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Investor'S Guide: The New Zealand Food & Beverage Industry 2014
Investor'S Guide: The New Zealand Food & Beverage Industry 2014
Investor'S Guide: The New Zealand Food & Beverage Industry 2014
1
AN INVESTOR’S GUIDE TO THE NEW ZEALAND
FOOD & BEVERAGE INDUSTRY
Part of the New Zealand Government’s Food & Beverage Information Project; Feb 2014
www.foodandbeverage.govt.nz
iFAB 2014
Photo credit: New Zealand Story
The objective of this document is to make a strong, factual
case for investment in the New Zealand food and beverage
industry
www.foodandbeverage.govt.nz
iFAB 2014
New Zealand is well positioned to triple its food & beverage exports over the next 15 years; investors will
participate in this success
iFAB 2014
BIGGER
… than you think
iFAB 2014
New Zealand is a mid-sized country – similar in size to Italy and the UK – with lots of coastline but a relatively
small population; as a result it produces more food than it consumes and exports the surplus
Source: CIA World Fact Book; UN Popstat; Coriolis analysis iFAB 2014
Food & beverage exports are important to New Zealand and the country is a major F&B exporter
TOTAL NZ MERCHANDISE EXPORT VALUE TOTAL F&B EXPORT VALUE: NEW ZEALAND VS. PEERS
%; 2012 US$b; 2012
Netherlands $73
Germany $72
France $70
Spain $43
Belgium $39
Italy $39
United Kingdom $29
NZ F&B EXPORT VALUE BY MAJOR SEGMENT NZ F&B EXPORT VALUE BY MAJOR SEGMENT
US$b; 2012 US$b; non-inflation adjusted; 2002 vs. 2012 10y CAGR*
(02-12)
$21.0 TOTAL 11%
$3.0
2002 2012
*CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis iFAB 2014
New Zealand’s food & beverage exports are growing strongly and the country’s relative performance is
improving
LONG-TERM CAGR GROWTH IN FOOD & BEVERAGE EXPORT VALUE: NZ VS. SELECT PEERS
%; US$; non-inflation adjusted; 1965/1980/1995/2012
1965-1980(15y) 1980-1995 (15y) 1995-2012 (17 yrs)
10 Year
10 YEAR NZ F&B EXPORT VALUE BY SUPER-REGION
US$m; 2002-2012 CAGR Absolute
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1. Other is a mix of remote islands, cruise ships, etc. and is too small to enumerate but is included in total; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis iFAB 2014
EMERGING
… food bowl of Asia-Pacific
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New Zealand has free trade agreements – either in place or proposed – with most of the Asia-Pacific region
Existing
Proposed
Source: Wikipedia (public domain) with Coriolis additions using MFAT data iFAB 2014
New Zealand exports food and beverages to a wide range of destinations; however Asia is now the largest
destination region taking ~40% and China is the largest single destination
China $3.2
E/SE USA $2.3
Asia Australia $2.2
~40%
Japan $1.4
Europe, $2,891 , United Kingdom $0.8
14% Malaysia $0.6
Taiwan $0.5
E Asia, $6,071 ,
29% Saudi Arabia $0.5
South Korea $0.5
N America Hong Kong SAR $0.5
$2,652 13% Indonesia $0.5
Total F&B
Germany $0.5
Exports
Philippines $0.4
US$21b Singapore $0.4
United Arab Emirates $0.4
Australia/Pacifi Venezuela $0.4
SE Asia, $2,527 c $2,609 12% Thailand $0.4
, 12% Algeria $0.3
Netherlands $0.3
C/S America
$944 4% Canada $0.3
NA/ME/CA
$2,299 11% Egypt $0.3
Viet Nam $0.2
Indian Sub. $411 Sri Lanka $0.2
2%
Mexico $0.2
SS Africa
$543 3% Belgium $0.2
Other $3.4
NA/ME/CA = North Africa/Middle East/Central Asia; Note: totals may not add due to rounding; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis iFAB 2014
New Zealand is in the middle of a fundamental transition from feeding Westerners to feeding the Asia-Pacific
region
3%
2% 0% 7%
11% 12%
7% 3% 16% 19%
0% 24% 22% 23%
3% 5% 29% E Asia
8%
9%
4% 6%
10% 4%
8%
9% 10%
10% 12% 11%
15% 6%
27% 5% 6%
5% 12% SE Asia
8% 6% 7%
7% 7%
8% 8% 8%
7% North Africa/
20% 11% Middle East/
8%
Central Asia
9% 9%
11%
23%
9% Other
22%
76% 23% 15%
21% Australia/
18% 12%
Oceania
53%
44%
13% N America
34%
30% 29%
25% 23% 23%
14% Europe
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2012
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Peers suggest ample capacity to increase or intensify food production volume for the foreseeable future,
though this will likely require land use change and more irrigation
Italy 27,500
France 26,000 New Zealand
Denmark 43,094 Japan 25,920 20,000 Denmark
1
New Zealand 10,770
Netherlands 5,650
Switzerland 41,284 Denmark 4,490 10,000 Ireland
Slovakia 1,830 Switzerland
UK 1,700
Belgium 400 -
Netherlands 37,354
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
Switzerland 250
Ireland -
1. available data is consented to irrigate not actually irrigated; Source: World Bank; CIA World Fact Book; UN AgStat database; Coriolis analysis iFAB 2014
Peers suggest many food & beverages categories have strong growth upside
AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION VALUE HECTARES IN FRUIT & VEGETABLES GRAPE AREA BY COUNTRY/REGION
US$m; 2011 ha; 000; 2012 ha; actual; 2012
Chile $6,340
France 760,805
Norway $5,240 2,177
Source: UN FAO AgStat; UN FAO FishStat FIGIS database; USDA Census of Agriculture; Wine BC; Coriolis analysis iFAB 2014
Peers suggest New Zealand has significant intensification upside
AREA VOLUME PER FARMED AREA FOOD PRODUCED1 F&B EXPORT VALUE
km2; 000; 2013 Tonnes/km2; 2011 Tonnes; million; 2011 US$m; 20122
New Zealand 275 New Zealand 85 New Zealand 23 New Zealand $20,955
10x
Slovakia 49 Slovakia 121 Slovakia 6 Slovakia $4,489
1. Excludes Seafood; 2. Italy uses 2011; Source: United Nations AgStat database; UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis iFAB 2014
New Zealand is a long term protein play
Wild Capture
Aquaculture
2.0 Other
Venison Singapore 166
Pork
Chicken
Lamb & mutton
Beef
1.5
Netherlands 79
1.0 Denmark 48
0.5 Ireland 14
New Zealand 5
-
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Note: 2011 is latest data available from UN; Source: UN FAO AgStat database; UN FAO FishStat database; CIA World Fact Book; Coriolis classification and analysis iFAB 2014
GREAT
… at producing food and beverages
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Food & beverage exports have been core to New Zealand’s exports for over 100 years and the country has
extremely high “revealed comparative advantage”
F&B AS A PERCENT OF NZ EXPORT VALUE INDEX OF REVEALED COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE (RCA) IN FOOD
% of total merchandise exports; 1880-2012 Relative index or scale; 1=neutral; 2012
Select 2.35
Asia-Pacific Indonesia 2.18
1.84
16% Malaysia 1.54
1.28
Philippines 1.10
0.39
China 0.36
0.26
Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) is
Oman 0.26
0.17 an index used in international economics for
South Korea 0.15 calculating the relative advantage or
0.12 disadvantage of a certain country in a
Japan 0.07 certain class of goods or services.
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2012 0.06
Brunei 0.01
0.00
Source: Statistics NZ 1880,1990,1920, NZ trade and shipping 1940, NZ Exports 1960, UN Comtrade 1980,2000,2012; Béla Balassa (1965); Wikipedia; Coriolis analysis iFAB 2014
The New Zealand F&B industry is export oriented relative to peers
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New Zealand’s success in food & beverages in underpinned by fundamental long term drivers
Nutraceuticals
Strong food safety standards & systems
Supportive
Robust biosecurity & border control Innovative Foods
Government Specialty Grains
Respected sustainable fisheries management
Beverages
iFAB 2014
As a result of being an island nation with strong biosecurity controls, New Zealand is free of a wide range of
animal diseases; this leads to higher yields and excellent market access
Pigs - Foot-and-mouth
Porcine Reproductive & Respiratory Syndrome
Porcine Brucellosis
Classical Swine fever
* Full list available at MPI http://www.biosecurity.govt.nz/pests/surv-mgmt/surv/freedom; Source: MPI; Coriolis analysis iFAB 2014
Global benchmarking consistently shows high value in “Brand New Zealand”
Canada Switzerland
Sweden Canada
Switzerland Japan
Australia Sweden
Netherlands Finland
Austria Norway
Ireland Denmark
Belgium France
Japan Singapore
Italy Maldives
France Austria
Spain Netherlands
Portugal Spain
100
SAFE 80
Japan
Lower cost 60
& trusted
40
EU
NEW ZEALAND 20 Scandinavia
& Australia
0
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
-20
USA -40
-60
Asia (excl. China)
-80
China
UNSAFE
-100
CHEAP EXPENSIVE
Source: various; photo credit (fair use; low resolution; complete product/brand for illustrative purposes); Coriolis analysis iFAB 2014
SUPPORTIVE
… business ecosystem
iFAB 2014
Multiple global surveys show NZ Inc. leading in international business friendly rankings
iFAB 2014
New Zealand food & beverage sectors have strong and robust industry representation
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New Zealand has a long history of government-funded R&D and science in the food industry
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The New Zealand Food Innovation Network provides open access commercial scale pilot plants
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ATTRACTING
… investment
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The New Zealand F&B industry has attracted investment from a wide range of global leaders
EUROPE
AMERICAS
AUSTRALIA
ASIA
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New investors continue to arrive in New Zealand
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The New Zealand F&B industry has wide ranging ownership; 25% of the industry by turnover is foreign owned
Iwi 1%
Private
12% Listed 2%
Charity 0%
Australia 6%
Canada 1%
USA 4% UK 1%
Swiss 1%
Russia 0%
Japan 7%
Farmers
59%
Hong Kong 1%
Singapore 1%
China 0%
Malaysia 0%
Thailand 0%
TOTAL = NZ$44.4b
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LEARN
… more
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Further information on all the major sectors of the New Zealand food & beverage industry is available in the
other reports in this series
Other reports, including those from previous years, are available on the MBIE or Coriolis website…
www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/food-beverage/information-project/ www.coriolisresearch.com/reports/
iFAB 2014
For more information or assistance in investing in the New Zealand food and beverage industry contact:
- Biosecurity www.mpi.govt.nz/AboutMPI/ContactUs/tabid/94/Default.aspx
- Agricultural production
- Food safety
iFAB 2014
The Food and Beverage Information Project
iFAB 2014
The Food & Beverage Information Project is the first What is the purpose of the food and beverage information
comprehensive overview of the state of New Zealand’s Food & project?
Beverage (F&B) industry. Part of the Government’s Business
Growth Agenda (BGA), it is an integrated programme of work The project pulls together the available information on the food
focusing on the six key inputs businesses need to succeed, grow and beverage industry into one place, in a form which is familiar
and add jobs; export markets, capital markets, innovation, skilled and useful to business. The reports contain analysis and
and safe workplaces, natural resources and infrastructure. interpretation of trends and opportunities to materially assist
with business strategy and government policy.
Essentially, the BGA Export Markets goal will require lifting the
ratio of exports from today’s rate of 30% of GDP to 40% by The information will be of vital use to businesses, investors,
2025. This equates to doubling exports in real terms (or tripling government, and research institutions as the industry expands
exports in nominal non-inflation adjusted terms). This in turn and diversifies. This industry view will be very useful to
equates to achieving a 7% per annum growth rate over the next government, enabling better dialogue and the opportunity to
twelve years. address issues collectively.
This five-year project analyses the main sectors in F&B, including What benefit will this bring to businesses?
dairy, meat, seafood, produce, processed foods, and beverages,
as well as providing an overview of how the industry is fairing in The Project will have many uses for businesses. These include:
our major markets. It also conducts in-depth sector reviews on a
rotating basis. The information is updated annually and feedback – As a base of market intelligence to enable business to be
from users shows the project is acting as a vital tool for much more targeted in their own market research
companies looking to expand and grow exports. – Reviewing and informing offshore market development
(including export and investment) strategies
Why Food & Beverage? – Assisting in identifying areas of innovation and R&D for
the future
The Food & Beverage industry is vitally important to the New – Identifying strategic partners and collaborators
Zealand economy. Food & Beverage accounts for 56% of our – Enabling a company to benchmark performance with that
merchandise trade exports and one in five jobs across the wider of its competitors
value chain. In addition, F&B acts as a vital ambassador for the – Monitoring industry activity
country, being in most cases the first exposure global consumers – Gaining a better understanding of their own industry
get to “Brand New Zealand.” sector
– Identifying internal capability needs or external inputs
New Zealand’s F&B exports are growing strongly and the
country’s export performance is strong and improving relative to How will government use the reports?
peers. In the 15 years leading up to 2010, New Zealand's food and
beverage exports grew at a compound annual rate of 7% per This information will provide much greater insight into the
annum. So one way to look at the challenge is to ask – can we industry, which is useful for a range of policy developments, from
continue to grow our food & beverage exports at the same rate? regulatory frameworks to investment in science and skills and
To understand if this is possible we need to know what has been facilitating access to international markets. In particular, a single
driving our success. source of factual information will enable government agencies to
better coordinate their efforts across the system and be more
responsive to addressing industry issues.
Coriolis is a boutique management consulting
firm that focuses on food, consumer FIRM STRATEGY & OPERATIONS:
packaged goods, retailing and foodservice. We help clients develop their own strategy for
growing sales and profits. We have a strong
Coriolis advises clients on strategy, bias towards growth driven by new products,
operations, organization, and mergers and new channels and new markets.
acquisitions. We develop practical, fact-based
insights grounded in the real world that guide MARKET ENTRY
our clients decisions and actions. Founded in We help clients identify which countries are
1999, Coriolis is based in Auckland, New the most attractive – from a consumer, a
Zealand and works on projects across the competition and a channel point-of-view.
Asia Pacific region. Following this we assist in developing a plan
for market entry and growth.
ABOUT CORIOLIS’ SERVICES
WHAT WE DO VALUE CREATION
We help clients create value through revenue
We help our clients assemble the facts growth and cost reduction.
needed to guide their big decisions. We make
practical recommendations. Where TARGET IDENTIFICATION
appropriate, we work with them to make We help clients identify high potential
change happen. acquisition targets by profiling industries,
screening companies and devising a plan to
HOW WE DO IT approach targets.