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Solving the Puzzle of the September 2018 Palu, Indonesia, Tsunami Mystery:
Clues from the Tsunami Waveform and the Initial Field Survey Data

Article  in  Journal of Disaster Research · November 2018

DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2018.sc20181108

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 Solving the Puzzle of the September 2018 Palu, Indonesia, Tsunami Mystery:
Clues from the Tsunami Waveform and the Initial Field Survey Data

Disaster Letter: sc20181108

Solving the Puzzle of the September 2018 Palu, Indonesia,

Tsunami Mystery: Clues from the Tsunami Waveform
and the Initial Field Survey Data
Abdul Muhari∗1 , Fumihiko Imamura∗2,† , Taro Arikawa∗3 ,
Aradea R. Hakim∗4 , and Bagus Afriyanto∗1
∗1 Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries
Jl. Medan Merdeka Timur No.16, Jakarta, Indonesia
∗2 International Research Institute of Disaster Sciences (IRIDeS), Tohoku University, Miyagi, Japan
† Corresponding author, E-mail: imamura@irides.tohoku.ac.jp
∗3 Chuo University, Tokyo, Japan
∗4 Botram Ocean Technology Research and Management, Bandung, Indonesia

[Received October 11, 2018; accepted October 18, 2018]

On September 28, 2018, following a magnitude 7.5

strike-slip fault earthquake, an unexpected tsunami
inundated the coast of Palu bay, Sulawesi, Indone-
sia, causing many casualties and extensive property
damage. However, the earthquake’s mechanism rarely
generates a destructive tsunami. The tidal record at
Pantoloan, located along the coast of Palu bay, indi-
cates that the tsunami arrived 6 min after the earth-
quake and generated 2 m of receding water. It had
a maximum wave height of 2 m and arrived approx-
imately 2 min later. The tsunami had a relatively
short period and caused devastation as far inland as
300 m. Additionally, 8 m high watermarks were ob-
served near the coast; the flow depth decreased to Fig. 1. The results of field survey data showing the height of
3.5 m inland (Fig. 1). Amateur videos and eyewitness the splash wave (red) and the flow depth (blue) in Palu bay
accounts indicate that the tsunami did not enter the before the tidal correction, projected onto Google Earth.
bay through its mouth but obliquely from an area in-
side the bay. Our hypothesis, therefore, is that the
killer tsunami was most likely generated by an un- a flow depth of 8 m and height of 10 m as maximum.
derwater landslide occurring inside Palu bay. While Because the earthquake was not the typical tsunamigenic
detailed bathymetric data are still needed to confirm earthquake, there is uncertainty regarding the generation
this hypothesis, in this article we provide a prelimi- mechanism of the resulting tsunami, which claimed at
nary analysis of the available data, supported by the least 1,944 lives as of October 10, 2018.
results of a field survey, to strengthen this hypothesis A brief post-tsunami field survey was conducted during
and provide direction for further post-tsunami surveys the period of October 4–6, 2018 to discover its possible
and analysis. generation mechanism. The goal of the survey was to ob-
tain information about the tsunami height, flow depth, in-
undation distance, damage characteristics, and eyewitness
Keywords: earthquake and tsunami, Palu, field survey, accounts. In the following sections, a brief analysis of the
disaster science tidal data and findings from the field survey, along with
preliminary conclusions regarding the tsunami’s possible
generation mechanism, are presented.
1. Introduction
A strike-slip fault earthquake, whose epicenter was lo- 2. Tidal Gauge Data Recorded at the Two Sta-
cated in northern Donggala District, Central Sulawesi, In- tions
donesia, triggered an unexpected tsunami inside Palu bay.
Located 50 km southeast of the epicenter, the tsunami had Along the coastline surrounding the earthquake were
two tidal data stations – Pantoloan and Mamuju ports

Journal of Disaster Research Vol.13 Scientific Communication Online, 2018 1

Muhari, A. et al.
Fig. 2. Tsunami records at two stations [1], showing the ar-
rival time, wave period and heights. These data might not be
generated by the displacement due to the faults originating
from the main shock.
(Fig. 2). The first appearance of the tsunami occurred at
Pantoloan port, on the coast of Palu bay, where the tidal
gauge registered a trough 6 min after the earthquake, gen-
erating 2 m of receding water. The peak of the wave ar-
rived 2 min later, generating a 2 m tsunami [1]. The arrival
of the tsunami so soon after the earthquake indicated that,
although possibly generated near the bay, the tsunami was
most likely generated inside the bay. The short period of
the tsunami wave implied that it had been generated by a
relatively small, localized source.
The second tide gauge was located 300 km to the south
at Mamuju City. Here, the tsunami arrived only 18 min
after the earthquake. Makassar Strait, which connects the
earthquake epicenter with Mamuju City, has a moderate
depth of approximately 2000 m. Therefore, a tsunami
traveling with an estimated speed of 250 km/h requires
at least 1 h to travel the length of Makassar Straight at
a speed of 250 km/h. Together, these facts indicate the
tsunami that generated the signal at Mamuju tide station
was not due to the aforementioned strike-slip earthquake
but had a source close to the Mamuju tidal station inside
Palu bay.
3. Field Survey Data/Information
The survey team consisted of four scientists from In-
donesia and Japan who collected field survey data along
Talise beach, located at the endmost of the bay and in the
area on the east side of the bay. They discovered that a
splash wave with an inundation distance of 50 m and a
maximum flow depth of 8 m from ground level of 2 m and
10 m from sea level arrived shortly after the earthquake,
as stated by eyewitnesses. Further inland, a 1 m high wa-
termark was discovered on a wall inside a house, showing
an inundation depth of 1 m. However, outside the house,
water marks showed a flow depth of 3.5 m. Although the
inundation distance of the tsunami was 300 m, the dam-
ages were concentrated within 200 m from the coast, as
2 Journal of Disaster Research Vol.13 Scientific Communication Online, 2018
Photo of the 2011 Tohoku
Splash
tsunami at Yamamoto
Inundating flow
Splash trace
wavedepth
runup
Tidesealevel Inundation
attheevent groundelevation flowdepth
M.S.L.
distancefromshoreline;50m– 100m
distancefromshoreline;200m– 300m
Fig. 3. Cross section of the tsunami and the topography
at the Palu station, along with splash wave/inundation flow
depths.
shown in Fig. 3.
At Pantoloan port, on the east side of the bay, a large
vessel, 50 m in length, was found where the inundation
depth had been approximately 2 m and the ground height
(height from sea level) was 2.3 m, giving an inundation
height of approximately 4 m. However, the inundation
distance was 180 m, suggesting the length of this tsunami
seems to be short. When questioned, the local residents
reported that the tsunami had arrived shortly after the
earthquake motion.
4. Summary
We found that the tsunami in Palu bay had a relatively
short period, as observed at Pantoloan port. It arrived
shortly after the earthquake and possessed a maximum
flow depth of 8 m and an inundation distance of 50 m,
within which much damage occurred. The flow depth of
the tsunami decreased rapidly when it reached dense de-
velopment 150 m inland. Inside the houses the tsunami
had a flow depth of 1 m only. These findings suggest that
the tsunami was likely generated by an event other than
the strike-slip earthquake, that it was located near the im-
pacted areas, and that it had a relatively small, localized
source. The tsunami was likely generated in shallow wa-
ter, and along Talise beach it was amplified and became a
splash wave. Although the earthquake damaged structures
close to the shore, it did not have enough energy to pene-
trate further inland. Further information about the source
of this destructive tsunami is available on the web in the
form of a video taken at Palu bay during the tsunami [2].
Acknowledgements
We thank the Minister of Marine Affairs and Fisheries of Indone-
sia, Ms. Susi Pudjiastuti, and the Director General of Marine Spa-
tial Management, Mr. Brahmantya SP for supporting the post-
 Solving the Puzzle of the September 2018 Palu, Indonesia, Tsunami Mystery:
Clues from the Tsunami Waveform and the Initial Field Survey Data

tsunami survey in Palu. We also thank the Indonesia Agency for

Meteorology, Geophysics and Climatology for collaboration dur-
ing the survey in Palu. The videos/photos taken at Palu bay during
the tsunami are available on the web [2], and are available as a ref-
erence on the source of the destructive tsunami.

References:
[1] Indonesian Agency for Geospatial Information (BIG), “Real
Time Tidal Observation,” http://tides.big.go.id:8888/dash/ [ac-
cessed September 29, 2018]
[2] D. Petley, “Landslide tsunamis from the Sulawesi earth-
quake,” The Landslide Blog, 19 October 2018, https:
//blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2018/10/19/landslide-tsunamis-
sulawesi-earthquake/ [accessed October 24, 2018]

Name:
Abdul Muhari

Affiliation:
Head of Coastal Disaster Mitigasion Division,
The Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries

Address:
Jl. Medan Merdeka Timur No.16, Jakarta, Indonesia
Brief Career:
2012-2014 Research Fellow, Willis Research Network–IRIDeS, Tohoku
University
2005-present Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries
Selected Publications:
• J. Suckale, Z. Saiyed, G. Hilley, T. Alvisyahrin, A. Muhari, M. L.
Zoback, and S. Truebe, “Adding a community partner to service learning
mauy elevate learning but not necessarily service,” Int. J. of Disaster Risk
Reduction, Vol.28, pp. 80-87, 2018.
• A. Muhammad, K. Goda, N. A. Alexander, W. Kongko, and A. Muhari,
“Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang,
Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios,” Natural Hazards
and Earth System Sciences, Vol.17, No.12, pp. 2245-2270, 2017.
• A. Muhari, I. Charvet, F. Tsuyoshi, A. Suppasri, and F. Imamura,
“Assessment of tsunami hazards in ports and their impact on marine
vessels derived from tsunami models and the observed damage data,”
Natural Hazards, Vol.78, Issue 2, pp. 1309-1328, 2015.

Journal of Disaster Research Vol.13 Scientific Communication Online, 2018 3

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