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China's Proposed Maritime Silk Road - Challenges
China's Proposed Maritime Silk Road - Challenges
The aim of this article is to explore the challenges and opportunities of the
21st Century Maritime Silk Road – presumably a gigantic economic project
launched by China – for better connectivity and economic cooperation in
Asia. The article examines the variables that may either limit or bolster its
implementation. The project, once implemented, is likely to give rise to both
economic and strategic upshots. Economically, it is likely to be win–win for
both China and other powers in Asia who are willing to participate. On the
other hand, it may get trapped because of the presence of geopolitical issues
and great powers rivalry, specifically in the Bay of Bengal region. The arti-
cle, in the final analysis, attempts to provide certain policy prescriptions,
mainly for China, for maximum optimization.
Introduction
China presumably would like to occupy a central place on the world stage –
despite the fact that it is committed to going slow and hiding its brilliance. Of late,
however, there has seemingly been a paradigm shift as its assertiveness has
become visible, at least in the economic field. Friedberg’s comments seem con-
vincing: “China … [is] an essentially rational actor that has chosen on the basis
of strategic calculations to become more assertive.”1 It is the change in relative
power that is probably triggering the process. While China’s military moderniza-
tion is, in a way, going through a kind of military revolution, its economic diplo-
macy or cooperation is moving at an even faster pace.
1. Aaron L. Friedberg, “The sources of Chinese Conduct: Explaining Beijing’s Assertiveness,” The
Washington Quarterly, 37-4 (2014), p. 142.
297
298 / Pacific Focus
China has an oversupply of disposable funds that can be better utilized in over-
seas investments. Economic diplomacy is presumably directed to help ameliorate
the economic and social conditions of the countries in Southeast Asia, Central
Asia, and South Asia, and essentially their inter-connectivity. It is even stretched
to Africa and South America. The scope of this article is, however, confined to
Asia only with a special reference to the Bay of Bengal region.
Some say China is rising, and the United States is declining or in retreat –
somewhat similar to the situation after the Vietnam War. Young Deng is succinct:
“The Iraq War started to drag down U.S. power and image. Meanwhile, China and
other emerging economies continued robust growth and began to carry increasing
weight in global affairs.”2 This, however, may not be the whole truth.
There are still clear indications that the United States is putting forward its best
efforts to revitalize its military forces, especially in its Pacific Command area, and
is going around – especially to those countries surrounding China – to make allies,
friends, alignments, ententes and so on – both in the military and economic spec-
trum. The strategy assures “All Domain Access” which is gradually expanding its
network with allies and partners in a “global network of navies,” to secure stability
and maritime security.3 Safeguarding freedom of navigation and uninterrupted
commerce in the global commons seemingly remains vital for the United States.
Given the high-political developments that emanate from both sides, this period
is called a period of transition. A period of transition is not merely a change of
power balance between two great powers but more importantly it is about a change
of relationship between the existing preponderant power and a potential contender
for future system leadership. Secondly, rising powers may not necessarily aspire to
such a role but China is visibly trying to play that role to modify the world order in
her ways.4 New polarizations or a leadership race are thus taking place and giving
rise to tensions.
There are inexorable geopolitical moves that can be slowed down – maybe by
diplomacy or by creative or cooperative ideas, such as economic integration, phys-
ical and cultural connectivity – but are difficult to resolve altogether. On the face of
it, they carry potentials for conflict or a near-war situation. This is substantiated by
the fact that while China moves up militarily, the United States continues to main-
tain effective and credible sea control capabilities in different sea lines of control,
with particular emphasis on the East and South China seas, and at the throat – the
Malacca Strait – that connects the Pacific Ocean with the Indian. The possibility of
connecting the Pacific with the Indian Ocean brings to the fore the issue of the Bay
2. Yong Deng, “China: The Post-Responsible Power,” The Washington Quarterly, 37- 4 (2014), p. 123.
3. Geoffrey Till, “New US Maritime Strategy: Why It Matters?” RSIS Commentaries, No. 095 (21
April 2015), at <https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/CO15095.pdf> (searched
date: 9 October 2015).
4. Lai, David, “China’s Strategic Moves and Counter-Moves,” The US Army War College Quarterly
Parameters, 44 - 4 (Winter 2014-15), p. 17.
of Bengal region. The Bay is even comparable to the South China Sea as some
scholars tend to suggest.
However, China is yet to project itself in the Indian Ocean, where India is also a
major power. And India seemingly claims it is the net provider of security in the
Indian Ocean. It is discernible that strategic alliance or alignment among Japan,
India, South Korea, and Australia are tending to tilt the strategic balance that tends
to contain China. China has to, therefore, look for partners and resources – mostly
energy – in the region.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization may be called a case in point on which
China is putting a lot of emphasis. Pakistan is another case in point that may be
compared to the entente relation that exists between the United States and India.
Additionally, the leadership race and strategic compulsions – strategic stability is
also critical – are drawing our attention. Nevertheless, there are positive indications
also, where there may be a convergence of ideas for cooperation.
This quandary is the rationale as to why both the United States and China are
seemingly suffering from a policy of ambiguity. The United States’ policy of
rebalancing tends to send two messages: its military works as a deterrent when it
comes to the issues and flashpoints; and it tends to export Western values, such
as democracy, human rights, and rule of law to the Asian countries. Both presum-
ably work as credible deterrence to China. Now the dilemma is whether to go
strong with a rebalancing strategy or to find a way to collaborate with China to
maintain strategic stability.
On the other hand, China claims its rise is peaceful, which the Western world or
its allies are contesting. There are ambiguities in the term “Chinese dreams” – it is
difficult to decipher whether it is mainly a dream for a harmonious or prosperous
world or it is purely a race for leadership and strategic competition. China, again,
tends to go for multipolarity made up of distinctive poles of attraction in contrast to
a unipolar or United States-dominated world. It is a political idea that creates an
opportunity for Eurasia to emerge. Interestingly, the interests of the two potential
builders of Eurasia – China and Russia – seem to have converged.5
China is determined to fill the void, so it has floated the idea of the Maritime Silk
Road (MSR). A US strategist comments on China’s “One Belt, One Road” or
MSR strategy as follows: “If China wants to create a parallel system in Eurasia
and convince others that its system beats America’s, it could then demand from
its partners … by asking them to restrict or refuse US access to their seaports
and that is where the direct security and military implications come in.”6
Cooperative Strategy
Asia is broadly rising as a continent. As a matter of fact, four of the largest econ-
omies of the world today – China, Japan, India, and South Korea – are located in
Asia. But are they converging for a synchronized common good? Both Japan and
7. Seung-Ho Joo, “Russia’s Policy on Nuclear Proliferation and National Unification on the Korean
Peninsula,” Pacific Focus, 29-2 (August 2014), pp. 167-187.
China have historical animosities, to block convergence, that tend to give rise to
intermittent tensions in the region. But one should look for areas where the stake-
holders can cooperate or where there is common ground to meet and act, and
thereby make their mark in history when the future generation may take pride in
the fact that their forefathers created a space for them where they remain better
integrated and more prosperous. I am fully aware of the consequences of power-
politics, strategic alliances and alignments, and ententes that have emerged during
the last few decades. This even encompasses areas like nuclear cooperation –
euphemistically called civilian mainly implying energy support – but in reality
contributing to military collaboration.8
Power-politics is intrinsic to inter-state relations. That’s fine. But certain initia-
tives that propose to develop economic corridors, zones and areas, to connect peo-
ple and cultures, and to help each other in times of crisis may rightfully deserve our
attention and consideration. We have to be creative to derive the best advantage
from it for the best good of the maximum number of people, especially in Asia,
which is greatly poverty-stricken and often-times battered by natural and man-
made disasters.
Asia is also the epicenter of thousands of boat-people – homeless refugees –
moving from post to pillar for survival. About 30 percent of people in Asia live
below the poverty line. There are many smaller countries in Asia that are almost
perennially plagued by national integration and state-building problems. There
are serious economic and social inequalities between the peoples of the countries
concerned and between the sub-regions in the wider Asia–Pacific. To forge better
understanding and egalitarianism, a cooperative strategy – where seemingly no
strings are attached – is ostensibly the way forward. For Asia, what else can be a
better strategy than a cooperative?
8. For details see Mohd Aminul Karim, “Strategic Visions of China and the United States in South
Asia and Beyond,” Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 24-2 (June 2012), pp. 175-191.
9. Tommy Koh, “21st Century Maritime Silk Road,” The Straits Times (4 August 2015), at <http://
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/21st-century-maritime-silk-road> (searched date: 9 October 2015).
building the 21st Century MSR during his address to the Parliament of Indonesia.
The 21st Century MSR – seen as a complement to various overland Silk Roads,
such as those to Nepal, Pakistan, Myanmar, India, Central Asia, and even up to
Germany – would provide better connectivity in different modes and dimensions.
Thus said, the project is “grandiose, potentially involving an area that covers 55
percent of world GNP, 70 percent of global population, and 75 percent of known
energy reserves.”10 Put together, it is called “One Belt, One Road.” Another
source estimates that the Belt and Road, put together, covers 4.4 billion people
and $2.1 trillion gross production, which makes it 63 percent of the world popula-
tion and 29 percent of world GDP.11 The MSR involves more than 20 countries
and regions. China has 14 maritime and eight land-based neighbors. The MSR is
likely to pass from the South China Sea, through the Strait of Malacca, across
the Indian Ocean to East Africa, and from these through the Red Sea into the Med-
iterranean. The other route of the Road is to the South Pacific.
“The MSR is expected to boost China’s cooperation with the countries along the
road, improve mutual trust and create a win-win situation. It can also be a new plat-
form and mechanism of maritime security. The MSR is not just a road for China,
but for the whole of Asia-Africa. It may also be called ‘Civilizational Road’, ‘Eco-
nomic and Trade Road,’ and ‘Tourism Road’ of the Asian countries. China needs
to connect with peoples of the Asia-African countries of the West Pacific and the
Indian Ocean so as to develop industrial chain, guarantee maritime security pas-
sage, and deal with maritime non-traditional security.”12
The project is conceived to enhance presumably five connections, such as trade,
infrastructure, investment, capital and people. In the long run, it is likely to create a
community with shared interests, destiny, and responsibilities. It can, therefore, be
surmised that the MSR is basically an economic initiative, at least to start with.
China’s development banks recently received over $60bn to help fund the projects
of the Belt and the Road. China sees it fit to divert more of its $4 trillion foreign
currency reserve for the projects.13 It is probable that China may get more return
on its investment in these projects than investing in US treasury or security bonds.
10. François Godement, “ ‘One Belt, One Road’: China’s Great Leap Outward,” China Analysis, European
Council on Foreign Relations (June 2015), at <http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/China_analysis_belt_road.pdf>
(searched date: 17 July 2015).
11. Shuaihua Wallace Cheng, “China’s New Silk Road: Implications for the US,” YaleGlobal OnLine (28
May 2015), at <http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/china’s-new-silk-road-implications-us> (searched date:
9 October 2015).
12. Experts from the Concept Paper for the Conference on “21st Century Maritime Silk Road and
Strategic Interaction within the Asian–African Community,” Organized by China Foreign Affairs
University, Beijing on 11 April 2015. The author presented a paper and moderated one of the
sessions.
13. George Magnus, “China, The New Silk Road, Loud Thunder and Small Raindrops” (15 May 2015), at
<http://www.georgemagnus.com/china-the-new-silk-road-loud-thuder-and-small-raindrops/> (searched
date: 2 September 2015).
The objectives of the MSR are candidly reflected in a Chinese official document
as well:
Investment and trade cooperation is a major task in building the Belt and Road … It is aimed at
promoting free flow of economic factors, highly efficient allocation of resources and deep-inte-
gration of markets; encouraging the countries along the Belt and Road to achieve policy coordi-
nation and carry out broader and more in-depth regional cooperation of higher standards; and
jointly creating an open, inclusive and balanced regional economic cooperation architecture that
benefits all. Jointly building the Belt and Road is in the interests of the world community … The
development of Belt and Road should mainly be conducted through policy communication and
objective coordination. It is a pluralistic and open process of cooperation that can be highly flex-
ible, and does not seek conformity.14
Challenges
Inevitability of High-politics?
High-politics is inevitable but it may not always be the desirable strategy. A case
in point is the Warsaw Pact. Established at the behest of the Soviet Union with the
onset of the Cold War, the Pact was presumably meant to confront NATO, a
Western bloc security organization. Europe was divided in two distinct geopoliti-
cal blocs, each spearheaded by the then so-called super-powers. So a kind of mu-
tual deterrence was created. It was definitely not a healthy state. But this deterrence
was, in a way, effective in containing a hot-war flaring-up, although hundreds of
tanks and bombers were positioned eyeball-to-eyeball. The United States applied
its much-talked-about containment strategy. Economically, the Soviet Union could
not sustain it so it collapsed from within.
14. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, “Vi-
sion and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk
Road,” National Development and Reform Commission (Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry
of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China: Beijing, March 2015, March 2015).
15. Gurpreet Khurana, “Why is India so Coy about China’s Maritime Silk-Road?” The Wire (9 June
2015), at <http://thewire.in/2015/06/09/why-is-india-so-coy-about-chinas-maritime-silk-road-3522/>
(searched date: 9 October 2015).
Now the case of China may be seen from a different perspective, although China
is, otherwise, an astute actor to play power-politics pretty well in international re-
lations. Taking cue from the above statement, we can raise a question: should the
US policy of rebalancing do the same tricks for China? It is said that China is a
civilization pretending – as Lucian Pye euphemistically suggested – to be a state.
A civilization is rather a culturally more integrated being rather than a state-in-
making. Excluding its outlying areas, such as in Tibet and Xinjiang province,
China is a compact state – seemingly very proud of its nationalism. Nevertheless,
Chinese chauvinistic Han nationalism may also be construed as its own in-house
threat. Nationalism of the countries in Northeast Asia is oftentimes called populist
nationalism. And that carries the potential for conflict.
Nevertheless, the Soviet Union was a somewhat artificially constructed state. Its
nation-building was rather fragile. Soviets showed imperialistic tendencies and
manifestations from the days of the Tsars. China may not be seen in the same con-
text, and in objectives formulation, even though it gets involved in skirmishes over
certain disputed territories in both the East and South China Seas. As indicated,
inter-state and domestic politics of a country may thwart such grandiose projects,
however altruistic its objectives may be.
Geo-economics
Having said so, China is far behind the United States in terms of technology, so-
phistication, innovation, and also in terms of soft power. But in terms of economic
wealth – that is, continued growth of its GDP – China has really done marvels.
This component of power may be categorized as both soft and hard power. Now
China has a big dilemma as to how to utilize this huge economic power both in
terms of soft and hard power. This particular variable is greatly impacting its asser-
tiveness. What is clearly discernible is that it is going all-out to utilize this compo-
nent of power to beef up its military hard power as mentioned. So a balanced blend
of soft and hard powers – some call it smart power – may be a right approach. But
can China create the right mix? Is its purported Silk Road/MSR concept going to
lead in that direction?
It is well known that China imports 80% of its crude oil and 50% of its natural
gas, and these resources pass through the Strait of Malacca. These assortments of
energy are so critical for its in-house development that China has no choice but to
look for alternative options to ensure uninterrupted supply of energy. So building
deep seaports in Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan – just to mention a
few relevant cases – are the alternative facilities for ensuring supply of energy.
This, in turn, also benefits relatively smaller economies in its periphery. This
may seemingly turn out to be a win–win outcome at least on an economic count
where geopolitics is also tangled. It also helps China to invest its substantial for-
eign currency reserves and obviously its returns on investments should also be sub-
stantial, as mentioned.
© 2015 Center for International Studies, Inha University
China’s Proposed Maritime Silk Road / 305
But the big question remains: will high-politics allow China to fully realize such
a lofty objective? Perhaps not. Some scholars dub it as “China’s Marshall Plan.”
But the irony is such that the project may get derailed by “ham-fisted great power
diplomacy, inattention to political risks, or excessive central planning.”16
Marshall Plan clearly demarcated Europe into two halves; in the case of Asia, it
is a mixed menu where it is difficult to draw a clear geopolitical demarcation line,
and also where the actors suffer from ambiguities, economic inequalities, and
indecisions.
One may also argue that China has floated the idea ostensibly as a counter-move
to the US-sponsored strategic economic measures called the Trans-Pacific Partner-
ship (TPP) meant for the wider Pacific region where China’s entry is probably not
being considered. This may be debatable, but this is one way to look at it when
high-politics abounds in this part of the world. China apprehends barriers to trade,
investment and integration by pre-conditions set by the TPP agreement in the
making.
The TPP is a specialized framework – still being branded and classified – that
covers wider economic issues and mostly embraces countries surrounding China.
For obvious reasons, China has to be wary of its operation, which may put a
damper on its economic agenda. Added to this, days of collaboration between
the United States and China – such as economic interdependence, some call it
Chimerica – is seemingly being replaced by competition. Complementarities of
the US and Chinese economies are on decline. More and more US giants may out-
source their production – outside China – in countries such as India, Indonesia, and
Vietnam. This may further contribute to Chimerica’s decline.17
Given such milieu, as Kennedy and Parker point out, China emphasizes sover-
eignty and non-intervention, and adherence to high standards and international
norms, and the decisive role of the market in driving the initiative.18 This is sus-
pect, as being divorced from geopolitics, market forces, on their own, are not al-
ways reliable, as demonstrated in the recent financial crisis in the Western world.
Moreover, China’s economic advantages along the MSR may not be a monopoly,
as ASEAN countries produce the same products as China. So competitiveness may
be intense. Competitiveness may, however, also be seen as an opportunity. Fur-
thermore, China’s reliance on sea-lanes, when it comes to the MSR, may be
blocked during the crunch time by a single power or a combination of powers, es-
pecially in the Strait of Malacca, which is a daunting challenge. In the longer term,
there is likelihood of both China and the United States concentrating on their
Opportunities
Chinese investment may benefit the Silk Road economies that are struggling or
emerging. Overall, China stands to gain from such integration, particularly from an
economically dynamic Asia–Pacific.20
China’s opportunities are well elucidated by another official Chinese document:
Now to play well these objectives in terms of combination of hard and soft pow-
ers, China, seemingly, is mulling over extensive economic collaboration, invest-
ments, creating economic zones, free-trade zones and so on. It has made
considerable progress in collaborating with ASEAN’s connectivity projects. As a
matter of fact, China’s MSR is a potential boost and catalyst for infrastructure de-
velopment in the ASEAN region. It fits well into ASEAN’s own connectivity and
integration strategies. Bilateral trade between ASEAN and China grew fivefold
from $78bn in 2003 to $443.6bn in 2013.22 A phenomenal rise, indeed.
President Xi is more committed to a longer-term maritime strategy – as land Silk
Roads are also linked – than his predecessors. He may have the ambition to reach
the stature of Mao and Deng, and imperceptibly he may have to keep his home-
front engaged and satisfied. Over and above the connectivity, the project may also
encapsulate maritime diplomacy, maritime consultancy, law enforcement in mari-
time regime, and harnessing maritime economy. Maritime cooperation may be one
of the hallmarks of China–ASEAN maritime cooperation. This may contribute to
19. Shivshankar Menon, “Four Big Foreign Policy Challenges that Modi Needs a Framework to Deal
With,” The Wire (6 July 2015), at <http://thewire.in/2015/07/06/four-big-foreign-policy-challenges-
that-modi-needs-a-framework-to-deal-with-5566/> (searched date: 9 October 2015).
20. Michael Spence, “China’s International Growth Agenda” (17 June 2015), at <http://www.
project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-international-growth-agenda-by-michael-spence-2015-06>
(searched date: 16 July 2015).
21. Liu Cigui, “Reflections on Maritime Partnership: Building the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road,”
China Institute of International Studies (15 September 2014), at <http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/
2014-09/15/content_7231376.htm> (searched date: 16 July 2015).
22. “21st Century Maritime Silk Road to Benefit ASEAN: Experts,” The Philippine Star (13 December
2014).
23. Tan Qingsheng, “China-ASEAN Maritime Cooperation,” keynote speech at the International
Conference on Crisis Management and Maritime Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific, China Institute
of International Studies, Beijing (25 November 2014). The author participated in the Panel
Discussion.
24. Xu Bu, “Maritime Silk Road can Bridge China-ASEAN Cooperation,” Jakarta Post (5 August
2015), at <http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/08/05/maritime-silk-road-can-bridge-china-
asean-cooperation.html> (searched date: 9 October 2015).
25. Angela Stanzel, “China’s Silk Road to Nowhere?” European Council on Foreign Relations
(13 May 2015), at <http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_chinas_silk_road_to_nowhere3025>
(searched date: 9 October 2015).
26. Ghulam Ali, “China’s Strategic Interests in Pakistan’s Port of Gwadar,” East Asia Forum (24
March 2013), at <http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/03/24/chinas-strategic-interests-in-pakistans-
port-at-gwadar/> (searched date: 9 October 2015).
27. Pradumna B. Rana and Wai-Mun Chia, “The Revival of the Silk Roads (Land Connectivity) in
Asia,” RSIS Working Paper No. 274 (12 May 2014).
Establishment of the $40bn Silk Road Infrastructure Fund – covering both the
Road and the Belt – shows a silver lining for the economic development of the area
in the backdrop of Russian economic recession and a gloomy global economic out-
look.28 The Fund’s Chief Executive gives a hint on the exit strategy of the Fund.
When long-term infrastructure projects are completed, the methods that may be
used are: transfer to the governments, or resort to selling back to the main business,
listing or share transfers.29 Thus said, the land-corridors presumably may work as
maritime bridgeheads and overcome the tyranny of geography, especially China’s
hinterland areas, which are less developed than its eastern coast.
Details of the MSR are yet to unfold but indications reveal it may have a system –
or system of systems – of linked roads, infrastructure projects, economic zones,
tap market potential, promoting investment and consumption, creating demands
and job opportunities, and so on in Southeast Asia and in the northern Indian
Ocean. This may be called the first phase. This may also imply development of
new production and distribution chains in the region. Countries such as the
Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh have agreed in principle to be part of the
project but India has opted out of the project presumably for geopolitical reasons.
India has a stronger demeanor now, especially since the second visit of US
President Barack Obama to India in 2014.
Nevertheless and as mentioned, China has a substantial reserve of currency to
the tune of $4 trillion. The economy of the Soviet Union was half the size of the
United States’ during the Cold War. On the other hand, China’s economy today
is about to overtake that of the United States at least in purchasing power parity
terms. So the possibility of China collapsing economically, as the Soviet Union
did during the Cold War, under the strain of this mega project is remote.
China has already established the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) –
China has put $50bn for the Bank, and for the Silk Road another $40bn – to fund
this mega-project. The largest and third largest economies of the world – the United
States and Japan, respectively – did not apply for AIIB membership, even though
more than 60 other countries, such as Germany, the UK, France, and Brazil, are
members. The global economy today is basically a network that connects flows
of goods, services, people, capital, and, probably more importantly, information.
The AIIB tends to develop a multinational development strategy. Its benefit may
outweigh the risks, and it is understandably open to everyone, especially in Asia.
After all, trade and investment are likely to benefit all, not only China. China can
help its neighbors to defend themselves against volatile capital flows as well.30
28. Zhang Hongzhou and Arthur Guschin, “Chain’s Silk Road Economic Belt: Geopolitical Chal-
lenges in Central Asia,” RSIS Commentaries (24 April 2015), at <https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/
uploads/2015/04/CO15099.pdf> (searched date: 9 October 2015).
29. “China’s Silk Road Fund Eyes Listings among Exit Strategies: CEO,” The Business Times (27
June 2015), at <http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/chinas-silk-road-fund-
eyes-listings-among-exit-strategies-ceo> (searched date: 3 September 2015).
30. Michael Spence, op. cit.
It is likely to promote greater financial integration and use of the renminbi by for-
eign countries. It can reasonably be assumed that China has enough good will
and economic vitality to take the project forward. And the developing countries
in the neighborhood are most likely to benefit from the project as long as geopolitics
does not hamper its operation.
31. Vijay Sakhuja, “Blue Economy: China Explores Bay of Bengal Partnership” (29 July 2015), at
<http://www.defstrat.com/exec/frmArticleDetails.aspx?DID=555> (searched date: 9 October 2015).
32. Vijay Sakhuja, “Indian Ocean: Modi on a Maritime Pilgrimage” (2 March 2015), at <http://www.
ipcs.org/article/india/indian-ocean-modi-on-a-maritime-pilgrimage-4844.html> (2 March 2015).
of military presence in the Indian Ocean, and that Sri Lanka may contribute to that
effort.33
On the other hand, in March 2015, India announced the establishment of a new
security arrangement among India and the island states of Sri Lanka, the Maldives
and the Seychelles. It also foresees the possibility of expansion to include the Bay
of Bengal, or a similar arrangement that could be replicated with other littoral
states in the Bay.34 Details on the Bay of Bengal are given in later paragraphs.
What is interesting and intriguing – maybe to the Indians or the Americans – is that
China is seeking port access agreements with the countries in the Bay or Indian
Ocean region. In fact, it has already done so with three of the ports of Malaysia
along the Strait of Malacca.
Such moves or intent trigger India’s apprehension about Chinese military objec-
tives seemingly hidden under such projects. India seemingly considers the ports of
Gwador, Chiattagong, Sittwe and Hambantoata as military facilities built under the
disguise of civilian port facilities. The proposed Kra canal project in Thailand,
connecting the Gulf of Thailand and the Bay of Bengal, and Iran’s invitation to
China to help develop the Jask Port, overlooking the Arabian Sea are the other
cases in point. There is an apprehension that Jask could also be used as a forward
support facility for the PLA Navy in the event of hostilities in the Persian Gulf or
the Indian Ocean.35
The Pakistan and Iranian navies are also present in the southwestern part of the
ocean. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was active in the Indian Ocean. The
Russian navy may even make a comeback in the near future in both the Indian and
Pacific Oceans as it is already operating in the Mediterranean after a long hiatus.
The 2009 Peace Mission Exercise was conducted in the Gulf of Aden in the Indian
Ocean where the navies of China and Russia conducted anti-piracy drills.
Such activities are seemingly flowing out from certain definite policies and stra-
tegic objectives. There are policies – such as the String-of-Pearls Policy by China
and Counter-String-of-Pearls Policy by India – in the Indian Ocean. Indians may
view the MSR project as another version of the Chinese String-of-Pearls Policy.
China is building strategic ports in different countries of the Indian Ocean while
India, as a counter-measure, is also building forward naval bases in its offshore
islands in the Indian Ocean and making efforts to elbow out China from the stra-
tegic ports as mentioned. India has already made counter-moves in the Maldives,
33. David Brewster, “The Bay of Bengal: The Maritime Silk Route and China’s Naval Ambitions,”
The Diplomat (14 December 2014), at <http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/the-bay-of-bengal-the-mar-
itime-silk-route-and-chinas-naval-ambitions/> (searched date: 9 October 2015).
34. David Brewster, “The Bay of Bengal: A New Locus for Strategic Competition in Asia,” Asia Pa-
cific Bulletin, East-West Center (15 May 2014), at <http://www.eastwestcenter.org/sites/default/files/
private/apb263_0.pdf> (searched date: 9 October 2015).
35. Vijay Sakhuja, “China’s ‘Infrastructure Diplomacy’ Alive and Well,” Nikkei Asian Review
(4 March 2015), at <http://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Perspectives/China-s-infrastructure-diplomacy-
alive-and-well> (searched date: 9 October 2015).
the Seychelles, and Sri Lanka as mentioned. The Bay is the next frontier in all
probability. China has already made substantial investments in constructing ports
in some of these countries. So China’s stakes are extremely high at this point in
time. As a matter of fact, a kind of Cold War is already on in the Indian Ocean.
39. Mohammad Humayun Kabir and Amamah Ahmad, “The Bay of Bengal: Next Theatre for Stra-
tegic Power Play in Asia,” Croatian International Relations Review, 21-72 (2015), pp. 199–238.
40. K. Yhome, “The Geopolitics of New Energy Route,” East Asia Forum (19 June 2013), at <http://
www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/06/19/the-geopolitics-of-chinas-new-energy-route/> (searched date: 9
October 2015).
41. Sanjeev Miglani, “India, Japan, U.S. Plan Naval Exercises in Tightening of Ties in Indian
Ocean,” Reuters (22 July 2015), at <http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/22/us-india-military-
exercises-idUSKCN0PW1EB20150722> (searched date: 9 October 2015).
the economic lifelines for Bangladesh, especially for energy. Bangladesh’s stakes
are extremely high in case either of the SLOCs become blocked for any reason.
That said, there is a glitch over the construction of a deep seaport in Sonadia,
Chittagong in the south of Bangladesh, located close to the Andaman and Nicobar
Islands, Myanmar, and the Strait of Malacca. China is contemplating constructing
this port. This seaport is of critical importance to Bangladesh as two of its ports
will find it difficult to handle the burgeoning cargo after 2020. However, no deal,
so far, has been struck. Bangladesh approached China to fund the project. China
had sent the draft memorandum of understanding (MOU) and assigned its state-
owned company China Merchants Holding International Company for the con-
struction of the proposed seaport. China is focused and objective-based, as spelt
out in its official pronouncements:
“We should build a unified coordination mechanism for whole-course transportation, increase
connectivity of customs clearance, reloading and multi-modal transport between countries, and
gradually formulate compatible and standard transport rules, so as to realize international trans-
port facilitation. We should push forward infrastructure construction, build smooth land-water
transportation channels, and advance port cooperation; increase sea routes and the number of
voyages, and enhance information technology cooperation in maritime logistics.”42
42. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, op. cit.
2019. Bangladesh procures most of its defense equipment from China. For
Bangladesh, such procurement is cost-effective, as Western equipment is exorbi-
tantly expensive.
Bangladesh has also opened another source of military hardware procurement
from Russia. Over and above the criticality of the SLOCs, Russian entry into the
arms bazaar of Bangladesh may complicate the issues further as there is apparent
convergence between Russia and China, and competition between the United
States and China. Geopolitical rivalry that may brew in Central Asia because of
Chinese land-connectivity may not be applicable here. Here the polarization game
and context may be different. It is likely to be win–win for both Russia and China.
Nevertheless, the Bay of Bengal region may not be turned into another frontier
to play only geopolitics and not geo-economics. This is likely to draw smaller
states, such as Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Thailand, into the power-political game
of the giants.
1 All stakeholders should identify possible areas of cooperation. They should set
aside more critical issues from relatively less conflicting ones and address the
less conflict-prone areas first. A pragmatic approach has been to set aside the
India–China border demarcation issue for the time being. This has left space
for substantial boom in inter-country trade, and exploring the potential for con-
nectivity. This is true for the South China and East China Seas as well.
2 To start with, concerned parties should concentrate more on non-traditional se-
curity issues, such as climate change, disaster management, anti-piracy, terror-
ism, extremism, inter-faith dialogue and defense diplomacy. In fact, both the
United States and China have, in principle, agreed to work together on all such
issues. Such an approach is likely to contribute to better confidence building.
China may take forward the New Model of Major Power Relationship – agreed
between China and the United States in June 2013 – “on the basis of mutual
respect, co-operation, and win–win results for the benefits of the people of
the two countries, as well as the world.”43
3 All concerned parties should make an unambiguous declaration that freedom of
navigation and unimpeded commerce shall be ensured to all stake-holders in
the global commons. This may seemingly hold good for China and India in re-
spect of the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, respectively. Understand-
ably, China has recently provided such an assurance, officially. However, the
Indian Ocean case is not that sensitive, at least at the operational level. But
the stakeholders may remain wary of its spiraling.
43. Joseph Yu-shek Cheng, “Xi Jinping’s ‘A New Model of Major Power Relationship’,” paper pre-
sented in a seminar in the University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur (7 July 2015). Author participated in
the panel discussion.
44. Euikon Kim, “Korea’s Middle-Power Diplomacy in the 21st Century,” Pacific Focus, 30-1 (April
2015), pp. 1–9.
12 China should re-invigorate its soft-politics. It may need further refinement and
focused direction. Lofty objectives should be followed by tangible and useful
end-states for the common good of the greatest number of people.
13 India should settle its scores with its neighbors in order to better integrate itself
with the Asian/ South Asian regionalization process. “Prosper thy neighbor”
should be the hallmark of foreign relations of all Asian countries, especially
in South Asia. China and Japan have major roles to play. They should be per-
ceived, to make the point once again, more as development partners rather than
geopolitical actors.
14 China may critically evaluate the feasibility, security environment and long-
tern impacts even before launching or investing in a part of the project. This
strategic vision has to confront problems such as harsh terrain, in-house polit-
ical instability, in-house regional disparities, and geopolitical tensions, espe-
cially centering the flashpoints.
Concluding Remarks
China has embarked on a very ambitious project that may, seemingly, not have a
smooth sailing. It is likely to encounter difficulties from its geopolitical rivals who
have their own geopolitical and economic ambitions as well. Long-term objectives
coming from opposite camps are likely to come to odds with each other. The MSR
may be a win–sum game for China and others, even if it succeeds partially. China
has substantial reserves of currency that it wants to invest in Asia and beyond, and
get a good return on its investments. In the process, it wants to connect the impor-
tant maritime ports of Asia for better connectivity – connectivity may encompass a
wider canvas than merely physical – and economic cooperation. This may come at
odds with the strategic objectives with the United States and India, as mentioned.
But China is likely to make or has already made inroads in Pakistan, Myanmar,
Bangladesh, ASEAN countries, and Central Asia.
As a matter of fact, the objectives of China and the ASEAN countries are al-
ready converging on connectivity and economic cooperation. The United States
has floated the idea of the TPP to checkmate, in a way, China’s grand-strategic ob-
jectives. Details of both the strategies are yet to be made public. Nevertheless,
China has already started its implementation, may be in bits and pieces. But China
needs to further study the pros and cons of the project. And China has to craft its
modus operandi in a most subtle way in order to befriend its stakeholders, and not
project itself as an assertive power as the Western world tends to do. China also
needs to tackle both India and Japan by applying different modus operandi. Pop-
ulist nationalist fervor may need to be toned down.
Smaller economies in the region are likely to benefit immensely from China’s
investments. But it is a time-consuming and tedious process. Nevertheless, China
has already gone ahead with the Gwadar Economic Corridor with Pakistan. It has
already declared its investment to the tune $50bn to Pakistan, and of a similar
© 2015 Center for International Studies, Inha University
China’s Proposed Maritime Silk Road / 317
amount to Myanmar. China has made substantial inroads in Sri Lanka, which India
is contesting by making counter-moves. This is also true for the Maldives and the
Seychelles. A tug-of-war is on in respect to Bangladesh on the establishment of a
deep seaport in Chittagong in the Bay of Bengal. Power-politics has put this par-
ticular project in limbo.
The Bay of Bengal may turn out to be another frontier of great power rivalry. It
lies in the geostrategic junction of the Asia–Pacific. It is located close to the
Malacca Strait and the Indian Theater Command in the Andaman and Nicobar
Islands. Thus, powers like India, China and the United States tend to play their
cards as deftly as possible to get a toehold in the Bay. Nevertheless, the Bay’s re-
sources are critical for Bangladesh and Myanmar. Again, Bangladesh acutely
needs the deep seaport to keep its SLOCs functioning and thus sustain its econ-
omy, but it is apprehensive of major-power rivalry. It also needs huge investment,
which China, all by itself, seemingly, is capable of providing.
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