWLILF
cheltuielile de publicitate).
D2004.
&D]XOGXUDWHORUGHWHUPLQLVWHúLDQDOL]DFRVW GXUDW -
Realizarea studiului de fezabilitate pentru introducerea vQ IDEULFD LH D XQXL QRX SURGXV
s-DX HVWLPDW DWkW GXUDWHOH QRUPDOH úL FRVWXULOH FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH FkW úL GXUDWHOH úL FRVWXULOH
DFWLYLW LORU vQ FD]XO VXSOLPHQW ULL UHVXUVHORU XPDQH úL ILQDQFLDUH QHFHVDUH XUJHQW ULL DFHVWRU
DFWLYLW L
Tabelul 6
Costul Costul
$FWLYLW L Durata Durata
Sim Denumire normal duratei
precedente QRUPDO XUJHQWDW
bol activitate (u.m.) urgentate
VDSW PkQL V SW PkQL
(u.m)
A Proiectare produs - 12 7 90+c 135+c
Elaborare
B program - 5 2 16+c 30+c
marketing
3UHJ WLUH
Construire
D A 11 6 100+c 120+c
prototip
Elaborare
E prospect de A 4 3 6+c 7+c
marketing
Estimare cost de
F C 3 2 2+c 3+c
SURGXF LH
7HVWDUHWHKQLF D
G D 6 4 60+c 70+c
SURGXF LHL
Redactare studiu
J F,G,I 3 2 2+c 3+c
final
Conducerea S.C.PROMOSIM S.A. GRUHúWH V úWLH FDUH HVWH GXUDWD QRUPDO úL GXUDWD FHD PDL
PLF GH UHDOL]DUH D VWXGLXOXL GH IH]DELOLWDWH FkW úL FRVWXULOH WRWDOH FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH 'H DVHPHQHD
FRQGXFHUHD HVWH LQWHUHVDW vQ GHWHUPLQDUHD GXUDWHL PHGLL GH UHDOL]DUH D VWXGLXOXL D FRVWXOXL RSWL m
DVRFLDWDFHVWHLGXUDWHúLHúDORQDUHDvQWLPSDDFWLYLW LORUSHQWUXRE LQHUHDGXUDWHLPHGLLGXUDWDRSWLP
Modelul economico-matematic
3URJUDPDUHD vQ WLPS D DFWLYLW LORU SHQWUX ODQVDUHD XQXL SURGXV QRX FX X n cost
RSWLP FRUHVSXQ] WRU XQHL GXUDWH WRWDOH VSHFLILFDWH SHQWUX ILQDOL]DUHD SURLHFWXOXL VH
SRDWHRE LQHFXDMXWRUXOXQXLPRGHO$'&&RVWXUL
Rezolvare
2. Reprezentarea grDILF D FRVWXOXL SURLHFWXOXL vQ IXQF LH GH GXUDWD WRWDO GH UHDOL]DUH FX
(DuratDWRWDO PHGLH&RVWXOWRWDORSWLPDVRFLDW
'UXPXOFULWLFSHQWUXSURLHFWXOFXGXUDW PHGLH
7HUPHQHOHPLQLPHúLPD[LPHGHvQFHSHUHúLGHWHUPLQDUHSHQWUXILHFDUHDFWLYLWDWH
6. ReprH]HQWDUHD JUDILF D FXUEHL FRVWXOXL SURLHFWXOXL SHQWUX SODQLILFDUHD DFWLYLW LORU OD
$FWLYLW LOH GLQ FDGUXO SURLHFWXOXL GH LQWURGXFHUH vQ IDEULFD LH D S rodusului nou D2004 la
6& 352026,0 6$ SUH]LQW XQ JUDG PDUH GH LPSUHFL]LH vQ FHHD FH SULYHúWH GXUDWD DFHVWRUD
Tabelul 7
Sim Denumire activitate $FWLYLW L Durata Durata cea mai Durata
bol precedente RSWLPLVW SUREDELO SHVLPLVW
$QDOL]DHFRQRPLF D rezultatelor
1. 7HUPHQHOH PLQLPH úL PD[LPH GH vQFHSHUH UHVSHFWLY GH WHUPLQDUH D ILHF UHL DFWLYLW L
SUHFXPúLUH]HUYDWRWDO GHWLPS
2. 'XUDWDPHGLHWRWDO GHUHDOL]DUHDSURLHFWXOX i;
3. 3UREDELOLWDWHD GH UHDOL]DUH D SURLHFWXOXL vQ F úL F V SW PkQL úL
4. 'HWHUPLQDUHDSULQVLPXODUHD0RQWH&DUORDGLVWULEX LHLGHSUREDELOLWDWHDGXUDWHLWRWDOHGH
realizare a proiectului.
YDODQVDSHSLD SURGXVXO'
'HSDUWDPHQWXO GH FHUFHWDUH SURGXF LH DO 6& 352026,0 6$ D FUHDW XQ QRX SURGXV
' FDUH D IRVW WHVWDW SH SLD úL FDUH HVWH DFFHSWDW GH F WUH XWLOL]DWRUL 3HQWUX UHDOL]DUHD
produsului conducerea S.C. PROMOSIM S.A. are în vedere mai multe variante. Alegerea variantei
FRQYHQDELOH GHSLQGH vQ SULQFLSDO GH HYROX LD YkQ] ULORU SURGXVXOXL SHVWH DQL DFHVWD ILLQG WLPSXO
de DPRUWL]DUH D XWLODMHORU 'XS SULPXO DQ VH YRU OXD QRL GHFL]LL vQ IXQF LH GH VLWXD LD YkQ] ULORU
'DWHOH SULYLQG YDULDQWHOH úL VW ULOH QDWXULL SHQWUX FHOH PRPHQWH GH GHFL]LH VXQW SUH]HQWDWH vQ
Tabelul 8.
Tabelul 8
Anul t Anul t+1
Instalarea unui &RQMXFWXU Instalarea unui nou Cerere mare (prob=0.3) 800+c
utilaj nou IDYRUDELO utilaj Cerere medie (prob=0.6) 600+c
(cost (20+c)u.m) (probabilitatea=0.7) (cost (20+c) u.m.) &HUHUHPLF SURE 500+c
Ore suplimentare de Cerere mare (prob=0.3) 600+c
lucru Cerere medie (prob=0.6) 500+c
(cost (2+c) u.m.) Cerere mica (prob=0.1) 400+c
&RQMXFWXU Utilizarea Cerere mare (prob=0.3) 500+c
QHIDYRUDELO FDSDFLW LLH[LVW
ente Cerere medie (prob=0.6) 400+c
(probabilitatea=0.3) &HUHUHPLF SURE 200+c
Ore &RQMXFWXU Instalarea unui utilaj Cerere mare (prob=0.3) 600+c
suplimentare de IDYRUDELO nou
Cerere medie (prob=0.6) 500+c
lucru (probabilitatea=0.7) (cost (20+c) u.m.)
&HUHUHPLF SURE 200+c
(cost (2+c) u.m.)
Instalarea unui utilaj Cerere mare (prob=0.3) 500+c
QRXúL
lucru
&HUHUHPLF SURE 200+c
(cost (22+2c) u.m.)
3URFHVXOGHFL]LRQDOvQGRX HWDSHSRDWHILPRGHODWFXDMXWRUXODUERUHOXLGHFL]LRQDO .
Rezolvare
doilea an.
3. $QDOL]DVHQ]LWLYLW LLVROX LHLODYDULD LDSUREDELOLW LORUGHUHDOL]DUHDVW ULORUQDWXULL
6(& ,81($683/,0(17$5
(min) f(x) = (20 + c)x1 + 0,015(20 + c)x2 + (20 + c)x3 + 0,015(20 + c)x4 + (20 + c)x5 + (10 +
c)x6 + 0,015(10 + c)x7 + (10 + c)x8 + 0,015(10 + c)x9 + (10 + c)x10
În coQWLQXDUHVHYDQRWDFXSDUDQWH]HGUHSWH>@SDUWHDvQWUHDJ DQXP UXOXLGLQWUHSDUDQWH]H
5HVWULF LLOHSUREOHPHL
Rezolvare
Modelul prezentat poate fi rezolvat cu produsele informatice:
WINQSB/ Lp – ilp, [23], pag. 76–81,
QM/ All Integer Programming, [23], pag. 76-78, 82–84.
$QDOL]DHFRQRPLF DUH]XOWDWHORU
2. CRPSDUDUHD DFHVWRU UH]XOWDWH FX FHOH RE LQXWH vQ FD]XO PRGHOXOXL OLQLDU PRGXO GH
XWLOL]DUHDXWLODMXOXLúLDUHVXUVHLXPDQH
5HSUH]HQWDUHD JUDILF D DUERUHOXL ELQDU DVRFLDW PHWRGHL %UDQFK DQG ERXQG SHQWUX
&RQGXFHUHD 6& 352026,0 UHDOL]HD] vQ SULQFLSDO GRX SURGXVH $ úL %
3HQWUX DPEHOH SURGXVH YROXPXO YkQ] ULORU YDULD] vQWkPSO WRU GH OD R OXQ OD DOWD LDU FRQGXFHUHD
VRFLHW LL HVWH LQWHUHVDW vQ SODQLILFDUHD SURJUDPXOXL GH SURGXF LH SH XOWLPXO WULPHVWUX DF DVWIHO FD
RIHUWD GHVFULV SULQ SURJUDPXO GH SURGXF LH V VH DSURSLH FkW PDL PXOW GH FHUHUHD PDQLIHVWDW SH
SLD
trei luni:
V1 - V VH PHQ LQ SURGXF LD FHORU GRX SURGXVH OD QLYHOXO LQGLFDW GH SURJUDPXO OLQLDU
(modulul 3.4.1.)
V2 - V FUHDVF FX SH OXQ SURGXF LD SHQWUX $ úL FX SH OXQ SURGXF LD SHQWUX
B2002
V3 - V FUHDVF FX SH OXQ SURGXF LD SHQWUX $ úL FX SH OXQ SURGXF LD SHQWUX
B2002.
$MXVWDUHDQLYHOXOXLSURGXF LLORUSHQWUXSURGXVHOH$úL%HVWHHVWLPDW vQIXQF LHGH
YROXPXO SUHYL]LRQDW DO YkQ] ULORU FRUHODW FX YkQ] ULOH UHDOH GLQ SURGXVHOH FRQFXUHQWH H[LVWHQWH SH
SLD SURGXVHOH & & úL & SHQWUX SURGXVXO $ úL SURGXVHOH VXEVWLWXW SHQWUX
SURGXVXO % D F UXL FHUHUH IOXFWXHD] vQ IXQF LH GH FRQMXQFWXUD HFRQRPLF 6XQW HYLGHQ LDWH
-FHUHUHDGLQSURGXVXO$VHVLWXHD] ODQLYHOXO
• FRWD GH SDUWLFLSDUH SH SLD FDOFXODW SULQ PRGHOXO Markov)* 6000 buc. în luna
octombrie;
•
FRWDGHSLD GLQPRGHOXO0DUNRY
EXFvQOXQDQRLHPEULH
- FHUHUHD SHQWUX SURGXVXO % V ILH vQ OXQD RFWRPEULH OD QLYHOXO SURJQR zat prin metoda
%URZQSHQWUX DSRLvQOXQDQRLHPEULHODQLYHOXOFúLvQGHFHPEULHOD
+ c)
- Starea naturii SN2FRQGL LLPHGLLGHFRQFXUHQ SHSLD DSURGXVHORU$úL%
-FHUHUHDGLQSURGXVXO$VHVLWXHD] ODQLYHOXO
- FHUHUHD SHQWUX SURGXVXO % V ILH în luna octombrie la nivelul prognozat prin metoda
%URZQSHQWUX DSRLvQOXQDQRLHPEULHODQLYHOXOFúLvQGHFHPEULHOD
+ c)
- Starea naturii SN3 VLWXD LH QHIDYRUDELO SHQWUX 6& 352026,0 FRQFXUHQ DJUHVLY D
celolalte produse)
- cerHUHDGLQSURGXVXO$VHVLWXHD] ODQLYHOXO
• FRWD GH SDUWLFLSDUH SH SLD FDOFXODW SULQ PRGHOXO 0DUNRY EXF vQ OXQD
octombrie
•
FRWDGHSLD GLQPRGHOXO0DUNRY
EXFvQOXQDQRLHPEULH
%URZQ SHQWUX RSWLP DSRL vQ OXQD QRLHPEULH OD QLYHOXO F úL vQ GHFHPEULH OD
(2900 + c)
&RPSDUDUHD GLIHULWHORU SRVLELOLW L GH GHVI úXUDUH D SURGXF LHL VH IDFH SULQ SULVPD XQRU
FRQVHFLQ HGHWLSSLHUGHUHDVWIHO
- GDF RIHUWDHVWHPDLPDUHGHFkWFHUHUHDDWXQFL
SURGXVXO $ FD GLQ FRVWXO XQLWDU GH SURGXF LH úL SHQDOL]DUHD GH GLQ FRVWXO XQLWDU DO
produsului B2002.
DSURGXF LHL
QLYHOXO V VH LGHQWLILFH FHD PDL EXQ YDULDQW GHFL]LRQDO 6H YD IRORVL vQ
DFHVWFD]PRGHOXOPDWULFHDOGHGHFL]LHvQFRQGL LLGHULVF
In modelul matriFHDO DO GHFL]LLORU vQ FRQGL LL GH ULVF SHQWUX FRPSDUDUHD GLIHULWHORU
- VH HVWLPHD] FHUHUHD SHQWUX SURGXVXO % FD VXP D YkQ] ULORU SHQWUX SHULRDGD
octombrie-decembrie
SN2 -VHHVWLPHD] FHUHUHDSHQWUXSURGXVXO$FRWDGHSDUWLFLSDUHSHSLD GLQPRGHOXO
- VH HVWLPHD] FHUHUHD SHQWUX SURGXVXO % FD VXP D YkQ] ULORU SHQWUX SHULRDGD
octombrie-decembrie
SN3 -VHHVWLPHD] FHUHUHDSHQWUXSURGXVXO$FRWDGHSDUWLFLSDUHSHSLD GLQPRGHOXO
- VH HVWLPHD] FHUHUHD SHQWUX SURGXVXO % FD VXP D YkQ] ULORU SHQWUX SHULRDGD
octombrie-decembrie
6H FRQVWUXLHúWH PDWULFHD FRQVHFLQ HORU VXPD FKHOWXLHOLORU SHQWUX VWRFDUH VDX SHQDOL] UL SHQWUX
FHOHGRX SURGXVH
prezentate în Tabelul 9.
Tabelul 9
Starea naturii SN1 SN2 SN3
Variante decizionale
V1 602,9619 61,9913 184,065
V2 209,4307 231,2457 402,2395
V3 115,1141 246,4467 460,0308
'HH[HPSOXSHQWUXFRPELQD LD9úL61
Rezolvare
3UREOHPDSRDWHILUH]ROYDW FXSURGXVHOHLQIRUPDWLFH
$QDOL]DHFRQRPLF DUH]XOWDWHORU
1. 5HFRPDQG UL GH DOHJHUH D FHOHL PDL SRWULYLWH UHJXOL GH GHFL]LH GLQ FHOH I olosite: Wald
(minmax), maxmax, Savage (minmax regret), Laplace (equal likelihood), Hurwicz;
2. (VWLPDUHD FRVWXOXL PD[LP SHQWUX DFKL]L LRQDUHD XQRU LQIRUPD LL FRPSOHWH DVXSUD VW ULORU
naturii;
3. 5HFRPDQG ULGHDOHJHUHDYDORULLFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHRSWLPLVPSHQWUX regula/criteriul Hurwicz;
4. Surclasarea variantelor decizionale.
3.9. &DOFXOXO QHFHVDUXOXL GH UHVXUVH PDWHULDOH úL XPDQH SH ED]D QRUPHORU GLQ ILúHOH
tehnologice
$WHOLHUXO GH 5HYL]LL úL 5HSDUD LL DO 6& 352026,0 6$ vVL FRQIHF LRQHD] SLHVHOH GH
schimb GH FDUH DUH QHYRLH SHQWUX UHSDUD LL 5HDOL]DUHD vQ EXQH FRQGL LL D SURJUDPXOXL GH UHSDUD LL
SUHVXSXQH GHWHUPLQDUHD DWkW D QXP UXOXL GH VXEDQVDPEOH SLHVH GH VFKLPE FRPSXVH VDX VLPSOH
QHFHVDUH SHQWUX UHSDUD LL vQ SHULRDGD XUP WRDUH FkW úL D PDWHULDOHORU QHFHVDUH SHQWUX FRQIHF LRQDUHD
lor. Structurile arborescente pentru cele mai utilizate subansambluri sunt prezentate în Figura 3.
A1 A2
P1 R3(2) P1(2) P2
R1 R2(2) R1 R2(2) R3 R4
Figura 3
1HFHVDUXOGHFRPSRQHQWHSHQWUXSURJUDPXOGHUHSDUD LLVWRFXOLQL LDOVWRFXOILQDOúLFRQVXPXO
VSHFLILFGLQPDWHULDOHOH0úL0VXQWGDWHvQ7DEHOXO
Tabelul 10
Modelul economico-matematic
Pe baza structXULORU DUERUHVFHQWH DOH VXEDQVDPEOHORU $ úL $ VH SRDWH FRQVWUXL XQ
PRGHO PDWULFHDO SHQWUX GHWHUPLQDUHD QHFHVDUXOXL GH VXEDQVDPEOH úL FRPSRQHQWH
Rezolvare
Pentru rezolvare se va utiliza produsul informatic EXSUM, [23], pag. 9 – 13
$QDOL]DHFRQRPLF DUH]XOWDWHORU
valoarea c ≠ 0 va include:
1. Necesarul de componente pentru realizarea prograPXOXL GH UHSDUD LL LQkQG FRQW GH VWRFXO
H[LVWHQWODVIkUúLWXOSHULRDGHLW úLVWRFXOGRULWODvQFHSXWXOSHULRDGHLW
-
1HFHVDUXO GH PDWHULDOH 0 úL 0 SHQWUX UHDOL]DUHD UHSHUHORU LQkQG FRQW GH VWRFXULOH GH
6&352026,06$GLVSXQHGHPLOLDUGHOHLSHQWUXPRGHUQL]DUHDFHORUVHF LLDOHVDOH
S-au estimat efectele economice ( mld. lei) pentru multiplii de 20 mld. lei conform Tabelului 11.
Tabelul 11
Efecte economice
Fondul alocat 6HF LD, 6HF LD,, 6HF LD,,,
0 0 0 0
1*20 mld 10,2 + c/100 8,1 + c/100 7,3 + c/100
2*20 mld 11,3 + c/100 8,5 + c/100 8,2 + c/100
3*20 mld 12,3 + c/100 8,8 + c/100 9,3 + c/100
4*20 mld 13,2 + c/100 9,2 + c/100 9,6 + c/100
5*20 mid 13,8 + c/100 9,2 + c/100 10,1 + c/100
6H GRUHúWH V VH FXQRDVF SROLWLFD GH DORFDUH D IRQGXOXL GLVSRQLELO FDUH V DVLJXUH RE LQHUHD
Modelul economico-matematic
$ORFDUHD RSWLP D UHVXUVHORU E QHúWL vQ IXQF LH GH HIHFWXO HFRQRPLF VH SRDWH UHDOL]D
FX DMXWRUXO XQXL PRGHO GH SURJUDPDUH GLQDPLF FRQVWUXLW SH ED]D SULQFLSLXOXL
RSWLPDOLW LLDOOXL%HOOPDQ
Rezolvare
6ROX LD SUREOHPHL VH RE LQH FX DMXWRUXO SURGXVXOXL LQIRUPDWLF MANAGER1/ Dinamic, [23],
pag. 158 – 163.
$QDOL]DHFRQRPLF DUH]XOWDWHORU
3.11. 5HGXFHUHD FKHOWXLHOLORU FDX]DWH GH vQWUHUXSHUHD SURFHVXOXL GH SURGXF LH SHQWUX
SURGXFWLYH 'LQ DQDOL]D GDWHORU H[WUDVH GLQ ILúD XWLODMXOXL UH]XOW F LQWHUYDOXO GH WLPS GLQWUH
GHIHF LXQL VXFFHVLYH HVWH R YDULDELO DOHDWRDUH FX GLVWULEX LH GH SUREDELOLWDWH XQLIRUP FX PHGLD vQ
LQWHUYDOXO > @ RUH 3RW IL OXDWH vQ FRQVLGHUDUH DOWHUQDWLYH 9 úL 9 GH HIHFWXDUH D UHYL]LLORU úL
UHSDUD LLORUFXFDUDFWHULVWLFLOHvQVFULVHvQ7DEHOXOXL
Tabelul 12
V1 150 + c 2 1
V2 250 + c 4 1
)LHFDUH XWLODM FDUH QX IXQF LRQHD] FDX]HD] R SLHUGHUH GH SURGXF LH vQ YDORDUH GH F
Modelul economico-matematic
)HQRPHQXO GH DúWHSWDUH FDUH DSDUH vQ DFHVW SURFHV VH FDUDFWHUL]HD] SULQWU -o
GLVWULEX LH XQLIRUP D VRVLULORU úL R GLVWULEX LH QRUPDO D VHUYLULORU Pentru acest tip
GHSURFHVGHDúWHSWDUHQXH[LVW XQPRGHODQDOLWLFGHDFHHDVHYDXWLOL]DXQPRGHOGH
Rezolvare:
3UREOHPDVHUH]ROY FXSURGXVXOLQIRUPDWLF MANAGER2/ Astfix, [23], pag. 156 – 158.
$QDOL]DHFRQRPLF DUH]XOWDWHORU
YDULDQW
&RVWXO WRWDO GH DúWHSWDUH DO YDULDQWHL 9 0HGLD WLPSXOXL PHGLX GH DúWHSWDUH
0HGLD
(150+c)
&RVWXO WRWDO GH DúWHSWDUH DO YDULDQWHL 9 0HGLD WLPSXOXL PHGLX GH DúWHSWDUH
0HGLD
(250+c)
6H YD DOHJH YDULDQWD FX FRVWXO WRWDO PDL PLF úL VH YRU DQDOL]D IDFWRULL FDUH DX GHWHUPLQDW DFHO
cost.
3.12. ([DPLQDUHD FDSDFLW LORU GH GHSR]LWDUH DOH ILUPHL SHQWUX PDWHULLOH SULPH úL PDWHULDOHOH
QHFHVDUHSURFHVXOXLGHIDEULFD LH
'LQ FDX]D SDUWLFXODULW LORU SURFHVXOXL GH SURGXF LH D FDSDFLW LL OLPLWDWH úL D FRQGL LLORU GH
5 9 11 14 12 2 4 7 9 13
7 10 15 13 9 10 13 15 15 17
³,QWU UL´ ³,HúLUL´
5 11 15 9 5 9 11 13 13 17
10 15 8 9 11 10 5 11 8 16
13 15 17 14 10 12 11 8 15 17
OLSVD PDWHULDOHORU vQ VWRF LPSOLF XQ FRVW GH SHQDOL]DUH GH F XQLW L PRQHWDUHXQLWDWH IL]LF ]L
FRQGXFHUHD ILUPHL 352026,0 GRUHúWH V DOHDJ P ULPHD VWRFXOXL LQL LDO FDUH FRQGXFH OD FKHOWXLHOL
Modelul economico-matematic
3URFHVXO GH VWRFDUH SUH]HQWDW VH FDUDFWHUL]HD] DWkW SULQ FHUHUH LHúLUL DOHDWRDUH FkW
úL SULQ FDQWLW LOH DSURYL]LRQDWH LQWU UL DOHDWRDUH 3HQWUX DVWIHO GH SURFHVH GH
$QDOL]DHFRQRPLF DUH]XOWDWHORU
mediu;
3. &KHOWXLHOLOHWRWDOHGHVWRFDUHúLSHQDOL]DUHSHQWUXILHFDUHYDULDQW GHVWRFLQL LDO