Rolul metalelor pretioase in economie

Ca si o continuare a postului anterior despre aur ca investitie, voi discuta azi despre modul in
care metalele pretioase au functionat ca moneda timp de mii de ani si care a fost rolul acestora
in economie.

Intrebarea pe care am mai primit-o este cu ce este mai deosebita o bucata de metal fata de una
de hartie ? Iar raspunsul pe care l-am dat este: faptul ca bucatile de metal sunt LIMITATE. Si
nu pot fi produse "virtual" la infinit cu o imprimanta sau un click de mouse.

Pentru a intelege exact cum se face aceasta limitare si de ce este acest fapt unul pozitiv,
recomand calduros un articol mai detaliat exact pe aceasta tema: Gold and Economic Freedom

Periodically, as a result of overly rapid credit expansion, banks became loaned up to the limit
of their gold reserves, interest rates rose sharply, new credit was cut off, and the economy
went into a sharp, but short-lived recession. (Compared with the depressions of 1920 and
1932, the pre-World War I business declines were mild indeed.) It was limited gold reserves
that stopped the unbalanced expansions of business activity, before they could develop into
the post-World War I type of disaster.

Periodic, ca urmare a expansiunii prea rapide a creditării, băncile au devenit împrumutate

până la limita rezervelor lor de aur, ratele dobânzilor au crescut brusc,creditele noi au fost
tăiate, iar economia a intrat în recesiune puternică, dar de scurtă durată. (Comparativ cu
depresiunile din 1920 şi 1932, dinaintea primului război mondial scaderi de afaceri au fost
uşoare, într-adevăr.) rezervele limitate de aur, au fost cele care au oprit extinderi
dezechilibrate ale activității de afaceri, înainte ca acestea să se fi putut dezvolta în tipologia
dezastrului de după primul război mondial.

The readjustment periods were short and the economies quickly reestablished a sound basis
to resume expansion.

With a logic reminiscent of a generation earlier, statists argued that the gold standard was
largely to blame for the credit debacle which led to the Great Depression. If the gold
standard had not existed, they argued, Britain's abandonment of gold payments in 1931
would not have caused the failure of banks all over the world. (The irony was that since 1913,
we had been, not on a gold standard, but on what may be termed "a mixed gold standard";
yet it is gold that took the blame.) But the opposition to the gold standard in any form-from a
growing number of welfare-state advocates-was prompted by a much subtler insight: the
realization that the gold standard is incompatible with chronic deficit spending (the hallmark
of the welfare state).

Articolul nu specifica deloc cum ca vai ce rele sunt creditarea sau tranzactiile electronice. Nici
pe departe. Creditul are rostul sau in dezvoltarea economica, atata timp cat creditarea este
facuta cu cap si lucrurile nu scapa de sub control asa cum s-a intamplat tot mai frecvent in
ultimii ani.

Rolul aurului sau a metalelor pretioase sau a oricarei resurse FINITE luate ca referinta este
tocmai acela de a limita. De a limita riscurile luate de banci, de a limita creditarea in exces, de
a limita furtul la nivel de guverne prin inflatie. Este modul in care regulile jocului ajung sa fie
respectate de toata lumea si sistemul poate ramane sub control.
Altfel jocul cu focul duce la tot felul de situatii critice cu care ne-am tot intalnit in ultimul
secol dupa infiintarea FED si primul sut dat aurului in 1913: marea depresiune, urmata de
razboi, apoi de monopol financiar cu dolarul drept moneda de referinta. Apoi un al doilea sut
dat aurului in anii 1970 cand s-a renuntat la garantarea prin metale pretioase, urmat de inflatie
spectaculoasa, baloane de tot felul si culminat cu prabusirea sistemului economic de acum.

Nu confundati evolutia tehnologica si cresterea fara precedent a nivelului de trai din ultimul
secol cu cresterea inflatiei si balonarea sistemului economic. Explozia care a avut loc in
ultimul secol a fost de fapt rezultatul unei combinatii de factori data de progresul tehnologic,
trecerea la petrol ca si sursa principala de energie, destramarea imperiilor si reformele sociale
de la inceput de secol si cercetarea impulsionata si de cursele pentru inarmare in razboaiele
ultimului secol. Faptul ca fluturasii de hartie ai bancilor au zburat precum confetti in tot acest
timp au adus doar un plus de "farmec" la petrecerea care era oricum in desfasurare. Insa
mizeria care a ramas in urma lor ne va da un pic de furca acum cand trebuie sa maturam
tonele de confetti si ne dam seama ca nu mai incap sub covor ca pana mai anii trecuti... :)

Din aceste motive eu vad un viitor sistem economic care va aparea ulterior colapsului
financiar din acest an, ca fiind bazat intr-o forma sau alta pe metalele pretioase. Cu rolul de a
limita creditarea in exces, asa cum o faceau inainte de infiintarea FED in 1913. Si cu rolul de
a opri inflatia si nivelul incredibil al datoriilor asa cum o faceau inainte de abolirea totala a
garantarii cu aur din 1970. Dupa cum puteti vedea si in imaginea alaturata si in prezentarile
lui Chris Martenson.

Inchei acum tot cu un articol excelent pe tema aurului si a viitorului raport pe care acesta il va
avea cu banii de hartie pe care ii cunoastem acum. Recomand si citirea integrala a acestuia ca
si a celui de la inceputul topicului, deoarece sunt niste prezentari excelente pe tema sistemelor
financiare trecute, actuale si viitoare:

Gold: Musings & Peptalk

FUTURE USDOLLAR ALTERNATIVES

The Arabs, Russians, and Germans have already made decisions for new global reserve
currencies. They will not only have a gold component, but a crude oil component as well.
They might have other commodity components such as iron or copper. Include cotton too,
which is needed to make the paper! The objective is to seek stability in both the banking
sector and commodity price sector. Due to US$ foundation, and US$-based trading, the
banking sector has been rendered insolvent and the commodity price arenas have been
rendered fallacious. That cannot stand. For now, the new global reserve currencies have
been shoved in a drawer at a guarded conference table. What are they waiting for? Simply
stated, they are waiting for the US$ to die a horrible death, for the global US$-based banking
system to demand an alternative amidst crisis, for the political interference to fade from the
passage of time and the expedience of need. The foreigners need not act, since nature is
taking its course. The liquidation process underway inside the US is painful and inexorable,
yet certainly unstoppable.

http://blog.flavian.ro/2009/03/rolul-metalelor-pretioase-in-economie.html
Alternative monetare - monedele inter-regionale si aurul

Aceasta e partea a sasea a seriei alternativelor monetare si o continuare a partii a cincea de

aici: Alternative monetare - varianta monede locale. Va avertizez in prealabil ca din acest
episod al seriei intram pe taramuri necunoscute, nisipuri miscatoare, teorii necercetate si idei
mai mult sau mai putin utopice. In caz de reactii adverse "consultati medicul sau farmacistul"
si aruncati cu idei, nu dati cu bolovani... :)

Ok, deci asa cum multi "binevoitori" s-au grabit sa observe, alternativa cu monedele locale are
si cateva dezavantaje. Nu, faptul ca banii nu vor mai fi in mana guvernului si vor putea fi
administrati de emitentii locali, nu este unul din dezavantaje. Ba chiar e un avantaj major. Si
va dau un exemplu din zilele noastre ca sa intelegeti ideea: bonurile de masa sau bonurile
cadou.

Acestea functioneaza in multe aspecte exact ca o moneda locala alternativa: circula in paralel
cu o moneda de baza, sunt emise de societati independente, contin elemente de siguranta, sunt
recunoscute drept modalitate de plata in magazine etc. Ei, ati vazut ca deja precedentul
exista ? De aici pana la monede alternative si independente de moneda oficiala a tarii mai e
doar un pas... :)

Dar sa revenim la articolul nostru. Spuneam de unul din principalele dezavantaje ale
monedelor locale care este circulatia lor internationala. Intr-o lume care s-a obisnuit cu o
moneda gen euro sau dolar care e aproape universal recunoscuta, e cam greu sa-ti imaginezi
revenirea la o multitudine de monede locale fara a avea un punct de referinta comun.

Si atunci, care ar putea fi acel punct de referinta ? Acel element care sa poata face mai usoara
convertirea unei monezi regionale in alta moneda, in momentul pierderii de incredere in dolar
sau alti bani de hartie "oficiali" si arhi-cunoscuti in ziua de azi. Ramane sa gasim aceast
element care va functiona ca o moneda inter-regionala si care sa poata fi usor recunoscuta ca
si valoare etalon oriunde pe planeta.

In istoria omenirii au mai fost cateva astfel de elemente care au jucat rolul acesta pana s-a
intamplat ce s-a intamplat. Cel mai usor ne vin in minte metalele pretioase care au indeplinit
aceasta functie timp de cateva mii de ani, pana la inventarea banilor de hartie. Asa ca mi-am
propus in acest articol sa vedem daca o revenire la acest etalon ar fi posibila.

Mda, la prima vedere aurul ar putea fi o solutie intermediara usor de adoptat. De ce spun
intermediara ? Pai la fel cum banii de hartie in genul dolarului produsi in cantitate nelimitata
au dus la abuzuri si la dezintegrarea sistemului economic actual, trebuie sa verificam daca asa
ceva nu s-ar putea intampla si in cazul productiei de aur.

In momentul de fata, aurul este produs doar prin exploatari miniere, ce-i drept nu foarte
prietenoase pentru planeta. Asta ar genera o usoara inflatie, insa mai redusa si in limite mult
mai acceptabile decat cea actuala. Ar mai fi oare si alte metode de producere a aurului in
cantitati masive care sa ne faca probleme inflationiste din acest punct de vedere ?

Cum, voi n-ati auzit de alchimie ? Cu putin talent si concentrare, transformi cuprul in aur si
gata. Ah, credeati ca de "alchimia bancara" imi fac eu griji ? Nuu, stati linistiti, cei care
transforma in zilele noastre hartia in aur oricum n-o mai duc mult... :)
Dar pe langa asta, John mai ridica inca o problema interesanta:
Aurul & argintul pot fi produse artificial. Cantitatea de energie necesara este foarte mare si
pretzul cu cateva ordine de magnitudine peste costurile operatziunilor de minerit & rafinare.
Dar, daca s-ar descoperi o sursa ieftina de energie (gen fuziune) s-ar putea produce aur in
cantitatzi industriale.

http://blog.flavian.ro/2009/08/alternative-monetare-monedele-inter.html

De ce ar trebui sa detii aur si argint fizic ?

 De 5000 de ani incoace, aurul si argintul sunt singurele active care nu au dat faliment. Pentru
ca sunt active reale, fizice, cu valoare intrinseca proprie, cei ce vand aur pe care il detin nu pot
ajunge niciodata la "zero" cu valoarea personala.

 Sunt active care sunt complet private si nu sunt parte a sistemului financiar.

 Sunt printre putinele active care nu sunt in acelasi timp pasivele altcuiva. Cu alte cuvinte,
valoarea lor nu depinde de capacitatea unei terte persoane de a-si onora obligatiile. Actiunile,
obligatiunile, contractele derivate, chiar si cash-ul, depind de bonitatea emitentului. Daca un
stat este desfiintat, acelasi lucru se intampla cu valuta lui.

 Pot fi detinute in proportie de 100%. De exemplu, imobiliarele nu pot fi detinute 100%

niciodata; doar incercati sa nu va platiti impozitul pe proprietate si veti vedea cine este
adevaratul proprietar.

 Sunt considerate a fi active "de refugiu in ultima instanta", valoarea lor crescand pe timp de
criza financiara, razboi, calamitati naturale, atentate teroriste.

 Au un istoric bun de a face fata atat inflatiei cat si deflatiei.

 Au o valoare financiara foarte mare pe unitatea de volum, ceea ce inseamna ca o cantitate

foarte mica de aur sau argint pur poseda o putere de cumparare semnificativ mai mare decat
a celorlalte materii prime sau "commodities".

 Au un "spread" foarte mic intre ofertele de cumparare si cele de vanzare, adica sunt lichide,
mult mai lichide decat diamantele de exemplu (uneori peste 100% diferenta bid/ask )

 Aurul si argintul sunt FUNGIBILE, adica fiecare unitate de masura are aceleasi caracteristici
fizice, si se pot imparti foarte usor fara a se pierde proprietatile intregului. Diamantele sau
monedele de colectie au nevoie de un evaluator profesionist pentru a determina valoarea,
partile neavand aceleasi proprietati ca intregul.

 Aurul si argintul au fost, sunt si vor fi BANI. Acum stiti de ce anume bancile centrale din lume
inca detin in seifuri 15% din rezervele mondiale de aur. Stiu ele ceva, nu credeti ?

http://www.aurmonedelingouri.com/

O scurta si rapida reactie la interventia publica recenta a Presedintelui Bancii Mondiale,

Robert Zoellick. Acesta, este de acum stiut, tocmai a dat o lovitura surprinzatoare  si
bulversanta unui tabu de mult inradacinat in elita economistilor si marilor actori din lumea
bancar-financiara. Sa vorbesti despre rolul aurului ca « stabilizator » al sistemului financiar
international, era pana nu de mult o erezie. Cei ce o faceau, erau imediat catalogati drept
paseisti, naivi sau mai rau, rudimentari in intelegerea complexitatilor sistemului monetar-
financiar international. Aurul era considerat o relicva a unui sistem de mult depasit. Un
barbarism.

Iata insa ca vine o vreme cand complexitatea sistemului ajunge atat de complexa ca pana si
creierele complexe care se laudau mai ieri ca pot  intelege si calibra sistemul monetar-
financiar la milimetru, trebuie sa ia o pauza complexa de gandire. Aurul se pare ca totusi are
un rol in sistem. Vrei nu vrei, ca si in chestia datoriei publice, realitatea economica te obliga
sa iei act de ea: Nu poti consuma la infinit mai mult decat produci. Dai aurul afara pe usa,
reintra pe geam. samd

Interventia lui Zoellick este probabil una istorica. Comentariile si reactiile la ea vor curge in
zilele si saptamanile urmatoare. Vom avea timp sa ne ocupam pe indelete de presupozitiile,
fundalul istoric, implicatiile si semnificatiile problemei. Acum, la cald, sa ne concentram pe
ceva mai urgent.

Vedem in jurul nostru ca sistemul financiar-monetar a intrat intr-o faza de turbulenta. Nu stim
incotro merg lucrurile. Stim doar ca stabilitatea actualului aranjament institutional global este
sub semnul intrebarii. Ideea de razboi valutar – de neimaginat doar cu putina vreme in urma –
pluteste in aer. Multe etaloanele de valoare par daca nu bulversate, atunci erodate. Nu e o
chestiune conjuncturala. E una structurala.

Ce se intampla pe acest fundal? Aurul se intareste. Aurul devine un refugiu ultim. Functiile
sale de etalon de valoare si de instrument de conservare de valoare stralucesc mai puternic si
mai vizibil ca niciodata. Ce inseamna asta? Inseamna ca pretul aurului creste.

Va continua sa creasca? Nu stim. Dar ce stim este ca atat timp cat conditiile de turbulenta si
incertitudine se mentin, conditiile care fac ca valoarea aurului sa se mentina sau sa creasca,
vor fi si ele acolo.

Cele de mai sus inseamna, evident, ceva foarte important pentru cei ce se intampla sa aiba un
zacamant de aur in fundul gradinii. Inseamna ca averea lor a crescut in ultima perioada
substantial. Turbulentele prezente si viitoare fac ca groapa cu minereu din fundul curtii sa
devina chiar mai importanta decat credeau.  Mai ales daca este cea mai mare groapa din
comuna sau chiar din zona. Pare un moment bun ca sa negociezi in jurul aurului pe care il ai,
daca il ai.

Acestea fiind spuse, cineva, precum autorul de fata, un om simplu, care nu pretinde o mare
expertiza in privinta pietei metalelor pretioase, sau a negocierilor internationale legate de
investii straine directe si care nici macar nu pretinde ca ar avea cine stie ce stiinta a
complexitatilor sistemelor finaciare globale, nu poate sa nu se intrebe naiv: Iata ca Dumnezeu
da Romaniei o carte mare. Stiu guvernantii Romaniei sa o joace?

In naivitatea sa, el recunoaste ca statul a intrat cu multa vreme in urma in aceasta afacere. Dar
observa in acelasi timp cum conditiile s-au schimbat intre timp. Poate, isi zice el, si
negocierile trebuie sa se ajusteze un pic la noile conditii. De aia sunt negocieri, sa evolueze
conform parametrilor in schimbare.
Sigur, poate ca nu pragmatismul ci naivitatea ne sugereaza ca ar fi intelept sa ne tragem un pic
sufletul si sa reevaluam ce se intampla in jurul nostru. Ca poate ca ar fi bine sa ridicam
piciorul de pe accelaratie si sa punem o delicata si amiabila frana pe acest proiect. O scurta
pauza de reflectie -si pentru partea romana si pentru partenerul ei – nu poate fi asa de rea.
Poate ca nu e bine pentru niciuna dintre cele doua parti sa mearga inainte fara a intelege mai
bine care sunt directiile pricipalelor forte ce afecteaza valoarea de piata a proiectului in
discutie. Etalonul aur de care vorbea implicit Zoellick poate ca nu inseamna nimic. Sau poate
ca inseamna multe. Foarte multe.

In plus, ar merita sa putem vedea si noi, public larg, in mod transparent, pe unde mai sunt
aceste discutii intre statul roman si diligentul si investitor strain. Poate ca in naivitatea noastra,
noi publicul, am putea ajuta un pic partea romana. Poate i-am da sansa  sa aiba o pozitie mai
buna in negociere, fie si daca spunem prostii cum sunt cele de mai sus. Negociatorul roman,
ar putea folosi pretextul acestor prostii pentru a obtine un contract mai bun pentru Romania.

Pragmatism sau naivitate, e de reflectat daca merita sa ne gandim la aceste lucruri. Oricum, la
sfasit, cand se va trage linia, cineva trebuie sa iasa in fata Romaniei si sa-si asume
responsabilitatea. Sa ne raporteze ca a negociat inteligent si sa ne demonstreze ca a obtinut cel
mai bun contractposibil pentru tara.

Ca sa fie credibil, acest cineva, oricine ar fi el, trebuie sa ne dea sansa si noua, celor naivi si
neinformati, sa intelegem din cand in cand, cum si in ce directie evolueaza aceste negocieri.
Si mai ales sa ne ajute sa intelegem daca negociatorul roman vede vreo legatura intre
evolutiile recente din sistemul monetar-financiar international si maruntele noastre preocupari
din fundul gradinii, de pe langa groapa cu minereu.

http://www.contributors.ro/dezbatere/standardul-aur-de-la-banca-mondiala-la-rosia-montana/

Presedintele Bancii Mondiale, Robert Zoellick scrie un foarte interesant editorial in Financial
Times, scrie Dan Popa pe blogul sau. Vorbeste despre rolul aurului ca "stabilizator" al
sistemului financiar international. El mai spune ca lumea are nevoie de un nou sistem monetar
international care sa-i urmeze celui actual - supranumit Breton Woods II. "Cu toate ca
manualele ne  vorbesc despre aur ca despre o moneda veche, pietele actuale il trateaza ca pe
un activ monetar alternativ", mai spune Zoellick.

Noul sistem, care in opinia sefului BM, ar trebui sa includa dolarul sua, euro, yenul, lira
sterlina si yuanul chinez (renminbi) ar putea utiliza aurul ca referinta pentru tot ce inseamna
previziuni legate de inflatie, deflatie si valoarea viitoare a valutelor.

Cu siguranta, toti stiu ca pretul unciei de aur a urcat in ultima perioada pe fondul slabirii
dolarului ca efect al deciziilor de politica monetara a FED.

Propunerile lui Zoellick intervin intr-un moment in care toata lumea se cearta cu toata lumea,
iar joi si vineri urmeaza sa aiba loc o noua runda de discutii intre statele G20, discutiile
urmand sa abordeze celebrul deja razboi al monedelor. FED a fost foarte criticata in ultima
perioada pentru injectia masiva cu dolari a pietelor - sursa de dezechilibre majore, spun unii.
Degeaba spune Bernanke ca nu vrea sa genereze inflatie, ca mai nimeni nu il crede. Ministerul
de Finante german spune brutal ca modelul american de crestere este pur si simplu in criza.
BCE si Federal Reserveisi etaleaza divergentele. Americanii dau vina pe chinezi si pe moneda
lor subevaluata. Bernanke a iesit zilele trecute chiar pe Jeckyll Island cu un discurs pasional si
chiar nervos pe alocuri, criticandu-i la randul lui pe cei care il critica. Tot mai multi spun ca la
viitoarea reuniune a G20, americanii vor fi izolati.

http://www.ziuaonline.ro/economic/finante/7537-presedintele-bancii-mondiale-propune-ca-aurul-
sa-fie-stabilizatorul-sistemului-financiar-international.html

Unde se opreşte goana după aur?

Piata bursiera - Adrian Panaite / adrian.panaite@curierulnational.ro
(citeste alte articole de acelasi autor »)

Preţul metalului galben a atins la sfârşitul săptămânii trecute un nou maxim de 1386
USD/uncie
Investitorii şi traderii spun că este reacţia pieţei la rularea tiparniţelor băncilor centrale
Avansul aurului ar putea fi oprit doar de ridicarea ratelor de dobândă

Cotaţia internaţională a aurului s-a apropiat de 1.400 USD/uncie, după creşterea accelerată din
ultimele săptămâni. Preţul spot de la Londra a atins joi un nou maxim istoric de 1.386,8
USD/uncie în condiţiile în care oficiali ai băncilor centrale din SUA, Japonia şi Marea Britanie au
făcut publică intenţia de devalorizare a monedelor prin programe extinse de "quantitative easing".
În anticiparea lichidităţii suplimentare, investitorii şi traderii s-au îndreptat către aur, care a avut în
prima parte a lunii octombrie o apreciere furibundă, ceea ce îi face pe unii observatori să afirme că
ar fi exagerarea specifică finalului de trend.
Ascensiunea metalului galben este susţinută şi de începutul unei perioade de cinci-şase luni în
care cererea din economia reală este sporită în condiţiile în care în acest răstimp sunt aglomerate
sezonul nunţilor din India, Crăciunul şi Anul Nou chinezesc. Totuşi, teama de inflaţie rămâne
principalul motor al acestui trade, iar unii reprezentanţi ai pieţei spun că preţul va creşte şi mai
mult. "Încă nu aţi văzut nimic!", exclamă Peter Schiff, preşedinte al casei de brokeraj Euro Pacific
Capital.
Scepticii pun la îndoială rolul aurului ca mijloc de protecţie a inflaţiei, sugerând că este vorba
doar de o manie a participanţilor la piaţă. "Cred că povestea aurului s-a terminat şi a obosit",
spune Tres Knippa, trader la Chicago Mercantile Exchange şi proprietar al Lotus Brokerage
Services. Cu toate acestea, o întoarcere a aurului pe o tendinţă de scădere ar trebui să fie
determinată de un factor declanşator pe care Francisco Blanch de la Bank of America Merrill
Lynch îl vede a fi - ca şi la începutul anilor '80 - un parcurs coerent de majorare a ratelor de
dobândă.
Avansul din maxime în maxime al aurului în ultimele patru săptămâni a fost antrenat de declaraţii
ale unor oficiali ai băncilor centrale din statele industrializate potrivit cărora noi programe de
"quantitative easing" (tipărire nesustenabilă de monedă) urmează a fi rulate în viitorul apropiat.
După anticipările create de Rezerva Federală Americană şi intervenţiile în piaţa valutară a Băncii
Japoniei, a fost rândul unor reprezentanţi ai Băncii Angliei să facă declaraţii în acest sens.
"Războiul devalorizării monedelor" pare a fi fost principalul combustibil care a alimentat piaţa
aurului.
Peter Schiff, preşedinte la Euro Pacific Capital, este convins că atingerea unor noi maxime pe aur
şi argint precum şi aprecierea altor mărfuri se datorează în primul rând proiectelor inflaţioniste ale
Rezervei Federale Americane. Astfel, dacă până acum Fed avea ca principal obiectiv "stabilitatea
preţurilor" acesta pare a fi fost schimbat, iar oficialii instituţiei văd o problemă tocmai în
stabilitatea preţurilor şi spun că misiunea lor este aceea de a crea inflaţie. "Fed are o istorie
întreagă de eşecuri, dar de data aceasta cred că vor reuşi şi vor crea inflaţie", a spus Schiff, într-o
intervenţie la CNBC, completând că tot mai mulţi investitori vor merge către aur văzând că banca
centrală a SUA "îi jefuieşte".
O explicaţie similară este avansată şi de către Daryl Jones, Managing Director la Hedgeye Risk
Management, care argumentează că, în afară de deflaţia la nivelul preţurilor caselor din SUA,
inflaţia va cuprinde aproape toate zonele economiei, fiind alimentată de băncile centrale. "Trade-
ul pe aur eu îl numesc trade-ul fricii de guverne", a declarat Jones.

Mai sunt aşteptaţi şi alţi cumpărători

Dincolo de achiziţiile din pieţele mari, creşterea aurului din această toamnă este antrenată şi de
existenţa unei cereri la nivelul economiei reale. Frank Holmes, CEO la US Global Investors,
aminteşte că aurul este sezonier şi urmează cinci-şase luni în care acesta are căutare dat fiind că în
acest interval avem comasate sezonul nunţilor din India, Crăciunul şi Anul Nou chinezesc,
sărbători în care aurul este solicitat pentru cadouri. Holmes susţine că şi contextul general
favorizează aprecierea metalului galben: "Lumea judecă aurul în funcţie de dolar. Dolarul a fost
supravândut în ultimii ani, dar aurul încă nu se află în supracumpărare."
Francisco Blanch, Head of Global Commodities Research la Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Global Research, crede că aurul are potenţial să mai urce tocmai pentru că în piaţă ar putea veni
noi cumpărători. El se gândeşte în primul rând la băncile centrale din ţările în curs de dezvoltare
care au un nivel subdimensionat de aur în cadrul rezervelor internaţionale: "A fost un anunţ din
partea băncii centrale din Bangladesh, dar ar putea urma şi bănci mai mari precum cele din
Brazilia sau Coreea."
Nu numai băncile centrale ar avea de cumpărat aur, dar şi investitorii. Peter Schiff susţine că
speculatorii "încă nu au venit la petrecere". Marc Gugerli, fund manager la Gold2000, spune că
proporţia aurului în raport cu alte active financiare din portofolii este foarte redusă. Astfel, la
începutul anilor '20 aurul reprezenta 25% din totalul activelor financiare, în 1929 la începutul
crizei financiare se cifra la 17%, iar la începutul anilor '80 se situa cu puţin peste 20%. Media a
fost în general în jur de 20%, însă în 2008 aurul echivala cu doar 2% din portofoliile investitorilor.
"Deşi se vorbeşte de bubble în aur, puţini sunt cei care chiar au aur", zice Gugerli, care vede o
piaţă bull în aur pentru ani buni, cu un vârf de 10.000 USD/uncie într-un moment în care oamenii
vor dori să deţină aurul fizic şi nu doar pe hârtie.
O opinie contrară a expus Tres Knippa, trader la Chicago Mercantile Exchange şi proprietar al
Lotus Brokerage Services: "Cred că povestea aurului s-a terminat şi a obosit şi mai cred că aurul
se află în posesia oamenilor care nu trebuie." Dacă aurul va începe să scadă, aceştia vor spune că
este bine şi vor mai cumpăra. Dacă însă preţul va coborî sub 1.000 USD/uncie, vor deveni nervoşi
şi vor începe să vândă dezordonat, determinând o depreciere şi mai mare a cotaţiei. "Cred că cei
care doreau să deţină aur deja îl au inclus în portofolii. Cel mai bine e ca pe aceste niveluri să
vândă, rezumând că a fost un trade reuşit", a declarat Knippa pentru CNBC.

Cât de atractiv este aurul pe actualul nivel de preţ?

Peter Schiff crede însă că aurul trebuie păstrat în portofolii, fiind încă ieftin raportat la banii creaţi
şi cei care urmează să fie creaţi: "Încă nu aţi văzut nimic!", a exclamat şeful de la Euro Pacific,
amintind că se vorbea despre bubble în aur şi în 2006 când acesta era cotat la 600 USD/uncie. El a
mai precizat că aurul reprezintă 50% din portofoliul său: "Tot ce încerc să fac este să mă apăr de
Rezerva Federală care încearcă să îmi fure averea."
Website-ul Market Ticker apreciază însă ca o exagerare aprecierea aurului din ultimele două luni,
care arată "groaznic parabolic". Curba ascendentă se accelerează fără a lăsa loc măcar unor
corecţii intermediare. Este o mişcare tipică pieţelor antrenate de mania investiţională, scrie Karl
Denninger, fondatorul şi administratorul site-ului. El admite că nu ştie unde se va opri creşterea
aurului, ca în cazul oricăror manii. Preţul este în maxime istorice şi nu există nicio rezistenţă care
să se interpună cumpărătorilor. În plus, orice element de analiză tehnică este inutil, ca în orice
exagerare de final de trend. O astfel de escaladare din maxime în maxime pe aur nu am mai avut
decât la sfârşitul anilor '70 şi începutul anilor '80, când se credea că un nou război mondial va fi
antrenat de criza ostaticilor din ambasada SUA din Teheran, iar inflaţia ridicată lăsa loc
imaginaţiei pentru un scenariu cu o hiperinflaţie de genul celei din Germania Republicii de la
Weimar. Market Ticker contestă rolul aurului ca mijloc efectiv de protecţie contra inflaţiei şi
conchide că raportul risc/recompensă pe actualele paliere de preţ este dezastruos.
Invitat la CNBC, Aaron Regent, preşedintele şi CEO-ul de la Barrick Gold, corporaţie cu peste 25
de mine de aur în lume, a refuzat să răspundă dacă nivelul actual de preţ pentru aur este "fair":
"Cred că pentru noi ca business preţul este foarte bun." El crede că trendul se poate întoarce doar
ca urmare a trei factori: o scădere a cererii pe piaţa chineză, o întărire a dolarului sau un plan al
băncilor centrale de retragere a lichidităţii injectate în sistem în anii de criză. Francisco Blanch
apreciază, de asemenea, că mutarea se află în curtea băncilor centrale. Aurul are neajunsul
fundamental de a nu genera venituri, însă acest lucru nu reprezintă o problemă în momentul de
faţă, când monedele importante (dolar, yen, euro) nu aduc niciun yield. Dacă însă băncile centrale
vor opera majorări semnificative ale ratelor de dobândă, acest proces ar fi un catalizator care să
ducă la inversarea tendinţei, iar aurul poate scădea foarte uşor, a mai afirmat Blanch.

http://www.curierulnational.ro/Piata%20bursiera/2010-10-18/Unde+se+opreste+goana+dupa+aur
%3F

Ani in sir a existat tendinta de a se renunta la aur, mai ales dupa ce i-a fost scazut rolul de
referinta pentru monedele nationale. Valutele s-au dovedit insa extrem de volatile, iar teama
de o prabusire a acestora a readus aurul in atentie. Romania este printre tarile lumii cu o
rezerva importanta de aur. La sfarsitul lunii februarie 2010, aceasta era de 103,7 tone,
cantitate care se mentine neschimbata de mai mult timp. Se schimba insa valoarea, in functie
de cotatiile de pe piata mondiala. Astfel, in prezent, valoarea rezervei de aur a Romaniei este
apreciata la 2,72 miliarde de euro.

Cu toate acestea, rezerva  de aur a Romaniei nu reprezinta nici zece la suta din totalul
rezervelor valutare detinute de tara noastra. Acestea se ridica la 32,46 miliarde euro (29,74
miliarde euro in valuta si 2,72 miliarde euro in aur). Cresterea este semnificativa fata de
ianuarie. Intrarile de valuta au fost de trei miliarde de euro, iar iesirile au fost de 1,3 miliarde
de euro. Un aport deosebit la cresterea rezervelor l-a avut intrarea sumei de 2,3 miliarde de
euro, ceea ce reprezinta transele a treia si a patra aferente acordului stand-by convenit cu
Fondul Monetar International.

Cu cantitatea de aur detinuta, Romania se plaseaza pe locul 31 in lume, inaintea unor tari cum
ar fi Polonia, Australia, Danemarca, Bulgaria, Brazilia, Canada, Serbia sau Ungaria.
Rezervele de aur din lume se ridica la 30 190 de tone. Cu cele 103,7 tone ale sale, Romania
detine 0,34% din total. Tara noastra este cel mai bine plasata in intrte statele din Europa
Centrala si de Est. Foarte aproape este Polonia, cu 102,9 tone de aur. Urmatoarea in zona este
Slovacia, care detine 31,8 tone. Cel mai mult aur este detinut de Statele Unite ale Americii,
adica 8 133,5 tone, reprezentand aproape 30% din rezervele de pe glob. Pozitia a doua, la
mare distanta, este ocupata de Germania. Motorul Uniunii Europene detine 3 406,8 tone de
aur. Aproape se afla chiar Fondul Monetar International, in seifurile institutiei mondiale diind
depozitate acum 3005,3 tone de metal pretios. Interesant ca Elvetia este abia pe locul al
saptelea in lume, avand in visterie1 040 tone, iar Marea Britanie, fosta mare putere coloniala,
se plaseaza pe locul 16, reusind sa adune abia 310,3 tone de aur! Mai mult are chiar si Banca
Centrala Europeana, adica 501,4 tone.

Rezerva Fondului Monetar International se va diminua cu 403 tone de aur. Acesta va fi

vandut statelor interesate, dar si pe piata materiilor prime. Cu banii obtinuti, FMI acorda
imprumuturi tarilor mai sarace si celor afectate puternic de criza economica. Clienti sunt
suficienti, deoarece China, India si Rusia doresc sa cumpere din greu. Aceste state urmaresc
ca, prin cumpararea de aur, sa-si reduca si dependenta de dolar.

http://www.agenda.ro/news/news/29032/cine-detine-cel-mai-mult-aur-in-lume.html

 Criza financiară, intrată într-o fază deosebit de acută, a schimbat radical peisajul bancar internaţional
în ultimele săptămâni. Aurul s-a transformat, aproape peste noapte, dintr-o "relicvă barbară", în
ultimul refugiu pentru păstrarea puterii de cumpărare. Chiar şi pentru băncile centrale!
     Financial Times a scris, zilele trecute, despre suspendarea "temporară" a comercializării
monedelor de o uncie American Buffalo, destinate investitorilor individuali. Stocurile s-au epuizat ca
urmare a cumpărărilor masive de pe piaţa americană, declanşate de instabilitatea financiară şi teama
de inflaţie. Articolul din FT arată că Monetăria SUA a vândut peste 400 de mii de astfel de monede de
la începutul anului, cu peste 54% mai mult decât în perioada corespunzătoare a anului trecut. În
august, Monetăria SUA a suspendat vânzarea unei alte monede populare, American Eagle, din cauza
"cererii fără precedent", după cum scrie FT.
     În ediţia electronică de duminică, cotidianul financiar britanic scrie că şi băncile centrale şi-au
redus vânzările de aur, până la cel mai scăzut nivel din ultimii 10 ani. Acordul de la Washington, din
1999, permite băncilor centrale europene să vândă maximum 500 de tone pe an, dar această limită
nu a fost atinsă nici anul trecut.
     Vânzarea graduală a aurului din rezervele naţionale a permis menţinerea sub control a preţului, în
condiţiile adâncirii crizei financiare. Financial Times arată că băncile naţionale se află, în prezent, într-
un proces de reconsiderare a poziţiilor faţă de rolul aurului în cadrul rezervelor valutare.
     Presa financiară internaţională a prezentat, încă de la începutul anului, schimbarea radicală a
atitudinii băncilor centrale din Rusia şi China faţă de aur. După ce fostul preşedinte Vladimir Putin a
fost fotografiat anul trecut "cântărind" un lingou de aur, actualul preşedinte a făcut acelaşi lucru, în
cadrul unei conferinţe cu producătorii. Dmitri Medvedev i-a criticat pentru productivitatea scăzută şi
lipsa de cooperare cu guvernul, conform site-ului Russia Today. Este îngrijorat preşedintele că rezerva
valutară a Rusiei nu poate cumpăra suficient aur?
     Menţinerea preţului aurului la un nivel scăzut a fost absolut necesară, din cauza rolului său de
barometru inflaţionist. Astfel, băncile centrale au reuşit să reducă dobânzile de intervenţie la
începutul deceniului fără a declanşa imediat şi o spirală a preţurilor. Organizaţia neguvernamentală
GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) arată, de cel puţin 10 ani, că piaţa aurului este manipulată
de băncile centrale în acest scop.
     Pe lângă vânzarea directă pe piaţă, băncile centrale au şi împrumutat aurul din rezervă marilor
bănci internaţionale, în scopul "activării" acestuia, deoarece metalul preţios era considerat "inert".
Între timp şi obligaţiunile de trezorerie americane au devenit inerte din punct de vedere investiţional.
Bloomberg a scris ieri că randamentele acestora au coborât până la un nivel întâlnit ultima dată în
timpul administraţiei Roosevelt (!!!). Întrega curbă a randamentelor pentru obligaţiunile
guvernamentale americane a coborât sub rata inflaţiei, iar agenţia Bloomberg arată că fondurile
investite în aceste instrumente sunt "bani morţi".
     În condiţiile în care până şi investiţiile în obligaţiuni guvernamentale americane nu mai sunt
justificate, motivaţia plasării aurului în scopul activării sale a dispărut. Deoarece aurul este singurul
activ financiar fără un element de pasiv corespunzător, siguranţa rezervelor naţionale de aur este
primordială.
     Dar aurul nostru pe unde mai este şi cât de sigură este revenirea acestuia în ţară? Cel puţin de la
începutul deceniului, BNR a plasat o cotă importantă a aurului din rezerva valutară la diferite bănci
străine, în scopul valorificării. Rezerva valutară a României include şi o cotă importantă de active
denominate în dolari (n.a. obligaţiuni guvernamentale americane şi obligaţiuni emise de agenţiile
guvernamentale americane), care se confruntă cu un risc semnificativ de scădere a valorii, pe fondul
unei percepii tot mai acute a riscului pe pieţele internaţionale.
     Raportul anual din 2007 arată că 59,15% din rezerva de aur este plasată într-un singur depozit
extern, pentru care BNR primeşte dobânda în dolari. De ce ar fi interesată o bancă străină, fie ea
chiar şi naţională, să plătească dobândă pentru un activ "inert", pe lângă celelalte cheltuieli de
stocare? Pentru că banca străină nu îl stochează, ci îl dă cu împrumut în cadrul unei operaţiuni de tip
carry trade.
     Condiţiile actuale de pe pieţele financiare internaţionale ridică serioase semne de întrebare
privind siguranţa aurului nostru. Care sunt garanţiile de returnare? Are contractul şi clauze care
permit returnarea unei sume echivalente în valută "forte", în locul aurului?
     Randamentele infime, comparate cu riscurile menţinerii celei mai mari părţi din aurul naţional în
afara graniţelor, nu mai justifică aceste plasamente, iar Banca Naţională a României ar trebui să
adopte măsuri urgente pentru repatrierea aurului. 

http://www.bursa.ro/s=banci_asigurari&articol=34334&editie_precedenta=2008-09-30.html

The Role of Gold in Modern Society

Gold mining's value to developing countries

Gold mining is vital to the fragile economies of many impoverished countries, which account
for roughly two-thirds of global gold production. In addition to generating export revenue in
these countries, gold production provides royalty and tax income to their governments,
technology transfer, worker training and the creation of a skilled workforce. Gold mining can
also bring substantial improvements in physical, social, legal and financial infrastructure. In
many of these countries, gold mining is a foundation industry that often provides the critical
mass for the development of electricity, water, road and rail transport in a region, that are the
essential foundations of an economy.
Developing countries accounted for 72% of global output in 2004. Most of this came from
low-income or lower-middle-income countries that together accounted for two thirds of global
output.

The strongest rise in output has been seen in Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs), whose
gold production rose by 84% between 1994 and 2004. Of the 38 HIPC countries, 14 are
significant gold producers with lesser or minor production in at least another 14 countries.
There is potential for substantial additional production in several other countries.

The rise in HIPCs' output has been paralleled by rising export dependence on gold. In 2003,
gold accounted for 13% of goods (merchandise) exports of the 14 significant producers and
10% of their exports of goods and services. For HIPCs as a group, gold accounted for nearly
8% of goods exports and over 6% of exports of goods and services. It is one of the most
important exports for HIPCs.

Gold is the leading export for Mali (59% of goods exports in 2003), Tanzania (44%), Ghana
(32%), Guyana (26%) and the second most important for Guinea (23%). A $10 fall in the gold
price would cause a loss of around $75m in HIPCs' export income.

For the 27 HIPC countries that have reached decision or completion point (those that receive
at least some debt relief under the HIPC initiative), gold exports in 2003 amounted to 87% of
debt service payments.

Gold is equally important to other low-income countries that are not HIPCs. Among those
considered by the World Bank to be severely or moderately indebted, gold is the leading
export for Kyrgyzstan (around 45% of total goods exports in 2003) and Papua New Guinea
(36%), the second most important export for Mongolia (20%) and Zimbabwe (11%) and one
of the two leading exports for Uzbekistan. Among lower-middle-income countries, gold is the
leading export for both South Africa (13% of goods exports in 2003) and Peru (17%).

Gold mining companies source supplies locally where possible and employ local labor where
possible. Thus, even allowing for some necessary imports and for the remittance of profits
and dividends, their impact on a developing country's balance of payments is strongly
positive. Gold mining, and metals mining generally, is essentially free of the distorting
subsidies applied by some developed countries to agricultural production.

Export revenue is not the only benefit gold mining brings to a developing country. It provides
royalty and tax income to governments, technology transfer, skilled employment and training
for local populations, together with further jobs through the multiplier effect. In one or two
cases it has provided the foundation for a significant jewelry manufacturing industry.

Gold mining can also bring substantial improvements in physical, social, legal and financial
infrastructure. The establishment of a formal mining industry can be the first step in a
country's industrial development. Mining is a foundation industry that often provides the
critical mass for the development of electricity, water, road and rail transport in a region. This
characteristic of the industry is particularly important in Africa where lack of infrastructure
has been identified as one of the major hindrances to economic development.

Gold is often thought of as synonymous with wealth. Yet gold coins, bars and high-carat
jewelry play a crucial role as a means of saving and defense against misfortune to many of the
poor of the world. Similarly gold mining brings benefits to poorer nations. It will continue to
have a role to play in fostering economic development.

Gold's value to consumers and investors in developing countries

In much of Asia, the Middle East, and the Indian subcontinent, gold is the best possible
protection against upheaval, both political and economic. For men and women throughout the
developing world, gold is still one of the most liquid and widely accepted forms of exchange,
quite simply the most efficient store of value they possess. Around two thirds of the jewelry
purchased in the Middle East and Asia is used as a means of saving in addition to its function
as an adornment. The use of jewelry as savings is often important in rural areas where access
to a reliable and appropriate banking system is difficult or impossible. Gold also offers
protection against a weak currency or high domestic inflation levels, which are prevalent and
persistent problems in the developing world.

Around two thirds of all jewelry manufacture takes place in the developing world and the
proportion is rising. Countries such as Turkey, India, China and Thailand have all seen their
exports to developed countries rise in the last few years, generating export earnings and
employment. Gold jewelry sales to tourists are also important for Turkey, Egypt and Dubai.

While inflation has essentially been non-existent until recently in most developed countries, in
many developing countries, inflation and the attendant currency depreciation have been
rampant, causing hardship to millions, if not billions, of people. The US dollar price of gold
did not perform well for 20 years from 1980 to 2000, but gold was an excellent investment in
terms of for, example, the Indian rupee, the Turkish lire, or the Vietnamese dong. Where men
and women do not have easy access to liquid markets in company stock or government bonds,
to US dollar bank accounts, or even any bank account at all, gold has proved over and over
again to be the most valuable financial asset to own.

For example, in Vietnam, gold plays an important role in the purchase of a home. Buying a
home in Vietnam takes time, as is the case in most countries. From the moment a buyer and
seller agree on a price to the day the paperwork and sale are completed takes a month or
longer. During this time, the value of the Vietnamese currency may have fallen sharply, as the
current rate of currency depreciation in that country is very rapid. Accordingly, the buyer will
arrange financing with a bank not in terms of the Vietnamese dong, but in gold, which holds
its value in terms of purchasing power. This arrangement means the buyer will still have
enough to pay the agreed price when the sale is consummated.

Gold's value to women living in developing countries

In the Middle East and the Indian sub-continent gold plays an important role in the financial
security of women. Historically, jewelry was often the only asset a Muslim or Hindu woman
could own in practice, and in more traditional families this is still very much the case,
especially in rural areas. A woman's gold can therefore be her only protection against personal
misfortune. Hence, the practice of giving an Indian bride gold, which is considered Streedhan,
or "property of the woman".

India is the world's largest market for gold jewelry, accounting in 2004 for one fifth of the
global total.
Gold's important role in society's long-standing customs

Gifts of gold make a vital contribution as tokens of love and precious souvenirs on those
emotional occasions that bring people together - weddings, anniversaries, birthdays,
Christmas and other religious holidays, graduations, Mother's Day, birthdays, religious
ceremonies such as baptisms, and many more.

Gold's function as an adornment, as jewelry, has been in existence for over 6,000 years. The
earliest gold jewelry dates from the Sumerian civilization that flourished in the fertile basin
between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers around 4,000 BC.

Why is gold so coveted? Since the beginning of time, the intrinsic beauty, warmth, sensuality
and spiritual richness of gold has earned it pride of place as the favorite metal of jewelers.
Gold has inspired craftsmen to create objects of desire that unite us with our emotions. In the
Middle Ages, alchemists attempted to use their magic to make gold from other metals. They
believed that gold was a source of immortality, and so it was used in medicines designed to
fight old age and prolong life.

Today, consumer demand for gold jewelry is growing by over 20% per annum, demonstrating
the confidence that women around the world have in gold. This level of demand far outstrips
the supply for gold that mines can produce.

Gold as a preserver of value (inflation hedge, safe haven, etc.)

Gold is an effective hedge against inflation. In addition, gold is inversely correlated to the US
dollar, making it a good currency hedge. As an asset class, gold has all the advantages of
being universally regarded as a currency, without what are all too often the disadvantages of
being subject to the economic and monetary policies of one particular country's government.

Gold's value as an effective portfolio diversifier

Gold is a highly effective portfolio diversifier due to its low to negative correlation with all
major asset classes. Over the last 20 years, gold has shown no statistically significant
correlation with equities. That applies not just to domestic US equities, but also to
international equities, including those traded in London, Tokyo, Frankfurt, and so on.

Gold has also shown no statistically significant correlation with other mainstream asset
classes, such as US Government bonds, Treasury Bills, and equity real estate investment
trusts. The fundamental reason for this lack of correlation is that the factors driving the gold
price are not the same as the factors that determine the returns on other assets. Obviously,
there are some economic factors that influence the performance of all investments. But
equally obviously, changes in gold supply and demand have no influence over the other asset
classes.

As a rule, gold shows no statistically significant correlations with mainstream asset classes.
However, there is evidence that when equities are under stress, in other words when shares are
falling rapidly in value, an inverse correlation can develop between gold and equities. And
this aspect of gold's behavior runs directly counter to the way other asset classes perform in
stress situations.
Gold's value as a currency reserve

Gold is still considered an important reserve asset by most central banks, even though it is no
longer the center of the international financial system. The most important reason is that gold
is the only reserve asset that is no one's liability. This means that, unlike a currency, the value
of gold cannot be affected by the economic policies of the issuing country or undermined by
inflation in that country.

Gold has a track record of holding its real value over the centuries. Since gold is no-one's
liability, it can not be repudiated and holding it is a safeguard against potential unforeseen
crises. Gold also brings much needed diversity to a central bank portfolio due to its low
correlation with key currencies and its strong inverse correlation with the US dollar. The
central bank of Argentina, for example, when diversifying a portion of its reserves away from
100% reliance on the US dollar in 2004, included gold in its purchases.

Gold accounts for 9% of reserves held by central banks (valued at market prices).

Gold's value in industrial applications

Gold ranks among the most high-tech of metals, performing vital functions in many areas of
everyday life. Gold's unique properties make it useful in medical applications, pollution
control, air bags, mobile telephones, laptop computers, space travel, and many other things we
consider indispensable to our modern lives. Approximately 12% of demand for gold comes
from industry.

Medical Applications

Because it is "biocompatible", gold plays an important role in medical implants. For example,
gold-coated "stents" are inserted into clogged arteries to clear the flow of blood. Also,
because gold is opaque to x-rays, surgeons are able to place a stent with the utmost precision,
which helps ensure optimal effectiveness. Other medical implants that contain gold are pace
makers and insulin pumps. Gold is used in these devices because of its high level of reliability
in micro electronics.

Gold possesses a high degree of resistance to bacterial colonization, and because of this it is
the material of choice for implants that are at risk of infection, such as the inner ear. Gold has
a long tradition of use in this application and is considered a very valuable metal in
microsurgery of the ear.

Gold is being used increasingly in pharmaceutical applications. Gold is ideal for delivering
biologically active materials directly into the target tissues in the human body, without
damaging the tissues themselves, or altering the biological activity of the material being
delivered. Gold helps doctors to deliver precise doses of powerful drugs to the parts of the
body where they are required. This is important in the treatment of a range of diseases,
including cancer and HIV, the virus that causes AIDS.

On the molecular level, gold has applications through its organic and chemical compounds
used in medical science: for instance, anti-cancer drugs. Or in what doctors have started to
describe as a "pharmacy on a chip" - a tiny covering of gold is used to encase micro doses of
drugs on an electronic chip that is implanted in the body. When the chip is electronically
activated to dissolve the tiny casing of gold, an appropriate dose of drug is released.

In a similar way, gold is the preferred material for a branch of medical research the scientists
call "biolistics", because it is a marriage of biology and ballistics. Strands of DNA are blended
with microscopic gold powder and injected into the skin in search of targeted cells, so that the
researchers can observe the reaction. In this application, three of gold's attributes are crucial:
first, its non-reactiveness. Second, the fact that it is opaque means it can be precisely located,
just as with the stents. And finally, the fact that gold is dense - it has a high ratio of mass or
weight to volume - means the compound can achieve the high speed required to penetrate the
targeted cell.

Environmental Applications

Recently, it has been discovered that gold nanoparticles, measuring only 25 nanometres
across, can split oxygen atoms, thereby facilitating oxidation reactions, which create useful
organic products as oxygen atoms and carbon compounds combine. New research published
in the top scientific journal Nature has revealed that gold catalysts can clean up an important
chemical process that is used every day to produce tons of pharmaceuticals, detergents & food
additives.

As a chemical catalyst, gold is playing an important role in new environmental applications,

such as pollution control (mercury emissions) and fuel cells. By way of example, the Institute
for Green Technology in Tokyo has 30 scientists working on gold catalysts for
environmentally sensitive, or "green", technology applications.

To give you an idea of the importance of catalysis, it has been estimated that about one trillion
dollars of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States is derived from processes that use
some form of industrial catalysis.

In recent years, catalysts using gold have become a very hot topic of research. There have
been breakthroughs in research studies that have shown gold to be an excellent catalyst in a
number of important chemical reactions. Some of the potential applications include:

 Pollution control in diesel-powered vehicles, and in the environment;

 Clean energy generation, by means of fuel cells;
 Sensors, for detecting gases in industrial processes;
 And as catalysts for chemical and petrochemical processes. Gold may lead to new routes for
the manufacture of many vital chemicals.

Other Applications

The standard touch-tone telephone would not function without the 33 contacts made from
gold it contains. Air bag systems fitted in more than 30 million cars around the world rely on
gold-coated electrical contacts. And every time you touch a key on your computer it strikes a
gold circuit that relays your command to the computer's microprocessor.

Gold is one of the most effective conductors of electricity known to man, and its reliability
compared with other metals such as palladium or copper is increased by the fact that gold is
also an excellent conductor of heat. Gold is also inert and, therefore, does not react when it
comes into contact with other substances. In addition, Gold does not corrode or tarnish, so it is
much more reliable than other metals in electronic applications.

http://www.responsiblegold.org/role_of_gold.asp

London, November 2010

The World Gold Council (WGC) today published a research paper entitled “India: Heart of
Gold”, which addresses recent developments in the market, in the context of the revival of
Indian demand for gold in 2010. The report is the first in a new series on the Indian gold
market, with the second scheduled for publication in 2011, which will analyse the strategic
outlook for Indian gold demand over the next several decades.

Eily Ong, Investment Research Manager at the World Gold Council, said: “India is the largest
gold market in the world and, as such, the likely recovery of local gold demand to pre-crisis
levels is of considerable strategic importance to the wider gold market.

“Gold is an integral part of Indian society and a foundation of wealth and savings in India. As
consumers have adjusted their price expectations upwards, a further rise in gold jewellery and
investment demand is anticipated and this trend is projected to continue over the long-run as
local investors are buying gold driven by wealth accumulation motives.”

Key statistics from the first report in the series include the following: In 2009, total Indian
gold demand reached US$19 billion, or Rs974 billion, which accounts for 15% of the global
gold market.

Over the past ten years, the value of gold demand in India has increased at an average rate of
13% per year, outpacing the country’s real GDP, inflation and population growth by 6%, 8%
and 12% respectively.

The country currently has one of the highest saving rates in the world, estimated at around
30% of total income, of which 10% is already invested in gold.

Based on WGC estimates, the nation owns over 18,000 tonnes of above ground gold stocks
worth approximately US$800 billion at today’s gold price and representing at least 11% of
global stock.

This is equivalent to nearly half an ounce of gold ownership per capita, a figure which is
significantly below consumption in western markets, representing scope for additional future
growth.

Ends --

http://www.commodities-now.com/news/metals-and-mining/4101-gold-wgc-highlights-
fundamental-role-of-india.html

The World Gold Council is an association of the world’s most prominent gold producers who
are highly dedicated and determined in the endorsement of gold.
The World Gold Council is however a non-profit alliance affiliated with the world’s chief
gold process that has been created to promote the popularity and use of gold. It has its
headquarters in Geneva where the Council was formed by a network of offices, which are
basically representatives of the major centres that meet up with the demand of gold all across
the globe. Moreover, it has promotional activities that cover the markets representing around
three quarter of the world’s yearly expenditure of gold.

The nature of the World Gold Council’s work is very much closely related in partnership with
the local gold trade and gold industry. It happens to vary as per the diverse requirements and
stages of developments and progression that the countries might be undergoing. Also, this has
close relevance to the forms of gold that are consumed like jewellery, bars, coins, dentistry in
what ever structure gold is largely sold or consumed.

Furthermore, the Council’s programme and the talented team of staff assist in modifying gold
products and supervising its distribution process. It provides with expert and professional gold
information and the economic services to bulky proprietors of gold. The foremost focus and
concern over the past few years has been on smoothing the progress of the elimination of
structural hindrances to the free surge of gold and hence, it is quite supportive in its well-
known attainment and maintenance.

The World Gold Council manages regional and global market research studies, and broadcasts
information on expansion in gold stipulation and other gold related issues. The mission of
World Gold Council is to motivate and maintain the demand for gold and also establish the
endurance value for the gold stakeholders.

The world’s principal gold mining companies are providing the World Gold Council with
supporting funds. For people who are interested in information regarding the gold markets
they can visit their website- www.gold.org.

The Gold Bulletin journal has been printed for around 40 years by the World Gold Council.
The Gold Bulletin is the only journal that focuses on science, technology and industrial
applications for gold to augment its development. Core information regarding gold is
provided by this research based programme to all the nationwide and international investors.
It also includes the printing of wide-ranging research papers. These research papers are
acknowledged by various academics and in-house experts that have the true knowledge of
gold’s features as an investment, its value, inflation and currency evade. These research
papers also contain all the relevant information of the demand and supply of gold based on the
market trend.

To sum up, the World Gold Council is an international and non-profitable association that has
its headquarters based in Geneva, London. It has its regional offices in India, China, Japan,
Middle East, Turkey and North America.

http://www.eddyarticles.com/business-articles/what-is-the-world-gold-council/
World Gold council sees greater role for gold in tax saving
instruments
India Infoline News Service / 16:35 , Feb 01, 2010

In light of the current global economic scenario, World Gold Council has
seen a renewed interest in investing in gold worldwide.
As Indian citizens continue to search for ways to preserve their wealth, a re-think on the
taxes and levies currently preventing investment in gold from expanding further is required, a
World Gold Council official stated at a recent industry conference.

In light of the current global economic scenario, World Gold Council has seen a renewed
interest in investing in gold worldwide. In India too, the underlying appetite to invest in gold
to protect wealth shows signs of increasing.  The Reserve Bank of India itself has recently
purchased 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF.  However, in India, subsequent to the 1992
reforms, there have been no major moves to further liberalise the gold investment market. 

World Gold Council believes that there needs to be a change to the regulatory definition of
gold in India. While gold has been increasingly viewed as an investment asset in
international markets, in India the yellow metal is still being treated as a commodity. 

Furthermore, if gold is to be treated as an investment option, its role for income tax benefits,
especially for working women and the ‘bottom of the pyramid’ segment, must be clarified.

Speaking at a panel discussion titled “Growth of the Indian Gold Industry” organised by the
Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry earlier this month, Ajay Mitra,
Managing Director, Indian Sub-Continent, World Gold Council said:

“There are a number of ways of accessing the investment benefits of gold and it is time that
the Indian government started considering it for the provision of income tax benefits, at least
for working women and for the bottom level in the income tax brackets.  Gold should play a
more significant role in the sustainable growth of the Indian economy and WGC welcomes
the increasing pressure on Government to enable this”

Portfolios that contain even a small allocation of gold are proven to be generally more robust
and better able to cope with market uncertainties than those that do not.  Research conducted
by the World Gold Council highlights a need for the Pension & Insurance Corpus to diversify
its investment assets to create greater stability in the portfolio.

 “There needs to be a re-think on regulatory issues, taxes and levies that currently prevent
investment in gold from expanding further and offering Indian citizens access to much
needed ways of protecting their wealth” opines Ajay Mitra.  
http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/News/World-Gold-council-sees-greater-role-for-gold-in-tax-
saving-instruments/4764734590
Forbes: Restoring gold's role in currency markets should be at the top of the
G-20's agenda
November 11, 2010

"The scramble is on to find a permanent replacement for the dollar,"

columnist says

It's time to reform the international monetary system, and gold should play a central role, writes
Charles W. Kadlec, a member of the Economic Advisory Board of the American Principles Project, in a
Forbes article:

"With the world's monetary system tethered to the dollar, this mix of U.S. policies led to the great,
global inflation of the 1970s. No wonder the scramble is on to find a permanent replacement for the
dollar.

"The surprising answer may turn out to be a gold standard designed to reflect the realities of a 21st-
century global economy. ...

"[World Bank President Robert] Zoellick's proposal [to revive a gold standard] should be considered
for several reasons.

"First, the leading alternatives to gold would represent a grand new experiment in operating the
international monetary system, introducing yet more uncertainty into a developed world struggling
to recover from financial crisis, and a developing world attempting to cope with an unstable dollar
and hot money flows.

"No single currency has the credibility or liquidity to displace the dollar. The sovereign debt crisis
among E.U. countries limits the euro's role, while lack of infrastructure and liquidity--and political
risks--rule out the renminbi. And the central banks of Britain and Japan have not shown themselves
to be particularly skillful in providing a stable currency within their own economies. ...

"During the Bretton Woods era of the 1950s and 1960s, the dollar was a reliable means of exchange.
It delivered stable prices, facilitated the post World War II economic 'miracles' of Western Europe
and Japan, and helped a 20-year period of 4% growth in the U.S. The different results between that
era, in which the dollar was linked to gold, and the growing uncertainty and instability of the past 40
years, show it was gold, not the dollar, that provided the vital ingredient for a growing world
economy, price stability and modest trade imbalances. Restoring gold's role as the key reference
point therefore should be at the top of the G-20's agenda for reforming the international monetary
system."

http://www.blanchardonline.com/investing-news-blog/econ.php?article=1412

Gold Role Reversal: Central Banks Now Net Gold Buyers

By Addison Wiggin
03/19/10 Baltimore, Maryland – The world is turning upside down when central bankers are
accumulating gold and ordinary people are not.

Last year, central banks were net buyers of gold for the first time since 1988. In fact, they
bought the most gold in any year since 1964. Total central bank holdings worldwide,
according to the World Gold Council, grew by 425 metric tons last year.

True, that’s only 1.4% of the gold central banks already held. But it’s the trend that matters:
China, India, and Russia all added to their reserves last year. And it fits into a bigger picture –
growing distrust of the world’s reserve currency.

“I think we already have a gold standard…created by the marketplace,” says the inimitable
Marc Faber. Not just the central banks, either: “We have the [exchange-traded funds] that
have proliferated, and we have more and more physical buying of gold.”

At least there’s more physical buying when it comes to the ultra-wealthy who can buy huge
bars of the stuff. Retail investors who buy coins? Not so much.

Sales of the popular Austrian Philharmonic gold coins have crashed 80% compared with a
year ago. The numbers aren’t as dramatic in the United States, but still, sales of Gold Eagles
in February fell 26% from year-ago figures.

“There’s no more upward surge in gold price to titillate buyers,” explains the Austrian mint’s
veteran marketing director Kerry Tattersall. Plus, “a lot of people feel more relaxed about the
economic crisis.”

Then again, maybe most of the folks who have the means to buy gold have done so already…
and those who don’t are buying silver. Sales of US Silver Eagles in the first two months of
2010 are up 40% compared with the same period in 2009, according to CPM Group. Many
buyers are waiting up to three weeks for delivery.

Addison Wiggin
for The Daily Reckoning

http://dailyreckoning.com/gold-role-reversal-central-banks-now-net-gold-buyers/

Can the world go back to a Gold Standard?

Nope. Not in the West, nor anytime soon anywhere, and for three simple reasons.
First, Gold Prices aren't high enough. Second, modern governments don't hold enough of the stuff - not for their tastes, at
least. And third, the pace of physical monetization, out of jewelry and mined ore into coin and large-bar form, just isn't great
enough. Yet.

Gold Pricing & Value

Backing the world's broad-money supply with gold - even at the 40% cover-ratio set by the United States in the interwar
years - would require a price nearer to $4000 per ounce than $1400. That's with all the gold ever mined in history locked
inside central-bank vaults, by the way. Full cover for a reserves-backed "bullion standard" would need prices above $10,000
per ounce.

Nor against financial assets is gold priced highly enough to warrant becoming the world's sole monetary arbiter. Now valued
at $7.6 trillion, the near-170,000 tonnes of gold ever mined in history is worth only 3.9% of total investable wealth. That
figure compares with well over 20% before 1930 - a valuation which at current mining-production rates (and with constant
asset prices) would require a gold price of $6650 per ounce by 2015, or $6230 by 2020 on BullionVault's maths.

So, although recovering from what was, a decade ago, the weakest role it ever played in the world's financial system, gold
remains dwarfed by other, more widely-held and heavily-weighted assets - most obviously the US Dollar and Treasury
bonds.

Official-Sector Gold Holdings

As a proportion of the above-ground total (a cube now measuring some 20.65 meters along each edge), world governments
haven't held this little gold since 1911.

Yes, that period marked high tide for the classical gold-coin standard. But with the ebb came the Federal Reserve, the welfare
state, and "mixed-economy" planning - historical facts which have scarcely retreated, even as the nationalized gold stocks
they first confiscated fell back.
Demolishing these pillars of "soft money" in the next five or 10 years, let alone unwinding the centralized urge to control
price-levels, GDP growth and the free transfer of capital, looks less likely than even another quadrupling of gold prices.

Nor do the largest gold holders - those states nearest to a practical level of cover - show any enthusiasm for mobilizing their
gold hoards as part, never mind the base of their monetary systems. The No.1 official holder, the United States, last flirted
with talk of a return to gold in the early '80s. But back then, gold's private-investment weighting was six times greater than
today, and double-digit interest rates gave cash savers positive real returns on their money (post-inflation) for the first time in
a decade.

Such a "hard money" backdrop remains a long way off today, despite the fact that the US could actually back its currency in
circulation with a 40% cover-ratio at current prices ($1390 per ounce, in fact). Money is much more than just notes and coins
today, of course, and to cover M2 - meaning primarily household cash savings, held on deposit and in money-market
accounts - the Treasury's 8,133 tonnes of gold would need to be valued almost 10 times higher per ounce ($13,230). Absent
that kind of price, and given the deflation-fearing consensus amongst central bankers and the academics they listen to, it ain't
going to happen. We need devalued currency, not sound money, believe the people who could decide such a change.

Physical Monetization of Gold

This dim outlook for a dictated return to some level of "Gold Standard" in the rich West, however, won't prevent private
savers, nor emerging-economy states, from continuing to build their own gold reserves.

Demand for "monetary" gold (i.e. coin and bar) worldwide is now running at twice the pace of five years ago, eating perhaps
49% of 2010's total global-market supplies in the form of low-margin units for trading and storage, rather than as jewelry,
bonding wire, dental fillings, or flakes floating in schnapps. But is that pace enough? A little under a century ago, Joseph
Kitchen (he of the wonderfully-named 'Kitchen Cycle' in commodity prices) studied bullion flows and found that - in a world
where gold had been money, formally, for over 200 years - monetization of newly-mined gold was running well above 45%.
Jewelry recycling no doubt topped that level, while existing monetary units surely retained their form.

Furthermore, at present, a little over a third of the world's above-ground gold is currently held in coins or bars (as measured
by best estimates for investment plus central-bank stocks). But even at current rates of investment fabrication, it would take
15 years to raise that physically monetized level to 44%, the average proportion held by central banks between 1945 and
1971, the first (if not last) period when interventionist, welfare states in the West yoked their money supplies to gold.

So must gold play no role in money? Indexing a notional, government-only Bancor currency or Special Drawing Right
against a basket of, say, Dollars, Euros, Yuan and gold might seem wise, but it appeals to the same thinking which gave us
the United States' exorbitant privilege of Dollar issuance, plus that explosion of state intervention in all economic activity
which we're still very much living with today. Whereas, in time, the sheer weight of privately-held gold reserves may in fact
tip us back towards the origins of the classical Gold Standard. Because that historical "accident" (as gold-market historian
Timothy Green calls it in his Ages of Gold) developed out of freely-decided convention - not central-bank diktat or academic
theorists sitting in Princeton, Berkeley or on Southwark Bridge - with private actors trading goods and settling debts with
transfers of bullion.
Even in 1900, private holdings of Gold Coins still exceeded central-bank hoards worldwide, only losing ground as Europe's
second thirty-year war drew near and nation states began hoarding for war, vaulting for victory. It wasn't until Great Britain
re-introduced gold convertibility in 1925 that the Bank of England issued paper notes to represent its gold holdings - rather
than enabling free circulation of metal in coin - thereby shifting the world from a gold-coin to a bullion standard.

So never say never. Because the largest hoarders of gold by far today are the newly-enriched consumers of emerging Asia's
two largest economies. India's world-beating appetite is beginning to devour low-margin investment coins and bars once
more (some 30% of the subcontinent's gold purchases, according to Sunil Kashyap at Scotia Mocatta). Chinese households
have bought more gold in the last two-and-half years than the People's Bank holds in total - and here too, cost-efficient coins
and bars are gaining fast on non-investment forms.

Actively encouraged by Beijing, China's rapid private accumulation of both gold and silver should remind economic
historians that only structurally sound, growing economies have ever employed precious metals successfully as their
monetary standard. We'll have to wait and see whether China quite fits that bill. But gold has never been a panacea for weak,
over-indebted states, as the disaster of Britain's return to gold in 1925 proved.

Put another way...

"Our gold standard is not the cause but the consequence of our commercial prosperity..."

as prime minister Benjamin Disraeli noted in a speech to Glasgow industrialists fifty years earlier.

Still, Western investors fearing what Asia's rise could do to their own standard of living might also consider getting the jump
on China's rapid accumulation of privately-held gold. For as long as gold is used to store value, rather than directly for
buying and selling, then seeking out the most efficient, most secure route to owning it, and converting your gold into widely-
accepted currency as you need, looks the next best thing to enjoying gold-backed currency - your own private Gold Standard
in a world of central bankers hell-bent on devaluing your savings.

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/81632/20101113/going-back-to-gold-standard.htm

http://www.pensionsperformance.com/editorial/2008/index05_2008.pdf