POPULATION FORECAST

Ward No: Ward Name:

The Population of Three Decades
S.No Name of Village Population
Year 1991 2001 2011
691 716 875

DESIGN OF POPULATION
1 Calculation by Arithmetic Increase Method

Increase in
S.No Year Polulation Population (X)
1 1991 691
25
2 2001 716
159
3 2011 875
Total 184
Average increase per decade (X)= 92
The future population are computed by using
PN Population in forecast year
PN = PO+(N x X) PO Population in Last Census
N No. of next decade
X Average Increase
Population in base year 2019 = 949
Population in intermediate year 2034 = 1087
Population in ultimate year 2049 = 1225

2 Calculation by Geometric Mean Method

Increase in % increase in
S.No Year Polulation Population (X) Population (R)
1 1991 691
25 3.62
2 2001 716
159 22.21
3 2011 875
The Geometric Growth rate ( R )= (a x b)1/2 = 8.96 %
PN Population in forecast year
N
PN = PO(1 + R/100) PO Population in Last Census
N No. of next decade
R Percentage increase in Population
Population in base year 2019 = 937
Population in intermediate year 2034 = 1066
Population in ultimate year 2049 = 1212
3 Calculation by Incremental Increase Method
Increase in
Population
S.No Year Polulation (X) Incremental Increase (Y)
1 1991 691
25
2 2001 716
159 134
3 2011 875
Average increase per decade (X)= 92 134
PN Population in forecast year
PN = PO + N x X + {(N(N+1)} x Y/2 PO Population in Last Census
N No. of next decade
X Average Increase
Y Incremental Increase (Y)
Population in base year 2019 = 1045
Population in intermediate year 2034 = 1595
Population in ultimate year 2049 = 2447
AVERAGE OF THREE METHODS
S.No Mothods of Forecast Expected Population in
Intermediate % of Increase from
Base Year Year Ultimate Year
2019 2034 2049 2011
1 Arithmetic Increase Method 949 1087 1225 40.00
2 Geometric Mean Method 937 1066 1212 38.51
3 Incremental Increase Method 1045 1595 2447 179.66
Average of three Methods 977 1249 1628 86.06
Population of the Village is increasing rapidly. The average Populaton growth rate is ……% per decade come
through average of three methods, which is very near to average growth rate of Bihar ……..% is adapted
here for population forecasting.")

S.NO Year Population

1 Initial Year 2019 977
2 Prospective Year 2034 1249
3 Ultimate Year 2049 1628
S.No Population Adopted for Design % Increase
Population in Census Year 2011 875 from 2011
Population in Base Year 2019 977 11.66 % Increased
Population in Intermediate Year 2034 1249 42.78 % Increased
Population in Ultimate Year 2049 1628 86.06 % Increased
As per norms the Population is to be fed through House connection @70 LPCD including 15% unaccounted
flow of water. Demand of Water for Initial, Intermediate and Ultimate stages are as under:

S.No Year Population Demand

@80.5 ≈81 LPCD in MLD
1 Population in Census Year 2011 875 0.071
2 Population in Base Year 2019 977 0.079
3 Population in Intermediate Year 2034 1249 0.101
4 Population in Ultimate Year 2049 1628 0.132
 POPULATION PROJECTION SUMMARY
Ward No: Ward Name:

Year APM GPM IIM Adopted

Avg. three

1991 691 691 691 691

2001 716 716 716 716
2011 875 875 875 875
2019 949 937 1045 977
2034 1087 1066 1595 1249
2049 1225 1212 2447 1628

Future Population Projection

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

APM GPM
IIM Adopted
 DESIGN OF HIGH YIELDING T-WELL
Ward No: Ward Name:
Water Pumping Duration 8 Hour/Day
Population in IntermediateYear Year 2034 1249
Per Capita Water Demand 81 lpcd
Total Water Demand in Year Year 2034 101196 Ltr/Day
0.0035 m3/sec

Discharge of Tube-Well is kept 1.5 times of the discharge of pump so as to draw only 70% Discharge. but
the Pump for the longer life of the bore.
Discharge required through pump 0.0035 m3/sec
Discharge required through T. Well 0.0053 m3/sec
Assuming the velocity of flow in the tube 1.2 m3/sec
Area of Tube Well = (Discharge/Velocity) 0.0044 m2
Diameter of the Tube = √(4xA/π) 0.0748 m
say ≈ 0.100 m
Hence provide one No. of 150mm x 100mm Tube well size
Length of stainer
Discharge of Tube-Well (Q) 0.0053 m3/sec
Radius of the cone of influence (R) 400 m Assumed
Radius of the Tube-Well (r) 0.05 m
Depress on Head (Draw Down) (S) 1.5 m
Permeability Co-efficient for sand (K) 0.0003 m/sec

Length of Stainer (H)=

2.3 x Q x Log10R/r = 16.74 m
2xπxKxS say ≈ 30 m
Details of Tube-Well
(1) Dia of Housing Pipe 0.15 m
(2) Dia of Casing & Screen Pipe 0.100 m
(3) Length of Housing Pipe 30 m
(4) Length of Screen Pipe 30 m
(5) Percentage of the opening area of screen 15 % of total screen area
As per report of test boring for measuring
(6) Over all Depth adquifer layer & height
 DESIGN OF RISIG MAIN
Ward No: Ward Name:
Water pumping Duration 8 Hour/Day
Per Capita Demand 81 lpcd
Intermediate Year Year 2034
Desing Year & Design Population Year 2049 1628
Discharge (Q) 131868 ltr./day
0.0046 m3/sec
Design of Rising Main
Lea Formula (D),economcal dia.
D= (0.97 x 1.22 √Q)
Dia of Rising Main =1.0√Q 0.068 m
*Assuming constant value 1.0
say ≈ 0.075 m
Considering Project Life 30 Years
Dia of Rising Main (DR) 75 mm HDPE Pipe
Checking for the safe velocity in Rising Main
The actual velocity of flow in Rising Main= Q x4 x 7
D x DR x 22
R

VR = 1.036
The economical velocity is 0.8 ̴ 1.04 m/sec
Hence it is safe
 DESIGN OF MOTOR PUMP
Ward No: Ward Name:
Water Demand in Intermediate year Year 2034 101.196 KLD
Duration of Pumping Year 2034 8 Hrs.
rate of pumping 12.65 Kl/Hr
0.0035 Kl/sec
3.514 LPS
Calculation of Head
a) Sub soil water level 13.5 m
b) Draw down created during pumping 1.5 m
c) Frictional loss in pipe and treatment unit 8.0 m
d) Residual head required to the pump 12.0 m
= 35.0 m
Taking efficiency of Motor Pump-- 70%
WQH
B.H.P of Motor Pump = 75 n
= 2.343 HP
say ≈ 3 HP
Considering life of Motor Pump 15 years
Hence, One no. of Submersible Pump of 3 HP
For Discharging 3.514 LPS
Capacity acting against a total head 35.0 M head
Provide in both the Present and Intermediate stage
Hene, shall provide one no. 3 HP Submersible Pump
 CALCULATION OF CAPACITY OF IRON REMOVAL PLANT
Ward No: Ward Name:
As per CPHEEO manual on water supply and treatment published by the Ministry of Urban Development
Department. Government of India in May 1999, the design period of water treatment Unit is 15 years only.

Hence, Capacity of proposed Iron Removal Plant (IRP) has been calculated for Intermediate Year requirement.

In Intermediate Year Water Demand = 101.196 KLD

Pumping Hour 8 Hours
rate of pumping 12.65 KLPH
Say: 8 KLPH
8 KLPH Capacity of IRP may be provided

DESING OF CHLORINATOR
Per Capita Demand 81 lpcd
Water Requirement on Base Year Intermediate Year Ultimate Year
2019 2034 2049
Population 977 1249 1628
Total Water Demand (Qw) 79137 101196 131868 Ltr./Day
79 101 132 M3/Day
Water is Ground water therefore Dis-infection of water is required.
Asuming Chlorination dose (Dcl) 0.5 PPM
Year 2019 Year 2034 Year 2049
Chlorine Demand = Qw x (0.5PPM/1000000) 0.04 0.05 0.07 KG/Day
Assuming 25% of Chlorine contained in powder (P cl)

Quantity of Bleaching (Qbl) Year 2019 Year 2034 Year 2049

Qbl = Dcl /Pcl 0.16 0.20 0.26 KG/Day
57.77 73.87 96.26 KG/Year
Capacity of Chlorination Plant (C pl)
Capcity of chlorinator for 2% strength of solution P sl
Year 2019 Year 2034 Year 2049
Cpl = Qbl /Psl 7.91 10.12 13.19 Liter

Say 25 25 25 Liter

Considering life of plant = 15 years

Chlorination plant of 25 liter capacity is proposed to be installed