PUC 3103 FUNDAMENTALS OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

CAT I

MICHAEL MWENDWA MWONGA

CE 301 – 0004/2019
1. A test is graded on the scale 0 to 1, with 0.55 needed to pass. Student scores are
modelled by the following density:
1
4x for 0 ≤ x ≤
2
1
f(x) = 4 - 4x for ≤x≤1
2
0, otherwise
What is the probability that a random student passes the exam?
P(x ≥ 0.55)
Integrate the pdf with (0.55 – 1) limits
1

P(x ≥ 0.55) = ∫ (4−4 x¿)¿

0.55

Integrating; P = 4 x−2 x 210.55

P = 0.405 ≈ 40.5%
2. Suppose X is a random variable with cdf
0 for x < 0
f(x) = x (2-x) for 0 ≤ x ≤ 1
1, for x > 1
Find P (X < 0.4)
x1

P (X < x1) = ∫ f ( x ) dx
−∞

0.4

P (X < 0.4) = = ∫ ¿ ¿2)

0

2 −x 3 0.4
Integrating; P =x
3 0
P = 0.1387
3. (a) (i) In a 100 km stretch of a highway, the road conditions are such that the likelihood of
accidents increases continuously up to a distance of 40 km and then decreases. If x is the
random variable denoting the distance at which accidents occur, then the pdf of x is given by
C
x for 0 ≤ x ≤ 40
40
C
f(x) = ( 100−x ) for 40 ≤ x ≤ 100
60
Find the condition under which this function is a valid pdf
For a function f(x) to be a pdf it must fulfil the following conditions
1. f(x) ≥ 0 for all x
∞

2. ∫ f ( x) dx =1
−∞

From 2 above,
40 100
c c
∫ ( 40 x )dx + ∫ (100−x) = 1
0 40 60

40 100
x c
c∫ ( )dx + ∫ (100−x) = 1
0 40 60 40

x 2 40 c x2 100
c + 60 100x -
80 0 2 40
20c + 30c = 1; c = 0.02
0.0005 x for 0 ≤ x ≤ 40
0.02
f(x) = (100−x) for 40 ≤ x ≤ 100 This is a valid pdf
60

(ii) At a particular station, the probability density function of daily rainfall (in is expressed as
0.25 for x = 0
f(x) = 0.15e  0.2x for x  0
0, elsewhere
Formulate the CDF
x

F(x) = P (X < x) = ∫ f ( x ) dx
−∞

∫ 0.25 dx for x = 0
−∞
 x

f(x) = ∫ (0.15 e 0.2 x ) dxfor x  0

−∞

∫ 0 dx elsewhere
−∞

x
0
∫ 0.25 dx = 0.25 x−∞ =0
−∞

∫ (0.15 e−0.2x ) dx= −0.75 e−0.2 x0x

0

∫ 0 dx = 0
−∞

0 for x = 0

F(x) = (−0.75 e−0.2 x )for x  0

0, elsewhere
b) The present air traffic volume at an airport (number of landings and take-offs) during the
hour is a normal variable with a mean of 200 and a standard deviation of 60 airplanes. If the
present runway capacity (for landings and take-offs) is 350 planes per hour,
(i) What is currently the probability of air traffic congestion?
This is a non – standard normal distribution since μ ≠ 0 and σ ≠ 1
To standardise, we standardise the normal distribution using;
x−μ
Z=
σ
Probability of air traffic congestion P(x > 350);

b−μ
P(x > 350) = 1 - ∅
σ
b−μ 350−200
P = = 2.5
σ 60
∅2.5 = Z2.5 = 0.9938
P(x > 350) = 1 - ∅2.5
= 0.0062 ≈ 0.62%
(ii) What is the air traffic volume that will be exceeded with 20%
probability?

4. A hospital studied its food wastage in December 2019 and discovered that an average
amount of 134 kg of food was discarded every day.
Assume that the amount of discarded food per day is normally distributed with expected
value µ = 134 kg. In order to reduce food wastage, the hospital introduced a new catering
system for providing meals, called “At your request”. It allows patients to order food at any
time of the day. The amount of food discarded in the hospital was again determined on ten
randomly selected days in January 2020. The mean amount appeared to be 94 kg, with
standard deviation 16 kg. Test whether the new catering system is effective.
Given; sampling mean µ = 134 kg,
Sample size n = 10,
Sample mean x́ = 94kg
Sample standard deviation σ = 16kg
1. Parameter of interest – true average of food wasted.
2. Null value µ0 = 134 kg
Null Hypothesis H0: µ = µ0
3. Alternative Hypothesis Ha: µ < 134
x́−μ x́−134
4. Test statistic T = =
s /√ n 16/√ 10
5. Rejection criteria; reject Ho if T ≤ -T∝v
6. Consider a significance level of ∝ = 0.01.
-T∝v = -T0.01,9 = -2.821
94−134
7. 7. Test statistic T = = -7.906
16 /√ 10
8. Since T < -T∝v reject the null hypothesis
Conclusion: the catering system is effective since at ∝=0.01 there is enough evidence to
show that the amount of food wastage is reduced.