College

 of  Veterinary/  Kirkuk  University                                                                                                                                                                                                Lecture  Fifth  -­‐  Theory

Assistant  lecture:  Ahmed  S.  Shaker                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
Elementary  probability  theory
March  23,  2016

The Probability:
The probability of a particular outcome is the proportion of times that outcome would occur in a long
run of repeated observations.
For example: There is high probability that the percent of failed pupils is 25%, it means for each 100
pupils 25 of them will be failed, and for 60 pupils 15 of them will be failed. Mathematically,
probability is:

𝑃 = 𝑚/𝑛

Where: m = is the number of favorable trials

n = is the total number of trials.

1. Rules about Probabilities of simple events:

Let E1, E2, … , Ek be the set of all possible simple events in some sample space of simple events.
Then we have:
a. The probability of any simple event occurring must be between 0 and 1 inclusively:
0 ≤ P(Ei) ≤ 1 where: i= 1, 2, 3, … , k
b. The sum of probabilities of all simple events is equal to 1:
𝑃 𝐸! = 1

Example (1):
Assume an experiment consists of one throw of a die. All possible results are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Each
of these possible results is a simple event. The probability of each of these events is 1/6, i.e., P(E1) =
P(E2) = P(E3) = P(E4) = P(E5) = P(E6) = 1/6. This can be shown in a table:
Observation Event (Ei) P(Ei)
1 E1 P(E1) = 1/6
2 E2 P(E2) = 1/6
3 E3 P(E3) = 1/6
4 E4 P(E4) = 1/6
5 E5 P(E5) = 1/6
6 E6 P(E6) = 1/6
Total = Σ=1

1
College  of  Veterinary/  Kirkuk  University                                                                                                                                                                                                Lecture  Fifth  -­‐  Theory
Assistant  lecture:  Ahmed  S.  Shaker                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
Elementary  probability  theory
March  23,  2016

2. Counting Rules:
P= number of favorable trials/ total number of trials.

2.1. Multiplicative Rules:

Consider r sets of elements of size n1, n2, …, nr.
If one element is randomly chosen from each set, then the total number of different results
is: n1, n2, n3, …, nk.
Example (2): Consider three pens with animals marked as follow:
Pen 1: 1, 2, 3
Pen 2: A, B, C
Pen 3: x, y
The number of animals per pen are n1=3, n2=3, n3=2.
The possible triplets with one animal taken from each pen are:
1Ax, 1Ay, 1Bx, 1By, 1Cx, 1Cy
2Ax, 2Ay, 2Bx, 2By, 2Cx, 2Cy
3Ax, 3Ay, 3Bx, 3By, 3Cx, 3Cy
The number of possible triplets is : 3*3*2=18
2.2. N factorial: nǃ= n(n-1)(n-2)….(1)
2.3. Permutation:
𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !

from a set of n elements, the number of ways those n elements can be rearranged, i.e., put
in different orders, is the permutations of n elements:
Example (3): In how many ways can three animals x, y and z, be arranged in pairs (2) such that the
order in the pairs is important (xz is different than zx) (xz ǂ zx)
nPr = nǃ / (n-r)ǃ = 3ǃ / (3-2)ǃ = 3*2*1/ 1 = 6
The six possible pairs are : xy, xz, yx, yz, zx, zy

2
College  of  Veterinary/  Kirkuk  University                                                                                                                                                                                                Lecture  Fifth  -­‐  Theory
Assistant  lecture:  Ahmed  S.  Shaker                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
Elementary  probability  theory
March  23,  2016

2.4. Combinations:
From a set of n elements, the number of ways those n elements can be taken r at a time
regardless of order (xz is not different than zx) (xz = zx),

𝑛 𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = =
𝑟 𝑟!× 𝑛 − 𝑟 !

Example (4): In how many ways can three animals x, y and z, be arranged in pairs (2) such that the
order in the pairs is not important (xz = zx)

3 3!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = 3𝐶2 = =
2 2!× 3 − 2 !

3×2×1
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =  3𝐶2 =
2×1 1

∴ 𝑛𝐶𝑟 = 3

𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒  𝑎𝑟𝑒  𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑒  𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒  𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑟𝑠  𝑎𝑟𝑒 ∶ 𝑥𝑦, 𝑥𝑧, 𝑧𝑦

3. Compound Events:
A compound event is an event composed of two or more events. Consider two events E1 and
E2. The compound event such that both events E1 and E2 occur is called the intersection of the
events, denoted by E1 ∩ E2. The compound event such that either event E1 or event E2 occurs is
called the union of events, denoted by E1 ∩ E2. The probability of an intersection is P(E1 ∩ E2)
and the probability of union is P(E1 U E2). Also:
P(E1 U E2) = P(E1) + P(E2) - P(E1 ∩ E2).
The complement of an event E1 is the event that E1 does not occur, and it is denoted by E1c.
The probability of a complement is:
P(E1 c) = 1 - P(E1),
e.g. Let the event E1 be such that the results of a throw of a die is an even number. Let the event
E2 be such that the number is greater than 3.

3
College  of  Veterinary/  Kirkuk  University                                                                                                                                                                                                Lecture  Fifth  -­‐  Theory
Assistant  lecture:  Ahmed  S.  Shaker                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
Elementary  probability  theory
March  23,  2016

The event E1 is the set: (2, 4, 6)

The event E2 is the set: (4, 5, 6)

The intersection E1 and E2 is an event such that the result is an even number and that are greater
than 3 at the same time. It is the set:
(E1 ∩ E2) = (4, 6) with the probability:
P(E1 ∩ E2) = P(4) +P( 6) = 2/6, because the probability of an even is the sum of probabilities of
this simple events that make up the set.

The union of the events E1 and E2 is an event such that the result is an even number or a number
greater than 3. The set will be:
(E1 U E2) = (2, 4, 5, 6) with the probability:
P(E1 U E2) = P(2) +P(4) +P(5) +P(6) = 4/6.

Figure 1. Represents the intersection and union of the events E1 and E2:

E1 E2

2 4 4 5
6 6

E1 ∩ E2
E1 U E2

A Conditional Probability: is the probability that an event will occur if some assumptions are
satisfied. In other words a conditional probability is a probability that an event E2 will occur if it is

4
College  of  Veterinary/  Kirkuk  University                                                                                                                                                                                                Lecture  Fifth  -­‐  Theory
Assistant  lecture:  Ahmed  S.  Shaker                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
Elementary  probability  theory
March  23,  2016

known that an event E1 has already occurred. The conditional probability of E2 given E1 (E2/E1) is
calculated by using the formula:

P(E2/E1) = P(E1 ∩ E2) / P(E1)

Note: P(E1) > 0
Multiplicative law:
Events can be dependent or independent. If events E1 and E2 are independent then:
P(E2/E1) = P(E2) and P(E1/E2) = P(E1)
a. If independent, the probability of E2 does not depend on the probability of E1. Also, the
probability that both events occur is equal to the product of each probability:
P(E1*E2) = P(E1) x P(E2).
b. If the two events are dependent, for example, the probability of the occurrence of event E2
depends on the occurrence of event E1, then:
P(E1*E2) = P(E1) x P(E2/E1).
e.g. Independent events: We throw a die two times, what will be the probability of obtaining two sixes?
We rank the first throw as event E1 and the second as event E2. We look for the probability
P(E1.E2).
P(E1) = 1/6 and P(E2) = 1/6, and the events were independent, then:
P(E1.E2) = P(E1) x P(E2) = 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36

e.g. Dependent events: From a deck of 52 playing cards, we draw two cards. What will be the
probability of drawing two cards, both are aces (1)? Note that there are four aces in a deck, then:

P(E1.E2) = P(E1) x P(E2/E1) = (4/52) x (3/51) = 1/221

The probability of drawing two aces = 1/221.