Corporate Performance Analysis

Dabur HDFC HDFC Bank
NW ps Value NW ps Value NW ps Value
2015 19 143 286 1288 244 975
2016 23 173 331 1491 283 1131
2017 28 210 383 1726 328 1312
2018 34 254 444 1997 381 1522
2019 41 307 514 2312 441 1766
2020 50 372 595 2676 512 2048
2021 60 450 688 3098 594 2376
2022 73 544 797 3586 689 2756
2023 88 658 922 4150 799 3197
2024 106 796 1068 4804 927 3709
2025 128 964 1236 5561 1076 4302
MP @ 2025 964 5561 4302

PV 241 1390 1076
Discount to PV -3% 19% 5%
P/B 8 4.5 4
ROA 30% 2.5% 1.3%
Price of ROA 2.3%
Book Growth 21% 16% 16%
CMP 247 1120 1026

Growth(10) 14.6% 17.4% 15%
Growth(15) 16.7% 16.8% 16%
Dabur HDFC HDFC Bank

ROA 2018 83
Asian Paints #REF! 2019 99 32 P/E #REF!
#REF! 2020 119 40 P/B #REF!
#REF! 2021 143 48 ROA #REF!
#REF! 2022 171 57 #REF!
#REF! 2023 206 69 #REF!
#REF! 2024 247 82 #REF!
#REF! 2025 296 99 #REF!
#REF! 2026 356 119 #REF!
#REF! 2027 427 142 #REF!
#REF! 2028 512 171 #REF!
MP @ 2028 4607 5119
#REF! PV 1152 1280
CMP 309 309
Discount 73% 76%
ROA 2018 57 #REF!

Kansai Nerolac #REF! 2019 63 11 P/E #REF!
#REF! 2020 69 13 P/B #REF!
#REF! 2021 76 14 ROA #REF!
#REF! 2022 84 15 #REF!
#REF! 2023 92 17 #REF!
2024 101 18
#REF! 2025 111 20
2026 123 22
2027 135 25
2028 148 27
MP @ 2028 371 405
PV 93 101
CMP 309 309
Discount -233% -205%
DATA
Cost of Employee
Materials Purchase of Changes in Benefit Other
Net Revenue Consumed Stock in Trade Inventories Expense (Rs. Expenses (Rs. EBITDA (Rs. In Depriciation
(Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) in billion) in billion) billion) (Rs. In billion)
2009 54.6 33.7 3.7 10.5 6.7 0.7
2010 66.8 37.6 4.4 12.6 12.3 0.8
2011 77.1 44.7 4.5 14.6 13.1 1.1
2012 96.3 57.2 2.5 -1.7 5.3 18.0 15.1 1.2
2013 109.7 62.5 3.3 -1.5 6.2 21.8 17.3 1.5
2014 127.1 70.3 4.1 -0.9 7.6 26.2 20.0 2.5
2015 141.8 75.3 5.9 -1.5 9.1 30.7 22.4 2.7
2016 142.7 71.9 6.6 2.0 9.9 24.6 27.7 2.8
2017 152.9 81.1 8.5 -5.3 10.9 27.5 30.2 3.4
2018 168.2 85.9 9.6 1.4 11.2 28.2 32.0 3.6
2019 193.4 103.6 12.8 -2.9 12.7 32.0 35.2 4.3
2020
Average
NW ps EPS NW ps EPS
2020 116 2019 99
2021 135 38 2020 116 33 RONW ~ 33%
2022 157 44 2021 135 38 Retention Ratio ~ 50%
2023 183 52 2022 157 44 P/E
2024 213 60 2023 183 52 P/B
2025 248 70 2024 213 60 ROA
2026 289 82 2025 248 70
2027 337 95 2026 289 82
2028 392 111 2027 337 95
2029 457 129 2028 392 111
2030 532 151 2029 457 129
MP @ 2030 7455 7240 MP @ 2029 6399 6214
PV 1864 1810 PV 1600 1554
CMP 1570 1570 CMP 1570 1570
Discount 16% 13% Discount 2% -1%
Implied Return 16.9%
Implied P/B 13.6
Total Cost of Employee
Materials Total Changes Benefit Advertising & Other
Net Revenue Consumed in Stock (Rs. Expense (Rs. Publicity (Rs. Expenses (Rs. EBITDA (Rs. In Depriciation
(Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) in billion) in billion) in billion) in billion) billion) (Rs. In billion)
2006 100 #REF!
2007 100 #REF!
2008 100 #REF!
2009 100 61.7
2010 100 56.2
2011 100 58.1
2012 100 62.0 #REF! 5.5 18.7 #REF! 1.3
2013 100 60.1 #REF! 5.7 19.8 #REF! 1.4
2014 100 58.4 #REF! 6.0 20.6 #REF! 1.9
2015 100 57.2 #REF! 6.4 #REF! 21.6 #REF! 1.9
2016 100 55.0 #REF! 6.9 #REF! 17.3 #REF! 1.9
2017 100 58.6 #REF! 7.1 #REF! 18.0 #REF! 2.2
2018 100 #REF! #REF! 6.6 #REF! 16.8 #REF! 2.1
Working Trade
EBI (Rs. In Finance Cost Net Profit (Rs. NW (Rs. In Long Term Capital (Rs. In Total Assets Payables (Rs.
billion) (Rs. In billion) In billion) billion) Loan & Prov. Fixed Assets billion) (Rs. In billion) In billion)
6.0 0.3 4.0 12.0 4.4 10.3 6.1 16.4 4.4
11.4 0.3 8.4 17.1 3.8 19.4 1.5 20.9 6.0
12.0 0.2 8.4 21.9 4.3 22.8 3.4 26.2 7.7
13.9 0.4 9.9 27.5 2.4 20.7 9.2 29.9 12.6
15.8 0.4 11.1 33.8 3.1 26.2 10.8 37.0 14.4
17.5 0.4 12.2 40.4 3.3 29.2 14.6 43.7 17.5
19.7 0.3 14.0 47.4 3.9 32.9 18.4 51.3 15.5
24.9 0.4 18.0 65.2 5.0 44.4 25.9 70.3 15.7
26.8 0.3 20.2 76.0 5.6 50.8 30.8 81.6 19.2
28.4 0.4 21.0 84.1 0.2 59.7 24.6 84.3 21.6
30.9 0.5 22.1 95.2 0.2 69.4 26.1 95.4 23.9
Return on Opening NW
Retention Ratio ~ 50%

48
14
30%
29%
1.17
Return on Opening NW
Net Cash Flow
from Free Cash
EBI (Rs. In Finance Cost Net Profit (Rs. NW (Rs. In Long Term Total Assets Operations Capital Expen. Flow(Rs. In
billion) (Rs. In billion) In billion) billion) Loan (Rs. In billion) (Rs. In billion) (Rs. In billion) billion)
#REF! #REF! #REF! 100 #REF! #REF! #REF!
7.3 73.3 26.7 100 7.1 5.7 1.5
12.5 81.8 18.2 100 15.9 5.9 10.0
10.9 83.6 16.4 100 9.9 2.0 7.9
#REF! 0.4 10.3 91.9 8.1 100 7.3 5.7 1.6
#REF! 0.3 10.2 91.5 8.5 100 10.8 5.9 4.9
#REF! 0.3 9.6 92.4 7.6 100 11.0 2.0 9.1
#REF! 0.2 9.8 92.4 7.6 100 8.4 3.2 5.2
#REF! 0.3 12.6 92.8 7.2 100
#REF! 0.2 13.2 93.2 6.8 100
#REF! 0.2 12.5
CASH FLOWS
Enterprise Net Cash Flow

Market Cap Value (Rs. in No. of o/s from Free Cash
(Rs. in billion) billion) Shares (In Operations Capital Expen. Flow(Rs. In
30/6/XX 30/6/XX billion) NW ps EPS Dividend ps (Rs. In billion) (Rs. In billion) billion)
112 117 0.0959 125.4 41.5 17.5 3.9 3.1 0.8
226 230 0.0959 178.3 87.1 27 10.6 4.0 6.7
301 306 0.0959 228.0 87.9 32 7.6 1.6 6.1
373 375 0.0959 286.5 103.1 40.00 7.0 5.5 1.5
445 448 0.0959 352.8 116.1 46.00 11.9 6.4 5.4
561 564 0.9592 42.1 12.7 5.30 14.0 2.5 11.5
707 711 0.9592 49.4 14.5 6.10 11.9 4.5 7.3
953 958 0.9592 68.0 18.8 7.50 22.4 8.2 14.3
1059 1065 0.9592 79.3 21.0 10.30 15.3 6.8 8.4
1212 1213 0.9592 87.7 21.9 8.70 21.1 14.3 6.9
1303 1303 0.9592 99.2 23.1 10.50 22.1 11.5 10.6
5 Yr. Time Frame

Mcap / NW Multiple 9 11 12 13 14 15
Return on Opening NW Reten. Rati Growth Mult.
25% 50% 12.5% 0.1% 4.2% 6.0% 7.8% 9.4% 10.9%
28% 50% 14.0% 1.5% 5.6% 7.5% 9.2% 10.8% 12.4%
30% 50% 15.0% 2.3% 6.5% 8.4% 10.2% 11.8% 13.4%
32% 50% 16.0% 3.2% 7.5% 9.3% 11.1% 12.8% 14.3%
35% 50% 17.5% 4.6% 8.9% 10.8% 12.5% 14.2% 15.8%
36% 50% 18.0% 5.0% 9.3% 11.2% 13.0% 14.7% 16.3%
38% 50% 19.0% 5.9% 10.2% 12.2% 14.0% 15.7% 17.3%
40% 50% 20.0% 6.8% 11.2% 13.1% 14.9% 16.7% 18.3%
Book Value 99
Entry Price 1600
10 Yr. Time Frame

25% 50% 12.5% 6.1% 8.3% 9.2% 10.1% 10.9% 11.7%
28% 50% 14.0% 7.5% 9.7% 10.7% 11.6% 12.4% 13.2%
30% 50% 15.0% 8.5% 10.7% 11.7% 12.6% 13.4% 14.2%
32% 50% 16.0% 9.4% 11.6% 12.6% 13.5% 14.4% 15.2%
35% 50% 17.5% 10.8% 13.1% 14.1% 15.0% 15.9% 16.7%
36% 50% 18.0% 11.3% 13.6% 14.6% 15.5% 16.3% 17.2%
38% 50% 19.0% 12.3% 14.5% 15.5% 16.5% 17.3% 18.1%
40% 50% 20.0% 13.2% 15.5% 16.5% 17.4% 18.3% 19.1%
Book Value 99
Entry Price 1600
GROWTH & PROFITABILITY
Employee
Material Expenses EBIDTA EBIDTA
Costs Margin Margin Margin Growth EBI Margin NP Margin NP Growth FCF Margin FCF / NW
61.7% 6.8% 12.3% 10.9% 7.3% 1.5% 6.6%
56.2% 6.5% 18.4% 83.2% 17.1% 12.5% 110.0% 10.0% 39.1%
58.1% 5.9% 17.0% 7.0% 15.6% 10.9% 0.9% 7.9% 27.7%
62.0% 5.5% 15.7% 14.9% 14.4% 10.3% 17.3% 1.6% 5.6%
60.1% 5.7% 15.8% 14.8% 14.4% 10.2% 12.7% 4.9% 16.0%
58.4% 6.0% 15.7% 15.4% 13.8% 9.6% 9.4% 9.1% 28.5%
57.2% 6.4% 15.8% 11.9% 13.9% 9.8% 14.5% 5.2% 15.5%
55.0% 6.9% 19.4% 23.9% 17.5% 12.6% 29.2% 10.0% 21.9%
58.6% 7.1% 19.8% 9.1% 17.5% 13.2% 11.8% 5.5% 11.1%
56.8% 6.6% 19.0% 5.8% 16.9% 12.5% 4.0% 4.1% 8.2%
60.2% 6.6% 18.2% 10.2% 16.0% 11.4% 5.5% 5.5% 11.2%
58.5% 6.3% 16.9% 10.8%
Probabilities Weighted
of Growth Growth
20% 2.5%
20% 2.8%
18% 2.7%
15% 2.4%
12% 2.1%
8% 1.4%
5% 1.0%
2% 0.4%
100% 15.3%
Net Cash Flow Capex / Net Sales / Fixed Sales / Total
Growth Accrual Ratio CFO / EBIDTA Capex / Depr. Capex / Sales Profit Sales / Depr. Assets Assets
1.0 58% 4.2 5.7% 77.9% 73.5 5.3 3.3
173.0% 0.8 87% 4.7 5.9% 47.3% 80.0 3.4 3.2
-28.4% 1.1 58% 1.4 2.0% 18.5% 68.1 3.4 2.9
-8.1% 1.4 46% 4.5 5.7% 55.3% 79.5 4.7 3.2
69.6% 0.9 69% 4.2 5.9% 57.8% 71.0 4.2 3.0
18.1% 0.9 70% 1.0 2.0% 20.6% 51.8 4.4 2.9
-15.3% 1.2 53% 1.7 3.2% 32.5% 53.3 4.3 2.8
88.8% 0.8 81% 3.0 5.7% 45.3% 51.8 3.2 2.0
-31.9% 1.3 51% 2.0 4.5% 33.9% 45.1 3.0 1.9
38.4% 1.0 66% 4.0 8.5% 68.0% 46.7 2.8 2.0
4.8% 1.0 63% 2.7 5.9% 52.0% 44.9 2.8 2.0
1.0 62.7%
PROFITABILITY OF RETAINED EARNINGS
Owner
Earnings (Rs. 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR Return on Retention 5 Yr. Diffential 4 Yr. Diffential
In billion) Sales EBIDTA Net Profit Market Cap Opening NW Ratio Profit by NW Profit by NW
1.6 57.8%
5.2 69.5% 69.0%
8.0 49.3% 63.6%
5.6 45.2% 61.2%
6.2 40.5% 60.4%
12.1 18.4% 24.4% 25.1% 37.9% 36.0% 58.3%
12.1 16.2% 12.7% 10.8% 25.6% 34.5% 58.1%
12.6 13.1% 16.1% 16.4% 25.9% 38.0% 60.1%
16.7 9.7% 14.9% 15.3% 23.2% 30.9% 51.0%
10.3 8.9% 13.0% 13.5% 22.2% 27.6% 60.2%
14.9 8.8% 12.0% 12.7% 18.3% 26.3% 54.5%
31.9% 56.9%
ITY OF RETAINED EARNINGS DU PONT ANALYSIS VALUATIONS
3 Yr. Diffential Sales / Total Total Assets / Mcap / Net

Profit by NW NP / Sales Assets NW ROA NP / NW Profit Mcap / Sales Mcap / NW
7.3% 3.3 1.4 24.2% 33.1% 28.3 2.1 9.3
12.5% 3.2 1.2 40.0% 48.9% 27.1 3.4 13.2
10.9% 2.9 1.2 32.2% 38.5% 35.7 3.9 13.8
10.3% 3.2 1.1 33.1% 36.0% 37.7 3.9 13.6
10.2% 3.0 1.1 30.1% 32.9% 39.9 4.1 13.1
9.6% 2.9 1.1 27.9% 30.2% 46.0 4.4 13.9
9.8% 2.8 1.1 27.2% 29.4% 50.7 5.0 14.9
12.6% 2.0 1.1 25.7% 27.6% 52.9 6.7 14.6
13.2% 1.9 1.1 24.7% 26.5% 52.5 6.9 13.9
12.5% 2.0 1.0 24.9% 24.9% 57.8 7.2 14.4
11.4% 2.0 1.0 23.2% 23.2% 58.9 6.7 13.7
11.4% 2.3 25.5% 26.9% 44.3 4.2 13.5

VALUATIONS
EV / EBI EV / Sales Cash Yield Date Close 50d EMA

19.6 2.1 0.7% 1-Jan-20 1,793.20
20.1 3.4 3.0% 2-Jan-20 1,790.65
25.5 4.0 2.0% 3-Jan-20 1,751.40
27.0 3.9 0.4% 6-Jan-20 1,707.15
28.4 4.1 1.2% 7-Jan-20 1,724.40
32.2 4.4 2.1% 8-Jan-20 1,728.80
36.1 5.0 1.0% 9-Jan-20 1,772.55
38.4 6.7 1.5% 10-Jan-20 1,792.55
39.7 7.0 0.8% 13-Jan-20 1,804.90
42.7 7.2 0.6% 14-Jan-20 1,819.15
42.1 6.7 0.8% 15-Jan-20 1,842.25
16-Jan-20 1,835.15
17-Jan-20 1,830.05
32.0 5.0 20-Jan-20 1,848.75
21-Jan-20 1,810.75
22-Jan-20 1,779.25
23-Jan-20 1,776.10
24-Jan-20 1,786.80
27-Jan-20 1,788.35
28-Jan-20 1,779.10
29-Jan-20 1,796.95
30-Jan-20 1,805.00
31-Jan-20 1,795.65
1-Feb-20 1,755.35
3-Feb-20 1,867.65
4-Feb-20 1,891.30
5-Feb-20 1,873.50
6-Feb-20 1,856.80
7-Feb-20 1,858.70
10-Feb-20 1,869.50
11-Feb-20 1,878.10
12-Feb-20 1,893.70
13-Feb-20 1,874.05
14-Feb-20 1,877.05
17-Feb-20 1,881.40
18-Feb-20 1,863.65
19-Feb-20 1,884.90
20-Feb-20 1,842.25
24-Feb-20 1,818.95
25-Feb-20 1,826.10
26-Feb-20 1,826.65
27-Feb-20 1,843.80
28-Feb-20 1,797.95
2-Mar-20 1,786.80
3-Mar-20 1,800.55
4-Mar-20 1,847.95
5-Mar-20 1,874.45
6-Mar-20 1,877.45
9-Mar-20 1,867.15
11-Mar-20 1,882.85 1,824
12-Mar-20 1,843.35 1,824
13-Mar-20 1,797.70 1,823
16-Mar-20 1,683.40 1,818
17-Mar-20 1,731.60 1,814
18-Mar-20 1,618.20 1,806
19-Mar-20 1,601.20 1,798
20-Mar-20 1,742.95 1,796
23-Mar-20 1,498.45 1,784
24-Mar-20 1,524.85 1,774
25-Mar-20 1,593.15 1,766
26-Mar-20 1,616.95 1,761
27-Mar-20 1,604.15 1,754
30-Mar-20 1,594.95 1,748
31-Mar-20 1,666.50 1,745
1-Apr-20 1,603.20 1,739
3-Apr-20 1,520.90 1,730
7-Apr-20 1,623.80 1,726
8-Apr-20 1,608.95 1,721
9-Apr-20 1,651.35 1,719
13-Apr-20 1,680.85 1,717
15-Apr-20 1,718.20 1,717
16-Apr-20 1,743.10 1,718
17-Apr-20 1,756.25 1,720
20-Apr-20 1,730.45 1,720
21-Apr-20 1,726.00 1,720
22-Apr-20 1,813.00 1,724
23-Apr-20 1,821.65 1,728
24-Apr-20 1,827.55 1,732
27-Apr-20 1,851.35 1,737
28-Apr-20 1,824.40 1,740
29-Apr-20 1,767.50 1,741
30-Apr-20 1,758.70 1,742
4-May-20 1,676.80 1,739
5-May-20 1,619.15 1,735
6-May-20 1,610.65 1,730
7-May-20 1,594.30 1,724
Ratio of
30d EMA
to 50d
30d EMA EMA
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
11-Mar-20 18-Mar-20 25-Mar-20 1-Apr-20 8-Apr-20 15-Apr-20 22-Apr-2
1,804
1,809
1,815
1,819
1,823
1,827
1,829
1,833
1,833
1,833
1,832
1,832
1,833
1,830
1,827
1,826
1,827
1,830
1,833
1,836
1,839
1,839
1,836 1.0071
1,826 1.0046 (25)
1,820 1.0031 (16)
1,806 1.0000 (31)
1,793 0.9969 (30)
1,789 0.9963 (6)
1,770 0.9921 (42)
1,754 0.9887 (34)
1,743 0.9867 (20)
1,735 0.9852 (14)
1,726 0.9838 (14)
1,717 0.9824 (14)
1,714 0.9823 (1)
1,706 0.9813 (10)
1,694 0.9791 (22)
1,689 0.9788 (3)
1,684 0.9783 (5)
1,682 0.9786 3
1,682 0.9795 8
1,684 0.9808 14
1,688 0.9825 17
1,693 0.9843 18
1,695 0.9855 12
1,697 0.9866 11
1,705 0.9889 24
1,713 0.9912 23
1,720 0.9933 21
1,729 0.9956 23
1,735 0.9973 16
1,738 0.9979 6
1,739 0.9983 4
1,735 0.9974 (9)
1,727 0.9957 (17)
1,719 0.9941 (16)
1,711 0.9924 (17)
pr-20 15-Apr-20 22-Apr-20 29-Apr-20 6-May-20
Reserves & Balance Sheet
Capital (Rs. In Surplus (Rs. In NW (Rs. In Adj. NW (Rs. In Net Profit (Rs. Total (Rs. In GNPA (Rs. In NNPA (Rs. In
billion) billion) billion) billion) In billion) billion) billion) billion)
2013 0.495 33.0 33.5 33.5 5.9 178
2014 0.498 39.4 39.9 39.2 7.2 246 2.8 0.7
2015 0.500 47.5 48.0 46.6 9.0 328 4.8 1.4
2016 0.536 72.7 73.2 72.0 12.8 470 5.4 1.2
2017 1.094 89.4 90.5 89.5 18.4 609 9.8 1.1
2018 1.150 157.3 158.5 154.9 26.7 835 11.6 3.5
2019 1.154 195.8 197.0 189.8 39.9 1227 17.9 7.2
2020 1.200 322.1 323.3 323.3 52.6
Average
` Adj. NW EPS ` Adj. NW

2021 650 3.1 2020 539
2022 785 150 2021 650
2023 948 181 2022 785
2024 1144 218 2023 948
2025 1380 263 2024 1144
2026 1666 317 2025 1380
2027 2011 383 2026 1666
2028 2427 463 2027 2011
2029 2930 558 2028 2427
2030 3536 674 2029 2930
2031 4268 813 2030 3536
MP @ 2031 17073 14233 MP @ 2030 14145
PV 4268 3558 PV 3536
CMP 2000 2527 CMP 2527
Discount 53% 29% Discount 29%
Implied Return 23.9%
Implied P/B 3.1
No. of o/s Market Cap
Shares (adj.) (Rs. in billion) Mcap / Net Mcap / Adj. Return on
(In billion) Adj. NW ps EPS Dividend ps (30/6/X) Profit NW Opening NW Leverage
0.0495 677 119 15 69 11.6 2.0 0 5.3
0.0498 789 145 16 100 13.9 2.5 21.5% 6.2
0.0500 931 180 18 272 30.3 5.8 22.5% 6.8
0.0536 1345 239 25 428 33.5 5.9 26.6% 6.4
0.5469 164 34 3.6 751 40.9 8.4 25.1% 6.7
0.5752 269 46 4 1265 47.3 8.2 29.5% 5.3
0.5769 329 69 6 2019 50.5 10.6 25.2% 6.2
0.6000 539 88 1165 22.1 3.6 26.7%
29.6 5.0 23.8% 6.3
EPS
3.9 Mcap / NW Multiple
124 RONW ~ 23% Return on Opening NW Reten. Rati
150 Retention Ratio ~ 90% 18% 90%
181 P/E 17.5 20% 90%
218 P/B 4 22% 90%
263 ROA 2.8% 23% 90%
317 24% 90%
383 25% 90%
463 23% 26% 90%
558 27% 90%
674 1.21
11792
2948
2527
14%
Deposits & GNPA /
Retention Borrowings Deposits & GNPA / Net 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr. Diffential
ROA ROE Ratio (In billion) Borrowings Worth Book Value 5 Yr CAGR NP Profit by NW
3.3% 17.6% 87% 145
2.9% 18.0% 89% 206 1.4% 7.0%
2.7% 18.7% 90% 280 1.7% 10.1%
2.7% 17.5% 90% 396 1.4% 7.4%
3.0% 20.3% 89% 518 1.9% 10.9%
3.2% 16.9% 91% 676 1.7% 7.3%
3.3% 20.3% 91% 1030 1.7% 9.1%
2.8% 18.6% 89.4% 8.7%
5 Yr. Time Frame

Mcap / NW Multiple 3 3.5 4 4.5 4.8 5 Probabilities Weighted
Growth Mult. of Growth Growth
16.2% 11.9% 15.4% 18.6% 21.4% 23.0% 24.0% 20% 3.2%
18.0% 13.7% 17.2% 20.4% 23.3% 24.9% 25.9% 20% 3.6%
19.8% 15.4% 19.0% 22.2% 25.1% 26.8% 27.8% 18% 3.6%
20.7% 16.3% 19.9% 23.1% 26.1% 27.7% 28.8% 15% 3.1%
21.6% 17.1% 20.8% 24.1% 27.0% 28.7% 29.7% 12% 2.6%
22.5% 18.0% 21.7% 25.0% 28.0% 29.6% 30.7% 8% 1.8%
23.4% 18.9% 22.6% 25.9% 28.9% 30.6% 31.6% 5% 1.2%
24.3% 19.7% 23.5% 26.8% 29.8% 31.5% 32.6% 2% 0.5%
Book Value 539 100% 19.6%
Entry Price 1950
Ratio of 30d
EMA to 50d
Date Close 50d EMA 30d EMA EMA
01/Jan/20 4,231.30
5000
02/Jan/20 4,246.05
03/Jan/20 4,193.45 4500
06/Jan/20 3,996.70
07/Jan/20 4,007.65 4000
08/Jan/20 4,049.95
09/Jan/20 4,124.20 3500
10/Jan/20 4,144.85
3000
13/Jan/20 4,164.50
14/Jan/20 4,193.00 2500
15/Jan/20 4,207.25
16/Jan/20 4,220.25 2000
17/Jan/20 4,231.75
20/Jan/20 4,152.60 1500
21/Jan/20 4,138.60 11/Mar/20
22/Jan/20 4,142.20
23/Jan/20 4,125.80
24/Jan/20 4,194.50
27/Jan/20 4,164.35
28/Jan/20 4,213.00
29/Jan/20 4,419.00
30/Jan/20 4,364.30
31/Jan/20 4,365.90
01/Feb/20 4,276.05
03/Feb/20 4,359.35
04/Feb/20 4,519.25
05/Feb/20 4,528.20
06/Feb/20 4,666.35
07/Feb/20 4,654.30
10/Feb/20 4,721.75 4,267
11/Feb/20 4,749.35 4,299
12/Feb/20 4,768.70 4,331
13/Feb/20 4,795.35 4,362
14/Feb/20 4,781.75 4,390
17/Feb/20 4,776.65 4,415
18/Feb/20 4,758.00 4,438
19/Feb/20 4,878.05 4,468
20/Feb/20 4,880.45 4,495
24/Feb/20 4,803.95 4,516
25/Feb/20 4,825.95 4,536
26/Feb/20 4,810.00 4,555
27/Feb/20 4,759.80 4,568
28/Feb/20 4,465.85 4,561
02/Mar/20 4,360.75 4,548
03/Mar/20 4,454.10 4,542
04/Mar/20 4,286.40 4,525
05/Mar/20 4,330.70 4,512
06/Mar/20 4,225.85 4,493
09/Mar/20 4,026.80 4,462
11/Mar/20 4,030.65 4,396 4,433
12/Mar/20 3,734.35 4,369 4,386
13/Mar/20 3,952.55 4,353 4,357 1.0011
16/Mar/20 3,672.25 4,325 4,312 0.9969 (43)
17/Mar/20 3,444.85 4,290 4,254 0.9916 (53)
18/Mar/20 3,061.35 4,241 4,174 0.9843 (73)
19/Mar/20 2,746.10 4,181 4,079 0.9756 (87)
20/Mar/20 2,951.90 4,132 4,004 0.9690 (66)
23/Mar/20 2,266.15 4,057 3,888 0.9583 (107)
24/Mar/20 2,474.20 3,994 3,794 0.9499 (84)
25/Mar/20 2,585.60 3,938 3,713 0.9430 (69)
26/Mar/20 2,793.70 3,892 3,652 0.9384 (47)
27/Mar/20 2,542.30 3,838 3,578 0.9323 (61)
30/Mar/20 2,242.10 3,774 3,489 0.9245 (78)
31/Mar/20 2,215.80 3,712 3,404 0.9171 (73)
01/Apr/20 2,219.35 3,652 3,325 0.9105 (66)
03/Apr/20 2,207.50 3,594 3,251 0.9044 (61)
07/Apr/20 2,253.35 3,541 3,184 0.8993 (51)
08/Apr/20 2,332.90 3,492 3,127 0.8955 (38)
09/Apr/20 2,551.85 3,455 3,089 0.8941 (14)
13/Apr/20 2,287.30 3,408 3,036 0.8907 (34)
15/Apr/20 2,182.45 3,359 2,979 0.8868 (39)
16/Apr/20 2,220.00 3,313 2,928 0.8837 (31)
17/Apr/20 2,308.15 3,273 2,887 0.8819 (18)
20/Apr/20 2,308.25 3,235 2,848 0.8805 (14)
21/Apr/20 2,099.75 3,189 2,798 0.8774 (31)
22/Apr/20 2,148.25 3,148 2,755 0.8753 (22)
23/Apr/20 2,172.45 3,109 2,716 0.8738 (15)
24/Apr/20 1,976.25 3,063 2,667 0.8706 (32)
27/Apr/20 2,044.05 3,023 2,625 0.8686 (20)
28/Apr/20 2,228.10 2,991 2,599 0.8690 4
29/Apr/20 2,296.45 2,963 2,579 0.8703 13
30/Apr/20 2,318.10 2,937 2,561 0.8720 17
04/May/20 2,079.65 2,903 2,529 0.8713 (8)
05/May/20 2,002.35 2,867 2,494 0.8700 (13)
06/May/20 2,106.25 2,836 2,468 0.8702 2
07/May/20 2,071.00 2,806 2,442 0.8702 1
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
11/Mar/20 11/Apr/20
DATA
Cost of Changes in Employee

Materials Purchase of Changes in Finished Changes in Benefit Advertising &
Net Revenue Consumed Stock in Trade Stock in Trade Goods (Rs. in WIP (Rs. in Expense (Rs. Publicity (Rs.
(Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) billion) billion) in billion) in billion)
2006 18.996 8.077
2007 22.337 9.711
2008 23.611 11.154
2009 28.054 13.762
2010 33.905 15.507
2011 40.774 19.053
2012 53.054 22.788 5.167 -0.545 -0.257 -0.228 3.874
2013 61.761 24.221 5.992 -0.303 -0.009 -0.292 4.712
2014 70.753 27.390 7.044 -0.230 -0.264 0.059 6.077
2015 78.272 30.026 7.434 -0.210 -0.149 0.100 6.896 11.244
2016 78.688 29.479 9.722 -0.705 7.941 7.716
2017 77.014 31.126 7.536 -0.230 7.896 6.461
2018 77.483 32.465 6.658 -0.659 7.928 6.067
2019 85.331 34.934 8.030 0.126 9.379 6.083
Average
NW ps EPS NW ps EPS
2020 39 2019 32
2021 47 14 2020 39 11 RONW ~ 35%
2022 56 16 2021 47 14 Retention Ratio ~ 60%
2023 68 20 2022 56 16 P/E
2024 83 24 2023 68 20 P/B
2025 100 29 2024 83 24 ROA
2026 121 35 2025 100 29
2027 147 42 2026 121 35
2028 177 51 2027 147 42
2029 214 62 2028 177 51
2030 260 75 2029 214 62
MP @ 2030 1947 1877 MP @ 2029 1609 1551
PV 487 469 PV 402 388
CMP 425 450 CMP 450 450
Discount 13% 4% Discount -12% -16%
Implied Return 16%
Implied P/B 11.0
Total Cost of Employee
Materials Total Changes Benefit Advertising & Other
Net Revenue Consumed in Stock (Rs. Expense (Rs. Publicity (Rs. Expenses (Rs. EBITDA (Rs. In Depriciation
(Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) in billion) in billion) in billion) in billion) billion) (Rs. In billion)
2006 100 42.5
2007 100 43.5
2008 100 47.2
2009 100 49.1
2010 100 45.7
2011 100 46.7
2012 100 52.7 -1.9 7.3 25.2 16.8 1.9
2013 100 48.9 -1.0 7.6 26.8 17.6 1.8
2014 100 48.7 -0.6 8.6 27.3 16.1 1.4
2015 100 47.9 -0.3 8.8 14.4 12.5 16.8 1.5
2016 100 49.8 -0.9 10.1 9.8 11.9 19.3 1.7
2017 100 50.2 -0.3 10.3 8.4 11.9 19.6 1.9
2018 100 50.5 -0.9 10.2 7.8 11.4 20.9 2.1
Other
Expenses (Rs. EBITDA (Rs. In Depriciation EBI (Rs. In Finance Cost Net Profit (Rs. NW (Rs. In Long Term
in billion) billion) (Rs. In billion) billion) (Rs. In billion) In billion) billion) Loan Fixed Assets
2.142 4.971 1.269
2.830 4.796 1.903
3.341 6.176 1.312
3.912 8.188 2.627
5.013 9.354 1.937
5.686 13.911 10.740
13.354 8.902 1.032 7.869 0.538 6.449 17.172 9.633
16.558 10.881 1.124 9.757 0.589 7.634 21.244 6.375
19.303 11.373 0.975 10.398 0.542 9.139 26.560 2.604 17.886
9.768 13.164 1.150 12.014 0.401 10.658 33.541 2.106 19.274
9.352 15.183 1.332 13.851 0.485 12.538 41.923 4.865
9.135 15.089 1.429 13.661 0.540 12.801 48.722 6.364
8.850 16.174 1.622 14.553 0.531 13.577 57.065 5.341
9.382 17.396 1.769 15.627 0.596 14.463 56.317 1.133
39.1

25
7.5
30%
30%
1.21
Net Cash Flow
from Free Cash
EBI (Rs. In Finance Cost Net Profit (Rs. NW (Rs. In Long Term Total Assets Operations Capital Expen. Flow(Rs. In
billion) (Rs. In billion) In billion) billion) Loan (Rs. In billion) (Rs. In billion) (Rs. In billion) billion)
11.3 79.7 20.3 100 11.5 3.8 7.7
12.7 71.6 28.4 100 10.1 2.3 7.8
14.2 82.5 17.5 100 16.2 5.3 10.9
13.9 75.7 24.3 100 11.5 5.9 5.6
14.8 82.8 17.2 100 14.7 4.7 10.0
13.9 56.4 43.6 100 12.3 22.8 -10.5
14.8 1.0 12.2 64.1 35.9 100 11.3 4.2 7.0
15.8 1.0 12.4 76.9 23.1 100 14.1 3.9 10.2
14.7 0.8 12.9 88.5 8.7 100 15.6 3.0 12.5
15.3 0.5 13.6 91.0 5.7 100 13.4 3.4 10.0
17.6 0.6 15.9 89.6 10.4 100
17.7 0.7 16.6 88.4 11.6 100
18.8 0.7 17.5
CASH FLOWS
Enterprise
Working Trade Market Cap Value (Rs. in No. of o/s
Capital (Rs. In Total Assets Payables (Rs. (Rs. in billion) billion) Shares (In
billion) (Rs. In billion) In billion) 30/6/XX 30/6/XX billion) NW ps EPS Dividend ps
6.24 81 83 0.5733 8.7 3.7 1.8
6.70 89 91 0.8629 5.6 3.3 1.4
7.49 68 70 0.8640 7.1 3.9 1.5
10.81 109 112 0.8651 9.5 4.5 1.8
11.29 183 185 0.8690 10.8 5.8 2.0
24.65 198 209 1.7407 8.0 3.3 1.3
26.80 200 210 1.7421 9.9 3.7 1.3
27.62 7.167 270 277 1.7429 12.2 4.4 1.5
6.941 30.02 10.965 384 386 1.7438 15.2 5.2 1.8
3.121 36.88 10.958 492 494 1.7562 19.1 6.1 2.0
46.79 13.301 477 482 1.7591 23.8 7.1 1.0
55.09 13.027 602 609 1.7615 27.7 7.3 1.0
62.41 14.103 689 694 1.7615 32.4 7.7 6.25
57.45 14.554 795 796 1.7663 31.9 8.2 1.50
30.6
5 Yr. Time Frame

Mcap / NW Multiple 5 6.5 7.5
25% 60% 15.0% 0.2% 5.6% 8.6%
30% 60% 18.0% 2.8% 8.3% 11.5%
35% 60% 21.0% 5.4% 11.1% 14.3%
40% 60% 24.0% 8.0% 13.8% 17.1%
45% 60% 27.0% 10.6% 16.6% 20.0%
50% 60% 30.0% 13.2% 19.3% 22.8%
55% 60% 33.0% 15.8% 22.1% 25.6%
60% 60% 36.0% 18.5% 24.8% 28.5%
Book Value 39
Entry Price 391
10 Yr. Time Frame

Mcap / NW Multiple 5 6.5 7.5
25% 60% 15.0% 7.3% 10.2% 11.8%
30% 60% 18.0% 10.1% 13.1% 14.7%
35% 60% 21.0% 12.9% 15.9% 17.6%
40% 60% 24.0% 15.7% 18.8% 20.5%
45% 60% 27.0% 18.5% 21.7% 23.4%
50% 60% 30.0% 21.3% 24.6% 26.3%
55% 60% 33.0% 24.1% 27.4% 29.3%
60% 60% 36.0% 26.9% 30.3% 32.2%
Book Value 39
Entry Price 391
Net Cash Flow Manufact. &

from Free Cash Other
Operations Capital Expen. Flow(Rs. In Material Expenses EBIDTA EBIDTA
(Rs. In billion) (Rs. In billion) billion) Costs Margin Margin Margin Growth EBI Margin NP Margin
2.187 0.729 1.458 42.5% 11.3%
2.252 0.513 1.739 43.5% 12.7%
3.821 1.248 2.573 47.2% 14.2%
3.222 1.664 1.558 49.1% 13.9%
4.989 1.604 3.385 45.7% 14.8%
5.011 9.313 -4.302 46.7% 13.9%
5.969 2.237 3.732 52.7% 32.5% 16.8% 14.8% 12.2%
8.695 2.410 6.286 48.9% 34.4% 17.6% 22.2% 15.8% 12.4%
11.011 2.154 8.856 48.7% 35.9% 16.1% 4.5% 14.7% 12.9%
10.472 2.670 7.802 47.9% 21.3% 16.8% 15.7% 15.3% 13.6%
49.8% 22.0% 19.3% 15.3% 17.6% 15.9%
50.2% 22.1% 19.6% -0.6% 17.7% 16.6%
50.5% 21.7% 20.9% 7.2% 18.8% 17.5%
50.3% 22.0% 20.4% 7.6% 18.3% 16.9%
47.9% 26.4% 18.1% 14.3%
me Frame
8.5 9 10 Probabilities Weighted
of Growth Growth
11.4% 12.7% 15.1% 20% 3.0%
14.3% 15.6% 18.1% 20% 3.6%
17.2% 18.5% 21.1% 18% 3.8%
20.1% 21.5% 24.1% 15% 3.6%
23.0% 24.4% 27.1% 12% 3.2%
25.9% 27.4% 30.1% 8% 2.4%
28.8% 30.3% 33.1% 5% 1.7%
31.7% 33.2% 36.1% 2% 0.7%
100% 22.0%
me Frame
8.5 9 10
13.2% 13.8% 15.0%

16.1% 16.8% 18.0%
19.1% 19.8% 21.0%
22.0% 22.7% 24.0%
25.0% 25.7% 27.0%
27.9% 28.7% 30.0%
30.9% 31.6% 33.0%
33.8% 34.6% 36.0%
Franchise Moat
Value (Cost of (Current
Net Cash Flow Capital @ Franchise Liabilities /
NP Growth FCF Margin FCF / NW Growth 15%) Value / Sales Total Income) Accrual Ratio CFO / EBIDTA
7.7% 9 49.0% 1.0
32.2% 7.8% 35.0% 3.0% 14 63.0% 1.3
18.0% 10.9% 53.6% 69.7% 16 68.2% 0.9
17.1% 5.6% 25.2% -15.7% 18 63.8% 1.2
28.1% 10.0% 41.3% 54.8% 24 71.0% 1.0
13.4% -10.5% -46.0% 0.4% 24 58.8% 1.1
13.4% 7.0% 26.8% 19.1% 26 48.7% 1.1 67%
18.4% 10.2% 36.6% 45.7% 30 48.0% 11.6% 0.9 80%
19.7% 12.5% 41.7% 26.6% 34 48.6% 15.5% 0.8 97%
16.6% 10.0% 29.4% -4.9% 38 47.9% 14.0% 1.0 80%
17.6% 42 52.9% 16.9% #DIV/0! 0%
2.1% 37 47.5% 16.9% #DIV/0! 0%
6.1% 33 43.2% 18.2% #DIV/0! 0%
6.5% 40 47.0% 17.1% #DIV/0! 0%
Owner
Capex / Net Sales / Fixed Sales / Total Earnings (Rs. 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR
Capex / Depr. Capex / Sales Profit Sales / Depr. Assets Assets In billion) Sales EBIDTA
3.8% 34.0% 3.0
2.3% 18.1% 3.3
5.3% 37.4% 3.2
5.9% 42.5% 2.6
4.7% 32.0% 3.0
22.8% 163.8% 1.7 16.5%
2.2 4.2% 34.7% 51.4 2.0 5.2 18.9%
2.1 3.9% 31.6% 54.9 2.2 6.3 21.2%
2.2 3.0% 23.6% 72.6 4.0 2.4 8.0 20.3%
2.3 3.4% 25.1% 68.1 4.1 2.1 9.1 18.2%
59.1 1.7 14.1%
53.9 1.4 7.7%
47.8 1.2 4.6%
48.2 1.5 3.8%
PROFITABILITY OF RETAINED EARNINGS DU PONT ANALYSIS
5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR Return on Retention 5 Yr. Diffential 4 Yr. Diffential 3 Yr. Diffential Sales / Total
Net Profit Market Cap Opening NW Ratio Profit by NW Profit by NW Profit by NW NP / Sales Assets
51.8% 11.3% 3.0
56.9% 57.3% 12.7% 3.3
69.7% 61.2% 14.2% 3.2
63.3% 60.2% 13.9% 2.6
61.2% 65.3% 14.8% 3.0
21.6% 19.5% 60.8% 60.2% 13.9% 1.7
17.9% 17.7% 46.4% 64.9% 12.2% 2.0
18.0% 31.7% 44.5% 65.8% 12.4% 2.2
18.5% 28.6% 43.0% 65.7% 12.9% 2.4
16.3% 21.8% 40.1% 67.0% 13.6% 2.1
17.1% 19.2% 37.4% 86.0% 15.9% 1.7
14.7% 24.6% 30.5% 86.2% 16.6% 1.4
12.2% 20.6% 27.9% 18.9% 17.5% 1.2
9.6% 15.7% 25.3% 81.7% 16.9% 1.5
36.1% 60.7% 13.1% 2.5

DU PONT ANALYSIS VALUATIONS
Total Assets / Mcap / Net

NW ROA NP / NW Profit Mcap / Sales Mcap / NW EV / EBI EV / Sales Cash Yield
1.3 34.3% 43.1% 38.0 4.3 16.4 4.4 1.8%
1.4 42.3% 59.0% 31.4 4.0 18.5 4.1 2.0%
1.2 44.6% 54.1% 20.4 2.9 11.1 2.9 3.8%
1.3 36.2% 47.8% 27.9 3.9 13.3 4.0 1.4%
1.2 44.4% 53.6% 36.6 5.4 19.6 5.5 1.8%
1.8 23.1% 40.9% 34.9 4.9 14.3 5.1 -2.2%
1.6 24.1% 37.6% 31.1 3.8 11.7 26.7 4.0 1.9%
1.3 27.6% 35.9% 35.4 4.4 12.7 28.3 4.5 2.3%
1.1 30.4% 34.4% 42.0 5.4 14.4 37.1 5.5 2.3%
1.1 28.9% 31.8% 46.1 6.3 14.7 41.1 6.3 1.6%
1.1 26.8% 29.9% 38.0 6.1 11.4 34.8 6.1
1.1 23.2% 26.3% 47.1 7.8 12.4 44.6 7.9
1.1 21.8% 23.8% 50.7 8.9 12.1 47.7 9.0
1.0 25.2% 25.7% 55.0 9.3 14.1 50.9 9.3
30.0% 34.9% 38.2 4.7 14.0 33.6 4.8

Consolidated Income excluding Insurance Business Co
Revenue Employee Premium

from Impairment Benefits Establishme Other Core from Income from
Operations Finance on financial Expenses nt Expenses Expenses Operating Insurance Life Insurance
(Rs. In Cost (Rs. In instruments (Rs. In (Rs. In (Rs. In Income (Rs. In Business (Rs. Business (Rs.
billion) billion) (Rs. In billion) billion) billion) billion) billion) In billion) In billion)
2009 115.10 76.47 2.71 0.59 2.06 33.27
2010 117.95 72.89 3.17 0.69 1.83 39.38 73.56
2011 132.97 78.76 3.76 0.78 2.24 47.44 95.61
2012 182.24 115.52 4.45 0.90 2.73 58.63 111.56
2013 220.32 142.96 5.28 1.26 4.30 66.53 126.50
2014 255.83 166.08 5.97 1.43 4.65 77.70 135.40
2015 290.76 187.10 6.99 1.37 5.8413 89.45 164.27
2016 318.73 202.96 7.88 10.14 97.76 178.76
2017 350.05 219.53 9.13 12.20 109.19 217.29
2018 391.20 247.18 21.43 33.94 3.26 26.47 58.91 262.28
2019 468.25 295.25 11.66 29.67 3.21 31.13 97.33 322.53
2020
` Adj. NW EPS NW ps EPS

2020 751 2.6 2019 649
2021 870 169 2020 751 146 RONW ~ 21%
2022 1007 196 2021 870 169 Retention Ratio ~ 70%
2023 1165 226 2022 1007 196 P/E
2024 1349 262 2023 1165 226 P/B
2025 1561 303 2024 1349 262 ROA
2026 1807 351 2025 1561 303
2027 2092 407 2026 1807 351
2028 2421 471 2027 2092 407
2029 2802 545 2028 2421 471
2030 3244 630 2029 2802 545
MP @ 2030 12974 12610 MP @ 2029 11209 10894
PV 3244 3152 PV 2802 2724
CMP 1916 1916 CMP 1916 1916
Discount 41% 39% Discount 32% 30%
Implied Return 21%
Implied P/B 2.6
Consolidated Income excluding Insurance Business Co
Revenue Employee Premium

from Benefits Establishme Other Core from
Operations Finance Expenses nt Expenses Expenses Operating Insurance
(Rs. In Cost (Rs. In (Rs. In (Rs. In (Rs. In Income (Rs. In Business (Rs.
billion) billion) billion) billion) billion) billion) In billion)
2010 100 66.4 2.4 0.5 1.6 29.1
2011 100 61.8 2.7 0.6 1.7 33.3
2012 100 59.2 2.8 0.6 1.5 35.9 100
2013 100 63.4 2.4 0.5 2.0 31.7 100
2014 100 64.9 2.4 0.6 1.8 30.3 100
2015 100 64.9 2.3 0.6 2.0 30.2 100
Consolidated Income - Insurance Business
Commission
Other and operating Other
Income from Expenses Expenses Operating Claims paid expenses expenses Net Income
Non Life from Life from Non Life Income from pertaining to pertaining to pertaining to from Depreciation
Insurance Insurance Insurance Insurance Insurance Insurance Insurance Insurance and
Business (Rs. Business (Rs. Business (Rs. Business (Rs. Business (Rs. Business (Rs. Business (Rs. Business (Rs. Amortisation
In billion) In billion) In billion) In billion) In billion) In billion) In billion) In billion) (Rs. In billion)
5.36 0.36 -5.72 0.3664
57.40 17.34 117.91 -4.30 0.91
20.87 33.62 85.18 -2.32 0.49
5.97 37.98 20.94 56.96 1.65 0.51
8.87 52.21 22.79 54.38 6.00 0.54
13.36 59.70 19.24 61.04 8.78 0.47
23.02 95.51 21.12 62.45 8.21 0.47
18.57 94.86 25.25 66.83 10.40 1.20
31.23 118.88 31.19 84.91 13.53 1.08
99.50 266.94 95.09 -0.25 1.16
119.29 327.77 114.75 -0.70 1.41
Mcap / NW Multiple
Return on Opening NW Reten. Rati
15% 70%
Retention Ratio ~ 70% 17% 70%
20 19% 70%
4 20% 70%
2.5% 21% 70%
22% 70%
24% 70%
20.0% 25% 70%
Book Value
1.158 Entry Price
3.0
Mcap / NW Multiple
Return on Opening NW Reten. Rati
15% 70%
17% 70%
19% 70%
20% 70%
21% 70%
22% 70%
24% 70%
25% 70%
Book Value
Entry Price
Consolidated Income - Insurance Business
Commission
Other and operating Other
Operating Claims paid expenses expenses Net Income
Income from pertaining to pertaining to pertaining to from Depreciation
Insurance Insurance Insurance Insurance Insurance and
Business (Rs. Business (Rs. Business (Rs. Business (Rs. Business (Rs. Amortisation
In billion) In billion) In billion) In billion) In billion) (Rs. In billion)
0.8
0.4
5.4 34.0 18.8 51.1 1.5 0.3
7.0 41.3 18.0 43.0 4.7 0.2
9.9 44.1 14.2 45.1 6.5 0.2
14.0 58.1 12.9 38.0 5.0 0.2
Net gain on
Profit on sale Fees and Net gain on derecognition
Provision for of Dividend Rental commission fair value of assigned Profit before
Contingencies Investments Income (Rs. In Income (Rs. In Income (Rs. In changes (Rs. loans (Rs. In Other Income Tax (Rs. In
(Rs. In billion) (Rs. In billion) billion) billion) billion) In billion) billion) (Rs. In billion) billion)
0.5225 0.22 1.75 28.63
0.94 2.25 3.36 38.84
0.66 5.07 3.40 52.44
0.87 2.99 0.27 62.17
1.49 3.78 0.39 74.67
1.10 2.94 0.61 88.46
1.88 5.11 0.74 101.17
7.33 16.17 0.34 116.13
7.45 11.77 0.53 126.50
3.93 4.65 1.04 22.15 4.66 5.34 3.46 102.71
0.22 5.11 0.68 24.75 7.51 8.60 5.01 147.09
Mcap / NW Multiple 2.5 3 3.5

Growth Mult.
10.5% 7.7% 11.7% 15.2%
11.9% 9.0% 13.1% 16.6%
13.3% 10.4% 14.5% 18.1%
14.0% 11.1% 15.2% 18.8%
14.7% 11.8% 15.9% 19.6%
15.4% 12.5% 16.6% 20.3%
16.8% 13.8% 18.0% 21.7%
17.5% 14.5% 18.8% 22.5%
Book Value 685
Entry Price 1950
10 Yr. Time Frame

Mcap / NW Multiple 2.5 3 3.5
Growth Mult.
10.5% 9.1% 11.1% 12.8%
11.9% 10.5% 12.5% 14.2%
13.3% 11.8% 13.9% 15.7%
14.0% 12.5% 14.6% 16.4%
14.7% 13.2% 15.3% 17.1%
15.4% 13.9% 16.0% 17.8%
16.8% 15.3% 17.4% 19.2%
17.5% 16.0% 18.1% 20.0%
Book Value 685
Entry Price 1950
Profit on sale
Provision for of Profit before
Contingencies Investments Other Income Tax (Rs. In
(Rs. In billion) (Rs. In billion) (Rs. In billion) billion)
0.8 1.9 2.9 32.9
0.5 3.8 2.6 39.4
0.5 1.6 0.1 34.1
0.7 1.7 0.2 33.9
0.4 1.1 0.2 34.6
0.6 1.8 0.3 34.8
Reserves &
Surplus Balance No. of o/s
Net Profit (Rs. Capital (Rs. (Rs. In NW (Rs. In Sheet Total GNPL (Rs. In Shares (adj.)
In billion) In billion) billion) billion) (Rs. In billion) billion) (In billion) NW ps EPS Dividend ps
23.11 2.84 146.70 149.5 1112 - 1.42 105.1 16.2 6
32.41 2.87 178.95 181.8 1367 7.8 1.44 126.7 22.6 7.2
45.28 2.93 208.97 211.9 1754 9.0 1.47 144.5 30.9 9
54.63 2.95 241.29 244.2 2126 10.7 1.48 165.4 37.0 11
66.40 3.09 318.91 322.0 2519 12.0 1.55 208.2 42.9 12.5
79.48 3.12 375.75 378.9 2972 13.6 1.56 242.8 50.9 14
87.63 3.15 447.57 450.7 3495 15.4 1.57 286.2 55.6 15
101.90 3.16 505.34 508.5 3977 18.3 1.58 321.9 64.5 17
110.51 3.18 596.90 600.1 4741 23.8 1.59 377.7 69.6 18
131.11 3.35 915.38 918.7 5666 40.2 1.68 548.2 78.2 20
175.81 3.44 1113.89 1117.3 6609 47.8 1.72 649.1 102.1 21
3.46 1295.89 1299.3 1.73 751.5
4 4.5 5 Probabilities Weighted

of Growth Growth
18.3% 21.1% 23.7% 20% 2.1%
19.8% 22.6% 25.3% 20% 2.4%
21.3% 24.2% 26.8% 18% 2.4%
22.0% 24.9% 27.6% 15% 2.1%
22.8% 25.7% 28.4% 12% 1.8%
23.5% 26.5% 29.2% 8% 1.2%
25.0% 28.0% 30.7% 5% 0.8%
25.8% 28.8% 31.5% 2% 0.4%
100% 13.2%
4 4.5 5
14.3% 15.7% 16.9%

15.8% 17.1% 18.4%
17.2% 18.6% 19.9%
18.0% 19.3% 20.6%
18.7% 20.1% 21.4%
19.4% 20.8% 22.1%
20.8% 22.3% 23.6%
21.6% 23.0% 24.3%
Reserves &
Surplus Balance
Net Profit (Rs. Capital (Rs. (Rs. In NW (Rs. In Sheet Total GNPL (Rs. In
In billion) In billion) billion) billion) (Rs. In billion) billion)
27.5 0.2 13.1 13.3 100 0.6
34.1 0.2 11.9 12.1 100 0.5
30.0 0.1 11.3 11.5 100 0.5
30.1 0.1 12.7 12.8 100 0.5
31.1 0.1 12.6 12.7 100 0.5
30.1 0.1 12.8 12.9 100 0.4
Core Operations ex Insurance Ratios Insurance Business Ratios
Operating Adminitrative
Market Cap Finance Cost Admin. Cost Income to Expenses to
(Rs. in billion) Mcap / Net to Interest to Interest Cost / Income Interest Income Total Income
(30/6/X) Profit Mcap / NW Income Ratio Income Ratio Ratio Ratio Claims Ratio Ratio
667 28.9 4.5 66% 4.7% 71.1% 29%
845 26.1 4.6 62% 4.8% 66.6% 33%
1036 22.9 4.9 59% 5.1% 64.3% 36%
964 17.7 3.9 63% 4.4% 67.8% 32% 34% 66%
1222 18.4 3.8 65% 4.9% 69.8% 30% 41% 57%
1639 20.6 4.3 65% 4.7% 69.6% 30% 44% 54%
1614 18.4 3.6 64% 4.9% 69.2% 31% 58% 45%
2093 20.5 4.1 64% 5.7% 69.3% 31% 53% 47%
2462 22.3 4.1 63% 6.1% 68.8% 31% 55% 47%
3198 24.4 3.5 63% 84.9% 15%
2100 11.9 1.9 63% 79.2% 21%
21.1 3.9
nce Business Ratios
Insurane
Business Deposits & GNPA /
Profitability Return on Retention Borrowings Deposits &
Ratio Opening NW Leverage ROA ROE Ratio (In billion) Borrowings GNPL / NW
7.4 2.1% 15.5% 63.1% 963
21.7% 7.5 2.4% 17.8% 68.1% 1186 0.7% 4.3%
24.9% 8.3 2.6% 21.4% 70.8% 1542 0.6% 4.3%
1.4% 25.8% 8.7 2.6% 22.4% 70.3% 1882 0.6% 4.4%
4.4% 27.2% 7.8 2.6% 20.6% 70.9% 2197 0.5% 3.7%
5.9% 24.7% 7.8 2.7% 21.0% 72.5% 2593 0.5% 3.6%
4.4% 23.1% 7.8 2.5% 19.4% 73.0% 3045 0.5% 3.4%
5.3% 22.6% 7.8 2.6% 20.0% 73.6% 3468 0.5% 3.6%
5.4% 21.7% 7.9 2.3% 18.4% 74.1% 4141 0.6% 4.0%
21.8% 6.2 2.3% 14.3% 74.4% 4747 0.8% 4.4%
19.1% 5.9 2.7% 15.7% 79.4% 5491 0.9% 4.3%
23.3% 7.6 2.5% 19.1% 73.2%

2002 2.814 16.6 19.42 19.08 2.970 238 2.229 0.344
2003 2.821 19.6 22.45 22.02 3.876 304 2.655 0.429
2004 2.848 24.1 26.92 26.64 5.095 423 3.356 0.280
2005 3.099 42.1 45.20 44.59 6.656 514 4.392 0.606
2006 3.131 49.9 53.00 49.46 8.708 735 5.089 3.537
2007 3.194 61.1 64.33 59.78 11.415 912 6.578 4.549
2008 3.544 111.4 114.97 108.89 15.902 1332 9.070 6.085
2009 4.254 142.2 146.46 140.19 22.449 1833 19.881 6.276
2010 4.577 211 215.2 211 29.5 2225 18 4
2011 4.652 249 253.8 251 39.3 2774 17 3
2012 4.693 297 302.1 299 52.5 3411 20 4
2013 4.759 357 362.1 357 67.3 4003 23 5
2014 4.798 437 441.7 433 87.4 5036 30 8
2015 5.013 615 620.1 611 102.2 5905 34 9
2016 5.056 738 743.0 730 128.0 7303 44 13
2017 5.125 913 917.9 899 152.5 8923 59 18
2018 5.190 1058 1063.0 1037 174.9 10639 86 26
2019 5.447 1487 1492.1 1460 210.8 12445 112 32
2020 5.483 1704 1709.9 1674 262.6 15305 126 35
Average
Adj. NW EPS ` Adj. NW

2021 349 2020 305
2022 400 63 2021 349
2023 457 72 2022 400
2024 523 82 2023 457
2025 598 94 2024 523
2026 685 108 2025 598
2027 783 123 2026 685
2028 896 141 2027 783
2029 1025 161 2028 896
2030 1172 184 2029 1025
2031 1341 211 2030 1172
MP @ 2031 4829 4221 MP @ 2030 4221
PV 1207 1055 PV 1055
CMP 1000 1000 CMP 925
Implied Return 17.1% Implied Return 16.4%
Implied P/B 2.9
1.4069 13.6 2.1 0.5 57 19.1 3.0 0 12.2
1.4102 15.6 2.7 0.6 73 18.8 3.3 20.0% 13.6
1.4240 18.7 3.6 0.7 105 20.7 4.0 22.7% 15.7
1.5494 28.8 4.3 0.9 197 29.6 4.4 24.7% 11.4
1.5657 31.6 5.6 1.1 249 28.6 5.0 19.3% 13.9
1.5969 37.4 7.1 1.4 366 32.1 6.1 21.5% 14.2
1.7722 61.4 9.0 1.7 357 22.4 3.3 24.7% 11.6
2.1269 65.9 10.6 2 635 28.3 4.5 19.5% 12.5
2.2887 92.3 12.9 2.4 878 29.8 4.2 20.1% 10.3
2.3261 107.8 16.9 3.3 1171 29.8 4.7 18.2% 10.9
2.3467 127.2 22.4 4.3 1291 24.6 4.3 20.7% 11.3
2.3794 150.2 28.3 5.5 1499 22.3 4.2 22.3% 11.1
2.3946 181.0 36.5 6.85 1724 19.7 4.0 24.1% 11.4
2.5065 243.8 40.8 8 2807 27.5 4.6 23.1% 9.5
2.5282 288.7 50.6 9.5 2756 21.5 3.8 20.6% 9.8
2.5626 351.0 59.5 11 3844 25.2 4.3 20.5% 9.7
2.5951 399.6 67.4 13 4801 27.5 4.6 19.1% 10.0
2.7233 536.1 77.4 15 6656 31.6 4.6 19.8% 8.3
5.4833 305.4 47.9 4957 18.9 3.0 17.6% 9.0
25.2 4.3 21.4% 11.8
EPS
Mcap / NW Multiple
72 P/E 20 17% 80%
82 P/B 3.6 18% 80%
94 ROA 1.3% 19% 80%
108 20% 80%
123 18.0% 21% 80%
141 22% 80%
161 23% 80%
184 1.14
3689
922
1000
-8%
Deposits & GNPA /
1.2% 15.3% 76% 218 1.0% 11.5%
1.3% 17.3% 78% 282 0.9% 11.8%
1.2% 18.9% 80% 396 0.8% 12.5%
1.3% 14.7% 79% 469 0.9% 9.7%
1.2% 16.4% 80% 682 0.7% 9.6%
1.3% 17.7% 80% 848 0.8% 10.2% 25.7% 30.9% 20.7%
1.2% 13.8% 81% 1217 0.7% 7.9% 37.7% 32.6% 13.8%
1.2% 15.3% 81% 1686 1.2% 13.6% 39.4% 34.5% 15.3%
1.3% 13.7% 81% 2009 0.9% 8.4% 36.5% 34.7% 13.7%
1.4% 15.5% 80% 2520 0.7% 6.7% 38.4% 35.2% 15.2%
1.5% 17.4% 81% 3108 0.6% 6.6% 37.9% 35.7% 17.2%
1.7% 18.6% 81% 3641 0.6% 6.4% 26.8% 33.4% 20.7%
1.7% 19.8% 81% 4595 0.7% 6.8% 25.3% 31.2% 22.2%
1.7% 16.5% 80% 5285 0.7% 5.5% 23.7% 28.2% 18.2%
1.8% 17.2% 81% 6560 0.7% 5.9% 23.8% 26.7% 18.5%
1.7% 16.6% 82% 8006 0.7% 6.4% 24.7% 23.8% 16.7%
1.6% 16.5% 81% 9576 0.9% 8.1% 23.7% 21.1% 15.8%
1.7% 14.1% 81% 10953 1.0% 7.5% 27.5% 19.2% 12.0%
1.7% 15.4% 13595 0.9% 7.4% 22.3% 20.8% 15.1%
1.4% 16.3% 80.2% 8.3% 30.2% 31.3%
5 Yr. Time Frame

Mcap / NW Multiple 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 Probabilities Weighted
12.8% 6.9% 10.8% 14.3% 17.4% 20.2% 22.8% 20% 2.6%
13.6% 7.6% 11.6% 15.1% 18.2% 21.1% 23.6% 20% 2.7%
14.4% 8.4% 12.4% 15.9% 19.1% 21.9% 24.5% 18% 2.6%
15.2% 9.1% 13.2% 16.7% 19.9% 22.8% 25.4% 15% 2.3%
16.0% 9.9% 14.0% 17.6% 20.7% 23.6% 26.2% 12% 1.9%
16.8% 10.7% 14.8% 18.4% 21.6% 24.5% 27.1% 8% 1.3%
17.6% 11.4% 15.6% 19.2% 22.4% 25.3% 28.0% 5% 0.9%
18.4% 12.2% 16.3% 20.0% 23.2% 26.2% 28.9% 2% 0.4%
Book Value 305 100% 14.7%
Entry Price 1000
Ratio of 30d
EMA to 50d
3-Jan-20 1,268.40
6-Jan-20 1,240.95
7-Jan-20 1,260.60
8-Jan-20 1,257.30
9-Jan-20 1,271.40
10-Jan-20 1,282.70
13-Jan-20 1,286.00
14-Jan-20 1,289.50
15-Jan-20 1,284.25
16-Jan-20 1,287.65
17-Jan-20 1,278.15
20-Jan-20 1,254.90
21-Jan-20 1,244.35
22-Jan-20 1,240.85
23-Jan-20 1,244.85
24-Jan-20 1,244.55
27-Jan-20 1,213.20
28-Jan-20 1,223.20
29-Jan-20 1,235.85
30-Jan-20 1,226.05
31-Jan-20 1,226.30
1-Feb-20 1,198.70
3-Feb-20 1,192.80
4-Feb-20 1,229.80
5-Feb-20 1,244.65
6-Feb-20 1,239.80
7-Feb-20 1,242.20
10-Feb-20 1,240.30
11-Feb-20 1,240.60
12-Feb-20 1,249.00 1,248
13-Feb-20 1,241.40 1,248
14-Feb-20 1,219.35 1,246
17-Feb-20 1,217.15 1,244
18-Feb-20 1,213.25 1,242
19-Feb-20 1,227.20 1,241
20-Feb-20 1,217.10 1,239
24-Feb-20 1,209.95 1,237
25-Feb-20 1,200.30 1,235
26-Feb-20 1,199.25 1,232
27-Feb-20 1,199.45 1,230
28-Feb-20 1,177.65 1,227
2-Mar-20 1,179.60 1,224
3-Mar-20 1,181.80 1,221
4-Mar-20 1,148.85 1,216
5-Mar-20 1,151.35 1,212
6-Mar-20 1,134.90 1,207
9-Mar-20 1,107.30 1,200
11-Mar-20 1,113.80 1,194
12-Mar-20 1,021.30 1,183
13-Mar-20 1,069.80 1,217 1,175
16-Mar-20 999.50 1,209 1,163
17-Mar-20 975.10 1,199 1,151 0.9596
18-Mar-20 876.90 1,186 1,133 0.9546 (50)
19-Mar-20 895.55 1,175 1,117 0.9506 (40)
20-Mar-20 882.85 1,163 1,101 0.9468 (39)
23-Mar-20 771.55 1,147 1,079 0.9405 (62)
24-Mar-20 767.70 1,132 1,058 0.9348 (57)
25-Mar-20 856.75 1,121 1,045 0.9320 (28)
26-Mar-20 901.10 1,112 1,035 0.9308 (12)
27-Mar-20 904.45 1,104 1,027 0.9299 (9)
30-Mar-20 901.00 1,096 1,018 0.9291 (8)
30-Mar-20 831.65 1,085 1,006 0.9267 (24)
31-Mar-20 861.90 1,076 996 0.9255 (12)
1-Apr-20 829.65 1,067 985 0.9236 (18)
3-Apr-20 813.85 1,056 974 0.9217 (20)
7-Apr-20 896.10 1,050 969 0.9224 7
8-Apr-20 888.90 1,044 963 0.9230 6
9-Apr-20 925.05 1,039 961 0.9247 18
13-Apr-20 909.00 1,034 957 0.9261 13
15-Apr-20 863.30 1,027 951 0.9261 0
16-Apr-20 879.75 1,021 946 0.9268 7
17-Apr-20 910.30 1,017 944 0.9285 17
20-Apr-20 944.85 1,014 944 0.9312 27
21-Apr-20 921.65 1,010 942 0.9331 19
22-Apr-20 928.60 1,007 942 0.9352 21
23-Apr-20 954.95 1,005 942 0.9380 28
24-Apr-20 938.05 1,002 942 0.9402 22
27-Apr-20 929.70 999 941 0.9421 19
28-Apr-20 931.40 996 941 0.9440 19
29-Apr-20 977.10 996 943 0.9472 32
30-Apr-20 1,001.80 996 947 0.9509 37
4-May-20 923.00 993 945 0.9521 12
5-May-20 911.45 990 943 0.9529 9
6-May-20 946.40 988 943 0.9548 19
7-May-20 925.00 985 942 0.9560 12
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
13-Mar-20 20-Mar-20 27-Mar-20 3-Apr-20 10-Apr-20 17-Apr-20 24-Apr-20 1-May-20
24-Apr-20 1-May-20
DATA
Raw
Materials / Manufactur
Cost of ing, Selling Employee
materials etc. Changes in benefits Other
Net Sales consumed Purchases Expenses inventories expense Expenses EBITDA
(Rs. In (Rs. In of Stock- (Rs. In (Rs. In (Rs. In (Rs. In (Rs. In
billion) billion) in-Trade billion) billion) billion) billion) billion)
2002 52.3 19.1 15.1 18.1
2003 61.7 22.8 17.1 21.7
2004 68.9 24.1 20.5 24.3
2005 80.6 27.9 24.3 28.5
2006 103.2 40.2 28.8 34.2
2007 128.7 50.9 35.0 42.9
2008 146.6 59.4 41.5 45.6
2009 163.3 59.1 56.0 48.3
2010 191.4 69.7 58.9 62.7
2011 225.7 71.4 13.0 -2.7 17.1 50.4 76.7
2012 265.5 78.1 19.2 19.2 -0.9 19.4 57.5 72.9
2013 316.3 90.7 33.1 -2.6 21.5 61.9 111.7
2014 353.2 103.8 29.8 -1.1 25.0 65.2 130.5
2015 388.3 110.9 39.2 -2.4 27.7 70.9 142.0
2016 391.9 111.7 26.0 -2.0 34.4 77.3 144.5
2017 428.0 119.8 34.8 5.9 36.3 76.9 154.4
2018 434.5 119.4 28.8 10.3 37.6 73.5 164.8
2019 483.5 134.0 42.2 -2.0 41.8 83.5 184.1
Average
Adj. NW EPS ` Adj. NW EPS

2020 54 2019 48
2021 60 13 2020 54 12 RONW ~ 25%
2022 66 15 2021 60 13 Retention Ratio ~ 45%
2023 74 17 2022 66 15 P/E 25
2024 82 18 2023 74 17 P/B 6.3
2025 91 21 2024 82 18 ROA 20%
2026 102 23 2025 91 21
2027 113 25 2026 102 23
2028 126 28 2027 113 25
2029 140 31 2028 126 28
2030 156 35 2029 140 31
MP @ 2030 982 876 MP @ 2029 883 787 25%
PV 245 219 PV 221 197
CMP 160 200 CMP 200 200
Implied Dividend Yld. 2.6%

Actual Dividend Yld. 3.1%
Net Cash
Market Flow from
Net Profit Total Cap (Rs. in No. of o/s Operations
(Rs. In NW (Rs. In Assets (Rs. billion) Shares (In (Rs. In
billion) billion) In billion) (30/6/X) billion) NW ps EPS Dividend ps billion)
11.6 43.9 48.0 157 0.2454 179.1 47.3 13.5 18.4
13.7 53.9 57.5 190 0.2475 217.7 55.5 15 18.5
16.2 64.5 68.3 220 0.2477 260.5 65.2 20 20.0
22.5 79.4 86.3 413 0.2482 319.8 90.5 31 15.9
23.0 92.2 97.8 683 3.7552 24.6 6.1 2.65 21.0
27.6 106.5 114.3 583 3.7622 28.3 7.3 3.1 22.5
31.6 122.9 131.7 708 3.7686 32.6 8.4 3.5 30.1
33.2 140.3 152.1 721 3.7744 37.2 8.8 3.7 35.0
41.7 144.6 154.8 1165 3.8182 37.9 10.9 10 44.4
50.2 164.9 176.9 1571 7.7381 21.3 6.5 4.45 55.1
62.6 194.6 207.8 1955 7.8184 24.9 8.0 4.5 59.8
76.1 231.6 248.3 2687 7.9018 29.3 9.6 5.25 71.0
88.9 272.4 290.0 2704 7.9532 34.2 11.2 6 73.4
96.6 317.4 338.3 2525 8.0155 39.6 12.1 6.25 98.4
95.0 426.8 450.3 2736 8.0472 53.0 11.8 8.5 98.0
104.8 464.1 488.2 3790 12.1474 38.2 8.6 4.75 106.3
114.9 525.1 550.4 3246 12.2043 43.0 9.4 5.15 131.7
128.4 591.4 617.9 3359 12.2586 48.2 10.5 5.75 125.8
2.8%
1.1125
CASH GROWTH
FLOWS & PROFITABILITY
Capital Free Cash Net Cash

Expenditure Flow (Rs. In EBIDTA EBIDTA NP Flow
(Rs. In billion) billion) Margin Growth Margin NP Growth FCF Margin Growth Accrual Ratio
5.3 13.1 34.6% 0.0% 22.2% 0.0% 25.0% 0.0% 0.6
5.1 13.3 35.2% 20.0% 22.2% 18.2% 21.6% 0.2% 0.7
5.2 14.8 35.3% 11.8% 23.5% 17.7% 21.5% 8.3% 0.8
5.4 10.5 35.3% 17.1% 27.9% 38.9% 13.0% -20.6% 1.4
7.3 13.7 33.1% 20.1% 22.2% 2.2% 13.3% 32.1% 1.1
17.9 4.6 33.3% 25.5% 21.4% 20.0% 3.6% 7.2% 1.2
23.3 6.8 31.1% 6.4% 21.5% 14.6% 4.6% 33.8% 1.1
17.6 17.4 29.6% 5.9% 20.4% 5.3% 10.6% 16.4% 1.0
12.5 31.9 32.8% 29.8% 21.8% 25.4% 16.7% 27.0% 0.9
15.0 40.1 34.0% 22.3% 22.2% 20.4% 17.8% 24.0% 0.9
24.7 35.1 27.5% -5.0% 23.6% 24.7% 13.2% 8.5% 1.0
26.4 44.6 35.3% 53.3% 24.1% 21.6% 14.1% 18.8% 1.1
28.9 44.6 37.0% 16.8% 25.2% 16.9% 12.6% 3.4% 1.2
33.0 65.4 36.6% 8.8% 24.9% 8.7% 16.8% 34.0% 1.0
23.5 74.5 36.9% 1.8% 24.2% -1.7% 19.0% -0.4% 1.0
31.2 75.1 36.1% 6.8% 24.5% 10.3% 17.5% 8.5% 1.0
28.8 102.9 37.9% 6.8% 26.5% 9.7% 23.7% 23.9% 0.9
31.7 94.1 38.1% 11.7% 26.5% 11.7% 19.5% -4.4% 1.0
33.5% 23.5% 1.0

5 Yr. 4 Yr.
5 Yr CAGR Return on Diffential Diffential
5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR Market Opening Retention Profit by Profit by
CFO / EBIDTA Sales EBIDTA Net Profit Cap NW Ratio NW NW
102% 71.5%
85% 31.2% 73.0%
82% 30.0% 69.3%
56% 34.8% 65.7%
61% 28.9% 56.6% 23.5%
52% 19.7% 18.8% 18.9% 30.0% 29.9% 57.7% 25.5% 26.3%
66% 18.9% 16.0% 18.1% 30.1% 29.7% 58.2% 25.9% 26.4%
72% 18.8% 14.7% 15.5% 26.8% 27.1% 58.0% 22.6% 17.7%
71% 18.9% 17.1% 13.2% 23.1% 29.7% 8.4% 29.5% 35.8%
72% 17.0% 17.6% 16.9% 18.1% 34.7% 31.4% 37.5% 38.7%
82% 15.6% 11.2% 17.8% 27.4% 38.0% 43.8% 39.8% 43.2%
64% 16.6% 19.6% 19.2% 30.5% 39.1% 45.5% 40.9% 46.9%
56% 16.7% 22.0% 21.7% 30.3% 38.4% 46.3% 42.1% 37.0%
69% 15.2% 17.8% 18.3% 16.7% 35.5% 48.2% 31.8% 30.5%
68% 11.7% 13.5% 13.6% 11.7% 29.9% 28.0% 17.1% 14.0%
69% 10.0% 16.2% 10.9% 14.2% 24.5% 44.9% 15.7% 12.3%
80% 6.6% 8.1% 8.6% 3.9% 24.8% 45.3% 13.2% 10.3%
68% 6.5% 7.1% 7.6% 4.4% 24.4% 45.1% 12.4% 11.6%
70.0% 25.0% 45.0%

NED EARNINGS DU PONT ANALYSIS VALUATIONS
3 Yr.
Diffential Sales / Total
Profit by Total Assets / Mcap / Net Mcap /
NW NP / Sales Assets NW ROA NP / NW Profit Sales Mcap / NW
22.2% 1.1 1.1 24.2% 26.4% 13.5 3.0 3.6
22.2% 1.1 1.1 23.9% 25.5% 13.8 3.1 3.5
23.5% 1.0 1.1 23.6% 25.0% 13.6 3.2 3.4
30.6% 27.9% 0.9 1.1 26.0% 28.3% 18.4 5.1 5.2
24.1% 22.2% 1.1 1.1 23.5% 24.9% 29.8 6.6 7.4
27.2% 21.4% 1.1 1.1 24.1% 25.9% 21.2 4.5 5.5
21.0% 21.5% 1.1 1.1 24.0% 25.7% 22.4 4.8 5.8
21.4% 20.4% 1.1 1.1 21.9% 23.7% 21.7 4.4 5.1
37.1% 21.8% 1.2 1.1 26.9% 28.8% 27.9 6.1 8.1
44.3% 22.2% 1.3 1.1 28.4% 30.4% 31.3 7.0 9.5
54.0% 23.6% 1.3 1.1 30.1% 32.2% 31.2 7.4 10.0
39.5% 24.1% 1.3 1.1 30.6% 32.9% 35.3 8.5 11.6
36.0% 25.2% 1.2 1.1 30.7% 32.6% 30.4 7.7 9.9
27.7% 24.9% 1.1 1.1 28.6% 30.4% 26.1 6.5 8.0
9.7% 24.2% 0.9 1.1 21.1% 22.3% 28.8 7.0 6.4
8.3% 24.5% 0.9 1.1 21.5% 22.6% 36.2 8.9 8.2
8.8% 26.5% 0.8 1.0 20.9% 21.9% 28.2 7.5 6.2
20.3% 26.5% 0.8 1.0 20.8% 21.7% 26.2 6.9 5.7
23.0% 1.1 26.0% 24.1 5.6 6.9

EV / Sales Cash Yield
3.1 8.3%
3.1 7.0%
3.2 6.7%
5.2 2.5%
6.7 2.0%
4.6 0.8%
4.9 1.0%
4.5 2.4%
6.1 2.7%
7.0 2.6%
7.4 1.8%
8.5 1.7%
7.7 1.6%
6.6 2.6%
7.0 2.7%
8.9 2.0%
7.5 3.2%
7.0 2.8%
5.6
2007 2.816 31.068 33.884 31.221 6.542 733 4.187 2.663
2008 3.577 83.941 87.518 85.035 10.591 1096 4.946 2.483
2009 3.590 98.355 101.945 98.674 18.129 1477 8.978 3.271
2010 4.052 155.838 159.889 155.699 24.781 1806 13.180 4.190
2011 4.105 184.841 188.946 184.843 33.399 2426 15.994 4.104
2012 4.132 222.685 226.817 222.091 42.198 2854 18.063 4.726
2013 4.680 326.904 331.584 324.542 52.348 3406 23.934 7.041
2014 4.698 379.262 383.960 373.714 63.101 3864 31.464 10.246
2015 4.741 442.024 446.765 433.598 74.479 4619 41.102 13.167
2016 4.766 526.883 531.649 506.428 83.497 5255 60.875 25.221
2017 4.790 552.835 557.625 471.360 36.793 6015 212.805 86.266
2018 4.795 556.920 561.716 421.192 34.760 6353 274.023 140.523
GNPA ps 114
Adj. NW EPS Adj. NW EPS

2019 229 2018 197 RONW ~ 20%
2020 265 46 2019 229 39 Retention Ratio ~ 80%
2021 307 53 2020 265 46 P/E
2022 357 61 2021 307 53 P/B
2023 414 71 2022 357 61 ROA
2024 480 83 2023 414 71
2025 557 96 2024 480 83
2026 646 111 2025 557 96
2027 749 129 2026 646 111
2028 869 150 2027 749 129
2029 1008 174 2028 869 150
MP @ 2029 1915 1738 MP @ 2028 1651 1498
PV 479 435 PV 413 375
CMP 625 625 CMP 450 450
Discount -30.5% -43.8% Discount -9.0% -20.1%
Implied Return 12%
Implied P/B 2.7
Adj. NW (Rs. In billion) Net Profit (Rs. In billion) Balance Sheet Total (Rs. In bi
Axis HDFC Bank ICICI Axis HDFC Bank ICICI
2007 31.22118 59.7828 219.46038 6.542476 11.4145 27.60634
2008 85.03546 108.8878 411.58226 10.59142 15.9018 33.9823
2009 98.67364 140.1871 421.58534 18.12932 22.44939 35.7695
2010 155.6994 211.2753 473.955 24.78141 29.48701 46.70295
2011 184.8426 250.79945 528.44202 33.39907 39.26401 60.93267
2012 222.0907 298.58113 593.80111 42.19779 52.47022 76.42936
2013 324.5424 357.4519 665.27 52.3476 67.2628 96
2014 373.7143 433.466 731.2531 63.0917 87.4349 110.4137
0.2816 110.9 23.2 4.5 171 26.1 5.5 21.6
0.3577 237.7 29.6 6 216 20.4 2.5 31.3% 12.5
0.3590 274.9 50.5 10 299 16.5 3.0 20.7% 14.5
0.4105 379.2 60.4 12 510 20.6 3.3 24.3% 11.3
0.4105 450.2 81.4 14 530 15.9 2.9 20.9% 12.8
0.4132 537.5 102.1 16 420 9.9 1.9 22.3% 12.6
0.4680 693.5 111.9 18 473 9.0 1.5 23.1% 10.3
0.4698 795.4 134.3 20 714 11.3 1.9 19.0% 10.1
2.3705 182.9 31.4 4.6 948 12.7 2.2 19.4% 10.3
2.3829 212.5 35.0 5 1122 13.4 2.2 18.7% 9.9
2.3951 196.8 15.4 5 1111 30.2 2.4 6.9% 10.8
2.3977 175.7 14.5 1499 43.1 3.6 6.2% 11.3
15.6 2.7 21.0%

10
1.9
1.3%
19%
Balance Sheet Total (Rs. In billion) GNPA (Rs. In billion) Scale of Adj. NW wrt ICICI
Axis HDFC Bank ICICI Axis HDFC Bank ICICI Axis
732.5598 912.3561 3943.347 4.1867 6.5776 41.68 7.029214
1095.664 1331.766 4856.166 4.9461 9.0697 75.88 4.840125
1476.972 1832.708 4826.91 8.9777 19.8807 98.03 4.272522
1805.867 2224.586 4893.473 13.18 18.1676 96.27 3.044039
2425.667 2773.526 5337.679 15.9942 16.9434 101.14 2.858876
2854.165 3410.55 6041.914 18.063 19.9939 95.63 2.673687
3405.607 4003.319 6748.217 23.9342 23.3464 97.6339 2.049871
3832.449 5036.2 7475.257 31.4641 29.8928 105.0584 1.956717
Deposits & GNPA /
Retention Borrowings (In Deposits & GNPA / Net 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr. Diffential
ROA ROE Ratio billion) Borrowings Worth Book Value 5 Yr CAGR NP Profit by NW
0.9% 19.3% 80.6% 699 0.6% 12.4% 0 0 0
1.0% 12.1% 79.7% 1008 0.5% 5.7% 0 0 0
1.2% 17.8% 80.2% 1375 0.7% 8.8% 0 0 0
1.4% 15.5% 80.1% 1646 0.8% 8.2% 0 0 0
1.4% 17.7% 82.8% 2237 0.7% 8.5% 0 0 0
1.5% 18.6% 84.3% 2627 0.7% 8.0% 48.1% 45.2% 18.7%
1.5% 15.8% 83.9% 3074 0.8% 7.2% 30.7% 37.7% 17.4%
1.6% 16.4% 85.1% 3480 0.9% 8.2% 30.5% 28.3% 16.4%
1.6% 16.7% 85.4% 4173 1.0% 9.2% 22.7% 24.6% 17.9%
1.6% 15.7% 85.7% 4723 1.3% 11.5% 22.3% 20.1% 15.6%
0.6% 6.6% 67.5% 5457 3.9% 38.2% 16.2% -2.7% -2.2%
0.5% 6.2%
1.3% 16.4% 83.4% 8.6%
Mcap / NW Multiple 1 1.5 2 2.5

Return on Opening NW Reten. Ratio Growth Mult.
14% 80% 11% -4.8% 3.2% 9.3% 14.3%
15% 80% 12% -4.1% 4.0% 10.1% 15.1%
16% 80% 13% -3.5% 4.7% 10.9% 16.0%
17% 80% 14% -2.8% 5.4% 11.7% 16.8%
18% 80% 14% -2.1% 6.2% 12.5% 17.6%
19% 80% 15% -1.4% 6.9% 13.3% 18.4%
20% 80% 16% -0.7% 7.7% 14.0% 19.3%
21% 80% 17% 0.0% 8.4% 14.8% 20.1%
Book Value 212
Entry Price 462
of Adj. NW wrt ICICI Scale of B/S wrt ICICI ROA

HDFC Bank ICICI Axis HDFC Bank ICICI Axis HDFC Bank
3.670962 1 5.382969807 4.322158 1 0.008931 0.012511
3.779875 1 4.432167797 3.6464108 1 0.009667 0.01194
3.007305 1 3.268112707 2.6337586 1 0.012275 0.012249
2.243305 1 2.709764197 2.1997233 1 0.013723 0.013255
2.10703 1 2.20049979 1.9245101 1 0.013769 0.014157
1.988743 1 2.116876182 1.7715365 1 0.014785 0.015385
1.861146 1 1.98150225 1.6856556 1 0.015371 0.016802
1.686991 1 1.950517018 1.4843051 1 0.016463 0.017361
3 3.5
18.6% 22.3%
19.4% 23.2%
20.3% 24.0%
21.1% 24.9%
22.0% 25.8%
22.8% 26.7%
23.7% 27.6%
24.5% 28.4%
GNPA / Adj. NW
ICICI Axis HDFC Bank ICICI
0.007001 0.134098 0.110025 0.18992
0.006998 0.058165 0.083294 0.184362
0.00741 0.090984 0.141815 0.232527
0.009544 0.08465 0.08599 0.203121
0.011416 0.086529 0.067558 0.191393
0.01265 0.081332 0.066963 0.161047
0.014226 0.073748 0.065313 0.146758
0.014771 0.084193 0.068962 0.143669
DATA
Profit before
Personnel Other Depreciation / Exceptional
Sales (Rs. In expenses (Rs. Establish. expenses expenses (Rs. EBITDA (Rs. In Amortisation Items (Rs. In
billion) In billion) (Rs. In billion) In billion) billion) (Rs. In billion) billion)
2001 [Y/E Mar.] 0.441
2002 0.684
2003 0.714
2004 0.845
2005 1.193
2005 [9 mon.;Y/E Dec.]] 1.405
2006 [Y/E Dec.] 2.873
2007 4.043
2008 5.146
2009 5.373 2.079 0.549 0.752 1.993 0.149 1.845
2010 6.284 2.582 0.713 0.839 2.151 0.213 1.939
2011 6.392 2.450 0.658 1.022 2.261 0.217 2.045
2012 7.366 2.733 0.652 1.265 2.716 0.239 2.476
2013 11.106 5.155 0.861 1.485 3.606 0.379 3.226
2014 12.534 5.929 0.927 1.792 3.885 0.361 3.524
2015 13.799 6.938 0.939 1.927 3.996 0.371 3.625
2016 15.475 7.877 3.164 4.433 0.545 3.888
2017 16.585 8.459 3.573 4.553 0.466 4.086
2018 17.485 8.874 3.899 4.712 0.428 4.284
2.7 3.6 2.6 2.1 2.1
Average
Goemetric Mean
n on Invested Capital (ROIC) = Growth/Retention Ratio
10 Yr. Agg. Cap. Exp. / Net Profit
NW ps EPS NW ps EPS
2019 180 2018 158
2020 205 63 2019 180 55 RONW ~ 35%
2021 233 72 2020 205 63 Retention Ratio ~ 40%
2022 266 82 2021 233 72 P/E
2023 303 93 2022 266 82 P/B
2024 346 106 2023 303 93 ROA
2025 394 121 2024 346 106
2026 449 138 2025 394 121
2027 512 157 2026 449 138
2028 584 179 2027 512 157
2029 666 204 2028 584 179
MP @ 2029 6659 6542 MP @ 2028 5841 5739
PV 1665 1635 PV 1460 1435
CMP 1452 1452 CMP 1452 1452
Implied Return 16%
Implied P/B 8.1
Profit before
Personnel Other Exceptional
Sales expenses Establish. Expenses expenses EBITDA Dep. Items
2009 100 38.7 10.2 14.0 37.1 2.8 34.3
2010 100 41.1 11.3 13.3 34.2 3.4 30.8
2011 100 38.3 10.3 16.0 35.4 3.4 32.0
2012 100 37.1 8.9 17.2 36.9 3.2 33.6
2013 100 46.4 7.8 13.4 32.5 3.4 29.0
2014 100 47.3 7.4 14.3 31.0 2.9 28.1
2015 100 50.3 6.8 14.0 29.0 2.7 26.3
2016 100 50.9 0.0 20.4 28.6 3.5 25.1
CASH FLOWS
Exceptional /
Prior Period Other Profit before Market Cap
Finance Cost Items (Rs. In Income. (Rs. Tax (Rs. In Tax Expense Net Profit (Rs. NW (Rs. In Total Assets (Rs. in billion)
(Rs. In billion) billion) In billion) billion) (Rs. In billion) In billion) billion) (Rs. In billion) 1/4/X+1
0.089 0.649 0.649
0.116 0.690 0.724
0.167 0.786 0.826
0.193 0.921 0.957 3.1
0.198 1.050 1.083 4.4
0.245 1.319 1.353 10.1
0.614 1.889 1.919 15.2
0.837 2.764 2.764 26.6
1.406 3.575 3.575 17.7
- 0.230 2.075 0.467 1.608 4.338 4.338 32.1
-0.027 0.730 2.641 0.587 2.055 3.945 3.945 43
- 0.430 2.475 0.610 1.865 3.652 3.793 69
- 0.226 2.703 0.774 1.929 4.545 4.693 77
0.659 0.366 4.252 1.273 2.978 6.745 6.986 81
- 0.237 3.761 1.076 2.684 8.483 8.835 146
- 0.432 4.057 1.205 2.852 8.486 8.810 132
- - 0.497 4.385 1.442 2.943 9.382 9.618 136
0.004 - 0.254 4.336 1.292 3.044 10.486 10.661 100
0.022 - 0.734 4.996 1.365 3.631 11.363 11.578 108
2.0 1.9 3.1 3.1 1.6
7.7 7.8
Mcap / NW Multiple 5 6
RONW ~ 35% 28% 40% 11.2% 0.4% 4.1%
Retention Ratio ~ 40% 30% 40% 12.0% 1.1% 4.8%
32 32% 40% 12.8% 1.8% 5.6%
10 35% 40% 14.0% 2.9% 6.7%
31% 36% 40% 14.4% 3.2% 7.1%
37% 40% 14.8% 3.6% 7.5%
38% 40% 15.2% 4.0% 7.8%
40% 40% 16.0% 4.7% 8.6%
31% Book Value 180
Entry Price 1500
1.14
10 Yr. Time Frame
28% 40% 11.2% 5.6% 7.6%
30% 40% 12.0% 6.4% 8.4%
32% 40% 12.8% 7.2% 9.1%
35% 40% 14.0% 8.3% 10.3%
36% 40% 14.4% 8.7% 10.7%
37% 40% 14.8% 9.1% 11.1%
38% 40% 15.2% 9.4% 11.5%
40% 40% 16.0% 10.2% 12.2%
Book Value 180
Entry Price 1500
Other Net Cash Flow

Exceptional Income. (Rs. Profit before from
Items In billion) Tax Tax Expense Net Profit NW Total Assets Operations
0.0 4.3 38.6 8.7 29.9 100 100 32.4
-0.4 11.6 42.0 9.3 32.7 100 100 23.3
0.0 6.7 38.7 9.5 29.2 96 100 37.3
0.0 3.1 36.7 10.5 26.2 97 100 20.2
5.9 3.3 38.3 11.5 26.8 97 100 22.9
0.0 1.9 30.0 8.6 21.4 96 100 21.1
0.0 3.1 29.4 8.7 20.7 96 100 19.6
0.0 3.2 28.3 9.3 19.0 98 100 18.0
CASH FLOWS
Net Cash Flow

No. of o/s from Capital
Shares (In Dividend ps Operations Expenditure (Rs. In Free Cash Flow Personnel Administn.
billion) NW ps (Adj.) EPS (Adj.) (Adj.) (Rs. In billion) billion) (Rs. In billion) Margin Margin
0.0710 9.1 1.3 0.4 0.000 0.000 0.000
0.0710 9.7 1.6 0.55 0.245 0.112 0.133
0.0710 11.1 2.3 0.75 0.254 0.064 0.190
0.0710 13.0 2.7 0.9 0.273 0.180 0.093
0.0710 14.8 2.8 1.25 0.194 0.052 0.141
0.0710 18.6 3.5 1 0.300 0.073 0.226
0.0710 26.6 8.7 1.5 0.625 0.144 0.481
0.0710 39.0 11.8 2.5 0.709 0.253 0.456
0.0710 50.4 19.8 7 1.647 0.219 1.427
0.0710 61.1 22.7 10 1.742 0.760 0.982 38.7% 24.2%
0.0710 55.6 29.0 10 1.462 0.499 0.964 41.1% 24.7%
0.0701 52.1 26.6 11 2.385 0.235 2.150 38.3% 26.3%
0.0702 64.7 27.5 13 1.486 0.206 1.280 37.1% 26.0%
0.0707 95.5 42.2 19 2.538 0.178 2.361 46.4% 21.1%
0.0714 118.9 37.6 20 2.646 0.212 2.435 47.3% 21.7%
0.0712 119.2 40.0 23 2.704 0.262 2.442 50.3% 20.8%
0.0713 131.5 41.3 27 2.790 0.233 2.557 50.9% 20.4%
0.0717 146.2 42.5 28 2.907 0.339 2.568 51.0% 21.5%
0.0721 157.6 50.3 30 3.785 0.335 3.451 50.8% 22.3%
3.0 1.9 1.6 1.4
7 8 9 10 Probabilities Weighted
of Growth Growth
7.3% 10.2% 12.9% 15.3% 20% 2.2%
8.1% 11.0% 13.7% 16.1% 20% 2.4%
8.9% 11.8% 14.5% 16.9% 18% 2.3%
10.0% 13.0% 15.7% 18.2% 15% 2.1%
10.4% 13.4% 16.1% 18.6% 12% 1.7%
10.8% 13.8% 16.5% 19.0% 8% 1.2%
11.2% 14.2% 16.9% 19.4% 5% 0.8%
12.0% 15.0% 17.7% 20.3% 2% 0.3%
100% 13.0%
10 Yr. Time Frame
7 8 9 10 Probabilities Weighted
of Growth Growth
9.3% 10.7% 12.0% 13.2% 20% 2.2%
10.0% 11.5% 12.8% 14.0% 20% 2.4%
10.8% 12.3% 13.6% 14.9% 18% 2.3%
12.0% 13.5% 14.9% 16.1% 15% 2.1%
12.4% 13.9% 15.3% 16.5% 12% 1.7%
12.8% 14.3% 15.7% 16.9% 8% 1.2%
13.2% 14.7% 16.1% 17.3% 5% 0.8%
14.0% 15.5% 16.9% 18.1% 2% 0.3%
100% 13.0%
Capital
Expenditure Free Cash Flow
14.1 18.3
7.9 15.3
3.7 33.6
2.8 17.4
1.6 21.3
1.7 19.4
1.9 17.7
1.5 16.5
Franchise
Profit before Value (Cost of
EBIDTA Exceptional Net Cash Flow Capital @ Franchise
Margin NP Margin Items Growth NP Growth FCF Margin FCF / NW Growth 15%) Value / Sales
20.3% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1 -12%
16.9% 29.1% 19.4% 20.4% 0.0% 0.1 12%
23.4% 44.3% 26.6% 27.6% 3.8% 0.3 46%
22.9% 15.9% 11.0% 11.8% 7.5% 0.4 43%
16.6% 2.7% 11.9% 15.4% -29.2% 0.3 23%
17.4% 23.5% 16.1% 21.6% 54.8% 0.3 22%
21.4% 150.7% 16.7% 36.5% 108.5% 2.2 77%
20.7% 36.2% 11.3% 24.1% 13.4% 2.8 70%
27.3% 68.0% 27.7% 51.6% 132.3% 5.8 113%
37.1% 29.9% 14.4% 18.3% 27.5% 5.8% 6.4 119%
34.2% 32.7% 5.1% 27.8% 15.3% 22.2% -16.0% 9.8 155%
35.4% 29.2% 5.5% -9.2% 33.6% 54.5% 63.1% 8.8 137%
36.9% 26.2% 21.1% 3.4% 17.4% 35.1% -37.7% 8.3 113%
32.5% 26.8% 30.3% 54.4% 21.3% 51.9% 70.8% 13.1 118%
31.0% 21.4% 9.2% -9.9% 19.4% 36.1% 4.3% 9.4 75%
29.0% 20.7% 2.9% 6.2% 17.7% 28.8% 2.2% 10.5 76%
28.6% 19.0% 7.3% 3.2% 16.5% 30.1% 3.2% 10.2 66%
27.5% 18.4% 5.1% 3.4% 15.5% 27.4% 4.2% 9.8 59%
27.0% 20.8% 4.8% 19.3% 19.7% 32.9% 30.2% 12.8 73%
24.0%
Owner
Capex / Net 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR Return on Retention Earnings (Rs.
Accrual Ratio Capex / Sales Profit Sales Net Profit Market Cap Opening NW Ratio In billion)
68.3%
0.5 0.2 1.0 17.8% 66.2%
0.7 0.1 0.4 24.2% 68.1%
0.7 0.2 0.9 24.6% 66.9%
1.0 0.0 0.3 21.6% 55.3%
0.8 0.1 0.3 26.1% 22.3% 23.3% 71.0%
1.0 0.1 0.2 33.3% 39.7% 46.6% 82.7%
1.2 0.1 0.3 41.5% 38.1% 44.3% 78.8%
0.9 0.0 0.2 43.5% 48.7% 41.6% 50.9% 64.7%
0.9 0.1 0.5 35.1% 51.9% 49.0% 45.0% 55.9% 1.00
1.4 0.1 0.2 34.9% 53.0% 33.4% 47.4% 65.5% 1.80
0.8 0.0 0.1 17.3% 24.9% 35.3% 47.3% 58.7% 1.85
1.3 0.0 0.1 12.7% 18.2% 23.8% 52.8% 52.7% 1.96
1.2 0.0 0.1 16.6% 16.2% 35.6% 65.5% 54.9% 2.52
1.0 0.0 0.1 18.5% 10.8% 35.4% 39.8% 46.8% 2.83
1.1 0.0 0.1 17.0% 6.8% 25.4% 33.6% 42.6% 2.96
1.1 0.0 0.1 19.3% 9.6% 14.5% 34.7% 34.6% 3.26
1.0 0.0 0.1 17.6% 9.6% 5.3% 32.4% 34.0% 3.17
1.0 0.0 0.1 9.5% 4.0% 5.9% 34.6% 40.4% 3.72
42.3% 47.5%
VALUATIONS
5 Yr. Diffential 4 Yr. Diffential 3 Yr. Diffential Sales / Total Total Assets / Mcap / Net
Profit by NW Profit by NW Profit by NW NP / Sales Assets NW ROA NP / NW Profit
20.3% 0.7 1.0 13.8% 13.8%
16.9% 0.9 1.1 16.0% 16.8%
23.4% 0.9 1.1 20.2% 21.2%
38.1% 22.9% 0.9 1.0 20.2% 21.0% 16.1
27.2% 23.0% 16.6% 1.1 1.0 18.3% 18.9% 22.1
23.2% 20.6% 14.7% 17.4% 1.0 1.0 18.1% 18.6% 41.1
41.6% 40.6% 43.5% 21.4% 1.5 1.0 32.0% 32.5% 24.8
33.9% 34.9% 37.2% 20.7% 1.5 1.0 30.3% 30.3% 31.8
45.7% 47.8% 51.4% 27.3% 1.4 1.0 39.3% 39.3% 12.6
42.9% 45.1% 40.6% 29.9% 1.2 1.0 37.1% 37.1% 20.0
68.9% 70.1% 103.2% 32.7% 1.6 1.0 52.1% 52.1% 20.7
70.9% 115.9% 596.6% 29.2% 1.7 1.0 49.2% 51.1% 36.9
61.3% 53.9% 155.3% 26.2% 1.6 1.0 41.1% 42.4% 40.1
49.6% 56.9% 33.0% 26.8% 1.6 1.0 42.6% 44.2% 27.3
26.0% 13.9% 17.0% 21.4% 1.4 1.0 30.4% 31.6% 54.5
17.5% 20.4% 23.4% 20.7% 1.6 1.0 32.4% 33.6% 46.2
18.8% 21.0% -1.3% 19.0% 1.6 1.0 30.6% 31.4% 46.0
18.8% 1.8% 18.0% 18.4% 1.6 1.0 28.6% 29.0% 33.0
14.1% 32.9% 27.1% 20.8% 1.5 1.0 31.4% 32.0% 29.8
24.0% 1.5 36.7% 37.6% 33.7

Mcap / Sales Mcap / NW EV / Sales Cash Yield
3.7 3.4 3.7 3.0%

3.7 4.2 3.7 3.2%
7.2 7.6 7.2 2.2%
5.3 8.1 5.3 3.2%
6.6 9.6 6.6 1.7%
3.4 5.0 3.4 8.0%
6.0 7.4 6.0 3.1%
6.8 10.8 6.8 2.3%
10.8 18.9 10.8 3.1%
10.5 17.0 10.5 1.7%
7.3 12.0 7.3 2.9%
11.7 17.2 11.7 1.7%
9.5 15.5 9.6 1.9%
8.8 14.4 8.8 1.9%
6.1 9.6 6.1 2.6%
6.2 9.5 6.2 3.2%
8.1 12.7
DATA
Revenue from Cost of Total

Operations Materials Purchase of Changes in Materials Employee Advertiding & Other
(Net) (Rs. in Consumed (Rs. Stock in Trade Inventories Consumed Benefits Expense Sales Expense Expense (Rs.
billion) in billion) (Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) in billion)
2007 12.956 5.727 5.727 1.714 4.024
2008 14.739 5.982 5.982 1.248 5.011
2009 16.952 6.809 6.809 1.558 5.752
2010 19.625 7.615 7.615 1.613 6.043
2011 22.861 7.395 1.623 -0.299 8.720 1.932 7.064
2012 26.932 8.939 1.997 -0.433 10.502 2.156 8.489
2013 31.638 9.915 2.364 0.222 12.502 2.494 10.074
2014 35.788 11.294 2.994 -0.268 14.020 2.118 6.887 6.124
2015 39.819 11.857 2.984 -0.164 14.677 2.589 7.143 7.188
2016 39.077 11.268 3.537 -0.043 14.763 2.624 4.476 7.435
2017 39.818 11.560 3.148 0.056 14.763 2.885 5.117 7.604
2018 41.880 11.890 2.844 0.167 14.901 3.059 5.268 7.528
2019 44.624 13.285 2.546 -0.245 15.586 2.959 5.647 8.072
Average
NW ps
2019 53
2020 60
2021 67
2022 75
2023 84
2024 94
2025 105
2026 118
2027 132
2028 148
2029 165
MP @ 2029 3965
PV 991
CMP 1225
Discount -24%
Revenue from Cost of Total
Operations Materials Purchase of Changes in Materials Employee Advertiding & Other
(Net) (Rs. in Consumed (Rs. Stock in Trade Inventories Consumed Benefits Expense Sales Expense Expense (Rs.
billion) in billion) (Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) in billion)
2007 100 44.2 44.2 13.2 31.1
2008 100 40.6 40.6 8.5 34.0
2009 100 40.2 40.2 9.2 33.9
2010 100 38.8 38.8 8.2 30.8
2011 100 32.3 7.1 -1.3 38.1 8.5 30.9
2012 100 33.2 7.4 -1.6 39.0 8.0 31.5
2013 100 31.3 7.5 0.7 39.5 7.9 31.8
2014 100 31.6 8.4 -0.7 39.2 5.9 19.2 17.1
2015 100 29.8 7.5 -0.4 36.9 6.5 17.9 18.1
2016 100 28.8 9.1 -0.1 37.8 6.7 11.5 19.0
2017 100 29.0 7.9 0.1 37.1 7.2 12.9 19.1
Depreciation
and Working
EBITDA (Rs. In Amortisation EBI (Rs. In Finance Costs Net Profit (Rs. NW (Rs. In Long Term Capital (Rs. In
billion) (Rs. In billion) billion) (Rs. In billion) In billion) billion) Loan Fixed Assets billion)
1.491 0.196 1.295 - 1.484 2.784 0.043 1.920 0.906
2.497 0.209 2.288 - 2.358 1.673 0.088 1.990 -0.229
2.833 0.283 2.551 - 2.858 2.153 0.084 1.786 0.451
4.354 0.307 4.047 - 4.341 3.302 0.046 2.531 0.817
5.146 0.342 4.803 0.016 4.026 3.841 0.278 2.673 1.445
5.785 0.393 5.392 0.015 4.465 4.354 0.308 3.238 1.424
6.568 0.437 6.131 - 4.968 4.896 0.357 3.826 1.427
6.640 0.508 6.133 - 5.399 5.999 0.518 6.974 -0.458
8.222 0.750 7.472 - 5.590 7.703 0.650 9.228 -0.875
9.780 1.114 8.666 - 5.812 10.310 0.292 10.865 -0.262
9.449 1.332 8.116 - 5.774 12.738 0.543 12.747 0.534
11.124 1.565 9.559 - 6.734 15.246 0.565 13.045 2.766
12.361 1.592 10.769 0.03 7.756 14.468 1.286 13.896 1.858
60,716
602
5 Yr. Time Fr
EPS Mcap / NW Multiple 18
32 RONW ~60% 75% 25% 18.8% 15.6%
36 Retention Ratio ~ 20% 80% 25% 20.0% 16.8%
40 P/E 35 85% 25% 21.3% 18.0%
45 P/B 20 90% 25% 22.5% 19.2%
50 ROA 55% 95% 25% 23.8% 20.4%
56 100% 25% 25.0% 21.6%
63 102% 25% 25.5% 22.1%
71 57% 104% 25% 26.0% 22.6%
79 Book Value 56
89 1.120 Entry Price 1147
2655
664
1225 10 Yr. Time F
-85% Mcap / NW Multiple 18
75% 25% 18.8% 17.1%
80% 25% 20.0% 18.4%
85% 25% 21.3% 19.6%
90% 25% 22.5% 20.8%
95% 25% 23.8% 22.1%
100% 25% 25.0% 23.3%
102% 25% 25.5% 23.8%
104% 25% 26.0% 24.3%
Book Value 56
Entry Price 1147
Depreciation
and Working
EBITDA (Rs. In Amortisation EBI (Rs. In Finance Costs Net Profit (Rs. NW (Rs. In Long Term Capital (Rs. In
billion) (Rs. In billion) billion) (Rs. In billion) In billion) billion) Loan Fixed Assets billion)
11.5 1.5 10.0 0.0 11.5 98 1.5 68 32
16.9 1.4 15.5 0.0 16.0 95 5.0 113 -13
16.7 1.7 15.0 0.0 16.9 96 3.8 80 20
22.2 1.6 20.6 0.0 22.1 99 1.4 76 24
22.5 1.5 21.0 0.1 17.6 93 6.7 65 35
21.5 1.5 20.0 0.1 16.6 93 6.6 69 31
20.8 1.4 19.4 0.0 15.7 93 6.8 73 27
18.6 1.4 17.1 0.0 15.1 92 0.5 107 -7
20.6 1.9 18.8 0.0 14.0 92 0.6 110 -10
25.0 2.9 22.2 0.0 14.9 97 0.9 102 -2
23.7 3.3 20.4 0.0 14.5 96 0.9 96 4
CASH FLOWS
Enterprise Net Cash Flow

Trade Market Cap Value (Rs. in No. of o/s from
Total Assets Payables (Rs. (Rs. in billion) billion) Shares (In Operations
(Rs. In billion) In billion) (30/6/X) 30/6/XX billion) NW ps EPS Dividend ps (Rs. In billion)
2.827 2.327 50 50 0.1359928 20.5 10.9 9.5 1.577
1.761 3.065 48 48 0.1359928 12.3 17.3 13 2.914
2.237 3.612 82 82 0.1359928 15.8 21.0 15 3.497
3.348 3.678 114 114 0.1359928 24.3 31.9 20 4.040
4.118 3.786 134 134 0.1359928 28.2 29.6 22 3.579
4.662 3.690 163 163 0.1359928 32.0 32.8 25 4.028
5.253 4.666 170 170 0.1359928 36.0 36.5 28 6.149
6.517 4.980 211 211 0.1359928 44.1 39.7 27 4.574
8.353 5.144 272 273 0.1359928 56.6 41.1 24 6.382
10.603 5.519 254 254 0.2719856 37.9 21.4 10 6.729
13.281 5.975 286 286 0.2719856 46.8 21.2 10 6.880
15.811 6.145 318 318 0.2719856 56.1 24.8 24 6.939
15.754 6.132 321 322 0.2719856 53.2 28.5 23
5 Yr. Time Frame

20 22 24 25 26 Probabilities Weighted
of Growth Growth
18.0% 20.3% 22.4% 23.4% 24.4% 20% 3.8%
19.3% 21.6% 23.7% 24.7% 25.7% 20% 4.0%
20.5% 22.8% 25.0% 26.0% 27.0% 18% 3.8%
21.7% 24.1% 26.3% 27.3% 28.3% 15% 3.4%
23.0% 25.4% 27.6% 28.6% 29.6% 12% 2.9%
24.2% 26.6% 28.8% 29.9% 30.9% 8% 2.0%
24.7% 27.1% 29.4% 30.4% 31.5% 5% 1.3%
25.2% 27.6% 29.9% 30.9% 32.0% 2% 0.5%
100% 21.6%
10 Yr. Time Frame

20 22 24 25 26
18.4% 19.5% 20.6% 21.1% 21.5%

19.6% 20.8% 21.8% 22.3% 22.8%
20.9% 22.0% 23.1% 23.6% 24.1%
22.1% 23.3% 24.4% 24.9% 25.4%
23.4% 24.6% 25.6% 26.2% 26.6%
24.6% 25.8% 26.9% 27.4% 27.9%
25.1% 26.3% 27.4% 27.9% 28.4%
25.6% 26.8% 27.9% 28.4% 29.0%
Net Cash Flow

Trade from Free Cash
Total Assets Payables (Rs. Operations Capital Expen. Flow (Rs. In
(Rs. In billion) In billion) (Rs. In billion) (Rs. In billion) billion)
100 82 12.2 3.0 9.2
100 174 19.8 3.1 16.7
100 161 20.6 2.2 18.4
100 110 20.6 1.8 18.8
100 92 15.7 1.8 13.9
100 79 15.0 3.8 11.2
100 89 19.4 4.9 14.5
100 76 12.8 9.0 3.7
100 62 16.0 7.5 8.5
100 52 17.2 7.0 10.2
100 45 17.3 8.1 9.2
CASH FLOWS GROWTH & PROFITABILITY
Free Cash
Capital Expen. Flow (Rs. In Material Employee Advertising EBIDTA EBIDTA
(Rs. In billion) billion) Costs Margin Margin Margin Margin Growth NP Margin NP Growth
0.385 1.192 44.2% 13.2% 11.5% 11.5%
0.452 2.462 40.6% 8.5% 16.9% 67.5% 16.0% 58.9%
0.371 3.125 40.2% 9.2% 16.7% 13.5% 16.9% 21.2%
0.358 3.682 38.8% 8.2% 22.2% 53.7% 22.1% 51.9%
0.411 3.168 32.3% 8.5% 22.5% 18.2% 17.6% -7.3%
1.022 3.006 33.2% 8.0% 21.5% 12.4% 16.6% 10.9%
1.547 4.602 31.3% 7.9% 20.8% 13.5% 15.7% 11.3%
3.236 1.337 31.6% 5.9% 19.2% 18.6% 1.1% 15.1% 8.7%
3.000 3.381 29.8% 6.5% 17.9% 20.6% 23.8% 14.0% 3.5%
2.727 4.002 28.8% 6.7% 11.5% 25.0% 18.9% 14.9% 4.0%
3.213 3.667 29.0% 7.2% 12.9% 23.7% -3.4% 14.5% -0.6%
2.089 4.850 28.4% 7.3% 12.6% 26.6% 17.7% 16.1% 16.6%
29.8% 6.6% 12.7% 27.7% 11.1% 17.4% 15.2%
34.2% 19.6% 15.7%

Franchise
Value (Cost of Moat (Trade
Net Cash Flow Capital @ Franchise Payables /
FCF Margin FCF / NW Growth 15%) Value / Sales Total Income) Accrual Ratio Capex / Depr. Capex / Sales
9.2% 7 0.5 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.0%
16.7% 88.4% 84.8% 14 1.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.1%
18.4% 186.8% 20.0% 17 1.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 2.2%
18.8% 171.0% 15.5% 26 1.3 0.2 1.1 1.2 1.8%
13.9% 95.9% -11.4% 23 1.0 0.2 1.1 1.2 1.8%
11.2% 78.3% 12.6% 25 0.9 0.1 1.1 2.6 3.8%
14.5% 105.7% 52.6% 28 0.9 0.1 0.8 3.5 4.9%
3.7% 27.3% -25.6% 30 0.8 0.1 1.2 6.4 9.0%
8.5% 56.4% 39.5% 30 0.7 0.1 0.9 4.0 7.5%
10.2% 52.0% 5.4% 28 0.7 0.1 0.9 2.4 7.0%
9.2% 35.6% 2.2% 26 0.6 0.2 0.8 2.4 8.1%
11.6% 38.1% 0.9% 30 0.7 0.1 1.0 1.3 5.0%
37 0.8 0.1
Owner
Capex / Net Sales / Fixed Sales / Total Earnings (Rs. 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR
Profit Sales / Depr. Assets Assets In billion) Sales EBIDTA Net Profit Market Cap
66.2 6.7 4.6 1.3
70.4 7.4 8.4 2.1
60.0 9.5 7.6 2.8
64.0 7.8 5.9 4.3
66.7 8.6 5.6 4.0
68.5 8.3 5.8 3.8 15.8% 31.2% 24.6% 26.5%
72.4 8.3 6.0 3.9 16.5% 21.3% 16.1% 28.6%
70.5 5.1 5.5 2.7 16.1% 18.6% 13.6% 20.7%
53.1 4.3 4.8 3.3 15.2% 13.6% 5.2% 19.0%
35.1 3.6 3.7 4.2 11.3% 13.7% 7.6% 13.7%
29.9 3.1 3.0 3.9 8.1% 10.3% 5.3% 11.9%
26.8 3.2 2.6 6.2 5.8% 11.1% 6.3% 13.3%
28.0 3.2 2.8 4.5% 13.2% 7.5% 8.8%
Return on Retention 5 Yr. Diffential 4 Yr. Diffential 3 Yr. Diffential Sales / Total Total
Opening NW Ratio Profit by NW Profit by NW Profit by NW NP / Sales Assets Assets / NW ROA
12.9% 11.5% 4.6 1.0 52.5%
84.7% 25.0% 16.0% 8.4 1.1 133.9%
170.8% 28.6% 16.9% 7.6 1.0 127.8%
201.7% 37.3% 551.3% 22.1% 5.9 1.0 129.7%
121.9% 25.7% 240.6% 77.0% 17.6% 5.6 1.1 97.8%
116.3% 23.9% 189.9% 78.6% 73.0% 16.6% 5.8 1.1 95.8%
114.1% 23.3% 81.0% 76.9% 39.3% 15.7% 6.0 1.1 94.6%
110.3% 32.0% 66.1% 39.2% 63.6% 15.1% 5.5 1.1 82.8%
93.2% 41.6% 28.4% 40.5% 33.6% 14.0% 4.8 1.1 66.9%
75.4% 53.2% 27.6% 22.6% 15.6% 14.9% 3.7 1.0 54.8%
56.0% 52.9% 15.6% 10.3% 5.6% 14.5% 3.0 1.0 43.5%
52.9% 3.1% 17.1% 14.4% 15.2% 16.1% 2.6 1.0 42.6%
50.9% 19.3% 27.8% 32.0% 46.8% 17.4% 2.8 1.1 49.2%
64% 23% 16.2% 5.5 1.1 55.0%

VALUATIONS
Mcap / Net Mcap / Fixed

NP / NW Profit Mcap / Sales Mcap / NW Assets EV / EBI EV / Sales Cash Yield
53.3% 33.9 3.9 18.1 26.2 38.9 3.9 2.4%
140.9% 20.5 3.3 28.9 24.3 21.1 3.3 5.1%
132.8% 28.8 4.9 38.2 46.1 32.3 4.9 3.8%
131.5% 26.2 5.8 34.5 45.0 28.1 5.8 3.2%
104.8% 33.2 5.8 34.8 50.0 27.9 5.9 2.4%
102.5% 36.5 6.0 37.4 50.3 30.2 6.1 1.8%
101.5% 34.2 5.4 34.7 44.4 27.8 5.4 2.7%
90.0% 39.0 5.9 35.1 30.2 34.5 5.9 0.6%
72.6% 48.7 6.8 35.3 29.5 36.5 6.8 1.2%
56.4% 43.7 6.5 24.6 23.4 29.3 6.5 1.6%
45.3% 49.5 7.2 22.4 22.4 35.3 7.2 1.3%
44.2% 47.2 7.6 20.8 24.4 33.3 7.6 1.5%
53.6% 41.4 7.2 22.2 23.1 29.9 7.2
42.5 5.6 27.9 31.1 5.6

Capital (Rs. In Surplus (Rs. In NW (Rs. In Adj. NW (Rs. Net Profit (Rs. Total (Rs. In GNPA (Rs. In NNPA (Rs. In
billion) billion) billion) In billion) In billion) billion) billion) billion)
2009 12.953 48.806 61.758 61.303 7.498 298 0.781 0.455
2010 13.006 57.095 70.101 69.672 10.623 336 0.797 0.429
2011 14.610 89.434 104.043 103.654 12.817 373 0.797 0.389
2012 15.124 107.727 122.850 122.136 15.540 424 1.483 0.714
2013 15.147 121.679 136.827 136.538 18.362 510 0.851 0.289
2014 15.163 135.240 150.403 148.197 18.027 551 3.330 2.206
2015 15.928 156.817 172.745 171.549 17.070 607 3.576 1.196
2016 15.940 144.855 160.795 156.261 767 14.673 4.535
4.5345
Average
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
MP @ 2025
PV
CMP
Discount
1.2953 47.3 5.8 1.2 176 23.5 2.9 4.8
1.3006 53.6 8.2 1.5 233 21.9 3.3 17.2% 4.8
1.4609 70.9 8.8 2 199 15.5 1.9 18.3% 3.6
1.5124 80.8 10.3 2.3 206 13.2 1.7 14.9% 3.5
1.5147 90.1 12.1 2.6 129 7.0 0.9 14.9% 3.7
1.5163 97.7 11.9 2.6 170 9.4 1.1 13.2% 3.7
1.5928 107.7 10.7 2.6 178 10.5 1.0 11.3% 3.5
1.5940 98.0 4.8
15.1 2.0 15.6% 4.0
Adj. NW EPS
98
108 14 RONW ~ 14%
120 15 Retention Ratio ~ 75%
132 17 P/E 12
146 19 P/B 1.7
161 20 ROA 1.3%
178 23
197 25
218 28 14.2%
241 31
266 34
452 405
113 101
60 60
47% 41%
Deposits & GNPA /
2.5% 12.1% 79.3% 236 0.3% 1.3%
3.2% 15.2% 81.6% 266 0.3% 1.1%
3.4% 12.3% 77.2% 269 0.3% 0.8%
3.7% 12.6% 77.6% 301 0.5% 1.2%
3.6% 13.4% 78.6% 373 0.2% 0.6%
3.3% 12.0% 78.1% 400 0.8% 2.2% 19.5% 19.2% 11.9%
2.8% 9.9% 75.7% 435 0.8% 2.1% 19.8% 10.0% 6.3%
606 2.4% 9.1%
3.3% 12.9% 78.7%

Capital (Rs. In Surplus (Rs. In NW (Rs. In Adj. NW (Rs. Net Profit (Rs. Total (Rs. In GNPA (Rs. In NNPA (Rs. In
billion) billion) billion) In billion) In billion) billion) billion) billion)
2004 2.904 5.100 8.00 5.88 2.62 151 2.594 2.123
2005 2.905 5.387 8.29 5.85 0.37 156 3.205 2.443
2006 2.905 5.755 8.66 6.71 2.10 176 2.688 1.950
2007 3.200 7.368 10.57 7.83 0.67 209 3.427 2.738
2008 3.200 10.292 13.49 10.58 0.75 233 3.923 2.910
2009 3.552 13.081 16.63 14.84 1.48 276 2.550 1.791
2010 4.106 19.844 23.95 22.93 3.50 354 2.555 1.018
2011 4.660 35.763 40.42 39.69 5.77 456 2.659 0.728
2012 4.677 42.631 47.31 46.36 8.03 576 3.471 0.947
2013 5.229 70.967 76.20 74.83 10.61 733 4.578 1.368
2014 5.256 81.201 86.46 84.62 14.08 870 6.208 1.841
2015 5.295 101.010 106.30 104.20 17.94 1118 5.629 2.105
2016 5.950 170.872 176.82 173.60 22.86 1401 7.768 3.218
2017 5.982 200.328 206.31 201.92 28.68 1786 10.549 4.389
2018 6.002 232.269 238.27 230.81 36.06 2216 17.049 7.457
2019 6.027 260.721 266.75 244.27 33.01 2778 39.474 22.483
Average
Adj. NW EPS ` Adj. NW EPS

2020 465 2019 405
2021 534 86 2020 465 75 RONW ~ 18.5%
2022 613 99 2021 534 86 Retention Ratio ~ 80%
2023 704 113 2022 613 99 P/E
2024 808 130 2023 704 113 P/B
2025 928 150 2024 808 130 ROA
2026 1065 172 2025 928 150
2027 1223 197 2026 1065 172
2028 1404 226 2027 1223 197
2029 1611 260 2028 1404 226
2030 1850 298 2029 1611 260
MP @ 2030 5549 4829 MP @ 2029 4834 4207
PV 1387 1207 PV 1209 1052
CMP 1540 1540 CMP 1540 1540
Discount -11% -28% Discount -27% -46%
0.29042 20.2 9.0 1.75 15 5.7 2.5 0 18.8
0.29051 20.1 1.3 1.8 19 52.9 3.3 4.6% 18.8
0.29051 23.1 7.2 0 10 4.7 1.5 25.3% 20.3
0.32000 24.5 2.1 0.6 17 25.9 2.2 7.8% 19.8
0.32000 33.1 2.3 0.6 17 23.0 1.6 7.1% 17.2
0.35519 41.8 4.2 1.2 31 20.6 2.1 11.0% 16.6
0.41065 55.8 8.5 1.8 84 24.0 3.7 21.1% 14.8
0.46597 85.2 12.4 2 127 22.0 3.2 24.1% 11.3
0.46770 99.1 17.2 2.2 159 19.8 3.4 19.9% 12.2
0.52287 143.1 20.3 3 223 21.0 3.0 22.4% 9.6
0.52564 161.0 26.8 3.5 252 17.9 3.0 18.5% 10.1
0.52945 196.8 33.9 4 436 24.3 4.2 20.7% 10.5
0.59499 291.8 38.4 4.5 609 26.6 3.5 21.5% 7.9
0.59815 337.6 47.9 6 877 30.6 4.3 16.2% 8.7
0.60022 384.5 60.1 7.5 1160 32.2 5.0 17.5% 9.3
0.60269 405.3 54.8 7.5 904 27.4 3.7 13.9% 10.4
24.2 3.7 19.3% 10.4
RONW ~ 18.5%
16.2
3
1.4%
18.5%
1.15
Deposits & GNPA /
1.7% 32.7% 80.6% 143 1.8% 32.4%
0.2% 4.4% 148 2.2% 38.7%
1.2% 24.3% 168 1.6% 31.0%
0.3% 6.4% 71.4% 199 1.7% 32.4%
0.3% 5.6% 74.4% 219 1.8% 29.1%
0.5% 8.9% 71.3% 260 1.0% 15.3% 20.3% -10.8% -13.2%
1.0% 14.6% 78.9% 330 0.8% 10.7% 31.4% 56.9% 20.0%
1.3% 14.3% 83.9% 416 0.6% 6.6% 42.7% 22.4% 11.6%
1.4% 17.0% 87.2% 529 0.7% 7.3% 42.7% 64.2% 20.0%
1.4% 13.9% 85.2% 657 0.7% 6.0% 47.9% 69.9% 15.7%
1.6% 16.3% 86.9% 784 0.8% 7.2% 41.6% 56.8% 18.0%
1.6% 16.9% 88.2% 1012 0.6% 5.3% 35.4% 38.6% 17.5%
1.6% 12.9% 88.3% 1224 0.6% 4.4% 34.3% 31.7% 12.5%
1.6% 13.9% 87.5% 1580 0.7% 5.1% 34.2% 29.0% 13.0%
1.6% 15.1% 87.5% 1978 0.9% 7.2% 25.3% 27.7% 15.7%
1.2% 12.4% 86.3% 2511 1.6% 14.8% 23.6% 18.6% 10.5%
1.4% 14.7% 85.9% 6.3% 38.4%

2007 0.00 0.00
2008 0.00 0.00
2009 0.00 0.00
2010 0.0 0
2011 0.0 0
2012 0.0 0
2013 0.0 0
2014 0.0 0
2015 0.0 0
2016 0.0 0
2017 0.0 0
2018 0.0 0
2019 0.0 0
2020 0.0 0
Average
Adj. NW EPS ` Adj. NW

2021 2020
2022 0 0 2021 0
2023 0 0 2022 0
2024 0 0 2023 0
2025 0 0 2024 0
2026 0 0 2025 0
2027 0 0 2026 0
2028 0 0 2027 0
2029 0 0 2028 0
2030 0 0 2029 0
2031 0 0 2030 0
MP @ 2031 0 0 MP @ 2030 0
PV 0 0 PV 0
CMP CMP
Discount #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Discount #DIV/0!
Implied Return #DIV/0! Implied Return #DIV/0!
Implied P/B #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #REF! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #REF! #DIV/0!
EPS
Mcap / NW Multiple
0 P/E 20 17% 80%
0 P/B 3.6 18% 80%
0 ROA 1.3% 19% 80%
0 20% 80%
0 18.0% 21% 80%
0 22% 80%
0 23% 80%
0 #DIV/0!
0
0
#DIV/0!
Deposits & GNPA /
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #REF! #REF! #REF!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #REF! #REF!
5 Yr. Time Frame

Mcap / NW Multiple 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 Probabilities Weighted
12.8% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 20% 2.6%
Book Value 100% 14.7%
Entry Price
Ratio of 30d
EMA to 50d
10-Jan-20 1,282.70
13-Jan-20 1,286.00
14-Jan-20 1,289.50
15-Jan-20 1,284.25
16-Jan-20 1,287.65
17-Jan-20 1,278.15
20-Jan-20 1,254.90
21-Jan-20 1,244.35
22-Jan-20 1,240.85
23-Jan-20 1,244.85
24-Jan-20 1,244.55
27-Jan-20 1,213.20
28-Jan-20 1,223.20
29-Jan-20 1,235.85
30-Jan-20 1,226.05
31-Jan-20 1,226.30
1-Feb-20 1,198.70
3-Feb-20 1,192.80
4-Feb-20 1,229.80
5-Feb-20 1,244.65
6-Feb-20 1,239.80
7-Feb-20 1,242.20
10-Feb-20 1,240.30
11-Feb-20 1,240.60
12-Feb-20 1,249.00 1,246
13-Feb-20 1,241.40 1,245
14-Feb-20 1,219.35 1,244
17-Feb-20 1,217.15 1,242
18-Feb-20 1,213.25 1,240
19-Feb-20 1,227.20 1,239
20-Feb-20 1,217.10 1,238
24-Feb-20 1,209.95 1,236
25-Feb-20 1,200.30 1,233
26-Feb-20 1,199.25 1,231
27-Feb-20 1,199.45 1,229
28-Feb-20 1,177.65 1,226
2-Mar-20 1,179.60 1,223
3-Mar-20 1,181.80 1,220
4-Mar-20 1,148.85 1,215
5-Mar-20 1,151.35 1,211
6-Mar-20 1,134.90 1,206
9-Mar-20 1,107.30 1,199
11-Mar-20 1,113.80 1,194
12-Mar-20 1,021.30 1,182
13-Mar-20 1,069.80 1,213 1,175
16-Mar-20 999.50 1,204 1,163
17-Mar-20 975.10 1,195 1,150 0.9626
18-Mar-20 876.90 1,182 1,132 0.9576 (51)
19-Mar-20 895.55 1,171 1,116 0.9535 (41)
20-Mar-20 882.85 1,159 1,101 0.9495 (40)
23-Mar-20 771.55 1,144 1,079 0.9432 (63)
24-Mar-20 767.70 1,129 1,058 0.9374 (58)
25-Mar-20 856.75 1,118 1,045 0.9345 (29)
26-Mar-20 901.10 1,109 1,035 0.9332 (13)
27-Mar-20 904.45 1,101 1,026 0.9322 (10)
30-Mar-20 901.00 1,093 1,018 0.9314 (8)
30-Mar-20 831.65 1,083 1,006 0.9289 (25)
31-Mar-20 861.90 1,074 996 0.9276 (13)
1-Apr-20 829.65 1,064 985 0.9257 (19)
3-Apr-20 813.85 1,054 974 0.9237 (20)
7-Apr-20 896.10 1,048 968 0.9243 6
8-Apr-20 888.90 1,041 963 0.9249 5
9-Apr-20 925.05 1,037 961 0.9266 17
13-Apr-20 909.00 1,032 957 0.9278 13
15-Apr-20 863.30 1,025 951 0.9278 (0)
16-Apr-20 879.75 1,019 946 0.9285 6
17-Apr-20 910.30 1,015 944 0.9301 16
20-Apr-20 944.85 1,012 944 0.9327 26
21-Apr-20 921.65 1,008 942 0.9346 19
22-Apr-20 928.60 1,005 941 0.9367 21
23-Apr-20 954.95 1,003 942 0.9394 28
24-Apr-20 938.05 1,000 942 0.9416 22
27-Apr-20 929.70 998 941 0.9434 18
28-Apr-20 931.40 995 941 0.9453 19
29-Apr-20 977.10 994 943 0.9484 31
30-Apr-20 1,001.80 995 947 0.9521 37
4-May-20 923.00 992 945 0.9532 11
5-May-20 911.45 988 943 0.9540 8
6-May-20 946.40 987 943 0.9559 19
7-May-20 925.00 984 942 0.9570 12
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
13-Mar-20 20-Mar-20 27-Mar-20 3-Apr-20 10-Apr-20 17-Apr-20 24-Apr-20 1-May-20
1-May-20
`
DATA
Materials Employee
Total Income Consumed & Benefit
from Operations Purchase of Expense & Changes in Impairment loss
(Net) (Rs. in Goods (Rs. in Other Expenses Inventories (Rs. EBITDA (Rs. In Depriciation (Rs. In on fixed assets
billion) billion) (Rs. in billion) in billion) billion) billion) (Rs. In billion)
2003 21.5452 9.4969 7.5225 0.0788 4.4470 0.4627 0.0222
2004 22.2757 10.4079 7.4385 (0.0804) 4.5098 0.4914 0.0233
2005 24.7690 11.2806 8.3900 (0.1221) 5.2205 0.5684 (0.0264)
2006 28.1606 13.3666 9.5439 (0.1651) 5.4152 0.6628 0.0039
2007 35.0435 17.5227 11.2312 (0.6731) 6.9628 0.7474 0.0118
2008 44.7106 21.3867 13.5638 (0.3454) 10.1056 0.9236 0.0031
2009 43.2425 24.5703 16.4652 (0.0865) 2.2935 1.1127 0.1032
2010 62.5474 31.3851 19.4952 (0.8294) 12.4965 1.2775 -
2011 74.9082 36.3766 23.4869 (0.4829) 15.5276 1.5333 0.1039
2012 83.0226 38.6840 27.0012 (0.9202) 18.2576 2.7715 0.0685
2013 91.0105 40.1703 29.5913 1.0532 20.1957 3.2995 0.0994
2014 98.5484 45.9139 31.5625 (0.6743) 21.7463 3.3754 0.0811
2015 81.7531 34.5694 29.6386 0.1197 17.4254 3.4726 0.2822
2016 92.2380 38.9047 33.6499 (0.1078) 19.7912 3.5362 0.1183
Average
Goemetric Mean
NW ps EPS NW ps EPS
2017 355 2016 313
2018 403 160 2017 355 141 RONW ~ 50%
2019 457 181 2018 403 160 Retention Ratio ~ 30%
2020 519 206 2019 457 181 P/E
2021 589 233 2020 519 206 P/B
2022 668 265 2021 589 233 ROA
2023 758 301 2022 668 265
2024 861 341 2023 758 301
2025 977 387 2024 861 341
2026 1109 440 2024 977 387
2027 1259 499 2025 1109 440
MP @ 2027 26432 17466 MP @ 2024 23288 15388
PV 6608 4366 PV 5822 3847
CMP 6400 5890 CMP 6400 5890
Discount 3% -35% Discount -10% -53%
Materials Employee
Total Income Consumed & Benefit
from Operations Purchase of Expense & Changes in Impairment loss
(Net) (Rs. in Goods (Rs. in Other Expenses Inventories (Rs. EBITDA (Rs. In Depriciation (Rs. In on fixed assets
billion) billion) (Rs. in billion) in billion) billion) billion) (Rs. In billion)
2003 100% 44.1% 34.9% 0.4% 20.6% 2.1% 0.1%
2004 100% 46.7% 33.4% -0.4% 20.2% 2.2% 0.1%
2005 100% 45.5% 33.9% -0.5% 21.1% 2.3% -0.1%
2006 100% 47.5% 33.9% -0.6% 19.2% 2.4% 0.0%
2007 100% 50.0% 32.0% -1.9% 19.9% 2.1% 0.0%
2008 100% 47.8% 30.3% -0.8% 22.6% 2.1% 0.0%
2009 100% 56.8% 38.1% -0.2% 5.3% 2.6% 0.2%
2010 100% 50.2% 31.2% -1.3% 20.0% 2.0% 0.0%
2011 100% 48.6% 31.4% -0.6% 20.7% 2.0% 0.1%
2012 100% 46.6% 32.5% -1.1% 22.0% 3.3% 0.1%
2013 100% 44.1% 32.5% 1.2% 22.2% 3.6% 0.1%
2014 100% 46.6% 32.0% -0.7% 22.1% 3.4% 0.1%
2015 100% 42.3% 36.3% 0.1% 21.3% 4.2% 0.3%
2016 100% 42.2% 36.5% -0.1% 21.5% 3.8% 0.1%
Additional Provision for Working
Employee cost EBI (Rs. In Interest (Rs. contingency Net Profit (Rs. NW (Rs. In Long Term Fixed Assets / Capital (Rs. In
(Rs. In billion) billion) In billion) (Rs. In billion) In billion) billion) Loan Non Current billion)
- 3.9621 0.0192 0.2296 2.6308 3.3500 0.1562 4.0530 (0.5469)
- 3.9952 0.0078 0.2669 2.5192 3.1941 0.0791 4.3130 (1.0399)
- 4.6785 0.0021 0.2232 3.0957 3.5413 0.1430 4.9660 (1.2816)
- 4.7485 0.0044 0.1450 3.1510 3.8889 0.3542 5.8004 (1.5573)
0.7537 5.4499 0.0085 (0.5904) 4.1381 4.1842 0.3157 6.7551 (2.2551)
- 9.1789 0.0164 0.3049 5.3408 4.7335 0.3688 8.6216 (3.5193)
- 1.0777 0.0140 0.3232 6.5500 5.8127 0.3200 9.7583 (3.6257)
- 11.2190 0.0107 0.1837 8.1866 8.5541 0.3327 13.6165 (4.7296)
- 13.8905 0.0511 0.4690 9.6155 12.7395 16.6031 29.4753 (0.1327)
- 15.4176 0.2660 0.2584 10.6793 17.9841 22.3708 35.4835 4.8714
- 16.7968 0.3651 0.6205 11.1713 23.6875 25.9834 40.1255 9.5454
0.6483 17.6415 0.1423 0.3643 11.8469 28.3721 16.2684 38.5583 6.0822
0.7532 12.9174 0.0329 0.3331 5.6327 28.1784 17.8689 36.0085 10.0388
0.8740 15.2627 0.0351 1.6847 9.2654 30.1370 21.5957 35.2698 16.4629
5 Yr. Time Frame

Mcap / NW Multiple 18 22 24 26
40% 25% 10.0% 7.5% 11.9% 13.9% 15.7%
50% 25% 12.5% 10.0% 14.5% 16.5% 18.4%
etention Ratio ~ 30% 60% 25% 15.0% 12.4% 17.0% 19.1% 21.0%
35 70% 25% 17.5% 14.9% 19.6% 21.7% 23.6%
21 80% 25% 20.0% 17.3% 22.1% 24.3% 26.3%
83% 85% 25% 21.3% 18.5% 23.4% 25.6% 27.6%
90% 25% 22.5% 19.8% 24.7% 26.9% 28.9%
95% 25% 23.8% 21.0% 25.9% 28.1% 30.2%
60% Book Value 292
Entry Price 5890
1.14
10 Yr. Time Frame

Mcap / NW Multiple 18 22 24 26
40% 25% 10.0% 8.8% 11.0% 11.9% 12.8%
50% 25% 12.5% 11.2% 13.5% 14.5% 15.4%
60% 25% 15.0% 13.7% 16.0% 17.0% 18.0%
70% 25% 17.5% 16.2% 18.5% 19.6% 20.5%
80% 25% 20.0% 18.7% 21.1% 22.1% 23.1%
85% 25% 21.3% 19.9% 22.3% 23.4% 24.4%
90% 25% 22.5% 21.1% 23.6% 24.7% 25.7%
95% 25% 23.8% 22.4% 24.8% 25.9% 26.9%
Book Value 292
Entry Price 5890
Additional Provision for Working

Employee cost EBI (Rs. In Interest (Rs. contingency Net Profit (Rs. NW (Rs. In Long Term Fixed Assets / Capital (Rs. In
(Rs. In billion) billion) In billion) (Rs. In billion) In billion) billion) Loan Non Current billion)
- 18.4% 0.1% 1.1% 12.2% 96% 4% 116% -16%
- 17.9% 0.0% 1.2% 11.3% 98% 2% 132% -32%
- 18.9% 0.0% 0.9% 12.5% 96% 4% 135% -35%
- 16.9% 0.0% 0.5% 11.2% 92% 8% 137% -37%
2.2% 15.6% 0.0% -1.7% 11.8% 93% 7% 150% -50%
- 20.5% 0.0% 0.7% 11.9% 93% 7% 169% -69%
- 2.5% 0.0% 0.7% 15.1% 95% 5% 159% -59%
- 17.9% 0.0% 0.3% 13.1% 96% 4% 153% -53%
- 18.5% 0.1% 0.6% 12.8% 43% 57% 100% 0%
- 18.6% 0.3% 0.3% 12.9% 45% 55% 88% 12%
- 18.5% 0.4% 0.7% 12.3% 48% 52% 81% 19%
0.7% 17.9% 0.1% 0.4% 12.0% 64% 36% 86% 14%
0.9% 15.8% 0.0% 0.4% 6.9% 61% 39% 78% 22%
0.9% 16.5% 0.0% 1.8% 10.0% 58% 42% 68% 32%
Market Cap Enterprise
Current Current Cash Trade (Rs. in Value (Rs. in No. of o/s
Total Assets Liabilities (Rs. In Investments (Rs. Holdings (Rs. Inventories Receivables billion) billion) Shares (In
(Rs. In billion) billion) In billion) In billion) (Rs. In billion) (Rs. In billion) 1/4/X+1 1/4/X+1 billion)
3.5062 2.3897 0.7364 0.0629 2.1942 0.3170 62 62 0.0964
3.2731 2.6936 1.5486 0.0945 2.1667 0.2617 62 62 0.0964
3.6844 3.1983 1.0443 0.3665 2.5310 0.3052 117 117 0.0964
4.2431 3.7056 0.7777 0.7636 2.7622 0.5576 91 91 0.0964
4.4999 4.5997 0.9440 0.3776 4.0122 0.5349 143 144 0.0964
5.1023 5.0747 0.3490 1.9369 4.3491 0.4559 154 154 0.0964
6.1326 5.8759 2.0326 1.5559 4.9874 0.6419 261 262 0.0964
8.8869 7.6167 1.5068 2.5529 5.7595 0.6329 353 354 0.0964
29.3426 10.0963 1.3437 2.2721 7.3404 1.1542 452 469 0.0964
40.3549 10.9743 3.6486 2.3696 7.4558 0.8757 503 525 0.0964
49.6709 13.4718 6.2696 7.4936 7.3593 0.8427 487 513 0.0964
44.6405 13.5545 5.0736 4.4582 8.4410 0.9910 578 595 0.0964
46.0473 14.7573 9.8314 4.9955 8.2081 0.7842 578 596 0.0964
51.7327 16.3270 12.7504 8.8000 9.4318 0.9793 617 639 0.0964
28 30 Probabilities Weighted
of Growth Growth
17.5% 19.1% 20% 2.0%
20.1% 21.8% 20% 2.5%
22.8% 24.5% 18% 2.7%
25.5% 27.2% 15% 2.6%
28.2% 29.9% 12% 2.4%
29.5% 31.3% 8% 1.7%
30.8% 32.6% 5% 1.1%
32.2% 34.0% 2% 0.5%
100% 15.5%
28 30
13.7% 14.5%
16.3% 17.1%
18.8% 19.7%
21.4% 22.3%
24.0% 24.9%
25.3% 26.2%
26.6% 27.5%
27.9% 28.8%
Current Current
Investments + Trade Liabilities (%
Total Assets Cash (% of Total Inventories (% Receivables of Materials
(Rs. In billion) Assets) of Sales) (% of Sales) Consumed)
100% 23% 10.2% 1.5% 25%
100% 50% 9.7% 1.2% 26%
100% 38% 10.2% 1.2% 28%
100% 36% 9.8% 2.0% 28%
100% 29% 11.4% 1.5% 26%
100% 45% 9.7% 1.0% 24%
100% 59% 11.5% 1.5% 24%
100% 46% 9.2% 1.0% 24%
100% 12% 9.8% 1.5% 28%
100% 15% 9.0% 1.1% 28%
100% 28% 8.1% 0.9% 34%
100% 21% 8.6% 1.0% 30%
100% 32% 10.0% 1.0% 43%
100% 42% 10.2% 1.1% 42%
Manufact. &
Net Cash Flow Free Cash Other
from Operations Capital Expen. Flow(Rs. In Material Expenses EBIDTA
NW ps EPS Dividend ps (Rs. In billion) (Rs. In billion) billion) Costs Margin Margin Margin
34.7 27.3 20 3.5878 0.6728 2.9150 44.1% 34.9% 20.6%
33.1 26.1 24.5 3.6518 0.7848 2.8670 46.7% 33.4% 20.2%
36.7 32.1 25 4.0306 1.3005 2.7301 45.5% 33.9% 21.1%
40.3 32.7 25.5 4.1855 1.4259 2.7595 47.5% 33.9% 19.2%
43.4 42.9 33 5.1919 1.6964 3.4955 50.0% 32.0% 19.9%
49.1 55.4 42.5 7.2190 2.5499 4.6691 47.8% 30.3% 22.6%
60.3 67.9 48.5 9.2791 2.5646 6.7145 56.8% 38.1% 5.3%
88.7 84.9 48.5 10.3682 4.4751 5.8931 50.2% 31.2% 20.0%
132.1 99.7 48.5 11.5817 15.5709 (3.9892) 48.6% 31.4% 20.7%
186.5 110.8 48.5 16.9338 9.7676 7.1662 46.6% 32.5% 22.0%
245.7 115.9 48.5 17.9640 3.4489 14.5151 44.1% 32.5% 22.2%
294.3 122.9 63 16.4402 1.8944 14.5458 46.6% 32.0% 22.1%
292.3 58.4 48.5 42.3% 36.3% 21.3%
312.6 96.1 63 42.2% 36.5% 21.5%
18.7%
WTH & PROFITABILITY
Franchise Moat
EBIDTA Net Cash Flow Capital @ Franchise Liabilities /
Growth NP Margin NP Growth FCF Margin FCF / NW Growth 15%) Value / Sales Total Income)
0.0% 12.2% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 14.19 65.9% 11.1%
1.4% 11.3% -4.2% 12.9% 85.6% 1.8% 13.60 61.1% 12.1%
15.8% 12.5% 22.9% 11.0% 85.5% 10.4% 17.10 69.0% 12.9%
3.7% 11.2% 1.8% 9.8% 77.9% 3.8% 17.12 60.8% 13.2%
28.6% 11.8% 31.3% 10.0% 89.9% 24.0% 23.40 66.8% 13.1%
45.1% 11.9% 29.1% 10.4% 111.6% 39.0% 30.87 69.0% 11.4%
-77.3% 15.1% 22.6% 15.5% 141.9% 28.5% 37.85 87.5% 13.6%
444.9% 13.1% 25.0% 9.4% 101.4% 11.7% 46.02 73.6% 12.2%
24.3% 12.8% 17.5% -5.3% -46.6% 11.7% 51.36 68.6% 13.5%
17.6% 12.9% 11.1% 8.6% 56.3% 46.2% 53.21 64.1% 13.2%
10.6% 12.3% 4.6% 15.9% 80.7% 6.1% 50.79 55.8% 14.8%
7.7% 12.0% 6.0% 14.8% 61.4% -8.5% 50.61 51.4% 13.8%
-19.9% 6.9% -52.5% 9.37 11.5% 18.1%
13.6% 10.0% 64.5% 31.63 34.3% 17.7%
11.7%
Owner
Capex / Net Sales / Fixed Sales / Total Earnings (Rs. 5 Yr CAGR
Accrual Ratio Capex / Depr. Capex / Sales Profit Sales / Depr. Assets Assets In billion) Sales
0.7 1.5 3% 0.3 46.6 5.3 6.1 2.42
0.7 1.6 4% 0.3 45.3 5.2 6.8 2.23
0.8 2.3 5% 0.4 43.6 5.0 6.7 2.36
0.8 2.2 5% 0.5 42.5 4.9 6.6 2.39
0.8 2.3 5% 0.4 46.9 5.2 7.8 3.19
0.7 2.8 6% 0.5 48.4 5.2 8.8 3.71 15.7%
0.7 2.3 6% 0.4 38.9 4.4 7.1 5.10 14.2%
0.8 3.5 7% 0.5 49.0 4.6 7.0 4.99 20.4%
0.8 10.2 21% 1.6 48.9 2.5 2.6 -4.42 21.6%
0.6 3.5 12% 0.9 30.0 2.3 2.1 3.68 18.8%
0.6 1.0 4% 0.3 27.6 2.3 1.8 11.02 15.3%
0.7 0.6 2% 0.2 29.2 2.6 2.2 13.33 17.9%
23.5 2.3 1.8 5.5%
26.1 2.6 1.8 4.3%
PROFITABILITY OF RETAINED EARNINGS Effiency Ratios
Inventory Debt
Storage Collection
5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR Return on 5 Yr. Diffential 4 Yr. Diffential 3 Yr. Diffential Period Period
EBIDTA Net Profit Market Cap Opening NW Retention Ratio Profit by NW Profit by NW Profit by NW (days) (days)
26.7% 37 5
75.2% 6.2% 36 4
96.9% 22.1% 37 4
89.0% 22.0% 96.5% 36 7
106.4% 23.1% 180.7% 163.5% 42 6
17.8% 15.2% 19.8% 127.6% 23.3% 195.9% 183.3% 188.3% 36 4
-12.6% 21.1% 33.5% 138.4% 28.6% 153.9% 152.1% 176.7% 42 5
19.1% 21.5% 24.8% 140.8% 42.9% 101.6% 107.9% 92.6% 34 4
23.5% 25.0% 37.9% 112.4% 51.4% 73.0% 64.0% 53.4% 36 6
21.3% 20.9% 28.5% 83.8% 56.2% 47.4% 40.3% 33.9% 33 4
14.9% 15.9% 26.0% 62.1% 58.1% 30.8% 25.9% 19.7% 30 3
56.8% 12.6% 17.2% 50.0% 48.7% 23.5% 18.5% 14.3% 31 4
6.9% -7.2% 10.4% 19.9% 17.0% -13.0% -25.8% -49.5% 37 4
5.0% 32.9% 34.4% -2.0% -11.6% -29.6% 37 4
44.3% 39.2%
Effiency Ratios DU PONT ANALYSIS FLOAT ANALYSIS
Credit
Payment Financial Operating Total Funds
Period Sales / Total Total Assets / Assets (Rs. In Assets (Rs. In Employed (Rs.
(days) NP / Sales Assets NW ROA NP / NW billion) billion) In billion)
92 12.2% 6.1 1.0 75.0% 78.5% 0.8 5.1 5.9
94 11.3% 6.8 1.0 77.0% 78.9% 1.6 4.3 6.0
103 12.5% 6.7 1.0 84.0% 87.4% 1.4 5.5 6.9
101 11.2% 6.6 1.1 74.3% 81.0% 1.5 6.4 7.9
96 11.8% 7.8 1.1 92.0% 98.9% 1.3 7.8 9.1
87 11.9% 8.8 1.1 104.7% 112.8% 2.3 7.9 10.2
87 15.1% 7.1 1.1 106.8% 112.7% 3.6 8.4 12.0
89 13.1% 7.0 1.0 92.1% 95.7% 4.1 12.4 16.5
101 12.8% 2.6 2.3 32.8% 75.5% 3.6 35.8 39.4
104 12.9% 2.1 2.2 26.5% 59.4% 6.0 45.3 51.3
122 12.3% 1.8 2.1 22.5% 47.2% 13.8 49.4 63.1
108 12.0% 2.2 1.6 26.5% 41.8% 9.5 48.7 58.2
156 6.9% 1.8 1.6 12.2% 20.0% 14.8 46.0 60.8
153 10.0% 1.8 1.7 17.9% 30.7% 21.6 46.5 68.1
{ Float as percentage of Total F

{ FA+OA }
12.4% 5.5 20.3%

VALUATIONS
Operating CF
less
(NW+Float) / Depriciation /
Float (Rs. In Float / Total Funds NP / (NW+LT Operating Mcap / Net
billion) (FA+OA) Float / OA Employed Debt) Assets Profit Mcap / Sales Mcap / NW
2.4 40.5% 46.9% 97.4% 75.0% 61.3% 23.6 2.9 18.6
2.7 45.1% 62.3% 98.7% 77.0% 73.1% 24.5 2.8 19.3
3.2 46.5% 58.4% 97.9% 84.0% 63.3% 37.7 4.7 32.9
3.7 46.6% 57.8% 95.5% 74.3% 55.0% 28.8 3.2 23.3
4.6 50.5% 59.1% 96.5% 92.0% 57.1% 34.7 4.1 34.3
5.1 49.9% 64.3% 96.4% 104.7% 79.8% 28.7 3.4 32.4
5.9 48.9% 69.8% 97.3% 106.8% 97.0% 39.9 6.0 45.0
7.6 46.2% 61.2% 98.0% 92.1% 73.1% 43.2 5.6 41.3
10.1 25.6% 28.2% 57.9% 32.8% 28.1% 47.0 6.0 35.5
11.0 21.4% 24.2% 56.4% 26.5% 31.3% 47.1 6.1 28.0
13.5 21.3% 27.3% 58.8% 22.5% 29.7% 43.6 5.3 20.6
13.6 23.3% 27.9% 72.0% 26.5% 26.8% 48.8 5.9 20.4
14.8 24.3% 32.1% 70.6% 12.2% 102.7 7.1 20.5
16.3 24.0% 35.1% 68.3% 17.9% 66.6 6.7 20.5
{ Float as percentage of Total Funds Employed }

{ Float
{ Non
funding
Interest
of OA
bearing
} Funds Employed }
37.3 4.7 28.6

VALUATIONS
Mcap / Fixed
Assets EV / EBI EV / Sales Cash Yield
15.3 15.7 2.9 4.7%
14.3 15.5 2.8 4.6%
23.5 25.0 4.7 2.3%
15.6 19.2 3.2 3.0%
21.2 26.4 4.1 2.4%
17.8 16.8 3.4 3.0%
26.8 242.9 6.1 2.6%
25.9 31.5 5.7 1.7%
15.3 33.8 6.3 -0.9%
14.2 34.1 6.3 1.4%
12.1 30.5 5.6 3.0%
15.0 33.7 6.0 2.5%
16.1 46.2 7.3
17.5 41.8 6.9
18.1
DATA
Change in
Inventories of
Revenues Finished Employee
from Cost of Purchase of Goods, WIP & Benefits Other
Operations Materials (Rs. St. in Trade Traded Foods Expense (Rs. Expenses (Rs. EBITDA (Rs. In Net Profit (Rs.
(Rs. in billion) in billion) (Rs. in billion) (Rs. in billion) in billion) in billion) billion) In billion)
2001 4.493 2.484 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.952 0.057 0.480
2002 4.939 2.538 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.277 0.123 0.521
2003 5.743 2.944 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.729 1.070 0.593
2004 6.538 3.446 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.011 1.081 0.614
2005 7.723 4.276 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.222 1.225 0.724
2006 9.170 5.033 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.748 1.388 0.861
2007 12.482 7.110 0.000 0.000 0.000 3.776 1.595 1.113
2008 17.082 9.487 0.000 0.000 0.000 5.374 2.221 1.713
2009 19.863 11.663 0.000 0.000 0.000 6.624 1.576 1.108
2010 21.916 11.391 0.000 0.000 0.000 7.084 3.441 2.703
2011 26.572 13.086 1.592 -0.631 2.870 4.968 4.687 3.100
2012 31.266 16.017 1.733 -0.346 3.262 5.764 4.836 3.244
2013 36.781 18.440 2.159 -0.518 3.746 6.964 5.990 4.240
2014 42.832 21.903 2.296 -0.586 4.420 8.084 6.715 4.498
2015 48.441 24.738 2.198 -0.122 4.973 8.947 7.708 5.126
2016 52.000
Average
Goemetric Mean
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) = Growth/Retention Ratio #DIV/0!
10 Yr. Agg. Cap. Exp. / Net Profit 76%
NW ps EPS
2016 51 2015
2017 60 13 2016
2018 70 15 2017
2019 81 17 2018
2020 94 20 2019
2021 109 24 2020
2022 127 27 2021
2023 148 32 2022
2024 172 37 2023
2025 200 43 2024
2026 232 50 2025
MP @ 2025 1160 998 MP @ 2025
PV 290 250 PV
CMP 580 580 CMP
Discount -100% -132% Discount
CASH FLOWS
Net Cash Flow

Market Cap No. of o/s from
NW (Rs. In Total Assets (Rs. in billion) Shares (In Operations Capital Expen.
billion) (Rs. In billion) (30/6/X) billion) NW ps EPS Dividend ps (Rs. In billion) (Rs. In billion)
2.167 2.618 4 0.50479 4.3 1.0 0.225 - -
2.611 3.053 5 0.50479 5.2 1.0 0.35 0.658 0.529
2.767 3.476 7 0.50479 5.5 1.2 0.375 0.572 0.391
3.149 4.012 7 0.50479 6.2 1.2 0.4 0.490 0.422
3.615 4.535 13 0.50479 7.2 1.4 0.5 0.913 0.690
4.133 5.016 23 0.50479 8.2 1.7 0.625 1.086 0.755
4.806 6.606 31 0.50479 9.5 2.2 0.75 0.771 1.179
6.169 11.890 33 0.50612 12.2 3.4 0.875 1.102 2.884
6.941 13.470 29 0.50612 13.7 2.2 0.875 2.370 2.025
8.719 13.824 66 0.50613 17.2 5.3 1.5 3.690 0.865
10.847 13.971 84 0.50613 21.4 6.1 1.75 2.993 1.275
13.261 14.791 84 0.50765 26.1 6.4 1.9 5.081 1.564
16.515 17.175 135 0.51264 32.2 8.3 2.6 5.175 1.558
19.526 20.383 166 0.51264 38.1 8.8 2.7 3.938 1.895
22.706 23.527 285 0.51266 44.3 10.0 2.9 5.520 4.099
22.706 23.527 277 0.51266
1
1
NW ps EPS
NW ps EPS 2017 60
44 2018 70 15
51 11 RONW ~ 25% 2019 81 17
60 13 Retention Ratio ~ 65% 2020 94 20
70 15 P/E 20 2021 109 24
81 17 P/B 5 2022 127 27
94 20 ROA 17% 2023 148 32
109 24 2024 172 37
127 27 2025 200 43
148 32 25% 2026 232 50
172 37 2027 270 58
200 43 MP @ 2025 1349 1160
998 859 PV 337 290
250 215 CMP 718 580
580 580 Discount -113% -100%
-132% -170% 16.25%
Franchise
Free Cash Value (Cost of
Flow(Rs. in EBIDTA EBIDTA Net Cash Flow Capital @ Franchise
billion) Margin Growth NP Margin NP Growth FCF Margin Growth 15%) Value / Sales
- 1.3% - 10.7% - - - 1.0 22.9%
0.128 2.5% 115.6% 10.6% 8.7% 2.6% - 0.9 17.5%
0.181 18.6% 769.3% 10.3% 13.8% 3.1% -13.0% 1.2 20.7%
0.068 16.5% 1.1% 9.4% 3.6% 1.0% -14.4% 0.9 14.5%
0.223 15.9% 13.3% 9.4% 17.9% 2.9% 86.4% 1.2 15.7%
0.332 15.1% 13.4% 9.4% 18.9% 3.6% 19.0% 1.6 17.5%
-0.408 12.8% 14.9% 8.9% 29.4% -3.3% -29.0% 2.6 21.0%
-1.782 13.0% 39.3% 10.0% 53.8% -10.4% 43.0% 5.2 30.7%
0.345 7.9% -29.0% 5.6% -35.3% 1.7% 115.0% 0.4 2.3%
2.825 15.7% 118.3% 12.3% 143.8% 12.9% 55.7% 9.3 42.4%
1.718 17.6% 36.2% 11.7% 14.7% 6.5% -18.9% 9.8 37.0%
3.517 15.5% 3.2% 10.4% 4.6% 11.2% 69.7% 8.4 26.7%
3.617 16.3% 23.8% 11.5% 30.7% 9.8% 1.9% 11.7 31.9%
2.043 15.7% 12.1% 10.5% 6.1% 4.8% -23.9% 10.5 24.4%
1.421 15.9% 14.8% 10.6% 14.0% 2.9% 40.2% 11.5 23.7%
5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR Return on Retention 5 Yr. Diffential 4 Yr. Diffential
Accrual Ratio Sales EBIDTA Net Profit Market Cap Opening NW Ratio Profit by NW Profit by NW
76.3%
0.8 24.1% 66.1%
1.0 22.7% 68.1%
1.3 22.2% 67.1%
0.8 23.0% 65.1% 16.9%
0.8 15.3% 89.3% 12.4% 42.0% 23.8% 63.3% 19.4% 22.3%
1.4 20.4% 66.9% 16.4% 42.7% 26.9% 66.0% 27.0% 25.5%
1.6 24.4% 15.7% 23.6% 37.2% 35.6% 74.1% 32.9% 36.4%
0.5 24.9% 7.8% 12.5% 33.0% 18.0% 60.0% 13.0% 11.5%
0.7 23.2% 23.0% 30.1% 38.7% 38.9% 71.9% 38.8% 40.2%
1.0 23.7% 27.5% 29.2% 29.9% 35.6% 71.4% 33.4% 32.9%
0.6 20.2% 24.8% 23.8% 22.3% 29.9% 70.3% 25.2% 21.6%
0.8 16.6% 21.9% 19.9% 32.6% 32.0% 68.6% 24.4% 32.7%
1.1 16.6% 33.6% 32.3% 41.7% 27.2% 69.2% 26.9% 16.6%
0.9 17.2% 17.5% 13.7% 33.8% 26.3% 71.0% 17.3% 17.1%
27.0% 67.9%
DU PONT ANALYSIS VALUATIONS
3 Yr. Diffential Sales / Total Total Assets / Mcap / Net

Profit by NW NP / Sales Assets NW ROA NP / NW Profit Mcap / Sales Mcap / NW
10.7% 1.7 1.2 18.3% 22.1% 8.2 0.9 1.8
10.6% 1.6 1.2 17.1% 20.0% 10.0 1.1 2.0
10.3% 1.7 1.3 17.1% 21.4% 11.4 1.2 2.4
13.7% 9.4% 1.6 1.3 15.3% 19.5% 11.4 1.1 2.2
20.2% 9.4% 1.7 1.3 16.0% 20.0% 17.8 1.7 3.6
19.6% 9.4% 1.8 1.2 17.2% 20.8% 26.2 2.5 5.5
30.1% 8.9% 1.9 1.4 16.9% 23.2% 27.7 2.5 6.4
38.7% 10.0% 1.4 1.9 14.4% 27.8% 19.2 1.9 5.3
8.8% 5.6% 1.5 1.9 8.2% 16.0% 26.3 1.5 4.2
40.6% 12.3% 1.6 1.6 19.6% 31.0% 24.5 3.0 7.6
29.7% 11.7% 1.9 1.3 22.2% 28.6% 26.9 3.1 7.7
33.8% 10.4% 2.1 1.1 21.9% 24.5% 26.0 2.7 6.4
19.7% 11.5% 2.1 1.0 24.7% 25.7% 31.8 3.7 8.2
16.1% 10.5% 2.1 1.0 22.1% 23.0% 37.0 3.9 8.5
19.9% 10.6% 2.1 1.0 21.8% 22.6% 55.5 5.9 12.5
5.3
17.6% 24.0 2.4 5.6

EV / Sales Cash Yield
1.0
1.1 2.5%
1.3 2.7%
1.2 1.0%
1.8 1.7%
2.6 1.5%
2.6 -1.3%
2.3 -5.4%
1.8 1.2%
3.3 4.3%
3.3 2.1%
2.7 4.2%
3.7 2.7%
3.9 1.2%
5.9 0.5%
5.3
2.6
DATA
Revenue Cost of Raw

from and Packing Purchase of Employee
Operations Material Stock in Changes in Benefit Advertising & Other
(Net) (Rs. in Consumed Trade (Rs. in Inventories Expense (Rs. Publicity (Rs. Royalty (Rs. in Expenses (Rs.
billion) (Rs. in billion) billion) (Rs. in billion) in billion) in billion) billion) in billion)
2006 5.6673 1.7209 0.0880 0.1308 0.2877 2.1423
2007 5.4038 1.4455 0.0611 (0.0180) 0.2924 2.2217
2008 6.4502 1.8660 0.0038 (0.1318) 0.3973 2.5390
2009 7.7421 2.3589 0.0067 (0.0410) 0.3464 2.9840
2010 9.0446 2.3827 0.4084 0.0047 0.4346 3.5139
2011 10.0287 2.9970 0.9053 (0.0066) 0.5057 3.9921
2012 12.9741 3.9589 1.4506 (0.1667) 0.6466 5.0825
2013 16.8678 4.9410 2.4379 (0.3339) 0.9965 6.3207
2014 20.5094 5.2450 2.8341 0.0488 0.9496 7.2250
2015 23.3379 5.7886 3.4330 (0.0124) 1.1329 3.3273 1.1144 3.7099
2016 22.7539 5.6198 3.3350 (0.1071) 1.1735 - - 6.6744
2017 23.2040 6.1252 3.5356 (0.5111) 1.1410 - - 6.2670
Average
Goemetric Mean 508.85476

162.07889
NW ps EPS NW ps EPS Return on Opening NW

2017 162 56.6 2016 509
2018 196 57 2017 616 178 RONW ~ 30%
2019 237 69 2018 745 215 Retention Ratio ~ 60%
2020 287 83 2019 901 261 P/E 35
2021 347 100 2020 1091 316 P/B 10
2022 420 122 2021 1320 382 ROA 25%
2023 509 147 2022 1597 462
2024 615 178 2023 1932 559
2025 745 215 2024 2338 676 29%
2026 901 261 2025 2829 818
2027 1090 315 2026 3423 990 1.21
MP @ 2027 10904 11039 MP @ 2027 34233 34658
PV 2726 2760 PV 8558 8664
CMP 9175 9175 CMP 9175 9175
Discount -237% -232% Discount -7.2% -5.9% Return on Opening NW
Revenue Cost of Raw
from and Packing Purchase of Employee
Operations Material Stock in Changes in Benefit Advertising & Other
(Net) (Rs. in Consumed Trade (Rs. in Inventories Expense (Rs. Publicity (Rs. Royalty (Rs. in Expenses (Rs.
billion) (Rs. in billion) billion) (Rs. in billion) in billion) in billion) billion) in billion)
2006 100 30 1.6 2.3 5.1 37.8
2007 100 27 1.1 -0.3 5.4 41.1
2008 100 29 0.1 -2.0 6.2 39.4
2009 100 30 0.1 -0.5 4.5 38.5
2010 100 26 4.5 0.1 4.8 38.9
2011 100 30 9.0 -0.1 5.0 39.8
2012 100 31 11.2 -1.3 5.0 39.2
2013 100 29 14.5 -2.0 5.9 37.5
2014 100 26 13.8 0.2 4.6 35.2
2015 100 25 14.7 -0.1 4.9 14.3 4.8 15.9
2016 100 25 14.7 -0.5 5.2 0.0 0.0 29.3
11 1512 6006
12 1813 6970 30.2%
13 2032 8053 29.2%
14 3020 10029 37.5%
15 3461 12287 34.5%
P&G Hygiene and Health Care
Financials and Valuations

Standalone - Income Statement (INR Million)
Y/E June
Income from Operations
Less: Excise Duty
Total Income from Oper.
Change (%)
Raw Materials
% of Sales
Employees Cost
% of Sales
Other Expenses
% of Sales
Total Expenditure
% of Sales
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Int. and Finance Charges
Other Income
PBT bef. EO Exp.
PBT after EO Exp.
Total Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Margin (%)
FY11
10,400
368
10,032
8.5
3,896
38.8
506
5
3,992
39.8
8,394
83.7
1,639
16.3
222
1,417
0
354
1,771
1,771
259
14.6
1,512
1,512
-24.2
15.1
FY12
13,038
64
12,974
29.3
5,243
40.4
647
5
5,083
39.2
10,972
84.6
2,002
15.4
281
1,721
0
509
2,230
2,230
417
18.7
1,813
1,813
19.9
14
FY13
16,986
118
16,868
30
7,045
41.8
997
5.9
6,321
37.5
14,362
85.1
2,506
14.9
313
2,192
0
670
2,862
2,862
830
29
2,032
2,032
12.1
12
FY14
20,673
164
20,509
21.6
8,128
39.6
950
4.6
7,225
35.2
16,303
79.5
4,207
20.5
352
3,855
54
802
4,603
4,603
1,583
34.4
3,020
3,020
48.6
14.7
FY15
23,599
261
23,338
13.8
9,209
39.5
1,133
4.9
8,152
34.9
18,494
79.2
4,844
20.8
525
4,319
57
746
5,008
5,008
1,547
30.9
3,461
3,461
14.6
14.8
FY16E
26,230
655
25,574
9.6
9,565
37.4
1,304
5.1
8,670
33.9
19,539
76.4
6,036
23.6
622
5,413
62
810
6,161
6,161
1,972
32
4,190
4,190
21
16.4
FY17E
30,831
1,233
29,598
15.7
11,010
37.2
1,332
4.5
10,389
35.1
22,731
76.8
6,867
23.2
744
6,122
77
822
6,868
6,868
2,232
32.5
4,636
4,636
10.6
15.7
FY18E
36,981
1,479
35,503
19.9
13,172
37.1
1,633
4.6
12,390
34.9
27,195
76.6
8,308
23.4
866
7,441
86
937
8,292
8,292
2,737
33
5,556
5,556
19.9
15.6
Standalone - Balance Sheet
Net Profit Fixed Working Total Assets
EBITDA (Rs. In Depriciation EBI (Rs. In Interest (Rs. (Rs. In NW (Rs. In Long Term Assets / Non Capital (Rs. (Rs. In
billion) (Rs. In billion) billion) In billion) billion) billion) Loan Current In billion) billion)
1.2976 0.0792 1.2185 0.0011 1.3951 2.7266 0.0088 0.9456 1.7898 2.7354
1.4012 0.0898 1.3113 0.0001 0.8982 2.9118 - 1.2748 1.6370 2.9118
1.7760 0.1212 1.6548 0.0002 1.3142 3.4664 0.0434 1.3596 2.1502 3.5098
2.0870 0.1437 1.9433 0.0000 1.7885 4.4004 0.0541 1.5680 2.8865 4.4545
2.3002 0.2503 2.0500 0.0003 1.7977 5.3464 0.0224 1.9683 3.4005 5.3688
1.6351 0.2216 1.4136 0.0003 1.5088 6.0063 0.0524 2.8327 3.2260 6.0587
2.0021 0.2808 1.7213 0.0003 1.8129 6.9704 0.0256 3.2925 3.7034 6.9959
2.5056 0.3131 2.1925 0.0001 2.0322 8.0532 0.0279 4.0861 3.9950 8.0811
4.2069 0.3518 3.8551 0.0539 3.0202 10.0290 0.0294 4.9551 5.1033 10.0584
4.8442 0.5253 4.3189 0.0572 3.4614 12.2868 0.0333 5.9057 6.4144 12.3201
6.0583 0.5167 5.5416 0.0627 4.2250 16.5178 0.0357 5.3453 11.2082 16.5535
6.6463 0.5974 6.0489 0.1042 4.3273 5.2612 0.0417 5.5699 (0.2670) 5.3029
5 Yr. Time Frame

Return on Opening NW Reten. RatGrowth Mult.
20% 60% 12.0% -9.6% -6.2% -0.6% 3.9% 7.8% 9.5%
25% 60% 15.0% -7.1% -3.7% 2.0% 6.7% 10.6% 12.4%
30% 60% 18.0% -4.7% -1.2% 4.7% 9.5% 13.5% 15.4%
35% 60% 21.0% -2.3% 1.3% 7.3% 12.2% 16.4% 18.3%
40% 60% 24.0% 0.1% 3.9% 10.0% 15.0% 19.3% 21.2%
45% 60% 27.0% 2.6% 6.4% 12.7% 17.8% 22.2% 24.2%
48% 60% 28.8% 4.0% 7.9% 14.3% 19.5% 23.9% 25.9%
50% 60% 30.0% 5.0% 8.9% 15.3% 20.6% 25.1% 27.1%
Book Value 563
Entry Price 8200
10 Yr. Time Frame

Return on Opening NW Reten. RatGrowth Mult.
20% 60% 12.0% 0.6% 2.5% 5.5% 7.9% 9.9% 10.7%
25% 60% 15.0% 3.3% 5.2% 8.3% 10.8% 12.8% 13.7%
30% 60% 18.0% 6.0% 8.0% 11.1% 13.7% 15.7% 16.7%
35% 60% 21.0% 8.7% 10.7% 14.0% 16.5% 18.7% 19.6%
40% 60% 24.0% 11.4% 13.5% 16.8% 19.4% 21.6% 22.6%
45% 60% 27.0% 14.1% 16.2% 19.6% 22.3% 24.6% 25.6%
48% 60% 28.8% 15.7% 17.9% 21.3% 24.1% 26.3% 27.4%
50% 60% 30.0% 16.8% 19.0% 22.4% 25.2% 27.5% 28.5%
Book Value 563
Entry Price 8200
Net Cash
Flow from
Net Profit Total Assets Operations Capital
EBITDA (Rs. In Depriciation EBI (Rs. In Interest (Rs. (Rs. In NW (Rs. In Long Term (Rs. In (Rs. In Expen. (Rs. In
billion) (Rs. In billion) billion) In billion) billion) billion) Loan billion) billion) billion)
22.9 1.4 21.5 0.02 24.6 100 0.3 100 25.0 9.9
25.9 1.7 24.3 0.00 16.6 100 0.0 100 13.2 7.8
27.5 1.9 25.7 0.00 20.4 99 1.2 100 20.5 3.3
27.0 1.9 25.1 0.00 23.1 99 1.2 100 21.4 4.8
25.4 2.8 22.7 0.00 19.9 100 0.4 100 26.4 7.3
16.3 2.2 14.1 0.00 15.0 99 0.9 100 11.8 5.5
15.4 2.2 13.3 0.00 14.0 100 0.4 100 13.9 4.2
14.9 1.9 13.0 0.00 12.0 100 0.3 100 6.2 2.2
20.5 1.7 18.8 0.26 14.7 100 0.3 100 16.2 7.2
20.8 2.3 18.5 0.25 14.8 100 0.3 100 18.2 3.4
26.6 2.3 24.4 0.28 18.6 100 0.2 100 15.5 2.3
CASH FLOWS
Trade Trade Market Cap Enterprise

Payables Cash Inventories Receivables (Rs. in Value (Rs. in No. of o/s
(Rs. In Holdings (Rs. (Rs. In (Rs. In billion) billion) Shares (In
billion) In billion) billion) billion) 1/4/X+1 1/4/X+1 billion) NW ps EPS Dividend ps
0.7368 2.4576 0.2831 0.087681 29 27 0.03246 84 43.0 25
0.8481 0.2924 0.3136 0.1464 23 22 0.03246 90 27.7 20
1.3084 1.6648 0.4652 0.1334 25 24 0.03246 107 40.5 20
1.1567 0.8803 0.5398 0.2251 49 48 0.03246 136 55.1 22.5
1.9900 2.3233 0.5441 0.2868 68 66 0.03246 165 55.4 22.5
1.5412 1.2995 0.6533 0.3102 65 64 0.03246 185 46.5 22.5
2.5536 1.8237 0.9227 0.4815 80 78 0.03246 215 55.8 22.5
2.0446 1.6603 1.1890 0.8087 85 83 0.03246 248 62.6 25
2.3032 2.6908 1.1852 0.8605 175 172 0.03246 309 93 27.5
3.7230 6.1858 1.1907 1.1394 203 197 0.03246 379 107 30.25
3.2413 10.7318 1.2748 1.4962 211 200 0.03246 509 130 36
1.1683 1.7735 1.3280 337 336 0.03246 162 133 389
Probabilities Weighted
of Growth Growth
20% 2.4%
20% 3.0%
18% 3.2%
15% 3.2%
12% 2.9%
8% 2.2%
5% 1.4%
2% 0.6%
100% 18.9%
Free Cash
Flow(Rs. In
billion)
15.0
5.4
17.2
16.6
19.1
6.3
9.7
3.9
9.1
14.9
13.2
Net Cash
Flow from Manufact. &
Operations Capital Free Cash Other Advertising &
(Rs. In Expen. (Rs. In Flow(Rs. In Material Expenses Publicity Royalty EBIDTA EBIDTA
billion) billion) billion) Costs Margin Margin Margin Margin Margin Growth
1.4155 0.5628 0.8527 30.4% 42.9% 22.9%
0.7129 0.4203 0.2926 26.7% 46.5% 25.9% 8.0%
1.3216 0.2152 1.1064 28.9% 45.5% 27.5% 26.8%
1.6557 0.3735 1.2821 30.5% 43.0% 27.0% 17.5%
2.3869 0.6579 1.7290 26.3% 43.7% 25.4% 10.2%
1.1839 0.5536 0.6303 29.9% 44.8% 16.3% -28.9%
1.8006 0.5449 1.2557 30.5% 44.2% 15.4% 22.4%
1.0420 0.3776 0.6644 29.3% 43.4% 14.9% 25.1%
3.3321 1.4710 1.8611 25.6% 39.9% 20.5% 67.9%
4.2557 0.7843 3.4714 24.8% 39.8% 14.3% 4.8% 20.8% 15.1%
3.5246 0.5265 2.9981 24.7% 34.5% 0.0% 0.0% 26.6% 25.1%
4.4526 0.4413 4.0113 26.4% 31.9% 28.6% 9.7%
21.6%
Franchise Moat
Net Cash Flow Capital @ Franchise Liabilities /
NP Margin NP Growth FCF Margin FCF / NW Growth 15%) Value / Sales Total Income) Accrual Ratio
24.6% 15.0% 6.6 116.0% 13.0% 1.0
16.6% -35.6% 5.4% 10.7% -49.6% 3.1 56.9% 15.7% 1.3
20.4% 46.3% 17.2% 38.0% 85.4% 5.3 82.1% 20.3% 1.0
23.1% 36.1% 16.6% 37.0% 25.3% 7.5 97.2% 14.9% 1.1
19.9% 0.5% 19.1% 39.3% 44.2% 6.6 73.4% 22.0% 0.8
15.0% -16.1% 6.3% 11.8% -50.4% 4.1 40.4% 15.4% 1.3
14.0% 20.2% 9.7% 20.9% 52.1% 5.1 39.4% 19.7% 1.0
12.0% 12.1% 3.9% 9.5% -42.1% 5.5 32.6% 12.1% 2.0
14.7% 48.6% 9.1% 23.1% 219.8% 10.1 49.3% 11.2% 0.9
14.8% 14.6% 14.9% 34.6% 27.7% 10.8 46.2% 16.0% 0.8
18.6% 22.1% 13.2% 24.4% -17.2% 11.6 51.2% 14.2% 1.2
18.6% 2.4% 17.3% 24.3% 26.3% 23.6 101.7% 0.0% 1.0
17.2%
Owner
Capex / Net Sales / Fixed Sales / Total Earnings (Rs. 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR
Capex / Depr. Capex / Sales Profit Sales / Depr. Assets Assets In billion) Sales EBIDTA
7.1 10% 40% 71.6 6.0 2.1 0.9
4.7 8% 47% 60.2 4.2 1.9 0.6
1.8 3% 16% 53.2 4.7 1.8 1.2
2.6 5% 21% 53.9 4.9 1.7 1.6
2.6 7% 37% 36.1 4.6 1.7 1.4
2.5 6% 37% 45.3 3.5 1.7 1.2 12.1% 4.7%
1.9 4% 30% 46.2 3.9 1.9 1.5 19.1% 7.4%
1.2 2% 19% 53.9 4.1 2.1 2.0 21.2% 7.1%
4.2 7% 49% 58.3 4.1 2.0 1.9 21.5% 15.0%
1.5 3% 23% 44.4 4.0 1.9 3.2 20.9% 16.1%
1.0 2% 12% 44.0 4.3 1.4 4.2 17.8% 29.9%
0.7 2% 10% 38.8 4.2 4.4 4.5 12.3% 27.1%
PROFITABILITY OF RETAINED EARNINGS Effiency Ratios DU P
Inventory Debt Credit

Storage Collection Payment
5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR Return on 5 Yr. Diffential 4 Yr. Diffential 3 Yr. Diffential Period Period Period
Net Profit Market Cap Opening NW Retention Ratio Profit by NW Profit by NW Profit by NW (days) (days) (days)
41.8% 18 18 149
32.9% 27.7% 21 10 205
45.1% 50.6% 26 8 255
51.6% 59.2% 23.5% 25 11 178
40.9% 59.4% 15.4% 36.9% 22 12 260
1.6% 17.3% 28.2% 51.6% 3.5% 19.7% 7.7% 24 11 144
15.1% 28.5% 30.2% 59.7% 22.5% 14.2% 1.0% 26 14 172
9.1% 27.6% 29.2% 60.1% 15.7% 6.7% 8.7% 26 17 101
11.0% 29.1% 37.5% 70.4% 21.9% 26.1% 37.6% 21 15 104
14.0% 24.4% 34.5% 71.6% 24.0% 31.1% 31.0% 19 18 147
22.9% 26.6% 34.4% 72.3% 25.8% 25.3% 25.9% 20 24 132
19.0% 26.2% -191.8% -147.1% -82.2% -27.4% 28 21
34.8% 56.5%
DU PONT ANALYSIS FLOAT ANALYSIS
Financial Operating Total Funds

Sales / Total Total Assets / Assets (Rs. In Assets (Rs. In Employed (Rs. Float (Rs. In
NP / Sales Assets NW ROA NP / NW billion) billion) In billion) billion)
24.6% 2.1 1.0 51.0% 51.2% 2.5 1.0 3.5 0.7
16.6% 1.9 1.0 30.8% 30.8% 0.3 3.5 3.8 0.8
20.4% 1.8 1.0 37.4% 37.9% 1.7 3.2 4.8 1.3
23.1% 1.7 1.0 40.1% 40.6% 0.9 4.7 5.6 1.2
19.9% 1.7 1.0 33.5% 33.6% 2.3 5.0 7.4 2.0
15.0% 1.7 1.0 24.9% 25.1% 1.3 6.3 7.6 1.5
14.0% 1.9 1.0 25.9% 26.0% 1.8 7.7 9.5 2.6
12.0% 2.1 1.0 25.1% 25.2% 1.7 8.5 10.1 2.0
14.7% 2.0 1.0 30.0% 30.1% 2.7 9.7 12.4 2.3
14.8% 1.9 1.0 28.1% 28.2% 6.2 9.9 16.0 3.7
18.6% 1.4 1.0 25.5% 25.6% 10.7 9.1 19.8 3.2
18.6% 4.4 1.0 81.6% 82.2% 1.2 4.1 5.3
{ Float as percentage of Total Funds E

{ FA+OA } { Float funding of OA }
17.2% 1.8 31.2%

VALUATIONS
Operating CF
less
(NW+Float) / Depriciation /
Float / Total Funds NP / (NW+LT Operating Mcap / Net Mcap / Fixed
(FA+OA) Float / OA Employed Debt) Assets Profit Mcap / Sales Mcap / NW Assets
21.2% 72.6% 99.7% 51.0% 131.7% 20.9 5.2 10.7 30.9
22.6% 24.5% 100.0% 30.8% 18.0% 25.3 4.2 7.8 17.8
27.2% 41.5% 99.1% 37.4% 38.1% 19.1 3.9 7.3 18.5
20.6% 24.5% 99.0% 40.1% 32.0% 27.2 6.3 11.1 31.1
27.0% 39.5% 99.7% 33.5% 42.4% 37.9 7.5 12.8 34.6
20.3% 24.5% 99.3% 24.9% 15.3% 43.0 6.5 10.8 22.9
26.7% 33.1% 99.7% 25.9% 19.7% 43.9 6.1 11.4 24.2
20.2% 24.2% 99.7% 25.1% 8.6% 41.8 5.0 10.6 20.8
18.6% 23.8% 99.8% 30.0% 30.8% 57.8 8.5 17.4 35.2
23.2% 37.8% 99.8% 28.1% 37.8% 58.6 8.7 16.5 34.3
16.4% 35.8% 99.8% 25.5% 33.2% 49.9 9.3 12.8 39.5
77.9 14.5 64.1 60.6
at as percentage of Total Funds Employed }

{ Float
{ Nonfunding
Interest
ofbearing
OA } Funds Employed }
37.6 6.2 11.6 27.0

Cash
EV / EBI EV / Sales Yield
22.0 4.7 2.9%
17.1 4.2 1.3%
14.2 3.6 4.4%
24.6 6.2 2.6%
32.1 7.3 2.5%
45.0 6.3 1.0%
45.2 6.0 1.6%
38.0 4.9 0.8%
44.6 8.4 1.1%
45.5 8.4 1.7%
36.1 8.8 1.4%
55.6 14.5 1.2%
32.8 6.0
Earnings per Book value
Nifty Close share per share Return on Mcap / Net Mcap / Book 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR
(15/6/X) (15/6/X) (15/6/X) Opening NW Profit Value Nifty EPS
1999 1403 64.3 360.7 21.8 3.9
2000 1445 60.3 300.5 16.7% 24.0 4.8
2001 1088 71.6 387.1 23.8% 15.2 2.8
2002 1086 64.9 329.0 16.8% 16.7 3.3
2003 1052 87.6 463.3 26.6% 12.0 2.3
2004 1501 125 521.2 27.0% 12.0 2.9 1.4% 14.2%
2005 2129 151 554.3 29.0% 14.1 3.8 8.1% 20.2%
2006 2799 176 694.5 31.7% 15.9 4.0 20.8% 19.7%
2007 4171 210 778.3 30.3% 19.8 5.4 30.9% 26.5%
2008 4573 235 1009 30.2% 19.5 4.5 34.2% 21.8%
2009 4484 219 1232 21.7% 20.5 3.6 24.5% 11.9%
2010 5222 239 1404 19.4% 21.9 3.7 19.7% 9.6%
2011 5448 271 1612 19.3% 20.1 3.4 14.2% 9.0%
2012 5139 301 1748 18.7% 17.1 2.9 4.3% 7.4%
2013 5808 331 1892 19.0% 17.5 3.1 4.9% 7.1%
2014 7534 367 2140 19.4% 20.5 3.5 10.9% 10.9%
2015 8014 361 2350 16.9% 22.2 3.4 8.9% 8.6%
2016 8207 364 2414 15.5% 22.5 3.4 8.5% 6.1%
2017 9578 396 2661 16.4% 24.2 3.6 13.3% 5.6%
2018 10818 394 2908 14.8% 27.4 3.7 13.2% 3.5%
2019 11823 404 3136 13.9% 29.2 3.8 9.4% 2.0%
2020 9239 436 3513 13.9% 21.2 2.6 2.9% 3.8%
20.3% 19.8 3.6 10.2% 8.9%
1.069698 1.944047 1.444835

1.472859 2.507292 1.84491
2.573018 2.4565 1.794089
3.842176 3.244989 2.365519
4.347309 2.682909 2.178453
2.987342 1.751297 2.363611
2.453362 1.578363 2.532503
1.94637 1.539142 2.320672
1.231958 1.432083 2.246018
1.27029 1.410145 1.874402
1.680096 1.675186 1.737372
2.039503 1.944215 2.03688

5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr. Diffential 5 Yr. GM of 32.0
Book Value Profit by NW RONW
Mcap / Net Profit
28.0
Mcap / Book Value
24.0
7.6% 37.9% 21.7% 20.0

13.0% 35.8% 24.2%
12.4% 33.9% 25.6%
16.0
18.8% 32.4% 28.9%
16.9% 27.0% 29.6%
18.8% 13.2% 28.3% 12.0
20.4% 10.3% 26.1%
18.3% 10.3% 23.7% 8.0
17.6% 9.4% 21.5%
13.4% 10.9% 19.6% 4.0
11.7% 16.3% 19.1%
10.9% 12.9% 18.6%
0.0
8.4% 11.7% 17.8%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2010
2011
8.8% 10.4% 17.4%
9.0% 6.2% 16.5%
7.9% 3.8% 15.5%
8.4% 6.4% 14.9%
12.3%
2007
cap / Net Profit

2008
cap / Book Value

2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
DATA
Employee Other
Revenue from Purchases / Changes in Benefit Depr. & expenses / Interest
Operations Cost of Sales Inventories Expense (Rs.in Ammort. (Rs. Adm. Exp. (Rs. EBITDA (Rs. In Expense (Rs.
(Rs.in billion) (Rs.in billion) (Rs. in billion) billion) In billion) In billion) billion) In billion)
2005 1.858 0.300 0.002 0.927 0.050 0.271 0.308 0.001
2006 2.356 0.351 - 1.197 0.067 0.341 0.399 0.002
2007 3.080 0.361 - 1.543 0.087 0.485 0.604 0.003
2008 4.020 0.451 - 2.136 0.134 0.685 0.614 0.021
2009 4.194 0.340 - 2.276 0.160 0.763 0.656 0.038
2010 3.882 0.486 - 2.003 0.166 0.712 0.514 0.017
2011 4.159 0.538 - 2.273 0.172 0.876 0.300 0.019
2012 5.145 0.499 0.005 2.781 0.205 1.189 0.465 0.023
2013 6.047 0.449 -0.003 3.515 0.237 1.395 0.453 0.039
2014 7.721 0.727 0.003 4.030 0.350 1.600 1.011 0.018
2015 8.494 0.755 -0.003 4.606 0.255 1.362 1.518 0.000
2016 10.752 0.697 0.003 5.765 0.226 1.817 2.245 -
2017 12.330 0.747 0.000 6.693 0.269 2.169 2.451 -
2018 13.863 0.773 - 7.487 0.254 2.143 3.207 -
2019 15.969 1.006 (0.02) 8.426 0.251 2.404 3.899 -
Average
Goemetric Mean
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) = Growth/Retention Ratio
` Adj. NW EPS ` Adj. NW

2020 180 2019 151
2021 215 58 2020 180
2022 256 69 2021 215
2023 306 82 2022 256
2024 364 98 2023 306
2025 434 117 2024 364
2026 518 139 2025 434
2027 617 166 2026 518
2028 735 197 2027 617
2029 877 235 2028 735
2030 1045 281 2029 877
MP @ 2030 6688 5611 MP @ 2029 5611
PV 1672 1403 PV 1403
CMP 786 786 CMP 688
Other Exceptional Profit before Net Tax Market Cap No. of o/s
Income. (Rs. Items (Rs. In Tax (Rs. In Expense (Rs. Net Profit (Rs. NW (Rs. In Total Assets (Rs. in billion) Shares (In
In billion) billion) billion) In billion) In billion) billion) (Rs. In billion) (30/6/X) billion)
0.011 - 0.317 0.054 0.263 0.547 0.570 6 0.031138
0.007 - 0.404 0.061 0.343 0.659 0.694 6 0.031138
0.004 - 0.605 0.084 0.521 0.926 0.964 10 0.031138
0.023 - 0.615 0.087 0.528 1.191 1.797 6 0.031138
0.002 - 0.619 0.038 0.582 1.518 1.698 4 0.031138
0.009 - 0.506 0.018 0.488 1.751 2.143 9 0.031138
0.039 - 0.320 -0.005 0.325 1.824 2.093 8 0.031138
0.061 - 0.503 0.164 0.339 1.891 1.997 7 0.031138
0.062 0.159 0.318 0.108 0.210 1.918 2.012 6 0.031138
0.157 - 1.150 0.399 0.751 2.348 2.468 19 0.031138
0.041 - 1.560 0.531 1.029 2.834 2.941 37 0.031138
0.119 - 2.363 0.815 1.548 3.857 4.039 53 0.031138
0.164 - 2.615 0.882 1.733 5.590 5.781 51 0.031138
0.432 - 3.639 1.239 2.400 7.384 7.572 53 0.062276
0.435 - 4.334 1.434 2.900 9.428 9.565 44 0.062276
7.5 7.6
1.59%
EPS Mcap / NW Multiple

Return on Opening NW Reten. RatioGrowth Mult.
48 RONW ~ 32% 15% 50% 7.5%
58 Retention Ratio ~ 60% 20% 50% 10.0%
69 P/E 20 25% 50% 12.5%
82 P/B 6.4 32% 50% 16.0%
98 ROA 32% 35% 50% 17.5%
117 40% 50% 20.0%
139 42% 50% 21.0%
166 32.0% 45% 50% 22.5%
197 Book Value
235 1.19 Entry Price
4707
1177
688 10 Yr. T
42% Mcap / NW Multiple
15% 50% 7.5%
20% 50% 10.0%
25% 50% 12.5%
32% 50% 16.0%
35% 50% 17.5%
40% 50% 20.0%
42% 50% 21.0%
45% 50% 22.5%
Book Value
Entry Price
Net Cash Flow

from Free Cash Employee
Operations Capital Expen. Flow (Rs. In Expense EBIDTA EBIDTA
NW ps EPS Dividend ps (Rs. In billion) (Rs. In billion) billion) Margin Margin Growth
17.6 8.4 5.5 0.268 0.174 0.094 49.9% 16.6%
21.2 11.0 6.5 0.387 0.193 0.194 50.8% 17.0% 29.7%
29.7 16.7 7 0.611 0.330 0.281 50.1% 19.6% 51.2%
38.3 17.0 7 0.146 0.415 -0.269 53.1% 15.3% 1.7%
48.8 18.7 7 0.876 0.138 0.737 54.3% 15.6% 6.8%
56.2 15.7 7 0.138 0.088 0.051 51.6% 13.2% -21.6%
58.6 10.4 7 0.715 0.291 0.424 54.7% 7.2% -41.7%
60.7 10.9 7 0.562 0.287 0.274 54.1% 9.0% 55.2%
61.6 6.7 5 0.369 0.338 0.030 58.1% 7.5% -2.6%
75.4 24.1 9 1.261 0.240 1.021 52.2% 13.1% 123.0%
91 33.0 11 1.434 0.331 1.103 54.2% 17.9% 50.1%
124 49.7 14 1.211 0.382 0.829 53.6% 20.9% 47.8%
180 55.7 16 1.443 0.261 1.182 54.3% 19.9% 9.2%
119 38.5 11 1.971 0.118 1.853 54.0% 23.1% 30.8%
151 46.6 13.5 2.149 0.315 1.834 52.8% 24.4% 21.6%
14.0%
2.3
5 Yr. Time Frame

3 4 5 6 7 8 Probabilitie Weighted
-0.5% 5.3% 10.2% 14.2% 17.8% 21.0% 20% 1.5%
1.8% 7.8% 12.7% 16.9% 20.6% 23.8% 20% 2.0%
4.1% 10.2% 15.3% 19.6% 23.3% 26.6% 18% 2.3%
7.3% 13.7% 18.9% 23.3% 27.1% 30.6% 15% 2.4%
8.7% 15.1% 20.4% 24.9% 28.8% 32.3% 12% 2.1%
11.0% 17.6% 23.0% 27.5% 31.5% 35.1% 8% 1.6%
11.9% 18.6% 24.0% 28.6% 32.6% 36.2% 5% 1.1%
13.3% 20.0% 25.5% 30.2% 34.3% 37.9% 2% 0.5%
151 100% 13.4%
670
10 Yr. Time Frame

3 4 5 6 7 8
Growth Mult.
3.4% 6.4% 8.8% 10.8% 12.5% 14.1%
5.8% 8.9% 11.3% 13.4% 15.2% 16.7%
8.2% 11.4% 13.9% 16.0% 17.8% 19.4%
11.6% 14.8% 17.4% 19.6% 21.4% 23.1%
13.0% 16.3% 18.9% 21.1% 23.0% 24.7%
15.4% 18.8% 21.5% 23.7% 25.6% 27.3%
16.4% 19.8% 22.5% 24.7% 26.7% 28.4%
17.8% 21.3% 24.0% 26.3% 28.2% 30.0%
151
670
Franchise
Value (Cost of
Net Cash Flow Capital @ Franchise 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR
NP Margin NP Growth FCF Margin Growth 15%) Value / Sales Accrual Ratio Sales EBIDTA
14.2% 5.1% 1 0.6 1.0
14.6% 30.6% 8.2% 44.3% 2 0.7 0.9
16.9% 51.8% 9.1% 58.0% 3 0.8 0.9
13.1% 1.4% -6.7% -76.2% 2 0.6 3.6
13.9% 10.1% 17.6% 501.0% 2 0.6 0.7
12.6% -16.1% 1.3% -84.2% 2 0.4 3.5 15.9% 10.8%
7.8% -33.4% 10.2% 416.4% 0 0.1 0.5 12.0% -5.6%
6.6% 4.4% 5.3% -21.4% 0 0.1 0.6 10.8% -5.1%
3.5% -38.2% 0.5% -34.4% -1 -0.1 0.6 8.5% -5.9%
9.7% 257.8% 13.2% 242.3% 5 0.6 0.6 13.0% 9.1%
12.1% 37.0% 13.0% 13.7% 7 0.8 0.7 17.0% 24.2%
14.4% 50.4% 7.7% -15.6% 6 0.6 1.3 20.9% 49.6%
14.1% 11.9% 9.6% 19.2% 6 0.5 1.2 19.1% 39.4%
17.3% 38.5% 13.4% 36.5% 9 0.6 1.2 18.0% 47.9%
18.2% 20.8% 11.5% 9.1% 10 0.6 1.3 15.6% 31.0%
11.0%
5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR Return on Retention 5 Yr. Diffential 4 Yr. Diffential 3 Yr. Diffential Sales / Total
Net Profit Market Cap Opening NW Ratio Profit by NW Profit by NW Profit by NW NP / Sales Assets
34.9% 14.2% 3.3
62.8% 41.0% 14.6% 3.4
79.0% 58.2% 16.9% 3.2
57.1% 58.8% 41.2% 13.1% 2.2
48.8% 62.5% 32.8% 27.7% 13.9% 2.5
13.2% 8.4% 32.2% 55.4% 18.7% 13.3% -4.0% 12.6% 1.8
-1.1% 6.2% 18.6% 33.0% -1.6% -21.8% -32.2% 7.8% 2.0
-8.2% -8.1% 18.6% 35.8% -18.8% -27.0% 52.9% 6.6% 2.6
-16.9% -2.3% 11.1% 25.8% -43.8% -92.9% 30.4% 3.5% 3.0
5.2% 34.5% 39.2% 62.7% 20.4% 44.0% -28.2% 9.7% 3.1
16.1% 33.9% 43.8% 66.7% 50.0% 69.7% -25.0% 12.1% 2.9
36.6% 47.3% 54.6% 71.8% 60.1% 61.5% -37.9% 14.4% 2.7
38.5% 49.6% 44.9% 71.3% 37.7% 41.5% 17.6% 14.1% 2.1
62.8% 56.5% 42.9% 71.5% 40.1% 32.8% 18.6% 17.3% 1.8
31.0% 17.8% 39.3% 71.0% 30.4% 28.4% 71.5% 18.2% 1.7
43.8% 69.1% 14.0% 2.4

VALUATIONS
Total Assets / Mcap / Net

NW ROA NP / NW Profit Mcap / Sales Mcap / NW EV / Sales Cash Yield
1.0 46.1% 48.1% 22.1 3.1 10.6 3.1 1.6%
1.1 49.5% 52.1% 16.4 2.4 8.5 2.4 3.4%
1.0 54.1% 56.3% 20.1 3.4 11.3 3.4 2.7%
1.5 29.4% 44.4% 12.0 1.6 5.3 1.7 -4.3%
1.1 34.2% 38.3% 7.5 1.0 2.9 1.1 16.9%
1.2 22.8% 27.9% 17.8 2.2 5.0 2.3 0.6%
1.1 15.5% 17.8% 23.4 1.8 4.2 1.9 5.6%
1.1 17.0% 18.0% 20.2 1.3 3.6 1.4 4.0%
1.0 10.4% 10.9% 26.9 0.9 2.9 0.9 0.5%
1.1 30.4% 32.0% 25.6 2.5 8.2 2.8 5.3%
1.0 35.0% 36.3% 36.4 4.4 13.2 4.8 2.9%
1.0 38.3% 40.1% 34.1 4.9 13.7 4.9 1.6%
1.0 30.0% 31.0% 29.6 4.2 9.2 4.2 2.3%
1.0 31.7% 32.5% 22.1 3.8 7.2 3.8 3.5%
1.0 30.3% 30.8% 15.0 2.7 4.6 2.7 4.2%
32.5% 27.1 3.8 9.4 3.9

Date Close Price Ratio of 30d
EMA to 50d
50d EMA 30d EMA EMA
13-May-19 845.45 - - -
14-May-19 838.75 - - -
15-May-19 849.20 - - -
16-May-19 851.40 - - - 900.00
17-May-19 864.85 - - -
20-May-19 861.40 - - - 850.00
21-May-19 840.95 - - -
22-May-19 850.45 - - - 800.00
23-May-19 847.70 - - -
24-May-19 862.50 - - -
750.00
27-May-19 874.15 - - -
28-May-19 885.30 - - -
29-May-19 888.60 - - -
700.00
30-May-19 884.50 - - -
31-May-19 871.60 - -
650.00
-
3-Jun-19 880.15 - - -
600.00
4-Jun-19 868.00 - - - 3
5
6-Jun-19 855.35 - - - 550.00 C
7-Jun-19 857.20 - - -
10-Jun-19 857.20 - - - 500.00
25-Jul-19
23-Jul-19
27-Jul-19
11-Jun-19 867.50 - - -
12-Jun-19 855.55 - - -
13-Jun-19 845.95 - - -
14-Jun-19 861.40 - - -
17-Jun-19 866.85 - - -
18-Jun-19 870.00 - - -
19-Jun-19 848.85 - - -
20-Jun-19 854.55 - - -
21-Jun-19 860.70 - - ### -
24-Jun-19 851.60 - 860.59 -
25-Jun-19 858.10 - 860.42 -
26-Jun-19 866.50 - 860.83 -
27-Jun-19 875.90 - 861.83 -
28-Jun-19 884.90 - 863.37 -
1-Jul-19 898.90 - 865.74 -
2-Jul-19 920.80 - 869.41 -
3-Jul-19 921.25 - 872.87 -
4-Jul-19 914.35 - 875.63 -
5-Jul-19 889.85 - 876.58 -
8-Jul-19 856.90 - 875.27 -
9-Jul-19 853.90 - 873.84 -
10-Jul-19 849.65 - 872.23 -
11-Jul-19 843.05 - 870.28 -
12-Jul-19 849.50 - 868.90 -
15-Jul-19 816.50 - 865.41 -
16-Jul-19 814.70 - 862.03 -
17-Jul-19 742.45 - 854.05 -
18-Jul-19 732.05 - 845.92 -
19-Jul-19 701.45 - 836.29 -
22-Jul-19 679.75 851.76 825.85 -
23-Jul-19 672.20 844.58 815.61 1.213
24-Jul-19 657.30 837.09 805.06 1.225
25-Jul-19 653.80 829.76 794.97 1.216
26-Jul-19 645.55 822.39 785.01 1.216
29-Jul-19 638.45 815.03 775.24 1.214
30-Jul-19 619.20 807.20 764.84 1.235
31-Jul-19 636.85 800.38 756.30 1.188
1-Aug-19 615.00 792.97 746.88 1.214
2-Aug-19 622.05 786.13 738.56 1.187
5-Aug-19 604.50 778.87 729.62 1.207
6-Aug-19 626.50 772.77 722.75 1.154
7-Aug-19 619.00 766.62 715.83 1.156
8-Aug-19 631.45 761.21 710.21 1.125
9-Aug-19 631.50 756.03 704.96 1.116
13-Aug-19 610.85 750.22 698.69 1.144
14-Aug-19 612.85 744.72 692.96 1.131
16-Aug-19 623.45 739.87 688.33 1.104
19-Aug-19 629.50 735.46 684.41 1.087
20-Aug-19 619.45 730.82 680.08 1.098
21-Aug-19 633.55 726.93 676.98 1.069
22-Aug-19 606.75 722.12 672.29 1.108
23-Aug-19 649.25 719.21 670.76 1.033
26-Aug-19 647.20 716.32 669.19 1.034
27-Aug-19 651.75 713.74 668.02 1.025
28-Aug-19 648.60 711.14 666.73 1.028
29-Aug-19 628.80 707.84 664.20 1.056
30-Aug-19 632.25 704.82 662.07 1.047
3-Sep-19 627.45 701.72 659.76 1.051
4-Sep-19 610.25 698.07 656.46 1.076
5-Sep-19 618.70 694.89 653.94 1.057
6-Sep-19 629.70 692.28 652.33 1.036
9-Sep-19 638.15 690.12 651.38 1.021
11-Sep-19 644.90 688.31 650.95 1.009
12-Sep-19 645.50 686.60 650.59 1.008
13-Sep-19 647.40 685.03 650.37 1.005
16-Sep-19 661.50 684.09 651.12 0.984
17-Sep-19 634.45 682.10 650.01 1.025
18-Sep-19 638.30 680.35 649.23 1.017
19-Sep-19 626.50 678.20 647.71 1.034
20-Sep-19 644.20 676.84 647.48 1.005
23-Sep-19 649.20 675.73 647.59 0.998
24-Sep-19 685.50 676.12 650.12 0.948
25-Sep-19 667.40 675.77 651.27 0.976
500.00
550.00
600.00
650.00
700.00
750.00
800.00
850.00
900.00
23-Jul-19
25-Jul-19
27-Jul-19
29-Jul-19
31-Jul-19
50d EMA
30d EMA
2-Aug-19
Closing Price
4-Aug-19
6-Aug-19
8-Aug-19
10-Aug-19
12-Aug-19
14-Aug-19
16-Aug-19
18-Aug-19
20-Aug-19
22-Aug-19
24-Aug-19
26-Aug-19
28-Aug-19
30-Aug-19
1-Sep-19
3-Sep-19
5-Sep-19
7-Sep-19
9-Sep-19
11-Sep-19
13-Sep-19
15-Sep-19
17-Sep-19
19-Sep-19
5-Sep-19
7-Sep-19
9-Sep-19
11-Sep-19
13-Sep-19
15-Sep-19
17-Sep-19
19-Sep-19
21-Sep-19
23-Sep-19
25-Sep-19
DATA
Operation & Market Cap

Sales (Rs. In Employee Cost Other Cost (Rs. EBITDA (Rs. In Net Profit (Rs. NW (Rs. In Total Assets (Rs. in billion)
billion) (Rs. In billion) In billion) billion) In billion) billion) (Rs. In billion) (30/6/X)
2005 98.24 29.10 19.77 34.78 38.36 652
2006 133.78 37.98 29.67 59.99 63.27 851
2007 189.14 53.68 42.13 88.50 96.40 1124
2008 233.48 78.01 91.08 64.40 50.26 122.00 130.88 840
2009 273.86 99.02 107.42 67.43 52.56 156.00 166.69 763
2010 303.01 108.80 104.55 89.67 70.01 183.67 190.00 1470
2011 379.29 137.26 124.20 117.82 90.68 244.05 251.47 2317
2012 493.22 185.72 158.87 148.63 104.13 294.79 309.29 2071
2013 629.89 240.40 209.10 180.40 139.17 385.46 404.24 3832
2014 818.09 298.60 267.97 251.53 191.64 491.95 514.67 4897
2015 946.48 387.01 314.66 244.82 198.52 506.35 533.43 4897
2016 1086.46 417.69 362.87 305.90 242.92 653.61 674.09 4926
Average
NW ps EPS
2016 332
2017 390 116 RONW ~ 35%
2018 458 136 Retention Ratio ~ 50%
2019 538 160 P/E
2020 632 188 P/B
2021 743 221 ROA
2022 873 260
2023 1026 306
2024 1205 359
2025 1416 422
2026 1664 496
MP @ 2025 10483 8922
PV 2621 2230
CMP 2500 2500
Discount 5% -12%
CASHGROWTH
FLOWS & PROFITABILITY
No. of o/s Net Cash Flow Capital Free Cash

Shares (In from Operations Expen. (Rs. In Flow (Rs. In Employ EBIDTA
billion) NW ps EPS Dividend ps (Rs. In billion) billion) billion) Margin Margin
0.4801 72.4 41.2 11.5 20.92 3.68 17.24 29.6%
0.4893 122.6 60.6 13.5 24.88 6.59 18.30 28.4%
0.9786 90.4 43.0 11.5 34.72 12.49 22.23 28.4%
0.9786 124.7 51.4 14 38.95 12.71 26.24 33.4% 27.6%
1.9572 79.7 26.9 14 53.54 11.09 42.45 36.2% 24.6%
1.9572 93.8 35.8 10 74.06 10.45 63.61 35.9% 29.6%
1.9572 124.7 46.3 14 66.38 18.50 47.88 36.2% 31.1%
1.9572 150.6 53.2 17 70.08 20.07 50.01 37.7% 30.1%
1.9572 196.9 71.1 22 116.15 26.38 89.77 38.2% 28.6%
1.9587 251.2 97.8 32 147.51 31.26 116.25 36.5% 30.7%
1.9587 258.5 101.4 79 193.69 29.49 164.20 40.9% 25.9%
1.9704 331.7 123.3 43.5 38.4% 28.2%
28.5%
#DIV/0!
Return on Opening NW Reten. Rat Growth Mult.
RONW ~ 35% 25% 50% 12.5% -6.4% -0.9%
Retention Ratio ~ 50% 30% 50% 15.0% -4.3% 1.3%
18 35% 50% 17.5% -2.3% 3.5%
6.3 40% 50% 20.0% -0.2% 5.7%
35% 45% 50% 22.5% 1.9% 7.9%
48% 50% 24.0% 3.1% 9.2%
50% 50% 25.0% 4.0% 10.1%
52% 50% 26.0% 4.8% 11.0%
35.0% Book Value 332
Entry Price 2500
17.5% 10 Yr. Time Frame
Mcap / NW Multiple 2.5 3
Return on Opening NW Reten. Rat Growth Mult.
25% 50% 12.5% 0.7% 2.6%
30% 50% 15.0% 3.0% 4.9%
35% 50% 17.5% 5.2% 7.2%
40% 50% 20.0% 7.5% 9.4%
45% 50% 22.5% 9.7% 11.7%
48% 50% 24.0% 11.0% 13.1%
50% 50% 25.0% 11.9% 14.0%
52% 50% 26.0% 12.8% 14.9%
Book Value 332
Entry Price 2500
Franchise
Value (Cost of
EBIDTA Net Cash Capital @ Franchise 5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR
Growth NP Margin NP Growth FCF Margin Flow Growth 15%) Value / Sales Accrual Ratio Sales EBIDTA
20.1% 17.6% 97 1.0 0.9
30.5% 22.2% 50.1% 13.7% 18.9% 138 1.0 1.2
41.3% 22.3% 42.0% 11.8% 39.5% 192 1.0 1.2
20.0% 21.5% 19.3% 11.2% 12.2% 213 0.9 1.3
4.7% 19.2% 4.6% 15.5% 37.5% 194 0.7 1.0
33.0% 23.1% 33.2% 21.0% 38.3% 283 0.9 0.9 25.3% 25.2%
31.4% 23.9% 29.5% 12.6% -10.4% 360 1.0 1.4 23.2% 25.4%
26.2% 21.1% 14.8% 10.1% 5.6% 399 0.8 1.5 21.1% 22.6%
21.4% 22.1% 33.6% 14.3% 65.7% 542 0.9 1.2 22.0% 22.9%
39.4% 23.4% 37.7% 14.2% 27.0% 786 1.0 1.3 24.5% 30.1%
-2.7% 21.0% 3.6% 17.3% 31.3% 817 0.9 1.0 25.6% 22.2%
24.9% 22.4% 22.4% 966 0.9 23.4% 21.0%
21.8%
5 6 6.5 7 Probabilities Weighted

of Growth Growth
3.6% 7.5% 9.2% 10.9% 22% 2.8%
5.9% 9.9% 11.6% 13.3% 18% 2.7%
8.2% 12.3% 14.1% 15.8% 18% 3.2%
10.5% 14.7% 16.5% 18.2% 15% 3.0%
12.8% 17.0% 18.9% 20.7% 12% 2.7%
14.2% 18.5% 20.4% 22.2% 8% 1.9%
15.2% 19.4% 21.4% 23.2% 5% 1.3%
16.1% 20.4% 22.3% 24.2% 2% 0.5%
100% 18.0%
10 Yr. Time Frame
3.5 4 4.5 5
4.2% 5.6% 6.8% 8.0%

6.5% 7.9% 9.2% 10.4%
8.8% 10.3% 11.6% 12.8%
11.1% 12.6% 14.0% 15.2%
13.5% 15.0% 16.3% 17.6%
14.8% 16.4% 17.8% 19.0%
15.8% 17.3% 18.7% 20.0%
16.7% 18.3% 19.7% 20.9%
5 Yr. 4 Yr. 3 Yr.

5 Yr CAGR 5 Yr CAGR Return on Retention Diffential Diffential Diffential Sales / Total Total Assets /
Net Profit Market Cap Opening NW Ratio Profit by NW Profit by NW Profit by NW NP / Sales Assets NW
72.1% 20.1% 2.6 1.1
85.3% 77.7% 22.2% 2.1 1.1
70.2% 73.3% 22.3% 2.0 1.1
56.8% 72.7% 35.0% 21.5% 1.8 1.1
43.1% 47.9% 27.1% 23.8% 19.2% 1.6 1.1
28.8% 17.7% 44.9% 72.0% 33.7% 32.6% 29.3% 23.1% 1.6 1.0
25.0% 22.2% 49.4% 69.8% 33.1% 31.2% 33.1% 23.9% 1.5 1.0
19.8% 13.0% 42.7% 68.0% 30.1% 31.2% 37.2% 21.1% 1.6 1.0
22.6% 35.5% 47.2% 69.1% 33.7% 37.7% 34.3% 22.1% 1.6 1.0
29.5% 45.0% 49.7% 67.3% 41.4% 39.5% 40.7% 23.4% 1.6 1.0
23.2% 27.2% 40.4% 22.1% 39.8% 41.1% 44.6% 21.0% 1.8 1.1
21.8% 48.0% 64.7% 37.2% 38.7% 38.7% 22.4% 1.6 1.0
46.7% 62.0% 21.8% 1.8

VALUATIONS
Mcap / Net
ROA NP / NW Profit Mcap / Sales Mcap / NW EV / Sales Cash Yield
51.5% 56.8% 33.0 6.6 18.7 6.7 2.6%
46.9% 49.5% 28.7 6.4 14.2 6.4 2.2%
43.7% 47.6% 26.7 5.9 12.7 6.0 2.0%
38.4% 41.2% 16.7 3.6 6.9 3.6 3.1%
31.5% 33.7% 14.5 2.8 4.9 2.8 5.6%
36.8% 38.1% 21.0 4.9 8.0 4.9 4.3%
36.1% 37.2% 25.6 6.1 9.5 6.1 2.1%
33.7% 35.3% 19.9 4.2 7.0 4.2 2.4%
34.4% 36.1% 27.5 6.1 9.9 6.1 2.3%
37.2% 39.0% 25.6 6.0 10.0 6.0 2.4%
37.2% 39.2% 24.7 5.2 9.7 5.2 3.4%
36.0% 37.2% 20.3 4.5 7.5 4.6
38.3% 23.7 5.2 9.9 5.2

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Dabur HDFC HDFC Bank

NW ps Value NW ps Value NW ps Value

2015 19 143 286 1288 244 975

2016 23 173 331 1491 283 1131

2017 28 210 383 1726 328 1312

2018 34 254 444 1997 381 1522

2019 41 307 514 2312 441 1766

2020 50 372 595 2676 512 2048

2021 60 450 688 3098 594 2376

2022 73 544 797 3586 689 2756

2023 88 658 922 4150 799 3197

2024 106 796 1068 4804 927 3709

2025 128 964 1236 5561 1076 4302

MP @ 2025 964 5561 4302

CMP 247 1120 1026

Dabur HDFC HDFC Bank

ROA 2018 57 #REF!

Retention Ratio ~ 50%

Enterprise Net Cash Flow

5 Yr. Time Frame

10 Yr. Time Frame

58.5% 6.3% 16.9% 10.8%

3 Yr. Diffential Sales / Total Total Assets / Mcap / Net

11.4% 2.3 25.5% 26.9% 44.3 4.2 13.5

EV / EBI EV / Sales Cash Yield Date Close 50d EMA

` Adj. NW EPS ` Adj. NW

29.6 5.0 23.8% 6.3

2.8% 18.6% 89.4% 8.7%

5 Yr. Time Frame

Cost of Changes in Employee

Retention Ratio ~ 60%

5 Yr. Time Frame

10 Yr. Time Frame

Net Cash Flow Manufact. &

47.9% 26.4% 18.1% 14.3%

13.2% 13.8% 15.0%

36.1% 60.7% 13.1% 2.5

Total Assets / Mcap / Net

30.0% 34.9% 38.2 4.7 14.0 33.6 4.8

Revenue Employee Premium

` Adj. NW EPS NW ps EPS

Revenue Employee Premium

Consolidated Income - Insurance Business

Mcap / NW Multiple 2.5 3 3.5

10 Yr. Time Frame

4 4.5 5 Probabilities Weighted

14.3% 15.7% 16.9%

23.3% 7.6 2.5% 19.1% 73.2%

Adj. NW EPS ` Adj. NW

25.2 4.3 21.4% 11.8

1.4% 16.3% 80.2% 8.3% 30.2% 31.3%

5 Yr. Time Frame

Adj. NW EPS ` Adj. NW EPS

Implied Dividend Yld. 2.6%

Capital Free Cash Net Cash

33.5% 23.5% 1.0

70.0% 25.0% 45.0%

23.0% 1.1 26.0% 24.1 5.6 6.9

Adj. NW EPS Adj. NW EPS

15.6 2.7 21.0%

Retention Ratio ~ 80%

1.3% 16.4% 83.4% 8.6%

Mcap / NW Multiple 1 1.5 2 2.5

of Adj. NW wrt ICICI Scale of B/S wrt ICICI ROA