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Master Plan Report: V. C. Bird International Airport
Master Plan Report: V. C. Bird International Airport
Master Plan Report: V. C. Bird International Airport
Bird
International Airport
Master Plan
Prepared for:
October 2005
Capability Statement
Antigua and Barbuda Millennium Airport Corporation
Expansion and Development of V.C. Bird International Airport
Master Plan Report
MASTER PLAN
Revision History
www.scottwilson.com
MASTER PLAN
CONTENTS
Figure 1.1 – Master Planning Process ....................................................................................... 6 Table 2.1 – Declared Distances ................................................................................................. 8
Figure 2.1 – Location of V. C. Bird International Airport ............................................................. 8 Table 3.1 - Direct Connectivity of VC Bird International Airport ................................................ 15
Figure 3.1 – Forecasting Context ............................................................................................. 12 Table 3.2 - Annual Air Freight Throughput Statistics ................................................................ 16
Figure 3.2 – Forecasting Methodology ..................................................................................... 12 Table 3.3 - Peak Hour ATM and Passenger Movements ......................................................... 17
Figure 3.3 - Annual Air Traffic Statistics – Passengers ............................................................ 12 Table 3.4 – Design Hour ATM and Passenger Movements ..................................................... 18
Figure 3.4 - Annual Air Traffic Statistics – ATMs ...................................................................... 13 Table 3.5 - Distribution of Passenger Traffic by Journey Purpose............................................ 19
Figure 3.5 - Monthly Distribution of Passenger Traffic in 2002-2004........................................ 13 Table 3.6 - Demand Drivers by Traffic Category ...................................................................... 19
Figure 3.6 - Monthly Distribution of Total Air Traffic and Tourist Arriving by Air ....................... 13 Table 3.7 - Economic Variables Growth, Real Terms............................................................... 20
Figure 3.7 - Market Shares of Major Airlines ............................................................................ 14 Table 3.8 - Projected Economic Growth in Major Air Passenger Markets ................................ 20
Figure 3.8 - Daily Distribution of Traffic in the Peak Month ...................................................... 16 Table 3.9 - Tourist Accommodation Provision .......................................................................... 22
Figure 3.9 - Hourly Distribution of Aircraft Movements on the Peak Day.................................. 16 Table 3.10 - Stayover Visitor Arrivals Projected By Antigua and Barbuda Tourism Plan ......... 22
Figure 3.10 - Hourly Distribution of Passengers on the Peak Day............................................ 17 Table 3.11 - Antigua and Barbuda Travel And Tourism Demand Growth Rates ...................... 23
Figure 3.11 - Private Aircraft Movements in the Peak Month ................................................... 17 Table 3.12 - Key Issues Associated with Passenger Traffic Growth Scenarios ....................... 25
Figure 3.12 - Hourly Distribution of Aircraft Movements on the Design Day............................. 17 Table 3.13 - Annual Passenger Forecasts ............................................................................... 25
Figure 3.13 – Hourly Distribution of Passenger Movements on the Design Day ...................... 18 Table 3.14 - Annual Freight and Mail Forecasts, tonnes .......................................................... 26
Figure 3.14 - Private Aircraft Movements on the Design Day................................................... 18 Table 3.15 - Annual Air Transport Movement Forecasts .......................................................... 27
Figure 3.15 - Tourist Stayover Arrivals in 1977-2004 ............................................................... 21 Table 3.16 - Peak and Design Hour Passenger Forecasts ...................................................... 28
Figure 3.16 - Tourist Arrivals by Country of Origin ................................................................... 21 Table 3.17 - Peak and Design Hour Air Transport Movement Forecasts ................................. 28
Figure 3.17 - Foreign Visitor Arrivals Growth in January-May 2004-2005 ................................ 21 Table 3.18 - Design Hour Two-Way Transfer Passenger Flows............................................... 29
Figure 3.18 - Tourist Arrivals by Length of Stay ....................................................................... 22 Table 3.19 Impact of the New LIAT Schedule on Peak and Design Flows.............................. 29
Figure 3.19 - Comparison of Foreign Visitor Arrivals and Airport Passenger Traffic ................ 23 Table 4.1 - Peak Hour Air Transport Movement Forecasts, 2005 – 2030 ................................ 31
Figure 3.20 - Annual Passenger Forecasts, 2005-2030 ........................................................... 25 Table 4.2 - Main Apron Aircraft Stand Requirements ............................................................... 31
Figure 3.21 - Annual Air Transport Movement Forecasts ......................................................... 26 Table 4.3 - Design Hour Passenger Demand........................................................................... 32
Figure 4.1 - Annual Passenger Forecasts, 2005 – 2030 .......................................................... 30 Table 4.4 - Passenger Terminal Floor Area Requirement ........................................................ 32
Figure 4.2 - Annual Air Transport Movement Forecasts, 2005 – 2030 ..................................... 30 Table 4.5 - Departures Key Functional Requirements.............................................................. 33
Figure 5.1 - Processing Conceptual Scenarios ........................................................................ 35 Table 4.6 - Arrivals Key Functional Requirements ................................................................... 33
Figure 6.1 – Modelled Arrival Taxiway Movements .................................................................. 38 Table 4.7 - Immediate-Term Key Functional Requirements ..................................................... 34
Figure 6.2 – Modelled Departure Taxiway Movements ............................................................ 38 Table 4.8 - Estimated Modal Split of Passengers..................................................................... 34
Figure 6.3 – Modelled Stand Allocations .................................................................................. 38 Table 4.9 - Car Parking and Drop-Off Requirements ............................................................... 34
Figure 6.4 – Sample Model “Snap Shots” ................................................................................ 38 Table 5.1 - Consideration of Processing Conceptual Options .................................................. 36
Figure 7.1 – Phase 1 Apron Level Plan .................................................................................... 42 Table 6.1 – Observed Taxiing Delay Crossing Runway 07/25 ................................................. 39
Figure 7.2 – Phase 1 Ground Floor Level Plan ........................................................................ 42 Table 8.1 – Existing Landing Charge Structure ........................................................................ 46
Figure 7.3 – Phase 1 First Floor Level Plan ............................................................................. 43 Table 8.2 – Embarkation Tax Structure.................................................................................... 46
Figure 7.4 – Phase 2 Apron Level Plan .................................................................................... 43 Table 8.3 – Aeronautical Revenue - Summary......................................................................... 46
Figure 7.5 – Phase 2 Ground Floor Level Plan ........................................................................ 43 Table 8.4 – Average Airport Charges (One Way)..................................................................... 47
Figure 7.6 – Phase 2 First Floor Level Plan ............................................................................. 43 Table 8.5 – Non-Aeronautical Revenue ................................................................................... 47
Figure 7.7 – Phase 1 Terminal Perspective View No. 1 ........................................................... 44 Table 8.6 – Schedule of Operating Costs................................................................................. 48
Figure 7.8 – Phase 2 Terminal Perspective View..................................................................... 44
Figure 7.9 – Phase 1 Terminal Perspective View Entry ........................................................... 44
Figure 7.10 – Phase 1 Terminal Cross Section ........................................................................ 44
Figure 7.11 – Phase 1 Terminal Perspective Apron View ........................................................ 45
Figure 8.1 – Revenue per Passenger by World Region ........................................................... 47
Figure 8.2 – Share of Non-Aeronautical Revenue by World Region ........................................ 48
Figure 8.3 – Operating Costs per Passenger by World Region................................................ 49
Figure 8.4 – Annual Debt Service Cover Ration....................................................................... 50
Figure 8.5 – Revenue Sensitivities ........................................................................................... 50
movements
150,000
accommodate the current traffic demand. This is principally an issue of physical restrictions but is
compounded by the absence of modern systems, for example common desks at check-in, and by under
staffing during peak periods as is evident at arrivals customs check. 100,000
Airfield
50,000
The existing airfield does not fully comply with ICAO requirements. In particular runway end safety
areas are not declared.
0
The runway strip declared is a non-instrument strip whereas it should comply with the requirements for 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
non-precision approaches. The required, wider strip and associated features encompass Carlisle Hill.
This aspect is one of the key features shaping the master plan. Annual Air Transport Movement Forecasts, 2005 - 2030
The aircraft pavements are in urgent need of immediate refurbishment in order to ensure safe flying Design hour passenger throughputs are forecast to grow to 2,600 one-way and 3,500 two-way
operations. passengers by 2030.
Services Airfreight is forecast to grow to 20,700 tonnes by 2030. Airfreight is difficult to forecast given the current
low throughput and is sensitive to the commercial decisions of operators and integrators.
The principal concern relates to the electrical supply from APUA and shortage of generating capacity in
Antigua. The airport is already relying significantly on its own generators. The configuration of the
airport’s two generators could be improved.
Car parking and circulation are expanded immediately north of the existing terminal and to the east of
Planning Parameters
the new terminal building, taking account of the constraint of the existing Sun printing works, which
The master plan has been developed to satisfy the forecast demand as above within the following make the layout less efficient than it would otherwise need to be and detract from the visual appearance
parameters: of the new terminal building.
• non-instrument declared surfaces in the short to medium term, with the ability to reconfigure
Passenger Terminal Conceptual Design
the airport to satisfy non-precision requirements in the medium-term and thereby preserve
the ability to provide fully instrumented conditions in the medium to long term; The new terminal building is provided over three levels:
• the ability to accommodate one Code F aircraft (Airbus A380). The master plan does not • ground floor level (as approached from the landside access):
pre-suppose the widening of the runway (to a total width of 75m), the cost of which would o departures: landside concourse and check-in
have to be considered as part of the business case for the introduction of Code F operations;
o arrivals: arrival corridors, immigration, baggage reclaim, customs and landside
• declare runway end safety areas immediately and extend the runway westwards to retain the concourse
current 2,737m declared distances;
• first floor level:
• preserve the ability to extend the runway westwards to a total length of 3,200m, representing
the minimum length required for non-stop operations to China; o departures: security comb, airside lounge, retailing and departures gates
• phased expansion of the apron areas to provide 33 stands by 2030 (11 wide body, 22 • basement/apron level:
narrow body); o departures: baggage sortation
• phased expansion of passenger terminal facilities to a headline floor area of 78,000m by 2
o arrivals: baggage drop-off
2030;
The building presents a modern 21st century gateway to the country, but is constructed from materials
• immediate provision of car parking facilities under the control of the airport, expanded to reflecting the local architecture. The walls will use infill panels of local stone, whilst the metal clad roof
approximately 2,500 spaces by 2030. will be supported on timber beams giving natural warmth and an overall impression of vernacular
ambience, yet retaining the open feel of large spans and a roof that reflects a human scale as
Recommended Master Plan passengers move through the building.
The recommended master plan is shown on drawing D109233/MP-I/01, showing the long term layout The following pages show perspectives of the terminal.
complying with the requirements of instrument approaches (precision or non-precision).
Financial Analysis
Airfield
Maintenance and development of the existing facility have not kept pace with demand and therefore
Apron expansion is accommodated principally to the east of the existing terminal zone (in the area of there is an immediate need to invest to recover that shortfall in addition to the required expansion for
the existing LIAT hangars). In view of the spatial restrictions north of the runway, the parallel taxiway is future growth.
provided south of the runway.
Capital expenditure to 2008, remaining cash positive, is EC$250 million. Real, total capital expenditure
The fuel farm is assumed to expand within its current locality. All other support facilities (including the to 2030 is EC$1 billion. Over the same period, assuming the PFC is increased to EC$50 per
fire station, aircraft maintenance, flight catering and cargo facilities) are relocated in the medium term to passengers and typical returns from retailing and other non-aeronautical revenue streams, total
a dedicated support zone south of the runway. revenues are EC$ 2.5 billion. The internal rate of return is 16.6%. Average annual debt service cover
The former “Runway 10”, discreetly separated from the main passenger processing and support activity ration is 1.68.
areas, is preserved for GA and FBO operations.
These sections are supported by more detailed information in the appendices as follows:
A. discusses the review of the structure of the existing passenger terminal;
B. discusses the review of the mechanical and electrical installations serving the airport and
in particular the existing passenger terminal;
C. presents a review of the passenger processing capability of the existing terminal;
D. presents an analysis of the required runway length necessary to support the forecast
flying operations and the options by which runway end safety areas can be provided; and
E. describes the enhancement works that would be necessary to the existing passenger
terminal in order to maximise its processing capacity and improve the experience of
travellers.
V. C. Bird Although technically “non-precision”, aircraft operations are currently “visual” with the
International corresponding non-instrument obstacle limitation surfaces defined. Runway end safety areas
Airport (RESA’s) are not provided. The requirement for RESA’s is discussed in Section 4.2.3.
Only two designated taxiways are provided, Alpha and Bravo providing direct access from the
runway to the main apron. Movement across the main apron is by marshal control only. The
former “Runway 10” provides
Drawing D109233/RES/02 shows the existing terminal zone and its relation to the visual runway
strip, the minimum permitted parallel taxiway separation and the corresponding Code E taxiway
clearance requirement. The drawing shows that much of the existing apron does not conform to
ICAO requirements and that the B747 and B777 aircraft, parked as currently, infringe the
transitional surface.
The parking arrangement can be confusing and give rise to instances of passengers accessing
the incorrect aircraft. Unacceptably, the requirement for passengers to walk to aircraft can
expose them in areas to jet-blast from parked aircraft.
Vehicle movement across the apron appears to be generally uncontrolled with vehicles
proceeding on their own assessment of safe to do so.
The following summary discusses the required works, which will be incorporated into the phase In operational terms, the fire station is suitably located immediately west of the main apron, but
1 works.: is not provided with a suitable access to either the apron or the runway. The location however
does unacceptably allow jet-blast from the wide-body aircraft parked at the western end of the
Resurface Runway 07-25 main apron to blow over the building when aircraft power off stand. The apron area in front of
The existing wearing course is heavily oxidised and should be replaced. These works would the building is also insufficiently deep to permit appliances to be stationed on the apron and
also comprise refurbishment of the shoulders and repainting of the markings. permit other vehicles to manoeuvre.
The fire station building itself is unsatisfactory and does not provide an acceptable level of
Replace Mutli-Cracked Bays on the Main Apron accommodation for the staff or the equipment. In particular:
Between Taxiways Alpha and Bravo, the main taxiway along the southern edge of the main • the building is too shallow for the appliances to be parked within the building and the doors
apron is severely cracked and should be re-instated. This would entail the replacement of in closed;
total 24 bays.
• an exhaust extraction system is not provided, such that maintenance of vehicles that
Access Road to the Fire Station involves running of the engines within the building is unacceptable.
Currently the fire station does not have direct access to the runway and it is unlikely that The airport is not provided with an acceptable fire training ground for “hot” training.
vehicles could respond to an incident at the western end of the runway within the ICAO required The airport is not provided with a sea rescue facility.
response time.
The partially constructed parallel taxiway, its continuation across the southern edge of the LIAT has two hangars to the east of the terminal zone, accessed via a poorly maintained and
existing apron and Taxiways Alpha and Bravo all require either a shoulder constructing in its controlled taxiway from the main apron. The buildings are functional, but reaching the end of
entirety or refurbishment of the existing shoulder. their useful lives.
AGL Caribbean Star has new maintenance facilities on the former Runway 10.
The current AGL works show a range of defects including exposed cables both in the soft and 2.3. Passenger Terminal
poorly fitted to cable grooves, unsealed surrounds to surface fittings and redundant fittings.
The existing building is over 20 years old, is no longer suitable for the passenger and aircraft
processing demand placed upon it and has been inadequately maintained. The building
2.2.4 Air Traffic Control presents a poor image to passengers and an inadequate working environment for airport staff
and concessionaires.
ATC is provided through the tower immediately west of the passenger terminal. The following
landing aids and instruments are provided:
2.3.1 Structural and M&E Assessments
• VOR/DME;
• NDB A visual inspection of the building was undertaken with respect to its structural integrity and the
performance of the electrical and mechanical systems. The results of these surveys are
• radar presented in Appendices A and B respectively.
• Approach, Tower, Ground and ATIS communications; The building was constructed in circa 1981 and was significantly extended in circa 1994. An
upgrade/extension of the electrical mechanical systems was undertaken in 1997.
• meteorological service;
The structural form of the original building and of the extensions is of an in-situ concrete frame
• high intensity approach lighting to Runway 07 only; and comprising columns on a regular grid supporting an arrangement of downstand beams and
• PAPI to Runways 07 and 25. slabs at first floor and roof levels. Foundations consist of simple pad footings. The 140m long
building is divided into three separate sections by movement joints. Concrete shear walls that
The elements of the ATC systems are of varying ages that range from the relatively new and extend from foundation to roof level provide lateral stability of each section
manufacturer supported, to obsolete with spares essentially unobtainable. In particular the
radar does not appear to operate continuously or acceptably. In general terms, considering the age, the environment and the usage of the building, the
structural concrete frame was found to be in good condition with no significant problems, other
than those areas of visible deterioration, particularly where areas of concrete cover have spalled
2.2.5 Fire Station due to corrosion of the reinforcement.
The existing service is rated as complying with ICAO category 8, although for the level of traffic Similarly, the original mechanical and electrical installations were of a good standard and no
experienced a category 9 service should be provided. doubt the building has benefited from this though out its life. The 1994 works again appear to
have been carried out to a good standard but are showing signs of ageing now. The later works restaurant adjacent to the airport. It is unknown what loads these other users are taking as
circa 1997, and in particular the air-condition system, would appear to have been installed to a proportion of the 5MVA available from the cable and also the portion of the load being taken
relatively lower specification to the rest of the installation and are already showing signs of from the Cassada gardens primary substation. The supply is transformed down to 208volts via
premature ageing. Consequently all three phases of installation are approaching the end of the airports single recently installed 1.5 MVA transformer. The transformer is sited adjacent the
their useful working lives. Significantly, key life safety installations such as fire alarms, main switch room in the compound adjacent the ATC tower.
emergency lighting and a fully operation hydrant system are not provided.
There are currently 2no. standby generators one of 725KW capacity and one of 500KW
capacity. These generators are not synchronised and therefore do not run simultaneously. The
2.3.2 Passenger Processing Capacity 725KW (Caterpillar 1997) set is regularly used when APUA are load shedding. The second
500KW set is used as a back up only in case for failure of the 725KW set. When the 500KW set
The function of the terminal with respect to passenger processing was assessed. The results of is being run the Airport engineers shed the AC loads to bring the connected load within the
these observations are discussed in Appendices D and E. capacity of the set. The airport appears to rely heavily on their generators as sources of primary
power.
2.4. Landside
2.5.2 Water
2.4.1 Access
The APUA supply to the airport is fed via the Crag’s desalination plant and the reverse osmosis
The airport is accessed via a single carriageway road. It is understood that during peak periods plant. The airport was reported to have a 4” connection however, the main pipe serving the
this road can become congested. Upgrading the road to dual carriageway would not improve airport is 6”.
matters as the general road network to which it connects is also of single carriageway width.
The mains water supply enters the terminal building via the basement pump room. Adjacent to
Immediately in front of the terminal is a wide, but un-segregated set-down/pick-up area. During the pump room is a large water storage tank, which allows the airport to store water as required
peak times the area operates unacceptably as the movement and stopping of vehicles is poorly in order to maintain supplies within the building. The tanks would appear to rather large and it is
managed and uncontrolled. questionable as to how long the water is left standing in the tanks before. Ideally potable water
should not be stored for in excess of 24 hours. Initial thoughts are that water will stand in these
2.4.2 Car Parking tanks for in excess of 24 hours. It was suggested that this tank could be supplied with run off
water from the terminal roof, however this would has not been verified. The pump room also
The only car park serving the airport is that adjacent to the Sticky Wicket restaurant. The car contains a triple filter set, fire hydrant pump and sump pump.
park is owned by the Stanford Development Company and is not under the control of the airport. Maintenance staff confirm that the pump room is regularly flooded and evidence to support this
is available within the room. Generally the pump room is in a poor state of repair and lacks any
2.4.3 Security forced ventilation making it a health and safety hazard. Until such a time as forced ventilation is
provided operatives should not be allowed to work in the area unsupervised and without
The airport is nominally provided with a security fence to its entire perimeter, although in breathing apparatus.
sections the fence appears deficient.
Terminal security is not satisfactory. Apron access via the door at the west end of check-in is 2.5.3 Fuel
largely uncontrolled and the freedom of movement of “Red Caps” to and from the baggage
reclaim area is unacceptable. The fuel farm is located west of the main apron, north of the fire station. The facility is operated
by Texaco and Shell as a 50/50 joint venture. Its current storage capacities are:
The management of security across the boundary of the former Runway 10 and the areas
managed by Stanford Development Company should also be formalised. • Jet A1: 168,000 US gallons
Private vehicles routinely enter airside areas generally used by staff working in certain areas, • Avgas: 6,000 US gallons
notably the fire station and at Runway 10. The procedures for such movements should also be The facility is refilled daily from the adjacent West Indies Oil (WIO) installation of 42,000 US
formalised. gallons capacity, which in turn is recharged from WIO’s main facility in Antigua via a supply main
that enters the airport from the west.
2.5. Services and Utilities
Refuelling of aircraft is via the existing hydrant system supplying six positions and bowser units
as follows:
2.5.1 Electricity
• 1 nr. Jet A1 bowser of 7,000 US gallons capacity;
Refer to Appendix B for a more detailed discussion.
• 2 nr. Jet A1 bowsers each of 5,000 US gallons capacity; and
The airport is served at 11KV via a resilient pair of cables rated at 5MVA from the APUA mains.
These cables also serve the Coolidge district, businesses on the airport road and the banks and • 1 nr. AVGAS bowser of 750 US gallons capacity.
Jet A1 consumption during the busiest months of October to March is reported as around 1.5
million US gallons per month. In the low season consumption is reported around 1.0 million US
gallons per month. Thus the Texaco/Shell facility has approximately three days capacity,
enabling the WIO facility to hold settling, transferred oil satisfactorily.
2.5.4 Catering
Flight catering is provided from catering unit east of the existing terminal operated by Goddard
Catering Group. The service appears to be well managed. The unit is securely airside with a
dedicated access track to the pavement joining the LIAT hangars to the main apron. After this
point catering vehicles can access the main apron.
The key processes involved in the air traffic analysis and forecasting are presented in the
3. TRAFFIC FORECASTS following figure.
DEMAND VARIABLES
3.1. Introduction Economy
ANNUAL TRAFFIC
• to determine the capacity constraints and sizing of various elements of airport facilities to periods
MARKET VARIABLES
VFR
•
- other airports PEAK PERIOD
to provide the basis for estimating future cash flows generated by the airport; - other modes FORECASTS
Development of air
•
services
Peak day
to inform the airport management and relevant authorities in determining the overall Political & regulatory
Peak and design hour
business strategy.
An overall approach to forecasting and its integration into development and business planning
framework is presented on the diagram below: Figure 3.2 – Forecasting Methodology
VC Bird International Airport is a medium-sized airport serving the island of Antigua in the East
Caribbean region. The airport mainly serves the local population of close to 100,000 according
to some estimates (official population 76,000) and foreign visitors attracted to Antigua as a
holiday destination.
Figure 3.3 illustrates the annual traffic changes over the last ten years:
1,000,000 Key facts:
900,000
800,000 Air passenger traffic throughput
Figure 3.3 - Annual Air Traffic Statistics – In 2004 the airport surpassed the
Passengers1 passenger numbers registered in
Figure 3.1 – Forecasting Context (Source: Ministry of Tourism, Antigua and Barbuda) 1994, with 864,000 passengers using
the airport in this year.
This section is structured as follows: Section 3.2 presents an overview of the airport’s past and
current air traffic (as of April/May 2005); Section 3.3 presents an analysis of the main drivers of
traffic growth (economy, tourism, etc.) and an outline of the traffic forecasting methodology and
key assumptions made; Section 3.4 presents the traffic forecasts (annual and peak period) and
1
key risks. Note. Where inconsistencies were observed in traffic measurements, lower level data were used to obtain totals
per annum.
Note: The following figure compares the seasonality of air traffic at VC Bird International Airport with
60,000 20
tourists arriving by air with the purpose of identifying to what extent tourist arrivals dictate the
Annual air transport movements
Air transport movements include all peaking of traffic.
70,000
(Source: ATC, VC Bird International Airport) 10,000 Total air passengers Tourists arriving by air
Average PATMs have varied from 14
0
to 18 passengers in 1993-2004.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
3.2.2 Seasonality
Figure 3.6 - Monthly Distribution of Total Air Traffic and Tourist Arriving by Air4
Figure 3.5 sets out the monthly distribution of passenger 2002-2004: (Source: Ministry of Tourism, Antigua and Barbuda)
100,000
2002 2003 2004 The hatched area represents the traffic generated by Antiguan nationals and represents
90,000
approximately 40-45 per cent of total air passenger traffic at VC Bird International Airport. There
80,000
is a clear correlation between the two line items. The peaks are visibly enhanced by the
Monthly air passengers
70,000 traditional annual events attended by Antiguans and foreign tourists. The key events are the
60,000 Sailing Week and international cricket matches in March-April and the Carnival in early August.
50,000 These events contribute to an increased traffic base in the months outside the normal winter
40,000
season tourist arrival peak in November-April. The continuing success of Home Coming may in
future years cause an additional peak in November.
30,000
20,000
10,000
3.2.3 Air Carriers
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Air passenger traffic is quite diversified with over 20 airlines serving the airport. However, six
carriers account for almost 80 per cent of all traffic. The development of their relative market
Figure 3.5 - Monthly Distribution of Passenger Traffic in 2002-2004 shares in the past three years is set out in Figure 3.7 below.
(Source: Ministry of Tourism, Antigua and Barbuda)
Passenger traffic demonstrates distinct seasonality with traffic peaking in April, July, August and
December. The absolute peak month in terms of air passenger movements in 2004 was
December, which coincided with the peak of tourist arrivals at the island. December traffic was
almost a third above the monthly average in 2004. The trough months are September (30 per
cent below the monthly average) and June (13 per cent below average). Anecdotally in 2005
this seasonal effect is becoming less pronounced, though it is uncertain whether this is a definite
trend.
2 4
Air transport movements Note: Overall tourist traffic by air is double the number of tourist arrivals as recorded by the Ministry of Tourism.
3
Passengers per air transport movement Tourist traffic data include non-resident business and visiting friends and relatives travellers.
Airfreight Operations
180
With the exception of relatively few airports where specialist airfreight airlines choose to Total No. of Deps
160
establish their hubs, the successful development of airfreight traffic depends upon the Total No. of Arr
availability of belly hold capacity on scheduled air passenger services. In this respect airports 140
supporting wide-bodied scheduled passenger services are particularly well placed to offer
No. of Movements
120
competitive airfreight services.
Airfreight is particularly important in Antigua, which is not self-sufficient in terms of food supply 100
and also relies on the imports of manufacturing products. 80
VC Bird International currently handles scheduled wide-bodied aircraft predominantly from the 60
US (or Caribbean transhipment bases) and the UK. In addition, Amerijet operates all-freighter
services to Antigua from Caribbean destination using its fleet of B727 aircraft. In 2004 it carried 40
over 1,000 tonnes through Antigua. 20
Up to date airfreight transportation data have not been made available to the consultant. The 0
table below sets out overall annual airfreight throughput data for 1994-1999.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Figure 3.8 - Daily Distribution of Traffic in the Peak Month
Air freight, tonnes 4,600 6,700 4,400 4,100 3,700 3,360 (Source: VC Bird International Airport, Scott Wilson analysis)
• DHL Airways (ER) with services to/from Cincinnati and other US bases;
No. of Pax
15
• FedEx (FX)/Caribbean Transportation Services with services to/from Memphis and other US
bases; 10
• United Parcel Service (5X) with services to/from Louisville and other US bases.
5
Airport officials estimate the freight throughput at the airport to be in the region of 4,000-6,000
tonnes per annum. Taking into account past traffic statistics, we have used a lower than median
value of 4,500 tonnes as the 2004 base year value. 0
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3.2.5 Peak and Design Day Profile
12
As previously discussed, the peak months are March, April, August and December. Following
discussions with Air Traffic Control and the airport’s management, December was identified as Figure 3.9 - Hourly Distribution of Aircraft Movements on the Peak Day
the peak month in terms of passenger throughput in 2004. Aerodrome movement logs were (Source: VC Bird International Airport, Scott Wilson analysis)
provided for December 2004 permitting the necessary analysis of the peak month movements.
The movement log does not specify the number of passengers on each particular flight.
Peak Day – Commercial Movements
Passenger numbers, therefore, are consultant’s estimates based on the seating capacity of
Figure 3.8 shows the number of commercial ATMs for each day in December 2004. each type of aircraft and assumed load factors.
Figure 3.10 shows the hourly distribution of passenger movements at VC Bird International on
the 24th December 2004.
60
1400 No. of Private Dep
Dep Pax No. of Private Arr
1200
Arr Pax 50
800 40
Private Movements
600
30
400
200
20
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1a
1p
-3
-5
-7
-9
-3
-5
-7
-9
-1
-1
-1
-1
m
m
am
pm
am
pm
2a
4a
6a
8a
2p
4p
6p
8p
12
12
10
10
0
01/12/04 03/12/04 05/12/04 07/12/04 09/12/04 11/12/04 13/12/04 15/12/04 17/12/04 19/12/04 21/12/04 23/12/04 25/12/04 27/12/04
Figure 3.10 - Hourly Distribution of Passengers on the Peak Day
(Source: VC Bird International Airport, Scott Wilson analysis)
Figure 3.11 - Private Aircraft Movements in the Peak Month
(Source: VC Bird International Airport, Scott Wilson analysis)
The overall passenger movements on the peak day were estimated to be 4,516 arrivals and
4,509 departures. Design Day – Commercial Movements
The overall busiest hour in terms of aircraft movements and passengers was 8pm-9pm. The Based on our analysis of December 2004 traffic and discussions with the ATC and airport
following table details the peak hour aircraft and passenger data: operations management, Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays were identified as the busiest
days for commercial aircraft movements. The analysis has shown that Saturdays, having a
greater number of movements by large commercial airliners, were usually more onerous in
Parameter No of movements Hour recorded terms of passenger movements than other days of the week. The Saturday traffic profile does
not tend to vary much in the course of the year and has, therefore, been used as the appropriate
Peak Hour ATMs One-Way 12 8pm-9pm
design parameter. The second busiest Saturday in December was used as a representative
Peak Hour ATM's Two-Way 21 8pm-9pm design day to remove the seasonal peaking distortion. The day falls on 11th December 2004
and the following figure displays the hourly distribution of aircraft movements on the day.
Peak Hour Passengers One-Way 910 7pm-9pm
25
Peak Hour Passengers Two-Way 1,143 8pm-9pm
No. of Dep
Table 3.3 - Peak Hour ATM and Passenger Movements 20
No. of Arr
15
No. of ATM's
Peak Day - Private Aircraft Movements
It is necessary to consider the number of private air traffic movements in order to confirm the 10
0
12am-1am 2am-3am 4am-5am 6am-7am 8am-9am 10am-11am 12pm-1pm 2pm-3pm 4pm-5pm 6pm-7pm 8pm-9pm 10pm-11pm
Hour
y
y
ay
y
ay
ay
ay
da
a
da
rd
id
nd
600
sd
sd
on
rs
Fr
tu
Su
ne
e
u
M
Sa
Tu
Th
ed
W
400 Figure 3.14 - Private Aircraft Movements on the Design Day
(Source: VC Bird International Airport, Scott Wilson analysis)
200
The table below shows the distribution of existing passenger traffic by journey purpose:
Residence
Table 3.5 - Distribution of Passenger Traffic by Journey Purpose The study used third party forecasts of the economic variables to obtain an indication of the
(Source: Estimates based on Ministry of Tourism data and discussions with airlines) long-term growth forecasts of demand for air travel using VC Bird International Airport. The
following sections analyse the key drivers of air transport demand growth and the market factors
impeding or encouraging airport traffic growth such as the development of airline services.
Information on non-residents’ journey purposes is drawn from the Ministry of Tourism records.
The disaggregation of resident passengers was based on surveys and discussions held with the
key airlines serving VC Bird International. 3.3.2 Air Freight Market
The study applied different economic demand drivers to forecast each passenger market It has not been possible to disaggregate airfreight into specific sub-markets. Information on
segment based on the following considerations: airfreight throughput by commodity is not collected on any routine basis and discussions with
Non-residents’ leisure arrivals to Antigua are to be linked to the tourism demand growth. The airlines and freight agents indicate that airfreight market is largely made up of perishables and
study did not use the GDP growth rates in the key tourist origin markets (notably the UK ad US) general cargo. Typical goods arriving by air include food products, machinery, spare parts, etc.
to forecast demand for travel to Antigua. The main reason is that this would presuppose that the Airfreight traffic has been split into two categories; firstly freight carried in the belly hold of
structure of the tourism industry in the world would remain static over the years. The study passenger aircraft; and secondly, freight carried in the hold of specialist freighter aircraft. This
relies on credible third-party Antiguan tourism demand forecasts (discussed further in the report) has been done because the distribution of freight between passenger and freight aircraft has
that are produced in the context of the recent trends in world tourism development and implications for total future aircraft movements.
competition of tourist destinations.
Unlike passenger traffic, airfreight throughput tends to be biased in one direction. At VC Bird
Non-residents’ business arrivals are most closely related to the target economy (Antigua) International Airport, inbound flows currently dominate total freight and mail throughput. Based
performance, which determines the amount of business travel from other economies it can on the Antiguan economy composition the forecasts assume that the direction of airfreight flows
generate. will not change over the forecast period.
The key long-term determinant of residents’ leisure and VFR travel is the growth in the country’s Almost all airfreight at VC Bird International Airport is end-to-end and there is virtually no transfer
GDP (or disposable income) per capita. The economic logic is that the more prosperous the or transit freight transported. Airfreight handlers have expressed a view that if freight facilities
country and individuals become the more income is allocated to travel and the higher the were adequate at VC Bird International Airport, some transhipment of airfreight, especially
propensity to travel. The GDP variable is also reflects increased travel related to the population carried in freighter aircraft, may occur to avoid costly services to smaller islands in the region.
growth. To cater for this it is suggested that the master planning process may wish to design a modest
Residents’ business travel is determined by the island’s economic performance and foreign transfer capability in the airport’s international freight facility.
trade growth. There are third-party forecasts of the demand for business travel in Antigua The demand for airfreight and airmail services is largely generated by economic activity carried
(discussed further in the report). These were used to estimate the growth in residents’ business out within Antigua and its growth will be related to the future growth of the Antiguan economy.
travel. The average annual growth rates used to generate airfreight and mail forecasts are the same as
Non-residents’ VFR travel is primarily linked to the external GDP growth as an indicator of the those specified in respect of the passenger forecasts.
increase in the disposable income and ability to afford travel. The frequency of travel of ‘ethnic’ The value of the elasticity of demand used to relate the growth of air freight throughput to the
traffic might reduce in second or third generations of migrants who might choose other growth of economic activity in Antigua has been set at a 2.0 for the medium growth assumptions
destinations for leisure travel. This reduction in travel is usually offset by additional trips and is based on the assumption that adequate freight handling facilities are in place to facilitate
generated by new waves of migrants. projected growth. These values are broadly in line with those used by the major aircraft
Economic and tourism demand drivers may be interrelated because tourism forms a major part manufacturers to derive airfreight forecasts.
of Antiguan and Caribbean economies.
The key long-term economic demand drivers for each category are summarised in the table
below:
3.3.3 Economic Variables been extrapolated to 2030 at the long-term average annual growth rate projected for the period
2010-15. World Bank5 projections for ‘high income countries’ have been used to represent
Economic Overview growth rates in 2006 and 2007 after which growth has been extrapolated forward at a constant
rate of 2.5 percent through to 2030.
The Antiguan economy is chiefly service oriented with tourism, financial and government
services representing the main contributors to income and employment. The real economic growth rates underpinning the traffic forecasts for VC Bird International
Airport under the medium term assumptions are summarised in the following table.
GDP per capita (based on the purchasing power parity) was US$6,274 in 2002 and is one of the
highest in the Caribbean. The average growth in GDP in 1998-2002 was 3.35 per cent per
annum. Economy 2006-10 2011-15 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30
Agriculture accounts for 4% of the economy and the island is not self-sufficient in terms of food UK 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
provision. Industry is responsible for 19% of output and is predominantly made up of light
US and other economies 2.56% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
manufacturing, e.g. clothing, alcohol and household appliances. Services account for 77% of
the economic output and include tourism, banking and financial services. Table 3.8 - Projected Economic Growth in Major Air Passenger Markets
The main trade partners in terms of value of exports in 2001 (total of US$17million) were: (Source: PWC, World Bank)
• OECS – 24%;
• US – 10%; Elasticities of Demand
• Trinidad and Tobago – %; The elasticities used in the forecasting equations for this study are those identified by and used
in a range of comparable industry studies. Due to limited data available it was not possible to
• Barbados – 2%. calibrate the forecasting assumptions.
Main exported commodities were petroleum products, manufactured products, food and live The generally accepted value of elasticity for business travel is around 1.0, which implies that a
animals, machinery. 1 percent increase in GDP will generate a corresponding 1 percent increase in the demand for
The biggest imports trade partners (US$375million) were: air travel. For non-business travel the value of elasticity is higher implying that an increase in
economic activity and incomes generates a proportionately higher increase in the demand for air
• US – 2%; travel. The value of elasticities for leisure markets worldwide range between 1.5 and 2.5. The
• UK – 1%; and analysis has adopted an elasticity of 2.0 for non-business passengers. Under the medium
growth assumptions, the value of elasticity for non-business travel has been assumed to
• OECS – 1% decrease gradually over the forecast period from 2.0 to 1.8.
Imported commodities included food and live animals, machinery, manufactured products,
chemicals and oil. 3.3.4 Tourism Context
Economic Forecasts
Historic Growth
Oxford Economic Forecasting, an organisation providing economic forecasts for most countries
in the world, predicts the real GDP growth of Antiguan economy over the next 10 years to be 3.0 Tourism accounts for approximately fifty percent (50%) of GDP and generates approximately
per cent annually (see the reference cited for Table 3.7 below). The predicted growth in other 8,000 jobs or about 26 per cent of employment directly.
economic variables is set out in the following table: The following figure illustrates the development of tourism over the last three decades:
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Exports of goods 3.6% 4.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Imports of goods 5.6% 4.8% 5.0% 4.2% 4.3% 4.0% 3.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Business travel 10.1% 7.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
Future growth rates for the UK (the largest passenger market) have been based upon
Consensus Economics’ long-term projections as published in the most recent edition of the
PricewaterhouseCoopers European Economic Outlook. These long-term growth rates have 5
Global Economic Prospects 2004, World Bank, September 2004.
300,000
Most of the growth in tourist arrivals has been from the UK. If UK visitors were to be removed
from the analysis the overall numbers of arrivals in 2004 would be approximately at the 1995
250,000 level. Growth in UK originated travel has been contributed to by a stronger pound sterling as
100,000
Continental Europe’s market share more than halved following the hurricanes in the second half
of the 1990s from over 30,000 in 1994 to fewer than 10,000 in 2002. Arrivals from Germany
50,000 decreased dramatically from 12,000 to just over 2,000, a similar tendency was observed in
French and Swiss origin markets following the withdrawal of direct routes to Antigua. There
0 have been signs of an upturn in the market in 2003-2004. The Italian market has returned to the
pre-1995 level. Condor is planning a direct service from Germany, which may contribute to the
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
competitiveness of Antigua as a tourist destination in the key European market.
Figure 3.15 - Tourist Stayover Arrivals in 1977-2004 US and Canadian tourist arrivals have not grown on the 1994 level and neither have their
respective market shares, although in the last few years American traffic has been showing
Long-term tourism development displayed an underlying growth of 5 per cent per annum over signs of recovery growing by over 5 per cent per annum in 2002-2004.
the last 27 years.
Chinese airlines have also announced their interest in starting up services to cater for the
Tourist arrivals suffered a major setback in 1995 and the following years as a result of a series increasing demand for travel among China’s middle class. No firm commitments have been
of hurricanes striking the island. Prior to 1995 tourist arrivals growth averaged around 8 per cent announced yet.
per annum and slowed to less than 3 per cent in 1995-2004. There was a decline in traffic in
2001 in the aftermath of September 11th events. In the following years the industry has been In the first five months of 2005 tourist arrivals have shown signs of a slowdown as illustrated by
growing strongly to reach the pre-1995 levels in 2004. the following chart:
Tourist arrivals growth in Antigua is broadly in line with the Caribbean region tourism growth. In
140,000
2003, Caribbean tourist arrivals increased by 7 per cent (whilst worldwide tourism recorded a
decline of 1.5 per cent as a result of SARS, avian flu and other factors); 2004 was the year when
120,000
world tourist arrivals grew strongly throughout the world as well as in the Caribbean.
United Kingdom
United States
200,000
Other Caricom 0
Canada 2004 2005
150,000
Other Europe
Other Caribbean Figure 3.17 - Foreign Visitor Arrivals Growth in January-May 2004-2005
100,000
Rest of the w orld
50,000
The number of arrivals from most countries contracted in the first half of 2005. Arrivals from the
UK dropped by 8 per cent and from the US by 5 per cent, contributing to the overall tourist
0
arrival decline of 4 per cent. Arrivals were stagnant year-on-year in January, slumped in
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
February, April and May and increased only in the month of March.
The slowdown in foreign visitor arrivals may be the result of the slowing economic growth and
Figure 3.16 - Tourist Arrivals by Country of Origin consumer spending and confidence in the key origin markets UK and US. Full year results are
required to assess whether traffic decline is a seasonal variation or a longer-term trend. CTO are included into the equation, the monthly capacity is increased to approximately 30,000 beds.
(Caribbean Tourism Organisation) expects continued growth in 2005 at a more modest rate than The peak number of arriving visitors was 27,715 in April 2004; if travellers visiting friends and
in 2003-2004, in the region of four to five percent. relatives, in transit and connecting for cruises are excluded from the analysis, the demand for
beds would be 21,142, or 84 per cent of available hotel capacity and 70 per cent including
Tourism Infrastructure private villas.
Antigua boasts a variety of accommodation establishments ranging from five-star all-inclusive Antigua Hotels and Tourist Association reported plans for an increase in the short term of the
hotels to private villas. The composition of the accommodation offered on the island is detailed hotel capacity by the main players, such as Sandals, Blue Waters, St James, etc., by around
in the following table. 300-500 rooms (or 10-15 per cent of total existing hotel room capacity). The Antigua and
Barbuda Tourism Strategic Policy and Plan sets the target for additional tourist accommodation
provision at 2,695 rooms by 2009. The Hotel Association believes that the target is over-
No of properties No of rooms ambitious and that half of this number would be a more realistic objective.
More than 75 rooms 11 2063 The biggest growth in accommodation infrastructure is expected to be in the villa development
Fewer than 75 rooms 16 1092 reflecting an upsurge in demand for self-catering holidays and second homes, which dictates
much of the growth of private accommodation on the island. Anecdotal evidence suggests that
Apartments/Villas/Condos/Guest Houses 39 150 as many as 1,800 new 2-4 bedroom villas may be commissioned in the medium term, nearly
TOTAL 66 3305 doubling bed provision on the island.
Table 3.9 - Tourist Accommodation Provision Based on the above analysis, accommodation infrastructure is, therefore, not considered to be a
constraining factor in the medium term. If anything the provision of additional private
(Source: Antigua Hotels and Tourist Association)
accommodation may diversify the tourist offer and attract new visitors or settlers to the island
Hotel room supply has been static in the last decade. Much of the infrastructure work in the who would normally be more frequent travellers than hotel occupants.
hotel industry in the recent years has been focussed on restoring the hotel capacity affected by
the 1995 hurricane. Tourism Prospects
The growth area in the accommodation has been villa developments exemplified by a complex The Government’s forecasts of tourism growth are set out in the Antigua and Barbuda Tourism
in the Jolly Harbour area counting around 350 villas. These are occupied by either non-resident Plan which forecasts tourist arrivals to grow at the following rates:
owners in holiday periods, rented out or by longer-term settlers as first or second homes. The
overall villa provision on the island is currently estimated by the Ministry of Tourism to be in the
region of 1,000 rooms, which are not accounted for in the above Hotels and Tourist Association 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
statistics. (actual)
The average length of stay statistics are provided in the following chart: Stayover visitor arrivals, '000s 245 260 278 3086 319 341
% change year-on-year 6% 7% 11% 4% 7%
22 + DAYS OVERNIGHT
7% 4% Table 3.10 - Stayover Visitor Arrivals Projected By Antigua and Barbuda Tourism Plan
16 - 21 DAYS
6% (Source: Antigua and Barbuda Tourism Strategic Policy and Plan)
The annualised compound growth rate in 2005-2009 underlying these forecasts is 7 per cent.
Forecasts prepared by Oxford Economic Forecasting on Behalf of the World Tourism and Travel
Council (WTTC) in 2004 envisage the following travel and tourism demand growth rates in 2005-
2013.
8 - 15 DAYS 2 - 7 DAYS
32% 51%
300,000 900,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
800,000
Travel and 250,000
Table 3.11 - Antigua and Barbuda Travel And Tourism Demand Growth Rates 500,000
150,000
(Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting for WTTC)
Visitor arrivals (one-w ay) 400,000
second largest New Jersey market directly to Antigua. US Airways and BWIA operate direct year, following the re-organisation of LIAT’s schedule to centre its operation at its two hubs in
flights on a much smaller scale from New York, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Antigua and Barbados. In peak days the number of air transport movements is estimated by
LIAT to increase to around 53 (as per their schedule for second half of 2005) and to 76 in 2006
The introduction of direct flights to key captive markets in the US and other countries may have
(as indicated in the Transformation Plan 2005-2006). This would almost double their average
a positive impact on fares, convenience of travel and a stimulating effect on the overall traffic
aircraft movements at Antigua, currently around 25-30 per day. On the 11th December 2004 the
levels. For example, the case for AA introducing direct services from the key markets to Antigua
day used as a design day for the purposes of the study, LIAT operated 28 aircraft movements at
should be more evident over time as tourism demand grows and when the overall critical mass
VC Bird International.
of travellers would ensure consistent load factors on direct services (provided adequate security
facilities and procedures are in place) without undermining the strength of their regional hub. AA LIAT could not comment on the proportion of transit and transfer passengers who might use
representatives have indicated in their questionnaire the fact that they are lobbying for direct Antigua for connections at this stage. If the airline’s strategy is successful, the numbers of
scheduled services to/from Miami, potentially on a daily basis. passengers it flies through VC Bird International would more than double. The new schedule is
likely to generate some growth in point-to-point travellers encouraged by an improved availability
The incremental growth rates applied to reflect improvement in the quality, range and price of air
of services but most of the growth is expected to be in the ‘transfer’ category. This would mean
services to and from Antigua in the medium growth scenario are assumed to be around 2.5 per
that the number of transfer passengers would increase from the existing 16,000 to close to
cent in 2006-2010 slowing down to 1 per cent by 2030 reflecting the maturity of the market.
200,000.
Business travellers are usually less sensitive to the improvements in airline services and
The success of LIAT’s new hubbing operations in Antigua is by no means certain. In the recent
therefore these incremental growth rates will not apply to this market segment.
years legacy carriers employing hub-and-spoke systems in the US and Europe have been losing
Transfer Operations their market shares to point-to-point operators (especially low-cost airlines) on short to medium
haul routes. Given the relatively short distances between the islands in the East Caribbean the
VC Bird International Airport has aspirations to become more than just an end-to-end tourist case for direct services is even more compelling unless the density of the route is not sufficient
airport serving its own catchment area but also an important sub-regional hub. There are a to justify end-to-end services. One of the reasons for changing the route structure may be the
number of basic requirements for an airport to operate effectively as an interline hub. inability by LIAT to withdraw low in traffic but socially important services; and hubbing is seen as
These include: a way to improve load factors on these ‘public service’ routes.
Inadequate transfer passenger facilities at VC Bird International and the current embarkation tax
• a substantial home market,
charging regime may also be a constraint to growth in interlining traffic. The resolution of these
• a strong based airline, and issues may encourage further growth in hubbing operations.
• a good geographical position. In view of the uncertainty regarding the new LIAT operational strategy and, at the same time, the
need to ensure that appropriate transfer facilities are in place to encourage transfer passenger
In terms of the home market and its catchment area Antigua is lagging behind some of its key
growth the study provides a separate sensitivity analysis for the additional transfer passengers
competitors in the East Caribbean, St Maarten (1.6million passengers in 2004 or double the
to be generated by LIAT.
number served by Antigua) and Barbados (over 2 million passengers). The numbers of tourist
arrivals support these figures – St Maarten over 420,000 and Barbados 550,000 - and are The sensitivity analysis applies the increase in passengers and aircraft in 2005-2006 as per
significantly higher than 245,000 visitors to Antigua. LIAT’s new schedules and assumes a continuing growth in transfer passengers in line with the
overall passenger growth.
Both St Maarten and Barbados are served by more direct services from their respective captive
markets than Antigua and offer better facilities for transfer of passengers. There are limited
Traffic Growth Scenarios
direct scheduled services to Antigua from countries outside the Caribbean region, with the main
ones being UK, Canada and some US services serving the minority of US travellers to Antigua. The key issues (which reflect risks and sensitivities) associated with each passenger growth
scenario are outlined in Table 3.12 below:
Geographically Antigua is more centrally positioned in the East Caribbean than St Maarten or
Barbados, which should enable a more balanced hubbing operation and shorter average stage
lengths. However, the main advantage of Antigua is in the fact that it is the base for two main
regional carriers, LIAT and Caribbean Star. These airlines use Antigua as a connecting point,
alongside Barbados, for local and international traffic and co-ordinate their schedules with the
key international arrivals and departures. These two airlines effectively use Barbados as a sub-
regional hub for South East Caribbean while Antigua is a North East Caribbean hub.
The transfer passenger market in Antigua is as yet relatively undeveloped at 16,0007 or 2 per
cent of overall traffic in 2004. (For comparison, in 2004 St Maarten had 170,000 transfer
passengers or 10 per cent of overall passenger traffic). There is no information on the origins
and destinations of these passengers. Connecting passengers are expected to increase next
7
The number appears under the ‘in transit’ category in the airport statistics.
The traffic forecasts have been prepared without applying constraints imposed by terminal and
airfield capacities. They thus represent the forecasts should the airport be expanded to
Low Medium High
accommodate such growth. Should capacity not be expanded in line with demand, the actual
Tourist arrivals
Modest Strong High throughputs would necessarily be constrained to the level of terminal and airfield capacity.
growth
Three sets of forecasts – low, medium and high growth - have been produced. The following
Tourist arrivals increase at a Tourist arrivals grow in Stronger than forecast
marginally slower rate than line with third party growth in tourist
graph shows annual passenger forecasts based on the assumptions set out in previous
forecast by third parties forecasts. arrivals in line with sections:
reflecting slowing economic Government targets
growth and declining and above the 6,000,000
consumer confidence in the Moderate incremental average in the
key captive markets. impact of new home Caribbean. High
ownership 5,000,000
Boeing forecasts traffic flows within Central America to grow by 7.0 per cent per annum until In the absence of detailed passenger and ATM data and the unavailability of average seating
2024, between North America and South America by 7.2 per cent and between Europe and capacity and load factors, the study estimated the average passengers per ATM (PATM) to
South America by 5.8 per cent. forecast passenger air transport movements.
These growth rates confirm Scott Wilson’s projected growth rates to be consistent with forecast Average passengers per ATM at VC Bird International Airport have been increasing over the
aggregate growth rates for the region as a whole. This appears to be reasonable given the years: from 11 in 1980 to 15 in 1990, 16 in 1994 and 17 in 2004. This has generally reflected
balance between the relatively low level of development of air transport services in Antigua, the increasing densities of the key tourist routes and larger aircraft deployed by some of the
which suggests the potential for higher than average growth. carriers over time. It has been assumed that average PATMs will continue to increase in line
with but at a lower rate than the growth in passenger numbers. The elasticity used was 20 per
3.4.2 Annual Freight Forecasts cent, taking into account the projected rate of growth in load factors and seating capacity per
aircraft. Average PATMs for GA movements were assumed to increase gradually over time to
The following table presents freight and mail forecasts at five-year intervals: reflect the maturity of the routes and potential for bigger aircraft used on some of them.
Data availability on freighter aircraft movements is too limited to justify an overly complex
forecasting methodology. The method adopted divides total freight throughput between
Scenario/Year 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 passenger and freighter aircraft and derives future annual freighter aircraft movements by
Low 4,700 5,900 7,300 9,100 11,400 14,300
dividing the total throughput carried by freighter aircraft by an average payload per movement.
The payload was assumed to be around 5 tonnes per aircraft growing over time to 10 tonnes
Medium 4,800 6,400 8,600 11,500 15,400 20,700 reflecting the change in aircraft types used and load rates.
High 4,800 7,000 10,000 14,400 20,800 29,900 Air transport movement forecasts are summarised in Figure 3.21 and Table 3.15 below:
Table 3.14 - Annual Freight and Mail Forecasts, tonnes
250,000
Air freight is projected to grow in line with the assumptions set earlier in this report at an annual
movements
150,000
3.4.3 Annual Air Transport Movement Forecasts
100,000
Forecasts of annual aircraft movements have been prepared at five-year intervals up to 2030.
Separate forecasts have been prepared for each of the main categories of movement which
comprise: 50,000
8
The term seat load factor (LF) is defined as the percentage of an aircraft’s available passenger seats that are
occupied.
One-way arrivals design hour in 2004 was made up of 4 arrivals by Continental, BA, US Airways
and Air Canada and two small aircraft movements. The one-way departures design hour is the
Scenario 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 hour after the arrivals peak when the above aircraft return from VC Bird International to their
Passenger Low 42,700 50,700 57,000 63,200 69,900 77,400 home bases or travel on to other destinations in the Caribbean. The average number of
passengers per arriving aircraft movement in the arrivals design hour was quite high at around
Medium 43,500 56,500 70,900 87,800 108,700 134,500
140 passengers; the corresponding number for departures in the departures design hour was
High 43,800 61,200 82,400 108,800 143,100 188,200 approximately 50 passengers.
The following assumptions were made in order to forecast future peak and design day
GA Low 7,300 8,400 9,000 9,400 9,900 10,400 schedules:
Medium 7,500 9,400 11,200 13,100 15,400 18,100 • The demand for arrival and departure slots at VC Bird International in peak and design hours
High 7,500 10,100 13,000 16,300 20,300 25,300
is likely to continue to be dictated by medium to large long haul aircraft movements.
• International carriers would continue to operate and extend their services in peak and design
hours as the most convenient times of arrivals and departures to cater for the demand in
Freighter Low 200 200 200 300 300 300 captive markets and in the light of slot constraints at international airports in the UK, US and
Medium 200 200 300 300 400 500 Canada.
High 200 300 300 400 500 700 • The profile of passenger movements across future design days will reflect the existing
pattern of traffic albeit at higher passenger volumes and with some peak spreading as new
services are introduced, additional frequencies are added to existing services and some
TOTAL Low 50,200 59,300 66,200 72,900 80,200 88,100 smaller aircraft movements are moved outside peak hours.
Medium 51,200 66,100 82,300 101,300 124,500 153,000 In 2004, the number of scheduled design hour passenger movements was almost 10 times
High 51,600 71,600 95,700 125,400 163,900 214,200 higher than in the average hour at 0.13 per cent of total annual passenger movements. Under
the medium growth assumptions, this ratio is projected to reach 0.07 percent by 2030. The
Table 3.15 - Annual Air Transport Movement Forecasts projected trends in the ratio of design hour to annual air passenger movements are compatible
with the experience of other airports handling similar volumes of annual passenger traffic.
Based on the baseline schedule investigation the one-way design and peak hour is
3.4.4 Peak and Design Period Forecasts approximately 75-80 per cent of the two-way flow. Two-way design and peak hour forecasts are
projected to be around 30 per cent higher than one-way traffic.
General Passenger movements in the peak and design hours are very similar in terms of passenger
This section of the report presents peak and design period forecasts of: number, the only difference being in the direction of the flow. This confirms the fact that the
peaks at VC Bird International Airport occur regularly on certain days of the week, especially
• air passenger movements; and Saturday, for most of the year and, in particular, in the winter tourist season. Based on the
• air transport movements. baseline schedule the one-way peak hour traffic is projected to be some 10 per cent higher than
the corresponding design hour flow.
The forecasts and resulting design parameters have been generated within the context of
forecast schedules of air transport and passenger movements for typical busy days in 2004 and Design and peak hour passenger schedules are set out in the following table:
at five-year intervals from 2005 to 2030. Forecasts have been produced for each of the
alternative low, medium and high growth scenarios.
Passengers Scenario 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 ATMs Scenario 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Design hour Design hour
One-way Low 830 1,000 1,120 1,230 1,360 1,500 One-way Low 12 13 14 14 15 16
Medium 850 1,110 1,390 1,720 2,110 2,610 Medium 12 14 17 20 23 27
High 850 1,200 1,620 2,120 2,780 3,650 High 12 16 20 25 31 38
Two-way Low 1,100 1,320 1,490 1,640 1,810 2,000 Two-way Low 21 24 25 26 27 29
Medium 1,130 1,480 1,850 2,290 2,820 3,470 Medium 21 26 31 37 43 50
High 1,130 1,600 2,150 2,830 3,700 4,850 High 22 29 36 45 56 70
Peak hour Peak hour
One-way Low 910 1,090 1,220 1,350 1,490 1,640 One-way Low 13 15 15 16 17 17
Medium 930 1,220 1,520 1,880 2,320 2,850 Medium 13 16 19 22 26 30
High 930 1,320 1,770 2,330 3,050 3,990 High 13 18 22 27 34 42
Two-way Low 1,140 1,370 1,540 1,700 1,870 2,060 Two-way Low 23 25 27 28 29 30
Medium 1,160 1,530 1,910 2,360 2,910 3,580 Medium 23 28 33 39 45 52
High 1,170 1,650 2,220 2,920 3,830 5,020 High 24 31 39 48 59 73
Table 3.16 - Peak and Design Hour Passenger Forecasts Table 3.17 - Peak and Design Hour Air Transport Movement Forecasts
9
LIAT would practically double the number of its flights at VC Bird according to its new schedule. With the
originating/terminating passengers expected to record modest growth, the majority of the growth would be in
transfer passengers.
As transfer facilities are improved, the number of transfer passengers is expected to rise over movement. Changes in passenger numbers in peak and design periods are not significant and
the years in line with the overall peak and design hour passenger growth. are not believed to merit separate forecasts.
The following table sets out the projected design hourly flows of transfer passengers at VC Bird Based on the assessment of LIAT’s existing passenger traffic and the proposed changes to the
International: schedule, the incremental growth in annual passenger numbers, should the new schedule
become established, may be in the region of 60,000-100,000 passengers in 2006,
predominantly transfer passengers.
Transfer Scenario 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Two-way Low 80 110 130 140 150 170
Medium 85 130 160 190 240 290
High 90 140 180 240 310 410
Sensitivity Analysis
This sensitivity analysis provides guidance on the impact of LIAT’s new schedule, if successful,
on the parameters required for sizing of aircraft and passenger related facilities.
The previous section has taken account of the new schedule in determining the number of
design hour transfer passengers. This section attempts to estimate the impact of the new
schedule on the overall number of passengers and aircraft movements passing through the
airport in peak and design hours.
In order to do this the new LIAT schedule has been superimposed over the design and peak day
schedules for 2004 replacing all previous LIAT flights. The impact of this has been as set out in
the following table.
New LIAT
Parameter As Is Change, %
schedule
Peak Hour ATMs One-Way 12 13 8%
Peak Hour ATM's Two-Way 21 19 -10%
Design Hour ATMs One-Way 11 10 -9%
Design Hour ATM's Two-Way 20 16 -20%
Table 3.19 Impact of the New LIAT Schedule on Peak and Design Flows
The peaks of traffic in LIAT’s schedule do not generally coincide with the existing peaks. The
new schedule spreads some of the peaks and contributes to the reduction in most of the peak
and design hour ATM movements apart from the peak hour one-way flow, which increased by 1
Medium
movements. Conversely, accommodating those movements does support a substantial number
4,000,000 Low of passengers. The business case therefore for the runway widening will have to be considered
carefully should the issue arise. In the medium-term, enabling the airport to accommodate Code
3,000,000 F movements (with the exception of the widening of the runway) can be achieved at a marginal
on-cost and has therefore been adopted.
2,000,000
Low provision of the requirements of non-precision approaches regardless of any move to precision
200,000
Medium
approach requirements. The master plan layout therefore provides a phased expansion that
develops in the short-term within non-instrument requirements as currently, and enables a
High
movements
4.2. Runway
100,000
10
The only Code F aircraft that is likely to operate to and from V. C. Bird International Airport; the only other Code
F aircraft currently in operation is a heavy-lift cargo aircraft.
In order to retain the current declared distances, and provide the mandatory runway end safety
areas (RESA’s), it is necessary to extend the runway. The master plan has adopted such a 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
westerly extension.
Combined Total
This table does not include parking for private aircraft, which are to be relocated to Runway 10,
as discussed in Section 6.6.
Given the stated intentions of LIAT, Caribbean Sun and Caribbean Star, and the general long-
term trend in aircraft sizes, the regional stands are all to be of Code C dimensions, able to
accommodate Embraer and B737 side aircraft. The international stands are to comprise on one
Code F stand and the remainder Code E.
balanced against costly over provision during off-peak periods. Sizing of the passenger terminal
has therefore been undertaken on the basis of a “design hour” rather than the peak hour. 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
The following table sets out the design hour passenger demand derived from the medium 2
Floor Area (m ) 25,500 33,000 41,500 51,500 63,500 78,000
growth forecasts in the Traffic Forecast Report:
Table 4.4 - Passenger Terminal Floor Area Requirement
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total Based upon standard design norms, and the following assumptions, Table 4.5 sets out the
worst-case key functional requirements for departures:
1-way pax 845 1,110 1,391 1,715 2,115 2,605
2-way pax 1,127 1,479 1,854 2,287 2,819 3,475
Assumptions:
Regional • Retail provision per mppa (m2): 600
1-way pax 278 365 457 563 695 856 • Retail penetration: 35%
• Catering penetration: 25%
International • Catering seating utilisation: 80%
1-way pax 802 1,054 1,320 1,629 2,008 2,474 • Catering allowance per cover (m2): 1.5
• Lounge seating service standard: 70%
Total
• Lounge seating utilisation: 85%
1-way pax11 1,080 1,419 1,777 2,192 2,703 3,330
• Lounge seating allowance (m2) 1
Table 4.3 - Design Hour Passenger Demand • Lounge seating circulation (m2): 0.4
• Lounge seating miscellaneous (m2): 0.15
These design hour rates are high in comparison to other airports with similar annual passenger
throughputs, but represents the known, highly peaked nature of the airport’s traffic, with
significant busy periods on Wednesdays, Friday and in particular on Saturdays as discussed in
Section 3.2.5.
Whilst the exact area is a matter of functional design, in high-level terms, passenger terminals
are sized between 15 and 50 m2 per one-way design hour passenger. The lower end of this
range would be a low-cost terminal in Europe; and the upper end a large Asia-Pacific terminal;
adopting 30 m2/pax, the following terminal areas are estimated:
11
The combined international and regional design hour total is greater than the total design hour figure as the
three individual design hours (international, regional and total) do not coincide. The international and regional
design hours are presented individually as separate processing elements should be designed to cater for their
individual design requirements; solely considering the total design hour, could underestimate the demand for
separate elements.
Table 4.5 - Departures Key Functional Requirements In addition to the forecast growth substantial additional peak figures are anticipated for the
Cricket World Cup. During an unusual event such as the Cricket World Cup it is not
unreasonable to expect longer queues and lower services standards, although a lower service
The following table sets out the worst-case key arrivals functional requirements. offering may be detrimental to the reputation of the airport and country. This type of traffic is
likely to be hand luggage and may be possible to pre clear for certain processes.
The adjacent table sets out the immediate-term requirements. 4.6. Car Parking and Access
Three types of car parking are provided to be provided:
Current 2005 2005 Short 2007 • short-stay;
Provision Requirement Fall Requirement
• long-stay;
Check-In
• staff parking.
Desks 42 21 -21 26
Area (m2) 800 2,104 1,304 2,772
In addition, forward waiting areas for buses and taxis, and facilities for hire cars are required.
The sizing of each element is dependent upon the modal split of traffic. Historic data are not
available; therefore the following assumptions of modal split have been made:
Passport Check
Desks 4 7 3 9 Taxi/Bus Long-Stay Short-Stay Hire Car
2
Area (m ) 15 147 132 189 Drop-Off Car Park Car Park12
Regional 20% 20% 50% 10%
Customs
Desks 7 7 0 7
2
Area (m ) 100 77 -23 92
12
Private car drop-off and pick-up is partially to be facilitated through the short-term car park.
it can be seen that the boundary fence and public highway potentially conflict with the required
5. CONCEPTUAL DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS taxiway clearances for Code E.
Ideally, the future instrument parallel taxiway would be located to the north of the runway.
5.1. Constraints Drawing D109233/TXY/02 shows the centreline and associated clearance requirement for a
Code E and a Code F instrument parallel taxiway. As can be seen, either such a taxiway would
The expansion of the airport is restricted by a number of features. Although the airport is
further necessitate the reshaping of Carlisle Hill and would require the partial removal of the
topographically constrained, as discussed below, the principal constraints are those imposed by
buildings currently occupied by the Stanford Development Company and Caribbean Star. As an
operation of the runway and in particular the requirements of ICAO with respect to geometric
alternative, the parallel taxiway could be provided south of the runway, but with a capacity
layouts and obstacle limitation surfaces. In this regard the existing terminal is located closer
restriction and similar problems associated with Piggott’s Hill.
than would ideally be the case to the runway centreline and is itself a constraint to development.
With respect to the local topography, the airport is located within a constrained area. In
5.1.2 Runway 10
particular, the following restrict the potential for expansion:
• the sea to the east of the airport; A number of options would exist for the use of Runway 10. Conventionally Runway 10 would be
used for ancillary developments such as hangars, cargo and maintenance facilities. However,
• Carlisle Hill north of the runway towards the western end of the airport; as a number of operators have expressed interest to operate “FBO” services from this area, and
• the quarry and Piggott’s Hill south of the runway towards the western end of the airport; that the proposals appear on first assessment to be commercially attractive, it is recommended
that the master plan accepts Runway 10 as being allocated for such operations and therefore
• the public highway as it passes near to the runway to the west of the airport; the constraint of such operations only on Runway 10 has been adopted. See Section 6.6.6.
• the generally higher ground that rises north of the airport, including Carlisle Hill and
Coolidge; 5.2. Processing Conceptual Options
• the raised ground south of the runway and west of runway 10; In principle four concepts, with variations on each, for the expansion of the airport can be
considered. These conceptual scenarios are shown schematically in the following figure
• the US communication centre at the southern end of runway 10; and
Scenario 1. Scenario 2.
• the cricket ground and other Stanford Development Company developments north of the Develop the existing terminal and Abandon the existing terminal and
existing terminal. associated aprons to cater for all future construct a wholly new terminal zone.
In addition, it would be preferable to permit the fuel farm to expand broadly within its existing growth.
location and therefore the area of the existing fuel farm was also considered a constraint.
These constraints are shown on drawing D109233/RES/01. Whilst the constraints are not
absolute, the conceptual planning has taken account of the restrictions they impose.
Considering each conceptual option, issues with each are as set out in the following table. Whilst Layout C (drawing D109233/CON/13) is a reasonable concept, it suffers from two
weaknesses:
Scenario Positive Negative • firstly, to achieve the required number of stands, it is necessary to locate the piers and
central terminal processing unit a significant distance from the runway, placing the terminal
1 • Maximises the use of the existing • Existing terminal is inappropriate as undesirably within an area of rising ground; and
terminal the basis for all future operations
• secondly, it is not clear that this layout can be effectively extended in the future, as the sea
2 • Avoids legacy issues with existing • Highest construction cost precludes the natural further eastwards expansion of the pier and cul-de-sac units.
building.
• Requires parallel operation of existing Thus the two preferred layouts are A and B (shown on drawings D109233/CON/11 and /12
• Achieves a completely new a new facility until new facility available
respectively). Both layouts adopt a visual parallel taxiway in the short-term, but provide the
facility maximising efficiency of
operations • Investment in existing facility in the ability to incorporate an instrument parallel taxiway for future operations.
short-term is a sunk cost
Of these two, Layout B, by locating the terminal further from the runway, provides a more
3 • (no obvious benefits) • Highly inefficient airside operation advantageous area between the runway and the new terminal building for short-term operations
requiring bussing of passengers to and and longer-term capacity. This concept was therefore adopted as the preferred layout and was
from all aircraft as each gate is one- further developed with respect to the operation of the terminal as shown on drawings
way only. D109233/CON/16 and /17 (as discussed in Section6).
• Difficult transfer from existing
With reference to the processing conceptual scenarios discussed in Section 5.2, scenarios 2
operation to future arrangement.
and 3 were rejected as being inefficient, not cost effective, or impractical for phased expansion.
4 • Offers the highest service • Requires duplication of all facilities Layout B shown on drawing D109233/CON/12 effectively provides a new terminal, which could
standard to international either:
travellers
• replace the existing terminal, in which case, the existing terminal would be incorporated as a
Table 5.1 - Consideration of Processing Conceptual Options pier serving the new terminal; or
• would operate as an international facility and the existing developed as a regional terminal.
5.3. Considered Development Options
Developing the new terminal as a separate international facility to the existing terminal’s regional
In isolation none of the above scenarios provides an acceptable solution, therefore based upon function would require duplication of all process elements. This would be more expensive to
the scenarios a number of options were considered. The options shown on drawings operate and maintain and is therefore not preferred. Equally, to construct a new facility, which
D109233/CON/01 to /05 are configured for non-instrument only operations. Drawings would incorporate the existing terminal as a pier only, would require the parallel operation of the
D109233/CON/11 to /15 are similar layouts but amended to permit instrument operations. existing facility and subsequent abandonment on completion of the new facility. Therefore it is
Considering each conceptual layout: proposed that processing scenarios 1 (expansion of the existing terminal) and 4 (new
international terminal) are combined to deliver a phased expansion of the existing terminal as:
• Layout A (D109233/CON/01 and /11) shows a linear development of a new terminal building
which could operate in either of conceptual scenarios 3 or 4; • the terminal whilst the first phase of the new facility is constructed ; and
• Layout B (/02 and /12) shows a variation of the linear development which configures the • subsequently, a regional arrivals facility,
extended terminal differently to permit further stands to be accommodated within the with the new facility processing all departing passengers and for international arrivals.
obstacle limitation restrictions;
This concept is developed in the following Section.
• Layout C (/03 and /13) shows a central unit/pier terminal configuration which could operate
in either of conceptual scenarios 2, 3 or 4;
• Layout D (/04) shows a wholly new terminal and apron layout as conceptual scenario 1; and
• Layout E (/05 and /15) shows the same new terminal and apron layout as Layout D, located
to the south of the runway.
As discussed in Section 4.1.2, it is essential that the master plan enables future operation that
satisfy instrument requirements and therefore the concepts shown on drawings
D109233/CON/01 to /05 were disregarded.
It is not cost effective, or practical, to abandon the existing terminal zone and construct a fully
new facility, (as shown on concepts D and E) and therefore these options were also rejected.
ability to construct additional capacity at a preferred distance from the runway. The proposed
6. PREFERRED MASTER PLAN terminal has therefore been located to permit the necessary apron expansion within these
constraints.
6.1. Land-Use Planning and Phasing The short to medium-term non-instrument development expands regional stands immediately in
front of (south) and west of the existing terminal, into the existing equipment storage and
The master plan is essentially a land-use plan for the development of the airport. Its function is
maintenance areas. International, wide-body stands are provided to the east of the existing
to serve as a structured plan for the future provision of capacity. Certain elements are
terminal, with the proposed terminal configured as necessary to incorporate stands that comply
considered in detail, whilst others are subject to individual businesses cases, but are to be
with instrument requirements. The layouts include MARS stands to more efficiently use apron
constructed within the allocated areas as set out in the master plan.
space given that the regional and international peaks do not coincide. Longer-term expansion is
The master plan considers a phased expansion of capacity, which remains flexible to permit the to the east.
incorporation of instrument landing requirements as and when they are required.
The instrument conditions compliant apron layout uses the international, wide-body stands as for
Stages of the master plan expansion of the terminal zone are shown on the following drawings the non-instrument layout. The more onerous transitional surface imposed by instrument
at 1:5,000 scale at A3: conditions restricts the availability of stands in front of the existing terminal building. Therefore
the eastwards expansion of stands is required earlier than if non-instrument conditions remain
• D109233/GA-NI/01 – Long-Term Development Layout (Non-Instrument);
longer. The proximity of the coast to the east and the transitional surface limitations requires
• D109233/GA-NI02 – Medium-Term Development Layout (Non-Instrument); that further expansion of the international stands is to the north of the terminal pier.
• D109233/GA-NI/03 – Short-Term Development Layout (Non-Instrument); and 6.3. Airfield Simulation
• D109233/GA-I/01 – Long-Term Development Layout (Instrument) The master plan layout was modelled using an airfield simulation software package in order to
Drawings D109233/MP-V/01 and D109233/MP-I/01 show the entire airport for non-instrument identify any capacity issues with the proposed layout. In particular the implications for runway
and instrument conditions respectively. capacity of the need for aircraft to cross the runway to use the parallel taxiway was assessed.
The layout shown on drawing D109233/GA-NI/03 is the basis for the development that shall be The software package employed was SIMMOD Plus! version 2.6.0. SIMMOD is able to simulate
put in place in the immediate-term. a number of airport elements, in this case it was used to model the taxiway network, the apron
configurations and the ground movement rules developed to support the simulation.
The stages of expansion are shown as snap-shots in time; actual development, particularly of
the aprons, will proceed as required driven by passenger and ATM throughputs.
6.3.1 Modelling Methodology and Ground Movement Rules
6.2. Aircraft Pavements
The model was developed on the basis of the layout as shown on drawing D109233/GA-I/0114.
The model was tested against a forecast of the peak day schedule in 2030 based upon the
6.2.1 Runway observed schedule on 24 December 2004, which, with reference to Section 3.2.5, is the peak
day upon which the forecast planning requirements have been based. Whereas the traffic
As discussed in Section 4.2, the runway is extended by 285m to the west to enable RESA’s to
forecasts are unconstrained, the developed schedule restricted ATM’s in the peak hour to 35
be provided without a reduction in declared distances. The runway width is shown as 45m, as
reflecting the achievable capacity of a single runway airfield.
currently, though as noted, a widening may be required to 60m for Code F operations,
depending upon the business case for the introduction of such services. The taxiway network design was tested with ground movement rules consisting of one-way
sections as well as defined runway crossings and runway exits. These movement rules are
shown in Figure 6.1 and Figure 6.215.
6.2.2 Taxiways
Priority stands were set aside for regional, international scheduled, international charter, cargo
The non-instrument configurations make use of the partially constructed parallel taxiway, whilst and GA flights. Simplifying assumptions were made with respect to the cargo and GA aprons,
providing apron taxiways that form part of the parallel taxiway in the instrument layout. with the aprons modelled as simple areas on former Runway 10 and cargo area south of the
runway. The areas are shown on Figure 6.3.
It is impractical to provide a full-length parallel taxiway to the north of the runway under
instrument conditions, therefore such a taxiway is provided to the south. This taxiway also
enables access to the maintenance and support facilities that are relocated south of the runway
in the medium-term.
6.2.3 Apron 14
This layout is the most likely long-term configuration being applicable whether the airport either provides an
instrument landing system, or is required by the regulator to adopt non-precision approach requirements.
As discussed earlier, the existing terminal is too close to the runway from an ideal master 15
Note: the graphical output from the model has slightly rotated the image resulting in rectilinear lines that appear
planning perspective. In addition, the rising ground north of the existing terminal, restricts the skewed.
Regional
International Scheduled
International Charter
Figure 6.1 – Modelled Arrival Taxiway Movements Cargo
GA
Figure 6.3 – Modelled Stand Allocations
The model demonstrated that the proposed layout, with the modelled ground movement rules, is In the short-term short and long-term car parking is provided within the currently landscaped
satisfactory, but that careful scheduling is required to plan the peak periods. In particular: area immediately north of the existing terminal building.
• the number of parking stands provided is sufficient, but that during peak periods and In the medium to long-term as the demand for short-term car parking increases, long-stay
overnight, aircraft towing may be necessary to remove aircraft from active stands and parking is expanded into the car park extension north of the new terminal building. As
parking them within the support zone south of the runway; discussed above, the short stay car park is also used to handle private set-down and pick-up.
• coupled with the above, the stands designated as international scheduled and international 6.6. Support Facilities
charter stands need to be used by other types of flights to maximise apron parking efficiency
reducing delays through bussing passengers to the terminal building; and principally, Support facilities include:
• it is essential that the schedule is controlled by the airport, such that slots can be managed • ATC tower;
to ensure an appropriate spreading of the peak periods. • fuel farm
Considering the need to cross the active runway, the observed delay was as set out in Table • RFFS station;
6.1.
• airport and airport vehicle maintenance;
Daily No. of Delayed Mean Delay Maximum Delay Total Delay • equipment storage;
Crossings
(min) (min) (min) • aircraft hangars;
21 7.4 25 155.9 • aircraft maintenance;
• air freight facility; and particularly at Antigua
Table 6.1 – Observed Taxiing Delay Crossing Runway 07/25
• “FBO” services.
The maximum delay of 25 minutes is caused by one aircraft that is held at its gate due to the
6.6.1 ATC Tower
departure queue at the appropriate runway crossing being full. If this aircraft is removed the
mean delay reduces to 6.5 min. The existing tower is functional and reasonably located; it is therefore proposed to retain the
existing tower.
6.4. Passenger Terminal
Refer to discussion in Section 7 and Appendix E. 6.6.2 Fuel Farm
6.5. Car Parking and Access Given the restriction imposed by the proximity of the existing terminal to the runway and the
preference thereby derived for expansion to the east, the area currently occupied by the fuel
6.5.1 Access, Circulation and Drop-Off farm is not required for expansion of the apron. It is therefore recommended that the fuel farm is
developed within its current location.
In the short-term, the existing access and road circulation is retained. In the short to medium-
term, with a relocation of terminal functions to the new terminal, circulation is adapted as shown
6.6.3 RFFS
on the drawings. The manner of circulation is retained as currently but the main modes of
vehicle traffic are separated to improve efficiency. Thus separate roads, with set-down/pick-up Although conveniently located the existing fire station is not a satisfactory basis from which the
areas are separately provided for taxis and shuttle buses. These roads pass departures and long-term service can be expanded. It would be possible to construct a new facility adjacent to
arrivals in turn. Private vehicle set-down/pick-up is to be managed through the short-term car the current building, but in view of the operational preference for fire stations to be located on
parks in front of the terminals (the first 20 minutes of parking would be free of charge). Private the far side of the main runway from the main apron area (in order to facilitate rapid response
vehicles access the car parks without interfering with the circulation of public transport vehicles. times), it is recommended that the new facility be constructed within the support zone south of
The configuration shown retains the existing Sun printing works. The separation and circulation the runway.
of the flows is made simpler and more efficient if the printing works are removed, but as it is not
necessary to do so, they have been retained. 6.6.4 Vehicle Maintenance and Equipment Store Area
The current maintenance yard is located in the area of the immediate apron expansion.
Therefore it will be necessary to relocate these areas further west and eastwards. In the short-
term, equipment storage areas are provided as shown on drawing D109233/GA/01, in the
medium to longer term, equipment is stored east of the international pier, locating equipment
near to the wide body stands.
6.6.5 Aircraft Hangars and Maintenance, Air Freight and Flight Catering
The existing cargo facility and LIAT’s hangars are retained in the first phase of development.
Thereafter, expansion of the apron is eastwards and these facilities must be relocated.
In keeping with a preference to separate passenger processing from support operations in order
to present an improved passenger experience, it is recommended that the relocation of these
facilities and future expansion is to the south of the runway. The drawings show a schematic
layout of apron and facility zone; where the facility zone is available for building and support
facilities development.
Flight catering could be relocated south of the runway, or could be east of its current location
(into an area currently shown as long-term car parking).
With each of these relocations and future expansions, the actual configuration will be dependent
upon the developments individual operators bring forward. The maser plan’s function is to
allocate the areas in which such developments shall be permitted.
Development of the southern support zone required diversion of the Burma Road. In the short
to medium-term, such diversions are local to the development. In the longer-term, and a move
to instrument conditions and the southern parallel taxiway, revised access to the south of the
airport will be required.
The provision of FBO services plays and important role in the offering of Antigua as a country
and tourist destination. It is therefore appropriate that the master plan incorporates facilities for
such services. Two recommendations are therefore made:
1. “Runway 10” should be reserved for such operations, providing an area separated from
conventional passenger processing with ready sea and highway access; and
2. Such uses would be considered for the existing terminal facilities in the medium-term, once
the new terminal becomes the primary passenger terminal and the existing terminal is
adapted for ancillary purposes.
The consequence of the first recommendation is that future expansion of the aircraft
maintenance activities should be restricted to the dedicated support facilities zone and not to
Runway 10, for the same reason of separation of passenger process, particularly in this
instance, high-end passengers, and support operations.
Drawings D109233/GA/02 and /03 show an arrangement of GA self-manoeuvre stands
providing accommodation for up to 64 aircraft. The layouts show a phased expansion of a
configuration providing a terminal with a single stand through which the VIP’s can be processed
and a shared aircraft parking area. Whilst these layouts show one possible configuration, the
actual layouts should be derived in consultation with the providers in the market wishing to offer
such services in Antigua.
• The procurement of the shell of a new terminal building which will ultimately form the
7. CONCEPTUAL PASSENGER TERMINAL DESIGN envelop to a fully operational terminal catering for the projected growth of the airport up to
2015.
7.1. Introduction • The conclusion of this phase will provide:
Further to the discussion in Section 6 this section sets out the concept for the new passenger o Domestic arrivals through the existing terminal
terminal in the long and medium-term and how the short-term and Cricket World Cup demand is
to be accommodated. o Domestic departures through the existing terminal
Whilst the long-term configuration is readily definable, the short-term configuration, wherein the o Regional arrivals through the existing terminal
existing terminal is retained and the phase 1 new terminal is constructed, is partially a function of o Regional departures through the existing terminal
the serviceability of the existing building and the capacity of the construction industry; therefore
o Long-haul arrivals through the existing terminal
the immediate-term configuration can only be confirmed as procurement is advanced.
o Long-haul departures through the existing terminal
Having considered a number of different possible terminal development scenarios the preferred
program is set out below. o Cricket World Cup arrivals through the new terminal
o Cricket World Cup departures through the new terminal
7.2. Repair Upgrade and Remodel the Existing Terminal
In order to achieve this there will need to be a number of construction projects:
The upgrade of the existing terminal has three objectives:
• Phase 1a; Procurement stream 1 – Existing terminal:
1. to provide an acceptable level of service in the immediate-term;
o The progressive repair, upgrading and remodelling of the existing terminal,
2. to compliment the partially constructed new terminal during the Cricket World Cup; surface access and forecourt to meet the objectives set out above. The scope of
this work is set out in Appendix E. These elements of work will be grouped into a
3. to facilitate subsequent reconfiguration as the regional pier (serving the new terminal) number of separate packages.
and as ancillary office and function accommodation. • Phase 1a; Procurement stream 2 – Enabling works:
In order to limit abortive expenditure, the upgrade of the existing terminal would be kept to the o The packages of works necessary to enable the clearance of the site for the new
minimum. Appendix C describes the review of the existing terminal and Appendix E describes terminal
the works that would be required, as an ideal, to improve the capacity and function of the
existing terminal. As discussed above, the actual works to be undertaken will be driven by the • Phase 1a; Procurement stream 3 – New terminal:
capacity of the construction industry. o The procurement of the shell of a new 2015 capacity terminal building
7.3. Phased Delivery Strategy • Phase 1a; Procurement stream 4 – New terminal shell fit out:
The expansion of the new terminal has been considered in two phases: the first to cater for the o The provision of sufficient facilities within the shell to process and take
forecast demand up to and including 2015 and the second up to and including 2030. commercial advantage of the throughput of the Cricket World Cup.
The extent of pier and air-bridge access to the long-haul aircraft will depend upon the schedule
of the aircraft and the airport’s ability and desire to move aircraft around the apron. The extent 7.3.2 Phase 1b; Immediately after the Cricket World Cup:
of the pier at this stage is an estimate of this requirement. It is possible that the first phase long
haul apron could be severed by airbridges linked directly to the main terminal building. • The new terminal will decommissioned and the internal works will be completed.
The delivery of the enhanced and new terminal facilities can be divided in to two main phases, • Once the new terminal has been commissioned the existing terminal will undergo some
Phase 1 and Phase 2. The first having two sub phases, Phase 1a and Phase 1b. reconfiguration works in order that it can operate in conjunction with the new facility.
• The conclusion of this phase will provide
7.3.1 Phase 1a; Prior to the Cricket World Cup: o Domestic arrivals through the existing terminal
• The existing terminal will undergo a program of repair, upgrading and remodelling in order to o Domestic departures through the existing terminal
achieve the objectives set out above. The scope of this work is set out in Appendix E. It is o Regional arrivals through the existing terminal
intended that these packages will be delivered during 2006 and enhance the performance of
the existing terminal. o Regional check-in at the old terminal but departures through the new terminal
o Long-haul arrivals through the new terminal
o Long-haul departures through the new terminal
7.3.3 Phase 2; to increase the new terminal capacity beyond the 2015 projections:
• The new terminal will be extended to increase the capacity of all necessary and desirable
functions.
• It is assumed that upon completion of this phase the existing terminal will be demolished and
the area of land vacated will be utilised to improve the visual and security separation
between the restricted and landside zones.
• The conclusion of this whole phase will provide
o Domestic arrivals through a new part of the new terminal
o Domestic departures through a new part of the new terminal
o Regional arrivals through the new terminal
o Regional departures through the new terminal
Figure 7.1 – Phase 1 Apron Level Plan
o Long-haul arrivals through the new terminal
o Long-haul departures through the new terminal
Figure 7.4 – Phase 2 Apron Level Plan Figure 7.6 – Phase 2 First Floor Level Plan
The overhanging roof and lower height of the terminal on the public side will reduce the amount
of vertical elevation and maximise solar shading.
When departing the roof builds in height, following the process flow through the building towards
the airside, providing dramatic views towards the south east and the sea. This route is further
Figure 7.7 – Phase 1 Terminal Perspective View No. 1 emphasised by the provision of natural daylight from roof lights.
The large roof is free from internal gutters providing both a striking image and the ability to
collect rainfall for the use as grey water within the terminal. Later design stages will evaluate the
use of roof mounted electrical power generation.
The building is arranged on two main levels with a half lower level taking up the slope between
the forecourt and apron.
The node building is linked to the regional stands to the west and the long-haul stands to the
east by piers. Departing passengers will pass along at first floor levels and arriving passengers
at ground floor.
Baggage handling is accommodated at the apron level with conveyors linking to the ground
floor.
Passengers from remote stands will be received in bus lounges. Transfer facilities are provided
in the central vertical circulation and security check area enabling arriving transfer passengers to
proceed to the common departures airside lounge.
8. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Transfer passengers are not required to pay the embarkation tax.
Embarkation tax receipts were the most important revenue source in 2004 at EC$12million or
8.1. Introduction
66% of revenue. Independent calculation of Embarkation Tax receipts applying the above unit
The purpose of the financial appraisal is to assess the business case and ‘fundability’ of the charges to passenger numbers net of transfers results in around EC$3million more
proposed development programme. (EC$15million) than provided for in the budget figures for 2004. This appears to represent the
existing revenue risk reflecting on inadequate revenue collection record.
For these purposes a financial model has been developed projecting operating revenue and
cost streams and assessing the financial performance of the capital development projects.
Passenger Facilitation Charge (PFC)
The structure of the report is as follows:
The charge has been collected as of January 2005. Current levy is USD$10 or EC$27 per
• Section 8.2 – reviews the existing revenues at the airport, provides some benchmarking of passenger. Government budget projections estimate receipts to be EC$6.5million in 2005.
airport charges with competing airports in the Caribbean and sets out the key assumptions Based upon the 2005 traffic forecast and assuming 100% collection (excluding transfer
for revenue forecasting; passengers), the actual value of receipts could be in excess of EC$10 million.
• Section 8.3 – sets out the main assumptions regarding the operating revenues at VC Bird Security Reimbursement
International;
This fee is levied on airlines using a complex formula based on aircraft weight and number of
• Section 8.4 – discusses the financial appraisal of the proposed development. passengers carried by an airline over a month. The charge is in place to recover staff cost in
short-term, and in the medium to include equipment cost and come in line with international
8.2. Review of Operating Revenue norms.
Table 8.1 – Existing Landing Charge Structure Table 8.3 – Aeronautical Revenue - Summary
Landing fees accounted for EC$3.6million in 2004 or 20 per cent of overall operating revenue. Source: Budget Estimates
Parking fee constitutes 15% of the landing fee and is payable for overnight parking only. Less
than 2% of aircraft pay parking fees as airlines based at VC Bird International are exempt from 8.2.2 Benchmarking
parking charges.
Aeronautical Charges
Embarkation Tax
Average airport charges per one-way passenger have been calculated for some of the most
The structure of the existing embarkation tax is set out in the following table:
popular types of aircraft using VC Bird International and other airports in the Caribbean (DASH-
8, B737, B757, B777). These are presented as averages in Table 8.4:
Tax (EC$)
EC Nationals 35.00
Other Nationals 50.00
USD 25
Average Charge/One- Departure Relative to
Landing Fee Security Fee PFC Total Fee USD 20
Way Passenger, EC$ Tax Antigua
Antigua 5 2 27 43 76 - USD 15
Middle
Africa/
Caribbean/
Pacific
Europe
America
Total
Asia/
East
North
America
Latin
Table 8.4 – Average Airport Charges (One Way)
Source: Airport AIPs, discussions with CAAs
For a large proportion of traffic (especially long-haul) airport charges are relatively small shares
of the fares on respective routes. For instance VC Bird International charges account for only Figure 8.1 – Revenue per Passenger by World Region
around 5% of BA’s average fare from London to Antigua and therefore an increase of even 50 Source: ACI
per cent is unlikely to act as a deterrent to travel of significant increase in the overall fare.
Short and medium-haul passengers will be more sensitive to an increase in charges (given
much lower average fares) and greater price discrimination may be considered at VC Bird 8.2.3 Non-Aeronautical Revenue
International to encourage the fare-sensitive traffic growth at the expense of relatively inelastic
long-haul traffic. The following table sets out the current non-aeronautical revenues.
VC Bird International is charging significantly less than Princess Juliana Airport in St Maarten,
which has undergone redevelopment of the terminal and other facilities. This may serve as an EC$ 2004 Revenue Comment
approximate indication of how much the market can bear in charges (given the improved
Rents 1,198,917 Rents are based on low unit charges of EC$7-9/sq ft
facilities). All other airports in the table (Trinidad, Grenada and Barbados) charge less than VC
(compared to ~EC$20/sq ft charged for premium locations in
Bird International. St John’s town). Potential for significant increase with
Overall charges are not believed to be as important competitive factor among airports in the improved facilities.
Caribbean as adequate facilities. Advertising 114,160 Advertising predominantly landside, airside expansion is
possible.
Revenue
Taxi & Car Rental 50,950
The overall revenue per passenger in Antigua is currently EC$28 per passenger or USD$10.5
Red Cap Concession 1,000 Should be significantly higher if collected in full
up from below USD$8 in 2004 before the introduction of a passenger facilitation charge.
Car Parking 0 Facilities transferred to Stanford Development Co
Revenue yield per passenger at VC Bird International is in line with the average in the region as
shown in Figure 8.1. Other 5,720
Fuel Throughput Fee 560,000 Airport Management estimate as a share of overall fuel-
related Government revenue
Total 1,930,747
Overall the commercial revenue collection record is rather poor as is the standard and extent of
available facilities. With the upgraded facilities there is potential for substantially increasing the
contribution of commercial revenue. Non-aeronautical revenue accounted for around 10% of
overall airport revenue. This will decrease in 2005 to below eight per cent due to increased
aeronautical charges (introduction of the PFC). This is compared in the figure below with the
shares of non-aeronautical revenue at a regional level.
Total
Europe
Caribbean/
Middle
America
Pacific
Africa/
Asia/
East
America
North
Operations & Maintenance Building 490,000 300,000 3,000,000
Latin
Figure 8.2 – Share of Non-Aeronautical Revenue by World Region Other Insurance 2,000,000 2,000,000
Source: ACI Subscriptions 30,000 30,000
Professional services 95,200 95,200
Miscellaneous 15,000 15,000
Security services 83,850 83,850
Revenue Growth Assumptions Office ExpeUniforms 20,485 35,000 47,300 28,000 130,785
Office supplies 20,000 2,500 15,000 10,000 47,500
Equipment 30,000 30,000
Landing, parking and security reimbursement charges are projected to remain constant in real Other 100,000 100,000
terms and associated revenues are to increase in line with the aircraft movement and passenger Other total 2,180,685 37,500 146,150 168,000 2,532,335
growth. The study will test the impact of an increase in the PFC once the upgraded facilities are
Total Costs 4,894,598 2,596,886 2,827,212 4,281,590 14,600,286
available.
PFC and Embarkation Tax charges are projected to remain constant in real terms with revenues Table 8.6 – Schedule of Operating Costs
growing in line with passenger forecasts. After 2006, we assume full recovery of these charges Source: Government Budget
based on unit rate for number of passengers (excluding transfers).
Non-aeronautical revenue is projected to more than double in 2007 after the facilities upgrade. The majority of the costs are related to staff expenditure. Staff costs overall account for over
Further work to assess the extent of envisaged commercial facilities and the yields generated by 70% of all costs even though the airport personnel does not perform labour-intensive ground
airport assets is required to forecast these revenue items more accurately. In the longer term handling operations and commercial facilities are let to concessionaires. Approximately half of
non-aeronautical revenue is forecast to increase with throughput but at a lower overall growth all staff costs are undertaken by ‘non-established’ workers who are employed on flexible
rate than airport traffic. contracts. Typically staff costs would represent 25-40 per cent of costs at airports of this size
depending on the range of activities undertaken by its staff.
8.3. Review of Operating Costs
Overall operating costs in 2004-2005 are approximately EC$17 (or USD$6) per passenger. This
is broadly in line with the regional average as shown in Figure 8.3.
8.3.1 Schedule of Operating Costs
Table 8.6 summarises the schedule of operating costs incurred at the airport based upon an
analysis of the 2004 Government Budget:
USD 15 • advertising, taxi & car rental and “Red Cap” concession revenues are to more than double in
2007 following the facilities upgrade and improved collection record.
USD 10
Funding Assumptions:
• No equity funding available, 100 per cent debt funding. Drawdown when capex exceeds net
cash flow.
USD 5
• Loan interest rate of 6.4 per cent per annum. Constant loan repayment over 10 years.
Total
Europe
Caribbean/
Middle
America
Pacific
Africa/
Asia/
East
America
North
Within the revenue forecast construct, the principal constraint to capital expenditure is
Latin
appropriate phasing that remains cash positive with the debt funding repayments. Maintenance
and expansion of the existing facility has not kept pace with demand and therefore the airport
requires immediate investment to recover that shortfall; in addition the first phase of expansion
Figure 8.3 – Operating Costs per Passenger by World Region for future growth would indicate that a substantial investment is required immediately.
The proposed development and thus the capital expenditure programme have therefore been
constructed within the immediate affordable debt financing. Until 2008, the maximum capex is
Operating costs are assumed to grow at a fraction of traffic growth reflecting operating thus EC$250 million (US$ 90 million).
efficiencies and economies of scale. Routine maintenance costs are projected to step change
after the new facilities become operational. Total capex, excluding routine maintenance to 2030 is in real terms EC$ 1 billion. (Over the
same period base case revenues are in excess of EC$ 2.5 billion.)
8.4. Financial Appraisal
8.4.3 Outputs
8.4.1 Assumptions
The headline outputs from the base case model are as follows:
The following assumptions have been made: • the project Internal Rate of Return (IRR) in real terms would be 16.6% until 2030;
Revenue Growth Assumptions: • over the period to 2030 the projected revenues are sufficient to operate and expand the
airport profitably, although capex over the first ten years is limited within the available debt
• aeronautical revenues are collected in full as per the published charges; financing;
• PFC increases to EC$50 per passenger to recover the costs of the new facilities; • this is shown by the Annual Debt Service Cover Ratio (ADSCR) which improves appreciably
• landing, parking and security reimbursement charges are projected to remain constant in as the superior revenues support enhanced debt repayment ability as shown in Figure 8.4:
real terms and associated revenues are to increase in line with the aircraft movement and The average to 2030 is 1.68.
passenger growth;
• Embarkation Tax charges are projected to remain constant in real terms with revenues
growing in line with passenger forecasts. After 2006 full recovery of these charges based on
published unit rates;
• retail passenger spend is assumed to grow from EC$25 per departing passenger in 2007 to
EC$59 by 2016 reflecting the improved range of facilities and market penetration. The
airport’s commission on this revenue is assumed to be 20 per cent of gross revenue;
• catering passenger spend is assumed to grow from EC$20 per departing passenger in 2007
to EC$47 by 2016 reflecting the improved range of facilities and market penetration. The
airport’s commission on this revenue is assumed to be the same as for retail;
• car parking revenues are based on the projected provision of parking spaces and assumes
an average 20% occupancy rate (based on 24 hour operation) for the Short Stay Car Park
and 40% occupancy rate for the Long Stay Car Park. The charges are assumed to be EC$2
per hour and EC$25 per day accordingly; and
4.50 50.0%
4.00 40.0%
3.50
30.0%
3.00
-40.0%
Aeronautical
Figure 8.4 – Annual Debt Service Cover Ration -50.0% Non-Aeronautical
Typically for infrastructure projects lenders would seek a minimum ADSCR of around 1.2 for % Change in Revenue Head
“stable” projects rising to 1.5 for “recommended target” and 1.8 for ”risky” projects.
The following options may be available to improve the financial standing of the airport in the
initial stages: Figure 8.5 – Revenue Sensitivities
• reprofiling of debt service to place a greater repayment burden toward the back end of the
loan life; The total revenue can be seen to be most sensitive to aeronautical charges, reflecting, as noted
• negotiating a grace period for the first two years of operation; or in Section 8.2.3, the comparatively small share of non-aeronautical charges to total revenues.
• increasing the charges. A further increase in the PFC by a further EC$25 per passenger in 2007 thus raising
aeronautical charges per one-way passenger to over EC$115 results in total revenues
increasing to over EC$3 billion and the average ADSCR to 2.8. This, however, may represent a
8.4.4 Sensitivity Analysis significant revenue risk. The airport may therefore consider price discrimination against long-
haul passengers to avoid the reduction of the short-haul traffic base.
The viability of the expansion is associated with the forecast revenues generated from the new
terminal facilities. Figure 8.5 shows the sensitivity of total revenues to changes in aeronautical
and non-aeronautical revenues.
Appendix A
It was noted that repairs to the rendering of the roof parapets have recently been carried out at
A.1 INTRODUCTION several locations.
A visual survey of the existing Terminal Building was been carried out to assess the overall
A.4 CONCLUSIONS
condition of the structure. The survey was limited to an inspection of the visible main structural
elements of the building together with selected areas of the soffit of the first floor level slabs. No
Considering the age, the environment and the usage of the building, the structural concrete
intrusive surveys were carried out.
frame appeared to be in good condition with no significant problems, other than those areas of
Record drawings of the original construction and later extension works were made available visible deterioration, particularly where areas of concrete cover have spalled due to corrosion of
from the Public Works Department records. These drawings were used to assist the survey the reinforcement. These areas will require local patch repairs that should be dealt with as part
work and checks were made on their accuracy as records of the as-built construction. of the refurbishment proposals.
As part of the recommendations for any future long-term refurbishment of the existing building
A.2 EXISTING STRUCTURE the condition of the reinforced concrete structure should be further checked for any undergoing
chemical change, in the form of the presence of chlorides and depth of carbonation, to
The original two-storey Terminal Building was constructed circa 1981 followed by major determine the reasons for the spalling. A short programme of non-destructive tests will
extensions to the Arrivals and Departures areas circa 1994. determine whether the concrete structure is suffering from any serious deterioration conditions,
that may not be obvious from the purely visual inspection carried out to date.
The structural form of the original building and the extensions consists of an in-situ concrete
frame comprising columns on a regular grid supporting an arrangement of downstand beams There are numerous rainwater leaks into the ground floor level Arrivals and Departures areas
and slabs at first floor and roof levels. Foundations consist of simple pad footings. from the flat roof areas above. The worst of these leaks appear to occur at the movement joint
locations, which is probably due to defects in the external sealing of these joints. It was noted
The overall length of the building is 140m. Movement joints divide this length into three
that the flat roof area above Arrivals is about to have new waterproofing laid and once
separate sections. Concrete shear walls that extend from foundation to roof level provide lateral
completed this may cure the leaks into this area.
stability of each section.
The areas of cracked/damaged rendering at high levels should be carefully removed and repairs
carried out so as to avoid the danger of falling debris.
A.3 STRUCTURAL SURVEY
A.3.1 General
In general the structure of the building appeared visually to be in good condition with no major
defects being noted.
Recorded structural defects were limited to areas of spalled concrete due to reinforcement
corrosion.
Some non-structural defects were also noted; there are areas of cracked and spalling render
and also several locations where rainwater is leaking into the Arrivals and Departures Lounge
areas from the flat roof areas above.
Appendix B
The operation of the fire hydrant pump is questionable and it is understood that the when
B.1 AIRPORT INCOMING SERVICE CONNECTIONS hydrants are used around the building their pressure is borne by the APUA mains rather than
the pumps.
B.1.1 Electricity Generally the pump room is in a poor state of repair and lacks any forced ventilation making it a
health and safety hazard. Until such a time as forced ventilation is provided operatives should
The airport is served at 11KV supply via the APUA mains. The supply is via a resilient pair of
not be allowed to work in the area unsupervised and without breathing apparatus.
cables rated at 5MVA, effectively each cable is capable of taking a full 5MVA load so should one
cable fail the other would be cable of caring the load. APUA confirmed that these cables also
B.1.3 Telecoms
serve the Coolidge district, businesses on the airport road and the banks and restaurant
adjacent to the airport. The APUA were unable to confirm what loads these other users are The airport is currently served with 2 no. 250 pair copper cables and 1 no. 12 core fibre optic
taking as proportion of the 5MVA available from the cable and also the portion of the load being cable. The APUA confirm that currently the airport utilizes only 65% of the copper cable and 6
taken from the Cassada gardens primary substation. of the fibre cores. Cable and Wireless lease 2 of the 6 fibres utilised for the airport to service
their network at the airport.
The supply is transformed down to 208volts via the airports single recently installed 1.5 MVA
transformer. The transformer is sited adjacent the main switch room in the compound adjacent It is understood Virgin have a private wire connection as does ATC for Radar transmitter and air
the ATC tower. radio office.
Examination of the airport’s KW meter indicated the airport to be taking some 600 kVA (480KW It is also understood dedicated direct dial lines are available between the airport, the hospital
at 0.8 PF) at the time of inspection; discussions with the airport engineering manager confirm and fire station and also key local airports. APUA also confirm that they are able to offer point-
that the anticipated maximum demand should not exceed 700KVA. (560KW at 0.8 PF) to-point broadband at the airport.
There are currently 2no. standby generators one of 725KW capacity and one of 500KW Cable and Wireless are understood to have installed a microwave link from the airport however
capacity. These generators are not synchronised and therefore do not run simultaneously. The it is understood that the system has not yet been commissioned.
725KW (Caterpillar 1997) set is regularly used when APUA are load shedding. The second The APUA confirmed that it was acceptable for large users such as the airport to be able to
500KW set is used as a back up only in case for failure of the 725KW set. When the 500KW set install their own voice system and data systems within their demise and to connect to the APUA
is being run the Airport engineers shed the AC loads to bring the connected load within the
network as required to access the main island system.
capacity of the set.
The airport appears to rely heavily on their generators as sources of primary power therefore the
B.2 EXISTING TERMINAL MECHANICAL AND ELECTRICAL SERVICES
capacity of these sets is a potential limiting factor.
It was noted during the survey that the tented areas e.g. shops and restaurants take APUA
B.2.1 General Overview
metered supplies from the airport terminal building power distribution network. This would
suggest that unless there is an agreement in place for the airport to contra charge the APUA. The installation appears to have been installed at three different periods. The majority of the
APUA are being paid for the power used twice firstly by the airport from their meter at the infrastructure and incoming services appear original to the building circa 1981 along with the
incoming position and again for each tenant via the APUA meters taking power of the airports majority of the 1st floor services excluding Big Banana. A large proportion of the ground floor
network. services where replaced as part of the extension works circa 1994 i.e. the departure and arrivals
halls. A further upgrade would have appeared to have taken place circa 1997 where air-
B.1.2 Water conditioning was added to the arrivals and departure halls along with a new standby power set.
The mains water supply enters the terminal building via the basement pump room. The original installation was of a good standard and no doubt the building has benefited from
this throughout its life. The 1994 works again appear to have been carried out to a good
Adjacent to the pump room is a large water storage tank, which allows the airport to store water
standard but are showing signs of ageing now. The later works circa 1997 in particular the air-
as required in order to maintain supplies within the building. The tank would appear to rather
condition system would appear to have been installed to a relatively lower specification to the
large and it is questionable as to how long the water is left standing in the tanks before use.
rest of the installation and is already showing signs of premature ageing.
Ideally potable water should not be stored for in excess of 24 hours. Initial thoughts are that
water will stand in these tanks for in excess of 24 hours. The existing services installation is approaching the end of is useful working life across all three
phases and is lacking of key life safety installations such as fire alarms, emergency lighting and
It is believed that this tank can be supplied with run off water from the terminal roof, however this
fully operation hydrant system. Therefore full replacement should be considered within next 2 to
would require additional verification.
3 years with the life safety systems being replaced as soon as particularly possible. In the
The pump room also contains a triple filter set, fire hydrant pump and sump pump. meantime it is essential that sufficient funding is available to enable appropriate and necessary
maintenance.
Maintenance staff confirm that the pump room is regularly flooded and evidence to support this
is available within the room.
Public Address System No control systems for the air-conditioning system were noted during the survey.
The building is furnished with a pubic address system through out. A separate split air conditioning unit is installed in the old casino area, resulting in slight lower
temperatures but significantly lower relative humidity levels in this area.
To the human ear the intelligibility of the system is very good and the volume appears generally
acceptable. The system is used to announce flight information in lieu of a flight information
Air-Condition System – Level 2
display system. Airport staff advise that individual airline operators have their own PA
microphones that also broadcast messages in the terminal building. Generally the administration offices where provided with packaged air-conditioning systems as
part of the original build although further localised split systems have been introduced
The system is not suitable for use as a primary means to initiate a building evacuation under
particularly to ATC and the met office areas. Generally these systems appear to function well.
emergency conditions.
Air-Condition System – Airline Offices
Structured Cabling (LANS)
There are a number of airline offices behind the check in area, it is understood that it is the
Maintenance operatives confirm that there are no major airport owned and operated local area
airports responsibility to provide these offices with an air-conditioned environment.
networks within the building; however ATC, certain regulatory authorities and airline offices have
their own independent systems. A number of these offices have installed their own additional split AC units with external
condensers being installed on the airside elevation of the terminal building.
Similarly as mentioned elsewhere there are no airport owned and operated uninterruptible
power supplies however ATC, certain regulatory authorities and airline offices have their own Fire Hydrants
independent systems.
There are a number of fire hydrants located around the building although it is understood that
Lightening Protection these units will only operate at main water pressure as the pumps no longer function following
the repeat flooding of the pump room.
Lightning protection is only provided to the top of the ATC tower.
Whilst appearing limited it may be that the conductors on the tower provide via the sphere of Domestic Hot Water System
influence protection to the rest of the terminal building. Despite all toilet wash hand basin taps having a hot and cold mixer tap no hot water was present
at any of the taps tested on the survey.
B.2.3 Mechanical Services
Baggage Handling System – Outbound
Air-Condition System – Level 1: Departure and Arrival Halls
Currently there are four separate out bound baggage systems operated by individual ground
This area were extended in 1994 and designed to utilise natural ventilation via open screen handling agencies on behalf of the airlines. There are no weigh label conveyors and all bags
bricks. However an air-conditioning system was installed circa 1997. This comprises of 3no. have to manually lifted by the ground handling staff from the weight scale across on the out
chillier located adjacent to the maintenance facility and 10 no. air handling units strategically bound belts behind the check in positions.
located around the perimeter of the halls mainly in lean too type sheds on the airside façade.
From the check in position bags are transported out in to the service yard behind check in at this
Flow and return chilled water pipe work is surface mounted on the airside elevation of the point there are a number of hold baggage screening units operated by the ground handlers sited
terminal building. within small sheds. It would appear that not all bags pass through the HBS machines, which
The air handling units despite only being installed in 1997 are in relatively poor condition, this is would appear to have been out of commission for a period.
believed in part to be due to the internal quality finishes but is also contributed to by being There did not appear to be any emergency stop buttons provided to stop the conveyor belts in
installed in most cases in semi open locations as the lean too sheds are not particularly water the case of emergency.
tight. Recirculation from the conditioned space is achieved via the open screen blocks into the
conditioned space in the case of the lean too sheds and grilles within the enclosure for the Baggage Handling System –Inbound
totally indoor units.
There are two number inbound baggage carousels both of which become overloaded at peak
At the time of the survey the temperature within these areas was effectively the same as the times resulting in the “Red Caps” removing unclaimed bags and placing them on the arrivals
external environment circa 31°C. Thus suggesting that the air conditioning is ineffectual. hall floor adding to the congestion.
However it was also noted that the landside and airside doors were open for long periods.
The carousels would appear to function satisfactorily although they are reaching the end of their
It was also noted that Columbian Emeralds have an external condensing unit mounted on the useful lives.
top of their unit rather than externally to the building. Units such as this contribute to the interior
heat gains and should be installed out side the building. Again there did not appear to be any form of emergency stop facility for either conveyor.
Maintenance staff where also keen to point out the one of the three chillers was not operational
with spare part being on order for its repair, also the step up power supply transformers for these
chillers are in correctly rated causing the chillers to run inefficiently.
Vertical Transportation
There are no public vertical transportation facilities with the terminal building, which doe not
seem to be proving to be a problem at present as the majority of public activity is concentrated
on the ground floor level 1.
A new traction lift 13 person 1000kg was installed within the ATC tower in 2003 and it outwardly
appears to be in a good state for repair with many years future life expectancy subject to
ongoing maintenance being continued.
Appendix C
C.2.5 Security
C.1 INTRODUCTION
Currently documentation is checked for completeness at the point of entry to the security area.
This appendix provides an overview of the existing terminal and the condition and capacity of This is currently staffed by a single person creating yet another bottleneck. The passengers
key elements (Section C.2), and provides a commentary of the full scope of works that would be then proceed to one of two passport checkpoints and onwards to a single security screening line
required to develop the terminal to accommodate with the immediate capacity needs such as it and through to the lounge.
is able to do so (Section C.3).
The security area has insufficient ancillary space. It has one cellular room, which acts as
administration, rest area and passenger interview.
C.2 REVIEW OF CONDITION AND FUNCTION OF EXISTING TERMINAL
C.2.6 Departures Lounge
C.2.1 General This area is only approximately 700m2 excluding retail (including bar) and has insufficient seats
to be able to cater for peak demand.
The building and building services have fallen into a state of dilapidation that will require
substantial refurbishment. The existing terminal building is significantly under sized in all The main area of the lounge is in poor decorative order with years of overlaid material, ceiling
processing and most ancillary areas and has a significant detrimental effect on the impression of tiles missing and signs of drawn out maintenance.
arriving and departing passengers.
The M&E in the main lounge is poor and the level of air-conditioning is only just adequate at low
The building has also suffered from a lack of management and coordination. This has led to times and is insufficient at the peak. The small southern extension does benefit from better
adhoc additions and alterations. conditioning but can only hold around 100 passengers.
Wayfinding, branding and advertising is confused and un-coordinated. This further detracts from Toilet provision is insufficient and requires up grading.
the image of the building.
In terms of finishes these are tired but clean.
There are a number of support areas that do not follow disabled access good practice.
The area suffers from visual confusion and a lack of clear relevant information such as flight up
dates.
C.2.2 Check-In
Currently there are around 42 desks in operation. This includes the Virgin and Caribbean Star C.2.7 Departures Retail
facilities (some of the latter are not yet operating). The queuing depth to the check-in is far too
The retail offers are small and arranged in a rather dark area at the back of the lounge around
short. This needs to be in the region of 18-20m but is effectively only approximately 6-8m. This
the bar.
is exacerbated by cross circulation.
There is no common user facility. Hence all the airlines have dedicated desks. The collector C.2.8 Departures Catering
belts behind the desks are also dedicated and feed to individual screening and handling areas.
The bar is arranged centrally to the retail. It provides a bar service and seating which limits its
This adds to the ineffectiveness of the area.
patronage to the numbers that can fit around the bar length, thus blocking service and those
Toilet provision is minimal. Currently this is only an issue during long waits as passengers are who take purchases away to the lounge seats.
keen to pass through security to get within the air-conditioned areas.
C.2.9 Gate Area
C.2.3 Departures Concourse
This is confused and un-segregated and arranged at right angles to the exit to apron flow.
This area is external so that any dwell is in an unconditioned external environment. As above
Gate number identification is unclear. As with the main lounge area there is visual confusion.
toilet provision is minimal.
If more than one flight is embarking at any one time then passengers mix immediately after the
There is little shade in this area beyond the immediate roofline.
gate check, which leads to confusion, congestion and possible embarkation mistakes.
C.2.4 Tax Office The departures ramp to the apron is approximately 5m wide but in reality is a single party width
with some ability to pass.
This function is undersized and causes severe queuing back through and perpendicular to the
check-in queues16.
C.2.10 Apron Departures
After the sloped walk down from the gate area passengers then walk to the aircraft. Following
the confusion and mixing of flights post gate there are further opportunities for confusion at this
16
point with lead passenger not being provided with sufficient direction by ground staff and from
It is understood that the airport intends to revert to the practice of passengers paying tax at the point of check- passengers heading towards the wrong aircraft.
in. This is likely to length check-in transaction times but will remove a step in the process and allow passenger to
pass from check-in direct to security.
There are significant concerns regarding safety and security with the large amounts of At peak times queues from customs inspection back up into the baggage reclaim area, though
passengers walking across the live apron and mixing embarking and disembarking flights. this is in no small part due to an apparent under staffing with the majority of check points
unused.
C.2.11 Apron Arrivals There is a small administration office but the area lacks privacy for inspection areas, interview
There is a single point of entry to the terminal. This is approached either from the west by and examination rooms and staff welfare. There is also little opportunity for discrete observation
walking from the aircraft to a covered walkway or by walking across the apron directly to the by staff.
sloped covered walkway to the terminal entrance. The routes also suffer from a lack of clarity of emphasis of declaration.
There are significant concerns regarding safety and security with large amounts of passengers From the customs area passenger turn right in a narrow space to exit into the arrivals
walking across the live apron and mixing embarking and disembarking flights.
concourse. Often this flow is impeded by trolley returns.
The arrivals ramp from the apron is approximately 5m wide but in reality is a single party width
with some ability to pass. C.2.17 Arrivals Concourse
The area of concourse before arriving passengers encounter the area of departing passengers
C.2.12 Immigration is only approximately 120m2. This forces passengers to bunch and turn left (This is the 5th 90
After walking up the arrivals ramp passengers enter through a set of double doors to an area degree turn the arriving process has dictated).
and a left turn to the immigration desks. At this point there is a lack of clear graphic information This area, which is external and hence unconditioned, is also occupied by tour company desks,
directing passengers to either transfers (there are redundant signs to a closed route), land card
individual representatives, taxi drivers and the taxi dispatch desk, a hire car office, telephones,
completion or directly to immigration.
trolleys and meeters and greeters.
Immigration itself has 8 desks. Some of these are identified as fast track and nationals.
This area is too small and confusing with passengers trying to orientate themselves with all their
The environmental conditioning in this area is poor. The level of air-conditioning is only just baggage in an unconditioned space.
adequate at low times and is insufficient at the peak.
C.2.18 First Floor Offices
C.2.13 Transfer These are generally in an operational but dilapidated condition. Many offices suffer from
Once the transfer desks have been located there is an administration desk and approximately substandard daylight and environmental conditioning.
40m2 of concourse.
Signs and wayfinding is uncoordinated.
Once through the administration process passengers then pass through a dedicated door to the
security process post passport check. C.2.19 Landside Restaurant
A domestic transfer (from Barbuda) would need to pass through the immigration line (even This is a popular area given that it is the only catering offer.
though they are nationals) and pass through customs (explaining their situation) and walk
The restaurant appears to operate well but is seriously under sized during the departing peaks.
around and join the queue to security.
C.2.20 Fabric
C.2.14 VIP Reception
Despite the efforts of the maintenance team the building has fallen into a state of decline that
The VIP reception is a small room directly off the immigration hall and requires the VIP to be
will require substantial refurbishment.
greeted and led to it in order to find it.
There are areas of concrete spalling in some places have been decorated.
C.2.15 Baggage Reclaim There are numerous leaks through the fabric with the worst area being from the terrace outside
The route through reclaim from immigration to customs is a right angle. the landside restaurant.
The area contains 2 baggage reclaim belts. There has been little aesthetic control on the building. As a result it appears tired and in poor
condition. The lack of coordinated and design control of fixtures and fittings has added to the
The environmental area of reclaim is the same as immigration and suffers from the same
uncared for appearance.
problems. However the density of population in the reclaim can outstrip that of immigration or
even the main departures lounge. As with the majority of the terminal natural ventilation grills Applied stonework is in good visual condition and generally seems sound.
have been closed off with perspex to prevent mosquito entry and to hold in the conditioned air Some areas of the roof have recently been recovered. However there are still a large number of
provided. areas that show signs of leaks.
C.2.16 Customs
The customs inspection area is completely open to the reclaim area.
Appendix D
D.1 INTRODUCTION
Destination Distance
This Appendix considers the runway length that should be provided under two operational (km) (nm)
requirement scenarios. In addition, the requirements for runway strips and runway end safety
areas (RESA) are considered. North America
New York 2,900 1,600
The two operational conditions considered are:
Toronto 3,400 1,900
1. essentially as current, with the most onerous routes being to European destinations; and
2. representative of potential future requirements and in particular the ability to operate non- Europe
stop flights to China.
London Gatwick 6,600 3,600
The analysis has been based upon the charts published by Boeing and Airbus in the respective Manchester 6,500 3,500
Airplane Characteristics for Airport Planning manuals. The charts are approximations of a
Milan Malpensa 7,200 3,900
complex set of operational parameters and represent estimates of the required runway lengths
only. The actual required runway lengths can only be established by individual operators as
ultimately the requirements are based upon operational standards that vary from airline to Asia
airline. The results of this analysis must therefore be confirmed before the conclusions are
relied upon. Beijing 13,700 7,400
Section D.2 sets out the operational requirements of a range of aircraft serving Europe and Table D.1 – Distances to ANU from Selected Destinations
China establishing take-off and landing runway length requirements. Section D.3 presents the
Note: distances rounded up to the nearest 100 nm or km.
development options that achieve the required declared distances and RESA’s. Section D.4
presents the summary of the analysis and recommended planning scenario.
This analysis has adopted London Gatwick and Beijing as being representative of the sector
lengths the runway should be designed to accommodate. Therefore ranges of 3,600nm and
D.2 OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS 7,400nm have been considered for current and future operations respectively.
Destinations and Sector Lengths Currently the fleet serving long haul services to Antigua is represented by B747, B757, B767,
B777 and A340 aircraft. Of these aircraft, the B747 and B777 have been considered as typical
aircraft that will be in operation for the master plan study period.
Antigua currently serves a number of destinations in North America and Europe. Potentially it
may in the future serve more distant destinations, most notably China. For the purposes of this In addition the analysis has considered the implications of the A380 operating both within the
analysis, it has been assumed that services will operate to Beijing. current operational scenario to Europe and in the future to China.
The following table sets out sector lengths to selected destinations; making normal assumptions
over divert requirements, etc. Operational Assumptions
The following assumptions have been made in determining the runway length requirements:
• wet runway;
• 35°C temperature;
• maximum passenger load, at the seating configuration giving a greater number of higher
D.2.3 Planning Parameters
class seats; and
Considering the two planning scenarios set out in section D.1 and the summary of lengths as set
• maximum flap settings for landing
out in Table D.2 above, the following planning parameters were therefore adopted:
D.2.2 Results of Performance Analysis 1. current scenario: runway length of 2,500m required;
The analysis considered, for each aircraft, the operational take-off weight required for a full D.3 DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
passenger load for each route. On the basis of that take-off weight, the required runway length
was determined.
D.3.1 Design Parameters
In each case the charts published by Boeing and Airbus in the respective Airplane
Based upon the foregoing analysis and ICAO requirements, the following parameters were
Characteristics for Airport Planning were inspected. The charts are approximations of a
adopted to develop the layout of the runway and associated elements:
complex set of operational parameters and represent estimates of the required runway lengths
only. The actual required runway lengths can only be established by individual operators as
• length available for the ground roll of aircraft (TORA18) as stated in section D.2.3;
ultimately the requirements are based upon operational standards that vary from airline to
airline. The results of this analysis must therefore be confirmed before the conclusions are
• width of runway strip: 150m either side of runway centreline, as required by ICAO for an
relied upon.
instrument, Code 4 runway;
Landing • length of runway strip beyond end of TORA: 60m, as required by ICAO for an instrument,
Code 4 runway;
In each case the most onerous condition was a forced landing at maximum landing weight
immediately following take-off. This condition would require emergency dumping of fuel. • length of RESA: 240m as required by ICAO for a Code 4 runway;
The following table presents the required runway lengths: • width of RESA19:
Aircraft Destination Take-Off17 Landing o 90m should the RESA be constructed into the sea in the current operational
scenario;
(m) (m)
B747 LGW 2,300 2,200 o 120m should the RESA be constructed into the sea in the future operational
scenario as the A380 would require the runway to be widened to 60m width; and
B747 BJS 3,160 2,200
o and 150m should the RESA be constructed over current land areas.
Drawings D109233/RL/01 and RL/02 show potential layouts providing the required runway
A380 LGW 2,300 1,900 lengths for the current and future operating scenarios respectively. The following sections
A380 BJS 2,740 1,900 discuss each option.
18
TORA: Take-Off Run Available.
19
ICAO requires that a RESA is twice the width of the runway and recommends that it should be as wide as the
associated cleared and graded area (150m). Considering construction into the sea, it would be proposed to
construct the RESA to the lesser dimension to restrict the impact on the marine environment. It should be borne
17
The actual distances will vary depending upon the actual cargo load carried. in mind though, that the full width might have to be provided.
and 1,600m for Layouts C to F. However, the area of water over which a clearway is declared
Current Operations (Drawing D109233/RL/01 – Layouts A and B) must be under the control of the airport authority and would require demarcation to prevent
access by water borne craft.
The current runway length is 2,737m with 60m strips to each end; neither undershoot nor
overshoot RESA’s are provided. D.4 CONCLUSION
Layout A shows a configuration that accommodates the required eastern RESA within the
existing land boundary. This achieves a TORA of 2,462m for the preferred take-off Runway 07. In order to provide the required runway length it is necessary to extend the runway either
This is 38m short of the design requirement. Layout A also shows that to make maximum use of westwards or eastwards. The issues with these two extension options are as set out in the
the existing runway for landing on Runway 07, it is necessary to extend the RESA 181m beyond following table.
the current observed boundary20. The western RESA could be accommodated within the Direction of Positive Negative
existing boundary, by reducing the available runway length by 181m. This would reduce the
landing distance (LDA21) for Runway 07, but only to 2,281m, which satisfies the design Extension
requirement. Westwards • Does not require • Requires local
reclamation of the sea. earthworks
Layout B shows a configuration that provides a western RESA within the current boundary and
an eastern RESA, fully extended from the current runway end into the sea. This layout provides • Relocates the runway
a TORA 2,737m (as currently defined) for Runway 07, a TORA of 2,565m from Runway 25 and thresholds further from the
LDA’s in both runway directions of 2,565m, satisfying the design requirements. hills north and south of the
runway, lessening their
Although Layout A (as extended by a further 38m) and Layout B as presented satisfy the design impact.
requirements stated in section A.2.3, they shorten the declared distances from those currently
• Does not require additional
provided22. It is probable that the airlines would wish to see the preservation of at least the
land purchase
current distances in both runway directions, in which case Layout A would require an extension
of 275m and Layout B of 172m; each could be in either direction. Eastwards • Does not require additional • Requires reclamation
land. of the sea.
Future Operations (Drawing D109233/RL/02 – Layouts C to F)
Table D.3 – Runway Extension Options
In order to accommodate the potential future non-stop operations to China it is necessary to It is essential in the immediate term to comply with ICAO requirements with respect to RESA’s.
extend the runway to a TORA of 3,200m. It is not necessary to extend the runway in order to The western development option (Layout A) achieves this and avoids the need to develop into
accommodate operation of the A380 to London Gatwick although it is necessary to widen the the sea. However Layout A does not achieve the current declared distances. To do so would
runway to 60m plus 7.5m shoulders. require a western runway extension of 285m and a similar increase in additional land take to a
total of 456m (as shown on drawing D109233/RL/03). Layout B permits the currently declared
Layout C shows all necessary development to the west; Layouts D to F require whole or partial TORA to be achieved for the preferred take-off runway (07), but at the expense of extending into
development into the sea to the east. Fully extending to the west (Layout C) requires an the sea to the east.
extension of 919m, whereas extending only to the east (Layout D) requires an extension of
880m into the sea. Although Layouts A and B provide sufficient runway length to accommodate operation of the
A380 to London Gatwick, it would be prudent to safeguard extension of the runway to a length
D.3.3 Clearway that would permit operations to the potential future market of China. Thus a longer-term
development to the longer and wider runway and runway strip configurations on drawing
The potential benefits of declaring a clearway have not been considered, as it is not possible to D109233/RL/02 should be planned.
do so from the simplified charts publicly available from the aircraft manufacturers. It may be that
combinations of TORA and clearway (TODA23) could enable a shorter TORA to be declared. In the short-term Layout B achieves the required runway definition at the expense of reclaiming
an area of the sea. It would be the preferred option but for the environmental and financial cost
In particular, considering the preferred take-off runway (07), a clearway is readily achieved over of such an activity.
water and could extend to a maximum of half of TORA, i.e. 1,231m for Layout A, 1,368m for B
Were Layout B to be adopted in the short-term, Layout E would be the natural development in
20
the medium-term.
The boundary is not shown on the 1995 survey and has been estimated from the satellite photograph.
21
LDA: Landing Distance Available. Conversely, Layout A (as extended and shown on drawing D109233/RL/03) in the short-term
22
Although those distances, not permitting RESA’s are not in accordance with ICAO’s requirements. and Layout C in the medium-term are the preferred options avoiding reclamation of the sea.
23
TODA: Take-Off Distance Available: TORA plus clearway.
Given that the construction cost is higher with regard to reclamation of the sea and with it the
environmental and therefore political costs are higher too, it is recommended that the preferred
option is to extend to the west.
The two stages of this expansion are shown on drawing D109233/RL/03. The layout shows that
an immediate runway extension of 285m is required. The drawing also shows the same runway
extension under instrument conditions, where it will be noted the increase width of the western
RESA shortens the declared runway. Therefore it would be appropriate at that time to extend
the runway to maintain the declared distances.
However the length of that runway extension would be driven by the operational need. Either it
would be of 32m to preserve the 2,737m declared distances, or it would be to achieve the
3,200m runway as shown on Layout C.
Appendix E
E.1 INTRODUCTION
2007 Possible
Requirement
Requirement
2005 Short
2007 Short
Provision
Upgrade
This Appendix discusses the works that would be required to maximise the capacity of the
Current
2005
2007
Fall
Fall
existing terminal, however, with reference to Section 7 it is not anticipated or recommended that
the full scope of works is undertaken.
Immigration
Desks 8 14 6 14 8 -6
Area (m2) 325 2,590 2,265 2,590 835 -1,755
Baggage Reclaim
Belts 2 6 4 6 4 -2
Area (m2) 250 553 303 553 600 +47
Customs
Desks 7 7 0 7 7 0
Area (m2) 100 77 -23 92 90 -2
Table E.1 – Immediate-Term Key Functional Requirements
E.2.2 Check-In
The current design requirements would imply that some 20 desks are required whereas the
current terminal has around 42. The figure of 20 however assumes a CUSS system to be
operating. Therefore, with the existing desk arrangement retained a further temporary
arrangement would be required to provide additional check-in desks. This could be provided
through self-check-in facilities freeing the existing desks to accommodate more easily the full
service check-in passengers.
The forecast requirement in 2005 is for 2No. machines would result in a 20m maximum queue,
E.2.2 Departures Concourse which would be reasonable. In 2007 however a further machine would be needed to maintain
The current arrangement could be improved by the demarcation of drop-off in line with the this level of service.
existing canopy. In order to provide the proper check-in depths required the building would
It should be noted that currently there is only about a 6m queue length between Passport Check
need to be extended north by as much as 11m and the forecourt by 4m and this should be
and Security.
safeguarded as a minimum. This configuration is shown in Figure E.1 below:
A solution to increasing the capacity in this area would be to expand the search area to the east
into the areas currently occupied by the office and the western lounge retail units. This would
result in the loss of the revenue from these units but would allow a better arrangement with the
potential of 3No. machines.
The length of queue between Passport Check and Security would increase and it would also
open up the lounge generally.
Currently there is only one room serving as interview, office and welfare. The provision of
welfare should be elsewhere in the building and ideally two small rooms provided one for
office/interview and the other a dedicated interview room.
E.2.12 Transfer
As noted above if the reconfiguring of search is implemented this would give rise to the potential
of a new and earlier improve route.
Drawings