Sampling Plans

 Single
 Double
 Sequential
OC Curves
Construction
Average outgoing Quality

Sampling Plans

Acceptance Sampling Plan – decision involves both the producer (or supplier) of materials and the
consumer (or buyer). Consumers need acceptance sampling to limit the risk of rejecting good-
quality materials or accepting bad-quality materials. Consequently, the consumer, sometimes in
conjunction with the producer through contractual agreements, specifies the parameters of the
plan. Any company can be both a producer of goods purchased by another company and a consumer
of goods or raw materials supplied by another company. Quality and Risk Decisions Two levels of
quality are considered in the design of an acceptance sampling plan. The first is the acceptable
quality level (AQL), or the quality level desired by the consumer. The producer of the item strives to
achieve the AQL, which typically is written into a contract or purchase order. For example, a contract
might call for a quality level not to exceed one defective unit in 10,000, or an AQL of 0.0001. The
producer’s risk ( ) is the risk that the sampling plan will fail to verify an acceptable lot’s quality
and, thus, reject it—a type I error. Most often the producer’s risk is set at 0.05, or 5 percent.

Although producers are interested in low risk, they often have no control over the consumer’s
acceptance sampling plan. Fortunately, the consumer also is interested in a low producer’s risk
because sending good materials back to the producer (1) disrupts the consumer’s production
process and increases the likelihood of shortages in materials, (2) adds unnecessarily to the lead
time for finished products or services, and (3) creates poor relations with the producer. The second
level of quality is the lot tolerance proportion defective (LTPD), or the worst level of quality that the
consumer can tolerate. The LTPD is a definition of bad quality that the consumer would like to reject.
Recognizing the high cost of defects, operations managers have become more cautious about
accepting materials of poor quality from suppliers. Thus, sampling plans have lower LTPD values than
in the past. The probability of accepting a lot with LTPD quality is the consumer’s risk ( ), or the type
II error of the plan. A common value for the consumer’s risk is 0.10, or 10 percent.

All sampling plans are devised to provide a specified producer’s and consumer’s risk. However, it is
in the consumer’s best interest to keep the average number of items inspected (ANI) to a minimum
because that keeps the cost of inspection low. Sampling plans differ with respect to ANI. Three
often-used attribute sampling plans are the single-sampling plan, the double-sampling plan, and the
sequential-sampling plan. Analogous plans also have been devised for variable measures of quality.
Single-Sampling Plan The single-sampling plan is a decision rule to accept or reject a lot based on
the results of one random sample from the lot. The procedure is to take a random sample of size (n)
and inspect each item. If the number of defects does not exceed a specified acceptance number (c),
the consumer accepts the entire lot. Any defects found in the sample are either repaired or returned
to the producer. If the number of defects in the sample is greater than c, the consumer subjects the
entire lot to 100 percent inspection or rejects the entire lot and returns it to the producer. The
single-sampling plan is easy to use but usually results in a larger ANI than the other plans. After
briefly describing the other sampling plans, we focus our discussion on this plan.

Double-Sampling Plan In a double-sampling plan, management specifies two sample sizes (n1 and
n2 ) and two acceptance numbers ( c1 and c2). If the quality of the lot is very good or very bad, the
consumer can make a decision to accept or reject the lot on the basis of the first sample, which is
smaller than in the single-sampling plan. To use the plan, the consumer takes a random sample of
size . If the number of defects is less than or equal to c1, the consumer accepts the lot. If the number
of defects is greater than c2, the consumer rejects the lot. If the number of defects is between c1
and c2, the consumer takes a second sample of size . If the combined number of defects in the two
samples is less than or equal to c1+c2 , the consumer accepts the lot. Otherwise, it is rejected. A
double-sampling plan can significantly reduce the costs of inspection relative to a single-sampling
plan for lots with a very low or very high proportion defective because a decision can be made after
taking the first sample. However, if the decision requires two samples, the sampling costs can be
greater than those for the single-sampling plan.

Sequential-Sampling Plan A further refinement of the double-sampling plan is the sequential-

sampling plan, in which the consumer randomly selects items from the lot and inspects them one by
one. Each time an item is inspected, a decision is made to (1) reject the lot(2) accept the lot, or (3)
continue sampling, based on the cumulative results so far. The analyst plots the total number of
defectives against the cumulative sample size, and if the number of defectives is less than a certain
acceptance number ( C1), the consumer accepts the lot. If the number is greater than another
acceptance number ( C2), the consumer rejects the lot. If the number is somewhere between the
two, another item is inspected. Figure 1 illustrates a decision to reject a lot after examining the 40th
unit. Such charts can be easily designed with the help of statistical tables that specify the accept or
reject cut-off values as a function of the

cumulative sample size.

In a single sample plan, we accept the lot if the number of defective units (d) in the sample is less
than or equal to the acceptance number (c). It means that if X represents the number of defective
units in the sample, we accept the lot if X ≤ c, i.e., X = 0 or 1 or 2, …, or c.
Therefore, the probability of accepting the lot of incoming quality p is given by
Generally,
in quality control, a random sample is drawn from a lot of finite size without replacement. So in
such situations, the number of defective units (X) in the sample follows a hypergeometric
distribution. In a lot of size N and incoming quality p, the number of defective units is Np and the
number of non-defective units is N – Np. Therefore, the probability of getting exactly x defective
units in a sample of size n from this lot is given by

We know from industrial experience that n is usually small for any economically worthwhile
production process. Therefore, when sample size n is small compared to lot size (N), i.e., when
N10n,we know that the hypergeometric distribution is approximated by the binomial
distribution with parameters n and p where p is the lot quality. It is far easier to calculate the
probabilities with the help of the binomial distribution in comparison with the hypergeometric
distribution. Therefore, we can take

When p
is small and n is large such that np is finite, we know that the binomial
distribution approaches the Poisson distribution with parameter λ = np.
Therefore, the probability of accepting a lot of quality p using the Poisson

approximation is given by

Example 1
A manufacturer of silicon chip produces chips in lots of 1000. A single sampling plan is used to
test for bad outgoing lots. If the quality of incoming lot is 0.01, calculate the probability of
accepting the lot in the
following cases:
i) n = 12 and c = 1, and
ii) n = 60 and c = 2.
P=0.01

Case 1 n=12
Case 2 n =60

Drawing the OC Curve

The sampling distribution for the single-sampling plan is the binomial distribution because each item
inspected is either defective (a failure) or not (a success). The probability of accepting the lot equals
the probability of taking a sample of size n from a lot with a proportion defective of p and finding c
or fewer defective items. However, if n is greater than 20 and p is less than 0.05, the Poisson
distribution can be used as an approximation to the binomial to take advantage of tables prepared
for the purpose of drawing OC curves (see Table G.1 on pp. G.9–G.11). To draw the OC curve, look
up the probability of accepting the lot for a range of values of p. For each value of p,

1. multiply p by the sample size n.

2. find the value of np in the left column of the table.

3. move to the right until you find the column for c.

4. record the value for the probability of acceptance, Pa.

When p = AQL, the producer’s risk, , is 1 minus the probability of acceptance. When
(p = LTPD), the consumer’s risk, b, equals the probability of acceptance.
Average Outgoing Quality

We have shown how to choose the sample size and acceptance number for a single-sampling plan,
given AQL, , LTPD, and parameters. To check whether the performance of the plan is what we want,
we can calculate the plan’s average outgoing quality (AOQ), which is the expected proportion of
defects that the plan will allow to pass. We assume that all defective items in the lot will be replaced
with good items if the lot is rejected and that any defective items in the sample will be replaced if
the lot is accepted. This approach is called rectified inspection. The equation for AOQ is

Where The analyst can calculate AOQ to estimate the performance of the plan over a range of
possible proportion defectives in order to judge whether the plan will provide an acceptable degree
of protection. The maximum value of the average outgoing quality over all possible values of the
proportion defective is called the average outgoing quality limit (AOQL). If the AOQL seems too
high, the parameters of the plan must be modified until an acceptable AOQL is achieved.
n = sample size

N = lot size
Pa = probability of accepting the lot

p = true proportion defective of the lot

Explaining Changes in the OC Curve

Increasing n while holding c constant increases the producer’s risk and reduces the consumer’s risk.

Increasing c while holding n constant decreases the producer’s risk and increases the
consumer’s risk.

Problem 2 : Suppose a consumer receives lots of 500 candles from a new supplier. To check the
quality of the lot, the consumer draws one sample of size 20 and accepts the lot if the inspected
sample contains at most one defective cnadle. Otherwise, he/she rejects the lot. Construct the OC
curve for this plan.

Solution: It is given that

N = 500,n = 20, c = 1
For constructing the OC curve, we have to calculate the probabilities of accepting the lot
corresponding to different quality levels.
Since N≥ 10n,we can use binomial distribution. Therefore,

the probabilities of accepting

the lot
corresponding to different quality levels such as p = 0.01, 0.02, 0.03…
Incoming Lot Probability of Accepting
0 1
0.02 0.9401
0.04 0.810.
0.06 0.6605
0.08 0.5169
0.1 0.3917
0.12 0.2891
0.14 0.2084
0.16 0.1471
0.18 0.108
0.2 0.0692
We now construct the OC curve by taking the quality level (proportion defective) on the X-axis
and the probability of accepting the lot on the Y-axis

1. Producer’s risk, and

2. Consumer’s risk

The probability of rejecting a lot of acceptance quality level (AQL) p 1 is known

as the producer’s risk. Therefore, the producer’s risk for a single sampling plan is given by